Why we need to imagine different futures | Anab Jain

翻译人员: Lin Zhang 校对人员: Yanyan Hong

I visit the future for a living.

我靠访问未来为生，

Not just one future,

不只是一个未来，

but many possible futures,

而是许多可能存在的未来，

bringing back evidences from those futures for you to experience today.

为了让今天的你来体验 这些来自未来的生活。

Like an archaeologist of the future.

就像未来的考古学家一样。

Over the years, my many journeys have brought back things

多年来，我从我的旅程中 带回了许多东西，

like a new species of synthetically engineered bees;

比如一种经过人工合成的蜜蜂新品种；

a book named, "Pets as Protein;"

一本名为《如同蛋白质的宠物》的书；

a machine that makes you rich by trading your genetic data;

一种通过交换基因数据 使你变得富有的机器；

a lamp powered by sugar;

一盏由糖供能的灯；

a computer for growing food.

一台能生长粮食的电脑。

OK, so I don't actually travel to different futures -- yet.

好吧，我其实还没有去过不同的未来。

But my husband Jon and I spend a lot of time thinking

但我的丈夫乔恩与我 花了很多时间思考，

and creating visions of different futures in our studio.

并在我们的工作室里 创造来自不同未来的景象，

We are constantly looking out for weak signals,

我们一直在寻找微弱的信号，

those murmurs of future potential.

那些由未来可能性发出的杂音。

Then we trace those threads of potential out into the future, asking:

接着我们从这些潜在的线索 追踪到未来，然后发问：

What might it feel like to live in this future?

在这样的未来生活会是种什么感觉？

What might we see, hear and even breathe?

我们能看到什么， 听到什么，甚至呼吸着什么？

Then we run experiments, build prototypes, make objects,

然后我们进行实验， 建立原型，制造物体，

bringing aspects of these futures to life,

将这些未来的景象带入生活，

making them concrete and tangible

使他们变得具体而有形，

so you can really feel the impact of those future possibilities

从而能让你在此时此地真切感受到

here and now.

潜在未来所带来的影响。

But this work is not about predictions.

但这项工作并不是为了预测，

It's about creating tools --

而是为了创造一些工具——

tools that can help connect our present and our future selves

一些能帮助我们 连接现在与未来的工具，

so we become active participants in creating a future we want --

让我们成为积极的参与者， 创造一个我们想要的未来——

a future that works for all.

一个适合所有人的未来。

So how do we go about doing this?

那么我们该怎么做?

For a recent project called Drone Aviary,

最近有一个名叫鸟笼无人机 （Drone Aviary）的项目，

we were interested in exploring

我们非常有兴趣去探究

what it would mean to live with drones in our cities.

在我们的城市中 与无人机生活意味着什么？

Drones that have the power to see things we can't,

无人机能看到我们不能看到的事情，

to go places we can't

去我们不能去的地方，

and to do so with increasing autonomy.

并且随着自控能力的增强 而主动这么做。

But to understand the technology,

但想要了解这种技术，

getting our hands dirty was crucial.

亲力亲为是至关重要的。

So we built several different drones in our studio.

于是我们在工作室里 制作了不同的无人机。

We gave them names, functions and then flew them --

我们给了它们起了名字， 定义了功能，然后让它们起飞——

but not without difficulty.

但这并不简单。

Things came loose,

零件开始松动，

GPS signals glitched

GPS信号发生故障，

and drones crashed.

接着一些无人机坠毁了。

But it was through such experimentation

但正是通过这样的实验，

that we could construct a very concrete and very experiential slice

我们才可以构建一个 非常具体，非常有经验性的

of one possible future.

潜在未来的一个片段。

So now, let's go to that future.

那么，让我们来看看这个未来，

Let's imagine we are living in a city with drones like this one.

让我们想象一下我们生活 在一个拥有这样的无人机的城市。

We call it The Nightwatchman.

我们把它叫做“守夜人” （The Nightwatchman），

It patrols the streets, often spotted in the evenings and at night.

它在街上巡逻， 经常在傍晚与午夜出没。

Initially, many of us were annoyed by its low, dull hum.

最初，许多人都为它产生的 低沉、沉闷的嗡嗡声所困扰。

But then, like everything else, we got used to it.

但随后，就像其他东西一样， 我们渐渐习惯了。

Now, what if you could see the world through its eyes?

如果你能透过 它的眼睛看到这个世界呢？

See how it constantly logs every resident of our neighborhood;

看看它是如何不断地记录 我们周围的每一个居民区；

logging the kids who play football in the no-ballgame area

记录着在无球区打橄榄球的孩子们，

and marking them as statutory nuisances.

并将他们标记为法定的“妨害”。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And then see how it disperses this other group, who are teenagers,

然后看看它是如何 自主地下达威胁禁令，

驱散这个青少年群体。

with the threat of an autonomously issued injunction.

And then there's this giant floating disc called Madison.

还有一个叫做麦迪逊 （Madison）的巨大漂浮圆盘，

Its glaring presence is so overpowering,

它耀眼的存在是如此的强烈，

I can't help but stare at it.

我忍不住盯着它看。

But if feels like each time I look at it,

但是每次我看着它的时候，

it knows a little more about me --

就感觉它更加了解我了——

like it keeps flashing all these Brianair adverts at me,

就像它不停地对我闪烁着 这些飞行（Brianair）广告，

as if it knows about the holiday I'm planning.

就好像它知道我正在计划着假期。

I'm not sure if I find this mildly entertaining

我不确定这是否算是 适度地带有娱乐性的行为，

or just entirely invasive.

或只是具有侵略性的行为。

Back to the present.

回到现在，

In creating this future, we learned a lot.

在创造这个未来的时候,， 我们学到了很多，

Not just about how these machines work,

不只是这些机器如何运作，

but what it would feel like to live alongside them.

而且与他们一起生活 是一种怎么样的感觉。

Whilst drones like Madison and Nightwatchman,

同时像是麦迪逊（Madison） 或者守夜人（ Nightwatchman），

in these particular forms,

还未以这种形式

are not real yet,

存在的时候，

most elements of a drone future are in fact very real today.

大多无人机的构成原理 在现今都十分真实。

For instance,

比如，

facial recognition systems are everywhere --

无处不在的面部识别系统——

in our phones, even in our thermostats

在我们的手机，甚至调温器里，

and in cameras around our cities --

还存在于城市里 随处可见的摄像头里——

keeping a record of everything we do,

都记录下了我们所做的每一件事，

whether it's an advertisement we glanced at or a protest we attended.

无论是我们随处一瞥的广告 还是参加的抗议活动。

These things are here,

它们无处不在，

and we often don't understand how they work,

而且我们时常不清楚 他们是如何工作的，

and what their consequences could be.

以及它们所带来的后果。

And we see this all around us.

它们无处不在。

This difficulty in even imagining

很难想象

how the consequences of our actions today will affect our future.

我们今天行动的后果 将如何影响我们的未来。

Last year, where I live, in the UK, there was a referendum

去年，我住在英国的时候， 那里举行了一次全民公投，

where the people could vote for the UK to leave the EU

那里的人们可以投票 支持英国脱离欧盟，

或者留在欧盟，

or stay in the EU,

popularly known as "Brexit."

俗称“英国脱欧”（Brexit）。

And soon after the results came out,

结果出来后不久，

a word began to surface called "Bregret" --

一个单词开始出现， 叫做“英悔退欧”（Bregret）——

(Laughter)

（笑声）

describing people who chose to vote for Brexit as a protest,

形容那些用抗议来选择投票脱欧，

but without thinking through its potential consequences.

但却不考虑它的潜在后果的人。

And this disconnect is evident in some of the simplest things.

这种疏离在一些最简单的 事情上是显而易见的。

Say you go out for a quick drink.

比如你出去喝了一杯，

Then you decide you wouldn't mind a few more.

然后你决定再多喝几杯也无所谓，

You know you'll wake up in the morning feeling awful,

你明白早上醒来会觉得很糟糕，

but you justify it by saying,

但你却为自己解释，

"The other me in the future will deal with that."

“未来的另一个我会处理好的。”

But as we find out in the morning,

但是正如我们早上所发现的，

that future "you" is you.

那个未来的“你”还是你。

When I was growing up in India in the late '70s and early '80s,

当我于70年代末, 80年代初在印度长大，

there was a feeling

那时觉得

that the future both needed to and could actually be planned.

未来需要并且实际上可以被计划。

I remember my parents had to plan for some of the simplest things.

我还记得我的父母不得不 为一些最简单的事情做计划，

When they wanted a telephone in our house,

当他们想要在家里装电话时，

they needed to order it and then wait --

他们需要订购，然后等待——

wait for nearly five years before it got installed in our house.

等了将近五年才把它装好。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And then if they wanted to call my grandparents who lived in another city,

然后如果他们想给住在 另一个城市的祖父母打电话，

they needed to book something called a "trunk call,"

他们需要预订一种叫“长途电话”的东西，

然后再等上几个小时甚至几天。

and then wait again, for hours or even days.

And then abruptly, the phone would ring at two in the morning,

接着突然，电话会在凌晨2点响起，

而我们所有人都会 从床上跳起来，围着电话转，

and all of us would jump out of our beds and gather round the phone,

在凌晨两点的时候对着话筒大叫，

shrieking into it, discussing general well-being

at two in the morning.

讨论一切如何安好。

Today it can feel like things are happening too fast --

现今时常感觉事情发展得太快了——

以至于我们很难对自己的

so fast, that it can become really difficult

for us to form an understanding of our place in history.

历史地位产生深刻的理解。

It creates an overwhelming sense of uncertainty and anxiety,

它产生了一种压倒性的 不确定性与焦虑感，

and so, we let the future just happen to us.

所以，我们选择坐等着未来的到来。

We don't connect with that future "us."

我们不会把未来的“我们”联系在一起，

We treat our future selves as a stranger,

我们把未来的自己当作陌生人对待，

and the future as a foreign land.

而且把未来当作一片外国的土地。

It's not a foreign land;

但它并不是外国的土地；

it's unfolding right in front of us,

它就在我们的眼前发展着，

continually being shaped by our actions today.

不断被我们今天的行动所塑造。

We are that future,

我们即是未来，

and so I believe fighting for a future we want

所以我相信争取我们所期望的未来，

is more urgent and necessary than ever before.

是一件比以往任何时候 都更加紧迫与必要的事情。

We have learned in our work

我们在工作中学到了

that one of the most powerful means of effecting change

最有效的改变手段之一

is when people can directly, tangibly and emotionally experience

就是当人们可以直接地， 真切地与有感情地去体验

some of the future consequences of their actions today.

他们今日的行动 所带来的一些后果的时候。

Earlier this year, the government of the United Arab Emirates invited us

今年早些时候，阿联酋政府邀请我们

to help them shape their country's energy strategy

去帮助他们塑造国家的能源战略

all the way up to 2050.

直到2050年。

Based on the government's econometric data, we created this large city model,

根据政府的计量经济数据， 我们建立了这个大城市的模型，

and visualized many possible futures on it.

并设想了许多可能存在的未来，

As I was excitably taking a group of government officials

正当我兴奋地带着一群政府官员

and members of energy companies

与能源公司的成员，

through one sustainable future on our model,

通过一个在我们的模型中 可持续的未来的时候，

one of the participants told me,

其中一个参与者告诉我，

"I cannot imagine that in the future people will stop driving cars

"我无法想象未来人们会停止驾驶汽车，

and start using public transport."

并开始使用公共交通工具。”

And then he said,

然后他说，

"There's no way I can tell my own son to stop driving his car."

“我不可能告诉我的儿子让他不要开车。”

But we were prepared for this reaction.

但我们已经准备好了应对这种反应，

Working with scientists in a chemistry lab in my home city in India,

我曾在我的家乡印度的一个 化学实验室里与科学家们一起工作，

we had created approximate samples

我们已经创造了接近似的空气样本，

of what the air would be like in 2030 if our behavior stays the same.

如果我们的行为保持不变， 那么2030年的空气将会是什么样的，

And so, I walked the group over to this object

接着，我带着这个小组到这个

that emits vapor from those air samples.

从这些空气样本中释放出水汽的装置前，

Just one whiff of the noxious polluted air from 2030

只吸入了一点点 来自2030年的恶性污染的空气，

brought home the point that no amount of data can.

就清楚地展现了无法用数据表达的重点。

This is not the future you would want your children to inherit.

这不是你希望你的孩子们继承的未来。

The next day, the government made a big announcement.

次日，政府宣布了一项重大声明，

They would be investing billions of dollars in renewables.

他们将在可再生能源上投资数十亿美元，

We don't know what part our future experiences played in this decision,

我们不知道是哪些未来的体验 在这个决定中会发挥了作用，

but we know that they've changed their energy policy

但是我们知道他们为了缓和这种情况

to mitigate such a scenario.

已经改变了能源政策。

While something like air from the future is very effective and tangible,

虽然像未来的空气这样的指标 是非常有效和切实的，

the trajectory from our present to a future consequence

但从现在到未来的发展轨迹

is not always so linear.

并非是一直是线性的，

Even when a technology is developed with utopian ideals,

即使一种技术是朝着 乌托邦式的理想来发展，

the moment it leaves the laboratory and enters the world,

但在它离开实验室的 那一刻并进入世界时，

it is subject to forces outside of the creators' control.

便会受到创作者之外的力量所控制。

For one particular project, we investigated medical genomics:

对于一个特定的项目， 我们调查了医疗基因组学：

the technology of gathering and using people's genetic data

是一种收集与使用 人类基因数据的技术

to create personalized medicine.

用来创造个人化医疗。

We were asking:

我们发问：

What are some of the unintended consequences of linking our genetics

将我们的基因与医疗保健 联系起来会产生什么样的

to health care?

意想不到的后果?

To explore this question further,

再进一步探索这个问题，

we created a fictional lawsuit,

我们创造了一个虚构的诉讼案件，

and brought it to life through 31 pieces of carefully crafted evidence.

并通过31件细心制作的证据实现了它。

So we built an illegal genetic clinic,

所以我们建立了一个非法的基因诊所，

a DIY carbon dioxide incubator,

一个手工制作的二氧化碳培养箱，

and even bought frozen mice on eBay.

接着甚至在eBay上买了一只冻老鼠。

So now let's go to that future where this lawsuit is unfolding,

现在我们来看看 这个诉讼正在发生的未来，

and meet the defendant, Arnold Mann.

让我们来认识一下被告，阿诺德·曼。

Arnold is being prosecuted by this global giant biotech company

阿诺德正被这家叫做“动态遗传”的

called Dynamic Genetics,

大型跨国生物科技公司起诉。

because they have evidence

因为他们有证据证明

that Arnold has illegally inserted the company's patented genetic material

阿诺德把公司的专利 基因材料非法植入了

into his body.

他的身体。

How on earth did Arnold manage to do that?

阿诺德到底是怎么做到的？

Well, it all started

其实，这一切都是

when Arnold was asked to submit a saliva sample in this spit kit

在阿诺德被要求在这个 唾液工具箱中提交唾液样本

to the NHI --

到NHI的时候开始的——

the UK's National Health Insurance service.

即国民健康保险。

When Arnold received his health insurance bill,

当阿诺德收到他的健康保险账单时,

he was shocked and scared

他感到震惊和害怕

to see that his premiums had gone through the roof,

看到他的天价保险费,

beyond anything he or his family could ever afford.

已经远远超出了他与 他的家庭能够支付得起的限度。

The state's algorithm had scanned his genetic data

国家的演算系统扫描了他的基因数据，

and found the risk of a chronic health condition lurking in his DNA.

并发现了在他的DNA中 有潜伏慢性健康疾病的风险。

And so Arnold had to start paying toward the potential costs

所以阿诺德不得不 从今开始向未来的疾病

of that future disease --

支付潜在的预算——

potential future disease from today.

向这种未来可能存在的疾病。

In that moment of fear and panic,

在充满恐惧和恐慌的那一刻，

Arnold slipped through the city

阿诺德从城里溜了出来

into the dark shadows of this illegal clinic for treatment --

融入了这个非法诊所的黑暗阴影里——

a treatment that would modify his DNA

为了找到可以改变他DNA的治疗，

so that the state's algorithm would no longer see him as a risk,

这样一来，国家的演算系统， 就不再认为他是一个风险，

and his insurance premiums would become affordable again.

而且他也能负担得起他的保险费了。

But Arnold was caught.

但是阿诺德被抓住了。

And the legal proceedings in the case Dynamic Genetics v. Mann began.

接着他与动态遗传公司的诉讼开始了。

In bringing such a future to life,

当把这样的未来带入到生活中时，

what was important to us was that people could actually touch,

对我们来说，人们可以 触摸到，看到与感觉到

see and feel its potential,

这种可能性是很重要的。

because such an immediate and close encounter provokes people

因为这种密切相关的接触会驱使人们

to ask the right questions,

去问正确的问题，

questions like:

就像：

What are the implications of living in a world

生活在一个从基因来判断自我的

where I'm judged on my genetics?

世界意味着什么?

Or: Who might claim ownership to my genetic data,

或是谁拥有我的基因数据的所有权，

and what might they do with it?

并且他们会用它做什么？

If this feels even slightly out-there or farfetched,

如果这个感觉 有点遥远，或者是牵强，

today there's a little-known bill being passed through the American congress

实际上就在今天，美国国会 通过了一项鲜为人知的法案，

known as HR 1313, Preserving Employee Wellness Programs Act.

通称HR 1313， 员工健康保留计划法案。

This bill proposes to amend the Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act,

该法案提议修改基因信息非歧视法案，

popularly known as GINA,

俗称GINA，

and would allow employers to ask about family medical history

它并且首次允许雇主询问

所有员工的家庭病史

and genetic data

to all employees for the first time.

与遗传数据。

Those who refuse would face large penalties.

那些拒绝的人将面临巨大的惩罚，

In the work I've shown so far,

在我所展示的作品中,

whether it was drones or genetic crimes,

不管是无人机还是基因犯罪，

these stories describe troubling futures

这些故事都描述了令人不安的未来，

with the intention of helping us avoid those futures.

而目的是帮助我们避免这些未来。

But what about what we can't avoid?

但那些我们不能避免的呢？

Today, especially with climate change,

现今，尤其是气候变化问题，

it looks like we are heading for trouble.

看来我们要有麻烦了。

And so what we want to do now is to prepare for that future

所以我们现在要做的 就是为未来做准备，

by developing tools and attitudes that can help us find hope --

通过开发工具与转变态度 来帮助我们找到希望——

hope that can inspire action.

可以激起行动的希望。

Currently, we are running an experiment in our studio.

目前，我们的工作室开展了一项实验，

It's a work in progress.

这是一项正在进行中的工作。

Based on climate data projections,

基于气候数据预测，

we are exploring a future

我们正在探索那个

where the Western world has moved from abundance to scarcity.

西方世界已经从富足到匮乏的未来。

We imagine living in a future city with repeated flooding,

我们想象着生活在一个 不断遭遇洪水的未来城市里，

periods with almost no food in supermarkets,

超市里经常缺少食物，

经济不稳定，

economic instabilities,

broken supply chains.

商品供应链已经崩溃。

What can we do to not just survive, but prosper in such a world?

我们需要做的不仅仅是生存， 而是在这样的一个世界里繁荣。

What food can we eat?

我们能吃什么食物?

To really step inside these questions,

要真正介入这些问题中，

we are building this room in a flat in London from 2050.

我们在伦敦的一间公寓里 建造了这个从2050年的房间，

It's like a little time capsule that we reclaimed from the future.

这就像一个我们从未来中 回收的小型时间胶囊。

We stripped it down to the bare minimum.

我们把它的容量尽可能缩小，

Everything we lovingly put in our homes,

为了打造一个温馨的家 而布置的一切，

like flat-panel TVs,

像平板电视，

internet-connected fridges

智能冰箱，

and artisanal furnishings

和手工家具

all had to go.

都要搬走。

And in its place, we're building food computers

在它的空间里， 我们正在从废弃的、回收的

from abandoned, salvaged and repurposed materials,

和改造的材料中建造食物电脑，

turning today's waste into tomorrow's dinner.

把今天的废品变成明天的晚餐。

For instance,

比如，

we've just finished building our first fully automated fogponics machine.

我们刚刚完成了我们的 第一个全自动的雾化机。

It uses the technique of fogponics -- so just fog as a nutrient,

它使用了雾化的技术—— 只用雾作为一种养分,

not even water or soil --

甚至不用水或土壤——

to grow things quickly.

来培育粮食。

At the moment,

目前，

we have successfully grown tomatoes.

我们已经成功的种植了西红柿。

But we'll need more food than what we can grow in this small room.

但是我们需要的食物比我们 在这个小房间里能生长的还要多，

So what else could we forage from the city?

那么我们还能从城市中寻找什么呢?

Insects? Pigeons? Foxes?

昆虫? 鸽子? 狐狸?

Earlier, we brought back air from the future.

早些时候，我们从未来带回了空气。

This time we are bringing an entire room from the future,

这次我们将从未来 带来一个完整的房间，

一个充满希望、工具和战术的房间，

a room full of hope, tools and tactics

to create positive action in hostile conditions.

用来在恶性的环境中 创造出正确的行动。

Spending time in this room,

在这样的房间里呆上一会儿，

a room that could be our own future home,

一个可以成为我们未来家园的房间，

makes the consequences of climate change and food insecurity

能使气候变化和食物缺乏的后果

much more immediate and tangible.

更加直接和切实。

What we're learning through such experiments and our practice

我们通过这些实验和实践，

and the people we engage with

以及与我们接触的人们学到的是，

is that creating concrete experiences

创造具体的体验

can bridge the disconnect between today and tomorrow.

可以跨越今天和明天的鸿沟。

By putting ourselves into different possible futures,

通过把自己放到未来不同的可能性中，

by becoming open and willing

通过转变为坦率和乐意

to embrace the uncertainty and discomfort that such an act can bring,

去接受这种行为 所带来的不确定性和不适，

we have the opportunity to imagine new possibilities.

我们就有机会去想象新的可能性。

We can find optimistic futures;

我们可以找到乐观的未来；

we can find paths forward;

我们可以找到前进的路；

我们可以把希望变成行动。

we can move beyond hope into action.

It means we have the chance to change direction,

这意味着我们有改变未来的机会，

a chance to have our voices heard,

一个让我们的声音被听到机会,

a chance to write ourselves into a future we want.

一个把自己写进我们 想要的未来的机会。

Other worlds are possible.

另外的世界是充满可能的。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

(掌声)