An urgent call to protect the world's "Third Pole" | Tshering Tobgay

Prevoditelj: Senzos Osijek Recezent: Sanda L

On the 17th of October, 2009,

17. listopada 2009. godine

President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives did something unusual.

predsjednik Maldiva Mohamed Nasheed učinio je nešto neobično.

He held his cabinet meeting underwater.

Održao je sastanak svog kabineta pod vodom.

He literally took his ministers scuba diving, as it were,

Odveo je svoje ministre roneći,

to warn the world that his country could drown

kako bi upozorio svijet da bi njegova zemlja mogla biti potopljena

unless we control global warming.

ako ne počnemo kontrolirati globalno zatopljenje.

Now I don't know whether he got his message across to the world or not,

Ne znam je li njegova poruka obišla svijet ili nije,

but he certainly caught mine.

ali je definitivno stigla do mene.

I saw a political stunt.

Vidio sam taj politički pothvat.

You see, I'm a politician,

I sȃm sam političar

and I notice these things.

te primjećujem ovakve vijesti.

And let's be honest,

Iskreno,

the Maldives are distant from where I come from --

Maldivi su daleko od mjesta gdje živim,

my country is Bhutan --

živim u Butanu,

so I didn't lose any sleep over their impending fate.

tako da mi vijest o sudbini Maldiva nije poremetila san.

Barely two months later, I saw another political stunt.

Dva mjeseca poslije, vidio sam drugi politički pothvat.

This time, the prime minister of Nepal,

Ovaj put je premijer Nepala

he held his cabinet meeting on Mount Everest.

održao sastanak na Mount Everestu.

He took all his ministers all the way up to the base camp of Everest

Odveo je svoje ministre do kampa u podnožju Mount Everesta

to warn the world

kako bi upozorio svijet

that the Himalayan glaciers were melting.

da se ledenjaci na Himalaji otapaju.

Now did that worry me?

Je li me to zabrinulo?

You bet it did.

Bogme jeste.

I live in the Himalayas.

Živim na Himalaji.

But did I lose any sleep over his message?

Jesam li imao besane noći zbog ove poruke?

No.

Ne.

I wasn't ready to let a political stunt interfere with my beauty sleep.

Nisam htio dopustiti da mi politički pothvat remeti snove.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Now fast-forward 10 years.

Deset godina kasnije,

In February this year,

u veljači ove godine,

I saw this report.

vidio sam ovo izvješće.

This here report basically concludes

To izvješće je pokazalo

that one-third of the ice on the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountains

da bi se jedna trećina leda planine Hindu Kush na Himalaji

could melt by the end of the century.

mogla otopiti do kraja stoljeća,

But that's only if,

ali jedino ako

if we are able to contain global warming

uspijemo zadržati globalno zatopljenje

to 1.5 degrees centigrade over preindustrial levels.

na 1,5 stupanj Celzija iznad predindustrijske razine.

Otherwise, if we can't,

Ako to ne uspijemo,

the glaciers would melt much faster.

ledenjaci će se topiti puno brže.

1.5 degrees Celsius. "No way," I thought.

1,5 stupnjeva Celzija. "Nema šanse", pomislio sam.

Even the Paris Agreement's ambitious targets

Čak i Pariški sporazum

aimed to limit global warming to two degrees centigrade.

pokušava ograničiti globalno zatopljenje na dva stupnja Celzija.

1.5 degrees centigrade is what they call the best-case scenario.

1,5 stupnjeva Celzija je najbolji mogući scenarij.

"Now this can't be true," I thought.

"Ovo ne može biti istina", pomislio sam.

The Hindu Kush Himalaya region

Regija Himalaje Hindu Kush

is the world's third-largest repository of ice,

treća je na svijetu po količini leda,

after the North and South Poles.

nakon Sjevernog i Južnog pola.

That's why we are also called the "Third Pole."

Zato je još zovemo i "Treći pol".

There's a lot of ice in the region.

Regija je puna leda

And yes, the glaciers, they are melting.

i ti ledenjaci se tope.

We know that.

To znamo.

I have been to those in my country.

Obišao sam ledenjake u svojoj državi.

I've seen them, and yes, they are melting.

Vidio sam ih, i da, tope se.

They are vulnerable.

Sve su slabiji.

"But they can't be that vulnerable," I remember thinking.

"Ali ne mogu biti tako slabi", pomislio sam.

But what if they are?

Ali što ako jesu?

What if our glaciers melt much more quickly than I anticipate?

Što ako se naši ledenjaci tope puno brže nego što pretpostavljamo?

What if our glaciers are much more vulnerable than previously thought?

Što ako su naši ledenjaci puno slabiji nego što smo prethodno mislili?

And what if, as a result, the glacial lakes --

I što ako ledenjačka jezera,

now these are lakes that form when glaciers melt --

jezera koja nastaju otapanjem ledenjaka,

what if those lakes burst under the weight of additional water?

što ako jezera preplave zbog sve dodatne vode?

And what if those floods cascade into other glacial lakes,

I što ako te poplave dođu do drugih ledenjačkih jezera,

creating even bigger outbursts?

praveći još veće poplave?

That would create unprecedented flash floods in my country.

To bi stvorilo nezamislive poplave u mojoj državi.

That would wreck my country.

To bi naštetilo mojoj državi.

That would wreak havoc in my country.

To bi dosta naštetilo mojoj državi.

That would have the potential to literally destroy our land,

To bi potencijalno uništilo našu zemlju,

our livelihood, our way of life.

naša naselja, naš način života.

So that report caught my attention

To izvješće me zaokupilo

in ways that political stunts couldn't.

na način na koji politički pothvati nisu uspjeli.

It was put together

Izvješće je izdao

by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, or ICIMOD,

Međunarodni centar za integrirani planinski razvoj, ili ICIMOD,

which is based in Nepal.

sa središtem u Nepalu.

Scientists and experts have studied our glaciers for decades,

Znanstvenici i stručnjaci su proučavali ledenjake desetljećima,

and their report kept me awake at night, agonizing about the bad news

i to izvješće me držalo noću budnim, razmišljajući o lošim vijestima

and what it meant for my country

i što to znači za moju državu

and my people.

i moje ljude.

So after several sleepless nights,

Nakon nekoliko neprospavanih noći,

I went to Nepal to visit ICIMOD.

otišao sam u Nepal posjetiti ICIMOD.

I found a team of highly competent and dedicated scientists there,

Našao sam tim sposobnih znanstvenika posvećenih poslu,

and here's what they told me.

i rekli su mi ovo.

Number one:

Prvo:

the Hindu Kush Himalaya glaciers have been melting for some time now.

ledenjaci regije Hindu Kush se otapaju već neko vrijeme.

Take that glacier, for instance.

Na primjer, ovaj ledenjak.

It's on Mount Everest.

On je dio Mount Everesta.

As you can see, this once massive glacier has already lost much of its ice.

Kao što vidite, ovaj masivni ledenjak već je izgubio dosta mase.

Number two:

Drugo:

the glaciers are now melting much more quickly --

ledenjaci se sad tope puno brže,

so quickly, in fact, that at just 1.5 degrees centigrade of global warming,

toliko brzo da će i globalno zatopljenje od 1,5 stupnjeva Celzija

one-third of the glaciers would melt.

otopiti trećinu ledenjaka.

At two degrees centigrade of global warming,

Dva stupnja Celzija globalnog zatopljenja,

half the glaciers would disappear.

i pola ledenjaka će nestati.

And if current trends were to continue,

I ako se sadašnje stanje nastavi,

a full two-thirds of our glaciers would vanish.

dvije trećine ledenjaka će nestati.

Number three:

Treće:

global warming means that our mountains receive more rain and less snow ...

globalno zatopljenje znači da će u planinama biti više kiše a manje snijega,

and, unlike snowfall, rain melts ice,

i, dok snijeg ne topi, kiša topi led,

which just hurts the health of our glaciers.

što će oslabiti naše ledenjake.

Number four:

Četvrto:

pollution in the region has increased the amount of black carbon

zagađenje regije je povećalo razinu ugljika

that's deposited on our glaciers.

koji se zadržava u našim ledenjacima.

Black carbon is like soot.

Ugljik je poput pepela.

Black carbon absorbs heat

Upija toplinu

and just accelerates the melting of glaciers.

te ubrzava otapanje ledenjaka.

To summarize,

Ukratko,

our glaciers are melting rapidly,

naši ledenjaci se otapaju brzo,

and global warming is making them melt much more quickly.

a globalno zatopljenje ih otapa puno brže.

But what does this mean?

Što to znači?

It means that the 240 million people

To znači da preko 240 milijuna ljudi

who live in the Hindu Kush Himalaya region --

koji žive u regiji Hindu Kush,

in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, China, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar

u Afganistanu, Pakistanu, Indiji, Kini, Nepalu, Bangladešu, Burmi

and my own beloved country, Bhutan --

i u mojoj državi, Butanu,

these people will be directly affected.

ovi ljudi će biti izravno zahvaćeni.

When glaciers melt,

Kad se ledenjaci otope,

when there's more rain and less snow,

kada je više kiše a manje snijega,

there will be huge changes in the way water behaves.

doći će do promjene u kruženju vode.

There will be more extremes:

Bit će više ekstrema:

more intense rain, more flash floods, more landslides,

intenzivnije kiše, više poplava, više klizišta,

more glacial lake outburst floods.

više preplavljanja ledenjačkih jezera.

All this will cause unimaginable destruction

Sve to će dovesti do nezamislivih razaranja

in a region that already has some of the poorest people on earth.

u regiji gdje već žive jedni od najsiromašnijih ljudi na Zemlji.

But it's not just the people in the immediate region

Ali neće biti zahvaćeni samo ljudi

who'll be affected.

koji žive u ovoj regiji.

People living downstream will also be hit hard.

Ljudi koji žive nizvodno će također biti zahvaćeni.

That's because 10 of their major rivers

To je stoga što deset velikih rijeka ima polazište

originate in the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountains.

u regiji Hindu Kush na Himalaji.

These rivers provide critical water for agriculture

Rijeke su bitne za agroekonomiju

and drinking water

i pitku vodu,

to more than 1.6 billion people living downstream.

za više od 1,6 milijarde ljudi koji žive nizvodno.

That's one in five humans.

To je svaki peti čovjek.

That's why the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountains

Zato se Hindu Kush regija Himalaje

are also called the "water towers of Asia."

naziva i "Vodeni toranj Azije".

But when glaciers melt,

Ali kad se ledenjaci otope,

when monsoons turn severe,

kad monsuni postanu žešći,

those rivers will obviously flood,

rijeke će preplaviti,

so there will be deluges when water is not required

dovest će do potopa kada voda nije potrebna,

and droughts will be very common,

a razdoblja suše će biti česta

when water is desperately required.

kada je ta voda nužno potrebna.

In short, Asia's water tower will be broken,

Ukratko, Vodeni toranj Azije će pasti

and that will be disastrous for one-fifth of humanity.

i to će biti katastrofa za svakog petog čovjeka.

Should the rest of the world care?

Treba li ostatak svijeta brinuti?

Should you, for instance, care?

Trebate li se vi brinuti?

Remember, I didn't care when I heard that the Maldives

Sjetite se, ja nisam brinuo kad sam čuo da bi Maldivi

could disappear underwater.

mogli nestati pod vodom.

And that is the crux of the problem, isn't it?

I to je srž problema, zar ne?

We don't care.

Ne brinemo.

We don't care until we are personally affected.

Ne brinemo dok to nije naš osobni problem.

I mean, we know. We know climate change is real.

Mi znamo da je promjena klime svarna.

We know that we face drastic and dramatic change.

Znamo da se suočavamo s drastičnim promjenama.

We know that it is coming fast.

Znamo da nas to uskoro očekuje.

Yet most of us

Ipak, većina nas

act as if everything were normal.

se ponaša kao da je sve normalno.

So we must care,

Moramo se brinuti,

all of us,

svi mi,

and if you can't care for those who are affected by the melting of glaciers,

i ako ne možete brinuti za one koje topljenje ledenjaka zahvaća,

you should at least care for yourself.

brinite se barem za sebe.

That's because the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountains --

To je zbog toga što je Hindu Kush regija Himalaje

the entire region is like the pulse of the planet.

poput pulsa planeta.

If the region falls sick,

Ako je regija bolesna,

the entire planet will eventually suffer.

cijeli planet će s vremenom patiti.

And right now,

A trenutno,

with our glaciers melting rapidly,

kako se ledenjaci brzo tope,

the region is not just sick --

regija nije samo oboljela,

it is crying out for help.

nego vapi za pomoći.

And how will it affect the rest of the world?

Kako će to utjecati na ostatak svijeta?

One obvious scenario is the potential destabilization

Očigledni scenarij je potencijalna nestabilnost

caused by tens of millions of climate refugees,

uzrokovana desecima milijuna klimatskih izbjeglica

who'll be forced to move because they have no or little water,

koji će se morati iseliti zbog manjka vode,

or because their livelihoods have been destroyed

ili jer su njihova naselja uništena

by the melting of glaciers.

otapanjem ledenjaka.

Another scenario we can't take lightly

Drugi scenarij koji je ozbiljniji

is the potential of conflict over water

je potencijalni rat za vodu

and the political destabilization in a region that has three nuclear powers:

i politička nestabilnost u regiji u kojoj su tri nuklearne sile:

China, India, Pakistan.

Kina, Indija, Pakistan.

I believe that the situation in our region is grave enough

Vjerujem da je situacija u našoj regiji dovoljno teška

to warrant the creation of a new intergovernmental agency.

da dovede do stvaranja nove međuvladine agencije.

So as a native from that part of the world,

Dolazim iz te regije svijeta

I want to propose here, today,

i htio bih danas predložiti

the establishment of the Third Pole Council,

osnivanje Vijeća trećeg pola,

a high-level, intergovernmental organization

međuvladinu organizaciju na visokoj razini,

tasked with the singular responsibility

čiji je jedini zadatak

of protecting the world's third-largest repository of ice.

zaštita trećeg po veličini područja prekrivenog ledom.

A Third Pole Council

Vijeće trećeg pola

would consist of all eight countries located in the region

sastojalo bi se od svih osam država koje se nalaze u regiji,

as member countries,

bile bi članice,

as equal member countries,

bile bi ravnopravne članice,

and could also include representative organizations

a mogle bi se, također, uključiti organizacije

and other countries who have vested interests in the region

i druge države koje imaju interes za ovu regiju

as non-voting members.

kao članice bez prava glasovanja.

But the big idea

Ideja je

is to get all stakeholders together to work together.

okupiti sve članove kako bi radili zajedno,

To work together to monitor the health of the glaciers;

kako bi pratili zdravlje naših ledenjaka,

to work together to shape and implement policies to protect our glaciers,

kako bi donijeli i proveli politiku zaštite naših ledenjaka,

and, by extension,

i time

to protect the billions of people who depend on our glaciers.

zaštitili milijarde ljudi koji ovise o tim ledenjacima.

We have to work together,

Moramo raditi zajedno

because thinking globally, acting locally ...

jer "Misli globalno, djeluj lokalno"

does not work.

ne djeluje.

We've tried that in Bhutan.

Pokušali smo to u Butanu.

We've made immense sacrifices to act locally ...

Dosta smo žrtvovali kako bismo djelovali lokalno...

and while individual localized efforts will continue to be important,

I iako nam je lokalna politika i dalje bitna,

they cannot stand up to the onslaught of climate change.

ona neće zaustaviti napad klimatskih promjena.

To stand up to climate change, we must work together.

Za borbu protiv klimatskih promjena, moramo raditi zajedno.

We must think globally and act regionally.

Moramo razmišljati globalno i djelovati regionalno.

Our entire region must come together,

Cijela naša regija mora se okupiti,

to work together,

raditi zajedno,

to fight climate change together,

kako bismo se borili protiv klimatskih promjena,

to make our voices heard together.

kako bi se naš zajednički glas čuo.

And that includes India and China.

To uključuje Indiju i Kinu.

They must step up their game.

Moraju početi djelovati.

They must take the ownership of the fight to protect our glaciers.

Moraju zauzeti mjesto u borbi za zaštitu naših ledenjaka.

And for that, these two countries, these two powerful giants,

Kako bi to uspjeli, ove dvije moćne države

must reduce their own greenhouse gases,

moraju smanjiti količinu svojih stakleničkih plinova,

control their pollution, and lead the fight.

kontrolirati onečišćenje i voditi borbu.

Lead the global fight against climate change.

Voditi globalnu borbu protiv klimatskih promjena.

And all that with a renewed sense of urgency.

I sve to uz osjećaj hitnosti.

Only then -- and that, too, only maybe --

Jedino tada, možda,

will our region

će naša regija

and other regions that depend on our glaciers

i druge regije koje ovise o našim ledenjacima

have any chance to avoid major catastrophes.

imati izgleda izbjeći veliku katastrofu.

Time is running out.

Vrijeme istječe.

We must act together, now.

Moramo djelovati zajedno, sada.

Otherwise, the next time Nepal's cabinet meets on Mount Everest,

U suprotnom, sljedeći put kada se kabinet Nepala sastane na Mount Everestu,

that spectacular backdrop ...

ova prekrasna pozadina

may look quite different.

možda bude izgledala drugačije.

And if that happens,

I ako se to desi,

if our glaciers melt,

ako se naši ledenjaci otope,

rising sea levels could well drown the Maldives.

razine mora bi mogle potopiti Maldive.

And while they can hold their cabinet meetings underwater

I iako mogu održati sastanak kabineta pod vodom

to send an SOS to the world,

kako bi poslali svijetu poziv za pomoć,

their country can keep existing

njihova država može postojati

only if their islands keep existing.

jedino ako otok postoji.

The Maldives are still distant, away.

Maldivi su daleko.

Their islands are distant from where I live.

Njihovi otoci su daleko od mjesta gdje živim,

But now, I pay close attention to what happens out there.

ali sad se obazirem na to što se dešava kod njih.

Thank you very much.

Mnogo vam hvala.

(Pljesak)

(Applause)