An urgent call to protect the world's "Third Pole" | Tshering Tobgay

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Melody Tang

On the 17th of October, 2009,

2009 年 10 月 17 日，

President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives did something unusual.

馬爾地夫的總統穆罕默德納希德 做了一件不尋常的事。

He held his cabinet meeting underwater.

他在水底下進行他的內閣會議。

He literally took his ministers scuba diving, as it were,

他真的帶他的部長們 戴水肺去潛水，

to warn the world that his country could drown

用意是要警告世界， 若我們不控制好全球暖化，

unless we control global warming.

他的國家將會沉入水中。

Now I don't know whether he got his message across to the world or not,

我不知道他的訊息 是否有傳遞到全世界，

but he certainly caught mine.

但他肯定引起了我的注意。

I saw a political stunt.

我看到的是政治噱頭。

You see, I'm a politician,

要知道，我是政治家，

and I notice these things.

我會注意這方面的事。

And let's be honest,

坦白說，

the Maldives are distant from where I come from --

馬爾地夫離我的家鄉很遠——

my country is Bhutan --

我來自不丹——

so I didn't lose any sleep over their impending fate.

他們即將面臨的命運 並不會讓我睡不著覺。

Barely two months later, I saw another political stunt.

大約兩個月後，我又看到了 另一個政治噱頭。

This time, the prime minister of Nepal,

這次，是尼泊爾的首相，

he held his cabinet meeting on Mount Everest.

他在聖母峰舉行他的內閣會議。

He took all his ministers all the way up to the base camp of Everest

他把他的部長通通帶上山， 帶到聖母峰的基地營，

to warn the world

以警告世界

that the Himalayan glaciers were melting.

喜瑪拉雅冰河正在融化。

Now did that worry me?

那會讓我擔心嗎？

You bet it did.

絕對有。

I live in the Himalayas.

我住在喜馬拉雅山脈。

But did I lose any sleep over his message?

但我有因為他的訊息 而睡不著覺嗎？

No.

沒有。

I wasn't ready to let a political stunt interfere with my beauty sleep.

我還沒準備要讓政治噱頭 影響我睡美容覺。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Now fast-forward 10 years.

再快轉十年。

In February this year,

今年二月，

I saw this report.

我看到這份報告。

This here report basically concludes

基本上，這份報告的結論是，

that one-third of the ice on the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountains

興都庫什喜瑪拉雅的 山脈上有三分之一的冰

could melt by the end of the century.

在這個世紀末可能會融化。

But that's only if,

但有個前提，

if we are able to contain global warming

前提是我們能夠控制住全球暖化，

to 1.5 degrees centigrade over preindustrial levels.

不要比工業化前的溫度 高出攝氏 1.5 度。

Otherwise, if we can't,

否則，如果我們辦不到，

the glaciers would melt much faster.

冰河融化的速度會快更多。

1.5 degrees Celsius. "No way," I thought.

攝氏 1.5 度。 我心想：「不可能。」

Even the Paris Agreement's ambitious targets

就連巴黎協議那麼有野心的目標，

aimed to limit global warming to two degrees centigrade.

也是設定在將全球暖化 限制在攝氏 2 度之內。

1.5 degrees centigrade is what they call the best-case scenario.

攝氏 1.5 度是他們所謂的 「最好的情況」。

"Now this can't be true," I thought.

我心想：「這不可能是真的。」

The Hindu Kush Himalaya region

興都庫什喜馬拉雅區域

is the world's third-largest repository of ice,

是世界上第三大的冰庫，

after the North and South Poles.

僅次於北極和南極。

That's why we are also called the "Third Pole."

那就是為什麼我們稱它為第三極。

There's a lot of ice in the region.

那個區域中有相當多冰。

And yes, the glaciers, they are melting.

且，是的，冰河在融化。

We know that.

我們知道這一點。

I have been to those in my country.

我去過在我國家中的那些冰河。 我看過，是的，它們在融化。

I've seen them, and yes, they are melting.

它們很脆弱。

They are vulnerable.

"But they can't be that vulnerable," I remember thinking.

我還記得我心想： 「但它們不可能那麼脆弱。」

But what if they are?

但如果就是那麼脆弱呢？

What if our glaciers melt much more quickly than I anticipate?

如果我們的冰河融化速度 比我所預期的還要快許多呢？

What if our glaciers are much more vulnerable than previously thought?

如果我們的冰河比之前 認為的還要脆弱許多呢？

And what if, as a result, the glacial lakes --

如果，結果是，冰川湖——

now these are lakes that form when glaciers melt --

也就是當冰河融化時 所形成的湖——

what if those lakes burst under the weight of additional water?

如果承受不住額外的水重量， 那些湖潰決了呢？

And what if those floods cascade into other glacial lakes,

如果那些洪水衝入其他冰川湖中，

creating even bigger outbursts?

造成更大的潰決呢？

That would create unprecedented flash floods in my country.

那會在我的國家造成 前所未有的瞬間水災。

That would wreck my country.

那會破壞我的國家。

That would wreak havoc in my country.

會在我的國家造成浩劫。

That would have the potential to literally destroy our land,

有可能真的會摧毀我們的土地、

our livelihood, our way of life.

我們的生計、我們的生活方式。

So that report caught my attention

所以那份報告引起了我的注意，

in ways that political stunts couldn't.

是那些政治噱頭辦不到的。

It was put together

統整這份報告的

by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, or ICIMOD,

是國際山地綜合開發中心， 縮寫為 ICIMOD，

which is based in Nepal.

位在尼泊爾。

Scientists and experts have studied our glaciers for decades,

數十年來，科學家和專家 都在研究我們的冰河，

and their report kept me awake at night, agonizing about the bad news

他們的報告讓我晚上無法入睡， 煩惱著這則壞消息，

and what it meant for my country

以及它對我的國家 和我的人民會有什麼影響。

and my people.

So after several sleepless nights,

在許多無法入眠的夜晚之後，

I went to Nepal to visit ICIMOD.

我前往尼泊爾，去拜訪 ICIMOD。

I found a team of highly competent and dedicated scientists there,

那裡有一個團隊，成員都是 很厲害且很投入的科學家，

and here's what they told me.

他們告訴我的如下：

Number one:

第一：

the Hindu Kush Himalaya glaciers have been melting for some time now.

興都庫什喜瑪拉雅冰河的 融化已經有一段時間了。

Take that glacier, for instance.

以那條冰河為例。

It's on Mount Everest.

它位在聖母峰上。

As you can see, this once massive glacier has already lost much of its ice.

各位可以看見，這條曾經很壯觀的 大型冰河已經失去了很多冰。

Number two:

第二：

the glaciers are now melting much more quickly --

現在冰河融化的速度更快許多——

so quickly, in fact, that at just 1.5 degrees centigrade of global warming,

快到就算全球暖化 只有提升攝氏 1.5 度，

one-third of the glaciers would melt.

三分之一的冰河仍然會融化。

At two degrees centigrade of global warming,

若全球暖化上升攝氏 2 度，

half the glaciers would disappear.

冰河有一半會消失。

And if current trends were to continue,

如果目前的趨勢持續下去，

a full two-thirds of our glaciers would vanish.

整整三分之二的冰河會不見。

Number three:

第三：

global warming means that our mountains receive more rain and less snow ...

全球暖化意味著我們的山脈 會接收到比較多雨、比較少雪……

and, unlike snowfall, rain melts ice,

和降雪不同，雨會融化冰，

which just hurts the health of our glaciers.

這麼一來就會傷害到冰河的健康。

Number four:

第四：

pollution in the region has increased the amount of black carbon

這個區域中的污染，

造成沉澱在冰河上的黑碳量增加。

that's deposited on our glaciers.

Black carbon is like soot.

黑碳就像是煤煙。黑碳會吸收熱，

Black carbon absorbs heat

and just accelerates the melting of glaciers.

加速冰河的融化。

To summarize,

總的來說，

our glaciers are melting rapidly,

我們的冰河在以很快的速度融化，

and global warming is making them melt much more quickly.

全球暖化讓它們的融化更加快速。

But what does this mean?

但，這意味著什麼？

It means that the 240 million people

這意味著住在 興都庫什喜瑪拉雅區域的

who live in the Hindu Kush Himalaya region --

兩億四千萬人——

in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, China, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar

包括阿富汗、巴基斯坦、印度、

中國、尼泊爾、 孟加拉共和國、緬甸，

and my own beloved country, Bhutan --

和我自己珍愛的祖國，不丹——

these people will be directly affected.

住在這個區域的人會直接受影響。

When glaciers melt,

當冰河融化時，

when there's more rain and less snow,

當降雨變多、降雪變少時，

there will be huge changes in the way water behaves.

水的行為也會有很大的改變。

There will be more extremes:

會有更多的極端現象：

more intense rain, more flash floods, more landslides,

更劇烈的雨勢、 更急促的洪水、更多山崩，

more glacial lake outburst floods.

更多冰川湖潰決洪水。

All this will cause unimaginable destruction

這些都會對這個區域 造成無法想像的毀滅，

in a region that already has some of the poorest people on earth.

而世界上最貧窮的人口當中 有一些就在這個區域中。

But it's not just the people in the immediate region

但，不僅是住在鄰近 區域的人會被影響，

who'll be affected.

People living downstream will also be hit hard.

住在下游的人也會受到重創。

That's because 10 of their major rivers

那是因為，他們的 主要河流中有十條

originate in the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountains.

都是源自興都庫什喜瑪拉雅山脈。

These rivers provide critical water for agriculture

這些河水為農業以及飲用水

提供了關鍵的水源，

and drinking water

to more than 1.6 billion people living downstream.

造福下游超過十六億居民。

That's one in five humans.

也就是五分之一的人類。

That's why the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountains

那就是為什麼 興都庫什喜瑪拉雅山脈

are also called the "water towers of Asia."

也被稱為「亞洲的水塔」。

But when glaciers melt,

但當冰河融化時，

when monsoons turn severe,

當雨季變強烈時，

those rivers will obviously flood,

那些河流想當然就會泛濫，

so there will be deluges when water is not required

所以，在不需要水時卻會有洪水，

and droughts will be very common,

在迫切需要水的時候，

when water is desperately required.

乾旱也會非常常見。

In short, Asia's water tower will be broken,

簡言之，

亞洲的水塔會被破壞，

and that will be disastrous for one-fifth of humanity.

屆時對世上五分之一的人類 會造成空前的災難。

Should the rest of the world care?

世界上的其他人應該在乎嗎？

Should you, for instance, care?

比如，在座各位應該在乎嗎？

Remember, I didn't care when I heard that the Maldives

別忘了，當我聽到馬爾地夫 可能會消失在水底時，

could disappear underwater.

我並不在乎。

And that is the crux of the problem, isn't it?

那就是問題的關鍵，對吧？

We don't care.

我們不在乎。

We don't care until we are personally affected.

要等到我們自身受到 影響時，我們才會在乎。

I mean, we know. We know climate change is real.

我是指，我們知道 氣候變遷是真的。

We know that we face drastic and dramatic change.

我們知道我們面臨 猛烈且劇大的改變。

We know that it is coming fast.

我們知道它來勢洶洶。

Yet most of us

但，我們大部分人

act as if everything were normal.

表現出來的樣子就好像 一切都很正常。

So we must care,

所以，我們必須要在乎，

all of us,

我們所有人，

and if you can't care for those who are affected by the melting of glaciers,

如果你無法在乎那些受到 融化冰河影響的人，

you should at least care for yourself.

你至少也應該為你自己去在乎。

That's because the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountains --

那是因為，興都庫什 喜瑪拉雅山脈——

the entire region is like the pulse of the planet.

這整個區域就像是地球的命脈，

If the region falls sick,

如果這個區域生病了，

the entire planet will eventually suffer.

整個地球最終也會受苦。

And right now,

目前，

with our glaciers melting rapidly,

我們的冰河在快速融化，

the region is not just sick --

這個區域不僅生病了——

it is crying out for help.

它還在大聲求助。

And how will it affect the rest of the world?

它會如何影響世界上的其它地方？

One obvious scenario is the potential destabilization

其中一個很明顯的情況就是

數千萬氣候難民 會造成潛在的不穩定，

caused by tens of millions of climate refugees,

who'll be forced to move because they have no or little water,

他們被迫搬離是因為 他們幾乎沒有水了，

or because their livelihoods have been destroyed

或者因為他們的生計 被冰河的融化給摧毀了。

by the melting of glaciers.

Another scenario we can't take lightly

另一個情況我們也不能輕忽，

is the potential of conflict over water

那就是大家可能會為了水 而發生衝突，

and the political destabilization in a region that has three nuclear powers:

且在三個具核武之政權 共處的區域，

可能會發生不穩定：

China, India, Pakistan.

中國、印度、巴基斯坦。

I believe that the situation in our region is grave enough

我相信在我們這個區域的情況 已經夠嚴重到足以

to warrant the creation of a new intergovernmental agency.

創立一個新的跨國管理機構。

So as a native from that part of the world,

而我身為來自地球該區的當地人，

I want to propose here, today,

今天我想要在這裡提議

the establishment of the Third Pole Council,

成立第三極地理事會，

a high-level, intergovernmental organization

一個高階的跨國管理組織，

tasked with the singular responsibility

要做的任務只有一項責任，

of protecting the world's third-largest repository of ice.

就是保護世界上第三大的冰庫。

A Third Pole Council

第三極理事會的會員國要包含

would consist of all eight countries located in the region

該區域中的八個國家，

as member countries,

as equal member countries,

它們是平等的會員國。

and could also include representative organizations

也可以納入代表性組織，

and other countries who have vested interests in the region

其它在這個區域有既得利益的國家

as non-voting members.

可以成為沒有投票權的會員。

But the big idea

但，重點在於

is to get all stakeholders together to work together.

要讓所有的利害關係者 集結在一起努力。

To work together to monitor the health of the glaciers;

一同監控冰河的健康；

to work together to shape and implement policies to protect our glaciers,

一同制訂和實施政策 來保護我們的冰河，

and, by extension,

還可以再進一步，

to protect the billions of people who depend on our glaciers.

保護數十億仰賴我們冰河的人。

We have to work together,

我們必須同心協力，

because thinking globally, acting locally ...

因為，全球性的思考、 地方性的行動，

does not work.

是行不通的。

We've tried that in Bhutan.

我們在不丹試過了。

We've made immense sacrifices to act locally ...

為了地方性的行動， 我們做了很巨大的犧牲，

and while individual localized efforts will continue to be important,

雖然個別的地方性努力 仍然會很重要，

they cannot stand up to the onslaught of climate change.

但這些努力可能承受不了 氣候變遷的猛攻。

To stand up to climate change, we must work together.

若要起身對抗氣候變遷， 我們必須要同心協力。

We must think globally and act regionally.

我們必須做全球性的思考、 區域性的行動，

Our entire region must come together,

我們的整個區域必須要團結起來，

to work together,

同心協力，

to fight climate change together,

一起對抗氣候變遷，

to make our voices heard together.

一起讓我們的聲音被聽見。

And that includes India and China.

那包括了印度和中國。

They must step up their game.

他們必須要建立他們的遊戲。

They must take the ownership of the fight to protect our glaciers.

它們必須要負起責任 保護我們的冰河。

And for that, these two countries, these two powerful giants,

若要成功，這兩個國家， 這兩個強大的巨人

must reduce their own greenhouse gases,

就必須要減少它們 自己的溫室氣體，

control their pollution, and lead the fight.

控制它們的污染，帶頭打這場仗。

Lead the global fight against climate change.

帶領全球對抗氣候變遷。

And all that with a renewed sense of urgency.

且還要知道現在的 急迫性不同於以往了。

Only then -- and that, too, only maybe --

唯有這樣——只是有可能——

will our region

我們的區域，

and other regions that depend on our glaciers

以及其它仰賴我們冰河的區域，

have any chance to avoid major catastrophes.

才會有機會避免重大災難。

Time is running out.

時間快不夠了。

We must act together, now.

我們必須要現在就同心協力。

Otherwise, the next time Nepal's cabinet meets on Mount Everest,

不然，下一次

尼泊爾的內閣會議 在聖母峰上舉行時，

that spectacular backdrop ...

那壯觀的背景……

may look quite different.

可能會變得很不一樣。

And if that happens,

如果發生了，

if our glaciers melt,

如果我們的冰河融化了，

rising sea levels could well drown the Maldives.

水平面升高就可能會 淹沒馬爾地夫。

And while they can hold their cabinet meetings underwater

雖然他們可以在水下 舉行內閣會議，

to send an SOS to the world,

向世界發出求救訊息，

their country can keep existing

唯有他們的島嶼繼續存在，

only if their islands keep existing.

他們的國家才有可能繼續存在。

The Maldives are still distant, away.

馬爾地夫仍然很遙遠。

Their islands are distant from where I live.

他們的島嶼離我住的地方很遠。

But now, I pay close attention to what happens out there.

但，現在，我會密切 注意那裡發生的事。

Thank you very much.

非常謝謝。

（掌聲）

(Applause)