4 environmental 'heresies' | Stewart Brand

Prevoditelj: Senzos Osijek Recezent: Mislav Ante Omazić - EFZG

Because of what I'm about to say,

Zbog onoga što namjeravam izreći,

I really should establish my green credentials.

stvarno vam moram dokazati svoja zelena uvjerenja.

When I was a small boy, I took my pledge

Kad sam bio maleni dječak, obavezao sam se

as an American, to save and faithfully defend from waste

kao Amerikanac čuvati i vjerno braniti od pustošenja

the natural resources of my country,

prirodne resurse svoje zemlje.

its air, soil and minerals, its forests, waters and wildlife.

Njen zrak, tlo i minerale, njene šume, vode i divljinu.

And I've stuck to that.

I na tome sam zaglavio.

Stanford, I majored in ecology and evolution.

Stanford, diplomirao sam ekologiju i evoluciju.

1968, I put out the Whole Earth Catalog. Was "mister natural" for a while.

1968. godine izdao sam "Katalog cijele Zemlje". Neko vrijeme bio sam "mister prirode".

And then worked for the Jerry Brown administration.

Onda sam radio za administraciju Jerryja Browna,

The Brown administration, and a bunch of my friends,

te sam s grupom prijatelja

basically leveled the energy efficiency of California,

zapravo ujednačio energetsku efikasnost Kalifornije.

so it's the same now, 30 years later,

Stoga je danas ista kao i prije trideset godina.

even though our economy has gone up 80 percent, per capita.

Iako je u međuvremenu naša ekonomija narasla za 80% po glavi stanovnika,

And we are putting out less greenhouse gasses than any other state.

Mi izbacujemo manje stakleničkih plinova nego ijedna druga država.

California is basically the equivalent of Europe, in this.

Kalifornija je u biti jednaka Europi, po tome.

This year, Whole Earth Catalog has a supplement that I'll preview today,

Ove godine, "Katalog cijele Zemlje" ima dodatak kojega danas prikazujem,

called Whole Earth Discipline.

nazvan "Disciplina cijele Zemlje".

The dominant demographic event of our time

Dominantni demografski događaj našega doba

is this screamingly rapid urbanization

je strahovito ubrzana urbanizacija

that we have going on.

u kojoj se sada nalazimo.

By mid-century we'll be about 80 percent urban,

Do sredine stoljeća biti ćemo oko 80% urbani.

and that's mostly in the developing world,

I to većinom u zemljama u razvoju,

where that's happening.

gdje se ovo događa.

It's interesting, because history is driven to a large degree

To je zanimljivo. Zato što u velikoj mjeri

by the size of cities.

veličina gradova pokreće povijest.

The developing world now has all of the biggest cities,

Zemlje u razvoju sada imaju sve najveće gradove.

and they are developing three times faster than the developed countries,

I one se razvijaju tri puta brže od razvijenih zemalja.

and nine times bigger.

I devet puta su veći.

It's qualitatively different.

To je kvalitativna razlika.

They are the drivers of history, as we see by looking at history.

One su pokretači povijesti, a to vidimo promatrajući povijest.

1,000 years ago this is what the world looked like.

Prije 1.000 godina svijet je izgledao ovako.

Well we now have a distribution of urban power

Sada imamo raspodjelu urbanih sila

similar to what we had 1,000 years ago.

sličnu onoj prije 1.000 godina.

In other words, the rise of the West,

Drugim riječima, uspon Zapada,

dramatic as it was, is over.

dramatičan kakav je bio, završen je.

The aggregate numbers are absolutely overwhelming:

Zbirne brojke apsolutno su moćne.

1.3 million people a week coming to town,

1.3 milijuna ljudi tjedno dolazilo je u grad,

decade after decade.

desetljeće za desetljećem.

What's really going on?

Što se ustvari događa?

Well, what's going on is the villages of the world are emptying out.

Dakle, događa se pražnjenje sela širom svijeta.

Subsistence farming is drying up basically.

U suštini presušuje poljodjelstvo namijenjeno prehrani vlastite obitelji.

People are following opportunity into town.

Ljudi slijede povoljne prilike u gradove.

And this is why.

A evo zašto.

I used to have a very romantic idea about villages,

Nekada sam imao vrlo romantične ideje o selu

and it's because I never lived in one.

a to je zato što nikad nisam živio u nekom.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Because in town --

Zato što u gradu –

this is the bustling squatter city

ovo je bučni ilegalni grad

of Kibera, near Nairobi --

Kibera, u blizini Nairobia.

they see action. They see opportunity.

Oni vide akciju. Oni vide mogućnosti.

They see a cash economy that they were not able to participate in

Oni vide monetarnu ekonomiju u kojoj nisu bili sposobni sudjelovati

back in the subsistence farm.

iz pozadine samoprehranjujućih farmi.

As you go around these places there's plenty of aesthetics.

Kada se prošećete po tim mjestima evidentno je obilje estetike.

There is plenty going on.

Svašta se događa.

They are poor, but they are intensely urban. And they are intensely creative.

Oni su siromašni, ali su intenzivno urbani. I intenzivno su kreativni.

The aggregate numbers now

Zbirne brojke govore kako

are that basically squatters,

u osnovi ilegalci,

all one billion of them, are building the urban world,

milijarda njih, grade urbani svijet.

which means they're building the world --

Ovo znači da oni zidaju urbani svijet.

personally, one by one, family by family,

Osobno, jedan po jedan, obitelj po obitelj,

clan by clan, neighborhood by neighborhood.

klan za klanom, susjedstvo za susjedstvom.

They start flimsy and they get substantial as time goes by.

Započnu neprimjetno i postanu značajni kako vrijeme prolazi.

They even build their own infrastructure.

Oni čak grade vlastitu infrastrukturu.

Well, steal their own infrastructure, at first.

Ustvari, ukradu vlastitu infrastrukturu, u početku.

Cable TV, water, the whole gamut, all gets stolen.

Kablovsku TV, vodu, cijela skala, sve ukradeno.

And then gradually gentrifies.

A onda polako postaju srednja klasa.

It is not the case that slums undermine prosperity,

U stvari slamovi ne potkopavaju prosperitet.

not the working slums; they help create prosperity.

Neradnički slamovi, oni pomažu stvoriti ga.

So in a town like Mumbai, which is half slums,

Tako gradovi poput Mumbaia, čiju polovinu čine slamovi,

it's 1/6th of the GDP of India.

predstavlja 1/6 BDP-a Indije.

Social capital in the slums is at its most urban and dense.

Socijalni kapital tih slamova je najurbaniji i najgušći.

These people are valuable as a group.

Ti su ljudi dragocjeni kao grupa.

And that's how they work.

I tako oni djeluju.

There is a lot of people who think about all these poor people,

Mnogo je ljudi koji razmišljaju o svim tim siromašnim ljudima.

"Oh there's terrible things. We've got to fix their housing."

"O, to je strašno. Moramo srediti njihovo stanovanje."

It used to be, "Oh we've got to get them phone service."

Nekad je bilo: "O moramo im riješiti telefonske instalacije."

Now they're showing us how they do their phone service.

Sad oni pokazuju nama kako se rade telefonske usluge.

Famine mostly is a rural event now.

Oskudica je danas uglavnom ruralno događanje.

There are things they care about.

Postoje stvari do kojih im je stalo.

And this is where we can help.

I to je ono u čemu mi možemo pomoći.

And the nations they're in can help.

I nacije u kojima oni jesu mogu pomoći.

And they are helping each other solve these issues.

I oni pomažu jedni drugima riješiti ovu problematiku.

And you go to a nice dense place like this slum in Mumbai.

I onda odete u krasno gusto naseljeno mjesto kakav je ovaj slam u Mumbaiju.

You look at that lane on the right.

Pogledajte onaj red na desno.

And you can ask, "Okay what's going on there?"

I možete pitati: "No dobro što se tamo događa?“

The answer is, "Everything."

Odgovor je: "Sve."

This is better than a mall. It's much denser.

To je bolje od šoping centra. Mnogo je gušće.

It's much more interactive.

Više je interaktivno.

And the scale is terrific.

A raspon je nevjerojatan.

The main event is, these are not people crushed by poverty.

Glavni događaj je, ovo nisu ljudi shrvani siromaštvom.

These are people busy getting out of poverty

Ovo su ljudi zaposleni izlaženjem iz siromaštva

just as fast as they can.

onoliko brzo koliko se može.

They're helping each other do it.

Oni pomažu jedni drugima učiniti to.

They're doing it through an outlaw thing,

Čine to protuzakonito,

the informal economy.

neformalnom ekonomijom.

The informal economy, it's sort of like dark energy in astrophysics:

neformalnoj ekonomiji je nešto kao tamna energija u astrofizici.

it's not supposed to be there, but it's huge.

Ne bi trebala biti tamo, ali je ogromna.

We don't understand how it works yet, but we have to.

Još ne razumijemo kako funkcionira. Ali morat ćemo.

Furthermore, people in the informal economy,

Nadalje, ljudi u neformalnoj ekonomiji,

the gray economy --

sivoj ekonomiji,

as time goes by,

kako vrijeme prolazi,

crime is happening around them. And they can join the criminal world,

kriminal se događa oko njih. I oni se mogu pridružiti svijetu kriminala.

or they can join the legitimate world.

Ili se mogu pridružiti legitimnom svijetu.

We should be able to make that choice

Mi bismo trebali biti u stanju učiniti im izbor

easier for them to get toward the legitimate world,

prema legitimnom svijetu lakšim.

because if we don't, they will go toward the criminal world.

Zato što će u suprotnom otići prema svijetu kriminala.

There's all kinds of activity.

Postoje sve moguće vrste aktivnosti.

In Dharavi the slum performs not only

U Dharavi slamovi rade ne samo

a lot of services for itself,

puno uslužnih djelatnosti sebi samima,

but it performs services for the city at large.

nego i gradu u cjelini.

And one of the main events are these ad-hoc schools.

A jedno od glavnih događanja su te ad hoc škole.

Parents pool their money to hire some local teachers

Roditelji sakupe svoj novac kako bi zaposlili lokalne učitelje

to a private, tiny, unofficial school.

za privatne, malene, neslužbene škole.

Education is more possible in the cities, and that changes the world.

Za edukaciju ima više mogućnosti u gradovima. A to mijenja svijet.

So you see some interesting, typical, urban things.

I sad vidite neke zanimljive, tipično urbane stvari.

So one thing slammed up against another,

I tako se stvari sudaraju jedna s drugom,

such as in Sao Paulo here.

kao što je to ovdje u Sao Paulu.

That's what cities do. That's how they create value,

To je ono što rade gradovi. Tako oni stvaraju dobit,

is by slamming things together.

sudaranjem stvari jednih o druge.

In this case, supply right next to demand.

U ovom slučaju, ponuda odmah pored potražnje.

So the maids and the gardeners and the guards

Kao i služavke i vrtlari i čuvari

that live in this lively part of town on the left

koji žive u ovom živopisnom dijelu grada na lijevoj

walk to work, in the boring, rich neighborhood.

stazi prema poslu, u dosadnom, bogatom susjedstvu.

Proximity is amazing.

Blizina je fantastična.

We are learning about how dense proximity can be.

Upravo učimo koliko gusta može biti blizina.

Connectivity between the city and the country

Povezanost između grada i pokrajine

is what's going to keep the country good,

je ono što će pokrajinu učiniti dobrom.

because the city has interesting ways of doing things.

Zato što grad ima zanimljive načine obavljanja stvari.

This is what makes cities --

To je ono što stvara gradove -

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

this is what makes cities so green in the developing world.

Ovo je to što gradove čini tako zelenima u zemljama u razvoju.

Because people leave the poverty trap, an ecological disaster

Zato što ljudi napuštaju zamku siromaštva, ekološku propast

of subsistence farms, and head to town.

poljodjelstva za vlastite potrebe i žure u grad.

And when they're gone the natural environment

A kada odu prirodni okoliš se jako

starts to come back very rapidly.

brzo oporavlja.

And those who remain in the village can shift over to cash crops

A oni koji su ostali u selu mogu se prebaciti na urode kojima se zarađuje

to send food to the new growing markets in town.

i slati hranu na nove, rastuće tržnice u gradu.

So if you want to save a village, you do it with a good road,

I zato ako želite spasiti sela, napravite to sa dobrim cestama

or with a good cell phone connection, and ideally some grid electrical power.

ili sa dobrim telefonskim vezama. A idealno bi bilo i nešto električne mreže.

So the event is: we're a city planet. That just happened.

I tako se događa, mi smo planet gradova. To se samo dogodilo.

More than half.

Više od polovice.

The numbers are considerable. A billion live in the squatter cities now.

Brojke su ogromne. Milijarda ljudi danas živi u ilegalnim gradovima.

Another billion is expected.

Druga se očekuje.

That's more than a sixth of humanity living a certain way.

Više od jedne šestine čovječanstva živi na ovaj način.

And that will determine a lot of how we function.

A ovo će odrediti većinu toga kako ćemo funkcionirati.

Now, for us environmentalists,

Sada, za nas zaštitare okoliša,

maybe the greenest thing about the cities is they diffuse the population bomb.

možda je najzelenija stvar oko gradova raspršenje populacijske bombe.

People get into town.

Ljudi dođu u grad.

The immediately have fewer children.

Odmah imaju manje djece.

They don't even have to get rich yet. Just the opportunity of

Čak se ne moraju još niti obogatiti. Sama prilika da se

coming up in the world means they will have fewer, higher-quality kids,

iziđe u svijet već znači da će imati manje visoko-kvalitetne djece,

and the birthrate goes down radically.

a natalitet drastično pada.

Very interesting side effect here,

Vrlo zanimljiva nuspojava,

here's a slide from Phillip Longman.

ovo je slajd Phillip Longmana.

Shows what is happening.

Pokazuje što se događa.

As we have more and more old people, like me,

Kako imamo sve više starih ljudi, poput mene,

and fewer and fewer babies.

i sve manje i manje djece.

And they are regionally separated.

A oni su i regionalno odijeljeni.

What you're getting is a world which is

Ono što sada vidite je svijet

old folks, and old cities, going around doing things the old way,

starih ljudi, i starih gradova, koji se šeću uokolo i rade stvari na stari način,

in the north.

na sjeveru.

And young people in brand new cities they're inventing,

I mladi ljudi u sasvim novim gradovima koji investiraju,

doing new things, in the south.

rade nove stvari, na jugu.

Where do you think the action is going to be?

Što vam se čini gdje će biti akcije?

Shift of subject. Quickly drop by climate.

Promijenimo temu. Brzo prijeđimo na klimu.

The climate news, I'm sorry to say, is going to keep getting worse

Vijesti će o klimi, žao mi je to reći, pogoršavati

than we think, faster than we think.

više nego što mislimo, brže nego što mislimo.

Climate is a profoundly complex, nonlinear system,

Klima je duboko kompleksan, nelinearni sustav,

full of runaway positive feedbacks,

pun povratnih veza koje ne podliježu kontroli,

hidden thresholds and irrevocable tipping points.

skrivenih graničnih i neopozivih točaka preokreta.

Here's just a few samples.

Evo samo nekoliko primjera.

We're going to keep being surprised. And almost all

Mi se nastavljamo iznenađivati. I gotovo sva ta

the surprises are going to be bad ones.

iznenađenja će biti loša.

From your standpoint this means

S vaše točke gledišta ovo znači

a great increase in climate refugees

veliko povećanje klimatskih izbjeglica

over the coming decades,

u narednim desetljećima.

and what goes along with that, which is resource wars

A ono što ide s tim, izvorište ratova i

and chaos wars,

kaosa ratova,

as we're seeing in Darfur.

kao što to vidimo u Darfuru.

That's what drought does.

To je ono što čini suša.

It brings carrying capacity down,

Spušta kapacitet opstanka.

and there's not enough carrying capacity

A ovdje nema dovoljno kapaciteta opstanka

to support the people. And then you're in trouble.

da bi podržao te ljude. I onda ste u nevolji.

Shift to the power situation.

Prijeđimo na situaciju s energijom.

Baseload electricity is what it takes to run a city,

Pogon osnovnog opterećenje električnog sustava pokreće gradove,

or a city planet.

odnosno planet gradova.

So far there is only three sources of baseload electricity:

Za sada postoje samo tri izvora pogona električnog sustava –

coal, some gas,

ugljen, neki plinovi,

nuclear and hydro.

nuklearna i hidroenergija.

Of those, only nuclear and hydro are green.

Od ovih, samo su nuklearna i hidroenergija zelene.

Coal is what is causing the climate problems.

Ugljen je ono što izaziva klimatološke probleme.

And everyone will keep burning it

I svi će ga nastaviti sagorijevati

because it's so cheap, until governments make it expensive.

jer je tako jeftin, sve dok ga vlade ne učine skupim.

Wind and solar can't help, because so far we don't have a way to store that energy.

Vjetar i solarna energija ne mogu pomoći jer za sada nemamo načina da uskladištimo tu energiju.

So with hydro maxed out,

Tako možemo s hidroenergijom podignutom do maksimuma

coal and lose the climate,

i ugljenom, izgubiti klimu,

or nuclear, which is the current operating low-carbon source,

ili nuklearnom, što je trenutačni operativni nisko-ugljični izvor,

and maybe save the climate.

možda spasiti klimu.

And if we can eventually get good solar in space,

I ako bi smo na kraju dobili dobar solarni pogon,

that also could help.

to bi moglo pomoći.

Because remember, this is what drives the prosperity in the developing world

Zato što, sjetite se, to je ono što pokreće prosperitet u zemljama u razvoju,

in the villages and in the cities.

u selima i gradovima.

So, between coal and nuclear,

Tako, između ugljena i nuklearne energije,

compare their waste products.

usporedimo njihove otpadne produkte.

If all of the electricity you used in your lifetime was nuclear,

Da je sva struja koju ste koristili u svom životu proizvedena u nuklearki,

the amount of waste that would be added up

količina smeća koju bi pridonijeli

would fit in a Coke can.

stala bi u limenku Cole.

Whereas a coal-burning plant,

Dok centrala na ugljen,

a normal one gigawatt coal plant, burns 80 rail cars of coal a day,

jedna normalna od elektrana od gigawata, sagorijeva 80 vagona ugljena dnevno.

each car having 100 tons.

Svaki vagon teži 100 tona.

And it puts 18 thousand tons

A izbacuje 18 tisuća tona

of carbon dioxide in the air.

ugljičnog dioksida u zrak.

So and then when you compare the lifetime emissions

I tako kad usporedite emisiju

of these various energy forms,

iz različitih formi energije tijekom vijeka trajanja,

nuclear is about even with solar and wind,

nuklearna je otprilike jednaka vjetru i solarnoj.

and ahead of solar --

I ispred solarne.

oh, I'm sorry -- with hydro and wind, and ahead of solar.

O, oprostite. S vodom i vjetrom, a ispred solarne.

And does nuclear really compete with coal?

Konkurira li nuklearna energija ugljenu?

Just ask the coal miners in Australia.

Samo pitajte rudare u Australiji.

That's where you see some of the source,

Tamo ćete biti na izvorištu,

not from my fellow environmentalists,

ne kod mojih kolega ekologa,

but from people who feel threatened by nuclear power.

nego kod ljudi koji se osjećaju ugroženi nuklearnom energijom.

Well the good news is that

No dobra je vijest da

the developing world, but frankly, the whole world,

su zemlje u razvoju, ma ustvari cijeli svijet,

is busy building, and starting to build, nuclear reactors.

zaposleni gradnjom ili počinju graditi, nuklearne reaktore.

This is good for the atmosphere.

To je dobro za atmosferu.

It's good for their prosperity.

To je dobro za njihov prosperitet.

I want to point out one interesting thing,

Želim naglasiti jednu zanimljivu stvar,

which is that environmentalists like the thing we call micropower.

a to je da ekolozi vole stvar koju nazivamo mikrocentrala.

It's supposed to be, I don't know, local solar and wind and cogeneration,

To bi trebala biti, ne znam, lokalna solarna energija plus vjetar i kogeneracija

and good things like that.

to dvoje i druge dobre stvari poput toga.

But frankly micro-reactors which are just now coming on,

No iskreno mikro-reaktori koji upravo dolaze,

might serve even better.

mogu poslužiti još bolje.

The Russians, who started this, are building floating reactors,

Rusi, koji su krenuli s tim, grade ploveće reaktore

for their new passage, where the ice is melting, north of Russia.

za svoje nove prolaze tamo gdje se topi led, sjeverno od Rusije.

And they're selling these floating reactors,

A oni i prodaju te ploveće reaktore,

only 35 megawatts, to developing countries.

samo 35 megavata, zemljama u razvoju.

Here's the design of an early one from Toshiba.

Ovo je dizajn jedne rane od Toshibe.

It's interesting, say, to take a 25-megawatt,

Zanimljivo, uzmimo recimo 25 megavata,

25 million watts,

25 milijuna vata,

and you compare it to the standard big iron

i usporedimo to sa standardnim velikim željeznim reaktorom

of an ordinary Westinghouse or Ariva,

obično od Westinghouse ili Ariva,

which is 1.2, 1.6 billion watts.

koji je 1.2, 1.6 milijardi vata.

These things are way smaller. They're much more adaptable.

Te su stvari red veličine manje. One su mnogo prilagodljivije.

Here's an American design from Lawrence Livermore Lab.

Ovdje je jedan američki dizajn od Lawrence Livermore Lab.

Here's another American design that came out

Ovdje je još jedan američki dizajn koji dolazi

of Los Alamos, and is now commercial.

iz Los Alamosa, i sada je komercijalan.

Almost all of these are not only small, they are proliferation-proof.

Gotovo svi oni nisu samo mali, nego su i zaštićeni od širenja.

They're typically buried in the ground.

Obično su ukopani u zemlju.

And the innovation is moving very rapidly.

A inovacije brzo napreduju.

So I think microreactors is going to be important for the future.

Tako ja mislim kako će mikroreaktori biti važni za budućnost.

In terms of proliferation,

U smislu širenja,

nuclear energy has done more

nuklearna energija je učinila više

to dismantle nuclear weapons than any other activity.

na razmontiravanju nuklearnog oružja od bilo koje druge aktivnosti.

And that's why 10 percent of the electricity in this room,

I baš zato 10% struje u ovoj prostoriji,

20 percent of electricity

20% struje

in this room is probably nuclear.

u ovoj prostoriji vjerojatno dolazi od nuklearki.

Half of that is coming from dismantled warheads from Russia,

Polovina ovoga dolazi iz razmontiranih bojevih glava iz Rusije.

soon to be joined by our dismantled warheads.

Uskoro će biti pridružene našim bojevim glavama.

And so I would like to see the GNEP program,

I ja bih volio vidjeti GNEP program,

that was developed in the Bush administration, go forward aggressively.

koji je bio razvijen za vrijeme Bushove administracije, kako agresivno napreduje.

And I was glad to see that president Obama

I bio sam presretan kad sam vidio kako predsjednik Obama

supported the nuclear fuel bank strategy

podržava strategiju banke nuklearnog goriva

when he spoke in Prague the other week.

u svom govoru u Pragu prošloga tjedna.

One more subject. Genetically engineered food crops,

Još jedna stvar. Genetički modificirane prehrambene biljke,

in my view, as a biologist,

s mog gledišta, kao biologa,

have no reason to be controversial.

nemaju razloga biti kontroverzne.

My fellow environmentalists, on this subject,

Moji kolege ekolozi, po ovom pitanju,

have been irrational, anti-scientific, and very harmful.

bili su iracionalni, ne-znanstveni i vrlo štetni.

Despite their best efforts,

Uprkos njihovim najboljim naporima,

genetically engineered crops are the most

genetički modificirane biljke su najuspješnija

rapidly successful agricultural innovation in history.

agrikulturna inovacija u povijesti.

They're good for the environment because they enable no-till farming,

One su dobre za okoliš zato što omogućavaju poljodjelstvo bez kopanja,

which leaves the soil in place,

koje tlo ostavlja na mjestu,

getting healthier from year to year --

što ga čini zdravijim iz godine u godinu.

slso keeps less carbon dioxide going from the soil

Osim toga smanjuju količinu ugljičnog dioksida koji iz tla

into the atmosphere.

dospijeva u atmosferu.

They reduce pesticide use.

Smanjuju korištenje pesticida.

And they increase yield, which allows you to have your

I povećavaju urod, što vam omogućuje da smanjite

agricultural area be smaller,

poljodjelsku površinu.

and therefore more wild area is freed up.

I tako se oslobađa prostor za divljinu.

By the way, this map from 2006

Na primjer, ova karta iz 2006. godine

is out of date because it shows Africa

je zastarjela jer još uvijek prikazuje Afriku

still under the thumb of Greenpeace,

pod palcem Greenpeace-a

and Friends of the Earth from Europe,

i Prijatelja prirode iz Europe.

and they're finally getting out from under that.

I oni konačno izlaze iz toga.

And biotech is moving rapidly in Africa, at last.

A biotehnologija ubrzano ulazi u Afriku, konačno.

This is a moral issue.

To je moralno pitanje.

The Nuffield Council on Bioethics

Nuffieldski sabor bioetike

met on this issue twice in great detail

sastao se zbog tog problema dva puta i detaljno raspravljao

and said it is a moral imperative

te zaključio kako je moralni imperativ

to make genetically engineered crops readily available.

učiniti genetički modificirane usjeve ubrzano dostupnima.

Speaking of imperatives, geoengineering is taboo now,

Govoreći o imperativima, geoinženjering je sada tabu,

especially in government circles,

posebno u krugovima vlasti,

though I think there was a DARPA meeting on it a couple of weeks ago,

mada ja mislim da je bio DARPA sastanak prije par tjedana na tu temu.

but it will be on your plate --

Ali to će vam biti predstavljeno,

not this year but pretty soon,

ne ove godine, ali prilično skoro.

because some harsh realizations are coming along.

Zato što neke surove realizacije dolaze s tim.

This is a list of them.

Ovo je njihov popis.

Basically the news is going to keep getting more scary.

U osnovi vijesti nastavljaju biti sve više zastrašujuće.

There will be events,

Događat će se stvari,

like 35,000 people dying of a heat wave,

poput 35.000 mrtvih u toplotnom udaru,

which happened a while back.

kakav se nedavno dogodio.

Like cyclones coming up toward Bangladesh.

Kao cikloni koji idu prema Bangladešu.

Like wars over water,

Kao ratovi oko vode,

such as in the Indus.

kao oni oko rijeke Indus.

And as those events keep happening

I kako se te stvari događaju

we're going to say, "Okay, what can we do about that really?"

mi ćemo reći: "U redu, što se stvarno može s tim napraviti?"

But there's this little problem with geoengineering:

Ali postoji taj mali problem s geoinženjeringom.

what body is going to decide

Što će tijelo odlučiti?

who gets to engineer? How much they do? Where they do it?

Čiji će biti inženjeri? Koliko će napraviti? Gdje će to napraviti?

Because everybody is downstream,

Zato što su svi nizvodno,

downwind of whatever is done.

nizvodno od svega što je učinjeno.

And if we just taboo it completely

I ako to samo potpuno tabuiziramo

we could lose civilization.

mogli bismo izgubiti civilizaciju.

But if we just say "OK,

No, ako samo kažemo OK,

China, you're worried, you go ahead.

Kina, vi ste zabrinuti, vi vodite.

You geoengineer your way. We'll geoengineer our way."

Vi napravite geoinženjering na svoj način. Mi ćemo napraviti svoj geoinženjering.

That would be considered an act of war by both nations.

Ovo bi se smatralo objavom rata od strane obje nacije.

So this is very interesting diplomacy coming along.

I tako neka vrlo zanimljiva diplomacija dolazi s tim.

I should say, it is more practical than people think.

Ja bih rekao, ovo je praktičnije nego što ljudi misle.

Here is an example that climatologists like a lot,

Ovo je primjer koji se jako sviđa klimatolozima.

one of the dozens of geoengineering ideas.

Jedna od brojnih geoinžinjerskih ideja.

This one came from the sulfur dioxide

Ona dolazi od sumpornog dioksida

from Mount Pinatubo in 1991 --

iz Mount Pinatubo iz 1991. godine.

cooled the earth by half a degree.

Ohladila je Zemlju za pola stupnja.

There was so much ice in 1992, the following year,

Ovoliko je bilo leda 1992. godine, naredne godine,

that there was a bumper crop of polar bear cubs

došlo je do neočekivanog porasta broja mladunčadi polarnog medvjeda

who were known as the Pinatubo cubs.

koja su prozvana Pinatubo mladunčad.

To put sulfur dioxide in the stratosphere

Staviti sumporni dioksid u stratosferu

would cost on the order of a billion dollars a year.

koštalo bi otprilike milijardu dolara godišnje.

That's nothing, compared to all of the other

To je ništa u usporedbi sa svim ostalim stvarima

things we may be trying to do about energy.

koje pokušavamo učiniti oko energije.

Just to run by another one:

Samo da prođemo kroz drugu ideju,

this is a plan to brighten the reflectance of ocean clouds,

ovo je plan kako posvijetliti refleksiju oceanskih oblaka

by atomizing seawater;

atomiziranjem morske vode.

that would brighten the albedo of the whole planet.

Ovo bi posvijetlilo, povećalo koeficijent refleksije cijeloga planeta.

A nice one, because it can happen

Vrlo lijepo, jer bi se to moglo napraviti

lots of little ways in lots of little places,

na mnogo različitih načina, na mnogo malih mjesta,

is by copying the ancient Amazon Indians

kopiranjem amazonskih indijanaca

who made good agricultural soil

koji su proizvodili dobro poljoprivredno tlo

by pyrolizing, smoldering, plant waste,

pirolizom, paljenjem biljnog otpada.

and biochar fixes large quantities of carbon

I biougljen (ugljen nastao pirolizom biomase) fiksira velike količine ugljika

while it's improving the soil.

i pri tome poboljšava kvalitetu tla.

So here is where we are.

I evo gdje smo sada.

Nobel Prize-winning climatologist Paul Crutzen

Nobelovac, klimatolog Paul Crutzen

calls our geological era the Anthropocene,

zove našu geološku eru Antropocen –

the human-dominated era. We are stuck

era dominacije ljudi. Mi smo zaglavili

with its obligations.

s tom obavezom.

In the Whole Earth Catalog, my first words were,

U "Katalogu cijele Zemlje", moj su prve riječi bile:

"We are as Gods, and might as well get good at it."

"Mi smo poput bogova, i mogli bismo postati dobri u tome."

The first words of Whole Earth Discipline

Prve riječi u "Disciplini cijele Zemlje"

are, "We are as Gods, and have to get good at it."

su: "Mi smo poput bogova i moramo postati dobri u tome."

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)