Bill Gross: Great ideas for finding new energy

譯者: kane tan 審譯者: Lin Su-Wei(林書暐)

Right when I was 15 was when I first got interested in solar energy.

當我十五歲的時候，我開始對太陽能產生興趣。

當時我們家從紐澤西州的李堡搬到加州去，

My family had moved from Fort Lee, New Jersey to California,

from the snow to lots of heat, and gas lines.

從到處都是雪的地方，搬到有許多熱氣與天然氣管路的地方。

There was gas rationing in 1973.

在1973，天然氣是以管制配給的方式。

The energy crisis was in full bore.

當時正值能源危機。

I started reading "Popular Science" magazine,

我開始閱讀科普雜誌(Popular Science magazine)，

and I got really excited about the potential of solar energy

並且對於嘗試使用太陽能

to try and solve that crisis.

來解決這個危機產生興趣。

I had just taken trigonometry in high school,

我剛從高中課程學到了三角函數，

I learned about the parabola

我學到關於拋物面鏡

and how it could concentrate rays of light to a single focus.

以及它如何可以讓光線聚集在一點。

這讓我很興奮。

That got me very excited.

And I really felt that there would be potential

我覺得建造一個可以聚集光線的東西

to build some kind of thing that could concentrate light.

是很有前景的一件事。

於是我開了一間公司叫太陽能設備(Solar Devices)。

So, I started this company called Solar Devices.

我在這家公司裡製造拋物面鏡，

And this was a company where I built parabolas,

I took metal shop,

我到了金屬加工廠中，

and I remember walking into metal shop building parabolas and Stirling engines.

我在金屬加工廠裡製作拋物面鏡以及史特林引擎(Stirling Engine)。

當我用車床做史特林引擎的時候，

And I was building a Stirling engine over on the lathe,

那些騎士 - 騎機車的 - 跑過來圍觀，

and all the motorcycle guys said, "You're building a bong, aren't you?"

他們問我：「你在做抽大麻的煙斗，對吧？」

我說：「不是，這是史特林引擎。真的啦。」

And I said, "No, it's a Stirling engine." But they didn't believe me.

但他們不相信我說的。

I sold the plans for this engine

之後我把史特林引擎和碟型鏡的設計圖

and for this dish in the back of "Popular Science" magazine,

以各4美元的價錢在科普雜誌後面進行販賣。

for four dollars each.

我賺到足夠的錢來支付我在加州理工第一年的學費。

And I earned enough money to pay for my first year of Caltech.

能夠進入加州理工讓我相當的興奮。

It was a really big excitement for me to get into Caltech.

在加州理工的第一年，我持續做這項生意。

And at my first year at Caltech, I continued the business.

但是，在加州理工的第二年之後，他們開始進行評分制度。

But then, in the second year of Caltech, they started grading.

第一年只有及格與不及格，但第二年開始進行評分。

The whole first year was pass/fail, but the second year was graded.

我沒辦法繼續兼顧生意，

I wasn't able to keep up with the business,

於是這讓我繞了25年的路。

and I ended up with a 25-year detour.

我的夢想是以很經濟的花費來轉換太陽能，

My dream had been to convert solar energy at a very practical cost,

但我卻繞了一大段路。

but then I had this big detour.

First, the coursework at Caltech.

首先是加州理工的學業。

Then, when I graduated from Caltech, the IBM PC came out,

之後，當我從加州理工畢業時，IBM推出個人電腦，

and I got addicted to the IBM PC in 1981.

在1981年，我迷上IBM的個人電腦。

And then in 1983, Lotus 1-2-3 came out,

之後在1983年，Lotus 1-2-3 也被推出了，

and I was completely blown away by Lotus 1-2-3.

於是我又完全迷上 Lotus 1-2-3。

我開始用1-2-3來做生意，開始寫1-2-3的附加程式，

I began operating my business with 1-2-3, began writing add-ins for 1-2-3,

幫1-2-3寫了一個自然語言界面。

wrote a natural language interface to 1-2-3.

I started an educational software company after I joined Lotus,

我加入Lotus之後，創立了一個教育軟體公司，

接下來，我開了Idealab這家公司，

and then I started Idealab so I could have a roof

這樣我就能在其下繼續建立很多個公司。

under which I could build multiple companies in succession.

在很久之後的2000年，加州面臨了新的能源危機 -

Much later -- in 2000, very recently -- the new California energy crisis --

人們認為很重大的能源危機來臨了。

what was purported to be a big energy crisis -- was coming.

我一直試圖尋找一些方法，

And I was trying to figure out

if we could build something that would capitalize on that

看看是否能夠建造一些儲能設施，

當能源危機真的到來時，

and get people backup energy, in case the crisis really came.

人們就有備用的能源可以使用。

And I started looking at how we could build battery backup systems

我開始研究如何建造備用的電池系統，

這個系統可以提供人們 5小時、10小時甚至一整天，

that could give people five hours, 10 hours, maybe even a full day,

或甚至 3天的備用能源。

or three days' worth of backup power.

我想你們都已經知道，

I'm glad you heard earlier today, batteries are unbelievably --

電池是很不可思議的能源 - 能源密度和燃料相比很小。

lack density compared to fuel.

So much more energy can be stored with fuel than with batteries.

燃料能儲存的能源比電池多很多。

You'd have to fill your entire parking space of one garage space

如果你想用電池儲存4小時的備用電力，

你必須把整個車庫都塞滿電池才行。

just to give yourself four hours of battery backup.

在研究過各種技術之後，我的結論是

And I concluded, after researching every other technology

我們能利用飛輪電池 - 一種不一樣的電池

that we could deploy for storing energy --

來儲存能源，

flywheels, different formulations of batteries --

it just wasn't practical to store energy.

但這樣實在很不實用。

So what about making energy? Maybe we could make energy.

那創造能源呢？

也許我們可以創造能源。

I tried to figure out -- maybe solar's become attractive.

我試著去了解 - 也許太陽能已經變得有吸引力了。

It's been 25 years since I was doing this,

距離我之前做太陽能已經有25年，

let me go back and look at what's been happening with solar cells.

我回頭看太陽能電池在這些年來有什麼進展。

發電1瓦的價格已經從10美金降到4~5美金，

And the price had gone down from 10 dollars a watt

to about four or five dollars a watt, but it stabilized.

但它已經不再改變了。

And it needed to get much lower to be cost-effective.

要有經濟效益的話，就必須要再壓低價格。

我研究各種太陽能電池的新設計，

I studied all the new things that had happened in solar cells,

試著去找出一些方法

and was looking for ways we could make solar cells more inexpensively.

讓我們能創造出更便宜的太陽能電池。

A lot of new things are happening to do that,

有許多新的設計可以用來完成這個目標，

but fundamentally, the process requires a tremendous amount of energy.

但是製作的基本過程會耗費極大量的能量。

Some people say it takes more energy to make a solar cell

有些人甚至會說，製作太陽能電池耗費的能量

than it will give out in its entire life.

比電池能夠放出的能量還要多。

If we reduce the amount of energy it takes to make the cells,

所幸，只要我們能夠降低製造耗費的能量，

that will become more practical.

這就可能變得比較實用一點。

But right now, you pretty much have to take silicon,

但是現在，你必須把矽

put it in an oven at 1600 F for 17 hours, to make the cells.

放入華氏1600度的烤箱中17個小時，才能做出電池。

A lot of people are working to try and reduce that,

有許多人正在努力嘗試去降低這個能量消耗，

but I didn't have anything to contribute.

在這個領域中我沒辦法貢獻什麼。

So I tried to figure out what other way could we try

於是我試著去找尋其他方法獲得有經濟效益的太陽能電力。

to make cost-effective solar electricity.

我想到一個方法 - 如果我們用一個巨大的反射鏡來收集陽光呢?

What if we collect the sun with a large reflector --

正如同我在高中時所想的一樣，

like I had been thinking about in high school,

現在的技術也許可以製造出更大更便宜的收集器？

but maybe with modern technology we could make it cheaper --

再將陽光聚集到一個小的能量轉換器，

concentrate it to a small converter,

而這個能量轉換裝置不需要很昂貴，

and then the conversion device wouldn't have to be as expensive,

因為它很小，比起需要覆蓋大量面積

because it's much smaller, rather than solar cells,

來獲取陽光的太陽能電池而言小多了。

which have to cover the entire surface that you want to gather sun from.

現在這個看起來實用多了，

This seemed practical now,

因為從我最後接觸它到現在的25年間有許多的新科技出現。

because a lot of new technologies had come in the 25 years

since I had last looked at it.

首先，有許多的新製造技術，

There was a lot of new manufacturing techniques,

更不用說那些很便宜的微型馬達 -

not to mention really cheap miniature motors --

無刷馬達、伺服馬達、步進馬達等，

brushless motors, servomotors, stepper motors,

這些被用於印表機和掃描器以及類似的東西上。

that are used in printers and scanners.

這是一個突破。

So, that's a breakthrough.

Of course, inexpensive microprocessors

當然，還有便宜的微處理器，

and a very important breakthrough -- genetic algorithms.

以及很重要的突破 - 基因演算法。

我會盡量簡短說明基因演算法。

I'll be very short on genetic algorithms.

這是用物競天擇的手法來解決困難問題的強大手段。

It's a powerful way of solving intractable problems using natural selection.

你把無法以純數學方式解出的問題代入，

You take a problem that you can't solve with a pure mathematical answer,

建立一個演化系統，利用多次猜測方式來進行，

you build an evolutionary system to try multiple tries at guessing,

並放入性別 -

you add sex --

where you take half of one solution and half of another

把一半的解答和另一半的解答帶入，創造出新的變異解答 -

and then make new mutations --

然後利用自然選擇法將不好的解答剔除。

and you use natural selection to kill off not-as-good solutions.

現在使用一個有3GHz Cpu的電腦

Usually, with a genetic algorithm on a computer today,

以基因演算法進行運算的話，

with a three gigahertz processor,

通常你可以在幾分鐘內

you can solve many formerly intractable problems

解出許多在以前是非常困難的問題。

in just a matter of minutes.

So we tried to come up with a way to use genetic algorithms

我們試著以基因演算法來創造一個方法

to create a new type of concentrator.

以製造新的能量集中器。

And I'll show you what we came up with.

我會讓大家看我們的研究成果。

Traditionally, concentrators look like this.

傳統的集中器是這個樣子。

Those shapes are parabolas.

這些形狀就是拋物面鏡。

They take all the parallel incoming rays and focus it to a single spot.

它們將平行進入的光線，聚集成一個光點。

They have to track the sun,

它們必須跟著太陽移動，因為它們必須直接朝向陽光。

because they have to point directly at the sun.

通常它們容許一度的角度誤差，

They usually have a one degree acceptance angle --

意思是說一旦超過一度，

once they're more than a degree off,

任何陽光都無法被聚集。

none of the sunlight rays will hit the focus.

所以我們試著製作不需要移動的收集器，

So we tried to come up with a non-tracking collector

可以收集遠大於1度光線的收集器，

that would gather much more than one degree of light, with no moving parts.

而且不具有移動裝置。

於是我們創造了這個基因演算法並試著這麼做，

So we created a genetic algorithm to try this out,

我們製作了一個有著許多面的巨大反射鏡，

we made a model in Excel of a multisurface reflector,

在許多次的嘗試後，

and an amazing thing evolved, literally,

有了巨大的演進，

from trying a billion cycles, a billion different attempts,

利用適合的方程式，在一天之中，大部分的角度下，

with a fitness function that defined how can you collect the most light,

from the most angles, over a day, from the sun.

可以讓你收集到最多的陽光。

這就是演進後的形狀。

And this is the shape that evolved.

It's this non-tracking collector with these six tuba-like horns,

這是一個不需要移動的收集器，有個六個喇叭形狀的角，

它們會利用這個方式收集陽光 -

and each of them collect light in the following way --

當陽光照射在這裡，

if the sunlight strikes right here,

it might bounce right to the center, the hot spot, directly,

它會直接反射到中心，最熱的點，

但當陽光低於軸線改由側向進入時，

but if the sun is off axis and comes from the side,

它會照射在這兩個地方，然後反射兩次。

it might hit two places and take two bounces.

So for direct light, it takes only one bounce,

所以，直接照射的光線會反射一次，

偏離軸線的光線會反射兩次，

for off-axis light it might take two,

and for extreme off-axis, it might take three.

對於偏離軸線很多的則可能會反射三次。

Your efficiency goes down with more bounces,

效率會隨著反射次數而降低，

because you lose about 10 percent with each bounce,

因為每一次都會損失約10%的能量。

但這可以讓我們在正負25度下收集陽光。

but this allowed us to collect light from a plus or minus 25-degree angle.

於是一天之中，我們可以利用這個固定的設備收集2.5小時的陽光。

So, about two and a half hours of the day

we could collect with a stationary component.

Solar cells collect light for four and a half hours though.

然而太陽能電池一天可以收集4.5小時。

On an average adjusted day, a solar cell --

對太陽能電池而言，以平均調整過的時間來說，

because the sun's moving across the sky,

由於太陽會橫越過天空，

the solar cell is going down with a sine wave function of performance

在陽光不在軸線上時，

太陽能電池的效能會以正弦波的函數下降。

at the off-axis angles.

It collects about four and a half average hours of sunlight a day.

在一天之中，收集約4.5小時的陽光。

所以即使我們可以不使用移動裝置 -

So even this, although it was great with no moving parts --

我們可以達到高溫 - 這樣還是不夠。

we could achieve high temperatures -- wasn't enough.

我們必須要超越太陽能電池。

We needed to beat solar cells.

所以我們考慮另一個想法。

So we took a look at another idea.

We looked at a way to break up a parabola into individual petals that would track.

我們試著將拋物面鏡拆成許多獨立可以移動的花瓣。

你可以看見這兒有12片分開的花瓣，

So what you see here is 12 separate petals

每個都被獨立的微處理器控制著，

that each could be controlled with individual microprocessors

這些處裡器每個只要1塊美金。

that would only cost a dollar.

You can buy a two-megahertz microprocessor for a dollar now.

現在你只要花1美金就買到2Mhz的微處理器。

And you can buy stepper motors that pretty much never wear out

你可以只花1美金買到幾乎不會壞的步進馬達

because they have no brushes,

因為它們沒有電刷。

for a dollar.

So we can control all 12 of these petals for under 50 dollars

我們可以只花不到50美金來控制12片花瓣

and what this would allow us to do is not have to move the focus any more,

這可以讓我們只要移動花瓣就好，

but only move the petals.

不需要去移動集中位置。

The whole system would have a much lower profile,

這整個系統效能的差異就會變小，

but also we could gather sunlight for six and a half to seven hours a day.

另外，我們一天可以收集6.5~7小時的陽光。

現在我們有了集中的陽光，

Now that we have concentrated sunlight,

我們要把什麼放在中央來把陽光轉換成電呢?

what are we going to put at the center to convert sunlight to electricity?

我們試著了解熱機的演進歷史，

So we tried to look at all the different heat engines

that have been used in history to convert sunlight or heat to electricity,

以嘗試將陽光轉換成電或將熱轉換成電。

And one of the great ones of all time,

這是其中一個很棒的熱機,

James Watt's steam engine of 1788 was a major breakthrough.

瓦特在1788年製作的蒸汽機是熱機的一大突破。

事實上瓦特並沒有發明蒸汽機，他只是把它改良了。

James Watt didn't actually invent the steam engine, he just refined it.

但是他的改良結果相當驚人。

But his refinements were incredible.

他在活塞上增加了一個新的線性運動導引器，

He added new linear motion guides to the pistons,

他在圓桶外加上冷凝裝置來冷卻蒸汽，

he added a condenser to cool the steam outside the cylinder,

他讓這個熱機引擎效率提升兩倍，所以可以產生兩倍的能量。

he made the engine double-acting, so it had double the power.

這些是主要的突破。

Those were major breakthroughs. All of the improvements he made --

我是指，這些他所做的改進 -

and it's justifiable that our measure of energy, the watt,

以及這可以讓我們用來量測能量的單位，瓦特，就是因他為命名。

today is named after him.

So we looked at this engine, and this had some potential.

所以我們檢視這具熱機引擎，它確實有一些潛力。

蒸汽引擎是很危險的，

Steam engines are dangerous,

and they had tremendous impact on the world --

然而它們對這世界產生了莫大的影響，如你所知 -

industrial revolution and ships and locomotives.

工業革命、船以及汽車的出現。

但是，它們通常越大越好，

But they're usually good to be large,

so they're not good for distributed power generation.

所以不適合用在移動式的發電器具上。

但因為它們會產生很高的蒸汽壓力，所以很危險。

They're also very high-pressure, so they're dangerous.

Another type of engine is the hot air engine.

另一種熱機引擎是熱空氣引擎。

And the hot air engine also was not invented by Robert Stirling,

熱空氣引擎也不是由史特林發明的，

but Robert Stirling came along in 1816 and radically improved it.

但史特林在1816年徹底地改良它。

This engine, because it was so interesting --

這個熱機引擎相當有意思，因為它是用空氣而不是蒸汽，

it only worked on air, no steam --

has led to hundreds of creative designs over the years

也因此數百種依據史特林引擎基本原理的熱機

that use the Stirling engine principle.

在這些年來陸續出現。

But after the Stirling engine, Otto came along,

在史特林引擎之後，奧圖也隨之而起，

and also, he didn't invent the internal combustion engine,

同樣的，他不是內燃機的發明者，他只是改良了它。

he just refined it.

他在1867年的巴黎展示了奧圖引擎，

He showed it in Paris in 1867, and it was a major achievement

這是一項重大的成就，

because it brought the power density of the engine way up.

因為它讓引擎的能量密度大幅提昇。

你可以只使用很小的空間來獲取很大量的能量，

You could now get a lot more power in a lot smaller space,

這讓引擎可以用於移動工具上。

and that allowed the engine to be used for mobile applications.

於是，一旦你有了移動性，

So, once you have mobility,

you're making a lot of engines because you've got lots of units,

因為你有很多組套件，

as opposed to steam ships or big factories,

相對於蒸汽船或大型工廠，你就沒辦法建造許多組套件，

so this was the engine that ended up benefiting from mass production

所以這是一種很有利於大量製造的引擎，

where all the other engines didn't.

這種好處是別的引擎所沒有的。

So, because it went into mass production,

所以，因為它進入了大量製造，

costs were reduced, 100 years of refinement,

價格逐漸下降，加上百年來的改良，

emissions were reduced, tremendous production value.

能量損失變少了，相當好的生產價值。

There have been hundreds of millions of internal combustion engines built,

好幾億的內燃機被建造出來，

相對的，被建造的史特林引擎只有幾千具。

compared to thousands of Stirling engines built.

小型蒸汽引擎不再被製造，

And not nearly as many small steam engines being built anymore,

而大型蒸汽引擎也只用在較大的工作上。

only large ones for big operations.

So after looking at these three, and 47 others,

所以看完這三種以及其他四十七種引擎後，

we concluded that the Stirling engine would be the best one to use.

我們的結論是，史特林引擎最適合我們使用。

I want to give you a brief explanation of how we looked at it and how it works.

我會簡短的介紹它的樣子以及它的運作方式。

So we tried to look at the Stirling engine in a new way,

我們試著用一種新的方式來看待史特林引擎，

因為在我們的實際操作中重量並不重要，所以它很實用。

because it was practical --

weight no longer mattered for our application.

內燃機很實用，是因為當你移動的時候

The internal combustion engine took off because weight mattered,

重量很重要。

because you were moving around.

But if you're trying to generate solar energy in a static place

但是如果你想在固定位置製造太陽能源，

重量就不怎麼重要了。

the weight doesn't matter so much.

另一件我們要討論的事是，當你的能量來源是免費時，

We also discovered that efficiency doesn't matter so much

效率就不怎麼重要了。

if your energy source is free.

Normally, efficiency is crucial

一般來說，效率很重要

because the fuel cost of your engine over its life

因為引擎的燃料成本會使引擎的造價影響變小。

dwarfs the cost of the engine.

But if your fuel source is free,

但是如果你的燃料來源是免費的，

then the only thing that matters

唯一重要的就是引擎的造價了。

is the up-front capital cost of the engine.

所以你不會想要去改善效率，

So you don't want to optimize for efficiency,

你想要改善每一塊錢能獲得的能量。

you want to optimize for power per dollar.

所以使用這新的條件，新的標準，

So using that new twist, with the new criteria,

我們重新再看看史特林引擎，

we thought we could relook at the Stirling engine,

並且也將基因演算法帶入。

and also bring genetic algorithms in.

基本上，史特林的時代還沒有戈登摩爾的出現

Basically, Robert Stirling didn't have Gordon Moore before him

to get us three gigahertz of processor power.

所以不像我們有3GHz的處理器可以用。

So we took the same genetic algorithm

所以我們使用先前相同的基因演算法

that we used earlier to make that concentrator,

來製作能量集中器，之前效果不好的那個，

which didn't work out for us,

用來改善史特林引擎。

to optimize the Stirling engine,

並且計算出最佳的尺寸大小

and make its design sizes and all of its dimensions

每一塊錢可以獲取最大能量的最佳參數，

the exact optimum to get the most power per dollar,

不考慮重量和尺寸，

irrespective of weight, irrespective of size,

just to get the most conversion of solar energy,

以獲得最大的太陽能量轉換，因為陽光是不用錢。

because the sun is free.

這就是我們所選擇的程序 - 讓我展示這個引擎如何運作。

And that's the process we took -- let me show you how the engine works.

最簡單的熱機，或說是熱空氣引擎

The simplest heat engine, or hot air engine, of all time

是這樣子的 - 拿一個箱子，一個小型不鏽鋼容器，還有一個活塞。

would be this -- take a box, a steel canister, with a piston.

Put a flame under it, the piston moves up.

在下面點火，活塞就會向上移動。

Take it off the flame and pour water on it, or let it cool down,

把火移開並澆入水，或讓它冷卻，活塞就會下降。

the piston moves down.

That's a heat engine.

這就是熱機。

That's the most fundamental heat engine you could have.

這是熱機最基本的原理。

The problem is the efficiency is one hundredth of one percent,

問題是它的效率只有萬分之一。

because you're heating all the metal of the chamber

因為你每次都必須將整個金屬容器加熱，

and then cooling all the metal of the chamber each time.

然後將整個金屬容器冷卻。

而你只能從被同時間被加熱的空氣來獲取能量，

And you're only getting power from the air that's heating at the same time,

但你卻浪費了所有用來加熱和冷卻金屬的能量。

but you're wasting energy heating and cooling the metal.

所以有人提出了一個聰明的想法，

So someone came up with a very clever idea.

與其加熱和冷卻整個圓柱，

Instead of heating and cooling the whole cylinder,

何不在其中放一個替代品 -

what about if you put a displacer inside --

一個能將空氣前後運送的小東西。

a little thing that shuttles the air back and forth.

你使用少量的能量將這東西上下移動，

You move that up and down with a little bit of energy

但你只是將空氣往下移到熱端以及往上移到冷端，

but now you're only shifting the air down to the hot end and up to the cold end.

往下到熱端以及往上到冷端。

So, now you're not alternately heating and cooling the metal, just the air.

所以現在你不再是加熱和冷卻那金屬容器，

你只是在加熱和冷卻空氣。

That allows you to get the efficiency up

這可以讓你將效率由原本的萬分之一

from a hundredth of a percent to about two percent.

提升到百分之二。

之後史特林提出了一個天才的想法，

And then Robert Stirling came along with this genius idea,

就是，這種引擎仍然不會去加熱金屬容器，

which was, well, I'm still not heating the metal now,

with this kind of engine,

但是可以再次去加熱空氣。

but I'm still reheating all the air.

每次依然會加熱並冷卻空氣。

I'm still heating the air every time and cooling the air every time.

如果我能把一個熱能海綿放入

What about if I put a thermal sponge in the middle,

空氣在熱與冷區域移動的通道中？

in the passageway between where the air has to move between hot and cold?

他利用細金屬繩以及破碎的玻璃，

So he made fine wires, and cracked glass,

and all different kinds of materials to be a heat sponge.

還有許多材料來製作熱能海綿。

So when the air pushes up to go from the hot end to the cold end,

當空氣由熱端向上移動至冷端時

it puts some heat into the sponge.

它會將一部份熱能傳給熱能海綿。

And then when the air comes back after it's been cooled,

當空氣被冷卻後往回移動時

它便再次取回這個熱能。

it picks up that heat again.

於是你可以重複使用這個能量五或六次。

So you're reusing your energy five or six times,

這讓效率可以提升到百分之三十到四十。

and that brings the efficiency up to between 30 and 40 percent.

史特林的這項天才發明很少人知道，但確實相當傑出，

It's a little known, but brilliant, genius invention of Robert Stirling

that takes the hot air engine from being somewhat impractical --

這讓熱空氣引擎從幾乎是不切實際 -

如果在高中時所製作的簡單版本 -

like I found out when I made the real simple version in high school --

到非常的有潛在可行性，

to very potentially possible,

一旦你可以讓效能提升，剩下的就只要降低製作成本了。

once you get the efficiency up,

if you can design this to be low enough cost.

因此我們很努力試著將製作成本達到最低。

So we really set out on a path to try and make the lowest cost possible.

We built a huge mathematical model of how a Stirling engine works.

我們建立了巨大的數學模組來模擬史特林引擎的運作模式。

我們套用了基因演算法。

We applied the genetic algorithm.

我們將運算結果用來最佳化史特林引擎的效能。

We got the results from that for the optimal engine.

We built engines --

在過去兩年中，我們建造了上百具的引擎。

so we built 100 different engines over the last two years.

我們量測了每一具，我們利用量測結果修正了那麼模組，

We measured each one, we readjusted the model to what we measured,

於是我們利用這麼模組完成了現在這個原型機。

and then we led that to the current prototype.

結果就是這個很小巧，又不貴的引擎。

It led to a very compact, inexpensive engine,

這就是這具引擎的樣子。

and this is what the engine looks like.

讓我展示給各位看看，在真實世界中它的樣子。

Let me show you what it looks like in real life.

這就是那具引擎。

So this is the engine. It's just a small cylinder down here,

這下面只是個裡面裝有發電器和一些連接線路的圓桶，

which holds the generator inside and all the linkage,

這是熱罩 - 一個在上方的熱圓柱 -

and it's the hot cap -- the hot cylinder on the top --

這部分會變熱，這部分是冷的，

this part gets hot, this part is cool,

and electricity comes out.

於是電就跑出來了。

The exact converse is also true.

逆向的反應也可以發生。

If you put electricity in, this will get hot and this will get cold,

如果你通入電，這邊會變熱，這邊會變冷，

你就有一台冷卻裝置了。

you get refrigeration.

So it's a complete reversible cycle,

這是完全可逆的循環反應，

a very efficient cycle, and quite a simple thing to make.

很有效率的循環，很簡單的反應。

所以現在將兩部分放在一起。

So now you put the two things together.

於是你有了一台引擎，

So you have the engine.

What if you combine the petals and the engine in the center?

如果你把引擎放在中間和花瓣結合在一起。

花瓣會追蹤陽光，而引擎獲得集中的陽光，

The petals track and the engine gets the concentrated sunlight,

並獲得熱能，將它轉換成電能。

takes that heat and turns it into electricity.

這是我們系統的第一個原型機的樣子，

This is what the first prototype of our system looked like

引擎在中間，和花瓣連結在一起。

with the petals and the engine in the center.

正在室外的陽光下運轉著，

This is being run out in the sun,

現在我想展示給你們看真正的東西是什麼樣子。

and now I want to show you what the actual thing looks like.

(Applause)

(掌聲)

Thank you.

謝謝。

這一組有12片花瓣

So this is a unit with the 12 petals.

These petals cost about a dollar each --

這些花瓣每一片大概 1 塊美金 -

they're lightweight, injection-molded plastic, aluminized.

它很輕，是以塑膠注射成型後再鍍上一層鋁，

The mechanism to control each petal is below there,

每一片花瓣是由其下方各自的微處理器所控制，

with a microprocessor on each one.

在引擎上有一些熱電偶 -- 小小的感應器

There are thermocouples on the engine --

little sensors that detect the heat when the sunlight strikes them.

在陽光照射到它們時，用來偵測溫度。

Each petal adjusts itself separately to keep the highest temperature on it.

每一片花瓣會分別自行進行調整以獲得最高的溫度。

When the sun comes out in the morning, the petals will seek the sun,

早上太陽出來時，花瓣們就開始找尋太陽的位置，

find it by searching for the highest temperature.

藉由尋找最高溫度的方位來找到太陽的位置。

大概一分半到兩分鐘，當光線照射到熱罩之後

About a minute and a half or two minutes after the rays are striking the hot cap

the engine will be warm enough to start

引擎會漸漸達到工作溫度而啟動，

and then the engine will generate electricity

於是引擎在這一天中將會持續發電約六個半小時 --

for about six and a half hours a day --

隨著太陽在空中移動，大約六個半小時到七個小時。

six and a half to seven hours as the sun moves across the sky.

我們所利用的一個重點是，

A critical part that we can take advantage of

我們有這些便宜的微處理器，

is that we have these inexpensive microprocessors

每一片花瓣都是自行控制的，

and each of these petals is autonomous,

每一片花瓣不需要使用者設定就可以自行找到太陽。

and each of these petals figures out where the sun is with no user setup.

So you don't have to tell what latitude, longitude you're at,

所以你不需要知道你所在的經緯度，

你不需要知道你的屋頂傾斜角度是多少，

what your roof slope angle is, or what orientation.

你不需要知道方位，

It doesn't really care.

這些都不重要。

What it does is it searches to find the hottest spot,

它會自己去找到最熱的位置，

it searches again a half an hour later, a day later, a month later.

它每半小時會重新找尋一次，一天之後也會重新找尋，

一個月之後也會再次找尋，

It basically figures out where on Earth you are

基本上它可以藉由太陽移動的方向來判斷你在地球上的那個位置，

by watching the direction the sun moves,

所以你不需要輸入任何資料。

so you don't have to actually enter anything about that.

這個套件的作用方式是，當太陽出來以後，

The way the unit works is,

when the sun comes out, the engine will start

引擎就會啟動，然後電力就會從這邊出來。

and you get power out here.

我們有 AC 和 DC 兩種選擇，有12伏特的直流電，

We have AC and DC, get 12 volts DC,

so that could be used for certain applications.

這可以用於特定的用品上。

這裡有個轉換器，所以你可以有117伏特的交流電，

We have an inverter in there, so you get 117 volts AC.

另外你也可以得到熱水。

And you also get hot water. The hot water's optional.

熱水是選配。

You don't have to use it, it will cool itself.

你不需要去使用熱水，它會自行冷卻。

But you can use it to optionally heat hot water

但你可以選擇去使用它來加熱其他的熱水，

and that brings the efficiency up even higher

這樣會讓效率達到更高，

because some of the heat that you'd normally be rejecting,

因為通常這種熱都會被廢棄，

你可以將它變成有用的能量，不論是用於溫暖水池或是加熱熱水。

you can now use as useful energy, whether it's for a pool or hot water.

讓我展示一段它如何作動的短片。

Let me show you a quick movie of what this looks like running.

這是我們將它移到室外進行的第一次測試，

This is the first test where we took it outside

and each of the petals were individually seeking.

每片花瓣自行進行搜尋。

它們一開始會很粗略的移動，

And what they do is step, very coarsely at first,

and very finely afterward.

之後變得相當細微的移動。

Once they get a temperature reading on the thermocouple

一旦它們藉由熱電偶感應溫度，顯示它們找到太陽後，

indicating they found the sun,

they slow down and do a fine search.

接著它們會慢下來，進行細微搜尋，

Then the petals will move into position, and the engine will start.

於是所有的花瓣會移動到定位，然後引擎就開始啟動。

我們已經研究這個兩年了。

We've been working on this for the last two years.

我們對進度都很滿意，雖然我們還有很常的路要走，

We're very excited about the progress, we have a long way to go though.

接下來我再補充一些。

This is how we envision it would be in a residential installation:

這是我們預期一般住宅會裝置的位置，

you'd probably have more than one unit on your roof.

你可能會在屋頂裝上好幾個。

它可以裝置在屋頂、後院或其他地方。

It could be on your roof, your backyard, or somewhere else.

你不需要有足夠的套件來供給整個房子的用電量，

You don't have to have enough units to power your entire house,

每裝置一具就可以讓你省下一些電費。

you just save money with each incremental one you add.

So you're still using the grid potentially,

所以即使你有了這個發電機具，你仍然需要使用傳統的電網系統，

in this type of application, to be your backup supply --

這可以作為備用電源，但是你沒辦法在夜間使用，

of course, you can't use these at night, and you can't use these on cloudy days.

你也沒辦法在陰天使用。

但是這可以減少你的用電量，尤其在尖峰時刻 --

But by reducing your energy use, pretty much at the peak times --

usually when you have your air conditioning on,

通常是你在吹著冷氣的時候，或其他類似的時候 --

or other times like that --

這可以在用電尖峰時提供你尖峰用電的電源，

this generates the peak power at the peak usage time,

so it's very complementary in that sense.

所以它可以用這種概念來作為補充性電源。

This is how we would envision a residential application.

這是我們預期運用在一般住宅的方式。

我們將它用於能源農場也有很大的潛力，

We also think there's very big potential for energy farms,

尤其是用在有很充沛陽光的偏遠地區。

especially in remote land where there happens to be a lot of sun.

把這兩種因素結合在一起真的很棒。

It's a really good combination of those two factors.

很明顯的，世界上有很多地方有強烈的陽光照射，

It turns out there's a lot of powerful sun all around the world, obviously,

但是在某些特別的地方放置這些太陽能發電機的費用相對便宜，

but in special places

where it happens to be relatively inexpensive to place these

當然，在某些地方則較有利於使用風力發電。

and also in many more places where there is high wind power.

So an example of that is, here's the map of the United States.

舉例來說，這是美國的地圖，

Pretty much everywhere that's not green or blue is a really ideal place,

只要不是綠色或藍色的地方都是很理想的區域，

but even the green or blue areas are good,

即使是綠色或藍色的區域也很好，

just not as good as the places that are red, orange and yellow.

只是不像紅色、橘色和黃色那麼棒。

但在拉斯維加斯和死亡谷附近的熱點

But the hot spot right around Las Vegas and Death Valley is very good.

則是非常非常棒的。

And is only affects the payback period,

這深深影響著回收需要的時間，

it doesn't mean that you couldn't use solar energy;

這不是指你不能用太陽能，

you could use it anywhere on Earth.

你可以在地球上任何地方使用太陽能。

It just affects the payback period

只是相對於電網使用，這會影響到你回收需要的時間，

if you're comparing to grid-supplied electricity.

但是如果你沒有電網系統供電，

But if you don't have grid-supplied electricity,

那麼回收就變成另一個不同的問題了。

then the question of payback is a different one entirely.

那只是每花一塊錢可以獲得的瓦數是多少，

It's just how many watts do you get per dollar,

以及改用這種電力供應方式之後

and how could you benefit from that to change your life in some way.

你可以在生活中可以獲得哪些好處。

這是美國地圖，

This is the map of the whole Earth,

這是整個地球的地圖，

and you can see a huge swathe in the middle

你可以看見中間巨大的長條區域，

where a large part of the population is,

那是人口最密集的區域，

there's tremendous chances for solar energy.

使用太陽能後將會有很驚人的改變。

And of course, look at Africa.

當然，例如非洲，

The potential to take advantage of solar energy there is unbelievable,

在這兒利用太陽能的潛力是相當不可思議的，

能夠找到更多這類型的方式去使用它讓我感到很興奮。

and I'm really excited to talk more about finding ways we can help with that.

所以，在最後，我想告訴大家，

So, in conclusion, I would say my journey has shown me

我的經歷告訴我，你可以用新的思維去重新檢視舊的想法，

that you can revisit old ideas in a new light,

and sometimes ideas that have been discarded in the past

過去那些曾經被拋棄的點子，

can be practical now if you apply some new technology or new twists.

你可以利用新的科技或技巧去讓它實現。

我們相信我們已經很接近讓它實用化並且低價化。

We believe we're getting very close to something practical and affordable.

我們的短期目標是要讓它的售價低於太陽能電池的一半，

Our short-term goal for this is to be half the price of solar cells

而長期目標則是希望能讓回收期小於五年，

and our longer-term goal is to be less than a five-year payback.

And at less than a five-year payback, this becomes very economic.

只要回收期能小於五年，這就很有經濟價值。

你不會只為了要節能

So you don't have to just have a feel-good attitude about energy

to want to have one of these.

才去夠買這東西。

It just makes economic sense.

購買因素將只是為了省錢。

Right now, solar paybacks are between 30 and 50 years.

現在太陽能的回收期大概是三十到五十年。

If you get it down below five years,

如果能夠降低到五年內，那麼它會變成很簡單的概念，

then it's almost a no-brainer because the interest to own it --

因為想要去擁有它 --某人會因為它而付你錢，

someone else will finance it for you and you can just make money from day one.

你可以用它來賺錢，基本上是從擁有它的第一天開始。

而我們最重要的目標是，我們希望將它推入企業內。

So that's our real powerful goal

that we're really shooting for in the company.

還有另外兩件令我震驚的事 --

Two other things that I learned that were very surprising to me --

第一是，我們對於能源使用有多麼隨便。

one was how casual we are about energy.

我剛剛從電梯那兒走過來時，

I was walking from the elevator over here,

and even just looking at the stage right now --

甚至是看看現在講台這邊 --

so there's probably 20,500-watt lights right now.

現在這裡大概有20盞500瓦的燈，

There's 10,000 watts of light pouring on the stage,

大約十萬瓦的光線照射在講台上，

one horsepower is 746 watts, at full power.

一匹馬力是756瓦，以全功率計算。

So there's basically 15 horses running at full speed just to keep the stage lit.

所以基本上有15匹馬正在全力奔跑著才能讓講台亮著。

更不用提可能有200匹正在奔跑著，

Not to mention the 200 horses that are probably running right now

以維持空調持續運轉。

to keep the air-conditioning going.

更驚訝的是，走進電梯時，電梯裡有一盞燈正亮著。

And it's just amazing,

walk in the elevator, and there's lights on in the elevator.

當然，我很在意家裡忘了隨手關燈這種事。

Of course, now I'm very sensitive at home when we leave the lights on by mistake.

但是，在生活周遭，我們總是很貪婪的使用著能源，

But, everywhere around us we have insatiable use for energy

因為它太便宜了。

because it's so cheap.

它很便宜，因為我們受惠於一種

And it's cheap because we've been subsidized by energy

由太陽光所聚集而成的能源。

that's been concentrated by the sun.

基本上，原油是太陽能的濃縮物。

Basically, oil is solar-energy concentrate.

那是經歷了上億年能量的累積

It's been pounded for a billion years with a lot of energy

to make it have all that energy contained in it.

才讓它有著目前所蘊藏能源。

And we don't have a birthright

我認為我們沒有與生俱來的權利那麼快速的去用光它。

to just use that up as fast as we are, I think.

最好的辦法是，如果我們能夠找到方法讓能源能夠再生使用，

And it would be great if we could make our energy usage renewable,

where as we're using the energy, we're creating it at the same pace,

在我們消耗能源的同時，以相同的速度製造出等量的能源，

我很希望我們能夠做到這一點。

and I really hope we can get there.

謝謝大家，你們是好聽眾。

Thank you very much, you've been a great audience.

(掌聲)