12 Predictions for the Future of Technology | Vinod Khosla | TED

譯者: C Leung 審譯者: 麗玲 辛

I'm a techno-optimist,

我是科技樂觀主義者，

but techno-optimism should be practiced with both empathy and care.

但實踐科技樂觀主義， 應該要帶著同理心和關懷。

And I’m a believer in what is possible if you do it that way.

而我相信這樣做， 一切都變得可能。

First, I'm going to give you a word of warning.

首先，我要給大家一個警告。 專家是根據過去作推斷。

Experts extrapolate the past.

They prevent radical progress because they don't think nonlinearly.

他們會避免過激的發展步伐，

因為他們不會以非線性思考。

They don't think of the improbable.

他們不會考慮不大可能的事。

I personally believe only the improbables are important.

我個人相信，只有 不大可能的事才是重要的。

We just don't know which improbable is important.

我們只是不知道， 有哪些不大可能的事才是重要。

Entrepreneurs, on the other hand, with a passion for a vision,

另一方面，創業家對願景有熱忱，

they dream the dreams, and then are foolish enough,

他們敢於夢想，也夠蠢，

and we need more foolishness,

我們需要更多愚蠢的人，

to try and make those implausible dreams come true.

去試著實現那些難以置信的夢想。

That's what entrepreneurship is about, something I've loved my whole life.

那就是企業家精神， 也是我一生的熱愛。

In the 40 years, I’ve been doing innovation and innovation only.

四十年來， 我只在不斷的創新。

This may surprise people.

這可能很讓人驚訝。

I can't think of a single large social impact change

我想不出有任何一個 重大社會影響的變革

that was driven by an expert in the field,

是由領域專家所推動，

possibly with the exception of biotechnology,

生物科技可能是個例外，

that's driven by an expert, by a large institution,

因為是由專家、大型機構、

a large non-founder-led company.

非創始人領導的大型公司所推動。

Think about it. In 40 years, not one example.

想想看，四十年來，一個例子都沒有。

Whether you look at SpaceX, or electric cars or Uber,

看看 SpaceX、 電動車、還是優步，

無一例外。

not one example.

The earliest one I could think of was credit cards in the early 70s,

我能想到最早的例子 是 70 年代初的信用卡，

when Bank of America put credit on plastic.

那時美國銀行 以塑膠卡片代表個人信用。

So what is this plausible world?

那麼，可能出現的新世界會是怎樣的？

I'll go through a dozen scenarios

我會提出許多可能性，

相信大多數專家 會對它們都嗤之以鼻。

that I believe most experts will pooh-pooh.

Most expertise enabled by AI will be free.

大部分由人工智慧提供的 專門知識都將會免費。

I'm most excited

最讓我興奮的

that every human being on the planet

就是地球上每個人

can have, 24/7, a free doctor,

全天候不分晝夜， 都能找到免費的醫生，

primary care in a very expansive way.

廣泛地獲得基礎照護。

That every child can have a free tutor

每個孩子都能有免費及個別的家教，

in a very available, accessible way,

隨時隨地都能接觸到，

and these will be near free.

而且幾乎免費。

It doesn't matter, other expertise

無論你需要什麼專門知識， 例如，結構工程學或腫瘤學，

whether you're looking at structural engineers or oncologists,

most expertise will be near free.

都幾乎會是免費。

The cost of computing.

運算成本。

Most labor will also be free.

大多數勞動力也將是免費的。

I can imagine a billion bipedal robots

我可以想像十億個雙足機器人

doing more work than all of human labor does today,

所做的工作量比 現今所有人類勞動力更多，

freeing humans from the servitude of some of the jobs.

從而使人類擺脫某些工作束縛。

Working at General Motors on an assembly line for eight hours a day,

每天在通用汽車公司 生產線工作八小時，

doing the same thing for 30 years.

日復一日做 30 年，

That's not a job. That's almost slavery.

那不是工作，幾乎是奴役。

I do believe we will have enough abundance

我確信我們會有足夠資源

to take care of everybody who is displaced.

來照顧每一位離職的人。

And that's where the empathy part of techno-optimism comes in.

這就是科技樂觀主義者 發揮同理心的地方。

We will have enough for redistribution to happen.

我們將有足夠資源去重新分配。

Programming will be near free also.

編程也幾乎會是免費。

And though we think of computers as pervasive today,

儘管我們今天認為電腦十分普及，

I think they'll be much more prevalent,

但我認為它們將會更流行，

much more pervasive and expansive.

更廣泛和普遍。

In fact, I think we will think of computers almost like a utility.

事實上，我認為我們 會將電腦視為公用事業。

How many of you think about electricity?

在座有多少人想到電力？

That's how it will be in the background, not in our face.

電腦將會在背景運作， 不會在我們面前。

And like this little Rabbit device I have in my hand, we'll just talk to it.

就像我手裡這個小小的 rabbit 裝置， 我們只需跟它說話，

It'll understand human instruction.

它就會理解人類指示。

Computers will adapt to humans.

電腦會適應人類。

We won't have to have humans learn computer.

我們不必再讓人類學習電腦。

Five years ago, when I first spoke at a conference in Toronto

五年前，我在多倫多的一個會議上，

on the role AI will play in music generation,

首次談論 AI 在音樂生成中 扮演的角色時，

I was met with skepticism.

我遭遇不少質疑。

In fact, derision.

其實，那是嘲笑。

Whether it's AI alone or AI plus humans,

無論是單憑 AI， 還是 AI 加上人類，

the level of creativity in entertainment and design will dramatically go up.

娛樂和設計的創造力 都會大幅提高。

The level of diversity of these things will go up dramatically.

這些方面的多元水平將大幅上升。

I'm excited about that.

我對此感到興奮。

Surprisingly, internet access will mostly be by agents.

意外的是，存取互聯網 將主要由智慧型代理人進行。

Billions of agents running around doing things for us humans.

數十億個代理人來回奔波 為我們人類做事。

Medicine is my other favorite.

我另一個最愛是醫學。

We have pretty good medicine today,

我們現今有很好的藥物，

but we have the practice of medicine,

但我們實踐在疾病冶療，

and it will change to the science of medicine.

而它將轉變為醫療科學。

It will change from what is mostly sick care today,

它將從現今主流的疾病照護，

we apply medicine when people are sick,

即從人們生病時使用藥物，

to health care to prevent sickness.

改變為疾病預防的健康照護。

It's a shame that in this day and age,

遺憾的是，在現今世代，

most people who get a heart attack discover they have cardiac disease

大多數心臟病患者， 是因心臟病發才發現自己患病，

by having a heart attack,

而不是早在 20 年前 疾病開始時發現的。

not 20 years earlier when that disease started.

That won't happen.

那將不會發生。

Food.

食物。

We will have new types of proteins, which we need,

我們將有我們需要的新型蛋白質，

and new kinds of fertilizer essential to agriculture.

以及農業必需的新型肥料。

RuBisCO is the most prevalent protein on the planet.

加氧酶 (RuBisCO) 是 地球上最常見的蛋白質。

Every place you see green, there is RuBisCO behind that chlorophyll,

每個你看到綠色的地方， 那些葉綠素背後都有加氧酶，

or almost everywhere.

幾乎無處不在。

There's a few exceptions.

只有一些例外。

And we will have much more environmentally better proteins

我們將擁有更符合環保的蛋白質，

than either plant proteins,

比植物蛋白更好，

and possibly better than corn and soy.

可能比玉米和大豆的更好。

So I'm excited about that, and greener fertilizer.

我對此和更環保的肥料感到興奮。

Oh, my favorite.

啊，我的最愛。

Experts completely disagree with me when I say this.

當我提出時，專家完全不同意。

We can, in the next 25 years,

在未來 25 年，我們可以

replace most cars in most cities.

替換在大多數城市的大多數汽車。

Why? By making transit faster than a chauffeured car,

為什麼？靠著比私人司機開的車更快，

cheaper than a public transit system

比公共交通系統更便宜，

and pervasive, any time on demand.

普及且任何時間隨叫隨到的 個人自主交通工具。

And yes, we can do it.

是的，我們可以做到。

In fact, we are building the first one of these public transit systems

事實上，我們現正於聖荷西 建造首個這樣的公共交通系統。

in San Jose today.

Another one of these, flying at almost 4000 mph.

另一種，以每小時 近 4000 英里的速度飛行。

We will be able to fly from New York to London for lunch.

我們將能夠從紐約 飛到倫敦，享用午餐。

It will make the world a much closer place.

這將使世界變得更靠近。

And we fret a lot about power,

我們對能源十分苦惱，

and we think solar and wind are the solution.

並認為太陽能和風能是解決方案。

They're great solutions

它們是我過去 20 年來

I've been advocating for the last 20 years.

一直在倡導的絕佳解決方案。

But fusion power will replace most coal and natural gas power plants today.

但是，核融合能源將取代 當今大多數煤和天然氣發電廠。

Again, people say we can't build that many.

同樣地，有人說我們 做不到蓋那麼多電廠。

We can if we are smart, if we just replace their boilers,

如果夠聰明，我們就做得到， 只要更換其中的鍋爐，

or maybe the boilers and their turbines.

或許鍋爐和渦輪機。

In fact, all those plants will probably be retrofitted with fusion,

事實上，這些發電廠 可能會改裝成能夠進行核融合，

possibly with superhot geothermal,

可能是用超熱的地熱，

not the kind of geothermal you've heard about,

不是你聽說過的地熱，

even heard about at TED.

或在 TED 提到的。

But much hotter, better, more efficient geothermal.

而是種更熱，更好，更高效的地熱。

Doomers say we don't have enough resources like lithium and copper.

悲觀主義者說， 我們沒有足夠資源，例如鋰和銅。

In fact, I say we haven't started to look.

事實上，我要說我們還沒開始研究，

In fact, we haven't started to develop the technologies

還沒開始開發能讓我們看到 地表下一公里的技術。

that will let us look a kilometer below the surface.

We are well on our way, though.

不過，我們已經走上正軌。

There will be carbon solutions for everything.

一切都會有碳排放的解決方案。

Entrepreneurs are working on this.

創業家正在努力研究。

There's only a dozen major emitter categories,

只有十多個主要排放類別，

and I wrote a blog on it about two years ago.

大約兩年前，我就為此寫了一個博客。

And it only takes one entrepreneur to tackle each of these categories,

而每個類別只需一位創業家就能解決，

so a dozen instigators can change the world of climate.

因此十多個先行者身體力行， 就能改變氣候世界。

In fact, we inaugurated last week

我們上週

the first cement plant in California

在加利福尼亞開設了首家水泥廠，

which from the same amount of limestone produces twice the amount of cement

該水泥廠由相同量的石灰石， 就產出兩倍的水泥量，

by capturing the carbon dioxide and putting it into product.

方法是抓取二氧化碳 並將其放入產品中。

You repurpose existing plants,

你可以重新改造現有的工廠，

upgrade them like you would coal plants and natural gas plants,

像升級煤電廠、天然氣廠 一樣地升級它們，

and you increase the level of product

提高產品水平，

while decreasing the cost per ton.

並同時降低每噸成本。

That's what makes these things scalable.

這就是它們能擴展的原因。

All we need is a few entrepreneurs

我們只需要小部分創業家，

who will imagine the impossible, dream the dreams,

他們會想像不可能的事情， 天馬行空去夢想，

and then be foolish enough to make them come true.

然後够愚蠢去令它們成真。

There's lots of reasons this won't happen, but I won't delve into them.

夢想未成真的原因很多， 但我不會詳談。

But I do think a really abundant world is possible.

但我確實認為 真正豐盛的世界是未來可期的。

It only takes a few motivated,

只需要一些積極主動

impassioned entrepreneurs to make it happen.

且充滿激情的創業家， 就能實現這一切。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）