4 environmental 'heresies' | Stewart Brand

82,974 views ・ 2009-07-13

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翻译人员: Angelia King 校对人员: Tony Yet
00:16
Because of what I'm about to say,
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因为我等会谈论的议题的缘故
00:18
I really should establish my green credentials.
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我想我必须首先讲述一下我的绿色情结
00:21
When I was a small boy, I took my pledge
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当我还是一个小男孩,我承诺
00:23
as an American, to save and faithfully defend from waste
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作为一名美国人,要保护和忠实地捍卫
00:26
the natural resources of my country,
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我国的自然资源。
00:28
its air, soil and minerals, its forests, waters and wildlife.
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这包括空气,土壤,矿物资源,森林,水资源和野生动物。
00:31
And I've stuck to that.
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我还坚持这一承诺。
00:33
Stanford, I majored in ecology and evolution.
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在斯坦福大学,我主修生态学和生物进化学。
00:37
1968, I put out the Whole Earth Catalog. Was "mister natural" for a while.
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1968年我创办了《地球目录》 一段时间我成了 “环保先生”。
00:41
And then worked for the Jerry Brown administration.
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然后就职于杰里布朗政府。
00:44
The Brown administration, and a bunch of my friends,
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布朗政府期间,我和一些朋友们
00:47
basically leveled the energy efficiency of California,
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主要使加州能源效率平衡。
00:50
so it's the same now, 30 years later,
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因此到现在,30年后,
00:53
even though our economy has gone up 80 percent, per capita.
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尽管我们的人均经济提高了百分之八十。
00:57
And we are putting out less greenhouse gasses than any other state.
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但我们加州比任何其他州排放越来越少的温室气体。
01:00
California is basically the equivalent of Europe, in this.
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在减少温室气体排放这点,加州基本上相当于欧洲。
01:03
This year, Whole Earth Catalog has a supplement that I'll preview today,
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今年,地球目录有一个补充,今天,我将
01:08
called Whole Earth Discipline.
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其称为“地球规则”。
01:11
The dominant demographic event of our time
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现在主要人口事件
01:13
is this screamingly rapid urbanization
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是我们已经经历过的这种令人讶异的快速城市化
01:16
that we have going on.
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进程。
01:18
By mid-century we'll be about 80 percent urban,
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到本世纪中叶将有大约80%要城市化。
01:22
and that's mostly in the developing world,
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而这主要是在发展中世界
01:25
where that's happening.
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要发生的事情。
01:27
It's interesting, because history is driven to a large degree
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有趣的是,在很大程度上
01:30
by the size of cities.
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城市的大小往往也决定了历史的发展
01:32
The developing world now has all of the biggest cities,
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现在最大的城市都在发展中国家
01:35
and they are developing three times faster than the developed countries,
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他们的发展比发达国家的发展快3倍。
01:38
and nine times bigger.
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规模是我们的9倍
01:40
It's qualitatively different.
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这是有质的不同。
01:43
They are the drivers of history, as we see by looking at history.
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当我们回顾历史时,它们是历史转变的驱动力。
01:45
1,000 years ago this is what the world looked like.
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一千年前的世界是什么样子。
01:49
Well we now have a distribution of urban power
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那么,我们现在有一个城市发展分布
01:52
similar to what we had 1,000 years ago.
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类似于我们在1000年前城市分布。
01:55
In other words, the rise of the West,
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换言之,西方的崛起,
01:57
dramatic as it was, is over.
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尽管有如一出戏剧,但它已经结束了。
02:01
The aggregate numbers are absolutely overwhelming:
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总人口数有压倒性的优势。
02:04
1.3 million people a week coming to town,
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每星期130万人来到城镇,
02:07
decade after decade.
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年复一年。
02:09
What's really going on?
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到底是怎么回事?
02:11
Well, what's going on is the villages of the world are emptying out.
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如今全球各地的村庄正变得荒芜起来
02:14
Subsistence farming is drying up basically.
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农田没人管,因为人都迁移到了城市
02:17
People are following opportunity into town.
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城市就是机会
02:19
And this is why.
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就这么简单
02:21
I used to have a very romantic idea about villages,
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我曾经有一个关于村庄很浪漫的看法,
02:23
and it's because I never lived in one.
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这是因为我从来没有在村庄居住过。
02:26
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
02:27
Because in town --
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因为在城市 -
02:29
this is the bustling squatter city
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这是熙熙攘攘的,寮屋搭建的基贝拉城
02:31
of Kibera, near Nairobi --
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它靠近内罗毕 -
02:35
they see action. They see opportunity.
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在城市,有活动,有机会。
02:37
They see a cash economy that they were not able to participate in
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有现金经济交易,使得人们不愿回归到
02:40
back in the subsistence farm.
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仅能维持生计的农业耕作上
02:43
As you go around these places there's plenty of aesthetics.
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去到那些地方,你会发现很多美丽的景象
02:45
There is plenty going on.
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还有很多事情发生。
02:47
They are poor, but they are intensely urban. And they are intensely creative.
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他们是穷人,但他们高度城市化,而且他们有很强的创造性。
02:51
The aggregate numbers now
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现在总人口数
02:53
are that basically squatters,
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基本是住寮屋的人,
02:56
all one billion of them, are building the urban world,
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他们中10亿人口正在建设他们的城市世界,
02:59
which means they're building the world --
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也意味着他们正在建设新世界。
03:02
personally, one by one, family by family,
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那是一种人与人的连结,一个接一个,一个家庭接一个家庭,
03:04
clan by clan, neighborhood by neighborhood.
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家族联系着家族,左邻右舍的。
03:07
They start flimsy and they get substantial as time goes by.
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他们开始举步维艰,随着时间的推移,他们取得实质性进展。
03:11
They even build their own infrastructure.
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他们甚至建立起他们自己的基础设施。
03:13
Well, steal their own infrastructure, at first.
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当然开始的时候是偷盗他们的基础设施,
03:16
Cable TV, water, the whole gamut, all gets stolen.
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有线电视,水,整个范围,所有都被侵占,
03:19
And then gradually gentrifies.
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然后逐渐修复改善。
03:23
It is not the case that slums undermine prosperity,
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贫民窟破坏繁荣,情况实际不是这样。
03:26
not the working slums; they help create prosperity.
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贫民窟的工作反而帮助创造繁荣。
03:30
So in a town like Mumbai, which is half slums,
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孟买,这个城市有一半的城市贫民区,
03:33
it's 1/6th of the GDP of India.
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但那里却创造了印度国内生产总值的六分之一。
03:36
Social capital in the slums is at its most urban and dense.
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贫民窟的社会资本是高度城市化和最密集的。
03:41
These people are valuable as a group.
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贫民窟里的人作为一个整体是最有价值的
03:44
And that's how they work.
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这也正是他们的组织形式
03:46
There is a lot of people who think about all these poor people,
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谈及贫民窟,很多人会想到
03:49
"Oh there's terrible things. We've got to fix their housing."
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“哦,那里太糟糕了。我们必须解决他们的住房问题。”
03:51
It used to be, "Oh we've got to get them phone service."
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还有“哦,我们得让他们有电话服务。”
03:53
Now they're showing us how they do their phone service.
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现在,他们向我们展示他们是如何做电话服务的。
03:56
Famine mostly is a rural event now.
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现在饥荒大多是农村的事情。
03:58
There are things they care about.
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贫民窟的居民关心的是这些事情。
04:00
And this is where we can help.
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而这正是我们可以帮助的方面。
04:03
And the nations they're in can help.
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政府也可以提供帮助。
04:05
And they are helping each other solve these issues.
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这样互相帮助,就可以解决类似问题。
04:08
And you go to a nice dense place like this slum in Mumbai.
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你去一个像孟买这样的密集贫民区。
04:12
You look at that lane on the right.
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你看关于右边的道路。
04:14
And you can ask, "Okay what's going on there?"
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你会问:“那会发生什么?”
04:16
The answer is, "Everything."
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答案是,“一切都在发生。”
04:19
This is better than a mall. It's much denser.
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这比一个商场好得多。它的密度大的多。
04:22
It's much more interactive.
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它更互动。
04:24
And the scale is terrific.
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规模惊人。
04:26
The main event is, these are not people crushed by poverty.
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关键是,人们不是被贫困折磨,
04:30
These are people busy getting out of poverty
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而是人们忙于拼命要摆脱贫困
04:32
just as fast as they can.
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尽他们所能,越快越好。
04:34
They're helping each other do it.
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他们互相帮助做到这一点。
04:36
They're doing it through an outlaw thing,
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他们通过非法去做的事情,
04:38
the informal economy.
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称为非正规经济。
04:40
The informal economy, it's sort of like dark energy in astrophysics:
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非正规经济,它好比在天体物理学里的暗能量。
04:44
it's not supposed to be there, but it's huge.
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这本不应该有的,但它是巨大的。
04:46
We don't understand how it works yet, but we have to.
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我们还不明白它是如何运作的。但我们必须理解。
04:49
Furthermore, people in the informal economy,
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此外,非正规经济,
04:51
the gray economy --
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或称灰色经济
04:53
as time goes by,
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里头的人
04:55
crime is happening around them. And they can join the criminal world,
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久而久之,也有可能走向犯罪。要么加入黑社会
04:59
or they can join the legitimate world.
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要么进入正常的法治社会
05:03
We should be able to make that choice
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我们应该可以帮助他们
05:05
easier for them to get toward the legitimate world,
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使得她们更容易走进法治社会
05:07
because if we don't, they will go toward the criminal world.
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因为如果我们不这样做,他们将成为黑社会的一员
05:11
There's all kinds of activity.
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这会有多种活动影响。
05:14
In Dharavi the slum performs not only
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在达拉维贫民窟不仅有
05:16
a lot of services for itself,
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很多为自己的服务,
05:18
but it performs services for the city at large.
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还为整个城市提供服务。
05:21
And one of the main events are these ad-hoc schools.
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主要活动之一是这些特设学校。
05:24
Parents pool their money to hire some local teachers
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家长集合钱去聘请一些地方教师
05:28
to a private, tiny, unofficial school.
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到一所小的,私人的,非官方学校教书。
05:30
Education is more possible in the cities, and that changes the world.
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在城市,教育是更有可能的,并改变了世界。
05:35
So you see some interesting, typical, urban things.
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所以你看到一些有趣的,典型的,城市的东西。
05:38
So one thing slammed up against another,
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贫民窟和富人区分别开来,
05:40
such as in Sao Paulo here.
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例如在圣保罗这里。
05:42
That's what cities do. That's how they create value,
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这就是城市所创造的价值,
05:44
is by slamming things together.
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有机地融合起来。
05:46
In this case, supply right next to demand.
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在这种情况下,供应需求紧密相连。
05:48
So the maids and the gardeners and the guards
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就如,在这个城市左边,有着活生生的生活。
05:50
that live in this lively part of town on the left
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这里生活的女佣、园丁和警卫人员
05:53
walk to work, in the boring, rich neighborhood.
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步行到一个枯燥,富有的邻居家工作。
05:58
Proximity is amazing.
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邻近性是惊人的。
06:01
We are learning about how dense proximity can be.
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我们正在研究这密集邻近性。
06:16
Connectivity between the city and the country
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城市和国家之间的邻近连接,
06:19
is what's going to keep the country good,
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会使国家变好趋于完善。
06:22
because the city has interesting ways of doing things.
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因为城市有很多有趣方法。
06:34
This is what makes cities --
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这可以使城市--
06:36
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
06:40
this is what makes cities so green in the developing world.
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这可以使发展中世界的城市变得更加绿色环保。
06:43
Because people leave the poverty trap, an ecological disaster
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因为人们要摆脱贫困陷阱,一个赖以生存的农业生态灾难
06:46
of subsistence farms, and head to town.
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而奔往城市。
06:49
And when they're gone the natural environment
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而当他们离开农村后,自然环境
06:51
starts to come back very rapidly.
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开始很快恢复。
06:53
And those who remain in the village can shift over to cash crops
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而那些留在乡村的人则可以种植经济作物
06:56
to send food to the new growing markets in town.
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并且将粮食卖到城市里去
07:00
So if you want to save a village, you do it with a good road,
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所以,如果你想保留一个村庄,你得有良好的道路,
07:03
or with a good cell phone connection, and ideally some grid electrical power.
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或有好的手机连接信号。最好配有一些电网电力。
07:07
So the event is: we're a city planet. That just happened.
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我们都在地球城市生活。这情况转变
07:10
More than half.
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已超过一半城市化。
07:12
The numbers are considerable. A billion live in the squatter cities now.
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这些数字是相当大的。 现在10亿人生活在城市的寮屋。
07:15
Another billion is expected.
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未来还将有10亿人要搬到城市
07:18
That's more than a sixth of humanity living a certain way.
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这超过六分之一的人们以他们的方式生活着。
07:21
And that will determine a lot of how we function.
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这将影响很大。
07:25
Now, for us environmentalists,
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现在,对于我们这些环保主义者来说,
07:27
maybe the greenest thing about the cities is they diffuse the population bomb.
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也许城市最环保的一点就是城市使得人口炸弹延迟引爆
07:30
People get into town.
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人们进入城市。
07:33
The immediately have fewer children.
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马上就想到不去生那么多孩子。
07:35
They don't even have to get rich yet. Just the opportunity of
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他们甚至还没有富起来。要在城市求得生存
07:38
coming up in the world means they will have fewer, higher-quality kids,
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就意味着少生优生
07:42
and the birthrate goes down radically.
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出生率于是急剧下降
07:44
Very interesting side effect here,
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还有其他有趣的副作用在发生
07:46
here's a slide from Phillip Longman.
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这是菲利普朗曼的一个幻灯片,
07:48
Shows what is happening.
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显示正在发生的事情。
07:50
As we have more and more old people, like me,
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当我们有越来越多的老人和我一样,
07:52
and fewer and fewer babies.
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越来越少的孩子出生。
07:54
And they are regionally separated.
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它们是区域分开的。
07:57
What you're getting is a world which is
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你会看到
07:59
old folks, and old cities, going around doing things the old way,
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在北半球,都是些老人、老城市
08:04
in the north.
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在按照传统的方式来生活
08:06
And young people in brand new cities they're inventing,
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而在发展中世界的新兴城市,年轻人们在创新,
08:09
doing new things, in the south.
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做些新鲜事情。
08:11
Where do you think the action is going to be?
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你认为这些转变将在哪发生?
08:14
Shift of subject. Quickly drop by climate.
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我要转移话题了。简单谈谈气候。
08:17
The climate news, I'm sorry to say, is going to keep getting worse
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我很抱歉地说,气候的消息比我们想象的恶化得厉害,
08:19
than we think, faster than we think.
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比我们所认为的变化快。
08:22
Climate is a profoundly complex, nonlinear system,
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气候是深刻复杂的,非线性系统,
08:24
full of runaway positive feedbacks,
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尽是失控的正反馈,
08:27
hidden thresholds and irrevocable tipping points.
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隐藏的阈值和不可逆转的临界点。
08:29
Here's just a few samples.
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这有些例子。
08:32
We're going to keep being surprised. And almost all
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我们会很惊讶。几乎所有的
08:34
the surprises are going to be bad ones.
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惊讶都是坏消息。
08:36
From your standpoint this means
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从政府的立场来考虑,这意味着
08:39
a great increase in climate refugees
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在未来几十年
08:41
over the coming decades,
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气候移民将大幅增加
08:43
and what goes along with that, which is resource wars
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随之而来的是资源的战争
08:46
and chaos wars,
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和因为缺水而引发的战争
08:48
as we're seeing in Darfur.
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就如我们在达尔富尔所看到的。
08:55
That's what drought does.
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这就是干旱造成的战争。
08:57
It brings carrying capacity down,
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承载能力随之下降。
08:59
and there's not enough carrying capacity
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没有足够的承载能力
09:01
to support the people. And then you're in trouble.
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支持该国人民。然后人们就有麻烦了。
09:04
Shift to the power situation.
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好,我们再谈谈能源问题。
09:07
Baseload electricity is what it takes to run a city,
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基荷电力是使得一个城市
09:10
or a city planet.
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或一个城市星球运转。
09:12
So far there is only three sources of baseload electricity:
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到目前为止,只有三种基荷电力资源,
09:16
coal, some gas,
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煤炭来源,一些石油,
09:19
nuclear and hydro.
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核能和水力发电。
09:21
Of those, only nuclear and hydro are green.
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其中,仅核能和水力发电是绿色环保的。
09:25
Coal is what is causing the climate problems.
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煤炭是造成气候问题的原因。
09:27
And everyone will keep burning it
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因为它是如此便宜,除非政府提高燃煤发电的价格
09:29
because it's so cheap, until governments make it expensive.
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否则每个人都会继续使用煤炭燃烧生电。
09:32
Wind and solar can't help, because so far we don't have a way to store that energy.
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风能和太阳能帮助不大,因为到目前为止,我们没有办法存储这些能量。
09:37
So with hydro maxed out,
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于是水力发电不能成为主要考虑的途径
09:40
coal and lose the climate,
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用煤电就会破坏气候,
09:43
or nuclear, which is the current operating low-carbon source,
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或者核能,这是当前可操作的低碳源,
09:46
and maybe save the climate.
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或许可以拯救气候。
09:48
And if we can eventually get good solar in space,
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如果我们最终可以很好的应用太阳能,
09:51
that also could help.
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这也可以帮助。
09:53
Because remember, this is what drives the prosperity in the developing world
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请记住,这可以推动发展中世界的乡村和城市
09:58
in the villages and in the cities.
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走向繁荣
10:01
So, between coal and nuclear,
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那么,就煤炭和核能之间,
10:03
compare their waste products.
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比较它们的废弃物。
10:05
If all of the electricity you used in your lifetime was nuclear,
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如果你一直都使用核能发电,
10:09
the amount of waste that would be added up
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废弃物的数量加起来
10:11
would fit in a Coke can.
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将等同于一罐可乐。
10:14
Whereas a coal-burning plant,
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而一个燃煤电厂,
10:16
a normal one gigawatt coal plant, burns 80 rail cars of coal a day,
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一个普通的,1千兆瓦的燃煤发电厂,每天燃烧80节煤炭轨道车。
10:20
each car having 100 tons.
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每节车厢有100吨。
10:23
And it puts 18 thousand tons
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它向空气中排放1.8万吨
10:25
of carbon dioxide in the air.
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二氧化碳。
10:29
So and then when you compare the lifetime emissions
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因此,当你就这些不同能源形式一生的排放量
10:31
of these various energy forms,
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比较一下
10:33
nuclear is about even with solar and wind,
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核电和太阳能和风能大致一样,
10:35
and ahead of solar --
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核能还领先于太阳能。
10:37
oh, I'm sorry -- with hydro and wind, and ahead of solar.
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噢,对不起。还有水电能和风能,领先于太阳能。
10:40
And does nuclear really compete with coal?
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核电能可以和煤电能竞争吗?
10:42
Just ask the coal miners in Australia.
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仅问问澳大利亚的煤矿工人就知道了。
10:44
That's where you see some of the source,
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这就是你们所看到的资源信息,
10:46
not from my fellow environmentalists,
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而不是从我的环保同事,
10:48
but from people who feel threatened by nuclear power.
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而是从那些感受到核电威胁的矿工那得知。
10:51
Well the good news is that
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那么好消息是,
10:53
the developing world, but frankly, the whole world,
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发展中世界,坦率地说,整个世界,
10:55
is busy building, and starting to build, nuclear reactors.
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是忙于建设,并开始建造核反应堆。
10:59
This is good for the atmosphere.
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这利于大气,
11:01
It's good for their prosperity.
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也利于繁荣。
11:03
I want to point out one interesting thing,
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我想指出一个有趣的事情,
11:05
which is that environmentalists like the thing we call micropower.
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那就是环保人士喜欢称之为微型反应堆的东西。
11:08
It's supposed to be, I don't know, local solar and wind and cogeneration,
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我不太确定,据说是当地太阳能和风能和热电联供发电
11:11
and good things like that.
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之类的东西。
11:13
But frankly micro-reactors which are just now coming on,
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但坦率地说现在刚开始有的微型反应堆
11:15
might serve even better.
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可能被更好地应用。
11:17
The Russians, who started this, are building floating reactors,
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在俄国北部,那里的冰融化,有了新通道
11:19
for their new passage, where the ice is melting, north of Russia.
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俄罗斯人开始在那建设浮动核反应堆
11:23
And they're selling these floating reactors,
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他们向发展中国家卖这些
11:26
only 35 megawatts, to developing countries.
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只有35兆瓦浮动核反应堆
11:30
Here's the design of an early one from Toshiba.
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下面是东芝早期的设计。
11:32
It's interesting, say, to take a 25-megawatt,
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这个很有趣,比如,它采取了25兆瓦,
11:35
25 million watts,
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2千5百万瓦特,
11:37
and you compare it to the standard big iron
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拿它和一般威斯汀豪斯或Ariva派的标准大铁块反应堆
11:39
of an ordinary Westinghouse or Ariva,
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比较一下
11:43
which is 1.2, 1.6 billion watts.
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它们通常是12亿到16亿瓦特
11:46
These things are way smaller. They're much more adaptable.
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这些就小得多,并且非常容易安装
11:50
Here's an American design from Lawrence Livermore Lab.
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这是美国劳伦斯利弗莫尔实验室的设计。
11:53
Here's another American design that came out
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这还有美国洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室开始研制另一款设计,
11:55
of Los Alamos, and is now commercial.
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现在它已经商业化。
11:58
Almost all of these are not only small, they are proliferation-proof.
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几乎所有这些不仅仅是小,并且可以避免核扩散的发生
12:00
They're typically buried in the ground.
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他们通常被埋在地下。
12:03
And the innovation is moving very rapidly.
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创新发展非常迅速。
12:05
So I think microreactors is going to be important for the future.
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所以我认为在未来微反应堆变得重要。
12:08
In terms of proliferation,
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在核扩散方面,
12:10
nuclear energy has done more
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核能发电事实上有助于核武器的消解
12:12
to dismantle nuclear weapons than any other activity.
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其他办法都比不上这个
12:15
And that's why 10 percent of the electricity in this room,
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这就是在这个会议室有百分之十
12:19
20 percent of electricity
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甚至百分之二十的电力
12:21
in this room is probably nuclear.
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可能是核电。
12:23
Half of that is coming from dismantled warheads from Russia,
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其中一半是来自俄罗斯拆除的核弹头。
12:27
soon to be joined by our dismantled warheads.
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不久也会有我们拆除的核弹头。
12:30
And so I would like to see the GNEP program,
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我想看到布什政府积极推进的
12:33
that was developed in the Bush administration, go forward aggressively.
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全球核能源合作计划能够继续推进
12:36
And I was glad to see that president Obama
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我也很高兴看到奥巴马总统前几周
12:38
supported the nuclear fuel bank strategy
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在布拉格讲到
12:41
when he spoke in Prague the other week.
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他支持核燃料银行的战略
12:43
One more subject. Genetically engineered food crops,
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再说另一个话题,就是转基因食品
12:46
in my view, as a biologist,
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作为一个生物学家,以我的观点,
12:48
have no reason to be controversial.
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转基因食品作物不会引起争议。
12:50
My fellow environmentalists, on this subject,
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我的环保同行在这个问题上,
12:52
have been irrational, anti-scientific, and very harmful.
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变得非理性,反科学的,那是十分有害的
12:56
Despite their best efforts,
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尽管他们尽了最大努力,
12:58
genetically engineered crops are the most
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转基因农作物是历史上
13:00
rapidly successful agricultural innovation in history.
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最迅速发展成功的农业创新。
13:04
They're good for the environment because they enable no-till farming,
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他们有利于环境的保护,因为它们免去了翻土的耕作
13:07
which leaves the soil in place,
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使得土壤年复一年
13:09
getting healthier from year to year --
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变得更加肥沃。
13:11
slso keeps less carbon dioxide going from the soil
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也不断减少二氧化碳从土壤中排放
13:13
into the atmosphere.
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到大气。
13:15
They reduce pesticide use.
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它们减少了农药的使用,
13:17
And they increase yield, which allows you to have your
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还增加产量
13:19
agricultural area be smaller,
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在面积比较小的土地上就收获很多的粮食。
13:22
and therefore more wild area is freed up.
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以致于让更多野外土地回归自然。
13:25
By the way, this map from 2006
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顺便说一下,2006年这张地图
13:27
is out of date because it shows Africa
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已经过时。但它显示
13:29
still under the thumb of Greenpeace,
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受绿色和平组织
13:31
and Friends of the Earth from Europe,
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和欧洲地球之友控制下的非洲。
13:34
and they're finally getting out from under that.
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他们最终摆脱那些控制。
13:36
And biotech is moving rapidly in Africa, at last.
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最后,生物技术正快速在非洲发展。
13:39
This is a moral issue.
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这是一个道德问题。
13:41
The Nuffield Council on Bioethics
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纳菲尔德生物伦理会议
13:43
met on this issue twice in great detail
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就这个问题详细讨论,并召开两次会议,
13:45
and said it is a moral imperative
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并表示这是一个道德责任,
13:47
to make genetically engineered crops readily available.
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并使转基因作物随时可应用。
13:50
Speaking of imperatives, geoengineering is taboo now,
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要讲到紧要事情,人工气候改造是一个禁忌话题
13:53
especially in government circles,
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特别是在政府内部
13:55
though I think there was a DARPA meeting on it a couple of weeks ago,
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但我知道就在几个星期前,美国国防高级研究规划局还为此开了一个会
13:57
but it will be on your plate --
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但地球工程是事关你的事情,
13:59
not this year but pretty soon,
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不是今年,但很快就会发生。
14:02
because some harsh realizations are coming along.
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因为一些严峻的事实随之显现出来。
14:05
This is a list of them.
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这是其中的一个清单。
14:07
Basically the news is going to keep getting more scary.
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事实上所知的会越来越可怕。
14:10
There will be events,
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将有一系列事件,
14:12
like 35,000 people dying of a heat wave,
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如前阵子发生
14:15
which happened a while back.
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35000人死于热浪
14:17
Like cyclones coming up toward Bangladesh.
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又如袭击孟加拉国的龙卷风。
14:20
Like wars over water,
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还有因为争夺水源而引发的战争
14:22
such as in the Indus.
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例如印度河水患。
14:24
And as those events keep happening
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由于这些事件不断发生,
14:26
we're going to say, "Okay, what can we do about that really?"
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我们可能会说,“好吧,我们到底能做些什么呢?”
14:28
But there's this little problem with geoengineering:
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但这是地球工程的小问题。
14:33
what body is going to decide
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哪一个机构来做出决定
14:37
who gets to engineer? How much they do? Where they do it?
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工程师是谁?他们做什么?他们在哪做?
14:39
Because everybody is downstream,
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因为不管这一气候改造工程结果如何
14:41
downwind of whatever is done.
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我们每个人到都将深受其影响
14:44
And if we just taboo it completely
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如果我们要完全将此作为禁忌话题的话
14:46
we could lose civilization.
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人类文明也有可能走向灭亡
14:48
But if we just say "OK,
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但假如我们说,“好吧
14:51
China, you're worried, you go ahead.
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中国,你要是担心的话,你先行动。
14:53
You geoengineer your way. We'll geoengineer our way."
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你们的地球工程有你们的方式。我们有我们自己的。
14:57
That would be considered an act of war by both nations.
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这就好比两国间的战争行为。
15:00
So this is very interesting diplomacy coming along.
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接下来是非常有趣的外交对话。
15:04
I should say, it is more practical than people think.
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但实际上要实现这样的工程比人们想象的要容易得多
15:07
Here is an example that climatologists like a lot,
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气候学家很关注下面的例子。
15:10
one of the dozens of geoengineering ideas.
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许多地球工程点子中的一个,
15:12
This one came from the sulfur dioxide
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1991年,皮纳图博火山喷发,
15:14
from Mount Pinatubo in 1991 --
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所喷出的二氧化硫
15:17
cooled the earth by half a degree.
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使得地球的温度降低了摄氏半度。
15:21
There was so much ice in 1992, the following year,
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第二年1992年,很多的冰
15:23
that there was a bumper crop of polar bear cubs
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才使北极熊幼仔丰产,
15:26
who were known as the Pinatubo cubs.
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它们取名皮纳图博北极熊宝宝。
15:28
To put sulfur dioxide in the stratosphere
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向平流层中排放二氧化硫
15:30
would cost on the order of a billion dollars a year.
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每年将花费10亿美元成本
15:33
That's nothing, compared to all of the other
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相对于我们有关能源可能要做的所有事情,
15:36
things we may be trying to do about energy.
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这真不算什么。
15:38
Just to run by another one:
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另一个应用的例子
15:41
this is a plan to brighten the reflectance of ocean clouds,
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计划是靠雾化海水
15:44
by atomizing seawater;
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使海洋云层反射更加活跃
15:46
that would brighten the albedo of the whole planet.
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这将影响整个地球的反照率。
15:48
A nice one, because it can happen
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因为它可以
15:50
lots of little ways in lots of little places,
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在许多很小的地方以很多不同方式发生
15:52
is by copying the ancient Amazon Indians
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一个好例子是仿照古代亚马逊印第安人
15:54
who made good agricultural soil
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通过热分解,不完全燃烧,植物废料
15:56
by pyrolizing, smoldering, plant waste,
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使农业土壤更肥沃
16:00
and biochar fixes large quantities of carbon
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生物炭替代大量的碳
16:03
while it's improving the soil.
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从而改善土壤。
16:05
So here is where we are.
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这是我们的准则。
16:08
Nobel Prize-winning climatologist Paul Crutzen
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诺贝尔奖得主气候学家保罗·克鲁岑
16:11
calls our geological era the Anthropocene,
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把我们现今这个地质时代称为人类世
16:14
the human-dominated era. We are stuck
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也就是说现在人类活动正在改变着地球的面貌
16:17
with its obligations.
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并且我们还将不得不继续完成这样的任务
16:20
In the Whole Earth Catalog, my first words were,
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在《地球目录》的第一句话是
16:22
"We are as Gods, and might as well get good at it."
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“我们就像上帝一样,也许我们可以做好这个角色。”
16:24
The first words of Whole Earth Discipline
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而《地球的法则》的第一句话是:
16:27
are, "We are as Gods, and have to get good at it."
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“我们就是上帝,我们必须做好这个角色。”
16:31
Thank you.
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谢谢。
16:33
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
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