4 environmental 'heresies' | Stewart Brand

82,947 views ・ 2009-07-13

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譯者: K. C. Peng 審譯者: Nova Upinel Altesse
00:16
Because of what I'm about to say,
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由於我接下來所要說的,
00:18
I really should establish my green credentials.
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我實在應該建立一點我的綠色憑證。
00:21
When I was a small boy, I took my pledge
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當我還是一個小男孩時,我曾向自己立下誓言
00:23
as an American, to save and faithfully defend from waste
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作為一個美國人,我要保存我的國家
00:26
the natural resources of my country,
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要忠實捍衛我國自然資源,免於浪費
00:28
its air, soil and minerals, its forests, waters and wildlife.
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要保存這片土地上的空氣,土壤,礦物,森林,水,和野生動物
00:31
And I've stuck to that.
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而我也堅守這個承諾
00:33
Stanford, I majored in ecology and evolution.
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在史丹福大學,我主修生態學和演化論
00:37
1968, I put out the Whole Earth Catalog. Was "mister natural" for a while.
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1968年我創辦雜誌《Whole Earth Catalog》。有人叫我了一陣子"自然先生"
00:41
And then worked for the Jerry Brown administration.
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接着我替Jerry Brown政府做事
00:44
The Brown administration, and a bunch of my friends,
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Jerry Brown的團隊和我一群朋友
00:47
basically leveled the energy efficiency of California,
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成功地提升整個加州的能源效率
00:50
so it's the same now, 30 years later,
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同現在三十年後的水準一樣,
00:53
even though our economy has gone up 80 percent, per capita.
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儘管我們的經濟在人均發展上已成長了百分之八十
00:57
And we are putting out less greenhouse gasses than any other state.
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我們的溫室氣體排放比任何其他州都還要低
01:00
California is basically the equivalent of Europe, in this.
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加州在現在的排放水平基本上與歐洲相等
01:03
This year, Whole Earth Catalog has a supplement that I'll preview today,
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我預告一下今年《Whole Earth Catalog》要出的特刊
01:08
called Whole Earth Discipline.
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標題叫"全球紀律"
01:11
The dominant demographic event of our time
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我們這時代最重要的人口事件
01:13
is this screamingly rapid urbanization
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就是持續驚人的
01:16
that we have going on.
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都市化速度
01:18
By mid-century we'll be about 80 percent urban,
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到本世紀中葉我們將有百分之八十的人口聚居在城市
01:22
and that's mostly in the developing world,
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而且大多數都會發生在
01:25
where that's happening.
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開發中國家。
01:27
It's interesting, because history is driven to a large degree
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這很有趣。因為歷史在很大程度上都是由
01:30
by the size of cities.
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城市的規模所推動的。
01:32
The developing world now has all of the biggest cities,
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現在,發展中國家擁有所有這些最大的城市
01:35
and they are developing three times faster than the developed countries,
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它們正以已開發國家三倍的速度成長中
01:38
and nine times bigger.
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而且相當於九倍大的規模
01:40
It's qualitatively different.
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這在質的方面是不同的
01:43
They are the drivers of history, as we see by looking at history.
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它們是歷史的推動者,正如我們所看到的人類歷史
01:45
1,000 years ago this is what the world looked like.
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1000多年前,世界看起來是這個樣子的
01:49
Well we now have a distribution of urban power
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現在我們有城市供電網
01:52
similar to what we had 1,000 years ago.
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我們1000多年前是差不多的
01:55
In other words, the rise of the West,
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換句話說,西方的興起,
01:57
dramatic as it was, is over.
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過去戲劇性的一切,已經結束了
02:01
The aggregate numbers are absolutely overwhelming:
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壓倒性的總人口數是絕對無法抵擋的
02:04
1.3 million people a week coming to town,
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每週130萬人來到城裡
02:07
decade after decade.
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年復一年
02:09
What's really going on?
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這是怎麼一回事?
02:11
Well, what's going on is the villages of the world are emptying out.
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實際上,全世界的村落都已經空無一人
02:14
Subsistence farming is drying up basically.
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自給自足的農業基本上全枯竭了
02:17
People are following opportunity into town.
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人們進城找機會
02:19
And this is why.
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這就是原因。
02:21
I used to have a very romantic idea about villages,
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我以前對農村一直懷有非常浪漫的想像,
02:23
and it's because I never lived in one.
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因為我從來沒住過那。
02:26
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:27
Because in town --
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由於在城裡--
02:29
this is the bustling squatter city
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這是位於基貝拉的一個熱鬧的貧民區大城
02:31
of Kibera, near Nairobi --
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靠近肯亞的首都奈洛比--
02:35
they see action. They see opportunity.
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他們看到許許多多的機會
02:37
They see a cash economy that they were not able to participate in
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他們看到在過去的農場生活中
02:40
back in the subsistence farm.
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無法參與的金錢活動。
02:43
As you go around these places there's plenty of aesthetics.
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當你走過這些地方時,你會發現許多美麗的事
02:45
There is plenty going on.
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一堆事情正在發生
02:47
They are poor, but they are intensely urban. And they are intensely creative.
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他們貧窮,但他們高度地城市化。他們有豐富的創造性。
02:51
The aggregate numbers now
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現在的總人數
02:53
are that basically squatters,
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基本上都住在棚戶區,
02:56
all one billion of them, are building the urban world,
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這些所有十億人,正在建立一個都市化的世界
02:59
which means they're building the world --
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這意謂著他們正在建造這個世界。
03:02
personally, one by one, family by family,
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一人接一人,一家接一家
03:04
clan by clan, neighborhood by neighborhood.
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一族接一族,鄰里接社區
03:07
They start flimsy and they get substantial as time goes by.
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一開始,他們的生活不穩妥,但隨著時間的推移,他們愈來愈堅實
03:11
They even build their own infrastructure.
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他們甚至建立屬於自己的基礎設施
03:13
Well, steal their own infrastructure, at first.
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嗯,或者說,先偷來自己的基礎設施
03:16
Cable TV, water, the whole gamut, all gets stolen.
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有線電視、水,全偷走
03:19
And then gradually gentrifies.
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然後他們逐漸改善
03:23
It is not the case that slums undermine prosperity,
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有人說貧民窟破壞發展,但情況並非如此
03:26
not the working slums; they help create prosperity.
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事實上,貧民窟幫助創造繁榮
03:30
So in a town like Mumbai, which is half slums,
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所以像孟買這樣一個城市,幾乎一半都是貧民窟,
03:33
it's 1/6th of the GDP of India.
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它卻佔印度 1/6 的國內生產總值
03:36
Social capital in the slums is at its most urban and dense.
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貧民窟裡的社會資本,以其最高度都市化與密集的方式發展
03:41
These people are valuable as a group.
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他們是寶貴的一群人
03:44
And that's how they work.
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而這是他們工作的方式
03:46
There is a lot of people who think about all these poor people,
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許多人想到這些窮人,第一個念頭就是
03:49
"Oh there's terrible things. We've got to fix their housing."
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「噢這真是可怕的事,我們必須解決他們的住房問題」
03:51
It used to be, "Oh we've got to get them phone service."
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還有:「噢,我們得趕緊讓他們取得電話服務」
03:53
Now they're showing us how they do their phone service.
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現在,他們向我們表明了如何取得自己的電話服務了
03:56
Famine mostly is a rural event now.
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今天飢荒多半僅發生在農村
03:58
There are things they care about.
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事實上,他們憂慮一些事物
04:00
And this is where we can help.
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而這些事是我們可以幫助的地方
04:03
And the nations they're in can help.
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國家可以對他們提供幫助
04:05
And they are helping each other solve these issues.
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他們也互相幫助,解決這些問題
04:08
And you go to a nice dense place like this slum in Mumbai.
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如果你到一個稍微密集的地方,像這個在孟買的貧民窟
04:12
You look at that lane on the right.
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你看圖中右側的這條道路
04:14
And you can ask, "Okay what's going on there?"
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你會想問:「這到底是怎麼一回事?」
04:16
The answer is, "Everything."
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答案是:「所有一切」
04:19
This is better than a mall. It's much denser.
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這比商場還棒。它的密度大多了
04:22
It's much more interactive.
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人與人更為互動
04:24
And the scale is terrific.
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而且規模驚人
04:26
The main event is, these are not people crushed by poverty.
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主要活動是,這些都不是被貧困壓垮的人
04:30
These are people busy getting out of poverty
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而是一群忙著擺脫貧困的人
04:32
just as fast as they can.
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他們盡其所能地迅速
04:34
They're helping each other do it.
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他們互相幫助
04:36
They're doing it through an outlaw thing,
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他們透過違法的方式完成
04:38
the informal economy.
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非正規經濟
04:40
The informal economy, it's sort of like dark energy in astrophysics:
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這非正式的經濟就像天體物理學中的暗能量
04:44
it's not supposed to be there, but it's huge.
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不應該在那,但它是巨大的
04:46
We don't understand how it works yet, but we have to.
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我們不明白它是如何運作的,但我們必須明白
04:49
Furthermore, people in the informal economy,
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此外,在非正規經濟中
04:51
the gray economy --
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灰色經濟
04:53
as time goes by,
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隨著時間的推移
04:55
crime is happening around them. And they can join the criminal world,
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犯罪愈來愈頻仍,他們也可以加入犯罪的世界
04:59
or they can join the legitimate world.
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或者他們可以參與合法的世界
05:03
We should be able to make that choice
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我們應該能夠作出這樣的選擇
05:05
easier for them to get toward the legitimate world,
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使他們較容易走向合法的世界
05:07
because if we don't, they will go toward the criminal world.
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因為如果我們不這樣做,他們會走向犯罪的世界
05:11
There's all kinds of activity.
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那裡有各樣的活動
05:14
In Dharavi the slum performs not only
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在Dharavi 貧民窟不僅
05:16
a lot of services for itself,
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提供許多服務
05:18
but it performs services for the city at large.
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它也為城市提供一般服務
05:21
And one of the main events are these ad-hoc schools.
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而其中一個主要事件是這些特殊學校
05:24
Parents pool their money to hire some local teachers
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家長花錢聘請一些地方教師
05:28
to a private, tiny, unofficial school.
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給一個私人,小的,非官方的學校
05:30
Education is more possible in the cities, and that changes the world.
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在城市中教育是更有機會。並且改變了世界
05:35
So you see some interesting, typical, urban things.
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所以你看到一些有趣的,典型的,城市的東西
05:38
So one thing slammed up against another,
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因此,有一些事衝撞了另一件事
05:40
such as in Sao Paulo here.
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就像在聖保羅這裡
05:42
That's what cities do. That's how they create value,
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這就是城市所做的事。這就是他們把所有事物擠壓在一起
05:44
is by slamming things together.
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創造的價值的方式
05:46
In this case, supply right next to demand.
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在這的例子中,供給接續著需求
05:48
So the maids and the gardeners and the guards
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因此女傭、園丁和警衛
05:50
that live in this lively part of town on the left
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生活在這熱鬧城市的左邊部分
05:53
walk to work, in the boring, rich neighborhood.
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走路去富裕卻沉悶的鄰近社區上班
05:58
Proximity is amazing.
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它們距離這麼接近是很驚人的
06:01
We are learning about how dense proximity can be.
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我們正在學習如此緊密相鄰是如何可能的
06:16
Connectivity between the city and the country
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連接城市和國家
06:19
is what's going to keep the country good,
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使國家保持良好
06:22
because the city has interesting ways of doing things.
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由於城市以有趣的方式做事情
06:34
This is what makes cities --
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這是構成城市的要素--
06:36
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
06:40
this is what makes cities so green in the developing world.
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這是使發展中國家的城市變得如此绿化的因素
06:43
Because people leave the poverty trap, an ecological disaster
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由於人們脫離貧窮陷阱, 生態的變化
06:46
of subsistence farms, and head to town.
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衝擊自耕農 轉進城市發展
06:49
And when they're gone the natural environment
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當農耕離開 自然環境
06:51
starts to come back very rapidly.
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會開始很快的恢復
06:53
And those who remain in the village can shift over to cash crops
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而留在村莊的就可選種較有經濟價值的作物
06:56
to send food to the new growing markets in town.
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賣食物到新城市內的壯大市場
07:00
So if you want to save a village, you do it with a good road,
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要救一個村莊 就是建條好的聯絡道路
07:03
or with a good cell phone connection, and ideally some grid electrical power.
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或是好的無線電話網路 更好的是一些電力供應網路
07:07
So the event is: we're a city planet. That just happened.
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看到的是 我們就是城市的行星
07:10
More than half.
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超過一半
07:12
The numbers are considerable. A billion live in the squatter cities now.
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這數字是可觀的 10億人正生活在擁擠的城市
07:15
Another billion is expected.
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另外 10 億人也預計會
07:18
That's more than a sixth of humanity living a certain way.
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那是超過1/6的人類 生活著同一種方式
07:21
And that will determine a lot of how we function.
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那就會決定我們如何運作
07:25
Now, for us environmentalists,
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對我們這些環境保護工作者
07:27
maybe the greenest thing about the cities is they diffuse the population bomb.
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或許城市最綠色的發展 是能緩和人口之增加
07:30
People get into town.
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人們來到城裡
07:33
The immediately have fewer children.
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立即會減少生育
07:35
They don't even have to get rich yet. Just the opportunity of
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他們不需要先變得富有 機會自然發生
07:38
coming up in the world means they will have fewer, higher-quality kids,
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他們可以有較少又較佳的孩子
07:42
and the birthrate goes down radically.
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生育率迅速下降
07:44
Very interesting side effect here,
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非常有趣的副作用發生
07:46
here's a slide from Phillip Longman.
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這張照片是來自 Phillip Longman
07:48
Shows what is happening.
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顯示發生什麼事
07:50
As we have more and more old people, like me,
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我們有愈來愈多的老人佔比
07:52
and fewer and fewer babies.
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與愈來愈少的嬰兒
07:54
And they are regionally separated.
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他們還是有區域性的分割
07:57
What you're getting is a world which is
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得到的是
07:59
old folks, and old cities, going around doing things the old way,
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老人 老城市 從事著舊有活動
08:04
in the north.
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近北邊
08:06
And young people in brand new cities they're inventing,
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年輕的 都擠進他們創造的年輕城市
08:09
doing new things, in the south.
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在南邊 從事新活動
08:11
Where do you think the action is going to be?
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你們知道是哪些新活動呢?
08:14
Shift of subject. Quickly drop by climate.
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暫偏主題 看一下氣候問題
08:17
The climate news, I'm sorry to say, is going to keep getting worse
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關於氣候 我很抱歉的說 只會比我們以為的
08:19
than we think, faster than we think.
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更加惡化的 更加劇烈急速
08:22
Climate is a profoundly complex, nonlinear system,
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氣候是非常複雜的 非線性變化的
08:24
full of runaway positive feedbacks,
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到處都是亂竄的正向反饋
08:27
hidden thresholds and irrevocable tipping points.
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隱藏的門檻 與 不可逆的反轉點
08:29
Here's just a few samples.
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這裡就只是幾個例子
08:32
We're going to keep being surprised. And almost all
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我們會持續感到意外的
08:34
the surprises are going to be bad ones.
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最出乎意料的都是些壞事
08:36
From your standpoint this means
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從你的觀點
08:39
a great increase in climate refugees
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會有更多的氣候變遷難民
08:41
over the coming decades,
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就在未來的數十年
08:43
and what goes along with that, which is resource wars
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伴隨著 就是搶資源的戰爭
08:46
and chaos wars,
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與 混沌不明的戰爭
08:48
as we're seeing in Darfur.
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就像發生在 Darfur
08:55
That's what drought does.
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只因為乾旱造成
08:57
It brings carrying capacity down,
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拖垮公權力
08:59
and there's not enough carrying capacity
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沒有足夠的公權力
09:01
to support the people. And then you're in trouble.
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來幫助人民 只有混亂了
09:04
Shift to the power situation.
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來說說電力的問題
09:07
Baseload electricity is what it takes to run a city,
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基載電力就是用來讓城市運作的
09:10
or a city planet.
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或說我們整個星球
09:12
So far there is only three sources of baseload electricity:
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目前僅有三種來源是基載電力
09:16
coal, some gas,
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煤 與一些天然氣 構成的 火力發電
09:19
nuclear and hydro.
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核能發電 水力發電
09:21
Of those, only nuclear and hydro are green.
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之中 僅有核能與水力是綠色的
09:25
Coal is what is causing the climate problems.
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燃煤就是造成氣候的問題
09:27
And everyone will keep burning it
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每個人將還是繼續燒煤
09:29
because it's so cheap, until governments make it expensive.
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因為它是如此便宜 直到政府能讓它變貴
09:32
Wind and solar can't help, because so far we don't have a way to store that energy.
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風力與太陽能難有助益 因我們還沒有個好方式儲存能量
09:37
So with hydro maxed out,
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由於水力已到開發上限
09:40
coal and lose the climate,
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燃煤會惡化氣候
09:43
or nuclear, which is the current operating low-carbon source,
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核能產出極低的碳排放
09:46
and maybe save the climate.
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就或許能挽救氣候異常
09:48
And if we can eventually get good solar in space,
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若我們真的能有太空中的太陽光電發電
09:51
that also could help.
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那就真是大幫手了
09:53
Because remember, this is what drives the prosperity in the developing world
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因為 這些才是能為開發中國家創造繁榮的
09:58
in the villages and in the cities.
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不管是鄉村或城市
10:01
So, between coal and nuclear,
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所以比較燃煤與核能
10:03
compare their waste products.
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看他們的廢棄產生
10:05
If all of the electricity you used in your lifetime was nuclear,
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這輩子一個人能用掉的電力 若是來自核能
10:09
the amount of waste that would be added up
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那核能廢棄物加總起來
10:11
would fit in a Coke can.
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只有可樂罐子的大小
10:14
Whereas a coal-burning plant,
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若是來自燃煤
10:16
a normal one gigawatt coal plant, burns 80 rail cars of coal a day,
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一個10億瓦等級的電廠 是要每天燒去80節火車廂的煤
10:20
each car having 100 tons.
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每節車有100公噸的煤
10:23
And it puts 18 thousand tons
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這個廠每天排放1萬8千噸的
10:25
of carbon dioxide in the air.
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二氧化碳到大氣層
10:29
So and then when you compare the lifetime emissions
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所以比較這一輩子用電
10:31
of these various energy forms,
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各種形式的排放量
10:33
nuclear is about even with solar and wind,
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核能約與太陽光電與風力相當
10:35
and ahead of solar --
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勝過太陽光電
10:37
oh, I'm sorry -- with hydro and wind, and ahead of solar.
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喔! 抱歉是約與水力與風力相當 勝過太陽光電
10:40
And does nuclear really compete with coal?
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是不是核能真的能贏過燃煤
10:42
Just ask the coal miners in Australia.
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問問那些澳大利亞的煤礦曠工
10:44
That's where you see some of the source,
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會得到些消息來源
10:46
not from my fellow environmentalists,
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不是從我的環保團體
10:48
but from people who feel threatened by nuclear power.
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而是來自因核能而備受威脅的人
10:51
Well the good news is that
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好消息是這個
10:53
the developing world, but frankly, the whole world,
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開發中國家 坦白說是 所有國家
10:55
is busy building, and starting to build, nuclear reactors.
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都急忙於建構核能發電廠
10:59
This is good for the atmosphere.
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對大氣層是好的
11:01
It's good for their prosperity.
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對他們的繁榮是好的
11:03
I want to point out one interesting thing,
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我需要指出一件有趣的事
11:05
which is that environmentalists like the thing we call micropower.
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環保團體喜歡所謂的 微電力系統
11:08
It's supposed to be, I don't know, local solar and wind and cogeneration,
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就是 座落於當地的 太陽 風力 或 汽電共生
11:11
and good things like that.
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等等的 發電系統
11:13
But frankly micro-reactors which are just now coming on,
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實際上 微型反應爐 就快問世
11:15
might serve even better.
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能提供更佳的方案
11:17
The Russians, who started this, are building floating reactors,
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俄國人士最早發展這個的 正再建造一漂移的反應爐
11:19
for their new passage, where the ice is melting, north of Russia.
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在俄國北邊的水路通道 持續耗電溶解冰
11:23
And they're selling these floating reactors,
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他們也出售 這種浮動反應爐
11:26
only 35 megawatts, to developing countries.
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約3千5百萬瓦 給開發中國家
11:30
Here's the design of an early one from Toshiba.
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這是Toshiba早期的設計
11:32
It's interesting, say, to take a 25-megawatt,
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這是非常有意思的 用
11:35
25 million watts,
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2千5 百萬瓦發電量
11:37
and you compare it to the standard big iron
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與標準的Westinghouse 或是 Ariva的
11:39
of an ordinary Westinghouse or Ariva,
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大反應爐相比
11:43
which is 1.2, 1.6 billion watts.
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動輒12 或 16億瓦
11:46
These things are way smaller. They're much more adaptable.
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這些是更小的設計 更能應付各式情況
11:50
Here's an American design from Lawrence Livermore Lab.
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這是一個美國設計給Lawrence實驗室
11:53
Here's another American design that came out
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這裡是另一從Los Alamos設計
11:55
of Los Alamos, and is now commercial.
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也已商轉的例子
11:58
Almost all of these are not only small, they are proliferation-proof.
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幾乎這些設計不只是小 它們也確保不致於變成核武擴散
12:00
They're typically buried in the ground.
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它們通常是埋在地下
12:03
And the innovation is moving very rapidly.
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創新的速度是加速進行
12:05
So I think microreactors is going to be important for the future.
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我相信微型反應爐將是未來重要的發展
12:08
In terms of proliferation,
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至於核武威脅的議題
12:10
nuclear energy has done more
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核能實際已經是
12:12
to dismantle nuclear weapons than any other activity.
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拆解核子武器後的再利用
12:15
And that's why 10 percent of the electricity in this room,
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所以 大約10%~20%
12:19
20 percent of electricity
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這間室內使用的電力
12:21
in this room is probably nuclear.
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是來自核能
12:23
Half of that is coming from dismantled warheads from Russia,
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其中一半是來自於蘇聯核彈頭的拆解
12:27
soon to be joined by our dismantled warheads.
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也將在加入我們自己的核彈頭
12:30
And so I would like to see the GNEP program,
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所以 我希望在以前布希政府下
12:33
that was developed in the Bush administration, go forward aggressively.
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的GNEP計畫 能更積極向前
12:36
And I was glad to see that president Obama
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我也高興見到 Obama 總統
12:38
supported the nuclear fuel bank strategy
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在幾週前布拉格的演講
12:41
when he spoke in Prague the other week.
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能支持核能燃料庫的策略
12:43
One more subject. Genetically engineered food crops,
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再一個主題: 基因工程改造的糧食作物
12:46
in my view, as a biologist,
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以我一個生物學家的觀點
12:48
have no reason to be controversial.
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這是沒什麼好爭辯的
12:50
My fellow environmentalists, on this subject,
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但有些環保同僚 卻對此
12:52
have been irrational, anti-scientific, and very harmful.
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有些非理性 反科學 或是 傷害的角度看待
12:56
Despite their best efforts,
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先不管科學家的努力
12:58
genetically engineered crops are the most
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農作物基因工程可是
13:00
rapidly successful agricultural innovation in history.
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農業歷史上最具成功代表性
13:04
They're good for the environment because they enable no-till farming,
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對環境也是有益的 因為 它們促成了免耕農業
13:07
which leaves the soil in place,
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讓土壤留在原地
13:09
getting healthier from year to year --
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每年也是更加的健康
13:11
slso keeps less carbon dioxide going from the soil
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也同時減少了土壤的CO2
13:13
into the atmosphere.
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排放到大氣中
13:15
They reduce pesticide use.
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也能減少殺蟲劑的使用
13:17
And they increase yield, which allows you to have your
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也增加作物產量 也就能讓我們的
13:19
agricultural area be smaller,
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耕作面積減少
13:22
and therefore more wild area is freed up.
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也就多出了野生地區
13:25
By the way, this map from 2006
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這張2006年的地圖
13:27
is out of date because it shows Africa
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是過時的 因為它顯示非洲
13:29
still under the thumb of Greenpeace,
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還是需要綠和平 與歐洲地球之友的
13:31
and Friends of the Earth from Europe,
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廣泛協助
13:34
and they're finally getting out from under that.
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其實他們多已撤出
13:36
And biotech is moving rapidly in Africa, at last.
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生物科技在非洲終於快速展開
13:39
This is a moral issue.
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這實際是個道德問題
13:41
The Nuffield Council on Bioethics
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Nuffield 生物倫理理事會
13:43
met on this issue twice in great detail
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就已為此議題做過兩次深入討論
13:45
and said it is a moral imperative
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並決議 這是個道德必行的事
13:47
to make genetically engineered crops readily available.
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應盡速研發出基因工程作物
13:50
Speaking of imperatives, geoengineering is taboo now,
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說到勢在必行 地球工程目前卻是個禁忌話題
13:53
especially in government circles,
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尤其是在政治圈內
13:55
though I think there was a DARPA meeting on it a couple of weeks ago,
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即使幾週前 曾有個 DARPA 會議討論這個主題
13:57
but it will be on your plate --
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遲早會到大家眼前
13:59
not this year but pretty soon,
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不是今年 但也會是相當快的
14:02
because some harsh realizations are coming along.
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因為一些嚴苛情況 很快就會來臨
14:05
This is a list of them.
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這是張清單
14:07
Basically the news is going to keep getting more scary.
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基本上 消息會更嚇人的
14:10
There will be events,
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會是一些事件
14:12
like 35,000 people dying of a heat wave,
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像是 35,000人 因熱浪來襲而死
14:15
which happened a while back.
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在之前不久發生過
14:17
Like cyclones coming up toward Bangladesh.
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像是 龍捲風襲擊 孟加拉
14:20
Like wars over water,
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像是 水資源的戰爭
14:22
such as in the Indus.
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發生在印度河
14:24
And as those events keep happening
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當這些事件持續發生
14:26
we're going to say, "Okay, what can we do about that really?"
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我們會說: "好吧! 我們真的能做些什麼呢?"
14:28
But there's this little problem with geoengineering:
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但是 地球工程上還有個問題
14:33
what body is going to decide
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哪個組織來決定?
14:37
who gets to engineer? How much they do? Where they do it?
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地球需要什麼工程? 做多少? 在哪裡做?
14:39
Because everybody is downstream,
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因為每個人都會是被影響者
14:41
downwind of whatever is done.
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因為每個人都會是被影響與波及
14:44
And if we just taboo it completely
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若是我們完全不談它
14:46
we could lose civilization.
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我們或許會失去文明
14:48
But if we just say "OK,
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或若只是一味贊同
14:51
China, you're worried, you go ahead.
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中國要做 好去做
14:53
You geoengineer your way. We'll geoengineer our way."
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你做你的方式 我做我的
14:57
That would be considered an act of war by both nations.
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那將會是 近似兩國宣戰
15:00
So this is very interesting diplomacy coming along.
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所以也會見到新的外交談判
15:04
I should say, it is more practical than people think.
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我想說的是 這些比一般人以為的還要可實現
15:07
Here is an example that climatologists like a lot,
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這就是個氣候學家喜歡的
15:10
one of the dozens of geoengineering ideas.
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十幾個例子其中之一
15:12
This one came from the sulfur dioxide
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這個例子 是SO2
15:14
from Mount Pinatubo in 1991 --
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1991年 Pinatubo 火山
15:17
cooled the earth by half a degree.
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降低了地球半度
15:21
There was so much ice in 1992, the following year,
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造成接著的1992年大積雪
15:23
that there was a bumper crop of polar bear cubs
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也孕育出了大量的北極熊寶寶
15:26
who were known as the Pinatubo cubs.
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也就被稱為 Pinatubo寶寶
15:28
To put sulfur dioxide in the stratosphere
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要將 SO2 放在平流層
15:30
would cost on the order of a billion dollars a year.
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約需要每年10億美元經費
15:33
That's nothing, compared to all of the other
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這筆錢是小的 相較其他
15:36
things we may be trying to do about energy.
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規劃中的能源類相關計畫
15:38
Just to run by another one:
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再舉個例子
15:41
this is a plan to brighten the reflectance of ocean clouds,
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這是個將海洋上的雲增加反射陽光
15:44
by atomizing seawater;
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利用的是將海水分子化
15:46
that would brighten the albedo of the whole planet.
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那會增加全球的陽光遮蔽效果
15:48
A nice one, because it can happen
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另一個相當好的例子 因為這是可行的
15:50
lots of little ways in lots of little places,
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且可以多地點與多方式進行
15:52
is by copying the ancient Amazon Indians
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是向古代亞馬遜的原住民學習
15:54
who made good agricultural soil
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製造出很好的農作土壤
15:56
by pyrolizing, smoldering, plant waste,
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是利用肥料 植物廢料
16:00
and biochar fixes large quantities of carbon
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可以固化大量的碳元素
16:03
while it's improving the soil.
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也可以做土壤改質
16:05
So here is where we are.
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這就是我們所處的狀況
16:08
Nobel Prize-winning climatologist Paul Crutzen
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諾貝爾得主 氣候學家 Paul Crutzen
16:11
calls our geological era the Anthropocene,
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稱人類所在的世紀
16:14
the human-dominated era. We are stuck
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是由人類所主宰 但我們卻也背負了
16:17
with its obligations.
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義務
16:20
In the Whole Earth Catalog, my first words were,
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在之前 Whole Earth Catalog (全球型錄) 我的前幾句是
16:22
"We are as Gods, and might as well get good at it."
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"我們喜歡扮神, 那不妨學會作好"
16:24
The first words of Whole Earth Discipline
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Wole Earth Discipline (全球紀律) 的前幾句是
16:27
are, "We are as Gods, and have to get good at it."
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"我們若是神 那就得做好祂"
16:31
Thank you.
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謝謝
16:33
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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