Bill Gross: Great ideas for finding new energy

翻译人员: Meihua Jin 校对人员: Tony Yet

Right when I was 15 was when I first got interested in solar energy.

我从15岁开始对太阳能产生兴趣

我家那时候搬离Fort Lee， 从New Jersey 到 California，

My family had moved from Fort Lee, New Jersey to California,

from the snow to lots of heat, and gas lines.

生活环境也从寒冷变为酷热， 到处可见燃气管道。

There was gas rationing in 1973.

1973年燃气紧缺，实行配额供给。

The energy crisis was in full bore.

能源危机令人厌烦。

I started reading "Popular Science" magazine,

我开始阅读大众科学杂志，

and I got really excited about the potential of solar energy

了解到太阳能能解决能源危机，

to try and solve that crisis.

这让我十分的幸奋。

I had just taken trigonometry in high school,

我在高中学习了三角学

I learned about the parabola

了解了抛物线的知识

and how it could concentrate rays of light to a single focus.

知道抛物线可以将光线聚集到一点，

这又使我兴奋不已。

That got me very excited.

And I really felt that there would be potential

我明确地感觉到， 有很大的可能性

to build some kind of thing that could concentrate light.

去做出一种东西， 一种能够将光线汇聚集中起来设备。

接下来， 我建了个公司，名叫太阳能设备。

So, I started this company called Solar Devices.

在公司里， 我制作抛物线型的太阳能收集器，

And this was a company where I built parabolas,

I took metal shop,

我走进进五金行

and I remember walking into metal shop building parabolas and Stirling engines.

清楚记得我走进五金行， 制作太阳能收集器和斯特灵机

用车床做斯特灵机

And I was building a Stirling engine over on the lathe,

所有的街头小子过来围观

and all the motorcycle guys said, "You're building a bong, aren't you?"

说， 你在做抽大麻的，是不？

我回答说，“不， 是斯特灵机，斯特灵机。“

And I said, "No, it's a Stirling engine." But they didn't believe me.

可是他们不信我说的。

I sold the plans for this engine

我卖了斯特灵机和太阳能收集器的设计图纸

and for this dish in the back of "Popular Science" magazine,

在流行科学杂志的后面，售价4美元

for four dollars each.

这个收入足够支付我在加州理工的第一年的学费

And I earned enough money to pay for my first year of Caltech.

能够进入加州理工使我激动不已

It was a really big excitement for me to get into Caltech.

加州理工的第一年， 我仍继续着我的买卖。

And at my first year at Caltech, I continued the business.

但是接下来的第二年， 校方开始实行分数制。

But then, in the second year of Caltech, they started grading.

第一学年，成绩只有过于挂， 但是第二年开始对成绩评分了。

The whole first year was pass/fail, but the second year was graded.

这使我不能继续我的生意了，

I wasn't able to keep up with the business,

这一终止，就是25年的跨度。

and I ended up with a 25-year detour.

我那时的理想是在一个可实行的价格上转换太阳能，

My dream had been to convert solar energy at a very practical cost,

但是却面临了这个巨大的改道。

but then I had this big detour.

First, the coursework at Caltech.

首先， 在加州的课业。

Then, when I graduated from Caltech, the IBM PC came out,

然后，当我毕业时，IBM个人电脑出现出现了

and I got addicted to the IBM PC in 1981.

于是在1981年我开始对个人电脑着迷了。

And then in 1983, Lotus 1-2-3 came out,

接下来的1983， Lotus1-2-3出现，

and I was completely blown away by Lotus 1-2-3.

我又彻底的转向Lotus1-2-3.

开始为1-2-3写插件， 做起了1-2-3的生意，

I began operating my business with 1-2-3, began writing add-ins for 1-2-3,

为1-2-3写了自然语言的界面

wrote a natural language interface to 1-2-3.

I started an educational software company after I joined Lotus,

当我加入Lotus之后，还创办了一家教育软件公司

接着着手于建立创思实验室，

and then I started Idealab so I could have a roof

创思实验室提供了一个平台， 可以让我连续的设立多个公司

under which I could build multiple companies in succession.

然后，很久很久以后--2000， 及时最近， California 面临了新的能源危机

Much later -- in 2000, very recently -- the new California energy crisis --

早就预见的能源危机，到来了

what was purported to be a big energy crisis -- was coming.

我一直尝试寻找是否存在一些方法

And I was trying to figure out

if we could build something that would capitalize on that

令我们可以建立某种可以投资的

可以使人们重新回到能源议题的东西，

and get people backup energy, in case the crisis really came.

以备能源危机确实来到

And I started looking at how we could build battery backup systems

我开始朝如何做备用电池的方向寻找方法

这种备用电池应该能保证5小时，10小时，甚至是一整天，

that could give people five hours, 10 hours, maybe even a full day,

或是三天的供电。

or three days' worth of backup power.

很高兴今天早些时候，

I'm glad you heard earlier today, batteries are unbelievably --

你们已经了解到电池是很不靠谱的能源， --与燃料相比电池的能量密度实在太小。

lack density compared to fuel.

So much more energy can be stored with fuel than with batteries.

也就是说燃料中储存的能量远大于电池中储存的。

You'd have to fill your entire parking space of one garage space

需要一个车库的停车空闲

去满足仅仅4个小时的电池储备。

just to give yourself four hours of battery backup.

在研究了其它技术后，我认为

And I concluded, after researching every other technology

我们可以这样储存能量--

that we could deploy for storing energy --

飞轮， 与电池不同的飞轮--

flywheels, different formulations of batteries --

it just wasn't practical to store energy.

也许储存电力并非一个具操作性的方法

So what about making energy? Maybe we could make energy.

那么如何产生能量？

或许我们能够产生能量。

I tried to figure out -- maybe solar's become attractive.

我尝试想出办法--太阳能或许就是这个办法

It's been 25 years since I was doing this,

这距离我上次想使用太阳能已经25年了，

let me go back and look at what's been happening with solar cells.

让我回顾先太阳能芯片发生了怎样的变化。

价格已经由1瓦10美金降到1瓦4或5美金，

And the price had gone down from 10 dollars a watt

to about four or five dollars a watt, but it stabilized.

然后就不再下降了。

And it needed to get much lower to be cost-effective.

我们知道这个价格还是需要下降才能有足够的吸引力。

我学了关于太阳能芯片的所有新进展

I studied all the new things that had happened in solar cells,

尝试寻找革新的突破口

and was looking for ways we could make solar cells more inexpensively.

使太阳能芯片更加便宜。

A lot of new things are happening to do that,

过去几年的确发生了许多新发展，

but fundamentally, the process requires a tremendous amount of energy.

但是归根结底， 制造芯片的过程本身需要大量的能量。

Some people say it takes more energy to make a solar cell

有些人会说制造太阳能芯片的能量

than it will give out in its entire life.

比我们能在芯片寿命其间得到得能量要多。

If we reduce the amount of energy it takes to make the cells,

从乐观的角度来想， 如果我们能够降低生产过程所需能量，

that will become more practical.

那么太阳能利用将更加的可行。

But right now, you pretty much have to take silicon,

但是就如今而言， 大家还是要使用硅，

put it in an oven at 1600 F for 17 hours, to make the cells.

将硅至于华氏1600度环境中长达17小时， 才能制作此芯片。

A lot of people are working to try and reduce that,

大量的人从事这项研究以期降低能耗，

but I didn't have anything to contribute.

但是就我而言， 在这个研究方向没什么可以开展的。

So I tried to figure out what other way could we try

所以我就想从别的什么方向着手， 以期使太阳能更加经济地产生电力

to make cost-effective solar electricity.

所以我想到了用反射器来收集太阳能

What if we collect the sun with a large reflector --

就像我曾经在高中时想的一样--

like I had been thinking about in high school,

不同的是， 借助现代科技，我们或许可以做更便宜，更大的收集器

but maybe with modern technology we could make it cheaper --

聚集太阳能与一个小的电能转换器，

concentrate it to a small converter,

并且电能转换器不会那么的贵，

and then the conversion device wouldn't have to be as expensive,

这是因为它与太阳能芯片相比更小，

because it's much smaller, rather than solar cells,

太阳能芯片是要将覆盖其整个表面的阳光转换为电。

which have to cover the entire surface that you want to gather sun from.

如今看起来可行性大大提高了，

This seemed practical now,

过去25年产生的大量新科技促使了这点。

because a lot of new technologies had come in the 25 years

since I had last looked at it.

首先， 大量的新的制造技术，

There was a lot of new manufacturing techniques,

例如，小型电动机--

not to mention really cheap miniature motors --

无刷马达，伺服机，多级电机，

brushless motors, servomotors, stepper motors,

这些主要是应用于打印机，扫描仪或是其他类似的东西。

that are used in printers and scanners.

恩， 这些都是技术上的突破。

So, that's a breakthrough.

Of course, inexpensive microprocessors

当然还有较便宜的微处理器

and a very important breakthrough -- genetic algorithms.

和非常重要的突破性技术，那就是基因算法。

我接下来会简单地介绍基因算法。

I'll be very short on genetic algorithms.

基因算法是一种非常有效地利用自然选择原理来解决棘手问题的方法。

It's a powerful way of solving intractable problems using natural selection.

当你遇到不能用纯数学的方法来解决的问题，

You take a problem that you can't solve with a pure mathematical answer,

可以建立一个类似进化的系统， 通过猜测可能的解来进行求解的过程，

you build an evolutionary system to try multiple tries at guessing,

你设立繁殖过程--

you add sex --

where you take half of one solution and half of another

在这个过程中，用各自两个可能解的一半来繁殖产生新的可能解--

and then make new mutations --

然后用自然选择的原理来舍弃不好的肯能解。

and you use natural selection to kill off not-as-good solutions.

通常来说， 如今在3G的处理器计算机上

Usually, with a genetic algorithm on a computer today,

用基因算法

with a three gigahertz processor,

你可以解决很多常规无法解决的问题

you can solve many formerly intractable problems

这个求解过程仅仅需要几分钟的时间。

in just a matter of minutes.

So we tried to come up with a way to use genetic algorithms

我们已经用这个基因算法来进行

to create a new type of concentrator.

制造新型太阳能收集器的尝试。

And I'll show you what we came up with.

接下来我将展示我们的成果。

Traditionally, concentrators look like this.

常规来讲，太阳能收集器看起来是这个样子的。

Those shapes are parabolas.

抛物线形状。

They take all the parallel incoming rays and focus it to a single spot.

抛物线形状能够将照射在其表面的平行光汇聚到一点。

They have to track the sun,

为了一直实现这个， 抛物线体必须随着太阳而动。

because they have to point directly at the sun.

通常只能接受一度的偏差。

They usually have a one degree acceptance angle --

也就是说， 如果超过这一度的偏差，

once they're more than a degree off,

将不会有一丝光线能够聚集到焦点上。

none of the sunlight rays will hit the focus.

所以呢，我们有必要想出个方法，可以让太阳能收集器不必随着太阳而转动，

So we tried to come up with a non-tracking collector

却能接受更大的偏差，增强汇光能力，

that would gather much more than one degree of light, with no moving parts.

保持太阳能收集器不转。

所以我们尝试用基因算法解决这个，

So we created a genetic algorithm to try this out,

做了个多表面的反射器，

we made a model in Excel of a multisurface reflector,

令人惊讶的结果产生了，

and an amazing thing evolved, literally,

经过一兆次的循环， 即一兆次的尝试，

from trying a billion cycles, a billion different attempts,

通过一个适应性函数用以决定我们能收集多少光能，

with a fitness function that defined how can you collect the most light,

from the most angles, over a day, from the sun.

从太阳而来的，一整天的，不同的角度的光线。

这就是那个模型。

And this is the shape that evolved.

It's this non-tracking collector with these six tuba-like horns,

不需跟着太阳跑的，具有6个类似角状物的太阳能收集器，

每个角以以下方式收集太阳能--

and each of them collect light in the following way --

如果光线角度正好，

if the sunlight strikes right here,

it might bounce right to the center, the hot spot, directly,

光线将直接反射到焦点，

但是如果光线偏离轴线，从侧边而来，

but if the sun is off axis and comes from the side,

那么光线将照射角状物两次，即反射两次。

it might hit two places and take two bounces.

So for direct light, it takes only one bounce,

总结下，如果光线角度正好，只反射一次，

如果光线偏离轴线，那么将要反射两次，

for off-axis light it might take two,

and for extreme off-axis, it might take three.

对极度偏离轴线的光线，将需要3次反射。

Your efficiency goes down with more bounces,

效率随反射次数的增加而减少，

because you lose about 10 percent with each bounce,

每次反射将损失10%的能量。

好处是，光线角度的接受范围扩大了正负25度。

but this allowed us to collect light from a plus or minus 25-degree angle.

所以呢， 一天中有一个半小时的时间，我们完全可以用固定不动的太阳能收集器来接受太阳能。

So, about two and a half hours of the day

we could collect with a stationary component.

Solar cells collect light for four and a half hours though.

然而太阳能光电池一天可以收集四个半小时的光能。

On an average adjusted day, a solar cell --

平均来讲--

because the sun's moving across the sky,

由于太阳的天空轨迹，

the solar cell is going down with a sine wave function of performance

太阳能光电池的性能是个正弦曲线函数

随角度而改变。

at the off-axis angles.

It collects about four and a half average hours of sunlight a day.

平均一天四个半小时的收集能力，

没有移动部件是个非常优秀的性能--

So even this, although it was great with no moving parts --

我们虽然能达到较高的温度，但是持续的时间不够长。

we could achieve high temperatures -- wasn't enough.

需要击败太阳能光电池的这一优点，

We needed to beat solar cells.

恩， 我们现在看看另外一个想法。

So we took a look at another idea.

We looked at a way to break up a parabola into individual petals that would track.

于是我们尝试将一个抛物线整体分解成多个独立的瓣

于是有了这个12瓣体，

So what you see here is 12 separate petals

每个瓣由独立的微处理器控制，

that each could be controlled with individual microprocessors

现在微处理器1美元就可以买到

that would only cost a dollar.

You can buy a two-megahertz microprocessor for a dollar now.

一个两兆的，1美元

And you can buy stepper motors that pretty much never wear out

还可以买到几乎不会磨损的步进电机

because they have no brushes,

步进电机由于没有刷，所以不太会有报废的可能。

for a dollar.

So we can control all 12 of these petals for under 50 dollars

50美金就可以控制这12个瓣体

and what this would allow us to do is not have to move the focus any more,

于是呢，我们就不用再移动焦点了，

but only move the petals.

只需改变瓣体的位置。

The whole system would have a much lower profile,

整个系统变得不那么引人注意，

but also we could gather sunlight for six and a half to seven hours a day.

但是我们却能利用它在一天里收集6个半小时，甚至是7个小时。

我们目前解决了汇聚光线的问题，

Now that we have concentrated sunlight,

那么如何进一步使这些光能转换成电能？

what are we going to put at the center to convert sunlight to electricity?

我们尝试过检视历史上的不同引擎

So we tried to look at all the different heat engines

that have been used in history to convert sunlight or heat to electricity,

实现光能向电能的转换，即热能想电能的转换。

And one of the great ones of all time,

一直以来最优秀的其中一个，

James Watt's steam engine of 1788 was a major breakthrough.

Jame Watt 的1788年蒸汽机是其中主要的突破。

实际上， James Watt 并没有发明蒸汽机， 他只是改进蒸汽机。

James Watt didn't actually invent the steam engine, he just refined it.

但是，他的改进是非比寻常的。

But his refinements were incredible.

增加了活塞的直线运动，

He added new linear motion guides to the pistons,

增加了冷凝器用以冷凝缸体外的蒸汽，

he added a condenser to cool the steam outside the cylinder,

他制作了双动引擎，从而可以产生两倍的功。

he made the engine double-acting, so it had double the power.

这些主要的技术突破。

Those were major breakthroughs. All of the improvements he made --

我是说， 所有这些他引进的改良--

and it's justifiable that our measure of energy, the watt,

另能量以他的名字为单位。

today is named after him.

So we looked at this engine, and this had some potential.

所以我们将目光投向蒸汽机，基于其可能性。

蒸汽机是危险地，

Steam engines are dangerous,

and they had tremendous impact on the world --

众所周知，蒸汽机对世界产生了巨大影响--

industrial revolution and ships and locomotives.

工业革命，船只，汽车。

通常来说，大体积没有问题，

But they're usually good to be large,

so they're not good for distributed power generation.

有利于分布产生的能量。

由于高压，蒸汽机具有危险性。

They're also very high-pressure, so they're dangerous.

Another type of engine is the hot air engine.

另一种是热空气引擎。

And the hot air engine also was not invented by Robert Stirling,

同样地，热空气引擎也不是Rober Stirling 发明的，

but Robert Stirling came along in 1816 and radically improved it.

但是他在1816年全面改进了这种引擎。

This engine, because it was so interesting --

这种引擎只能用空气驱动，而不是用蒸汽，

it only worked on air, no steam --

has led to hundreds of creative designs over the years

由于这一有趣的特性，多年来衍生了很多创造性的设计

that use the Stirling engine principle.

基于斯特灵机原理。

But after the Stirling engine, Otto came along,

斯特灵机之后，Otto 产生了，

and also, he didn't invent the internal combustion engine,

同样地，并不是Otto发明了内燃机， 他改进了内燃机。

he just refined it.

1867年巴黎，Otto 展示了内燃机，

He showed it in Paris in 1867, and it was a major achievement

这是重大的成就

because it brought the power density of the engine way up.

因为内燃机是引擎的能量密度提高了。

现在可以在相对小的空间里获得更多的能量

You could now get a lot more power in a lot smaller space,

这个技术使引擎能够移动。

and that allowed the engine to be used for mobile applications.

所以，你可以自由组合，

So, once you have mobility,

you're making a lot of engines because you've got lots of units,

现在能够用大量的引擎组合单元，

as opposed to steam ships or big factories,

蒸汽船或是大的工厂里却不能够使用如此多的单元，

so this was the engine that ended up benefiting from mass production

内燃机利于量产化

where all the other engines didn't.

而其他各类引擎都不具备此能力。

So, because it went into mass production,

所以，因为大量的内燃机生产出来，

costs were reduced, 100 years of refinement,

成本降下来，在100年间的改进中，

emissions were reduced, tremendous production value.

排放降低，这些都意义非凡。

There have been hundreds of millions of internal combustion engines built,

数亿的内燃机呗生产出来，

而斯特灵机却只能以千记。

compared to thousands of Stirling engines built.

蒸汽机更是少之又少，

And not nearly as many small steam engines being built anymore,

除了应用于大的场合的大型蒸汽机。

only large ones for big operations.

So after looking at these three, and 47 others,

当检视完这三种引擎， 还有47种其他的，

we concluded that the Stirling engine would be the best one to use.

我们得出结论，斯特灵机最适宜。

I want to give you a brief explanation of how we looked at it and how it works.

我将简要介绍它如何工作以及我们如何利用它。

So we tried to look at the Stirling engine in a new way,

接下来我们试图用新的视角来利用斯特停机，

由于它的实用性--轻巧的重量适于我们的应用

because it was practical --

weight no longer mattered for our application.

内燃机过于笨重，因此不适用，

The internal combustion engine took off because weight mattered,

毕竟有移动的需求。

because you were moving around.

But if you're trying to generate solar energy in a static place

但是当尝试在一个固定的位置利用太阳能

重量问题就不重要了。

the weight doesn't matter so much.

另外一个不需要考虑的是效率，

We also discovered that efficiency doesn't matter so much

当能量来源是免费可得时。

if your energy source is free.

Normally, efficiency is crucial

通常情况下， 效率是必须考虑的。

because the fuel cost of your engine over its life

因为相对于燃料费用， 初期购买费用实在是不那么多。

dwarfs the cost of the engine.

But if your fuel source is free,

但是在燃料是免费供应的时候，

then the only thing that matters

唯一影响投资的就是引擎的价格了。

is the up-front capital cost of the engine.

所以你不会急于优化效率，

So you don't want to optimize for efficiency,

重要的是优化投资与产出。

you want to optimize for power per dollar.

接下来用这个新的标准来

So using that new twist, with the new criteria,

重新检视斯特灵机，

we thought we could relook at the Stirling engine,

同时将基因算法引进。

and also bring genetic algorithms in.

基本来讲，Rober Stirling 时代还没出现 Gordon Moore

Basically, Robert Stirling didn't have Gordon Moore before him

to get us three gigahertz of processor power.

也就没有3兆处理器的辅助。

So we took the same genetic algorithm

再次用之前用过的基因算法

that we used earlier to make that concentrator,

来设计之前不太管用的太阳能收集器

which didn't work out for us,

从而优化斯特灵机。

to optimize the Stirling engine,

完成设计尺寸

and make its design sizes and all of its dimensions

最优的设计就是能够使每一美元可以产生最多的能量，

the exact optimum to get the most power per dollar,

无须考虑重量与尺寸，

irrespective of weight, irrespective of size,

just to get the most conversion of solar energy,

因为太阳能是免费的，所以重点就是尽可能多转换太阳能加以利用。

because the sun is free.

我们就是以这个为出发点来设计的-请让我向你展示引擎是如何工作的。

And that's the process we took -- let me show you how the engine works.

最简单的热机，或是热空气机，

The simplest heat engine, or hot air engine, of all time

由钢铁的缸体和活塞组成。

would be this -- take a box, a steel canister, with a piston.

Put a flame under it, the piston moves up.

燃烧使活塞向上运动。

Take it off the flame and pour water on it, or let it cool down,

停止燃烧用水冷去，活塞就做向下运动。

the piston moves down.

That's a heat engine.

这就是热机。

That's the most fundamental heat engine you could have.

大家能得到的最基本的热机。

The problem is the efficiency is one hundredth of one percent,

问题在于效率只有百分之一。

because you're heating all the metal of the chamber

因为热量是用于加热整个缸体的金属体，

and then cooling all the metal of the chamber each time.

相应地每次也需冷却整个缸体的金属体。

可是每次地，你只利用了被加热的空气的能量，

And you're only getting power from the air that's heating at the same time,

于是也就浪费了所有用来加热和冷却金属的那部分能量

but you're wasting energy heating and cooling the metal.

接着有人很清楚地意识到，

So someone came up with a very clever idea.

不需对整个缸体进行加热和冷却，

Instead of heating and cooling the whole cylinder,

不如在缸体里充入替代物--

what about if you put a displacer inside --

使空气来回的运动。

a little thing that shuttles the air back and forth.

用少量的能量来移动它

You move that up and down with a little bit of energy

但是能够做到将空气下移到热端，上移到冷端，

but now you're only shifting the air down to the hot end and up to the cold end.

再下移到热端，上移到冷端。

So, now you're not alternately heating and cooling the metal, just the air.

于是，现在你不是交替加热与冷却金属，

而是交替加热和冷却空气。

That allows you to get the efficiency up

这种做法能够让效率从百分之一提高到

from a hundredth of a percent to about two percent.

大约百分之二。

这个聪明的设想是有Robert Stirling 提出的，

And then Robert Stirling came along with this genius idea,

不加热金属部分了现在，

which was, well, I'm still not heating the metal now,

with this kind of engine,

但是在这种引擎里，我还得从新加热所有的空气。

but I'm still reheating all the air.

仍旧是每次循环里，完全加热空气，然后再完全的冷却它。

I'm still heating the air every time and cooling the air every time.

如果我在中间置一热储存体呢，

What about if I put a thermal sponge in the middle,

就在空气每次必须通过的冷热端之间的通道里？

in the passageway between where the air has to move between hot and cold?

他做了个网，和打碎的玻璃，

So he made fine wires, and cracked glass,

and all different kinds of materials to be a heat sponge.

还有其他不同的材料，用来做那个热储存体。

So when the air pushes up to go from the hot end to the cold end,

当空气由热端流向冷端，抬高活塞

it puts some heat into the sponge.

将一部分的热储存在热储存体中。

And then when the air comes back after it's been cooled,

当空气从冷端流回热端时， 已经是冷的了

将先前储存的热利用起来。

it picks up that heat again.

你就能够重复使用你的能量5-6次。

So you're reusing your energy five or six times,

将效率提高到30-40个百分比。

and that brings the efficiency up to between 30 and 40 percent.

这项Rober Stirling 的发明很少被人知道，但却非常的聪明地

It's a little known, but brilliant, genius invention of Robert Stirling

that takes the hot air engine from being somewhat impractical --

将热空气机从不实用--

就如我在高中时所认为的那样--

like I found out when I made the real simple version in high school --

变为非常地有潜力，

to very potentially possible,

一旦你可以以较低的投入设计出这种引擎，那么效率就会提高了。

once you get the efficiency up,

if you can design this to be low enough cost.

我们确实在如何降低成本上下了很多功夫

So we really set out on a path to try and make the lowest cost possible.

We built a huge mathematical model of how a Stirling engine works.

我们开发了一个很大的数学模型用来解决斯特灵机工作的问题。

通过基因算法

We applied the genetic algorithm.

取得了一些结果。

We got the results from that for the optimal engine.

We built engines --

在过去的两年里做了百余种不同的引擎。

so we built 100 different engines over the last two years.

测试每一个，调整模型，

We measured each one, we readjusted the model to what we measured,

得出了现在的这个原型。

and then we led that to the current prototype.

非常紧凑，并且不贵。

It led to a very compact, inexpensive engine,

这就是这个引擎的外形。

and this is what the engine looks like.

让我想你展示它。

Let me show you what it looks like in real life.

恩， 这就是我们的引擎。

So this is the engine. It's just a small cylinder down here,

这下面有个小的缸体， 里面是所有的零件和发生器

which holds the generator inside and all the linkage,

这里是热端--顶部的热的活塞==

and it's the hot cap -- the hot cylinder on the top --

这个部分变热，这个部分温度较低，

this part gets hot, this part is cool,

and electricity comes out.

可以输出电能。

The exact converse is also true.

相反的转换也可实现。

If you put electricity in, this will get hot and this will get cold,

如果输入电能，这将变热，这儿将变冷，

你可以当冷却装置用。

you get refrigeration.

So it's a complete reversible cycle,

所以是个可逆循环，

a very efficient cycle, and quite a simple thing to make.

非常的有效率，并且制作容易。

恩现在你能将两样东西放在一块儿。

So now you put the two things together.

现在有了引擎，

So you have the engine.

What if you combine the petals and the engine in the center?

如果你将瓣体和引擎放在一起。

瓣体将追逐阳光，引擎获得被聚焦了的阳光，

The petals track and the engine gets the concentrated sunlight,

利用其热能，转换为电能。

takes that heat and turns it into electricity.

这个是我们的第一个原型的样子

This is what the first prototype of our system looked like

在中间有板梯和引擎。

with the petals and the engine in the center.

在阳光中运行。

This is being run out in the sun,

现在我想展示下原型。

and now I want to show you what the actual thing looks like.

(Applause)

（掌声）

Thank you.

谢谢。

具有12个瓣体。

So this is a unit with the 12 petals.

These petals cost about a dollar each --

每个板梯大概1美金--

they're lightweight, injection-molded plastic, aluminized.

轻质的，吹塑塑料，表面镀铝。

The mechanism to control each petal is below there,

每个瓣体下有个微型处理器来控制它。

with a microprocessor on each one.

在引擎下有测温计--小的传感器

There are thermocouples on the engine --

little sensors that detect the heat when the sunlight strikes them.

用以观测照其表面的太阳光能量。

Each petal adjusts itself separately to keep the highest temperature on it.

每个瓣体独立调整以保证最大限度的温升。

When the sun comes out in the morning, the petals will seek the sun,

早晨太阳升起时， 瓣体将搜寻太阳位置，

find it by searching for the highest temperature.

通过感应最高的温度

一两分钟后，光线将聚焦在热端

About a minute and a half or two minutes after the rays are striking the hot cap

the engine will be warm enough to start

引擎开始足够热，能够开始工作了

and then the engine will generate electricity

一天大概能产电6或者6个半小时--

for about six and a half hours a day --

太阳扫过天空的6或者6个半小时。

six and a half to seven hours as the sun moves across the sky.

我们利用的很好的一个重要的部件是

A critical part that we can take advantage of

这些便宜的微处理器

is that we have these inexpensive microprocessors

使每个瓣体能够独立调整，

and each of these petals is autonomous,

找寻太阳的位置，无需人工干预。

and each of these petals figures out where the sun is with no user setup.

So you don't have to tell what latitude, longitude you're at,

所以你不用告诉纬度海拔等信息，

也不用告诉你屋顶的角度，

what your roof slope angle is, or what orientation.

处在何地。

It doesn't really care.

那些都不需要考虑。

What it does is it searches to find the hottest spot,

它会自动搜寻最热点，

it searches again a half an hour later, a day later, a month later.

半小时后再搜寻一次，每天后再搜寻一次，

每月后再搜寻一次。

It basically figures out where on Earth you are

基本上可以通过太阳移动的方式告诉你，你身在何处。

by watching the direction the sun moves,

所以你不许输入任何东西。

so you don't have to actually enter anything about that.

这个单元工作的方式是，当太阳升起

The way the unit works is,

when the sun comes out, the engine will start

引擎开始工作，你开始获得能源

and you get power out here.

交流或者直流电， 12伏特的直流，

We have AC and DC, get 12 volts DC,

so that could be used for certain applications.

可用于一定的地方。

还有个转换器， 所以也能得到117伏特的交流电

We have an inverter in there, so you get 117 volts AC.

也能得到热水，

And you also get hot water. The hot water's optional.

热水产出是可选的。

You don't have to use it, it will cool itself.

如果你不用热水，没关系，自己会冷却的。

But you can use it to optionally heat hot water

但是你可以选择使用这热水，

and that brings the efficiency up even higher

这将是效率进一步提高，

because some of the heat that you'd normally be rejecting,

因为不用的话就损失那一部分，

可以用在游泳池或是热水。

you can now use as useful energy, whether it's for a pool or hot water.

让我展示下工作时的样子。

Let me show you a quick movie of what this looks like running.

这是第一次在外的演示，

This is the first test where we took it outside

and each of the petals were individually seeking.

看到每个瓣体独立搜寻。

逐步的搜寻，先是比较粗糙地，

And what they do is step, very coarsely at first,

and very finely afterward.

接着较精细地搜寻。

Once they get a temperature reading on the thermocouple

一旦热传感器上的温度显示已经找到了太阳，

indicating they found the sun,

they slow down and do a fine search.

速度就降下来，开始微调，

Then the petals will move into position, and the engine will start.

每个瓣体各就各位，引擎开始工作。

我们在这上面画了过去两年的时间。

We've been working on this for the last two years.

对进展非常的兴奋， 也有很大的进步空间，

We're very excited about the progress, we have a long way to go though.

再补充说下，

This is how we envision it would be in a residential installation:

这是可用于住户的设备，

you'd probably have more than one unit on your roof.

你肯能有多个在房顶。

可以再房顶，后院，或是别的什么地方。

It could be on your roof, your backyard, or somewhere else.

不是要你安装很多，来全权的为你的房子供电，

You don't have to have enough units to power your entire house,

只是通过安装这个可以省些钱。

you just save money with each incremental one you add.

So you're still using the grid potentially,

你可以通过安装这个设备，

in this type of application, to be your backup supply --

来作为储备能源--当然，晚上不能用，

of course, you can't use these at night, and you can't use these on cloudy days.

阴天不能用。

在用电高峰时段，可以减低你的能源需求--

But by reducing your energy use, pretty much at the peak times --

usually when you have your air conditioning on,

通常是开空调，或是其他什么时候--

or other times like that --

在高峰时段里为你产能，

this generates the peak power at the peak usage time,

so it's very complementary in that sense.

所以这个意义上非常的能起到辅助作用。

This is how we would envision a residential application.

这是我们开发民用设备的过程。

我们认为有很大潜力来开发一个能源农场

We also think there's very big potential for energy farms,

特别是在边缘地区，通常有很充沛的阳光。

especially in remote land where there happens to be a lot of sun.

这是非常有利的两个组合因素。

It's a really good combination of those two factors.

研究表明显然地，世界上有大量的太阳能，

It turns out there's a lot of powerful sun all around the world, obviously,

在一些特殊的地方，恰巧放置这些太阳能设备又代价很低，

but in special places

where it happens to be relatively inexpensive to place these

同样的是风能的情况。

and also in many more places where there is high wind power.

So an example of that is, here's the map of the United States.

这里举个例子， 美国的地图。

Pretty much everywhere that's not green or blue is a really ideal place,

只要不是绿色和蓝色的地方都是非常理想的地方，

but even the green or blue areas are good,

即使是那些绿色和蓝色的地方也是不错的，

just not as good as the places that are red, orange and yellow.

只是没有红，橘和黄色地段的那样好。

在拉斯维加斯和死亡谷周围的热点，

But the hot spot right around Las Vegas and Death Valley is very good.

是特别，特别的适宜。

And is only affects the payback period,

这个是影响回报周期，

it doesn't mean that you couldn't use solar energy;

但是并不意味着你不能用太阳能，

you could use it anywhere on Earth.

你可以在世界上任何一个地方使用太阳能。

It just affects the payback period

只是回报周期不同， 与从商业电网买电相比。

if you're comparing to grid-supplied electricity.

但是当你没有电网时，

But if you don't have grid-supplied electricity,

回报问题又是另外一个了，

then the question of payback is a different one entirely.

只是每美元你能得到多少度电，

It's just how many watts do you get per dollar,

和你是如何受益于太阳能

and how could you benefit from that to change your life in some way.

改变你的生活。

美国地图，

This is the map of the whole Earth,

世界地图

and you can see a huge swathe in the middle

你能看见巨大的一带在中部

where a large part of the population is,

那里有着众多的人口，

there's tremendous chances for solar energy.

极大的太阳能使用机会。

And of course, look at Africa.

当然，看看非洲地区。

The potential to take advantage of solar energy there is unbelievable,

你无法想象那里的太阳能潜力，

关于帮助方式的发现，我是很乐意去谈的。

and I'm really excited to talk more about finding ways we can help with that.

恩， 总的来说，

So, in conclusion, I would say my journey has shown me

我的经历可以告诉你， 用新的角度方法来重新发展旧的想法，

that you can revisit old ideas in a new light,

and sometimes ideas that have been discarded in the past

那些在过去可能不现实的主意，

can be practical now if you apply some new technology or new twists.

在今天可能会很有实用价值， 因为我们有新的科技或新的进展的辅助。

相信我们已经离实用性和可负担的设计非常的近了。

We believe we're getting very close to something practical and affordable.

短期目标是价格为太阳能电池的一半。

Our short-term goal for this is to be half the price of solar cells

长期目标是是短于5年的投资回报。

and our longer-term goal is to be less than a five-year payback.

And at less than a five-year payback, this becomes very economic.

如果5年内能够取得回报，所有的一切将变得非常的经济。

你将不只基于关心能源问题

So you don't have to just have a feel-good attitude about energy

to want to have one of these.

而想购置这么一个设备。

It just makes economic sense.

从经济上来说，太阳能源也将变得是非常明智的选择

Right now, solar paybacks are between 30 and 50 years.

现在，回报周期在30-50年。

If you get it down below five years,

如果这个周期短于5年，那么根本不用考虑了，

then it's almost a no-brainer because the interest to own it --

由于其益处--会有人资助你的

someone else will finance it for you and you can just make money from day one.

所以说，从第一天开始你就是赚的

所以那时我们公司的终极目标。

So that's our real powerful goal

that we're really shooting for in the company.

从中我学道德两件其他的事情是

Two other things that I learned that were very surprising to me --

第一件，我们对于能源是多么的习以为常，

one was how casual we are about energy.

从电梯走到这，

I was walking from the elevator over here,

and even just looking at the stage right now --

甚至看看现在的讲台-

so there's probably 20,500-watt lights right now.

大概有20500瓦的照明灯，

There's 10,000 watts of light pouring on the stage,

有10000瓦的灯照向讲台，

one horsepower is 746 watts, at full power.

1马力是756瓦特， 全力的。

So there's basically 15 horses running at full speed just to keep the stage lit.

所以基本上是有15匹马全力的跑动带动了讲台的照明。

跟别提带该有200匹马现在在跑

Not to mention the 200 horses that are probably running right now

以维持空调运行。

to keep the air-conditioning going.

非常令人讶异，走进电梯，电梯里有灯照明。

And it's just amazing,

walk in the elevator, and there's lights on in the elevator.

当然了，现在我对家里不必要的开灯非常敏感。

Of course, now I'm very sensitive at home when we leave the lights on by mistake.

但是， 我们周遭到处有无止尽的能源需求，

But, everywhere around us we have insatiable use for energy

原因是价格如此的低。

because it's so cheap.

便宜是因为我们接受了

And it's cheap because we've been subsidized by energy

有太阳汇聚积累下的能量。

that's been concentrated by the sun.

本质来讲，石油也是太阳能的聚集。

Basically, oil is solar-energy concentrate.

是10亿年来的太阳能

It's been pounded for a billion years with a lot of energy

to make it have all that energy contained in it.

使之凝聚在石油之中。

And we don't have a birthright

我们不明智的只是尽快地使用这些能量。

to just use that up as fast as we are, I think.

我认为，使能量循环利用，是非常重要的，

And it would be great if we could make our energy usage renewable,

where as we're using the energy, we're creating it at the same pace,

将我们使用的能量与产生的能量保持平衡，

我真心希望可以实现这一点。

and I really hope we can get there.

非常感谢，谢谢您的听讲。

Thank you very much, you've been a great audience.

（掌声）♫