Larry Brilliant: The case for informed optimism

譯者: chufung dou 審譯者: Wang-Ju Tsai

I'm going to try to give you a view of the world as I see it,

我將告訴你們我的世界觀,

the problems and the opportunities that we face,

我們面對的問題與機會,

and then ask the question if we should be optimistic or pessimistic.

然後思考我們是該樂觀還是悲觀的問題,

And then I'll let you in on a secret, which is why I am an incurable optimist.

然後讓你們分享一個秘密，就是我為什麼是個不可救藥的樂觀主義者,

Let me start off showing you an Al Gore movie that you may have seen before.

我先放一段你們可能已經看過的高爾的電影,

Now, you've all seen "Inconvenient Truth." This is a little more inconvenient.

你們大概都看過“不願面對的真相”，這段是更難以面對。

(Video): Man: ... extremely dangerous questions.

（錄影帶）：人：.....非常危險的問題。

Because, with our present knowledge, we have no idea what would happen.

因為，以我們現在的知識，我們不知道將會發生什麼，

Even now, man may be unwittingly changing the world's climate

即使現在，人們可能還在不經意中改變世界的氣候，

through the waste products of his civilization.

經由人類文明的廢棄物，

Due to our release, through factories and automobiles every year,

由於每年工廠與汽車的排放，

of more than six billion tons of carbon dioxide --

超過60億噸的二氧化碳--

which helps air absorb heat from the sun --

它們幫助空氣吸收太陽的熱量--

our atmosphere seems to be getting warmer.

我們的大氣變得更暖和，

This is bad?

這是不好嗎？

Well, it's been calculated a few degrees' rise in the earth's temperature would

是的，計算顯示地球溫度只要上升幾度，

melt the polar ice caps.

就會融化兩極的冰蓋，

And if this happens, an inland sea would fill a good portion of the Mississippi Valley.

如果這個發生，則密西西比山谷的一大部分地區將如一片內陸海洋，

Tourists in glass-bottomed boats would be viewing the drowned towers of Miami

觀光客搭乘底部是玻璃的船，欣賞邁阿密沉在海中的大樓，

through 150 feet of tropical water.

水深有150英尺，

For, in weather, we're not only dealing with forces of a far greater variety

因為，在氣候這事，我們面對的力量，變化遠多於

than even the atomic physicist encounters, but with life itself.

原子物理學家所面對的，而且還涉及生命本身。

Larry Brilliant: Should we feel good, or should we feel bad

賴利布里安：我們應該感到高興還是悲哀,

that 50 years of foreknowledge accomplished so little?

對這50年我們累積的知識只完成這麼一點點?

Well, it depends, really, on what your goals are.

這要看你的目標是什麼，

And I think, as my goals, I always go back to Gandhi's talisman.

我想，我的目標，我總是回想甘地的原則,

When Mahatma Gandhi was asked,

每當甘地被問到，

"How do you know if the next act that you are about to do is the right one

“你怎麼知道你下一個要做的事情是對的，

or the wrong one?" he said, "Consider the face of the poorest,

還是錯的？”他總說，“想那些最苦的人，

most vulnerable human being that you ever chanced upon,

想那些你見過最可憐的人，

and ask yourself if the act that you contemplate will be of benefit to that person.

問你自己，你要做的事是否對他們有益，

And if it will be, it's the right thing to do, and if not, rethink it."

如果是，那就是該做的事，如果不是，就要再考慮。”

For those of us in this room, it's not just the poorest and the most vulnerable individual,

對在這裡的各位，不止要考慮最窮的人與最可憐的人，

it's the community, it's the culture, it's the world itself.

還要考慮社區，文化以及整個世界，

And the trends for those who are at the periphery of our society,

對社會邊緣人的未來，

who are the poorest and the most vulnerable,

就是那些最窮的與最可憐的人，

the trends give rise to a great case for pessimism.

他們的前景是令人悲觀的，

But there's also a wonderful case for optimism.

但也有值得樂觀的一面，

Let's review them both. First of all, the megatrends.

讓我們對兩者都檢討一下，第一，大趨勢

There's two degrees, or three degrees of climate change baked into the system.

地球溫度將上升兩度或三度，

It will cause rising seas. It will cause saline deposited into wells and into lands.

它會導致海平面上升，使得水井與土地含鹽度增高，

It will disproportionately harm the poorest and the most vulnerable,

它會不成比例的傷害到最窮與最無力的人，

as will the increasing rise of population.

以及新增加的人口,

Even though we've dodged Paul Ehrlich's population bomb,

雖然我們避開了Ehrlich的人口爆炸論，

and we will not see 20 billion people in this decade, as he had forecast,

不會如他預測的在這年代看到200億的人口，

we eat as if we were 20 billion.

但我們消耗的糧食就像200億人這麼多，

And we consume so much that again, a rise of 6.5 billion to 9.5 billion

我們消耗這麼多，加上人口增加由65億到95億，

in our grandchildren's lifetime will disproportionately hurt

到我們孫輩時就會不成比例的傷害

the poorest and the most vulnerable.

到最窮苦與最無力的，

That's why they migrate to cities.

所以他們要移居到城市去，

That's why in June of this year, we passed, as a species, 51 percent of us living in cities,

因此到今年的6月，51%的人類居住到城市，

and bustees, and slums, and shantytowns.

許多各樣的貧民區，

The rural areas are no longer producing as much food as they did.

農村不再像從前那樣生產許多食物，

The green revolution never reached Africa.

綠色革命沒有在非洲發生，

And with desertification, sandstorms, the Gobi Desert, the Ogaden,

加上土地沙漠化，砂石風暴，戈壁沙漠，歐加登平原乾旱，

we are finding increasing difficulty of a hectare

我們發現一單位土地愈來愈難，

to produce as many calories as it did even 15 years ago.

像15年前生產出那麼多的卡路里，

So humans are turning more towards animal consumption.

所以人們要轉向多吃肉類，

In Africa last year, Africans ate 600 million wild animals,

在非洲，去年非洲人吃掉6億頭野生動物，

and consumed two billion kilograms of bush meat.

消費20億公斤的野生動物肉品，

And every kilogram of bush meat contained hundreds of thousands of novel viruses

而每公斤的野生動物肉體裡面含有千百種的細菌，

that have never been charted, the genomic sequences of which we don't know.

我們對這些細菌的性質不了解，吃了會有什麼結果也不知道，

Their fitness for creating pandemics we are unaware of,

不清楚它們是不是會造成流行疾病，

but we are ripe for zoonotic-borne, emerging communicable diseases.

但我們可能將面對動物源病媒性新型的傳染病。

Increasingly, I would say explosive growth of technology.

科技方面爆炸性的成長，

Most of us are the beneficiaries of that growth. But it has a dark side

使我們大家受益，但它還是有黑暗面，

-- in bioweapons, and in technology that puts us on a collision course

如生物戰劑，在衝突時可能用到的科技，

to magnify any anger, hatred or feeling of marginalization.

會擴大任何氣憤，仇恨或邊緣化的感覺，

And in fact, with increasing globalization --

而在全球化加速之際，

for which there are big winners and even bigger losers

有大贏家與更大的輸家，

-- today the world is more diverse and unfair than perhaps it has ever been in history.

-今天世界比史上任何時候都更加的差異化與不公平，

One percent of us own 40 percent of all the goods and services.

1%的人擁有40%的物資與服務，

What will happen if the billion people today who live on less than one dollar a day

想像今天有10億人一天生活費不到一美元，

rise to three billion in the next 30 years?

在未來30年他們成長到30億人，將會發生什麼？

The one percent will own even more than 40 percent of all the world's goods

那1%的人將擁有世界上比40%還多的物資，

and services. Not because they've grown richer,

與服務，不是因為他們他們更富有了，

but because the rest of the world has grown increasingly poorer.

而是因為世界其他地區更加的貧窮，

Last week, Bill Clinton at the TED Awards said,

上週，克林頓在TED頒獎典禮上說，

"This situation is unprecedented, unequal, unfair and unstable."

“這情形是前所未有的，不公平的，不穩定的。“

So there's lots of reason for pessimism.

所以有很多理由可以悲觀，

Darfur is, at its origin, a resource war.

達爾富爾，本質上是場資源爭奪戰。

Last year, there were 85,000 riots in China,

去年，中國有8萬5千件騷亂事件，

230 a day, that required police or military intervention.

平均一天230件，那是需要出動警察或軍方干預的，

Most of them were about resources.

它們多數都是為了爭奪資源，

We are facing an unprecedented number, scale of disasters.

我們面對的動亂遠多於從前，

Some are weather-related, human-rights related, epidemics.

有些與氣候有關，或與人權有關，或是傳染病，

And the newly emerging diseases may make H5N1 and bird flu

而新興的疾病，可能使H5N1與禽流感

a quaint forerunner of things to come. It's a destabilized world.

變得只是未來大病毒前的一曲前奏般，這是個不穩定的世界，

And unlike destabilized world in the past, it will be broadcast to you on YouTube,

而與過去世界動亂不同的是，它將經由YouTube傳播給你，

you will see it on digital television and on your cell phones.

你可以在數位電視或手機上看到，

What will that lead to?

這會怎樣呢？

For some, it will lead to anger, religious and sectarian violence and terrorism.

對有些人，它會導致憤怒，宗教的與宗派的暴力與恐怖活動，

For others, withdrawal, nihilism, materialism.

對其他人，可能退縮，虛無或成為物質主義，

For us, where does it take us, as social activists and entrepreneurs?

對我們這些社會活耀份子或企業家，這引導我們向哪去呢？

As we look at these trends, do we become despondent, or will we become energized?

當我們觀察這些趨勢時，我們是該沮喪，還是更有活力？

Let's look at one case, the case of Bangladesh.

讓我們看個孟加拉國的例子，

First, even if carbon dioxide emissions stopped today,

第一，即使今後二氧化碳停止排放，

global warming would continue.

全球暖化仍將繼續，

And even with global warming -- if you can see these blue lines,

在全球暖化下，你可以看到這些藍線，

the dotted line shows that even if emissions of greenhouse gasses stopped today,

這條點線顯示，即使今後溫室效應氣體排放停止，

the next decades will see rising sea levels.

未來幾十年海平面也將上升，

A minimum of 20 to 30 inches of increase in sea levels is the best case

至少也是20到30英寸，

that we can hope for, and it could be 10 times that.

但有可能是這個的10倍。

What will that do to Bangladesh? Let's take a look.

這對孟加拉會怎樣？讓我們看一下，

So here's Bangladesh.

這是孟加拉，

70 percent of Bangladesh is at less than five feet above sea level.

它70%的地方不超過海平面5英尺，

Let's go up and take a look at the Himalayas.

讓我們向上走看看喜馬拉雅山，

And we'll watch as global warming makes them melt. More water comes down,

我們看到全球暖化使它冰融，水流而下，

the deforested areas, here in the Tarai, will be unable to absorb the effluent,

在這森林被採伐掉的Tarai地區，將無法吸收大量的水，

because trees are like straws that suck up the extra seasonal water.

因為樹木像吸管一樣，有吸收多餘水量功能的，

Now we're looking down south, through the Kali Gandaki.

現在往南看，經過Kali Gandaki，

Many of you, I think, have probably trekked here.

我想你們中間很多人去那旅行過，

And we're going to cruise down and take a look at Bangladesh

我們將坐船旅遊看看孟加拉，

and see what the impact will be of twin increases in water

看兩種水量增加所帶來的影響，

coming from the north, and in the seas rising from the south.

從北方融冰的水，與南方海平面的上升，

Looking at the five major rivers that feed Bangladesh.

看流入孟加拉的五條主要河流，

And now let's look from the south, looking up, and let's see this in relief.

從南方朝北看，很清楚的，

A minimum of 20 to 40 inches of increase in seas,

海平面上升至少20至40英寸，

coupled with increasing flows from the Himalayas. And take a look at this.

同時來自喜馬拉雅山的水流增加，看這個

As many as 100 million refugees from Bangladesh could be expected to migrate

估計會有一億的孟加拉難民要遷移

into India and into China.

到印度與中國，

This is the difficulty that one country faces.

這只是一個國家要面臨的困難，

But if you look at the globe, all around the earth, wherever there is low-lying area,

但如果你看全球，整個地球，各低窪地區，

populated areas near the water,

靠海的人口密集地區，

you will find increase in sea level that will challenge our way of life.

你會發現海平面上升將挑戰我們的生活方式，

Sub-Saharan Africa, and even our own San Francisco Bay Area.

非洲撒哈拉南方，或是我們的舊金山灣區，

We're all in this together.

我們都屬一個群體的，

This is not something that happens far away to people that we don't know.

這不是發生在遙遠的那些不認識的人，

Global warming is something that happens to all of us, all at once.

全球暖化是同時發生在我們全體身上的。

As are these newly emerging communicable diseases,

同樣的這些新興的傳染病，

names that you hadn't heard 20 years ago: ebola, lhasa fever, monkey pox.

它們的名字在20年前都沒有人聽過：伊波拉，拉薩熱，猴痘，

With the erosion of the green belt separating animals from humans,

分隔人們與動物的綠色地帶逐漸縮小，

we live in each other's viral environment.

我們都生活在相互間病毒感染的環境中，

Do you remember, 20 years ago, no one had ever heard of West Nile fever?

記得20年前，沒人聽說過西尼羅河熱這傳染病吧？

And then we watched, as one case arrived on the East Coast of the United States

然後我們看到，當它在美國東岸出現後，

and it marched every year, westwardly.

每年向西傳染散播，

Do you remember no one had heard of ebola

你記得當初沒有人聽過伊波拉病毒，

until we heard of hundreds of people dying in Central Africa from it?

直到我們聽說非洲中部因為這種病毒而死掉數百人，

It's just the beginning, unfortunately.

不幸的,那只是開始,

There have been 30 novel emerging communicable diseases

那裡發生30種新型的傳染病，

that begin in animals that have jumped species in the last 30 years.

它在過去30年間，從動物開始,再感染到人類，

It's more than enough reason for pessimism.

這病毒令人有夠多的理由感到悲觀，

But now let's look at the case for optimism. (Laughter)

但現在讓我們看看樂觀的理由(笑)

Enough of the bad news. Human beings have always risen to the challenge.

壞消息夠多了。但人類一直都能面對挑戰,

You just need to look at the list of Nobel laureates to remind ourselves.

我們只需看看諾貝爾獎得主名單,就能提醒大家,

We've been here before, paralyzed by fear, paralyzed into inaction,

我們也曾面對這類困境,擔憂害怕,到不知所措,

when some -- probably one of you in this room -- jumped into the breach

但有些人-可能是你們其中的一人-敢於面對問題

and created an organization like Physicians for Social Responsibility,

創立一個像物理學家社會責任協會這類組織,

which fought against the nuclear threat,

以對抗核子威脅為目標,

Medicins Sans Frontieres, that renewed our commitment to disaster relief,

或者無國界醫生組織,它重新定義我們對抗疾病的承諾,

Mohamed ElBaradei, and the tremendous hope and optimism that he

默罕默德巴拉迪,他帶來極大的希望與樂觀態度,

brought all of us, and our own Muhammad Yunus.

帶給大家,還有我們的默罕默德尤努斯

We've seen the eradication of smallpox.

我們看到天花被消滅，

We may see the eradication of polio this year.

今年可能看到小兒麻痺症被消滅，

Last year, there were only 2,000 cases in the world.

去年,世界只有2000個病例,

We may see the eradication of guinea worm next year --

我們也許在明年可以看到麥地那龍線蟲症被消滅，

there are only 35,000 cases left in the world.

現在世界只剩下3萬5千個案例，

20 years ago, there were three and a half million.

20年前,那時有3百50萬個案例，

And we've seen a new disease, not like the 30 novel emerging communicable diseases.

我們看到了新的疾病,與30種新型的傳染病不同,

This disease is called sudden wealth syndrome. (Laughter)

這疾病叫做暴富症候群，（笑）

It's an amazing phenomenon.

這是個有趣的現象，

All throughout the technology world, we're seeing young people bitten by this

在這個科技的世界,我們看到年輕人被這疾病感染，

disease of sudden wealth syndrome.

患了想立即發財的傳染病，

But they're using their wealth in a way that their forefathers never did.

但他們使用財富的方法,與他們的父執輩不同

They're not waiting until they die to create foundations.

他們不是等到死後才設立基金會,

They're actively guiding their money, their resources, their hearts, their commitments,

他們積極的主導他們資金,資源,關心與承諾的走向，

to make the world a better place.

以使世界成為更好的地方，

Certainly, nothing can give you more optimism than that.

確實,沒有別的能夠讓你更感到樂觀，

More reasons to be optimistic:

更多樂觀的理由，

in the '60s, and I am a creature of the '60s, there was a movement.

在60年代,我是在60年代出生的,當時有個運動,

We all felt that we were part of it, that a better world was right around the corner,

我們都覺得自己是它的一部分,覺得一個更美好的世界就在轉角了,

that we were watching the birth of a world free of hatred and violence and prejudice.

我們覺得一個沒有仇恨沒有暴力與偏見的世界即將誕生，

Today, there's another kind of movement. It's a movement to save the earth.

今天,有另外一個運動,是要拯救這個世界,

It's just beginning.

它才剛開始，

Five weeks ago, a group of activists from the business community gathered together

五週前,一群企業界的活耀人士聚集在一起,

to stop a Texas utility from building nine coal-fired electrical plants

要阻止一家德州電力廠建造九座煤礦火力發電廠，

that would have contributed to destroying the environment.

因為那會破壞環境，

Six months ago, a group of business activists gathered together to join with the

六個月前,一群企業界活躍人士聚集

Republican governor in California to pass AB 32,

支持加州共和黨的州長,通過AB 32法案，

the most far-reaching legislation in environmental history.

這是環保史上影響最深遠的法案，

Al Gore made presentations in the House and the Senate as an expert witness.

高爾以專家立場在參院與眾院發表演講，

Can you imagine? (Laughter)

你能想像嗎？(笑)

We're seeing an entente cordiale between science and religion that five years ago

我們看到五年前在科學界與宗教界間和睦的協商，

I would not have believed, as the evangelical community

我們真不敢相信,福音教派

has understood the desperate situation of global warming.

了解到全球暖化迫切的情況，

And now 4,000 churches have joined the environmental movement.

現在有4千多教會加入環保運動，

It is something to be greatly optimistic about.

這是很令人振奮的事，

The European 20-20-20 plan is an amazing breakthrough,

歐洲的20-20-'20計劃是個令人驚喜的突破，

something that should make all of us feel that hope is on the horizon.

是個讓大家感覺即將有希望的事情，

And on April 14th, there will be Step Up Day, where there will be a thousand

在4月14日,將有個加強日,將有上千個

individual mobilized social activist movements in the United States on protest

個人動員的社會活躍人士活動,在美國抗議

against legislation -- pushing for legislation to stop global warming.

反對立法,-要推動立法以阻止全球暖化，

And on July 7th, around the world, I learned only yesterday,

在7月7日,我昨天才知道,世界各地，

there will be global Live Earth concerts.

將有全球現場地球音樂會，

And you can feel this optimistic move to save the earth in the air.

你可以感覺到這個解救地球運動帶來的樂觀氣氛。

Now, that doesn't mean that people understand that global warming

現在,這不代表人們都了解地球暖化

hurts the poorest and the weakest the most.

最會傷害到的是最貧窮與最脆弱的人群

That means that people are beginning the first step,

這表示人們開始了第一步，

which is acting out of their own self-interest.

採取行動以保護自身的利益，

But I am seeing in the major funders, in CARE, Rockefeller,

但我看到主要的贊助人,在CARE，在洛克菲勒基金,

Rockefeller Brothers Fund, Hewlett, Mercy Corps, you guys, Google,

在洛克菲勒兄弟基金,惠氏,Mercy公司,還有你們，谷歌，

so many other organizations, a beginning of understanding that we need

這麼多的組織,開始了解我們需要，

to work not just on primary prevention of global warming,

不僅是為阻止地球暖化，

but on the secondary prevention of the consequences of global warming

還是預防地球暖化的結果，

on the poorest and the most vulnerable.

在最貧窮與最脆弱的地方，

But for me, I have another reason to be an incurable optimist.

但對我,我另有個理由成為死不悔改的樂觀主義者，

And you've heard so many inspiring stories here, and I heard so many last night

你們在這裡聽到這麼多令人鼓舞的故事,我昨晚聽到這麼多，

that I thought I would share a little bit of mine.

我想我該分享一些我的，

My background is not exactly conventional medical training.

我的背景不全是傳統的醫療訓練,

And I lived in a Himalayan monastery, and I studied with a very wise teacher,

我曾住在一個喜馬拉雅山上的寺廟中，在那向一位很智慧的老師學習

who kicked me out of the monastery one day and told me that it was my destiny --

有一天他要我離開寺廟，說是我命中注定，

it felt like Yoda -- it is your destiny to go to work for WHO

感覺就像尤達（Yoda），你命中註定要為世界衛生組織（WHO）工作，

and to help eradicate smallpox,

幫助消滅天花，

at a time when there was no smallpox program.

那是還沒有沒有消滅天花計劃的時候，

It should make you optimistic that smallpox no longer exists

現在天花消滅了，你該感到樂觀，

because it was the worst disease in history.

因為它是人類史上最可怕的疾病，

In the last century -- that's the one that was seven years ago --

在上個世紀-就是七年前那個-

half a billion people died from smallpox:

有5億的人因為天花而死亡，

more than all the wars in history,

比史上因為戰爭而死亡的總人數還多，

more than any other infectious disease in the history of the world.

比世界史上任何其他傳染病的都多，

In the Summer of Love, in 1967, two million people, children, died of smallpox.

在1967年嬉皮愛之夏期間，兩百萬的大人與小孩死於天花，

It's not ancient history.

這不是古老的歷史

When you read the biblical plague of boils, that was smallpox.

當你讀到聖經中關於毒瘤傳染的描述，那是天花

Pharaoh Ramses the Fifth, whose picture is here, died of smallpox.

法老王拉姆西斯五世，他的畫片在這，死於天花

To eradicate smallpox, we had to gather the largest United Nations army in history.

為消滅天花，我們召集聯合國史上最龐大的隊伍，

We visited every house in India, searching for smallpox -- 120 million houses,

我們訪問印度每一個房子，尋找天花，-那是1億2千萬個房子，

once every month, for nearly two years.

每個月一次，幾乎持續兩年，

In a cruel reversal, after we had almost conquered smallpox --

在我們幾乎征服天花時，局面差點反轉，

and this is what you must learn as a social entrepreneur, the realm of the final inch.

這是你們社會企業家必須學習的，最後一分鐘可能發生的事情，

When we had almost eradicated smallpox, it came back again,

當我們幾乎消滅天花時，它又回來，

because the company town of Tatanagar drew laborers,

因為在Tatanagar城市的公司招僱勞工，

who could come there and get employment.

人們可以到那受僱就業，

And they caught smallpox in the one remaining place that had smallpox,

他們在一個還有病毒的地方感染到天花，

and they went home to die.

他們回家待斃，

And when they did, they took smallpox to 10 other countries

當他們回家時，他們把天花病毒帶到10個其他國家

and reignited the epidemic.

又使得病毒散佈傳染，

And we had to start all over again.

我們必須重新開始，

But, in the end, we succeeded, and the last case of smallpox:

但最後我們成功了，天花的最後一個案例,

this little girl, Rahima Banu -- Barisal, in Bangladesh --

這小女孩，巴紐，在孟加拉,

when she coughed or breathed, and the last virus of smallpox left her lungs

當她咳嗽或呼吸時，天花的最後一個病毒離開她的肺,

and fell on the dirt and the sun killed that last virus,

掉在地上，太陽殺死那最後的病毒，

thus ended a chain of transmission of history's greatest horror.

這樣結束了史上最恐怖的病毒傳染,

How can that not make you optimistic?

這怎麼能不使你樂觀呢？

A disease which killed hundreds of thousands in India, and blinded half of

一個在印度使數十万人死亡的疾病，印度失明的人中有半數

all of those who were made blind in India, ended.

也是因為它，終於結束。

And most importantly for us here in this room, a bond was created.

對我們在這大廳裡的人，最重要的，是成為共同體,

Doctors, health workers, from 30 different countries,

醫生，健康工作人員，從30個不同的國家

of every race, every religion, every color, worked together,

每一個種族，每個宗教，每個顏色，一起工作,

fought alongside each other,

並肩作戰,

fought against a common enemy, didn't fight against each other.

是與共同的的敵人作戰，不是互相攻擊，

How can that not make you feel optimistic for the future?

這怎麼不使你對未來感到樂觀呢？

Thank you very much.

謝謝.

(Applause)

（掌聲）