Why we need to imagine different futures | Anab Jain

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang

I visit the future for a living.

我靠造訪未來來為生。

Not just one future,

不只是一個未來，

but many possible futures,

而是好幾個可能的未來，

bringing back evidences from those futures for you to experience today.

從那些未來帶回證據， 讓你們今天能夠體驗。

Like an archaeologist of the future.

我就像一位未來的考古學家。

Over the years, my many journeys have brought back things

多年來，我多趟的旅行 帶回來的東西包括

like a new species of synthetically engineered bees;

新品種人工合成的蜜蜂、

a book named, "Pets as Protein;"

一本名為「以寵物作為蛋白質」的書、

a machine that makes you rich by trading your genetic data;

一台透過買賣你的基因資料 來讓你致富的機器、

a lamp powered by sugar;

一盞以糖為能源的燈、

a computer for growing food.

一台種糧食用的電腦。

OK, so I don't actually travel to different futures -- yet.

好吧，我其實無法旅行到 不同的未來，目前還無法。

But my husband Jon and I spend a lot of time thinking

但我和我的老公，強，花了很多時間

and creating visions of different futures in our studio.

在我們的工作室裡思考 並創造不同未來的想法。

We are constantly looking out for weak signals,

我們經常在尋找微弱的訊號，

those murmurs of future potential.

即那些關於未來可能性的私語。

Then we trace those threads of potential out into the future, asking:

接著，我們追蹤這些可能性， 一路追蹤到未來，並問：

What might it feel like to live in this future?

生活在這個未來裡的感覺會是如何？

What might we see, hear and even breathe?

我們可能會看到、聽到、 甚至呼吸到什麼？

Then we run experiments, build prototypes, make objects,

接著，我們進行實驗、 建立原型、製作實物，

bringing aspects of these futures to life,

呈現這些未來的外觀，

making them concrete and tangible

讓這些未來的實體成形，

so you can really feel the impact of those future possibilities

使你們當下得以在此感受到

這些未來可能帶來的衝擊。

here and now.

But this work is not about predictions.

但這並不是在做預測，

It's about creating tools --

而是在創造工具，

tools that can help connect our present and our future selves

能協助我們連結現在的自我 與未來的自我的工具，

so we become active participants in creating a future we want --

使我們成為主動的參與者， 共同打造一個我們渴望的未來，

a future that works for all.

一個對大家而言都行得通的未來。

So how do we go about doing this?

我們如何做呢？

For a recent project called Drone Aviary,

近期有一個名為 「鳥舍無人機」的計畫，

we were interested in exploring

我們想要探究的是

what it would mean to live with drones in our cities.

與無人機一同生活在城市的涵義。

Drones that have the power to see things we can't,

無人機可以看見我們看不見的東西，

to go places we can't

到達我們到達不了的地方，

and to do so with increasing autonomy.

且它們這麼做時還有著自主權。

But to understand the technology,

但為了解這樣科技，

getting our hands dirty was crucial.

親自下海去做是很重要的。

So we built several different drones in our studio.

所以我們在工作室裡 打造了幾架不同的無人機，

We gave them names, functions and then flew them --

為它們命名，給它們功能， 並操作它們飛行。

but not without difficulty.

但不是沒遇到困難，比如

Things came loose,

有些東西會鬆掉、

GPS signals glitched

GPS訊號故障、

and drones crashed.

還有無人機墜機。

But it was through such experimentation

但是就是透過這樣的實驗，

that we could construct a very concrete and very experiential slice

我們才能夠打造出 可能未來的其中一小部份，

of one possible future.

具體且來自經驗的一小部份。

So now, let's go to that future.

所以，現在，我們前往那個未來吧。

Let's imagine we are living in a city with drones like this one.

想像我們與像這樣的無人機 一同住在一個城市中。

We call it The Nightwatchman.

我們稱這台為「守夜者」。

It patrols the streets, often spotted in the evenings and at night.

它會在街上巡邏， 通常在傍晚和晚上可以看到它。

Initially, many of us were annoyed by its low, dull hum.

剛開始，很多人會覺得 它低沉單調的嗡嗡聲很惱人。

But then, like everything else, we got used to it.

但和我們習慣其他的事物一樣， 接下來我們習慣了它。

Now, what if you could see the world through its eyes?

假如你能夠透過它的眼睛 來看世界，會是怎樣的？

See how it constantly logs every resident of our neighborhood;

看看它如何不斷在記錄 我們街坊中的每位居民；

logging the kids who play football in the no-ballgame area

記錄在禁止球類運動區中 玩足球的那些孩子，

and marking them as statutory nuisances.

並將他們標記為法定滋擾者。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And then see how it disperses this other group, who are teenagers,

然後看它如何驅散這群青少年，

靠的是威脅要自動簽發強制令。

with the threat of an autonomously issued injunction.

And then there's this giant floating disc called Madison.

還有這台名叫麥迪森的巨大飛碟。

Its glaring presence is so overpowering,

它顯眼的存在給人壓迫感，

I can't help but stare at it.

我忍不住盯著它看。

But if feels like each time I look at it,

但感覺每當我多看它一眼，

it knows a little more about me --

它就多了解我一點。

like it keeps flashing all these Brianair adverts at me,

就像它不斷對我呈現那些 Brianair 航空公司的廣告，

as if it knows about the holiday I'm planning.

彷彿它知道我正規劃著假期一般。

I'm not sure if I find this mildly entertaining

我不太確定我的感受，

是有點好玩，還是全然被冒犯了。

or just entirely invasive.

Back to the present.

回到現在，

In creating this future, we learned a lot.

在創造這個未來時，我們學到很多。

Not just about how these machines work,

不只學到這些機器如何運作，

but what it would feel like to live alongside them.

也學到和它們一起生活的感受如何。

Whilst drones like Madison and Nightwatchman,

雖然無人機，特別是像麥迪森跟守夜者

in these particular forms,

這類形式的無人機，

are not real yet,

尚未成真，

most elements of a drone future are in fact very real today.

許多無人機的未來元素 在現今就非常真實了。

For instance,

比如，

facial recognition systems are everywhere --

臉孔辨識系統到處可見，

in our phones, even in our thermostats

在我們的手機上，甚至在溫度調節器

and in cameras around our cities --

和城市各處無所不在的攝影機上 ，

keeping a record of everything we do,

記錄著我們所做的每件事，

whether it's an advertisement we glanced at or a protest we attended.

不論是我們看了一眼的廣告， 或是參與的抗議活動。

These things are here,

這些現今已然存在，

and we often don't understand how they work,

我們通常不了解它們如何運作，

and what their consequences could be.

也不知道它們會造成什麼後果。

And we see this all around us.

在我們身邊處處可見。

This difficulty in even imagining

難以想像

how the consequences of our actions today will affect our future.

我們今天的行為 會如何影響我們的未來。

Last year, where I live, in the UK, there was a referendum

去年在我的居住地，英國， 有一場公民投票，

where the people could vote for the UK to leave the EU

人民投票選擇是要英國脫離歐盟

or stay in the EU,

或留在歐盟中，

popularly known as "Brexit."

一般稱為「英國脫歐（Brexit）」。 （註：Br 英國 + exit 脫離）

And soon after the results came out,

在結果出來之後不久，

a word began to surface called "Bregret" --

「（英國後悔）Bregret」一詞出現了。 （註：Br 英國 + regret 後悔）

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

describing people who chose to vote for Brexit as a protest,

這詞被用來形容 投票贊成英國脫歐以示抗議，

but without thinking through its potential consequences.

卻但沒有想清楚 會造成什麼後果的那些人。

And this disconnect is evident in some of the simplest things.

顯而易見的不一致性 出現在一些非常簡單的事物上。

Say you go out for a quick drink.

比如，你出門想快速喝杯酒，

Then you decide you wouldn't mind a few more.

接著，你決定多喝幾杯，

You know you'll wake up in the morning feeling awful,

明明知道隔天早上起床會很難受，

but you justify it by saying,

但你找了個理由，說：

"The other me in the future will deal with that."

「未來面對宿醉的是另一個我。」

But as we find out in the morning,

但次日的早晨，我們發現

that future "you" is you.

那個未來的「你」就是你本人。

When I was growing up in India in the late '70s and early '80s,

當我 70 年代末、80 年代初 在印度長大時，

there was a feeling

有一種感覺，就是

that the future both needed to and could actually be planned.

未來需要被規劃， 而且確實能夠被規劃。

I remember my parents had to plan for some of the simplest things.

記得我父母必須規劃 一些最簡單的事。

When they wanted a telephone in our house,

想在家裡裝支電話，

they needed to order it and then wait --

他們需要先預訂，然後等待，

wait for nearly five years before it got installed in our house.

等了將近五年，我們家才裝了電話。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And then if they wanted to call my grandparents who lived in another city,

如果他們想打電話 給我住在外地的祖父母，

they needed to book something called a "trunk call,"

他們需要訂購一種叫 「長途電話」的東西，

and then wait again, for hours or even days.

然後再等待，等幾小時甚至幾天。

And then abruptly, the phone would ring at two in the morning,

可能在清晨兩點電話鈴突然響起，

我們所有人跳下床，圍著電話，

and all of us would jump out of our beds and gather round the phone,

對著電話大喊，話家常，

shrieking into it, discussing general well-being

at two in the morning.

清晨兩點鐘。

Today it can feel like things are happening too fast --

今天，感覺像是事物都發生得太快，

so fast, that it can become really difficult

快到讓我們很難去

for us to form an understanding of our place in history.

了解我們在歷史上的位置。

It creates an overwhelming sense of uncertainty and anxiety,

它會造成不可抵擋的 不確定感和焦慮感，

and so, we let the future just happen to us.

如此，我們容許未來 直接發生在我們的身上。

We don't connect with that future "us."

我們沒連結上「未來的我們」，

We treat our future selves as a stranger,

而是把未來的自己當作外人，

and the future as a foreign land.

把未來當作異鄉。

It's not a foreign land;

未來不是異鄉，

it's unfolding right in front of us,

它正在我們的面前展開，

continually being shaped by our actions today.

不斷由我們現今的行為塑造成形。

We are that future,

我們就是那未來，

and so I believe fighting for a future we want

所以我相信為我們希求的未來而戰

is more urgent and necessary than ever before.

比以往更為迫切。

We have learned in our work

從實作中，我們學到

that one of the most powerful means of effecting change

若要影響改變，最強大的手段之一

is when people can directly, tangibly and emotionally experience

就是讓人們能夠直接地、 實質地，帶著情緒地

去體驗一些他們現今行為 所造成的未來後果。

some of the future consequences of their actions today.

Earlier this year, the government of the United Arab Emirates invited us

今年年初，我們應 阿拉伯聯合大公國政府之邀，

to help them shape their country's energy strategy

去協助他們計畫該國的能源策略，

all the way up to 2050.

一直到 2050 年的策略。

Based on the government's econometric data, we created this large city model,

根據該政府的計量經濟資料， 我們建立了這個大型城市模型，

and visualized many possible futures on it.

將許多可能的未來 都視覺化呈現在其中。

As I was excitably taking a group of government officials

當我很興奮地帶著一群政府官員

and members of energy companies

以及能源公司的成員

through one sustainable future on our model,

看過我們模型呈現的一個永續未來，

one of the participants told me,

其中一位參與者告訴我：

"I cannot imagine that in the future people will stop driving cars

「我無法想像未來人們不再開車，

and start using public transport."

開始改乘大眾交通工具。」

And then he said,

接著，他說：

"There's no way I can tell my own son to stop driving his car."

「我不可能叫我兒子不再開車。」

But we were prepared for this reaction.

但我們對這樣的反應早有準備，

Working with scientists in a chemistry lab in my home city in India,

我們和科學家合作，在我印度 家鄉城市的化學實驗室中，

we had created approximate samples

創造出了近似的樣本，

of what the air would be like in 2030 if our behavior stays the same.

來呈現如果我們的行為持續不變， 2030 年的空氣會是什麼樣子。

And so, I walked the group over to this object

所以，我帶這群人走向這樣物品，

that emits vapor from those air samples.

然後把那些空氣樣本釋放出來。

Just one whiff of the noxious polluted air from 2030

吸一口這 2030 年的 有害污染空氣，

brought home the point that no amount of data can.

比任何份量的數據更能指出重點。

This is not the future you would want your children to inherit.

這不是你希望你的孩子繼承的未來。

The next day, the government made a big announcement.

隔天，該政府做了一項重大宣佈，

They would be investing billions of dollars in renewables.

他們將投入數十億元於再生能源上。

We don't know what part our future experiences played in this decision,

我們不知道我們的未來體驗 在這個決策中扮演了什麼角色，

but we know that they've changed their energy policy

但我們知道這些未來體驗 的確改變了他們的能源政策，

to mitigate such a scenario.

轉向試著緩和這個污染情況。

While something like air from the future is very effective and tangible,

雖然來自未來的空氣 是非常有效且有形的，

the trajectory from our present to a future consequence

從我們現今對應到未來後果的軌道

is not always so linear.

不見得都是這麼線性的。

Even when a technology is developed with utopian ideals,

即使是根據烏托邦理想 而開發出來的科技，

the moment it leaves the laboratory and enters the world,

當它離開實驗室，進入真實世界，

it is subject to forces outside of the creators' control.

它就要面臨其創造者 無法控制的外在力量，

For one particular project, we investigated medical genomics:

在一個特別的專案中， 我們研究了醫學的基因組學：

the technology of gathering and using people's genetic data

這項技術收集和使用人的基因資料，

to create personalized medicine.

來創造個人化的藥物。

We were asking:

我們問：

What are some of the unintended consequences of linking our genetics

連結我們的基因組學與健康照護

會有什麼未預期的後果？

to health care?

To explore this question further,

為了進一步探究這個問題，

we created a fictional lawsuit,

我們創造了一個虛構的法律訴訟，

and brought it to life through 31 pieces of carefully crafted evidence.

用 31 個細心製作的證據 讓它活起來，

So we built an illegal genetic clinic,

我們建立了一所非法的基因診所，

a DIY carbon dioxide incubator,

以及自製的二氧化碳恆溫箱，

and even bought frozen mice on eBay.

甚至從 eBay 買了冰凍老鼠。

So now let's go to that future where this lawsuit is unfolding,

現在我們前往未來， 去看看這個訴訟如何展開，

and meet the defendant, Arnold Mann.

以及看這被告，阿諾曼恩。

Arnold is being prosecuted by this global giant biotech company

一間大型的生技公司控告阿諾，

called Dynamic Genetics,

公司名叫 Dynamic Genetics （直譯：動態遺傳學）。

because they have evidence

因為他們有證據顯示

that Arnold has illegally inserted the company's patented genetic material

阿諾的身體非法植入了

該公司握有的專利基因素材。

into his body.

How on earth did Arnold manage to do that?

到底阿諾是怎麼做到的？

Well, it all started

嗯，一切源於

when Arnold was asked to submit a saliva sample in this spit kit

阿諾被要求交出一盒唾液樣本

to the NHI --

給 NHI，

the UK's National Health Insurance service.

英國的國家健康保險服務。

When Arnold received his health insurance bill,

當阿諾收到健康保險帳單時，

he was shocked and scared

他很驚訝和害怕，

to see that his premiums had gone through the roof,

因為他發現他的保險費飆高，

beyond anything he or his family could ever afford.

遠超過他或他的家人能負擔的金額。

The state's algorithm had scanned his genetic data

國家的演算法掃瞄了他的基因資料，

and found the risk of a chronic health condition lurking in his DNA.

發現有慢性健康問題的風險 潛伏在他的 DNA 中。

And so Arnold had to start paying toward the potential costs

所以阿諾得要開始支付

那未來潛在疾病的治療成本，

of that future disease --

potential future disease from today.

那是現在來看有可能 在未來發生的疾病。

In that moment of fear and panic,

在那恐懼和慌張的時刻，

Arnold slipped through the city

阿諾悄悄穿過城市，

into the dark shadows of this illegal clinic for treatment --

到一間非法診所暗中治療，

a treatment that would modify his DNA

修正他的 DNA，

so that the state's algorithm would no longer see him as a risk,

讓國家演算法不再判讀他存在風險，

and his insurance premiums would become affordable again.

而保險費降回負擔得起的金額。

But Arnold was caught.

但阿諾被逮到，

And the legal proceedings in the case Dynamic Genetics v. Mann began.

Dynamic Genetics 公司 對付阿諾曼恩的法律訴訟開始了 。

In bringing such a future to life,

在呈現出未來的時候，

what was important to us was that people could actually touch,

對我們很重要的一點， 是人們要真的能觸碰、

see and feel its potential,

看見、感受到這個未來的可能性，

because such an immediate and close encounter provokes people

因為這種立即且親密的接觸，

to ask the right questions,

會使人們正確提問，

questions like:

比如這樣的問題：

What are the implications of living in a world

居住在一個由基因判斷人的世界

where I'm judged on my genetics?

有什麼意涵？

Or: Who might claim ownership to my genetic data,

或，誰能擁有我的基因資料

and what might they do with it?

和會用這些資料做什麼？

If this feels even slightly out-there or farfetched,

如果你覺得這有點牽強，

today there's a little-known bill being passed through the American congress

現今，有個鮮少人知道的法案 正處於美國國會的審查流程中，

known as HR 1313, Preserving Employee Wellness Programs Act.

叫做 HR 1313， 維護員工健康專案法。

This bill proposes to amend the Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act,

法案的內容是要修正 非歧視基因資訊法，

popularly known as GINA,

通稱 GINA，

and would allow employers to ask about family medical history

它允許僱主詢問其所有員工的

家庭醫療病史以及基因資料，

and genetic data

to all employees for the first time.

史上頭一回。

Those who refuse would face large penalties.

拒絕提供資料的員工將面臨重罰。

In the work I've shown so far,

在我目前已經展現出來的內容中，

whether it was drones or genetic crimes,

不論是無人機或基因犯罪，

these stories describe troubling futures

這些故事都在描述讓人困擾的未來，

with the intention of helping us avoid those futures.

故事目的是在協助我們 避免發生這些未來。

But what about what we can't avoid?

但對我們無法避免的，要如何是好？

Today, especially with climate change,

現今看來，氣候變遷尤其

it looks like we are heading for trouble.

使我們面臨困境。

And so what we want to do now is to prepare for that future

因此我們現在要為未來做準備，

by developing tools and attitudes that can help us find hope --

我們可以發展工具和備好態度 來協助我們找到希望，

hope that can inspire action.

找到能夠激發行動的希望。

Currently, we are running an experiment in our studio.

目前，我們工作室正進行一項實驗，

It's a work in progress.

正朝著目標前進。

Based on climate data projections,

根據氣候資料預測，

we are exploring a future

在我們正探究的未來中，

where the Western world has moved from abundance to scarcity.

西方世界已經從充足變為匱乏。

We imagine living in a future city with repeated flooding,

想像我們居住在洪水 不斷重覆泛濫成災的未來城市中，

periods with almost no food in supermarkets,

超市裡幾乎沒有食物，

economic instabilities,

經濟不穩定，

broken supply chains.

供應鏈支離破碎。

What can we do to not just survive, but prosper in such a world?

在這樣的世界裡，如果不只要生存， 還要繁榮，我們能做些什麼？

What food can we eat?

我們能吃什麼食物？

To really step inside these questions,

為了真正探究這些問題，

we are building this room in a flat in London from 2050.

我們正在倫敦的一間公寓裡 建造這個 2050 年的房間。

It's like a little time capsule that we reclaimed from the future.

它像是我們回收自未來的時空膠囊。

We stripped it down to the bare minimum.

我們將它減至最精簡。

Everything we lovingly put in our homes,

家中我們深愛並擺放的一切，

like flat-panel TVs,

比如平板電視、

internet-connected fridges

有網路連線的冰箱、

and artisanal furnishings

以及工藝傢俱，

all had to go.

都得除掉。

And in its place, we're building food computers

取而代之，我們建立了食物電腦，

from abandoned, salvaged and repurposed materials,

用的是被棄的廢料， 以及改變用途再利用的材料，

turning today's waste into tomorrow's dinner.

將今天的垃圾轉為明日的晚餐。

For instance,

比如，

we've just finished building our first fully automated fogponics machine.

我們才剛建好第一個全自動霧耕機，

It uses the technique of fogponics -- so just fog as a nutrient,

用霧耕的技術， 也就是只用霧氣當作養份，

not even water or soil --

甚至不用水或土，

to grow things quickly.

來快速種植栽培。

At the moment,

此刻，

we have successfully grown tomatoes.

我們已經成功種出了蕃茄。

But we'll need more food than what we can grow in this small room.

但我們需要的食物量 遠超過這小房間中種得出來的。

So what else could we forage from the city?

所以我們還能從城市中 搜索到什麼來做糧秣？

Insects? Pigeons? Foxes?

昆蟲？鴿子？狐狸？

Earlier, we brought back air from the future.

先前，我們帶回了未來的空氣。

This time we are bringing an entire room from the future,

這次，我們要把整個房間 從未來帶回現在，

a room full of hope, tools and tactics

這個房間中滿是希望、工具和戰術，

to create positive action in hostile conditions.

用來在惡劣條件下創造正面的行動。

Spending time in this room,

花時間在這間

a room that could be our own future home,

我們未來可能的家裡面，

makes the consequences of climate change and food insecurity

把氣候改變和糧食不安全的後果

much more immediate and tangible.

變得更直接、更具體。

What we're learning through such experiments and our practice

我們從這類的實驗、

實作，以及參與的人中學到：

and the people we engage with

is that creating concrete experiences

創造出具體的實驗

can bridge the disconnect between today and tomorrow.

能架起連結今日和明日之間的橋樑。

By putting ourselves into different possible futures,

透過把我們自己放入 不同的可能未來中，

by becoming open and willing

透過變得開放且願意

to embrace the uncertainty and discomfort that such an act can bring,

擁抱這類行為可能會帶來的 不確定性和不舒服，

we have the opportunity to imagine new possibilities.

我們就有機會能想像出新的可能性。

We can find optimistic futures;

我們能夠找到樂觀的未來；

we can find paths forward;

我們能夠找到向前的路；

we can move beyond hope into action.

我們能超越僅僅希望的層面， 真正開始行動。

It means we have the chance to change direction,

這意味著，我們有機會改變方向，

a chance to have our voices heard,

有機會讓我們的聲音被聽見，

a chance to write ourselves into a future we want.

有機會將我們自己 寫入我們想要的未來當中。

Other worlds are possible.

其他的世界是有可能的。

Thank you.

謝謝大家。

(Applause)

（掌聲）