How fear of nuclear power is hurting the environment | Michael Shellenberger

譯者: 瑞文Eleven 林Lim 審譯者: Yanqi Xu

Have you heard the news?

你聽說了嗎？

We're in a clean energy revolution.

我們處於潔淨能源革命之中。

And where I live in Berkeley, California,

在我居住的加州柏克萊，

it seems like every day I see a new roof with new solar panels going up,

我幾乎每一天都能看到 新鋪上太陽能板的屋頂，

electric car in the driveway.

電動車停在家門前的車道。

Germany sometimes gets half its power from solar,

德國有時能有一半能源來自太陽能，

and India is now committed to building 10 times more solar

印度現正籌備建設的 太陽能發電裝置數量，

比加州在 2022 年 將建成的還要多 10 倍。

than we have in California,

by the year 2022.

Even nuclear seems to be making a comeback.

甚至核能似乎都捲土重來了。

Bill Gates is in China working with engineers,

比爾·蓋茨在中國與工程師合作，

there's 40 different companies that are working together

40 家公司一起合作

to try to race to build the first reactor that runs on waste,

試圖爭先建造第一個 依靠核廢料運行的反應堆，

that can't melt down

它的爐心不會熔化，

and is cheaper than coal.

而且比煤更便宜。

And so you might start to ask:

所以，你可能會想問：

Is this whole global warming problem

那麼全球暖化問題

going to be a lot easier to solve than anybody imagined?

真的比任何人想像中 都要容易解決嗎？

That was the question we wanted to know,

這是我們想知道的問題，

so my colleagues and I decided to take a deep dive into the data.

所以我和同事決定深入研究數據。

We were a little skeptical of some parts

我們對潔淨能源革命的故事

of the clean energy revolution story,

其中有某些地方有點疑問。

but what we found really surprised us.

但是研究的結果卻讓我們感到驚訝。

The first thing is that clean energy has been increasing.

第一件事就是

潔淨能源的使用一直在增加。

This is electricity from clean energy sources over the last 20 years.

這是潔淨能源過去 20 年的發電量。

But when you look at the percentage of global electricity

但是，當你看全球電力的百分比

from clean energy sources,

來自潔淨能源的部分，

it's actually been in decline from 36 percent to 31 percent.

實際上一直在下降， 從 36％ 到 31％。

And if you care about climate change,

如果你在乎氣候變化，

you've got to go in the opposite direction

你會覺得我們需要逆轉這個趨勢，

to 100 percent of our electricity from clean energy sources,

我們需要盡快把清潔能源所佔的

as quickly as possible.

發電比例提升到 100%。

Now, you might wonder,

現在，你可能會問，

"Come on, how much could five percentage points of global electricity be?"

「嘿！全球電力的 5% 能有多少嘛？」

Well, it turns out to be quite a bit.

事實上，這並不少。

It's the equivalent of 60 nuclear plants

而是相當於 60 座核電廠──

the size of Diablo Canyon, California's last nuclear plant,

代阿布洛峽谷核電廠──的發電量， 這是加州最後一座核電廠。

or 900 solar farms the size of Topaz,

或 900 座托帕石 太陽能電廠的發電量，

which is one of the biggest solar farms in the world,

這可是世界上 數一數二大的太陽能電廠。

and certainly our biggest in California.

當然也是加州最大的。

A big part of this is simply that fossil fuels are increasing

圖中大部分的區域顯示，

化石燃料持續增加， 比潔淨能源還快。

faster than clean energy.

And that's understandable.

這是可以理解的，

There's just a lot of poor countries

還有很多貧窮國家

that are still using wood and dung and charcoal

仍在使用木材、糞便和木炭

as their main source of energy,

作為主要的能源要來源，

and they need modern fuels.

他們需要現代燃料。

But there's something else going on,

但還有別的事情，

which is that one of those clean energy sources in particular

那就是，有一項潔淨能源的數據

has actually been on the decline in absolute terms,

從絕對數值來看，其實一直在下降，

not just relatively.

不只是相對數值，

And that's nuclear.

這就是核能。

You can see its generation has declined seven percent

你可以看到核電發電量

在過去的 10 年下降了百分之七。

over the last 10 years.

Now, solar and wind have been making huge strides,

現在，太陽能和風能 已經有了巨大的進步，

so you hear a lot of talk about how it doesn't really matter,

所以你聽到了很多演講， 說核能其實並不重要，

because solar and wind is going to make up the difference.

因為太陽能和風能足以彌補差額。

But the data says something different.

但數據顯示並非如此。

When you combine all the electricity from solar and wind,

當你把所有太陽和風能相加，

you see it actually barely makes up half of the decline from nuclear.

你看它實際上只能勉強彌補 核能下降值的一半。

Let's take a closer look in the United States.

讓我們來檢視美國的數據。

Over the last couple of years -- really 2013, 2014 --

在過去的幾年：2013—2014年，

we prematurely retired four nuclear power plants.

我們提早除役了四座核電廠。

They were almost entirely replaced with fossil fuels,

幾乎完全以化石燃料發電取代，

and so the consequence was that we wiped out

等同我們減少了

almost as much clean energy electricity that we get from solar.

與太陽能發電量 幾乎相同的清潔電能。

And it's not unique to us.

這不是特例。

People think of California as a clean energy and climate leader,

人們認為加州是潔淨能源和 對抗氣候變遷的領導者，

but when we looked at the data,

但是，當我們看了一下數據，

what we found is that, in fact,

我們發現的是：事實上，

California reduced emissions more slowly than the national average,

加州減少碳排放量速度 低於全國平均水準，

between 2000 and 2015.

在 2000 和 2015 年之間。

What about Germany?

至於德國呢？

They're doing a lot of clean energy.

他們有很多潔淨能源。

But when you look at the data,

但是，當你看一下數據，

German emissions have actually been going up since 2009,

德國的排放量居然 自 2009 年以來一直往上走，

and there's really not anybody who's going to tell you

真的沒有任何人能告訴你

that they're going to meet their climate commitments in 2020.

他們要怎麼達成 2020 年的減碳承諾。

The reason isn't hard to understand.

究其原因不難理解。

Solar and wind provide power about 10 to 20 percent of the time,

太陽能和風能可提供電能時間 約佔一天中 10％ 到 20％，

which means that when the sun's not shining,

這意味著當沒陽光照耀、風不吹拂，

the wind's not blowing,

you still need power for your hospitals,

但醫院、城市及工廠仍需要電力。

your homes, your cities, your factories.

And while batteries have made some really cool improvements lately,

電池在最近已經取得不小進步，

the truth is, they're just never going to be as efficient

事實是，電池永遠不會像 電網一樣有效率。

as the electrical grid.

Every time you put electricity into a battery and take it out,

每回你將電能以電池儲存後， 再次將它拿出來，

you lose about 20 to 40 percent of the power.

就會損失約 20% 至 40% 電能。

That's why when, in California,

這就是為什麼在加州

we try to deal with all the solar we've brought online --

我們試圖將太陽能與電網相連

we now get about 10 percent of electricity from solar --

我們現在約 10％ 電力 取自太陽能發電。

when the sun goes down, and people come home from work

當太陽下山、人們下班回家，

and turn on their air conditioners and their TV sets,

打開他們的空調、電視機，

and every other appliance in the house,

及屋裡其他電器，

we need a lot of natural gas backup.

我們需要大量的天然氣備載電力。

So what we've been doing

因此，我們一直將

is stuffing a lot of natural gas into the side of a mountain.

大量天然氣儲存於一座山中。

And that worked pretty well for a while,

but then late last year, it sprung a leak.

但去年年底，它不斷洩漏。

This is Aliso Canyon.

這是加州阿利索峽谷。

So much methane gas was released,

這麼多的甲烷氣外洩，

it was the equivalent of putting half a million cars on the road.

等於是相當於五千輛 汽車在道路行駛。

It basically blew through all of our climate commitments for the year.

它基本上已超出 我們全年的碳排放量承諾。

Well, what about India?

那麼，看看印度的情形？

Sometimes you have to go places to really get the right data,

有時你要得到正確的數據， 還不得不親自跑一趟。

so we traveled to India a few months ago.

因此，我們在幾個月前到訪印度。

We met with all the top officials -- solar, nuclear, the rest --

我們會見了所有的高級官員── 管太陽能、核能及其他種種──

and what they told us is,

他們告訴我們：

"We're actually having more serious problems

「我們實際上還有比德國和加州

than both Germany and California.

更嚴重的問題。

We don't have backup; we don't have all the natural gas.

我們沒有備載，沒有足量的天然氣。

And that's just the start of it.

而這只是開端，

Say we want to get to 100 gigawatts by 2022.

假設我們預計到 2022 年 達到 100 萬千瓦。

But last year we did just five,

但去年我們只建了 5 萬千瓦，

and the year before that, we did five."

而在這之前一年， 我們建了 5 萬千瓦。」

So, let's just take a closer look at nuclear.

所以，讓我們仔細審視核能。

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

聯合國政府間氣候變遷專門委員會

has looked at the carbon content of all these different fuels,

一直關注所有不同燃料的排碳量，

and nuclear comes out really low -- it's actually lower even than solar.

核能真的很低── 實際上甚至低於太陽能。

And nuclear obviously provides a lot of power --

而且明顯能提供了大量的電能──

24 hours a day, seven days a week.

每天 24 小時，每週七天。

During a year, a single plant can provide power 92 percent of the time.

一座核電廠一年中有 92％ 的時間可以提供電力。

What's interesting is that when you look at countries

有趣的是，當你看那些

that have deployed different kinds of clean energies,

已經發展各式潔淨能源的國家，

there's only a few that have done so

只有幾個在處理環境危機上

at a pace consistent with dealing with the climate crisis.

採取與治理環境一致的步伐。

So nuclear seems like a pretty good option,

but there's this big problem with it,

但是核能有個大問題，

which all of you, I'm sure, are aware of,

我敢肯定你們都知道的，

which is that people really don't like it.

就是人們真的不喜歡它。

There was a study, a survey done of people around the world,

大約一年半前有一項研究， 針對世界各地的人們，

not just in the United States or Europe,

不只是在美國或歐洲，

about a year and a half ago.

所進行的調查。

And what they found

is that nuclear is actually one of the least popular forms of energy.

核能是最不受歡迎的能源形式。

Even oil is more popular than nuclear.

And while nuclear kind of edges out coal, the thing is,

雖然核能替代了煤，但實情是，

people don't really fear coal in the same way they fear nuclear,

人並不像懼怕核能那樣害怕煤，

which really operates on our unconscious.

這確實在存在我們的潛意識中。

So what is it that we fear?

那麼，是什麼讓我們恐懼？

There's really three things.

有三件確定的事：

There's the safety of the plants themselves --

核電廠本身的安全──

the fears that they're going to melt down and cause damage;

害怕爐心熔化，造成損壞。

there's the waste from them;

其次是核電廠的核廢料。

and there's the association with weapons.

最後還有與核武器的關聯。

And I think, understandably,

我認為，這是可以理解的，

engineers look at those concerns and look for technological fixes.

工程師專注於這些疑慮， 並在技術上加以修正。

That's why Bill Gates is in China developing advanced reactors.

That's why 40 different entrepreneurs are working on this problem.

這就是為什麼 40 個不同的企業家 正在研究這個問題。

And I, myself, have been very excited about it.

而我自己，一直對此非常興奮。

We did a report: "How to Make Nuclear Cheap."

我們完成一份報告： 「如何使核能變便宜。」

In particular, the thorium reactor shows a lot of promise.

特別是，釷反應器 使很多事變得可行。

So when the climate scientist, James Hansen,

所以當氣候科學家詹姆斯·漢森

asked if I wanted to go to China with him

詢問我是否願意到與他到中國去，

and look at the Chinese advanced nuclear program,

並瞧瞧中國的先進核能計劃，

I jumped at the chance.

我立刻躍躍欲試。

We were there with MIT and UC Berkeley engineers.

我們與麻省理工和加大 柏克萊分校的工程師到那裡。

And I had in my mind

我腦中相信

that the Chinese would be able to do with nuclear

中國能夠將核能做起來。

what they did with so many other things --

就像他們已經完成的其他許多事情──

start to crank out small nuclear reactors on assembly lines,

開始在生產線上製出小型核反應器，

ship them up like iPhones or MacBooks and send them around the world.

把它們裝船像 iPhone 或 MacBook 筆電般運到世界各地。

I would get one at home in Berkeley.

我在柏克萊的家中也能弄到一個。

But what I found was somewhat different.

但我發現有些不同。

The presentations were all very exciting and very promising;

這些介紹都非常令人興奮 且覺得前途似錦。

they have multiple reactors that they're working on.

他們擁有多個反應器且正在運行，

The time came for the thorium reactor, and a bunch of us were excited.

介紹釷反應器時， 我們一幫人都很興奮。

They went through the whole presentation, they got to the timeline,

他們介紹完了，談到計畫時程時，

and they said,

他們說：

"We're going to have a thorium molten salt reactor

「我們不得不將釷熔鹽反應器

ready for sale to the world

上市的時間訂於

by 2040."

2040 年。」

And I was like, "What?"

我當時就像這樣──「啥？」

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

I looked at my colleagues and I was like,

我看了看我的同事，然後就像這樣，

"Excuse me --

「對不起──

can you guys speed that up a little bit?

Because we're in a little bit of a climate crisis right now.

因為我們現在有一點氣候危機，

And your cities are really polluted, by the way."

而且你們的城市污染真的很嚴重。」

And they responded back, they were like,

他們回應道，他們也想，

"I'm not sure what you've heard about our thorium program,

「我不知道你對我們的 釷計劃聽到了什麼，

but we don't have a third of our budget,

但我們連三分之一的預算都沒有，

and your department of energy hasn't been particularly forthcoming

你們的能源部好像也不是很主動

with all that data you guys have on testing reactors."

公開你們測試的反應器數據。」

And I said, "Well, I've got an idea.

我說：「嗯，我有一個想法。

You know how you've got 10 years where you're demonstrating that reactor?

你知道你們已經花了 10 年展示這反應器？

Let's just skip that part,

and let's just go right to commercializing it.

直接商業化。

That will save money and time."

這將節省時間和金錢。」

And the engineer just looked at me and said,

工程師看著我，說：

"Let me ask you a question:

「讓我問你一個問題：

Would you buy a car that had never been demonstrated before?"

你會買一輛從來沒有 展示過的汽車嗎？」

So what about the other reactors?

There's a reactor that's coming online now, they're starting to sell it.

也就說即將上線的反應器， 現在他們已經開始出售了。

It's a high-temperature gas reactor.

這是一個高溫氣體反應器。

It can't melt down.

它不會熔毀。

But it's really big and bulky, that's part of the safety,

但它確實又大又笨重， 這是安全的一部分，

and nobody thinks it's going to ever get cheaper

沒有人認為會有

than the reactors that we have.

比我們更便宜的反應器。

The ones that use waste as fuel are really cool ideas, but the truth is,

使用核廢料作為燃料 真的是很酷的想法，但事實是：

we don't actually know how to do that yet.

我們實際上並不知道該怎麼做。

There's some risk that you'll actually make more waste,

你要冒著實際上製造 更多核廢料的風險，

and most people think that if you're including

大多數人認為如果你把

that waste part of the process,

it's just going to make the whole machine a lot more expensive,

it's just adding another complicated step.

它只是增加另一個複雜的步驟。

The truth is,

事實是，

there's real questions about how much of that we're going to do.

有多少真正的問題是 我們要處理的。

I mean, we went to India and asked about the nuclear program.

我的意思是，我們去了印度， 並要求看核能計劃。

The government said before the Paris climate talks

政府表示，巴黎的氣候談判之前

that they were going to do something like 30 new nuclear plants.

他們打算做些什麼， 例如蓋 30 座新的核電廠。

But when we got there and interviewed people

但是，當我們到了那裡 並採訪相關人士

and even looked at the internal documents,

甚至看了看內部文件，

they're now saying they're going to do about five.

他們現在說大約要蓋 5 座。

And in most of the world, especially the rich world,

they're not talking about building new reactors.

他們不要建立新的核反應器。

We're actually talking about taking reactors down

我們實際上是在談論

在使用期限前將其除役。

before their lifetimes are over.

Germany's actually pressuring its neighbors to do that.

德國實際上正施壓鄰國這樣做。

I mentioned the United States --

我提到美國──

we could lose half of our reactors over the next 15 years,

在接下來的 15 年裡， 我們可能會關掉一半的反應器。

which would wipe out 40 percent of the emissions reductions

這將使碳排放減少 40％。

we're supposed to get under the Clean Power Plan.

前提是得全由潔淨能源取代才行。

Of course, in Japan, they took all their nuclear plants offline,

當然，在日本， 他們將所有的核電廠下線，

replaced them with coal, natural gas, oil burning,

and they're only expected to bring online about a third to two-thirds.

So when we went through the numbers,

and just added that up --

給它們算了算──

how much nuclear do we see China and India bringing online

接下來的 15 年裡，

over the next 15 years,

中國和印度將有多少核電廠上線，

how much do we see at risk of being taken offline --

有多少是有被下線的風險 。

this was the most startling finding.

What we found is that the world is actually at risk

我們發現的是， 世界其實是有風險可能失去

of losing four times more clean energy than we lost over the last 10 years.

4 倍於過去 10 年減少的潔淨能源。

In other words: we're not in a clean energy revolution;

換句話說：我們不處於 潔淨能源革命，

we're in a clean energy crisis.

So it's understandable that engineers would look for a technical fix

所以工程師將尋求技術性修正，

to the fears that people have of nuclear.

人們對核能的疑慮是可以理解的。

But when you consider that these are big challenges to do,

但是，當你考慮 這些都是巨大的挑戰，

that they're going to take a long time to solve,

他們要花費很長的時間來解決，

there's this other issue, which is:

還有這另一個問題，這就是：

Are those technical fixes really going to solve people's fears?

那些技術性修正 真的能解決人們的恐慌、

Let's take safety.

使我們感到安全嗎？

You know, despite what people think,

it's hard to figure out how to make nuclear power much safer.

還是很難弄清楚 如何才能使核電更加安全。

I mean, every medical journal that looks at it --

我的意思是，每本 探討這個問題的醫學期刊──

this is the most recent study from the British journal, "Lancet,"

這是英國醫學期刊 《刺胳針》最近的研究。

one of the most respected journals in the world --

這是世上最受尊敬的期刊之一。

nuclear is the safest way to make reliable power.

Everybody's scared of the accidents.

So you go look at the accident data --

所以，你去看看事故的數據──

Fukushima, Chernobyl --

福島、車諾比爾──

the World Health Organization finds the same thing:

the vast majority of harm is caused by people panicking,

and they're panicking because they're afraid.

他們恐慌，因為他們害怕。

In other words,

換一種說法，

the harm that's caused isn't actually caused by the machines

or the radiation.

或輻射。

It's caused by our fears.

它是恐懼。

And what about the waste?

那核廢料呢？

Everyone worries about the waste.

每個人都擔心核廢料。

Well, the interesting thing about the waste

好了，關於核廢料有趣的是：

is how little of it there is.

This is just from one plant.

If you take all the nuclear waste we've ever made in the United States,

如果你把所有我們美國生產的核廢料

put it on a football field, stacked it up,

放在足球場上堆積起來，

it would only reach 20 feet high.

它只會達到 6.1 公尺高。

And people say it's poisoning people or doing something --

人們說這會使人中毒 或造成一些事情。

it's not, it's just sitting there, it's just being monitored.

它不會，它只是放在那裡，

被監控著，就只是這樣而已。

There's not very much of it.

By contrast, the waste that we don't control from energy production --

相較之下，能源生產中 不受控制的廢料──

we call it "pollution," and it kills seven million people a year,

我們稱之為「污染」， 一年殺死七百萬人，

and it's threatening very serious levels of global warming.

並造成全球暖化的嚴重威脅。

And the truth is that even if we get good at using that waste as fuel,

而事實是，即使我們能 善用核廢物作為燃料，

there's always going to be some fuel left over.

總是有一些核燃料遺留下來。

That means there's always going to be people that think it's a big problem

這意味著有總是有人認為 這是一個大問題。

for reasons that maybe don't have as much to do with the actual waste

他們的顧慮也許和廢料 沒有多大的關係。

as we think.

Well, what about the weapons?

那麼，核電與核武的關聯呢？

也許最令人吃驚的事情是，

Maybe the most surprising thing is that we can't find any examples

我們找不到任何的例子， 有擁有核電的國家表示，

of countries that have nuclear power

「哦！」決定把核料變成核武。

and then, "Oh!" decide to go get a weapon.

In fact, it works the opposite.

What we find is the only way we know

我們發現目前所知， 能擺脫大量核武的唯一途徑，

how to get rid large numbers of nuclear weapons

is by using the plutonium in the warheads

就是將核武中的鈽彈頭

做為核電廠的燃料。

as fuel in our nuclear power plants.

And so, if you are wanting to get the world rid of nuclear weapons,

所以，如果你讓世界擺脫核武器，

then we're going to need a lot more nuclear power.

那麼我們會需要更大量的核電。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

As I was leaving China,

當我要離開中國時，

the engineer that brought Bill Gates there kind of pulled me aside,

帶比爾·蓋茨到那裡的 工程師把我拉到一邊，

and he said, "You know, Michael, I appreciate your interest

他說：「邁克爾我感謝你

in all the different nuclear supply technologies,

關注所有不同的核能供應技術，

but there's this more basic issue,

但眼前有更根本的問題，

which is that there's just not enough global demand.

我們的全球需求有限。

I mean, we can crank out these machines on assembly lines,

我的意思是，我們在 生產線組裝這些機器、

we do know how to make things cheap,

我們知道如何讓東西便宜，

but there's just not enough people that want them."

但只是沒有足夠的買主。」

And so, let's do solar and wind and efficiency and conservation.

所以，讓我們先改進太陽能 和風能的效率和保存。

Let's accelerate the advanced nuclear programs.

我們要加快先進核能計劃。

I think we should triple the amount of money we're spending on it.

我認為應該多花三倍錢就可以了。

但我認為當務之急是：

But I just think the most important thing,

if we're going to overcome the climate crisis,

如果我們要克服氣候危機，

is to keep in mind that the cause of the clean energy crisis

是要記住，引發潔淨能源危機的，

isn't from within our machines,

不是我們的機器，

it's from within ourselves.

這是我們內心的恐懼。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

(Applause)

（掌聲）