The state of the climate -- and what we might do about it | Nicholas Stern

譯者: Yamei Huang 審譯者: Regina Chu

We are at a remarkable moment in time.

我們現在正處於一個不凡的時代。

We face over the next two decades

在未來的 20 年

two fundamental transformations

將面對二個重大的轉變

that will determine whether the next 100 years

這二個轉變， 將決定未來的 100 年，

is the best of centuries or the worst of centuries.

是最好的世紀，還是最壞的世紀。

Let me illustrate with an example.

我來舉個例子讓你了解，

I first visited Beijing 25 years ago

我在 25 年前第一次造訪北京

to teach at the People's University of China.

在中國人民大學教書。

China was getting serious about market economics

在大學教育學程裡，

and about university education,

中國漸漸重視市場經濟狀況，

so they decided to call in the foreign experts.

所以他們決定尋求國外專家。

Like most other people,

像其他大多數人一樣，

I moved around Beijing by bicycle.

我騎著腳踏車逛北京市區。

Apart from dodging the occasional vehicle,

除了閃躲少數的車輛外，

it was a safe and easy way to get around.

在這裡閒逛既安全又簡單。

Cycling in Beijing now

現在在北京騎腳踏車

is a completely different prospect.

已經不再有相同的光景。

The roads are jammed by cars and trucks.

馬路擠滿汽車、卡車。

The air is dangerously polluted

燃燒煤炭和柴油

from the burning of coal and diesel.

空氣受到嚴重污染。

When I was there last in the spring,

去年春天我住在北京時，

there was an advisory for people of my age —

有一則建議是：像我這個年紀的人，

over 65 —

年紀超過 65 歲的人，

to stay indoors and not move much.

最好待在室內，不要到處走。

How did this come about?

怎麼會變成這樣？

It came from the way in which

這是因為

Beijing has grown as a city.

北京已經發展成為一個大城市。

It's doubled over those 25 years, more than doubled,

這 25 年來， 人口數超過雙倍的成長，

from 10 million to 20 million.

從 1,000 萬人， 成長為 2,000 萬人。

It's become a sprawling urban area

北京成為一個無擴展計劃的都會區，

dependent on dirty fuel, dirty energy,

仰賴造成污染的燃料、能源，

particularly coal.

尤其是煤炭。

China burns half the world's coal each year,

每年，中國消耗 世界用量一半的煤炭，

and that's why, it is a key reason why,

這就是造成污染的主要原因了，

it is the world's largest emitter

這裡是世界上最大的

of greenhouse gases.

溫室氣體排放區。

At the same time, we have to recognize

同時，我們也知道

that in that period China has grown remarkably.

中國在這段時間有驚人的成長，

It has become the world's second largest economy.

成為世界第二大經濟體，

Hundreds of millions of people

數以億計的人

have been lifted out of poverty.

已脫離貧困。

That's really important.

這是相當重要的因素，

But at the same time, the people of China

同時，

are asking the question:

中國人民問了一個問題：

What's the value of this growth

如果我們的環境不適合人們居住，

if our cities are unlivable?

那麼，經濟成長 又帶給我們什麼好處？

They've analyzed, diagnosed

透過種種的分析與診斷，

that this is an unsustainable path of growth

這種經濟快速成長的腳步

and development.

無法長久持續下去。

China's planning to scale back coal.

中國正在計畫減少煤炭的使用量，

It's looking to build its cities in different ways.

尋找以不同的方式 來建立屬於自己的城市，

Now, the growth of China

現在，成長的中國

is part of a dramatic change, fundamental change,

在世界經濟結構中，

in the structure of the world economy.

產生了戲劇性且重大的變化，

Just 25 years ago, the developing countries,

25 年前，世界上發展中的國家，

the poorer countries of the world,

貧窮的國家，

were, notwithstanding being the vast majority of the people,

儘管這些國家的人民佔大多數，

they accounted for only about a third

但這些人的產出

of the world's output.

只佔世界總產出的 1/3。

Now it's more than half;

現在這個數字已經超過一半；

25 years from now, it will probably be two thirds

25 年後， 這些在 25 年前被我們稱為

from the countries that we saw 25 years ago

發展中國家的產出

as developing.

將達到世界產出的 2/3。

That's a remarkable change.

這是個驚人的成長幅度，

It means that most countries around the world,

也就是說，世界上大部分的國家，

rich or poor, are going to be facing

不論富有或貧窮，

the two fundamental transformations

正面臨二個重要的轉變，

that I want to talk about and highlight.

這是今天我要向各位說明及強調的。

Now, the first of these transformations

第一個轉變

is the basic structural change

是經濟及社會

of the economies and societies

基礎結構的改變

that I've already begun to illustrate

如我剛剛所提到的，

through the description of Beijing.

北京的這個例子。

Fifty percent now in urban areas.

50% 是城市地區了，

That's going to go to 70 percent in 2050.

在 2050 年， 這個數據將提高到 70%。

Over the next two decades, we'll see

在接下來的 20 年， 我們將看到，

the demand for energy rise by 40 percent,

人類對能源的需求， 將提高 40%，

and the growth in the economy and in the population

經濟及人口的成長，

is putting increasing pressure on our land,

對於土地資源、水資源、 森林資源來說

on our water and on our forests.

將產生更大的壓力，

This is profound structural change.

這結構的改變影響非常深遠，

If we manage it in a negligent

如果我們忽視不予理會，

or a shortsighted way,

或目光短淺，

we will create waste, pollution, congestion,

我們珍貴的土地及森林，

destruction of land and forests.

將陷入浪費、污染、 破壞、擁擠等問題。

If we think of those three areas that I have illustrated

如果我們對於我一再闡述的

with my numbers — cities, energy, land —

城市、能源、土地這三個方面

if we manage all that badly,

處理不當，

then the outlook for the lives and livelihoods

那麼全世界的人類

of the people around the world

在生活及生計上，

would be poor and damaged.

將會更加貧窮及受到損害。

And more than that,

更重要的是，

the emissions of greenhouse gases would rise,

這會增加溫室氣體 排放到大氣層的量，

with immense risks to our climate.

對氣候造成相當大危害。

Concentrations of greenhouse gases

大氣中

in the atmosphere are already

溫室氣體的濃度

higher than they've been for millions of years.

已經高於百萬年來所累積的量，

If we go on increasing those concentrations,

如果我們繼續增加溫室氣體的濃度，

we risk temperatures over the next century or so

下一世紀左右地球增溫的風險，

that we have not seen on this planet

將是我們千萬年來

for tens of millions of years.

在地球上前所未見的。

We've been around as Homo sapiens —

我們身為所謂的現代人，

that's a rather generous definition, sapiens —

現代人是一個相當寬廣的定義。

for perhaps a quarter of a million years, a quarter of a million.

已經存在了大約 25 萬年，25 萬年。

We risk temperatures we haven't seen

然而我們在這一世紀增溫的風險，

for tens of millions of years over a century.

卻是千萬年所未見。

That would transform the relationship

人類與地球的關係

between human beings and the planet.

會因此改變。

It would lead to changing deserts,

暖化導致改變沙漠，

changing rivers, changing patterns of hurricanes,

改變河流，改變颶風的形成，

changing sea levels,

改變海平面，

hundreds of millions of people,

數億人，

perhaps billions of people who would have to move,

甚至上兆的人必需遷移，

and if we've learned anything from history,

如果我們以史為鏡，

that means severe and extended conflict.

就知道這代表嚴重及持續的衝突，

And we couldn't just turn it off.

而且我們無法停止其發生。

You can't make a peace treaty with the planet.

你無法與地球簽訂和平條約，

You can't negotiate with the laws of physics.

無法與物理定律協商談判。

You're in there. You're stuck.

你住在地球上，沒有選擇的餘地。

Those are the stakes we're playing for,

這就是我們玩的賭注，

and that's why we have to make this second transformation,

這也是為什麼， 我們要有第二種轉變，

the climate transformation,

氣候的轉變，

and move to a low-carbon economy.

轉到低碳經濟，

Now, the first of these transformations

現在，第一種轉變

is going to happen anyway.

已然發生，

We have to decide whether to do it well or badly,

我們得判斷要不要把它做好，

the economic, or structural, transformation.

就是經濟或結構的轉變。

But the second of the transformations,

但是第二種轉變，

the climate transformations, we have to decide to do.

氣候轉變的問題， 我們必須下定決心去做。

Those two transformations face us

這是我們未來的 20 年

in the next two decades.

要面對的兩個轉變，

The next two decades are decisive

未來的 20 年，是判斷我們

for what we have to do.

要做什麼的關鍵時刻。

Now, the more I've thought about this,

除此之外，我還想到

the two transformations coming together,

把這兩個轉變結合在一起，

the more I've come to realize

我了解越多，

that this is an enormous opportunity.

越是認為這是一個大機會，

It's an opportunity which we can use

它是我們可以善加利用的機會，

or it's an opportunity which we can lose.

或是錯過這個良機。

And let me explain through those three key areas

我透過城市、能源、土地三方面，

that I've identified: cities, energy and land.

來向各位說明，

And let me start with cities.

首先從城市開始，

I've already described the problems of Beijing:

我已針對北京的問題作了說明，

pollution, congestion, waste and so on.

例如：污染、擁擠、廢料等問題，

Surely we recognize that in many of our cities

可以確定的是這個問題存在於

around the world.

世界上的許多城市。

Now, with cities, like life but particularly cities,

城市，就像生涯一般，

you have to think ahead.

你必須事先想清楚，

The cities that are going to be built —

尚未建造的城市，

and there are many, and many big ones —

有很多大城市正在規劃中，

we have to think of how to design them

我們必須事先設計，

in a compact way

以簡潔的方式來設計城市

so we can save travel time and we can save energy.

以建造一個可以節省行程， 節省能源的城市。

The cities that already are there, well established,

而已被建造的城市， 生根似地矗立著的，

we have to think about renewal and investment in them

我們必需思考重建、 投入時間及金錢在城市上，

so that we can connect ourselves much better

使我們在城市裡，

within those cities, and make it easier,

交通更便捷，更容易連結，

encourage more people, to live closer to the center.

鼓勵更多人居住在市中心附近。

We've got examples building around the world

世界上，以此方法建造的都市中，

of the kinds of ways in which we can do that.

有一個實例證明我們辦得到。

The bus rapid transport system in Bogotá in Colombia

哥倫比亞波哥大的巴士捷運系統

is a very important case of how to move around

對如何以不污染，安全又快速的方式

safely and quickly in a non-polluting way

在城市裡移動，是非常重要的實例。

in a city: very frequent buses,

可以看到來回穿梭的巴士，

strongly protected routes, the same service, really,

強烈保護的行駛路線，真的，

as an underground railway system,

就像地下鐵路系統一般，

but much, much cheaper

但比地鐵相對便宜很多，

and can be done much more quickly,

而且更容易建造，

a brilliant idea in many more cities

這個好點子，可以給

around the world that's developing.

許多發展中國家的城市當參考。

Now, some things in cities do take time.

城市裡，有些事做起來費時，

Some things in cities can happen much more quickly.

有些事可以快速得到結果。

Take my hometown, London.

以我的家鄉，倫敦來說，

In 1952, smog in London killed 4,000 people

在 1952 年，有 4,000 人死於煙霧

and badly damaged the lives of many, many more.

嚴重危及許多人的生命安全，

And it happened all the time.

煙霧的現象一直存在。

For those of you live outside London in the U.K.

那些住在倫敦郊區的人

will remember it used to be called The Smoke.

對以往大煙印象非常深刻，

That's the way London was.

這是大家所認識的以前的倫敦，

By regulating coal, within a few years

最近這幾年來， 藉由管制煤炭的使用量，

the problems of smog were rapidly reduced.

煙霧的問題已快速地減少。

I remember the smogs well.

我對煙霧的印象非常深刻。

When the visibility dropped to [less] than

當能見度

a few meters,

低於數公尺，

they stopped the buses and I had to walk.

公車會停駛，而我必須走路回家。

This was the 1950s.

這是 1950 年代的倫敦。

I had to walk home three miles from school.

我必須從學校走三英里路回家。

Again, breathing was a hazardous activity.

況且，吸入這些煙霧對身體有害。

But it was changed. It was changed by a decision.

但是這個情況已改變， 被一個決策所改變，

Good decisions can bring good results,

好的決策帶來好的結果，

striking results, quickly.

快速產生驚人的結果。

We've seen more: In London, we've introduced the congestion charge,

我們也知道另一件事， 進倫敦市區要付入城費以避免塞車，

actually quite quickly and effectively,

實行這個制度後， 結果是既快速又有效率，

and we've seen great improvements

在巴士運輸系統及巴士清潔系統

in the bus system, and cleaned up the bus system.

我們已看到很大的進步。

You can see that the two transformations I've described,

從這裡你可以了解 我所描述的這二個轉變，

the structural and the climate,

即城市結構和氣候的問題，

come very much together.

是交互產生，

But we have to invest. We have to invest in our cities,

我們必須投資， 投資在我們居住的城市，

and we have to invest wisely, and if we do,

而且是有智慧的投資， 如果我們這麼做，

we'll see cleaner cities, quieter cities, safer cities,

我們將會看到更乾淨、 更安靜、更安全、

more attractive cities, more productive cities,

更迷人、更有生產力的城市，

and stronger community in those cities —

城市間有更強的社區連結　－

public transport, recycling, reusing,

大眾運輸系統、回收再利用系統，

all sorts of things that bring communities together.

各式各樣的系統，將社區連結起來。

We can do that, but we have to think,

我們可以這麼做， 但是我們必須思考，

we have to invest, we have to plan.

我們必須投入，必須規劃，

Let me turn to energy.

再來看能源。

Now, energy over the last 25 years

能源的消耗在過去 25 年，

has increased by about 50 percent.

增加了 50%。

Eighty percent of that comes from fossil fuels.

這當中，石化燃料的消耗量佔 80%

Over the next 20 years,

往後的 20 年，

perhaps it will increase by another 40 percent or so.

石化能源的消耗量， 或許會再增加約 40%。

We have to invest strongly in energy,

我們必須大力投資於能源，

we have to use it much more efficiently,

讓能源的使用更有效率，

and we have to make it clean.

我們也必須有乾淨的能源。

We can see how to do that.

我們很清楚該如何做，

Take the example of California.

就以加州來說，

It would be in the top 10 countries in the world

如果加州獨立，

if it was independent.

會是世界上前 10 大的國家。

I don't want to start any —

我並不想引發任何政治辯論——

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

California's a big place.

加州有廣大的土地。 （注：有政客在加州提議分裂）

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

In the next five or six years,

在之後 5 年或 6 年，

they will likely move from

加州的風力、太陽能等

around 20 percent in renewables —

再生能源，

wind, solar and so on —

將由原來的 20%

to over 33 percent,

提高到 33% 以上，

and that would bring California back

這會使加州於 2020 年的

to greenhouse gas emissions in 2020

溫室氣體排放量

to where they were in 1990,

降到 1990 年時的量，

a period when the economy in California

而這段期間，加州的經濟

would more or less have doubled.

大約有 2 倍的成長，

That's a striking achievement.

那是很驚人的成就。

It shows what can be done.

再再顯示，這可以達成。

Not just California — the incoming government of India

不僅是加州， 新任印度政府也正在規劃

is planning to get solar technology

使用太陽能科技

to light up the homes

以點亮

of 400 million people

沒有電力可使用的

who don't have electricity in India.

4 億印度人口的家。

They've set themselves a target of five years.

他們設定 5 年的目標，

I think they've got a good chance of doing that.

我想印度極有可能達到這個目標。

We'll see, but what you're seeing now

我們等著瞧，但你現在看到的是

is people moving much more quickly.

人們行動的速度比以前快。

Four hundred million, more than the population

4 億印度人，

of the United States.

比美國人口還多，

Those are the kinds of ambitions now

他們野心勃勃

people are setting themselves

就快速變化而言，

in terms of rapidity of change.

印度人已準備好接受挑戰。

Again, you can see

除此之外，你可看到

good decisions can bring quick results,

好的決策，可以快速產生結果，

and those two transformations, the economy and the structure

而這二個轉變，經濟與城市結構，

and the climate and the low carbon,

氣候與低碳，

are intimately intertwined.

相互交織，相互影響。

Do the first one well, the structural,

把第一個，也就是城市結構做好，

the second one on the climate

那第二個要轉變氣候，

becomes much easier.

就會變得更加容易。

Look at land,

看看土地，

land and particularly forests.

特別是森林。

Forests are the hosts to valuable

森林是

plant and animal species.

珍貴希有植物及各類動物的家。

They hold water in the soil

森林可以保持水土

and they take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere,

減少大氣層的二氧化碳，

fundamental to the tackling of climate change.

是解決氣候變遷的基礎。

But we're losing our forests.

但我們正漸漸失去森林，

In the last decade, we've lost a forest area

過去 10 年，

我們失去葡萄牙大小的森林，

the size of Portugal,

and much more has been degraded.

而許多森林已受到破壞。

But we're already seeing

我們已經了解

that we can do so much about that.

我們可以為森林做許多事。

We can recognize the problem, but we can also

我們了解問題所在，同時也了解

understand how to tackle it.

如何去解決這個問題。

In Brazil, the rate of deforestation

在巴西，過去 10 年，

has been reduced by 70 percent

森林砍伐率

over the last 10 years.

已減少了 70%

How? By involving local communities,

巴西人是如何做到的？ 他們結合當地居民，

investing in their agriculture and their economies,

在投資於農業及經濟時，

by monitoring more carefully,

更加小心地謹慎地控管，

by enforcing the law more strictly.

及更嚴格地執法。

And it's not just stopping deforestation.

不僅是禁止砍伐森林而已。

That's of course of first and fundamental importance,

這當然是當務之急，也是基本原則，

but it's also regrading degraded land,

並且使已退化的土地再生，

regenerating, rehabilitating degraded land.

讓退化的土地重建、復原。

I first went to Ethiopia in 1967.

我於 1967 年第一次到伊索比亞，

It was desperately poor. In the following years,

人民極為貧困。在接下來的幾年裡，

it suffered devastating famines

人民飽受飢荒之苦，

and profoundly destructive social conflict.

及嚴重性的社會衝突。

Over the last few years, actually more than a few,

在過去的幾年中，其實不只幾年，

伊索比亞已快速發展。

Ethiopia has been growing much more rapidly.

It has ambitions to be a middle-income country

在未年的 15 年有野心

15 years from now

成為中等收入的國家，

and to be carbon neutral.

並成為碳中和的國家。

Again, I think it's a strong ambition

我想這的確是一個很大的目標，

but it is a plausible one.

卻是可以實現的。

You're seeing that commitment there.

因為達成目標的承諾就在你眼前。

You're seeing what can be done.

你知道什麼事會被實踐。

Ethiopia is investing in clean energy.

因為伊索比亞投入清潔能源。

It's working in the rehabilitation of land.

他們投入土地復原的工作。

In Humbo, in southwest Ethiopia,

他們在伊索比亞西南部的洪堡

a wonderful project

成位一個非常好的專案，

to plant trees on degraded land

在退化的土地上種樹，

and work with local communities

與當地居民一起從事

on sustainable forest management

永續森林管理的工作，

has led to big increases in living standards.

如此一來，大大提高人民生活水準。

So we can see, from Beijing to London,

我們可以看到，從北京到倫敦，

from California to India,

從加州到印度，

from Brazil to Ethiopia,

從巴西到伊索比亞，

we do understand

我們確實明白

how to manage those two transformations,

如何管理這二個轉變，

the structural and the climate.

即城市結構及氣候。

We do understand how to manage those well.

我們的確知道如何好好管理。

And technology is changing very rapidly.

科技技術日新月異，

I don't have to list all those things

我不需向你們

to an audience like this,

一一列舉，

but you can see the electric cars,

以電動車來說，

you can see the batteries using new materials.

使用新材料做電池。

You can see that we can manage remotely now

當你不在家，

our household appliances on our mobile phones when we're away.

可以用手機遙控家電用品。

You can see better insulation.

你可看到有更好的絕緣材料問市。

And there's much more coming.

更多的科技產品上市。

But, and it's a big but,

但是，我要強調但是，

the world as a whole

這整個世界

is moving far too slowly.

往前邁進的速度太慢。

We're not cutting emissions in the way we should.

我們並沒有用對的方法 減少溫室氣體的排放量，

We're not managing those structural transformations

我們也沒有用我們能做的方法

as we can.

去轉變城市結構。

The depth of understanding of the immense risks of climate change

人們尚未深刻了解，

are not there yet.

氣候變遷的巨大風險。

The depth of understanding

也尚未深刻了解

of the attractiveness of what we can do

我們做這些對我們

is not there yet.

有什麼好處。

We need political pressure to build.

我們要建立政治影響力。

We need leaders to step up.

需要領導者建立機制。

We can have better growth,

我們會有更好的發展、

better climate, a better world.

更好的氣候、更美好的世界。

We can make,

我們肯定做得到，

by managing those two transformations well,

要把這二個轉變管理好

the next 100 years the best of centuries.

使下一個 100 年，成為最好的世紀。

If we make a mess of it,

如果我們把它搞砸了，

we, you and me, if we make a mess of it,

我們，包括你和我，搞砸了這件事，

if we don't manage those transformations properly,

沒有把這二個轉變管理好，

it will be, the next 100 years

那麼，未來的 100 年，

will be the worst of centuries.

將會是最慘的世紀。

That's the major conclusion

以上是經濟和氣候

of the report on the economy and climate

主要研究結果的報告，

chaired by ex-President Felipe Calderón of Mexico,

由前墨西哥總統費利佩·卡爾德龍

and I co-chaired that with him,

和我共同主持的會議中提出，

and we handed that report yesterday

昨天在紐約的聯合國大廈

here in New York, in the United Nations Building

提出該報告給

to the Secretary-General of the U.N.,

聯合國秘書長

Ban Ki-moon.

潘基文。

We know that we can do this.

我們知道我們可以這麼做。

Now, two weeks ago,

二週以前，

I became a grandfather for the fourth time.

我的第 4 個孫子出生了，

Our daughter —

我的女兒

(Baby cries) (Laughter) (Applause) —

（嬰兒哭聲）（笑聲）（掌聲）

Our daughter gave birth to Rosa here in New York

二週以前，我女兒在紐約生下羅莎。

two weeks ago. Here are Helen and Rosa.

這是海倫和羅莎。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Two weeks old.

出生二週的孫子。

Are we going to look our grandchildren in the eye

難道我們要看著孫子的眼睛，

and tell them that we understood the issues,

然後告訴孫子們， 我們已明白這些問題，

that we recognized the dangers and the opportunities,

也了解危險及機會，

and still we failed to act?

卻不身體力行？

Surely not. Let's make the next 100 years

當然不會，讓我們的下一個 100 年

the best of centuries.

成為最好的世紀。

(Applause)

（掌聲）