How fear of nuclear power is hurting the environment | Michael Shellenberger

翻译人员: Conway Ye 校对人员: Junyi Sha

Have you heard the news?

你们看新闻了吗？

We're in a clean energy revolution.

我们正在进行 清洁能源革命。

And where I live in Berkeley, California,

我住在加利福尼亚州伯克利市，

it seems like every day I see a new roof with new solar panels going up,

几乎每天我都会看到新的 太阳能板被装在屋顶上，

electric car in the driveway.

电动汽车停在车道上。

Germany sometimes gets half its power from solar,

德国一半的电力 来自于太阳能，

印度计划在2022年完成

and India is now committed to building 10 times more solar

than we have in California,

的太阳能板数量，

by the year 2022.

是加州的十倍。

Even nuclear seems to be making a comeback.

甚至连核电 都重返舞台了。

Bill Gates is in China working with engineers,

比尔·盖茨正在中国 和工程师们合作，

there's 40 different companies that are working together

他们来自超过 40家不同的公司，

to try to race to build the first reactor that runs on waste,

互相竞争，尝试建造第一个 以废材为原料的反应堆，

永不融化，

that can't melt down

and is cheaper than coal.

比烧煤还便宜。

And so you might start to ask:

所以，你可能会问：

Is this whole global warming problem

“全球变暖问题

going to be a lot easier to solve than anybody imagined?

是不是比大家想象中 要更容易解决？”

That was the question we wanted to know,

这也是我们想知道的，

so my colleagues and I decided to take a deep dive into the data.

所以我和我的同事们 开始调查数据。

We were a little skeptical of some parts

之前我们对能源革命 中的一部分故事

of the clean energy revolution story,

有所怀疑，

but what we found really surprised us.

但是最终的发现 却让我们大吃一惊。

The first thing is that clean energy has been increasing.

首先，清洁能源的 使用率一直在升高。

This is electricity from clean energy sources over the last 20 years.

这是过去20年间， 清洁能源的总发电量。

但是当你看到 全球范围内

But when you look at the percentage of global electricity

from clean energy sources,

清洁能源总 发电量占比时，

事实上，这个比例
 从36%下降到了31%。

it's actually been in decline from 36 percent to 31 percent.

And if you care about climate change,

如果你在意气候变化，

you've got to go in the opposite direction

你一定要尽快做出改变，

使用纯清洁能源电力

to 100 percent of our electricity from clean energy sources,

as quickly as possible.

越快越好。

Now, you might wonder,

现在，你可能会问，

"Come on, how much could five percentage points of global electricity be?"

“拜托，全球5%的 电力能有多少？”

Well, it turns out to be quite a bit.

事实证明还蛮多的。

这些电力等价于 60个核电站的产量，

It's the equivalent of 60 nuclear plants

the size of Diablo Canyon, California's last nuclear plant,

每个都有加州核电站 “
代阿布洛”的大小，

or 900 solar farms the size of Topaz,

或900个“托帕石”大小 的
太阳能发电厂，

which is one of the biggest solar farms in the world,

“托帕石”是世界上最大 的
太阳能发电厂之一，

and certainly our biggest in California.

当然也是加州最大的。

A big part of this is simply that fossil fuels are increasing

主要原因仅是
化石燃料 的使用率在逐年增加，

faster than clean energy.

要比清洁能源的速度快。

这是可以理解的。

And that's understandable.

There's just a lot of poor countries

因为还有很多贫困国家，

它们还在把木材、粪便和木炭

that are still using wood and dung and charcoal

as their main source of energy,

作为
主要的能源材料，

and they need modern fuels.

他们需要现代燃料。

But there's something else going on,

但是，还有另一件 事情正在发生，

which is that one of those clean energy sources in particular

那就是有一种 特定的清洁能源

has actually been on the decline in absolute terms,

的使用量的 绝对值正在下降，

而非仅仅是相对占比。

not just relatively.

And that's nuclear.

那就是核能。

You can see its generation has declined seven percent

你会发现， 在过去的10年里，

over the last 10 years.

核能的发电量 已经下降了7%。

Now, solar and wind have been making huge strides,

当前，太阳能和 风能正在飞速发展。

所以你听到了很多言论， 表示核能下降不是问题，

so you hear a lot of talk about how it doesn't really matter,

因为太阳能和风能 会弥补这一缺失。

because solar and wind is going to make up the difference.

But the data says something different.

但数据却告诉我们 事实不是这样的。

When you combine all the electricity from solar and wind,

当你把所有由太阳和风 创造的电力总量相加时，

you see it actually barely makes up half of the decline from nuclear.

你会发现这仅弥补了
 核能发电缺失的一半。

Let's take a closer look in the United States.

让我们来看看美国，

在过去的几年里， 尤其是2013，14年，

Over the last couple of years -- really 2013, 2014 --

we prematurely retired four nuclear power plants.

我们过早报废了 四个核电站。

They were almost entirely replaced with fossil fuels,

它们的发电量几乎全部
 被化石燃料发电取代了，

and so the consequence was that we wiped out

所以结果就是 我们放弃了

almost as much clean energy electricity that we get from solar.

几乎和太阳能发电量
 相当的清洁能源。

And it's not unique to us.

而且，我们在 这件事上并不唯一。

人们认为加州是使用清洁能源
 和保护环境的先锋州，

People think of California as a clean energy and climate leader,

but when we looked at the data,

但是当我们查看数据，

what we found is that, in fact,

我们发现，事实上，

California reduced emissions more slowly than the national average,

在2000到2015年间，

between 2000 and 2015.

加州的减排速度 是低于全国速度的。

What about Germany?

德国的情况又怎样呢？

They're doing a lot of clean energy.

德国人在使用 很多清洁能源。

But when you look at the data,

但是当你查看数据时，

German emissions have actually been going up since 2009,

会发现德国的排放量， 自09年
开始就持续升高，

and there's really not anybody who's going to tell you

而且一定没有人会告诉你，

that they're going to meet their climate commitments in 2020.

他们计划在2020年 实现他们的气候承诺。

原因并不难理解。

The reason isn't hard to understand.

Solar and wind provide power about 10 to 20 percent of the time,

现在太阳能和风能提供了 大概10%到20%的电力，

which means that when the sun's not shining,

这意味着当阴雨连绵，

the wind's not blowing,

风平浪静的时候，

you still need power for your hospitals,

你依旧需要给医院、家庭、

your homes, your cities, your factories.

城市、工厂提供电力。

And while batteries have made some really cool improvements lately,

虽然近来电池领域 有了些巨大发展，

the truth is, they're just never going to be as efficient

但真相是， 它们永远做不到

as the electrical grid.

输电网那样的高效率。

Every time you put electricity into a battery and take it out,

每当你把电输入 电池并使用它，

you lose about 20 to 40 percent of the power.

你都会丢失20% 到40%的电量。

That's why when, in California,

这就是为什么在加州，

我们正在尝试 太阳能的完全使用－

we try to deal with all the solar we've brought online --

we now get about 10 percent of electricity from solar --

我们现在能够从太阳能 获得大约10%的电力－

when the sun goes down, and people come home from work

当太阳下山时， 人们下班回家，

and turn on their air conditioners and their TV sets,

打开空调和电视，

and every other appliance in the house,

和其他家中电器时，

we need a lot of natural gas backup.

我们仍需要大量 天然气储备。

So what we've been doing

所以我们一直以来做的，

is stuffing a lot of natural gas into the side of a mountain.

就是把天然气贮存在山脊里。

And that worked pretty well for a while,

这个计划的确在 一段时间里成功了，

but then late last year, it sprung a leak.

直至去年它发生了泄漏。

This is Aliso Canyon.

这是阿灵所峡谷。

So much methane gas was released,

大量的甲烷被释放，

it was the equivalent of putting half a million cars on the road.

相当于五十万辆 行驶汽车的排放量。

就这样，它就轻松 打破了那年排放预算。

It basically blew through all of our climate commitments for the year.

Well, what about India?

好吧，印度的情况又怎样呢？

有时，你是需要实地 收集真实数据的，

Sometimes you have to go places to really get the right data,

so we traveled to India a few months ago.

所以我们几个月前去了印度。

We met with all the top officials -- solar, nuclear, the rest --

我们会见了政府中
所有跟太阳能、 核能及其他能源有关的高级官员，

and what they told us is,

他们告诉我：

“我们这儿的
问题，

"We're actually having more serious problems

比德国和加州更严峻。

than both Germany and California.

We don't have backup; we don't have all the natural gas.

我们没有后备贮藏， 也没有那么多天然气。

And that's just the start of it.

然而这只是问题 的一小部分。

Say we want to get to 100 gigawatts by 2022.

举个例子，我们想在2022年， 产生一千亿瓦特的电量。

But last year we did just five,

但是去年我们却只 产生了五十亿瓦特，

and the year before that, we did five."

前年，我们也只 产生了五十亿瓦特。”

So, let's just take a closer look at nuclear.

所以，让我们好好 研究一下核能。

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

联合国气候变化政府间协商组织

调查了不同燃料的碳含量，

has looked at the carbon content of all these different fuels,

结果表明：核能有比 太阳能还要低的碳含量。

and nuclear comes out really low -- it's actually lower even than solar.

And nuclear obviously provides a lot of power --

而且核能明显 有更高电产量。

24 hours a day, seven days a week.

一天24小时，一周7天。

During a year, a single plant can provide power 92 percent of the time.

一年间，核电厂有 92%的时间都在工作。

What's interesting is that when you look at countries

有趣的是，当你关注那些

使用着各种 清洁能源的国家时，

that have deployed different kinds of clean energies,

there's only a few that have done so

只有一小部分跟得上

at a pace consistent with dealing with the climate crisis.

解决能源危机的步伐。

So nuclear seems like a pretty good option,

核能发电看起来 是个很好的选择，

but there's this big problem with it,

但是潜藏一个巨大的问题，

which all of you, I'm sure, are aware of,

我保证你们都知道，

which is that people really don't like it.

那就是人们并不欢迎核电。

There was a study, a survey done of people around the world,

在一年半以前，

not just in the United States or Europe,

有一项不仅仅 针对美国或欧洲，

的世界范围民调。

about a year and a half ago.

And what they found

他们发现

核能发电是最不受 欢迎的
发电方式之一。

is that nuclear is actually one of the least popular forms of energy.

Even oil is more popular than nuclear.

甚至石油都比 核能发电更受欢迎。

And while nuclear kind of edges out coal, the thing is,

相比煤炭只是 更受欢迎一点点。

people don't really fear coal in the same way they fear nuclear,

人们害怕核能和害怕 煤炭本质上是不同，

which really operates on our unconscious.

但正是这种害怕在 不知不觉中
影响我们。

So what is it that we fear?

那我们究竟 是害怕什么呢？

There's really three things.

其实有三个原因，

关于担心核电站的安全性：

There's the safety of the plants themselves --

the fears that they're going to melt down and cause damage;

害怕它会融化并伤害人体；

害怕伴随而来的废料；

there's the waste from them;

and there's the association with weapons.

以及核电和军事武器的联系。

And I think, understandably,

由此，我认为，

工程师已经了解这些疑虑
并在 尝试寻找技术上的解决方式。

engineers look at those concerns and look for technological fixes.

这就是为什么比尔盖茨在 中国
研发更先进的反应堆。

That's why Bill Gates is in China developing advanced reactors.

这就是为什么40个企业家 在着手
研究这个问题。

That's why 40 different entrepreneurs are working on this problem.

And I, myself, have been very excited about it.

对于我来说，这是 一件令人激动的事。

We did a report: "How to Make Nuclear Cheap."

我们做了一个报告
 《如何降低核能价格》。

In particular, the thorium reactor shows a lot of promise.

具体来说，钍反应堆 带来了光明的前景。

So when the climate scientist, James Hansen,

所以当环境科学家 詹姆斯・汉森

asked if I wanted to go to China with him

问我想不想跟他去中国，

去看中国先进的 核能发电项目时。

and look at the Chinese advanced nuclear program,

I jumped at the chance.

我就欣然接受了邀请，

We were there with MIT and UC Berkeley engineers.

我们和麻省理工，还有 加州伯克利的工程师一起。

And I had in my mind

我的想法是：

that the Chinese would be able to do with nuclear

中国人能够改良核电，

what they did with so many other things --

就像他们改良 其他东西一样，

先开始在流水线上 拆分小型核能反应堆，

start to crank out small nuclear reactors on assembly lines,

ship them up like iPhones or MacBooks and send them around the world.

然后把它们像iPhone和Macbook
 一样装上船并运到世界各地。

I would get one at home in Berkeley.

我可以在伯克利 的家里放置一台，

但是事实上却是不同的。

But what I found was somewhat different.

演说令人激动， 鼓舞人心，

The presentations were all very exciting and very promising;

他们正在研究 复合反应堆。

they have multiple reactors that they're working on.

The time came for the thorium reactor, and a bunch of us were excited.

当讲到钍反应堆的时候，
 我们中很多人都十分激动。

They went through the whole presentation, they got to the timeline,

演讲快结束的时候，
 他们讲到了时间线。

and they said,

他们说：

"We're going to have a thorium molten salt reactor

"我们的钍盐熔融反应堆，

将在2040年

ready for sale to the world

by 2040."

准备好走向世界"。

And I was like, "What?"

我的反应是 “啥？”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I looked at my colleagues and I was like,

我看向我的同事们，

"Excuse me --

“抱歉，

你们能加快一点速度吗？

can you guys speed that up a little bit?

Because we're in a little bit of a climate crisis right now.

因为我们现在好像 正面临着气候危机，

And your cities are really polluted, by the way."

而且，你们的城市污染 貌似也很严重啊。”

And they responded back, they were like,

然后，他们回答我， 类似说：

"I'm not sure what you've heard about our thorium program,

“我不知道你之前是否听说过 我们
钍反应堆的项目，

but we don't have a third of our budget,

但是我们缺少三分之一的经费，

and your department of energy hasn't been particularly forthcoming

而且你们的能源局 似乎不是很愿意

with all that data you guys have on testing reactors."

把你们测试反应堆 的数据全部给我们。"

And I said, "Well, I've got an idea.

我说：“好吧， 我有一个主意。”

You know how you've got 10 years where you're demonstrating that reactor?

你们不是有十年时间 用于展示反应堆吗？

Let's just skip that part,

让我们直接跳过那部分，

and let's just go right to commercializing it.

然后我们直接市场化。

That will save money and time."

这样能够节约我们 的时间和金钱。

And the engineer just looked at me and said,

然后那个工程师 就看着我说道：

"Let me ask you a question:

“让我问你一个问题，

Would you buy a car that had never been demonstrated before?"

你会在没有看过产品展示 的情况下买一辆车吗？”

So what about the other reactors?

换作反应堆呢？

There's a reactor that's coming online now, they're starting to sell it.

有一款即将完成的反应堆，
 现在，它即将开始售卖。

这是一个高温气体反应堆。

It's a high-temperature gas reactor.

It can't melt down.

它不会融化。

But it's really big and bulky, that's part of the safety,

但是为了安全性考虑， 它的体积巨大且笨重。

and nobody thinks it's going to ever get cheaper

而且没有人认为它会变得

than the reactors that we have.

比其他反应堆更便宜。

The ones that use waste as fuel are really cool ideas, but the truth is,

那个把废物当燃料的反应堆 是
挺炫酷的，但真相是，

we don't actually know how to do that yet.

我们还不确定要怎样实现。

有风险还会产生更多的废料，

There's some risk that you'll actually make more waste,

and most people think that if you're including

大多数人认为，如果算上

that waste part of the process,

反应过程中的废物的话，

it's just going to make the whole machine a lot more expensive,

这台机器其实相当昂贵，

it's just adding another complicated step.

过程反而变得更加复杂。

The truth is,

事实上，

there's real questions about how much of that we're going to do.

真正的问题是我们应该 在
核能问题上走多远。

I mean, we went to India and asked about the nuclear program.

我的意思是，我们去了印度 并问了他们核电项目的相关问题。

The government said before the Paris climate talks

政府说在巴黎气候会议之前，

that they were going to do something like 30 new nuclear plants.

他们打算建造 30个新的核电站。

But when we got there and interviewed people

但是当我们到印度， 采访当地人，

and even looked at the internal documents,

甚至查看了内部文件，

they're now saying they're going to do about five.

他们说现在只建造了5个。

And in most of the world, especially the rich world,

而且世界上绝大部分，
 特别是那些富裕国家，

they're not talking about building new reactors.

他们没有建造新 核电站的想法，

We're actually talking about taking reactors down

反而在谈论拆毁

那些还未达到 使用年限的核电站。

before their lifetimes are over.

Germany's actually pressuring its neighbors to do that.

德国正在给邻国施压，
 让他们拆毁核电站，

I mentioned the United States --

当我们谈到美国，

we could lose half of our reactors over the next 15 years,

我们可能在未来15年间 失去一半的核反应堆，

which would wipe out 40 percent of the emissions reductions

这可能增加40%的排放量

we're supposed to get under the Clean Power Plan.

那些本应由清洁能源计划 承担的减排量。

当然在日本，它们把 所有的
核电站都报废了，

Of course, in Japan, they took all their nuclear plants offline,

并全部由煤炭， 天然气和石油代替，

replaced them with coal, natural gas, oil burning,

and they're only expected to bring online about a third to two-thirds.

而且他们只计划重新使用 其中的三分之一到三分之二，

当我们查看 这些数据的时候，

So when we went through the numbers,

and just added that up --

把它们加起来，

未来15年内，

how much nuclear do we see China and India bringing online

中国和印度会建 多少核电站呢？

over the next 15 years,

又有多少面临 被报废的风险呢？

how much do we see at risk of being taken offline --

this was the most startling finding.

答案令人震惊。

我们发现世界正面临着

What we found is that the world is actually at risk

of losing four times more clean energy than we lost over the last 10 years.

失去四倍于过去十年 清洁能源丧失量的危机。

换句话说，我们并不在 进行清洁能源革命，

In other words: we're not in a clean energy revolution;

we're in a clean energy crisis.

我们正处在清洁能源危机中，

So it's understandable that engineers would look for a technical fix

所以考虑到人们对核能的恐惧，

to the fears that people have of nuclear.

工程师们
正在寻找技术 修复是完全可以理解的。

但当考虑到 这些巨大的挑战，

But when you consider that these are big challenges to do,

that they're going to take a long time to solve,

解决是需要 花费很长时间的。

there's this other issue, which is:

另一个问题是：

这些技术修复真的能够 解决人们对核能的恐惧吗？

Are those technical fixes really going to solve people's fears?

Let's take safety.

拿安全问题来说吧。

You know, despite what people think,

尽管人们是这么想的，

it's hard to figure out how to make nuclear power much safer.

但是真正让核能 听起来安全是很困难的。

我的意思是，看看那些 有关
核能的医药杂志，

I mean, every medical journal that looks at it --

this is the most recent study from the British journal, "Lancet,"

这是英国《柳叶刀》 杂志的最新研究，

one of the most respected journals in the world --

《柳叶刀》是世界上 最受认可
的杂志之一，

核能是最安全的发电方式。

nuclear is the safest way to make reliable power.

Everybody's scared of the accidents.

每个人都害怕事故。

So you go look at the accident data --

所以你去查看事故数据－

Fukushima, Chernobyl --

福岛和切尔诺贝利－

the World Health Organization finds the same thing:

世界卫生组织在两次事故 中
总结出了同样的结论：

the vast majority of harm is caused by people panicking,

大部分的伤害是由 人民的恐慌造成的，

and they're panicking because they're afraid.

然而他们的恐慌 来源于他们的恐惧。

In other words,

换句话说，

the harm that's caused isn't actually caused by the machines

伤害并不是由机器

或是辐射造成的，

or the radiation.

It's caused by our fears.

而是由我们的恐惧造成的。

And what about the waste?

那来自核能的废物呢？

每个人都在担心废料。

Everyone worries about the waste.

Well, the interesting thing about the waste

但是，有趣的是，

is how little of it there is.

产生的废物， 其实只有一点儿。

This is just from one plant.

这就是由一个 核电站产生的废料。

If you take all the nuclear waste we've ever made in the United States,

如果你把美国核电站 产生的
所有废物加起来，

放到一个橄榄球场地， 堆积起来，

put it on a football field, stacked it up,

it would only reach 20 feet high.

只有6.1米高。

And people say it's poisoning people or doing something --

人们说废物会对人体 或其他事物产生伤害－

it's not, it's just sitting there, it's just being monitored.

但它并不会，只是被堆积 在那里，
并有人监管着。

There's not very much of it.

而且量并不大。

By contrast, the waste that we don't control from energy production --

相反，我们没有控制 的发电产生的废物，

我们称之为“污染”， 一年内七百万人死于此，

we call it "pollution," and it kills seven million people a year,

and it's threatening very serious levels of global warming.

而且它威胁着世界， 大大加重气候变暖。

事实上，如果我们能够
 很好地把废物当成燃料，

And the truth is that even if we get good at using that waste as fuel,

世界上总会有剩余的燃料。

there's always going to be some fuel left over.

That means there's always going to be people that think it's a big problem

这就意味着总会有人
 认为这是一个大问题，

for reasons that maybe don't have as much to do with the actual waste

因为我们可能没有能够

as we think.

在预期之内
很好 的利用废物。

Well, what about the weapons?

好，那武器呢？

可能最令人惊讶的 是
我们找不到任何例子，

Maybe the most surprising thing is that we can't find any examples

of countries that have nuclear power

没有哪个拥有核能的国家，

and then, "Oh!" decide to go get a weapon.

突然说，“哦”，然后 决定要制造一个武器。

In fact, it works the opposite.

事实正相反，

What we find is the only way we know

我们发现， 唯一能使我们

how to get rid large numbers of nuclear weapons

摆脱大量核武器的途径，

is by using the plutonium in the warheads

就是把弹头中的钚，

当成反应堆中的燃料。

as fuel in our nuclear power plants.

And so, if you are wanting to get the world rid of nuclear weapons,

因此，如果你想让 世界没有核武器，

then we're going to need a lot more nuclear power.

就要使用更多的核电。

(Applause)

（掌声）

As I was leaving China,

当我离开中国的时候，

the engineer that brought Bill Gates there kind of pulled me aside,

那个请来比尔盖茨的
 工程师曾把我拉到一边，

然后他说，“你知道吗， 迈克尔，我很欣赏

and he said, "You know, Michael, I appreciate your interest

in all the different nuclear supply technologies,

你能对不同 核电技术感兴趣。

but there's this more basic issue,

但是有一个更基本的问题，

which is that there's just not enough global demand.

世界并没有足够大的需求，

我的意思是，我能在 流水线上
组装这些机器，

I mean, we can crank out these machines on assembly lines,

我们也知道怎样让它变便宜，

we do know how to make things cheap,

but there's just not enough people that want them."

但是没有人愿意购买它们。

And so, let's do solar and wind and efficiency and conservation.

因此，我们还是使用太阳能
 和风能发电，保证效率。

Let's accelerate the advanced nuclear programs.

我们需要加速先进的核项目。

I think we should triple the amount of money we're spending on it.

我认为我们应该将 对核项目的投资翻倍。

但是我认为最重要的是，

But I just think the most important thing,

if we're going to overcome the climate crisis,

如果想要解决气候危机，

is to keep in mind that the cause of the clean energy crisis

就必须记住清洁能源 危机产生的原因，

isn't from within our machines,

那并不是由机器产生的，

it's from within ourselves.

而是由我们自己。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）