Larry Brilliant: The case for informed optimism

33,141 views ・ 2007-12-07

TED


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翻译人员: Tony Yet 校对人员: Wang Qian
00:16
I'm going to try to give you a view of the world as I see it,
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我要跟大家分享一下我眼里的世界
00:22
the problems and the opportunities that we face,
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我们所面临的问题以及现存的机遇
00:26
and then ask the question if we should be optimistic or pessimistic.
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接着我会提出我们应当做乐观主义者还是悲观主义者这个问题
00:30
And then I'll let you in on a secret, which is why I am an incurable optimist.
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而后我会告诉大家一个秘密,就是我为何会成为一个不可救药的乐观主义者
00:36
Let me start off showing you an Al Gore movie that you may have seen before.
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我们还是从戈尔(美国前副总统)的影片开始,你们有些人看过了
00:42
Now, you've all seen "Inconvenient Truth." This is a little more inconvenient.
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大家都看过《不可忽视的真相》,但是这一个剪辑片段也许让你感到更加不舒服
00:51
(Video): Man: ... extremely dangerous questions.
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(视频)……这是极端危险的问题。
00:53
Because, with our present knowledge, we have no idea what would happen.
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因为,按照我们现有的知识,我们根本就无从得知到底会发生什么
00:57
Even now, man may be unwittingly changing the world's climate
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即便是今天,人类也许就已经在不经意中改变了地球的气候
01:01
through the waste products of his civilization.
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这都来源于人类文明所创造的废物
01:04
Due to our release, through factories and automobiles every year,
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每一年,工厂以及汽车尾气所排出的CO2
01:07
of more than six billion tons of carbon dioxide --
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总数为60亿吨
01:10
which helps air absorb heat from the sun --
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这就使得大气更多的吸收来自太阳的热量
01:13
our atmosphere seems to be getting warmer.
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我们的大气层也因而正变得温暖起来
01:16
This is bad?
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这是坏消息吗?
01:18
Well, it's been calculated a few degrees' rise in the earth's temperature would
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据估算,即使是地表温度升高几度
01:22
melt the polar ice caps.
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都足以使得两极的冰川融化
01:32
And if this happens, an inland sea would fill a good portion of the Mississippi Valley.
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假如真的发生这样的情况,那么流入内陆的海水将淹没密西西比谷地的大部分地区
01:37
Tourists in glass-bottomed boats would be viewing the drowned towers of Miami
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那时候,乘坐着玻璃底的游客也将可以看到迈阿密那里浸没的塔楼
01:41
through 150 feet of tropical water.
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那时候,迈阿密河的河水深度将达150英尺
01:45
For, in weather, we're not only dealing with forces of a far greater variety
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我们将遇到比以往任何时候都更多样的气候
01:50
than even the atomic physicist encounters, but with life itself.
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此外就是看到更多不同的生物
01:54
Larry Brilliant: Should we feel good, or should we feel bad
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看完这个,我们是应当感到高兴,还是应当感到悲伤?
01:58
that 50 years of foreknowledge accomplished so little?
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我们50年前就已经预测到这样的结果,但我们却没做任何干预?
02:04
Well, it depends, really, on what your goals are.
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这个嘛,要看你到底是要达到什么样的目的
02:07
And I think, as my goals, I always go back to Gandhi's talisman.
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我认为,至少我自己会回到甘地的talisman那里
02:14
When Mahatma Gandhi was asked,
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那时候,有人问
02:16
"How do you know if the next act that you are about to do is the right one
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你如何判断你所做的下一步是正确的还是错误的?
02:22
or the wrong one?" he said, "Consider the face of the poorest,
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甘地的回答是,“你要考虑那些最贫穷
02:28
most vulnerable human being that you ever chanced upon,
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最无力的人
02:34
and ask yourself if the act that you contemplate will be of benefit to that person.
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然后问自己,你所做的事情是否会让他们受益。
02:40
And if it will be, it's the right thing to do, and if not, rethink it."
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假如是,那就是好事。假如不是,你就要重新思考了。
02:46
For those of us in this room, it's not just the poorest and the most vulnerable individual,
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而对于我们这个房间里的人而言,我们要考虑的不单是最贫穷、最无力的人
02:51
it's the community, it's the culture, it's the world itself.
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我们要考虑整一个社区、文化以及整个世界
02:56
And the trends for those who are at the periphery of our society,
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以及那些生活在我们都市边缘的人们
03:01
who are the poorest and the most vulnerable,
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他们往往是最贫穷、最无力的
03:04
the trends give rise to a great case for pessimism.
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这一切,也许就会让我们感到无尽的悲观
03:10
But there's also a wonderful case for optimism.
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但与此同时,我们也看到了一片美好的乐观图景
03:13
Let's review them both. First of all, the megatrends.
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我们分别谈谈这两方面。首先,从大趋势来看,
03:19
There's two degrees, or three degrees of climate change baked into the system.
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现在有2到3摄氏度的升温是必然的
03:26
It will cause rising seas. It will cause saline deposited into wells and into lands.
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这将会导致海平面上升,海水倒灌
03:34
It will disproportionately harm the poorest and the most vulnerable,
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使得穷人以及无力者受到最大的伤害
03:38
as will the increasing rise of population.
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还有就是人口数量依然会增长
03:43
Even though we've dodged Paul Ehrlich's population bomb,
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虽然我们有幸逃过了Paul Ehrlich所预言的“人口爆炸”的危机
03:46
and we will not see 20 billion people in this decade, as he had forecast,
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至少在这个十年里,地球上不会出现200亿人
03:52
we eat as if we were 20 billion.
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但我们所消耗的食物数量与200亿人相当
03:55
And we consume so much that again, a rise of 6.5 billion to 9.5 billion
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我们所消费的东西是如此之多,因此,到了我们的孙辈那一代,
04:04
in our grandchildren's lifetime will disproportionately hurt
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人口将上升到65到95亿,
04:08
the poorest and the most vulnerable.
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那将使得最穷的人以及最无力的人成为最大的输家
04:12
That's why they migrate to cities.
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这就是他们迁往城市的原因
04:16
That's why in June of this year, we passed, as a species, 51 percent of us living in cities,
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今年6月,有51%的人居住在城市和贫民窟里,
04:22
and bustees, and slums, and shantytowns.
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这是人类这一物种的第一次
04:27
The rural areas are no longer producing as much food as they did.
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农村地区不再如往常那样出产大量的粮食
04:31
The green revolution never reached Africa.
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绿色革命未曾惠及非洲
04:34
And with desertification, sandstorms, the Gobi Desert, the Ogaden,
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还有就是沙漠化、沙尘暴、戈壁滩、Ogaden
04:41
we are finding increasing difficulty of a hectare
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我们现在很难找到一小块可以耕作,并且
04:45
to produce as many calories as it did even 15 years ago.
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可以产生出跟15年前一样多粮食的土地
04:50
So humans are turning more towards animal consumption.
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另外,人类也越来越喜欢吃肉
04:55
In Africa last year, Africans ate 600 million wild animals,
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单是去年一年,非洲人就吃掉了6亿头野生动物
05:00
and consumed two billion kilograms of bush meat.
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还吃掉了20亿公斤的丛林肉
05:05
And every kilogram of bush meat contained hundreds of thousands of novel viruses
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每一公斤的丛林肉都包含数以万计的新型病菌
05:11
that have never been charted, the genomic sequences of which we don't know.
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它们以前从未被监测到过,我们也还不知道它们的基因组图
05:17
Their fitness for creating pandemics we are unaware of,
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也许它们可以成为新型流行病的温床
05:22
but we are ripe for zoonotic-borne, emerging communicable diseases.
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我们即将要面对的,就是诞生于热带地区、易于传播的各种新型疾病
05:30
Increasingly, I would say explosive growth of technology.
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还有,随着技术的爆炸式增长
05:34
Most of us are the beneficiaries of that growth. But it has a dark side
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我们这里大多数人都是这一增长的受益者。但是,这样的增长也是存在黑暗点的
05:41
-- in bioweapons, and in technology that puts us on a collision course
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生物武器以及其他足以助长人们之间的
05:46
to magnify any anger, hatred or feeling of marginalization.
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仇恨、怨怒以及使得部分人被边缘化的形式
05:54
And in fact, with increasing globalization --
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随着全球化进程之加速,
05:58
for which there are big winners and even bigger losers
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这一进程将伴随着巨大的赢家以及更多的输家
06:02
-- today the world is more diverse and unfair than perhaps it has ever been in history.
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今日之世界比以往任何时候都更加多元也更加不公平
06:10
One percent of us own 40 percent of all the goods and services.
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1%的人口占有了40%的资源以及服务
06:17
What will happen if the billion people today who live on less than one dollar a day
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假如在未来30年内,那些生活在贫困线底下的人口数量
06:24
rise to three billion in the next 30 years?
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从10亿上升到30亿,会发生些什么?
06:29
The one percent will own even more than 40 percent of all the world's goods
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那么1%的人将占有多于40%的资源及服务
06:34
and services. Not because they've grown richer,
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事实上不是他们变得更富裕了
06:38
but because the rest of the world has grown increasingly poorer.
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而是因为世界别的地区的人正变得越来越贫穷
06:43
Last week, Bill Clinton at the TED Awards said,
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上周,克林顿在TED大奖获奖感言里说
06:45
"This situation is unprecedented, unequal, unfair and unstable."
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“这样一种情况是前所未有的、不公平的、不公正的,也不稳定的。”
06:52
So there's lots of reason for pessimism.
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因此,持悲观主义的心态似乎是有充分的理由
06:55
Darfur is, at its origin, a resource war.
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达尔富尔危机从本质上说就是一场资源争夺战
07:02
Last year, there were 85,000 riots in China,
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去年一年,中国发生了85000起的骚乱
07:07
230 a day, that required police or military intervention.
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平均每天230起是需要武力进行干涉的
07:12
Most of them were about resources.
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其中大部分都是为了争夺资源
07:15
We are facing an unprecedented number, scale of disasters.
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我们正面对前所未有的危机
07:20
Some are weather-related, human-rights related, epidemics.
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有些是关乎天气的,有些是关乎人的
07:25
And the newly emerging diseases may make H5N1 and bird flu
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而那些新兴的疾病将会使得H5N1以及禽流感相形见绌
07:31
a quaint forerunner of things to come. It's a destabilized world.
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它们不过是更大型病毒之前奏而已。这确实是一个不安宁的世界。
07:39
And unlike destabilized world in the past, it will be broadcast to you on YouTube,
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与过往的那些不安宁事件不一样的是,如今这个世界所发生的一切都将通过YouTube直播到你的桌面
07:44
you will see it on digital television and on your cell phones.
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你将会在数字电视以及手机上看到实况转播
07:48
What will that lead to?
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这将带来什么后果?
07:50
For some, it will lead to anger, religious and sectarian violence and terrorism.
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对有些人而言,将意味着愤怒,宗教或非宗教的暴力以及恐怖主义
07:57
For others, withdrawal, nihilism, materialism.
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对于其他人而言,将意味着退却、虚无以及拜物主义
08:06
For us, where does it take us, as social activists and entrepreneurs?
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但对于我们这些社会活动家以及企业家而言,这将意味着什么?
08:11
As we look at these trends, do we become despondent, or will we become energized?
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看到这样的趋势,我们是变得沮丧,还是变得倍受鼓舞?
08:20
Let's look at one case, the case of Bangladesh.
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我们来看看孟加拉的例子吧。
08:25
First, even if carbon dioxide emissions stopped today,
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首先,即使人类的CO2排放于今天停止,
08:30
global warming would continue.
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全球变暖的趋势依然会继续
08:33
And even with global warming -- if you can see these blue lines,
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大家可以看到那些蓝色的线条
08:37
the dotted line shows that even if emissions of greenhouse gasses stopped today,
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假使温室气体的排放今天就完全中止
08:46
the next decades will see rising sea levels.
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我们在下一个十年将依然会看到海平面的上升
08:51
A minimum of 20 to 30 inches of increase in sea levels is the best case
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最保守的估计是有20到30英寸的上升
08:58
that we can hope for, and it could be 10 times that.
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但事实可能是那个的10倍
09:02
What will that do to Bangladesh? Let's take a look.
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这会给孟加拉带来什么变化?
09:05
So here's Bangladesh.
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我们不妨看看,这里就是孟加拉,
09:12
70 percent of Bangladesh is at less than five feet above sea level.
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该国70%的国土海拔仅仅为五英尺
09:19
Let's go up and take a look at the Himalayas.
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我们来看看喜马拉雅山
09:21
And we'll watch as global warming makes them melt. More water comes down,
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我们看看喜马拉雅山因气候变暖而出现冰川融化的情景。雨水越来越多
09:26
the deforested areas, here in the Tarai, will be unable to absorb the effluent,
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积聚在森林消失的地方。在Tarai一地,那里的土地将不能吸收雨水
09:32
because trees are like straws that suck up the extra seasonal water.
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因为树木可以像秸秆那样吸收多余的雨水并且贮存起来的
09:38
Now we're looking down south, through the Kali Gandaki.
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好,我们再透过 Kali Gandaki 看看南部的地区
09:41
Many of you, I think, have probably trekked here.
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我想你们当中很多人应当是徒步去到过那里
09:44
And we're going to cruise down and take a look at Bangladesh
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我们就一直往南走,直到孟加拉
09:49
and see what the impact will be of twin increases in water
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我们看看这里会发生什么:北部的冰川融水会不断的增多
09:55
coming from the north, and in the seas rising from the south.
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同时,南部的海水也在不断的上涨
10:01
Looking at the five major rivers that feed Bangladesh.
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再看看途径孟加拉的五大河流
10:05
And now let's look from the south, looking up, and let's see this in relief.
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再从南往北看,看看这个三维的图像
10:11
A minimum of 20 to 40 inches of increase in seas,
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我们将发现,这里的海面会有20到40英寸的上升
10:17
coupled with increasing flows from the Himalayas. And take a look at this.
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还有来自喜马拉雅的融水。再看看这里
10:26
As many as 100 million refugees from Bangladesh could be expected to migrate
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将会有一亿的难民从孟加拉
10:35
into India and into China.
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逃难到印度和中国
10:39
This is the difficulty that one country faces.
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这就是其中一个国家即将面临的难题
10:44
But if you look at the globe, all around the earth, wherever there is low-lying area,
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假如你放眼全球,看看那些低洼地带
10:52
populated areas near the water,
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看看那些河岸线上的人口密集的地区
10:55
you will find increase in sea level that will challenge our way of life.
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你会看到,海平面之上涨会改变我们的生活
10:59
Sub-Saharan Africa, and even our own San Francisco Bay Area.
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不管是在撒哈拉以南的沙漠还是在我们这里的旧金山湾区
11:06
We're all in this together.
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我们可谓同济共舟
11:09
This is not something that happens far away to people that we don't know.
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这不是只会影响到一些边远地区的人的事件
11:13
Global warming is something that happens to all of us, all at once.
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它是会在我们每一个人身上发生的事情
11:19
As are these newly emerging communicable diseases,
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同样会发生的就是这些传染病
11:23
names that you hadn't heard 20 years ago: ebola, lhasa fever, monkey pox.
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这些名字你20年前还不会听说过:伊博拉、拉萨热、猴痘
11:28
With the erosion of the green belt separating animals from humans,
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还有,随着人与动物之间的那段绿色保护带在逐渐消失
11:33
we live in each other's viral environment.
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我们就生活在每一个人的病毒环境里
11:36
Do you remember, 20 years ago, no one had ever heard of West Nile fever?
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你能想象吗,20年前,还没有人会听说过西尼罗河热呢!
11:40
And then we watched, as one case arrived on the East Coast of the United States
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接着,我们就看到第一例感染个案出现在美国东海岸
11:44
and it marched every year, westwardly.
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其后每一年都逐渐西移
11:48
Do you remember no one had heard of ebola
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你知道吗?在我们听说中非有数百人因为感染这一病毒而死亡之前
11:51
until we heard of hundreds of people dying in Central Africa from it?
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没有人听说过这个病毒!
11:55
It's just the beginning, unfortunately.
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不幸的是,这一切都仅仅是开始
11:57
There have been 30 novel emerging communicable diseases
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过去30年,出现了30种新型传染病毒
12:04
that begin in animals that have jumped species in the last 30 years.
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都是最先出现在动物身上,而后传到人体的
12:11
It's more than enough reason for pessimism.
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看来使人悲观的事情还非常多
12:14
But now let's look at the case for optimism. (Laughter)
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但我们还是来看一下乐观的理由吧
12:19
Enough of the bad news. Human beings have always risen to the challenge.
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坏消息?够多了。人类总会勇于面对挑战
12:24
You just need to look at the list of Nobel laureates to remind ourselves.
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看看诺贝尔奖获得者的名单就可以理解这点
12:30
We've been here before, paralyzed by fear, paralyzed into inaction,
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我们过去不也曾遇到同类困境吗?我们被恐惧吓坏了,不行动
12:36
when some -- probably one of you in this room -- jumped into the breach
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但有些人——也许就是你们其中一些人——则不顾这么多
12:42
and created an organization like Physicians for Social Responsibility,
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就创立了一个像“物理学家社会责任协会”这样的组织
12:47
which fought against the nuclear threat,
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你们站起来对抗核子威胁
12:50
Medicins Sans Frontieres, that renewed our commitment to disaster relief,
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还有医生无国界,它继承了我们紧急救援的传统
12:56
Mohamed ElBaradei, and the tremendous hope and optimism that he
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还有国际原子能机构总干事巴拉迪,他的希望与乐观
13:00
brought all of us, and our own Muhammad Yunus.
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还有尤奴斯
13:04
We've seen the eradication of smallpox.
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我们亲眼看到了天花之消失
13:08
We may see the eradication of polio this year.
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我们也许今年就会看到小儿麻痹症被消灭
13:11
Last year, there were only 2,000 cases in the world.
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去年,全世界就只有2000例
13:15
We may see the eradication of guinea worm next year --
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明年,也许我们就能看到几内亚虫被消灭
13:19
there are only 35,000 cases left in the world.
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现在世界上只剩下35000个感染个案了
13:21
20 years ago, there were three and a half million.
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20年前,有350万的人感染这一病毒
13:25
And we've seen a new disease, not like the 30 novel emerging communicable diseases.
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我们也认识了一些新的传染病,它跟过去30年出现的流行传染病不大一样
13:32
This disease is called sudden wealth syndrome. (Laughter)
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它的名字叫“暴富综合症”(笑)
13:38
It's an amazing phenomenon.
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这是一个相当有趣的现象
13:41
All throughout the technology world, we're seeing young people bitten by this
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环顾科技界,我们看到了许多的年轻人
13:45
disease of sudden wealth syndrome.
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正是被这一综合症所感染
13:49
But they're using their wealth in a way that their forefathers never did.
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但他们花费金钱的方式是其父辈从未想到的
13:55
They're not waiting until they die to create foundations.
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他们不会等到临死才去创立基金会
13:59
They're actively guiding their money, their resources, their hearts, their commitments,
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他们正在将自己的金钱、资源、心血以及热忱
14:04
to make the world a better place.
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贡献出来,为的是让世界变得更好
14:06
Certainly, nothing can give you more optimism than that.
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可以说,没有别的东西可以给你更大的乐观情绪了
14:09
More reasons to be optimistic:
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还有更多使你乐观的理由
14:12
in the '60s, and I am a creature of the '60s, there was a movement.
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60年代的时候发生过一场运动,我就是那时候长大的
14:17
We all felt that we were part of it, that a better world was right around the corner,
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我们都认为自己是其中的一部分,我们认为一个更加美好的世界就在前面
14:21
that we were watching the birth of a world free of hatred and violence and prejudice.
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我们创造的是一个没有仇恨、暴力以及偏见的世界
14:27
Today, there's another kind of movement. It's a movement to save the earth.
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今天,我们看到了另外一场运动。这场运动的目的在于拯救地球
14:32
It's just beginning.
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如今才刚开始
14:34
Five weeks ago, a group of activists from the business community gathered together
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五个星期之前,来自商业界的一班活跃人士聚集到一起
14:41
to stop a Texas utility from building nine coal-fired electrical plants
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阻止德州电力局修建9座煤炭电力电厂
14:47
that would have contributed to destroying the environment.
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因为那种电力生产模式会破坏环境
14:52
Six months ago, a group of business activists gathered together to join with the
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6个月前,又是一班商业界的活跃人士
14:58
Republican governor in California to pass AB 32,
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支持加州州长通过了AB 32法案
15:02
the most far-reaching legislation in environmental history.
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这是环境运动史上最具深远意义的法案
15:07
Al Gore made presentations in the House and the Senate as an expert witness.
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戈尔以专家身份在参众两院作证
15:16
Can you imagine? (Laughter)
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你能想象这一切吗?(笑)
15:19
We're seeing an entente cordiale between science and religion that five years ago
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我们看到了科学与宗教走向联合
15:25
I would not have believed, as the evangelical community
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因为他们都看到了气候变暖之严峻
15:29
has understood the desperate situation of global warming.
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这在几年前又是不可思议的
15:35
And now 4,000 churches have joined the environmental movement.
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现在有4000座教堂加入了环保运动的行列
15:40
It is something to be greatly optimistic about.
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这又是值得乐观的
15:44
The European 20-20-20 plan is an amazing breakthrough,
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欧盟的20-20-20计划又是一个伟大的突破
15:50
something that should make all of us feel that hope is on the horizon.
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它让我们看到了地平线上希望的曙光
15:55
And on April 14th, there will be Step Up Day, where there will be a thousand
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4月14日,将会是行动日
16:00
individual mobilized social activist movements in the United States on protest
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美国将有数千活跃人士自发的发起
16:07
against legislation -- pushing for legislation to stop global warming.
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游行,声援关于阻止气候变暖的立法
16:13
And on July 7th, around the world, I learned only yesterday,
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我昨天得知,7月7日,在世界各地
16:17
there will be global Live Earth concerts.
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将会有一场Live Earth音乐会
16:21
And you can feel this optimistic move to save the earth in the air.
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你甚至可以感受到空气中的这股拯救地球气氛
16:27
Now, that doesn't mean that people understand that global warming
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但所有这一切并不意味着他们都理解一点
16:31
hurts the poorest and the weakest the most.
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即气候变暖的最大受害者是穷人以及弱势群体
16:35
That means that people are beginning the first step,
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这一切仅仅表明人们正在迈出第一步
16:37
which is acting out of their own self-interest.
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也就是为了维护自身的利益而奋起抗争
16:40
But I am seeing in the major funders, in CARE, Rockefeller,
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但我同时也看到了一些大的基金会,如CARE, 洛克菲勒基金会
16:44
Rockefeller Brothers Fund, Hewlett, Mercy Corps, you guys, Google,
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洛克菲勒兄弟基金会、Hewlett, Mercy Corps, 以及Google基金会
16:49
so many other organizations, a beginning of understanding that we need
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都开始认识到一点
16:54
to work not just on primary prevention of global warming,
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即我们不能单单为了防止气候变暖而抗争
16:57
but on the secondary prevention of the consequences of global warming
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而且要为气候变暖带来的后果作准备
17:02
on the poorest and the most vulnerable.
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特别是因为这样的后果对于穷人以及弱势群体影响是最大的
17:07
But for me, I have another reason to be an incurable optimist.
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但对于我自己而言,我还有别的让我感到乐观的理由
17:12
And you've heard so many inspiring stories here, and I heard so many last night
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你们在这里听说了很多有趣的故事,我昨晚就听到很多个
17:18
that I thought I would share a little bit of mine.
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这里我想分享一下我自己 的故事
17:21
My background is not exactly conventional medical training.
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我不是学医出身的
17:25
And I lived in a Himalayan monastery, and I studied with a very wise teacher,
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我曾住在喜马拉雅山的寺庙里,从师与一位非常智慧的人
17:30
who kicked me out of the monastery one day and told me that it was my destiny --
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有一天,他把我带到寺庙外,告诉我,
17:35
it felt like Yoda -- it is your destiny to go to work for WHO
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我的使命就是为世卫工作
17:41
and to help eradicate smallpox,
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帮助他们消灭天花
17:43
at a time when there was no smallpox program.
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那时候还没有此类项目
17:47
It should make you optimistic that smallpox no longer exists
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今天,我们确实达到了这一目的,这让我充满乐观的信心
17:51
because it was the worst disease in history.
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因为天花曾经是最恶毒的一种疾病之一
17:55
In the last century -- that's the one that was seven years ago --
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就在上个世纪--也就是7年前
18:01
half a billion people died from smallpox:
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有5亿人因为感染天花而死
18:03
more than all the wars in history,
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这一数字比历史上所有因为战争死亡的人数还要多
18:06
more than any other infectious disease in the history of the world.
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也比任何其他感染性疾病带来的死亡个案更高
18:11
In the Summer of Love, in 1967, two million people, children, died of smallpox.
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1967年夏季,有两百万人因为感染天花而死
18:18
It's not ancient history.
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天花由来已久
18:21
When you read the biblical plague of boils, that was smallpox.
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你阅读《圣经》的时候,你读到灼伤的章节,就应当知道那是在讲天花感染
18:26
Pharaoh Ramses the Fifth, whose picture is here, died of smallpox.
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Ramses法老就是因为感染天花而死的
18:33
To eradicate smallpox, we had to gather the largest United Nations army in history.
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为了消灭天花,我们召集了联合国史上最大的一支部队
18:39
We visited every house in India, searching for smallpox -- 120 million houses,
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我们在印度逐家逐户去敲门,询问是否有人感染天花,一共有1.2亿户人家
18:45
once every month, for nearly two years.
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每个月一次,连续进行了两年
18:49
In a cruel reversal, after we had almost conquered smallpox --
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在我们马上要消灭天花的一个关键时刻
18:52
and this is what you must learn as a social entrepreneur, the realm of the final inch.
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这也是你作为一个社会企业家应当学习的,就是到了最后的那一个拐点上该怎么做
18:58
When we had almost eradicated smallpox, it came back again,
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当我们马上就要消灭天花的时候,它又重新猖獗起来
19:02
because the company town of Tatanagar drew laborers,
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原因在于 Tatanagar 镇吸引了大批的劳工
19:07
who could come there and get employment.
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他们来到那里寻找工作
19:10
And they caught smallpox in the one remaining place that had smallpox,
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不幸的是,他们在一个未曾消灭天花的地方感染了这个病
19:14
and they went home to die.
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而后回到家里等待死亡
19:16
And when they did, they took smallpox to 10 other countries
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一路上把病毒带到了其他十个国家
19:20
and reignited the epidemic.
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使得病毒死灰复燃
19:22
And we had to start all over again.
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我们不得不重新开始
19:26
But, in the end, we succeeded, and the last case of smallpox:
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但我们最后还是胜利了,最后的一例天花:
19:33
this little girl, Rahima Banu -- Barisal, in Bangladesh --
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就是这个女孩,她叫Rahima Banu 她住在孟加拉的巴里萨尔市
19:40
when she coughed or breathed, and the last virus of smallpox left her lungs
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当她通过咳嗽将最后一个天花病毒吐出口中
19:47
and fell on the dirt and the sun killed that last virus,
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病毒落到地面,被太阳晒死
19:53
thus ended a chain of transmission of history's greatest horror.
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这意味着历史上最可怕的病毒感染宣告终结
20:01
How can that not make you optimistic?
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听到这样的故事,你难道会不感到乐观吗?
20:07
A disease which killed hundreds of thousands in India, and blinded half of
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这个病毒单在印度就夺去了成千上万人的生命,
20:13
all of those who were made blind in India, ended.
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还有那个使得许许多多人失明的病毒也消失了
20:18
And most importantly for us here in this room, a bond was created.
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对于我们而言,最重要的是我们建立了一种联系
20:25
Doctors, health workers, from 30 different countries,
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来自30多个国家、不同种族、不同宗教信仰、不同肤色、
20:28
of every race, every religion, every color, worked together,
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的医生、医疗工作者并肩工作
20:33
fought alongside each other,
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合力对抗病菌
20:36
fought against a common enemy, didn't fight against each other.
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万万没应对共同的敌人,我们不是内斗
20:41
How can that not make you feel optimistic for the future?
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这样的事情难道不会让你对未来充满信心吗?
20:46
Thank you very much.
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感谢大家。
20:48
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
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