The secret to scientific discoveries? Making mistakes | Phil Plait

翻译人员: jacks peng 校对人员: Hanlin Wang

Now, people have a lot of misconceptions about science --

人们对于科学有很多误解——

about how it works and what it is.

关于科学原理和科学的含义。

A big one is that science is just a big old pile of facts.

一个最大的误解是， 科学只是一大堆陈旧的事实。

But that's not true -- that's not even the goal of science.

但这并不正确 ——这甚至不是科学的目的。

Science is a process.

科学是一个过程。

It's a way of thinking.

它是一种思考方式。

Gathering facts is just a piece of it, but it's not the goal.

收集事实只是其中一步， 但并非目的。

The ultimate goal of science is to understand objective reality

科学的最终目的 是用我们所知道的最优方法

the best way we know how,

来理解客观事实，

and that's based on evidence.

即要以证据为基础。

The problem here is that people are flawed.

问题在于，人类是有缺陷的。

We can be fooled --

我们可能被愚弄——

we're really good at fooling ourselves.

我们真的很擅长欺骗自己。

And so baked into this process is a way of minimizing our own bias.

所以，融入科学的探究过程， 是一种将偏见最小化的方法。

So sort of boiled down more than is probably useful,

总结起来说可能更好，

here's how this works.

科学的原理如下。

If you want to do some science,

如果你想要做点科学研究，

what you want to do is you want to observe something ...

观察一些事物…

say, "The sky is blue. Hey, I wonder why?"

举例来说，“天空是蓝的， 我很好奇为什么是这样？”

You question it.

你提出疑问。

The next thing you do is you come up with an idea that may explain it:

下一步你要做的 是提出一个可能的解释：

a hypothesis.

一个假设。

Well, you know what? Oceans are blue.

首先，海水是蓝的。

Maybe the sky is reflecting the colors from the ocean.

也许天空反射了海洋的蓝色。

Great, but now you have to test it

很好，但现在你得检验它，

so you predict what that might mean.

去推测这意味着什么。

Your prediction would be,

你的预测可能是，

"Well, if the sky is reflecting the ocean color,

“哦，如果天空反射了海洋的颜色，

it will be bluer on the coasts

那么海水在海边的颜色

than it will be in the middle of the country."

要比在一个国家的内陆部分更蓝。”

OK, that's fair enough,

好的，这很合理，

but you've got to test that prediction

但你得验证那个预测，

so you get on a plane, you leave Denver on a nice gray day,

于是你坐上飞机，在一个 灰蒙蒙的好日子里离开丹佛，

飞到洛杉矶，望向天空， 天空映衬着壮丽的蔚蓝色。

you fly to LA, you look up and the sky is gloriously blue.

Hooray, your thesis is proven.

太好了，你的论点被证明了。

But is it really? No.

但真是这样吗？不是。

You've made one observation.

你做了一个观察。

You need to think about your hypothesis, think about how to test it

你得对这个假设进行斟酌， 思考如何检验它，

and do more than just one.

还要重复多次。

Maybe you could go to a different part of the country

也许你可以去这个国家的其他地方，

or a different part of the year

或者在一年的不同时间去，

and see what the weather's like then.

看看那时的天气如何。

Another good idea is to talk to other people.

另一个好主意是和其他人聊聊。

They have different ideas, different perspectives,

他们有不同的想法，不同的视角，

and they can help you.

他们可以帮助到你。

This is what we call peer review.

这就是我们所称的同行评议。

And in fact that will probably also save you a lot of money and a lot of time,

事实上，这也会帮你省下 很大一笔钱和时间，

不必只为了看看天气两头飞。

flying coast-to-coast just to check the weather.

Now, what happens if your hypothesis does a decent job but not a perfect job?

那么如果你的假设很好， 但不是很完美怎么办？

Well, that's OK,

这不是大问题，

因为你可以对它进行一点修正，

because what you can do is you can modify it a little bit

and then go through this whole process again --

然后再把整个流程走一遍——

make predictions, test them --

做预测，检验它——

and as you do that over and over again, you will hone this idea.

随着你一遍又一遍地重复， 你的假设便会被优化。

And if it gets good enough,

如果它变得足够好了，

it may be accepted by the scientific community,

可能会被科学界采纳，

at least provisionally,

至少暂时性地，

as a good explanation of what's going on,

作为一种对此自然现象的合理解释，

at least until a better idea

直到有更好的观点

or some contradictory evidence comes along.

或者出现了一些与之相矛盾的证据。

Now, part of this process is admitting when you're wrong.

科学探究过程的一部分 就是承认你的错误。

And that can be really, really hard.

这真的非常、非常难。

Science has its strengths and weaknesses

科学有其优势和不足，

and they depend on this.

而它依赖于错误。

One of the strengths of science is that it's done by people,

科学的优点之一是， 它是由人来完成的，

and it's proven itself to do a really good job.

长久以来我们获得的 科学成就也毋庸置疑。

We understand the universe pretty well because of science.

因为科学，我们对宇宙 有非常不错的认知。

One of science's weaknesses is that it's done by people,

而科学的一个不足也恰恰是， 它是由人来完成的，

and we bring a lot of baggage along with us when we investigate things.

当我们调查研究的时候， 会带着很多包袱。

We are egotistical,

我们是任性主观的，

we are stubborn, we're superstitious,

我们固执且迷信，

we're tribal, we're humans --

我们是群聚动物，我们是人类——

these are all human traits and scientists are humans.

这些都是人的特点，而科学家也是人。

And so we have to be aware of that when we're studying science

所以在研究和做出假设时，

我们要意识到这一点。

and when we're trying to develop our theses.

But part of this whole thing,

但这整件事的一部分，

part of this scientific process,

整个科学过程的一部分，

part of the scientific method,

整个科学方法的一部分，

is admitting when you're wrong.

在于要承认自己在哪里犯了错。

I know, I've been there.

我曾经有过这样的经历。

Many years ago I was working on Hubble Space Telescope,

许多年前，我在 哈勃太空望远镜项目工作，

and a scientist I worked with came to me with some data,

有个一起共事的 科学家带着数据来找我，

and he said, "I think there may be a picture

他说：“我认为这个数据表明

of a planet orbiting another star in this data."

可能有颗行星围绕另一颗恒星转。”

We had not had any pictures taken of planets orbiting other stars yet,

人们当时还没有拍到行星 绕其他恒星转的照片，

so if this were true,

所以如果这个是真的，

then this would be the first one

就会是世界上的首次发现，

and we would be the ones who found it.

并且我们就是发现它的人。

That's a big deal.

这可了不得。

I was very excited,

我非常激动，

so I just dug right into this data.

所以我就深入研究了这些数据。

I spent a long time trying to figure out if this thing were a planet or not.

我花了很长的时间去搞清楚 这个东西是不是行星。

The problem is planets are faint and stars are bright,

问题是行星很暗，恒星很亮，

so trying to get the signal out of this data

所以试图从这些数据中获取信号

was like trying to hear a whisper in a heavy metal concert --

就像在重金属音乐会上听到耳语一样。

it was really hard.

真是非常难。

I tried everything I could,

我想尽了一切办法，

but after a month of working on this,

但忙了一个月后，

I came to a realization ... couldn't do it.

我意识到…我做不到。

I had to give up.

我不得不放弃。

And I had to tell this other scientist,

我得告诉其他科学家，

"The data's too messy.

“数据太混乱了，

We can't say whether this is a planet or not."

我们无法确定这是不是行星。”

And that was hard.

承认这件事真的非常难。

Then later on we got follow-up observations with Hubble,

后来我们用哈勃望远镜做了后续观测，

and it showed that it wasn't a planet.

结果发现它并不是一颗行星，

It was a background star or galaxy, something like that.

只是个类似于背景恒星或星系的东西。

Well, not to get too technical, but that sucked.

我不想说得太专业， 但那真是太糟糕了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I was really unhappy about this.

我对此真的非常失落。

But that's part of it.

但就这是科学的一部分。

You have to say, "Look, you know, we can't do this with the data we have."

你不得不承认，“看吧， 我们无法用现有数据进行分析。”

And then I had to face up to the fact

随后我还得面对

that even the follow-up data showed we were wrong.

后续的数据证明 我们是错的这个事实。

Emotionally I was pretty unhappy.

情感上，我非常失落。

But if a scientist is doing their job correctly,

但如果一个科学家正确地进行了研究，

being wrong is not so bad

犯了错误并不是坏事，

because that means there's still more stuff out there --

因为这意味着 在此之外还有更多事物——

more things to figure out.

更多的东西等待着我们去探索。

Scientists don't love being wrong but we love puzzles,

科学家不喜欢犯错，但我们喜欢谜题，

and the universe is the biggest puzzle of them all.

而宇宙就是最大的迷题。

Now having said that,

话虽如此，

if you have a piece and it doesn't fit no matter how you move it,

如果你有一小块拼图， 但怎么摆弄都拼不上，

jamming it in harder isn't going to help.

硬插进去并没有用。

There's going to be a time when you have to let go of your idea

如果你想要理解更大的概念，

if you want to understand the bigger picture.

就得放弃目前所持有的观点。

The price of doing science is admitting when you're wrong,

科学研究的代价就是 当你犯错时要承认，

but the payoff is the best there is:

但这件事的回报是最好的：

knowledge and understanding.

知识和理解。

我可以给你上千个科学案例，

And I can give you a thousand examples of this in science,

but there's one I really like.

但其中有一个我真的很喜欢。

It has to do with astronomy,

这当然与天文学有关，

and it was a question that had been plaguing astronomers

这个问题一直困扰了天文学家

literally for centuries.

好几个世纪。

When you look at the Sun, it seems special.

太阳看起来很特别。

It is the brightest object in the sky,

它是天空中最亮的物体，

but having studied astronomy, physics, chemistry, thermodynamics for centuries,

但是经过了几个世纪的天文学， 物理学，化学，热力学研究后，

we learned something very important about it.

我们了解到了一些 关于太阳的重要信息。

它不再那么特别了。

It's not that special.

It's a star just like millions of other stars.

它不过跟其他数百万个恒星一样。

But that raises an interesting question.

但这又引申出了一个有趣的问题。

If the Sun is a star

如果太阳是恒星，

and the Sun has planets,

并且太阳有行星，

do these other stars have planets?

其他恒星会有行星吗？

Well, like I said with my own failure in the "planet" I was looking for,

像我提到的在寻找“行星”上的失败经历，

finding them is super hard,

找到它们真的非常难，

but scientists tend to be pretty clever people

但科学家往往非常聪明，

and they used a lot of different techniques

他们会应用很多不同的技术

观察恒星。

and started observing stars.

And over the decades

几十年后，

they started finding some things that were pretty interesting,

他们开始发现一些真正有趣的东西，

right on the thin, hairy edge of what they were able to detect.

就在他们能够探测到的 薄而粗糙的边缘。

But time and again, it was shown to be wrong.

但事实一再证明，这是错的。

That all changed in 1991.

事态在1991年才完全改变。

A couple of astronomers --

几位天文学家——

Alexander Lyne -- Andrew Lyne, pardon me --

亚历山大·莱恩—— 安德鲁·莱恩，对不起——

and Matthew Bailes,

和马修·贝尔斯，

had a huge announcement.

发布了一项重大声明。

They had found a planet orbiting another star.

他们发现了一个绕着 另一颗恒星旋转的行星。

And not just any star, but a pulsar,

不是随便一颗恒星，而是脉冲星，

and this is the remnant of a star that has previously exploded.

这是之前爆炸过的恒星的残骸。

It's blasting out radiation.

它在爆炸时释放了大量辐射。

This is the last place in the universe you would expect to find a planet,

这是宇宙中你最不可能 找到行星的地方。

but they had very methodically looked at this pulsar,

但他们非常系统地 观察了这颗脉冲星，

and they detected the gravitational tug of this planet as it orbited the pulsar.

当这颗行星绕脉冲星旋转时， 他们探测到了它的引力。

It looked really good.

这看起来真的很棒。

The first planet orbiting another star had been found ...

第一颗绕另一颗恒星 运行的行星被发现了…

except not so much.

只是没有那么多。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

After they made the announcement,

在他们发布公告后，

a bunch of other astronomers commented on it,

其他一些天文学家对此发表了评论，

and so they went back and looked at their data

于是他们仔细地回去查看数据，

并意识到自己犯了 一个非常尴尬的错误。

and realized they had made a very embarrassing mistake.

They had not accounted for some very subtle characteristics

他们没有考虑到地球绕太阳的运动中

of the Earth's motion around the Sun,

一些非常不明显的特征，

which affected how they measured this planet going around the pulsar.

这些特征影响了他们测量这颗行星 绕脉冲星运行的方式。

And it turns out that when they did account for it correctly,

结果，当他们做了正确的计算时，

poof -- their planet disappeared.

糟糕——他们的行星消失了。

It wasn't real.

它其实并不存在的。

So Andrew Lyne had a very formidable task.

安德鲁·莱恩有个非常艰巨的任务，

He had to admit this.

他得承认错误。

So in 1992 at the American Astronomical Society meeting,

于是在1992年美国天文学会会议，

which is one of the largest gatherings of astronomers on the planet,

这个全世界最大的天文学会议上，

he stood up and announced that he had made a mistake

他站起来并宣布他犯了个错误，

and that the planet did not exist.

那颗行星并不存在。

And what happened next --

接下来发生的是——

oh, I love this --

太让我激动了——

接下来的一幕很让人难忘。

what happened next was wonderful.

He got an ovation.

他得到了热烈的掌声。

The astronomers weren't angry at him;

天文学家们并没有对他表示愤怒；

they didn't want to chastise him.

他们不想谴责他，

They praised him for his honesty and his integrity.

而是赞扬了他的诚实和正直。

I love that!

我非常喜欢这一点！

Scientists are people.

科学家也是人。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And it gets better!

事情在变得越来越好！

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Lyne steps off the podium.

莱恩从讲台上走下来后，

The next guy to come up is a man named Aleksander Wolszczan

下一位上台的人是亚历山大·沃尔兹森，

He takes the microphone and says,

他拿起麦克风说道，

"Yeah, so Lyne's team didn't find a pulsar planet,

“很遗憾，莱恩的团队没有发现脉冲星，

but my team found not just one

但我的团队发现了不止一个，

but two planets orbiting a different pulsar.

而是两颗行星围绕不同的脉冲星运行。

We knew about the problem that Lyne had,

我们知道莱恩存在的问题，

we checked for it, and yeah, ours are real."

我们仔细核实了自己的结果， 我们的结果是真的。”

And it turns out he was right.

结果他是对的。

And in fact, a few months later,

事实上，几个月后，

they found a third planet orbiting this pulsar

他们发现了第三颗绕着 这颗脉冲星的行星，

and it was the first exoplanet system ever found --

这是迄今为止发现的 第一个系外行星系统——

what we call alien worlds -- exoplanets.

我们称之为外星世界——系外行星。

That to me is just wonderful.

这对我来说太棒了。

At that point the floodgates were opened.

从那时起，就好像 泄洪阀门被打开了一样。

In 1995 a planet was found around a star more like the Sun,

1995年，一个行星被发现 绕着类似太阳的恒星运行，

and then we found another and another.

随后我们发现了一个又一个。

This is an image of an actual planet orbiting an actual star.

这是一颗围绕恒星运行的行星图像。

We kept getting better at it.

我们做得越来越好。

We started finding them by the bucketload.

我们开始成批成批地找到它们，

We started finding thousands of them.

数量达到了几千个。

We built observatories specifically designed to look for them.

我们建造了专门用来 寻找它们的天文台。

And now we know of thousands of them.

利用这些天文台， 我们发现了数千颗行星。

We even know of planetary systems.

我们甚至了解了行星系统。

That is actual data, animated, showing four planets orbiting another star.

这是真实的数据，动画显示了 围绕另一颗恒星运行的四颗行星。

This is incredible. Think about that.

真是难以置信，想想看吧。

For all of human history,

纵观人类历史，

you could count all the known planets in the universe on two hands --

用两只手就可以算出 宇宙中所有的行星——

nine -- eight?

9——8个？

Nine? Eight -- eight.

9个？8——8个。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Eh.

呃。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But now we know they're everywhere.

但现在我们知道它们到处都是。

Every star --

每个恒星——

for every star you see in the sky there could be three, five, ten planets.

每个你在天空看到的星星， 都可能拥有3，5，10个行星。

The sky is filled with them.

它们布满了天空。

We think that planets may outnumber stars in the galaxy.

我们认为行星的数量可能 超过星系中的恒星。

This is a profound statement,

这是一个意义重大的结论，

and it was made because of science.

这全要归功于科学。

And it wasn't made just because of science and the observatories and the data;

得出这个结论不止要归功于 科学研究和数据观测；

it was made because of the scientists who built the observatories,

能得出这个结论要归功于 建造了天文台的科学家，

who took the data,

他们得到了数据，

他们犯了错误并承认了错误，

who made the mistakes and admitted them

and then let other scientists build on their mistakes

然后让其他科学家 在他们的错误之上前进，

so that they could do what they do

所以他们可以做到力所能及的事，

and figure out where our place is in the universe.

并去弄清楚我们在宇宙中的位置。

That is how you find the truth.

这就是你发现真相的方式。

Science is at its best when it dares to be human.

当科学敢于为人时， 它就处于最佳状态。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause and cheers)

（鼓掌和欢呼）