An urgent call to protect the world's "Third Pole" | Tshering Tobgay

翻译人员: Jenny Chen 校对人员: psjmz mz

On the 17th of October, 2009,

2009 年 10 月 17 日，

President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives did something unusual.

马尔代夫总统穆罕默德·纳希德 做出了一个不寻常的举动。

He held his cabinet meeting underwater.

他在水下召开了内阁会议。

He literally took his ministers scuba diving, as it were,

他和与会官员一起进行水肺潜水，

to warn the world that his country could drown

以警示世人，除非全球变暖得到控制，

unless we control global warming.

否则马尔代夫将被海水淹没。

Now I don't know whether he got his message across to the world or not,

虽然我不知道这一信息 是否被全世界的关注，

but he certainly caught mine.

但我确实注意到了。

I saw a political stunt.

在我看来，这是个政治噱头。

You see, I'm a politician,

大家知道我是个政治家，

and I notice these things.

因此会注意到这些事情。

And let's be honest,

实话实说，

the Maldives are distant from where I come from --

我来自不丹，

my country is Bhutan --

离马尔代夫很远，

so I didn't lose any sleep over their impending fate.

其不幸的命运并不会使我寝食难安。

Barely two months later, I saw another political stunt.

仅在两个月后， 我又看到了另一个政治噱头。

This time, the prime minister of Nepal,

这次是尼泊尔首相

he held his cabinet meeting on Mount Everest.

在珠峰上召开了内阁会议。

He took all his ministers all the way up to the base camp of Everest

他和部长一起登上了珠峰大本营

to warn the world

来警示世人

that the Himalayan glaciers were melting.

喜马拉雅的冰川正在消融。

Now did that worry me?

这次我该担心了吧？

You bet it did.

八九不离十吧。

I live in the Himalayas.

毕竟我就生活在喜马拉雅山麓。

But did I lose any sleep over his message?

但我寝食难安了吗？

No.

并没有。

I wasn't ready to let a political stunt interfere with my beauty sleep.

我才不要让一个政治噱头 搅了我的好梦。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Now fast-forward 10 years.

现在让我们快进十年。

In February this year,

今年二月份时，

I saw this report.

我看到了这份报道。

This here report basically concludes

其中主要提到了

that one-third of the ice on the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountains

兴都库什-喜马拉雅山区 三分之一的冰川

could melt by the end of the century.

在本世纪末之前将完全消融。

But that's only if,

但这发生的前提是，

if we are able to contain global warming

我们设法将全球变暖控制在

to 1.5 degrees centigrade over preindustrial levels.

比前工业时期水平高 1.5 摄氏度的范围内。

Otherwise, if we can't,

如果我们失败了，

the glaciers would melt much faster.

冰川将加速消融。

1.5 degrees Celsius. "No way," I thought.

1.5 度，我想，“这不可能。”

Even the Paris Agreement's ambitious targets

即使是巴黎协定也只是立志

aimed to limit global warming to two degrees centigrade.

把全球变暖控制在 2 摄氏度之内。

1.5 degrees centigrade is what they call the best-case scenario.

1.5 度只是个理想状态。

"Now this can't be true," I thought.

我想，“这不可能是真的。”

The Hindu Kush Himalaya region

兴都库什-喜马拉雅山地区

is the world's third-largest repository of ice,

拥有世界上第三多的冰川，

after the North and South Poles.

仅次于南北极。

That's why we are also called the "Third Pole."

因此得名“第三极”。

There's a lot of ice in the region.

该地区有大量冰川。

And yes, the glaciers, they are melting.

而冰川正在消融。

We know that.

这众所周知。

I have been to those in my country.

我去过那里。

I've seen them, and yes, they are melting.

亲眼所见，这些冰川的确正在消融。

They are vulnerable.

它们很脆弱。

"But they can't be that vulnerable," I remember thinking.

“但它们不可能这么脆弱。”

But what if they are?

如果真的是这样呢？

What if our glaciers melt much more quickly than I anticipate?

如果冰川比我预计的消融得更快呢？

What if our glaciers are much more vulnerable than previously thought?

如果冰川比我先前认为 的更不堪一击呢？

And what if, as a result, the glacial lakes --

如果那些由冰川融水

now these are lakes that form when glaciers melt --

形成的冰川湖

what if those lakes burst under the weight of additional water?

由于水量过剩而决堤呢？

And what if those floods cascade into other glacial lakes,

如果洪水涌进其他冰川湖

creating even bigger outbursts?

从而导致了更猛烈的决堤呢？

That would create unprecedented flash floods in my country.

在我的国家，这将造成 史无前例的洪灾，

That would wreck my country.

或将毁坏我的国家。

That would wreak havoc in my country.

造成混乱和失序。

That would have the potential to literally destroy our land,

可能摧毁土地、

our livelihood, our way of life.

生命以及生活。

So that report caught my attention

所以这个报道不同于别的政治噱头

in ways that political stunts couldn't.

引起了我的注意。

It was put together

该报道是由

by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, or ICIMOD,

总部设在尼泊尔的

which is based in Nepal.

国际山区综合开发中心（ICIMOD）发表的。

Scientists and experts have studied our glaciers for decades,

科学家们已经对冰川研究了几十年，

and their report kept me awake at night, agonizing about the bad news

他们的报道使我夜不能寐， 对这个坏消息焦虑不已，

and what it meant for my country

不断思考这对我的国家和人们

and my people.

意味着什么。

So after several sleepless nights,

因此在数个不能成眠的夜晚之后，

I went to Nepal to visit ICIMOD.

我去拜访了国际山区综合开发中心。

I found a team of highly competent and dedicated scientists there,

我遇到了一支由高水平的具有 奉献精神的科学家组成的队伍，

and here's what they told me.

他们告诉我。

Number one:

首先：

the Hindu Kush Himalaya glaciers have been melting for some time now.

兴都库什-喜马拉雅山地区 的冰川现在正在消融。

Take that glacier, for instance.

比方说，

It's on Mount Everest.

珠峰上的冰川。

As you can see, this once massive glacier has already lost much of its ice.

虽然曾经体量很大， 但现在却大大缩减了。

Number two:

其次：

the glaciers are now melting much more quickly --

现在冰川消融得更快了，

so quickly, in fact, that at just 1.5 degrees centigrade of global warming,

以至于如果气温上升 1.5 度

one-third of the glaciers would melt.

三分之一的冰川将会消失。

At two degrees centigrade of global warming,

气温上升 2 度，

half the glaciers would disappear.

一半的冰川将不复存在。

And if current trends were to continue,

如果该趋势持续下去，

a full two-thirds of our glaciers would vanish.

三分之二的冰川将不见踪影。

Number three:

第三：

global warming means that our mountains receive more rain and less snow ...

全球变暖还意味着山区降雨更多， 降雪却更少。

and, unlike snowfall, rain melts ice,

不同于降雪，雨水会融化冰，

which just hurts the health of our glaciers.

进一步危及冰川。

Number four:

第四：

pollution in the region has increased the amount of black carbon

该地区的污染使得黑碳排放增加，

that's deposited on our glaciers.

这些黑碳会沉积在冰川表面。

Black carbon is like soot.

和煤烟类似。

Black carbon absorbs heat

黑碳可以吸收热量

and just accelerates the melting of glaciers.

从而加速冰川消融。

To summarize,

总结一下，

our glaciers are melting rapidly,

冰川正在迅速消融，

and global warming is making them melt much more quickly.

全球变暖则加速了这一过程。

But what does this mean?

这意味着什么呢？

It means that the 240 million people

这表明住在兴都库什-喜马拉雅山地区的

who live in the Hindu Kush Himalaya region --

2 亿 4 千万人，

in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, China, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar

也就是居住在阿富汗、巴基斯坦、 中国、印度、尼泊尔、孟加拉国、缅甸

and my own beloved country, Bhutan --

以及我亲爱的祖国 ——不丹的人们——

these people will be directly affected.

将受到直接影响。

When glaciers melt,

当冰川消融，

when there's more rain and less snow,

降雨增加，降雪减少，

there will be huge changes in the way water behaves.

水的运作将发生重大变化。

There will be more extremes:

那会出现更多的极端情况：

more intense rain, more flash floods, more landslides,

这会带来更密集的降雨， 更频繁的暴洪和塌方，

more glacial lake outburst floods.

导致更多冰川湖泊决堤。

All this will cause unimaginable destruction

在这个已经有世界上部分 最贫穷的人口的地区，

in a region that already has some of the poorest people on earth.

其破坏力不可估量。

But it's not just the people in the immediate region

但不仅仅是上述地区的居民

who'll be affected.

会受到影响。

People living downstream will also be hit hard.

生活在下游的居民也将会受到影响。

That's because 10 of their major rivers

因为有 10 条主要河流

originate in the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountains.

都发源于兴都库什-喜马拉雅山地区。

These rivers provide critical water for agriculture

这些河流为生活在下游

and drinking water

的 16 亿居民带来了宝贵的

to more than 1.6 billion people living downstream.

农业用水和饮用水。

That's one in five humans.

该地区拥有世界上 1/5 的人口。

That's why the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountains

这就是为什么兴都库什-喜马拉雅山地区

are also called the "water towers of Asia."

也被誉为“亚洲水塔”的原因。

But when glaciers melt,

但倘若冰川消融，

when monsoons turn severe,

降雨量显著增加，

those rivers will obviously flood,

造成河流泛滥，

so there will be deluges when water is not required

带来不合时宜的暴雨。

and droughts will be very common,

在雨水少的季节，

when water is desperately required.

又产生经常性的旱灾。

In short, Asia's water tower will be broken,

总之，亚洲水塔的崩坏

and that will be disastrous for one-fifth of humanity.

会为世界 1/5 的人口 带来灾难性的后果。

Should the rest of the world care?

世界上的其他人应该关心吗？

Should you, for instance, care?

你应该关心吗？

Remember, I didn't care when I heard that the Maldives

还记得吗，在听到马尔代夫 即将消失的不幸时

could disappear underwater.

我漠不关心。

And that is the crux of the problem, isn't it?

但这正是问题的关键，不是吗？

We don't care.

除非我们个人受到了影响，

We don't care until we are personally affected.

否则我们从不关心。

I mean, we know. We know climate change is real.

我是说，我们都知道， 都了解全球变暖是真实的。

We know that we face drastic and dramatic change.

明白我们将经历翻天覆地的改变。

We know that it is coming fast.

懂得这一天很快就会到来。

Yet most of us

然而我们大多数人

act as if everything were normal.

表现得好像什么都没发生一样。

So we must care,

但我们所有人，

all of us,

必须关心，

and if you can't care for those who are affected by the melting of glaciers,

即使你不关心那些正在 遭受冰川消融之害的人们，

you should at least care for yourself.

你至少应该关心自己。

That's because the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountains --

因为兴都库什-喜马拉雅山地区

the entire region is like the pulse of the planet.

就好像是整个地球的脉搏。

If the region falls sick,

如果这个地区病入膏肓，

the entire planet will eventually suffer.

整个地球都不会好过。

And right now,

现在，

with our glaciers melting rapidly,

这个冰川正在迅速消融的地方，

the region is not just sick --

这个还有药可医的地区，

it is crying out for help.

正在祈求着帮助。

And how will it affect the rest of the world?

它会对世界上其他地方 造成什么样的影响呢？

One obvious scenario is the potential destabilization

一个明显的可能情景就是潜在的不稳定

caused by tens of millions of climate refugees,

将会带来成百上千万的气候难民。

who'll be forced to move because they have no or little water,

冰川消融造成的水资源短缺

or because their livelihoods have been destroyed

或者生计被毁，

by the melting of glaciers.

使得他们不得不离开故土。

Another scenario we can't take lightly

另一个不能忽视的情况

is the potential of conflict over water

是三个拥有核武器的国家，

and the political destabilization in a region that has three nuclear powers:

可能会因冰川消融形成潜在 的水资源冲突和政治动荡：

China, India, Pakistan.

它们是中国、印度和巴基斯坦。

I believe that the situation in our region is grave enough

我相信既然我们这个地区 的情况已经如此糟糕，

to warrant the creation of a new intergovernmental agency.

一个政府间代理机构 的创立势在必行。

So as a native from that part of the world,

作为该地区的一份子，

I want to propose here, today,

今天在这里，我想提出倡议，

the establishment of the Third Pole Council,

建立一个“第三极委员会”，

a high-level, intergovernmental organization

以这个政府间的高级别合作机构

tasked with the singular responsibility

来肩负保护世界第三大冰川容量的

of protecting the world's third-largest repository of ice.

这个重大责任。

A Third Pole Council

该“第三极委员会”

would consist of all eight countries located in the region

将会吸纳该地区的所有八个国家

as member countries,

作为成员国，

as equal member countries,

地位平等的成员国，

and could also include representative organizations

并接受在该地区有相关切身利益的国家

and other countries who have vested interests in the region

和代表性组织

as non-voting members.

作为无表决权成员。

But the big idea

但大的理念

is to get all stakeholders together to work together.

是让所有利益相关团体共同协作，

To work together to monitor the health of the glaciers;

关注冰川现状

to work together to shape and implement policies to protect our glaciers,

制定和贯彻保护冰川的政策，

and, by extension,

跟进一步，

to protect the billions of people who depend on our glaciers.

保护那些赖以生存的几十亿人民。

We have to work together,

我们必须共同努力，

because thinking globally, acting locally ...

因为全球思考，地方行动

does not work.

只会收效甚微。

We've tried that in Bhutan.

在不丹已经有过类似的尝试

We've made immense sacrifices to act locally ...

我们为地方行动做出了很大的牺牲，

and while individual localized efforts will continue to be important,

然而尽管个体地方化的努力很重要，

they cannot stand up to the onslaught of climate change.

但他们个体的力量却无法 与全球气候变暖抗衡。

To stand up to climate change, we must work together.

因此，为应对气候变暖， 我们必须共同努力。

We must think globally and act regionally.

必须全球思考，区域行动。

Our entire region must come together,

整个地区都必须携起手来，

to work together,

共同努力，

to fight climate change together,

共同抵御气候变暖，

to make our voices heard together.

让世界听到我们的诉求。

And that includes India and China.

中国和印度

They must step up their game.

也需要参与进来。

They must take the ownership of the fight to protect our glaciers.

他们必须共同保护冰川。

And for that, these two countries, these two powerful giants,

与此同时，这两大国家

must reduce their own greenhouse gases,

也必须减少温室气体排放，

control their pollution, and lead the fight.

控制污染，起带头作用。

Lead the global fight against climate change.

领导全球对抗气候变暖的斗争。

And all that with a renewed sense of urgency.

这件事迫在眉睫。

Only then -- and that, too, only maybe --

只有这样，

will our region

这个区域

and other regions that depend on our glaciers

和依赖于冰川的其他区域

have any chance to avoid major catastrophes.

才有可能避免重大灾难。

Time is running out.

时间有限。

We must act together, now.

现在亟待行动。

Otherwise, the next time Nepal's cabinet meets on Mount Everest,

否则，下次尼泊尔在珠峰召开的内阁会议

that spectacular backdrop ...

其背景

may look quite different.

将会大不相同。

And if that happens,

如果这真的发生了，

if our glaciers melt,

冰川消融

rising sea levels could well drown the Maldives.

造成的海平面上升将淹没马尔代夫，

And while they can hold their cabinet meetings underwater

而只有当马尔代夫还继续存在，

to send an SOS to the world,

他们在水下召开的

their country can keep existing

向全世界呼救的内阁会议

only if their islands keep existing.

才得以发生。

The Maldives are still distant, away.

马尔代夫依旧很远。

Their islands are distant from where I live.

依旧和不丹远隔重洋。

But now, I pay close attention to what happens out there.

但现在我却在密切关注那里发生了什么。

Thank you very much.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）