The secret to scientific discoveries? Making mistakes | Phil Plait

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: 易帆 余

Now, people have a lot of misconceptions about science --

大家對於科學有許多誤解——

about how it works and what it is.

誤解了它怎麼運作， 及它到底是什麼。

A big one is that science is just a big old pile of facts.

其中一個大誤解是： 科學只是一大堆古老的事實。

But that's not true -- that's not even the goal of science.

但，那不是真的—— 那甚至不是科學的目的。

Science is a process.

科學是一個過程。

It's a way of thinking.

它是一種思考方式。

Gathering facts is just a piece of it, but it's not the goal.

收集事實只是科學的一部分， 但不是科學的目標。

The ultimate goal of science is to understand objective reality

科學的終極目標 是要了解客觀的現實，

the best way we know how,

且要用我們所知最好的方式， 即以證據為基礎的方式。

and that's based on evidence.

The problem here is that people are flawed.

這裡的問題是，人不完美。

We can be fooled --

我們可能會被欺騙—— 我們真的很擅長欺騙自己。

we're really good at fooling ourselves.

And so baked into this process is a way of minimizing our own bias.

所以，在這個過程中，我們要 想辦法把我們自身偏見減到最小。

So sort of boiled down more than is probably useful,

所以，歸結簡化來說，

here's how this works.

科學運作的方式如下。

If you want to do some science,

如果你想要做科學，

what you want to do is you want to observe something ...

你需要做的，是去觀察某樣事物……

say, "The sky is blue. Hey, I wonder why?"

比如：「天是藍色的。 嘿，我很納悶為什麼？」

You question it.

你要質疑它。

The next thing you do is you come up with an idea that may explain it:

接下來，你要做的是 提出一種可能的解釋：

a hypothesis.

一個假設。

你知道嗎？海洋是藍色的。

Well, you know what? Oceans are blue.

Maybe the sky is reflecting the colors from the ocean.

也許天空會反射海洋的顏色。

Great, but now you have to test it

很棒，但現在你就得檢定它，

so you predict what that might mean.

所以，你要預測它可能的意涵。

Your prediction would be,

你的預測會是：「嗯， 如果天空會反射海洋的顏色，

"Well, if the sky is reflecting the ocean color,

it will be bluer on the coasts

那麼在海岸上方的天空會比較藍，

than it will be in the middle of the country."

在內陸上方的天空不會那麼藍。」

OK, that's fair enough,

好，這個說法很合理，

but you've got to test that prediction

但你得要檢定你的預測，

so you get on a plane, you leave Denver on a nice gray day,

所以，你坐上飛機， 你在一個灰暗的日子離開丹佛，

you fly to LA, you look up and the sky is gloriously blue.

你飛到洛杉磯， 向上看，天空非常藍。

Hooray, your thesis is proven.

喔耶，你的論點得到證明了。

But is it really? No.

但真的是這樣嗎？不是。

You've made one observation.

你做的是一次觀察。

You need to think about your hypothesis, think about how to test it

你得要想想你的假設， 想想要如何檢定它，

and do more than just one.

且要做不只一次檢定。

Maybe you could go to a different part of the country

也許你可以到全國不同的地區，

or a different part of the year

或選擇一年中的不同時期，

and see what the weather's like then.

看看到時的天氣如何。

Another good idea is to talk to other people.

還有一個好方法，就是跟別人談談。

They have different ideas, different perspectives,

他們會有不同的想法、不同的觀點，

and they can help you.

他們能協助你。

This is what we call peer review.

這就是我們所謂的「同行評審」。

And in fact that will probably also save you a lot of money and a lot of time,

事實上，這麼做可能還可以 幫你省下很多時間與金錢，

不用只為了確認天氣 就從這一岸飛到那一岸。

flying coast-to-coast just to check the weather.

Now, what happens if your hypothesis does a decent job but not a perfect job?

如果你的假設還不錯， 但不完美，該怎麼辦？

Well, that's OK,

沒關係的，

because what you can do is you can modify it a little bit

因為你還可以再稍微修正它，

and then go through this whole process again --

接著再重新進行一次 這整個過程——

make predictions, test them --

做預測，檢定它們——

and as you do that over and over again, you will hone this idea.

隨著你不斷重覆這個過程， 這個想法也會被不斷精煉。

And if it gets good enough,

如果它能被修到夠好，

it may be accepted by the scientific community,

科學圈就有可能接受它，

at least provisionally,

至少暫時接受它，

as a good explanation of what's going on,

先將它視為該現象的最佳解釋，

at least until a better idea

至少可以持續到更好的想法

or some contradictory evidence comes along.

或是矛盾的證據出現。

Now, part of this process is admitting when you're wrong.

承認你的錯誤， 是這個過程的一部分。

And that can be really, really hard.

要承認錯誤可能非常非常困難。

Science has its strengths and weaknesses

科學有它的優點以及缺點，

and they depend on this.

它們都要仰賴承認錯誤。

One of the strengths of science is that it's done by people,

科學的優點之一， 就是它要由人來進行，

and it's proven itself to do a really good job.

且它已經證明了它是很有用的。

We understand the universe pretty well because of science.

我們能如此了解這個宇宙， 要歸功於科學。

One of science's weaknesses is that it's done by people,

科學的缺點之一， 就是它要由人來進行，

and we bring a lot of baggage along with us when we investigate things.

當我們在調查研究事物時， 我們還隨身帶了很多包袱。

We are egotistical,

我們是自我本位的，

we are stubborn, we're superstitious,

我們很固執，我們會迷信，

we're tribal, we're humans --

我們是群聚生物，我們是人類——

these are all human traits and scientists are humans.

這些都是人的特性，而科學都是人。

And so we have to be aware of that when we're studying science

所以，當我們在研究科學、 當我們在試圖發展我們的論點時，

and when we're trying to develop our theses.

我們必須要意識到這一點。

But part of this whole thing,

但，這一切，

part of this scientific process,

這個科學過程，

part of the scientific method,

這種科學方法，

is admitting when you're wrong.

有部分會涉及到承認你的錯誤。

I know, I've been there.

我知道，我走過這條路。

Many years ago I was working on Hubble Space Telescope,

許多年前，我在用 哈伯太空望遠鏡做研究，

and a scientist I worked with came to me with some data,

和我合作的一位科學家 拿了一些資料來找我，

and he said, "I think there may be a picture

他說：「我認為在這些資料當中

of a planet orbiting another star in this data."

有一張行星繞著 另一個恆星轉動的照片。」

We had not had any pictures taken of planets orbiting other stars yet,

我們還沒有拍到過任何行星 繞著其他恆星轉動的照片，

so if this were true,

所以，如果他說的是真的，

then this would be the first one

這就會是第一張照片，

and we would be the ones who found it.

而我們則是發現它的人。

That's a big deal.

那是很了不起的。

I was very excited,

我非常興奮，

so I just dug right into this data.

所以我馬上埋首研究這些資料。

I spent a long time trying to figure out if this thing were a planet or not.

我花了很長的時間，試圖判斷 這個東西到底是不是行星。

The problem is planets are faint and stars are bright,

問題是，行星是暗淡的， 恆星是明亮的，

so trying to get the signal out of this data

所以，試著從這些資料中找出訊號，

was like trying to hear a whisper in a heavy metal concert --

就如同試著在重金屬音樂會上 聽見耳語一樣——

it was really hard.

非常困難。

I tried everything I could,

我把能試的方法都試過了，

but after a month of working on this,

但在這件事上投入了 一個月的時間後，

I came to a realization ... couldn't do it.

我漸漸了解到……我做不到。

I had to give up.

我得要放棄。

And I had to tell this other scientist,

我得要告訴這位科學家：

"The data's too messy.

「這些資料太亂了。 我們無法確定那是不是行星。」

We can't say whether this is a planet or not."

And that was hard.

這很不容易。

Then later on we got follow-up observations with Hubble,

後來，我們用哈伯望遠鏡 取得了後續的觀察，

and it showed that it wasn't a planet.

結果顯示那並不是行星。

It was a background star or galaxy, something like that.

那是一顆背景星，或銀河之類的。

Well, not to get too technical, but that sucked.

我不想用太技術的說法， 但，那實在太鳥了。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

I was really unhappy about this.

我對這件事感到很不高興。

But that's part of it.

但，那就是其中的一部分。

You have to say, "Look, you know, we can't do this with the data we have."

你必須要說：「聽著，你要知道， 我們用手上的資料是做不到的。」

And then I had to face up to the fact

接著，我要面對的事實就是

that even the follow-up data showed we were wrong.

連後續的資料也顯示我們錯了。

Emotionally I was pretty unhappy.

情緒上，我很不開心。

But if a scientist is doing their job correctly,

但，如果科學家 有把他們的工作做正確，

being wrong is not so bad

犯錯不是那麼不好的事，

because that means there's still more stuff out there --

因為犯錯意味著外頭還有更多東西——

more things to figure out.

等著我們去想通。

Scientists don't love being wrong but we love puzzles,

科學家不喜歡犯錯， 但我們喜歡解謎，

and the universe is the biggest puzzle of them all.

而宇宙正是最大的謎。

Now having said that,

話說回來，

if you have a piece and it doesn't fit no matter how you move it,

如果你有一片拼圖， 不論你怎麼移動它都不吻合，

jamming it in harder isn't going to help.

用蠻力把它卡進去並沒有幫助。

There's going to be a time when you have to let go of your idea

有些時候，你得要放下你的想法，

if you want to understand the bigger picture.

才有可能了解更宏觀的大局。

The price of doing science is admitting when you're wrong,

做科學的代價就是承認你的錯誤，

but the payoff is the best there is:

但得到的報酬是沒得比的好：

knowledge and understanding.

知識和了解。

And I can give you a thousand examples of this in science,

我有一千個例子可以說明這一點，

but there's one I really like.

但其中有一個我很喜歡。

It has to do with astronomy,

它和天文學有關，

and it was a question that had been plaguing astronomers

這個問題一直是天文學家的煩惱，

literally for centuries.

數世紀以來皆是如此。

When you look at the Sun, it seems special.

看著太陽，會覺得它似乎很特別。

It is the brightest object in the sky,

它是天上最明亮的物體，

but having studied astronomy, physics, chemistry, thermodynamics for centuries,

但，數世紀來，我們研究過了 天文學、物理學、化學、熱電學，

we learned something very important about it.

我們學到了關於太陽的重要資訊。

It's not that special.

它並不特別。

It's a star just like millions of other stars.

這個恆星和數百萬個 其他恆星沒有什麼不同。

But that raises an interesting question.

但，這就帶出了一個有趣的問題。

If the Sun is a star

如果太陽是恆星，

and the Sun has planets,

且太陽有行星，

do these other stars have planets?

那麼其他恆星也有行星嗎？

Well, like I said with my own failure in the "planet" I was looking for,

就如同剛才我在我尋找「行星」 失敗的例子中提到的，

finding them is super hard,

要找到行星是超級困難的事，

but scientists tend to be pretty clever people

但，通常科學家都是很聰明的人，

and they used a lot of different techniques

他們會用多種不同的技巧， 並開始觀察恆星。

and started observing stars.

And over the decades

這數十年間，

they started finding some things that were pretty interesting,

他們開始有了一些有趣的發現，

right on the thin, hairy edge of what they were able to detect.

就在他們能夠偵測到的 東西的細薄毛邊上。

But time and again, it was shown to be wrong.

但，又一次，他們錯了。

That all changed in 1991.

1991 年，這一切都改變了。

A couple of astronomers --

幾位天文學家——

Alexander Lyne -- Andrew Lyne, pardon me --

亞力山大林恩—— 對不起，是安德魯林恩——

and Matthew Bailes,

及馬修貝爾斯

had a huge announcement.

有一項重大的宣佈。

They had found a planet orbiting another star.

他們發現了一個行星 繞著另一個恆星運轉。

And not just any star, but a pulsar,

不是任何恆星，而是個脈衝星，

and this is the remnant of a star that has previously exploded.

它是先前爆炸的一個恆星 所留下的殘餘部分。

It's blasting out radiation.

它會大量放出輻射。

This is the last place in the universe you would expect to find a planet,

要在整個宇宙中找行星， 我們最不會去找的地方就是這裡，

but they had very methodically looked at this pulsar,

但，他們有條不紊地 研究這個脈衡星，

and they detected the gravitational tug of this planet as it orbited the pulsar.

在這個行星繞著脈衝星轉動時， 而他們偵測到重力的拉力。

It looked really good.

看起來非常理想。

The first planet orbiting another star had been found ...

第一個繞著另一個恆星 轉動的行星被找到了……

except not so much.

只是，不盡然是如此。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

After they made the announcement,

在他們做出宣佈之後， 一大堆天文學家都對此發表意見，

a bunch of other astronomers commented on it,

and so they went back and looked at their data

所以他們又回頭去看他們的資料，

才發現他們犯了一個很丟臉的錯誤。

and realized they had made a very embarrassing mistake.

They had not accounted for some very subtle characteristics

他們先前沒有考量到

地球繞行太陽的一些細微特徵，

of the Earth's motion around the Sun,

which affected how they measured this planet going around the pulsar.

這就影響到他們對於該行星 繞行脈衝星的測量值。

And it turns out that when they did account for it correctly,

結果發現，當他們把該考量的納入後，

poof -- their planet disappeared.

噗——他們的行星不見了。

It wasn't real.

它不是真的。

So Andrew Lyne had a very formidable task.

所以，安德魯林恩犯了個大錯。

He had to admit this.

他得要承認這一點。

So in 1992 at the American Astronomical Society meeting,

1992 年，在美國天文學會的會議上，

which is one of the largest gatherings of astronomers on the planet,

也就是世界上最大型的 天文學家聚會上，

he stood up and announced that he had made a mistake

他站起來，並宣佈他犯了錯，

and that the planet did not exist.

那個行星並不存在。

And what happened next --

接下來發生的事——

oh, I love this --

喔，我好愛這部分——

what happened next was wonderful.

接下來發生的事很美好。

He got an ovation.

他得到了熱烈的掌聲。

The astronomers weren't angry at him;

天文學家們並不氣他；

they didn't want to chastise him.

他們並不想要懲罰他。

They praised him for his honesty and his integrity.

他們讚美他的誠實以及正直。

I love that!

我好愛這部分！

Scientists are people.

科學家也是人。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And it gets better!

還有更棒的！

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Lyne steps off the podium.

林恩走下了講台。

The next guy to come up is a man named Aleksander Wolszczan

接下來上台的人 是亞歷山大沃爾茲森，

He takes the microphone and says,

他拿起麥克風，說：

"Yeah, so Lyne's team didn't find a pulsar planet,

「是的，所以林恩的團隊 沒有找到脈衡行星，

but my team found not just one

但我的團隊找到了不只一個，

but two planets orbiting a different pulsar.

而是兩個行星， 繞著一個不同的脈衝星運轉。

We knew about the problem that Lyne had,

我們知道林恩的問題，

we checked for it, and yeah, ours are real."

我們檢查過了，且， 是的，我們的是真的。」

And it turns out he was right.

結果，他是對的。

And in fact, a few months later,

事實上，幾個月後，

they found a third planet orbiting this pulsar

他們發現還有第三個行星 在繞行這個脈衝星，

and it was the first exoplanet system ever found --

這是史上第一個被發現的 系外行星系統——

what we call alien worlds -- exoplanets.

我們所謂的外星世界——系外行星。

That to me is just wonderful.

對我來說，那實在很美好。

At that point the floodgates were opened.

在那個時點，開始愈來愈多的研究。

In 1995 a planet was found around a star more like the Sun,

1995 年，有人發現有一個行星

在繞行一個更像太陽的恆星，

and then we found another and another.

接著，我們又發現了一個， 之後再發現了一個。

This is an image of an actual planet orbiting an actual star.

這張圖所呈現的是一個真正的行星 在繞行一個真正的恆星。

We kept getting better at it.

我們越來越上手了。

We started finding them by the bucketload.

我們開始找到一大堆這類行星。

We started finding thousands of them.

我們開始找到 數以千計的這類行星。

We built observatories specifically designed to look for them.

我們建造了專門找 這類行星用的天文台。

And now we know of thousands of them.

現在已知的就有數千個。

We even know of planetary systems.

我們甚至知道行星系統。

That is actual data, animated, showing four planets orbiting another star.

這是真實的資料，用動畫呈現 四個行星繞行另一個恆星。

This is incredible. Think about that.

這很了不起。想想看。

For all of human history,

在整個人類歷史上，

you could count all the known planets in the universe on two hands --

你用兩隻手的手指就可以算出 宇宙中所有已知行星——

nine -- eight?

九個——八個？

Nine? Eight -- eight.

九個？八個——八個。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Eh.

啊。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But now we know they're everywhere.

但，現在我們知道到處都有行星。

Every star --

每個恆星——

for every star you see in the sky there could be three, five, ten planets.

你在天空中看到的每一個恆星， 旁邊都可能有三、五、十個行星。

The sky is filled with them.

天空中滿滿都行星。

We think that planets may outnumber stars in the galaxy.

我們認為，在銀河中， 行星的數量可能超過恆星。

This is a profound statement,

這段陳述相當重要，

and it was made because of science.

因為有科學，才能做出這段陳述。

And it wasn't made just because of science and the observatories and the data;

我們能做出這段陳述，不只是 因為有科學、有天文台、有資料；

it was made because of the scientists who built the observatories,

也因為有科學家去建立天文台，

who took the data,

去使用資料，去犯錯， 並去承認錯誤，

who made the mistakes and admitted them

and then let other scientists build on their mistakes

接著，讓其他科學家 以他們的錯誤為基礎，

so that they could do what they do

去做他們要做的事，

and figure out where our place is in the universe.

研究出我們在宇宙中的地位。

That is how you find the truth.

這就是找到真相的方式。

Science is at its best when it dares to be human.

科學能夠發揮到最好的時候， 就是它敢於當凡人。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause and cheers)

（掌聲與歡呼）