The state of the climate -- and what we might do about it | Nicholas Stern

翻译人员: Yumeng Guo 校对人员: dahong zhang

We are at a remarkable moment in time.

我们正处在一个关键时刻。

We face over the next two decades

在下一个20年，我们面临两个重大变革，

two fundamental transformations

that will determine whether the next 100 years

这将决定下一个100年

is the best of centuries or the worst of centuries.

是最美好的世纪，还是最糟糕的世纪。

Let me illustrate with an example.

我举一个例子来阐述一下。

I first visited Beijing 25 years ago

25年前我去了北京，

to teach at the People's University of China.

在中国人民大学教书。

China was getting serious about market economics

那时中国正重视市场经济和大学教育的问题，

and about university education,

so they decided to call in the foreign experts.

所以他们打算向国外专家求助。

Like most other people,

像大多数人一样，

I moved around Beijing by bicycle.

我骑自行车在北京游逛。

Apart from dodging the occasional vehicle,

除了偶尔要躲一下其他车辆，

it was a safe and easy way to get around.

自行车出行既简单又快捷。

Cycling in Beijing now

现在在北京骑自行车是完全不同的体验了。

is a completely different prospect.

The roads are jammed by cars and trucks.

轿车和卡车拥堵在路上，

The air is dangerously polluted

因为燃烧煤炭和柴油，空气污染严重。

from the burning of coal and diesel.

When I was there last in the spring,

上一次去北京是一个春天，

there was an advisory for people of my age —

有建议针对我这个年纪的人——

over 65 —

超过65岁——

to stay indoors and not move much.

留在室内，减少活动。

How did this come about?

如今这种状况是怎么产生的？

It came from the way in which

这种状况是由北京城市的发展方式导致的。

Beijing has grown as a city.

It's doubled over those 25 years, more than doubled,

北京人口在过去25年的时间里，

from 10 million to 20 million.

翻了不止一番，从1千万增长到2千万。

It's become a sprawling urban area

北京正变成一个依赖不清洁的燃料、能源的城市，

dependent on dirty fuel, dirty energy,

particularly coal.

煤炭首当其冲。

China burns half the world's coal each year,

中国每年烧掉的煤占掉全世界的一半，

and that's why, it is a key reason why,

这是中国为何是世界上

it is the world's largest emitter

排放温室气体最多的国家的重要原因。

of greenhouse gases.

At the same time, we have to recognize

与此同时，我们必须认识到，

that in that period China has grown remarkably.

在这段时期，中国取得了卓越的发展，

It has become the world's second largest economy.

已经成为世界第二经济大国，

Hundreds of millions of people

数以亿计的人民已摆脱贫困。

have been lifted out of poverty.

That's really important.

这是非常重要的。

But at the same time, the people of China

但与此同时，中国人民在问：

are asking the question:

What's the value of this growth

如果城市变得不宜居，这样的发展有何意义？

if our cities are unlivable?

They've analyzed, diagnosed

他们已经研究并确信，

that this is an unsustainable path of growth

这不是一个可持续发展的路线。

and development.

China's planning to scale back coal.

中国正计划缩减煤炭使用规模，

It's looking to build its cities in different ways.

正以不同的路线来发展城市。

Now, the growth of China

中国的发展是世界经济格局的

is part of a dramatic change, fundamental change,

重要而深远的变革之一。

in the structure of the world economy.

Just 25 years ago, the developing countries,

就在25年前，发展中国家，

the poorer countries of the world,

世界上这些相对较贫困的国家，

were, notwithstanding being the vast majority of the people,

尽管拥有世界上最多的人口，

they accounted for only about a third

它们只占了全世界产出的三分之一，

of the world's output.

Now it's more than half;

如今已超过一半了，

25 years from now, it will probably be two thirds

25年之后，会达到三分之二，

from the countries that we saw 25 years ago

正是这些25年之前的发展中国家。

as developing.

That's a remarkable change.

这真是一个不可思议的转变。

It means that most countries around the world,

这意味着，世界上大部分国家，

rich or poor, are going to be facing

无论是贫困的还是富裕的，都将面临这两个深刻的变革，

the two fundamental transformations

that I want to talk about and highlight.

这两个变革就是我想谈论并强调的。

Now, the first of these transformations

第一个变革是经济和社会基础结构的变化，

is the basic structural change

of the economies and societies

that I've already begun to illustrate

这个变化在我谈及北京时就已开始说明了。

through the description of Beijing.

Fifty percent now in urban areas.

50%的人目前居住在城市，

That's going to go to 70 percent in 2050.

到2050年，这一数字将达到70%。

Over the next two decades, we'll see

未来的20年中，

the demand for energy rise by 40 percent,

对能源的需求将增长40%，

and the growth in the economy and in the population

经济的发展和人口的增长

is putting increasing pressure on our land,

正对我们的土地、水源和森林施加越来越大的压力。

on our water and on our forests.

This is profound structural change.

这是深刻的结构的变化。

If we manage it in a negligent

如果我们忽视这一问题，

or a shortsighted way,

或目光短浅地看待这一问题，

we will create waste, pollution, congestion,

土地和森林将被我们浪费、污染、破坏或变得拥堵。

destruction of land and forests.

If we think of those three areas that I have illustrated

考虑到我刚才用数字说明的

with my numbers — cities, energy, land —

三方面——城市、能源、土地——的问题，

if we manage all that badly,

如果我们不予以善待，

then the outlook for the lives and livelihoods

那么人类以及地球上所有生物的处境都将不堪设想。

of the people around the world

would be poor and damaged.

And more than that,

不仅如此，

the emissions of greenhouse gases would rise,

温室气体的排放将会上升，

with immense risks to our climate.

这将对气候带来巨大的威胁。

Concentrations of greenhouse gases

大气中温室气体的浓度，

in the atmosphere are already

已经是数百万年以来最高值。

higher than they've been for millions of years.

If we go on increasing those concentrations,

如果浓度持续增加，

we risk temperatures over the next century or so

到下个世纪，地球的温度

that we have not seen on this planet

会有达到数千万年来最高值的风险。

for tens of millions of years.

We've been around as Homo sapiens —

智人——或更宽泛的定义，现代人——时期，

that's a rather generous definition, sapiens —

for perhaps a quarter of a million years, a quarter of a million.

大约25万年，是的，25万年。

We risk temperatures we haven't seen

在一个世纪内，我们将面临

for tens of millions of years over a century.

数千万年来没遇到过的气温上升的风险。

That would transform the relationship

这将改变人类和地球的关系，

between human beings and the planet.

It would lead to changing deserts,

这将改变沙漠，

changing rivers, changing patterns of hurricanes,

改变河流，改变飓风的模式，

changing sea levels,

改变海平面高度，

hundreds of millions of people,

数以亿计，甚至数以十亿计的人将不得不搬迁。

perhaps billions of people who would have to move,

and if we've learned anything from history,

如果我们从历史中学到了点什么的话，

that means severe and extended conflict.

这意味着更严重和广泛的冲突矛盾。

And we couldn't just turn it off.

我们不能简单地一关了之，

You can't make a peace treaty with the planet.

不可能跟地球签订一个和平协议，

You can't negotiate with the laws of physics.

不能跟物理定律讨价还价。

You're in there. You're stuck.

身处其中，别无他法。

Those are the stakes we're playing for,

刚才所描述的正是我们行为的赌注，

and that's why we have to make this second transformation,

正因此，我们不得不进行第二项变革，

the climate transformation,

即气候的转变，并转向低碳经济。

and move to a low-carbon economy.

Now, the first of these transformations

第一项变革，即经济和社会结构的变革，

is going to happen anyway.

迟早都会发生，

We have to decide whether to do it well or badly,

我们能做的只是决定它是往好还是坏的方向发展。

the economic, or structural, transformation.

But the second of the transformations,

但这第二项变革，

the climate transformations, we have to decide to do.

即气候的转变，需要我们决定去做。

Those two transformations face us

未来的二十年，我们将面临这两项变革。

in the next two decades.

The next two decades are decisive

我们决定要做的事情，对未来二十年会有决定性影响。

for what we have to do.

Now, the more I've thought about this,

我越想这个问题，

the two transformations coming together,

即两项变革一起到来，

the more I've come to realize

我越觉得这是一个巨大的机会。

that this is an enormous opportunity.

It's an opportunity which we can use

我们要么把握住这个机会，要么错失。

or it's an opportunity which we can lose.

And let me explain through those three key areas

我来解释刚才提到的三个关键方面：城市、能源和土地。

that I've identified: cities, energy and land.

And let me start with cities.

从城市开始吧。

I've already described the problems of Beijing:

我已经描述北京存在的问题了：

pollution, congestion, waste and so on.

污染、拥堵、浪费等等。

Surely we recognize that in many of our cities

当然，世界范围内很多城市都存在这些问题。

around the world.

Now, with cities, like life but particularly cities,

如今，对于城市的发展，你必须放远目光。

you have to think ahead.

The cities that are going to be built —

有很多很多大城市将在未来建成，

and there are many, and many big ones —

we have to think of how to design them

我们必须考虑如何以更紧凑的方式来规划城市，

in a compact way

so we can save travel time and we can save energy.

这样我们就能节省花在路上的时间，并节约能源。

The cities that already are there, well established,

对于那些已经发展起来的城市，

we have to think about renewal and investment in them

我们需要考虑如何城市重塑，如何投资，

so that we can connect ourselves much better

这样我们就能更和谐地在城市居住，

within those cities, and make it easier,

生活得以简单化，

encourage more people, to live closer to the center.

让更多的人在靠近城中心的地方居住。

We've got examples building around the world

这种理念的实践，

of the kinds of ways in which we can do that.

我们在世界范围内已看到很多例子。

The bus rapid transport system in Bogotá in Colombia

哥伦比亚的波哥大市的快速公交系统是一个非常好的例子，

is a very important case of how to move around

展现了公共交通如何在城市内实现安全、快捷、无污染：

safely and quickly in a non-polluting way

in a city: very frequent buses,

高频次公交车、

strongly protected routes, the same service, really,

全封闭专用道，

这真的跟地铁是一样的服务，

as an underground railway system,

but much, much cheaper

但便宜得多。

and can be done much more quickly,

而且这项政策可在短时间内实现。

a brilliant idea in many more cities

目前世界上很多城市都在仿效这个绝佳的主意。

around the world that's developing.

Now, some things in cities do take time.

对于城市而言，一些事情确实要耗时良久，

Some things in cities can happen much more quickly.

但有些能更快地实现。

Take my hometown, London.

以我的家乡伦敦为例。

In 1952, smog in London killed 4,000 people

1952年，4000人在伦敦因烟雾丧生，

and badly damaged the lives of many, many more.

更多更多的人的身体因烟雾而受到严重损伤。

And it happened all the time.

烟雾事件频频发生。

For those of you live outside London in the U.K.

那些不在伦敦住的英国人

will remember it used to be called The Smoke.

都知道伦敦过去被称为“雾都”。

That's the way London was.

这就是伦敦的情况。

By regulating coal, within a few years

但通过管控燃煤，几年之内，

the problems of smog were rapidly reduced.

烟雾问题得到极大改善。

I remember the smogs well.

我记得烟雾的样子，

When the visibility dropped to [less] than

当能见度降到几米以内，

a few meters,

they stopped the buses and I had to walk.

公交车辆无法行驶，我不得不下车行走，

This was the 1950s.

这是上世纪五十年代。

I had to walk home three miles from school.

从学校到家，我不得不步行三英里。

Again, breathing was a hazardous activity.

还有，呼吸是一件危险活动。

But it was changed. It was changed by a decision.

但这已经改变了，由一项决策而变。

Good decisions can bring good results,

好的决策会在短时间内显著地带来良好的效果。

striking results, quickly.

We've seen more: In London, we've introduced the congestion charge,

我们已经看到了更多的决策：在伦敦，引入拥堵费政策，

actually quite quickly and effectively,

这真的是立竿见影，

and we've seen great improvements

我们看到这项决策极大程度地改善公交系统，

in the bus system, and cleaned up the bus system.

并让公交系统变得清洁友好。

You can see that the two transformations I've described,

你们可以看到，我所描述的两项变革——结构和气候，

the structural and the climate,

come very much together.

可以相辅相成。

But we have to invest. We have to invest in our cities,

但我们不得不投资，在我们的城市里投资，

and we have to invest wisely, and if we do,

而且我们必须明智地投资，如果我们做到了，

we'll see cleaner cities, quieter cities, safer cities,

我们将看到更清洁的、更安静、更安全的城市，

more attractive cities, more productive cities,

更有吸引力、更有效率的城市，

and stronger community in those cities —

城市中也会有更完善的社区——

public transport, recycling, reusing,

公共交通、废物回收利用，

all sorts of things that bring communities together.

所有的付出都会促进社区的发展。

We can do that, but we have to think,

我们可以实现，但我们要思考，

we have to invest, we have to plan.

要投资，要做计划。

Let me turn to energy.

我们再说能源。

Now, energy over the last 25 years

过去25年间，能源的消耗增加了50%，

has increased by about 50 percent.

Eighty percent of that comes from fossil fuels.

其中80%的来自化石燃料。

Over the next 20 years,

在未来20年内，

perhaps it will increase by another 40 percent or so.

也许还会增加40%左右。

We have to invest strongly in energy,

我们必须加大对能源的投资力度、

we have to use it much more efficiently,

更有效地利用能源、

and we have to make it clean.

使用更多的清洁能源。

We can see how to do that.

我们来看如何实现，

Take the example of California.

以加利福尼亚为例。

It would be in the top 10 countries in the world

如果加州独立的话，

if it was independent.

它的经济总量排名将在世界前十，

I don't want to start any —

我不想引发任何——

(Laughter)

（笑声）

California's a big place.

加州“幅员辽阔”。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

In the next five or six years,

在未来五到六年，

they will likely move from

加州所使用的清洁能源——风能，太阳能等——的比例

around 20 percent in renewables —

wind, solar and so on —

将从20%左右上升至33%以上，

to over 33 percent,

and that would bring California back

这样的结果是，到2020年，

to greenhouse gas emissions in 2020

加州的温室气体排放量将回落至1990年的水平，

to where they were in 1990,

a period when the economy in California

而相对1990年，到2020年时，

would more or less have doubled.

加州的经济总量将翻番。

That's a striking achievement.

这真是丰功伟业。

It shows what can be done.

事实已证明这是可以实现的。

Not just California — the incoming government of India

不仅是加州，印度新一届政府

is planning to get solar technology

正计划将太阳能送入民众家，

to light up the homes

用于照明，

of 400 million people

受惠的民众达4亿，

who don't have electricity in India.

这些家庭目前没有电力供应。

They've set themselves a target of five years.

他们已给自己制定了五年期目标，

I think they've got a good chance of doing that.

我认为实现这一目标的前景乐观，

We'll see, but what you're seeing now

我们会见证的。

如今，我们已经看到人们在尤为积极地行动着，

is people moving much more quickly.

Four hundred million, more than the population

4亿民众啊，这比美国人口都多。

of the United States.

Those are the kinds of ambitions now

这正是人们为迅速变革而许下的雄心壮志。

people are setting themselves

in terms of rapidity of change.

Again, you can see

再次强调，你们可以看到，

good decisions can bring quick results,

好的决策会迅速看到成效，

and those two transformations, the economy and the structure

另外，经济结构和气候、低碳这两项变革相辅相成。

and the climate and the low carbon,

are intimately intertwined.

Do the first one well, the structural,

如果前者，即经济变革进行顺利，

the second one on the climate

那气候变革也会容易许多。

becomes much easier.

Look at land,

我们再来看土地，

land and particularly forests.

土地，尤其是森林。

Forests are the hosts to valuable

森林是孕育珍贵动植物的地方，

plant and animal species.

They hold water in the soil

森林有助于土壤蓄水，

and they take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere,

并吸收大气中的二氧化碳，

fundamental to the tackling of climate change.

森林是气候变化的关键所在。

But we're losing our forests.

但森林在逐渐消失。

In the last decade, we've lost a forest area

过去的十年内，

消失的森林的面积相当于葡萄牙的国土面积，

the size of Portugal,

and much more has been degraded.

有更大面积的森林在退化。

But we're already seeing

但我们已知道，

that we can do so much about that.

我们可以为之做很多努力。

We can recognize the problem, but we can also

我们能发现问题，我们知道如何解决问题。

understand how to tackle it.

In Brazil, the rate of deforestation

在巴西，过去的十年内，森林滥砍滥伐的速度已降低70%，

has been reduced by 70 percent

over the last 10 years.

How? By involving local communities,

如何实现的？

通过联合当地的社区，投资农业和经济，

investing in their agriculture and their economies,

by monitoring more carefully,

更严密地管控，更严格地实施法律。

by enforcing the law more strictly.

And it's not just stopping deforestation.

带来的效益不只是阻止了滥砍滥伐。

That's of course of first and fundamental importance,

当然阻止滥砍滥伐是最重要的，

but it's also regrading degraded land,

但这些举措也造福了退化的土地，

regenerating, rehabilitating degraded land.

让这些土地再生，重新变得可以利用。

I first went to Ethiopia in 1967.

我1967年第一次去埃塞俄比亚，

It was desperately poor. In the following years,

当地的穷困令人绝望。在接下来的几年，

it suffered devastating famines

埃塞俄比亚经历了严重的饥荒和破坏性极强的社会动乱。

and profoundly destructive social conflict.

Over the last few years, actually more than a few,

过去几年，事实上不止几年，

Ethiopia has been growing much more rapidly.

埃塞俄比亚发展飞快，

It has ambitions to be a middle-income country

决心要在15年后成为中等收入的国家，

15 years from now

and to be carbon neutral.

并达到碳平衡。

Again, I think it's a strong ambition

再次强调，我认为这是雄心壮志，

but it is a plausible one.

但是可以实现。

You're seeing that commitment there.

你们看到了他们的承诺，你们看到了是什么可以实现。

You're seeing what can be done.

Ethiopia is investing in clean energy.

埃塞俄比亚正投资清洁能源，

It's working in the rehabilitation of land.

致力于土地再生。

In Humbo, in southwest Ethiopia,

在埃塞俄比亚西南部Humbo市，

a wonderful project

一项绝佳的项目显著地提升了居民生活水平，

to plant trees on degraded land

and work with local communities

该项目一方面在退化土地上种植树木，

on sustainable forest management

另一方面与当地社区合作，致力于森林可持续发展管理。

has led to big increases in living standards.

So we can see, from Beijing to London,

所以我们可以看到，从北京到伦敦，

from California to India,

从加州到印度，

from Brazil to Ethiopia,

从巴西到埃塞俄比亚，

we do understand

我们确实明白，

how to manage those two transformations,

如何进行这两项变革——结构和气候。

the structural and the climate.

We do understand how to manage those well.

我们确实明白如何有效地进行。

And technology is changing very rapidly.

技术发展日新月异，

I don't have to list all those things

我不必向你们列举出全部的技术革新，

to an audience like this,

but you can see the electric cars,

你们可以看到电动汽车，

you can see the batteries using new materials.

你们可以看到利用新材料的电池，

You can see that we can manage remotely now

你们可以看到如今当我们出门在外时，

our household appliances on our mobile phones when we're away.

能用手机远程控制家里的电器，

You can see better insulation.

你们可以看到更好的隔热材料。

And there's much more coming.

而且，远远不止这些。

But, and it's a big but,

但是，严重的问题在于，

the world as a whole

世界作为一个整体的革新速度太慢了。

is moving far too slowly.

We're not cutting emissions in the way we should.

我们没有按照应有的方式减少排放，

We're not managing those structural transformations

我们没有尽我们所能开展结构变革。

as we can.

The depth of understanding of the immense risks of climate change

气候变化潜在的巨大风险还没有被人们充分地认识，

are not there yet.

The depth of understanding

我们能付出的努力的意义还没有被人们充分地理解。

of the attractiveness of what we can do

is not there yet.

We need political pressure to build.

政治压力需要施加，

We need leaders to step up.

领导者需要站出来，

We can have better growth,

我们才会让世界获得更好的发展、

better climate, a better world.

拥有更好的气候和更美好的地球。

We can make,

通过有效地进行这两项变革，

by managing those two transformations well,

the next 100 years the best of centuries.

我们可以让下一个100年成为最好的世纪。

If we make a mess of it,

如果我们做得不好，

we, you and me, if we make a mess of it,

我们，你和我，如果做得不好，

if we don't manage those transformations properly,

如果我们没有有效地进行这两项变革，

it will be, the next 100 years

下一个100年将成为最糟糕的世纪。

will be the worst of centuries.

That's the major conclusion

以上就是经济和气候研究报告的重要结论，

of the report on the economy and climate

chaired by ex-President Felipe Calderón of Mexico,

该研究报告由墨西哥前总统费利佩·卡尔德龙

and I co-chaired that with him,

和我共同牵头。

and we handed that report yesterday

昨天在纽约的联合国大厦，

here in New York, in the United Nations Building

我们将这份报告呈交联合国秘书长潘基文。

to the Secretary-General of the U.N.,

Ban Ki-moon.

We know that we can do this.

我们知道可以实现目标。

Now, two weeks ago,

两周前，

I became a grandfather for the fourth time.

我第四次成为祖父，

Our daughter —

我的女儿——

(Baby cries) (Laughter) (Applause) —

（婴儿哭声）（笑声）（掌声）——

Our daughter gave birth to Rosa here in New York

两周前，我的女儿在纽约生了罗斯，

two weeks ago. Here are Helen and Rosa.

欢迎海伦和罗斯。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Two weeks old.

罗斯只有两周大，

Are we going to look our grandchildren in the eye

我们会看着孙辈的眼睛，

and tell them that we understood the issues,

告诉他们我们理解了世界的问题所在，

that we recognized the dangers and the opportunities,

意识到了危险和机会所在，

and still we failed to act?

但依然没能行动？

Surely not. Let's make the next 100 years

当然不会，让我们一起将下一个100年变成最好的世纪。

the best of centuries.

（掌声）

(Applause)