12 Predictions for the Future of Technology | Vinod Khosla | TED

翻译人员: Yip Yan Yeung 校对人员: suya f.

I'm a techno-optimist,

我是一个技术乐观主义者，

but techno-optimism should be practiced with both empathy and care.

但是技术乐观主义 应该伴以同理心和关怀。

And I’m a believer in what is possible if you do it that way.

我坚信只要这么做了， 一切皆有可能。

First, I'm going to give you a word of warning.

首先，我要警告大家一句。

Experts extrapolate the past.

专家推断过去。

They prevent radical progress because they don't think nonlinearly.

他们会避免激进的发展， 因为他们不会以非线性的思维思考。

They don't think of the improbable.

他们不会考虑不可能的事。

I personally believe only the improbables are important.

我个人认为只有 不可能的事情才是重要的。

We just don't know which improbable is important.

我们只是不知道 哪件不可能的事是重要的。

Entrepreneurs, on the other hand, with a passion for a vision,

另一方面，创业者对愿景充满热忱，

they dream the dreams, and then are foolish enough,

他们心怀梦想，也够蠢，

and we need more foolishness,

但我们需要更多的愚蠢，

to try and make those implausible dreams come true.

才能努力使那些不现实的梦想成真。

That's what entrepreneurship is about, something I've loved my whole life.

这就是创业的意义所在， 也是我的一生所爱。

In the 40 years, I’ve been doing innovation and innovation only.

在过去的 40 年中， 我一直在创新，也只在创新。

This may surprise people.

这可能会让人们感到惊讶。

I can't think of a single large social impact change

我想不出任何一个 重大的社会影响变化

that was driven by an expert in the field,

是由领域专家推动的，

possibly with the exception of biotechnology,

也许生物科技是个例外，

that's driven by an expert, by a large institution,

它是由专家、大型机构、

a large non-founder-led company.

非创始人领导的大型公司推动的。

Think about it. In 40 years, not one example.

想想看，40 年来， 一个例子都没有。

Whether you look at SpaceX, or electric cars or Uber,

无论是 SpaceX、 电动汽车还是 Uber，

not one example.

一个例子都没有。

The earliest one I could think of was credit cards in the early 70s,

我能想到的最早的例子 是 70 年代早期的信用卡，

when Bank of America put credit on plastic.

当时美国银行把“信用” 放在了塑料卡片上。

So what is this plausible world?

一个可能会出现的世界 是什么样的呢？

I'll go through a dozen scenarios

我将介绍一些场景，

that I believe most experts will pooh-pooh.

我相信很多专家都对此嗤之以鼻。

Most expertise enabled by AI will be free.

大多数由 AI 提供的专业知识 都将是免费的。

I'm most excited

最令我兴奋的是， 地球上的每个人

that every human being on the planet

can have, 24/7, a free doctor,

都能全天候获得一位免费的医生，

primary care in a very expansive way.

非常广泛地获取初级治疗。

That every child can have a free tutor

每一个孩子都能获得一位免费的老师，

in a very available, accessible way,

随时可用、人人可用，

and these will be near free.

而它将几乎是免费的。

It doesn't matter, other expertise

无所谓，其他专业技能，

whether you're looking at structural engineers or oncologists,

无论是结构工程师还是肿瘤学家，

most expertise will be near free.

大多数专业知识都几乎会是免费的。

The cost of computing.

计算成本。

Most labor will also be free.

大多数劳动力也将是免费的。

I can imagine a billion bipedal robots

我可以想象，十亿台双足机器人

doing more work than all of human labor does today,

所做的工作量 比现在所有的人类劳动还要多，

freeing humans from the servitude of some of the jobs.

将人类从一些工作的奴役中解放出来。

Working at General Motors on an assembly line for eight hours a day,

每天在通用汽车公司的 流水线上工作八个小时，

doing the same thing for 30 years.

日复一日 30 年。

That's not a job. That's almost slavery.

这都不是份工作。 几乎就是奴役。

I do believe we will have enough abundance

我相信我们会有足够富余的空间

to take care of everybody who is displaced.

留给那些工作内容不合适的人们。

And that's where the empathy part of techno-optimism comes in.

这就是技术乐观主义中的 同理心的用武之地。

We will have enough for redistribution to happen.

我们将有足够的资源进行再分配。

Programming will be near free also.

编程也几乎会是免费的。

And though we think of computers as pervasive today,

尽管我们认为计算机 如今无处不在，

I think they'll be much more prevalent,

但我认为它们会更加普遍、

much more pervasive and expansive.

更无处不在、更广泛。

In fact, I think we will think of computers almost like a utility.

我觉得我们都差不多会把计算机 当作水电煤这样的公共服务。

How many of you think about electricity?

有多少人想到了电力？

That's how it will be in the background, not in our face.

它们就这样隐藏在背后， 而不是在我们眼前。

And like this little Rabbit device I have in my hand, we'll just talk to it.

就像我手中这台 小小的 Rabbit 设备，

我们直接与其对话。

It'll understand human instruction.

它能理解人类的指令。

Computers will adapt to humans.

计算机将适应人类。

We won't have to have humans learn computer.

我们不必让人类学习计算机。

Five years ago, when I first spoke at a conference in Toronto

五年前，当我在多伦多的一场会议上

on the role AI will play in music generation,

首次谈到 AI 将在音乐生成领域 起到什么作用时，

I was met with skepticism.

我受到了质疑。

In fact, derision.

其实是嘲笑。

Whether it's AI alone or AI plus humans,

无论是单凭 AI 还是 AI 加上人类，

the level of creativity in entertainment and design will dramatically go up.

娱乐和设计领域的创造力水平 都将大大提高。

The level of diversity of these things will go up dramatically.

这些领域的多样性水平 也将急剧上升。

I'm excited about that.

我对此感到兴奋。

Surprisingly, internet access will mostly be by agents.

令人意外的是， 上网将大部分由智能体代劳。

Billions of agents running around doing things for us humans.

上亿智能体奔波为人类做事。

Medicine is my other favorite.

医学是我最喜欢的另一个领域。

We have pretty good medicine today,

如今，我们有相当不错的药物，

but we have the practice of medicine,

但我们有医学实践，

and it will change to the science of medicine.

它将转为医学。

It will change from what is mostly sick care today,

它将改变现在主流的“疾病治疗”，

we apply medicine when people are sick,

即我们在人们患病时使用药物，

to health care to prevent sickness.

转变为“疾病预防”的医疗保健。

It's a shame that in this day and age,

遗憾的是，在当今这个时代，

most people who get a heart attack discover they have cardiac disease

大多数心脏病发作的患者 发现自己有心脏疾病

by having a heart attack,

就是心脏病发作的时候，

not 20 years earlier when that disease started.

而不是早在 20 年前 患上这种疾病的时候。

That won't happen.

不可能的。

Food.

食物。

We will have new types of proteins, which we need,

我们将有我们需要的新型蛋白质

and new kinds of fertilizer essential to agriculture.

和农业必需的新型肥料。

RuBisCO is the most prevalent protein on the planet.

核酮糖-1,5-二磷酸羧化酶（RuBisCO） 是地球上最常见的蛋白质。

Every place you see green, there is RuBisCO behind that chlorophyll,

你看到的每一处绿色， 叶绿素都有 RuBisCO，

or almost everywhere.

也就是几乎到处都有 RuBisCO。

There's a few exceptions.

有一些例外。

And we will have much more environmentally better proteins

我们将拥有对环境更友好的蛋白质，

than either plant proteins,

比任何植物蛋白都友好，

and possibly better than corn and soy.

可能比玉米和大豆更好。

So I'm excited about that, and greener fertilizer.

所以我对此感到兴奋， 还有更环保的肥料。

Oh, my favorite.

哦，我的最爱。

Experts completely disagree with me when I say this.

专家们完全不同意我的这种说法。

We can, in the next 25 years,

在接下来的 25 年中，我们可以

replace most cars in most cities.

替换掉大多数城市的大多数汽车。

Why? By making transit faster than a chauffeured car,

为什么？通过使交通 比驾驶员驾驶的汽车更快，

cheaper than a public transit system

比公共交通系统更便宜，

and pervasive, any time on demand.

并且可以随时按需使用。

And yes, we can do it.

是的，我们可以做到。

In fact, we are building the first one of these public transit systems

我们现在就在圣何塞建造 第一个这样的公共交通系统。

in San Jose today.

Another one of these, flying at almost 4000 mph.

还有另一个，以将近 4000 英里/小时的速度飞行。

We will be able to fly from New York to London for lunch.

我们可以从纽约飞往伦敦吃午饭。

It will make the world a much closer place.

它将使世界变得更加紧密。

And we fret a lot about power,

我们对能源非常担忧，

and we think solar and wind are the solution.

我们认为太阳能和风能 会是解决方案。

They're great solutions

它们是我在过去 20 年中 一直倡导的绝佳解决方案。

I've been advocating for the last 20 years.

But fusion power will replace most coal and natural gas power plants today.

但是核聚变能源将取代 如今大多数煤炭和天然气发电厂。

Again, people say we can't build that many.

还有人说我们建不了那么多。

We can if we are smart, if we just replace their boilers,

如果我们聪明， 只要我们更换锅炉，

or maybe the boilers and their turbines.

更换锅炉和涡轮机， 我们就能做到。

In fact, all those plants will probably be retrofitted with fusion,

这些发电厂也许都会 被核聚变更新换代，

possibly with superhot geothermal,

可能会使用超热地热，

not the kind of geothermal you've heard about,

不是那种你听说过的地热，

even heard about at TED.

TED 上提到过的地热。

But much hotter, better, more efficient geothermal.

而是更热、更好、更高效的地热。

Doomers say we don't have enough resources like lithium and copper.

消极主义者说我们没有 足够的资源，比如锂和铜。

In fact, I say we haven't started to look.

我得说我们还没有开始研究。

In fact, we haven't started to develop the technologies

我们还没有开始开发

that will let us look a kilometer below the surface.

能让我们看到地表以下一公里的技术。

We are well on our way, though.

但是，我们已经走上了正轨。

There will be carbon solutions for everything.

一切都将有碳解决方案。

Entrepreneurs are working on this.

创业人士正在研究这个问题。

There's only a dozen major emitter categories,

只有十几个主要的排放物类别，

and I wrote a blog on it about two years ago.

大约两年前， 我写了一篇关于这点的博客。

And it only takes one entrepreneur to tackle each of these categories,

每个类别只需要一个创业者来解决，

so a dozen instigators can change the world of climate.

因此，十几簇星星之火 就能改变气候的世界。

In fact, we inaugurated last week

我们上周在加利福尼亚 落成了第一家水泥厂，

the first cement plant in California

which from the same amount of limestone produces twice the amount of cement

使用等量的石灰石 可以产出两倍的水泥，

by capturing the carbon dioxide and putting it into product.

通过捕获二氧化碳 并将其放入产品。

You repurpose existing plants,

你可以重新利用现有发电厂，

upgrade them like you would coal plants and natural gas plants,

像升级燃煤电厂 和天然气发电厂一样升级它们，

and you increase the level of product

在降低每吨成本的同时 提高产品水平。

while decreasing the cost per ton.

That's what makes these things scalable.

正是如此 可以让这些生意扩大规模。

All we need is a few entrepreneurs

我们需要的只是一些创业者，

who will imagine the impossible, dream the dreams,

他们想象不可能的事情，畅想梦想，

and then be foolish enough to make them come true.

足够愚蠢，让梦想成真。

There's lots of reasons this won't happen, but I won't delve into them.

无法成真的原因很多， 但我不会详谈。

But I do think a really abundant world is possible.

但我确实认为 一个非常丰富的世界是可能的。

It only takes a few motivated,

只需要一些胸怀大志、

impassioned entrepreneurs to make it happen.

充满激情的创业者就能让它实现。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）