Philip Evans: How data will transform business

翻译人员: Jingdan Niu 校对人员: Ye Lin

I'm going to talk a little bit about strategy

我今天想谈一下战略

and its relationship with technology.

以及它与科技的关系.

We tend to think of business strategy

我们通常认为商业战略

as being a rather abstract body

是一个非常抽象的概念，

of essentially economic thought,

是一个仅仅关于经济的想法。

perhaps rather timeless.

甚至可能是没有终止的。

I'm going to argue that, in fact,

我想对这一观点发出挑战。

business strategy has always been premised

实际上，商业策略都是以

on assumptions about technology,

与科技相关的假设为前提的。

that those assumptions are changing,

那些假设在不断变化中，

and, in fact, changing quite dramatically,

并且实际上变化非常大

and that therefore what that will drive us to

所以这种假设引领的方向

is a different concept of what we mean

和我们原来对于商业策略的概念

by business strategy.

有很大不同

Let me start, if I may,

请允许我

with a little bit of history.

以一小段历史作为开头

The idea of strategy in business

商业领域策略这一概念

owes its origins to two intellectual giants:

起源于两位天才：

Bruce Henderson, the founder of BCG,

BCG的创始人，布鲁斯 亨德森

and Michael Porter, professor at the Harvard Business School.

以及哈佛商学院的教授 迈克尔 波特。

Henderson's central idea was what you might call

亨德森的中心理论是：

the Napoleonic idea of concentrating mass

集中力量

against weakness, of overwhelming the enemy.

对付敌人弱点的拿破仑理念

What Henderson recognized was that,

亨德森认可的是：

in the business world,

在商业领域，

there are many phenomena which are characterized

许多包含被经济学家称作报酬递增

by what economists would call increasing returns --

的现象，比如：

scale, experience.

规模，经历

The more you do of something,

你做的越多

disproportionately the better you get.

会不成比例地获得好的结果

And therefore he found a logic for investing

因此，他发现一种投资逻辑

in such kinds of overwhelming mass

用这种大规模投入

in order to achieve competitive advantage.

以此获得竞争优势

And that was the first introduction

那便是历史上首次

of essentially a military concept of strategy

将军事领域中战术的概念

into the business world.

引入到商业领域。

Porter agreed with that premise,

波特赞同这种假设

but he qualified it.

但他也提出了一些限制理论

He pointed out, correctly, that that's all very well,

他指出，这一假设的确成立

but businesses actually have multiple steps to them.

但是从商业上来说它需要更多的步骤

They have different components,

它们有不同的组成部分

and each of those components might be driven

而且每一个组成部分

by a different kind of strategy.

可能都是由不同的战略引导的

A company or a business might actually be advantaged

一个公司或者经济模式可能在一些活动中占有优势

in some activities but disadvantaged in others.

但可能在另一些活动中有劣势

He formed the concept of the value chain,

他提出了“价值链”这一概念

essentially the sequence of steps with which

实际上，这些步骤的顺序是这样的

a, shall we say, raw material, becomes a component,

比如说，一个原材料成为零部件

becomes assembled into a finished product,

然后被组装成最终产品

and then is distributed, for example,

之后它又被分销出去

and he argued that advantage accrued

他认为优势产生于

to each of those components,

每一个组成部分中

and that the advantage of the whole

而整体的优势

was in some sense the sum or the average

在于所有部分的

of that of its parts.

总和或者平均值

And this idea of the value chain was predicated

这种价值链的观点

on the recognition that

基于对一种理论的认可

what holds a business together is transaction costs,

该理论认为交易成本使商业整体化

that in essence you need to coordinate,

基本上，你需要合作

organizations are more efficient at coordination

这些机构在合作中

than markets, very often,

通常比市场更高效

and therefore the nature and role and boundaries

因此合作的本质、角色和界限

of the cooperation are defined by transaction costs.

被定义为交易成本

It was on those two ideas,

它是基于这两个理念的

Henderson's idea of increasing returns

亨德森关于规模化和经验化

to scale and experience,

增加收益的理念

and Porter's idea of the value chain,

和波特的价值链的理念

encompassing heterogenous elements,

围绕着异质的元素

that the whole edifice of business strategy

这些元素使整个商业战略的大厦

was subsequently erected.

随之建立起来

Now what I'm going to argue is

我现在要反驳的是

that those premises are, in fact, being invalidated.

这些前提实际上渐渐不成立了

First of all, let's think about transaction costs.

首先，我们来看交易成本

There are really two components to transaction costs.

交易成本有两个组成部分

One is about processing information, and the other is about communication.

一个是加工信息，另一个是通信

These are the economics of processing and communicating

这些是加工和通信经济学

as they have evolved over a long period of time.

因为它们已经发展了很长时间

As we all know from so many contexts,

正如我们所知道的

they have been radically transformed

它们从根本上改变了

since the days when Porter and Henderson

从波特和亨德森

first formulated their theories.

首次提出他们的理论时

In particular, since the mid-'90s,

也就是说，从90年代中期开始

communications costs have actually been falling

通信成本已经下降了

even faster than transaction costs,

甚至比交易成本更快地下降

which is why communication, the Internet,

所以通信、互联网才能

has exploded in such a dramatic fashion.

如此迅速地发展

Now, those falling transaction costs

如今，这些下降的交易成本

have profound consequences,

造成了更深远的影响

because if transaction costs are the glue

如果交易成本是

that hold value chains together, and they are falling,

粘合价值链的因素，而且它还在下降

there is less to economize on.

那么可利用的资源就少了

There is less need for vertically integrated organization,

对垂直化整合机构的需求减少了

and value chains at least can break up.

价值链也会随之断裂

They needn't necessarily, but they can.

他们不一定必须断裂，但是很可能

In particular, it then becomes possible for

特别是对于同一商业中的竞争者来说

a competitor in one business

他们就可能

to use their position in one step of the value chain

利用其在价值链中的位置

in order to penetrate or attack

以此来对对手进行渗透、攻击

or disintermediate the competitor in another.

或作非居间化交易

That is not just an abstract proposition.

这不仅是一个抽象的议题

There are many very specific stories

我这里有一些具体的故事

of how that actually happened.

告诉我们这些是如何发生的

A poster child example was the encyclopedia business.

百科全书业就是一个很典型的例子

The encyclopedia business

在皮面精装的时代

in the days of leatherbound books

百科全书行业

was basically a distribution business.

基本上是分销业务

Most of the cost was the commission to the salesmen.

大部分成本都归于销售员的佣金

The CD-ROM and then the Internet came along,

光盘和网络随后盛行

new technologies made the distribution of knowledge

新技术大大降低了

many orders of magnitude cheaper,

知识传播的成本

and the encyclopedia industry collapsed.

百科全书行业随之崩塌

It's now, of course, a very familiar story.

当然，这个故事听上去很熟悉

This, in fact, more generally was the story

实际上这是第一代

of the first generation of the Internet economy.

网络经济的普遍现象

It was about falling transaction costs

这就是交易成本下降

breaking up value chains

使价值链断裂的例子

and therefore allowing disintermediation,

随之而来的是脱媒现象

or what we call deconstruction.

或者说解构理论

One of the questions I was occasionally asked was,

曾经有人问我

well, what's going to replace the encyclopedia

当大英百科全书不再有商业模型的时候

when Britannica no longer has a business model?

什么会取代百科全书？

And it was a while before the answer became manifest.

我被问及这个问题时，答案还没有那么明朗

Now, of course, we know what it is: it's the Wikipedia.

现在，我们当然知道答案就是维基百科

Now what's special about the Wikipedia is not its distribution.

维基百科的特别之处不是在于它的传播模式

What's special about the Wikipedia is the way it's produced.

而是在于它的生产方式

The Wikipedia, of course, is an encyclopedia

维基百科是一种

created by its users.

由用户自己创造的百科全书

And this, in fact, defines what you might call

这实际上就定义了

the second decade of the Internet economy,

第二代网络经济

the decade in which the Internet as a noun

在这十年间，网络有一个名词

became the Internet as a verb.

转变为一个动词

It became a set of conversations,

它成为一系列的转化

the era in which user-generated content and social networks

一个用户创造内容和社交网络

became the dominant phenomenon.

成为主流现象的时代

Now what that really meant

因此

in terms of the Porter-Henderson framework

对于波特-哈德逊体系

was the collapse of certain kinds of economies of scale.

我们通常指的是某种程度上规模经济效益的瓦解

It turned out that tens of thousands

事实证明，由千千万万个

of autonomous individuals writing an encyclopedia

个体自发所写出的百科全书

could do just as good a job,

也是非常出色并不逊于专业人员

and certainly a much cheaper job,

并且由于是自发完成，这一工作

than professionals in a hierarchical organization.

变得比由层级组织中的专业人员完成的更加便宜

So basically what was happening was that one layer

所以

of this value chain was becoming fragmented,

由于个人可以取代曾经由组织或者公司完成的事情

as individuals could take over

价值链中的某一层

where organizations were no longer needed.

已经开始断裂

But there's another question that obviously this graph poses,

但是，从这个表里，可以非常明显地看出有一个问题

which is, okay, we've gone through two decades --

我们已经经历了两个时代——

does anything distinguish the third?

那么这第三个时代有什么不同吗？

And what I'm going to argue is that indeed

那么我将要试图说服你们的是，是的

something does distinguish the third,

这第三个时代确实是与前两个不同

and it maps exactly on to the kind of

并且这种不同

Porter-Henderson logic that we've been talking about.

恰好是我们所说的波特-哈德逊体系逻辑的映射

And that is, about data.

这就是，数据

If we go back to around 2000,

如果我们回到2000年

a lot of people were talking about the information revolution,

许多人都在谈论关于信息变革

and it was indeed true that the world's stock of data

并且这个世界的数据储存

was growing, indeed growing quite fast.

在当时也在增加，并且是飞速的增加

but it was still at that point overwhelmingly analog.

但是在那个时候是可以进行大规模模拟的

We go forward to 2007,

我们前进到2007年

not only had the world's stock of data exploded,

这时候不仅有数据的全球股市发生爆炸

but there'd been this massive substitution

还有数字模拟的

of digital for analog.

大规模替代

And more important even than that,

更重要的是

if you look more carefully at this graph,

如果你仔细看这个表

what you will observe is that about a half

你会发现接近一半的

of that digital data

数据都会有一个

is information that has an I.P. address.

IP地址

It's on a server or it's on a P.C.

这个地址会在服务器上或者个人电脑上

But having an I.P. address means that it

但是有IP地址意味着

can be connected to any other data

它可以连接到任何一个

that has an I.P. address.

有IP地址的数据

It means it becomes possible

这意味着

to put together half of the world's knowledge

将这个世界一半的知识放在一起变为可能

in order to see patterns,

来研究这些配对

an entirely new thing.

一个全新的东西

If we run the numbers forward to today,

如果我们将运行的数字放在今天

it probably looks something like this.

它看起来可能是这个样子

We're not really sure.

我们并不确定

If we run the numbers forward to 2020,

如果我们把他们放在2020年

we of course have an exact number, courtesy of IDC.

我们当然有一个确定的数字，

It's curious that the future is so much more predictable than the present.

非常奇妙的，对于未来的预测将比对现在的预测更加容易

And what it implies is a hundredfold multiplication

这暗示了通过IP地址的连接

in the stock of information that is connected

成百倍乘法的信息

via an I.P. address.

储藏在里面

Now, if the number of connections that we can make

如今，如果这些IP之间的连接数与成对的数据点

is proportional to the number of pairs of data points,

是成比例增加的话

a hundredfold multiplication in the quantity of data

我们看到这个数据中

is a ten-thousandfold multiplication

上百倍的数据数量的增加

in the number of patterns

将会是这些配对的

that we can see in that data,

上千倍增长

this just in the last 10 or 11 years.

而这，仅仅发生在过去的十年到十一年间

This, I would submit, is a sea change,

这个，我可以说，是一个非常海量的变化

a profound change in the economics

在我们所处的这个世界里

of the world that we live in.

这个经济变化是非常深刻的

The first human genome,

在2000年人类的

that of James Watson,

第一个詹姆斯瓦特生的

was mapped as the culmination of the Human Genome Project in the year 2000,

基因图谱的绘制

and it took about 200 million dollars

是人类基因组绘制工程的顶峰

and about 10 years of work to map

它耗费了2亿美元和十年的功夫

just one person's genomic makeup.

才绘制出一个人的基因图谱

Since then, the costs of mapping the genome have come down.

从那之后，绘制基因图谱的花费开始下降

In fact, they've come down in recent years

而事实上，这些年这个花费

very dramatically indeed,

下降得非常厉害

to the point where the cost is now below 1,000 dollars,

现在已经下降到不到1000美元

and it's confidently predicted that by the year 2015

并且我们非常肯定的预测

it will be below 100 dollars --

到2015年这个 花费会下降到100美元——

a five or six order of magnitude drop

基因组绘制的花费

in the cost of genomic mapping

在仅仅15年间

in just a 15-year period,

下降了五个或者六个级数

an extraordinary phenomenon.

这是一个非常不寻常的现象

Now, in the days when mapping a genome

当基因组绘制的花费在百万级别

cost millions, or even tens of thousands,

甚至数亿美元的级别时

it was basically a research enterprise.

绘制组是一个研究机构

Scientists would gather some representative people,

科学家们会搜集一些具有代表性的人

and they would see patterns, and they would try

然后他们会研究这些人的配对

and make generalizations about human nature and disease

最后在这些具体挑选出来的个体中

from the abstract patterns they find

科学家们从找出的抽象配对里

from these particular selected individuals.

概括出人性和疾病

But when the genome can be mapped for 100 bucks,

但是，当基因组绘制

99 dollars while you wait,

只需要100美元，或者99美元立等可取

then what happens is, it becomes retail.

那么这个行业将变成零售业

It becomes above all clinical.

它将成为最重要的临床方式

You go the doctor with a cold,

当你生病去找医生的时候

and if he or she hasn't done it already,

他们会要求你首先做一个基因绘制

the first thing they do is map your genome,

如果你还没有做过

at which point what they're now doing

医生也不再会由一些抽象模糊的

is not starting from some abstract knowledge of genomic medicine

基因药物治疗开始

and trying to work out how it applies to you,

看你适合哪种药物

but they're starting from your particular genome.

而是会直接找到那个具体的基因然后开始治疗

Now think of the power of that.

想想这个东西的能量

Think of where that takes us

想想当我们可以

when we can combine genomic data

将基因数据和

with clinical data

临床数据结合起来

with data about drug interactions

这些临床数据是药物与周围环境交互产生的

with the kind of ambient data that devices

并且这些数据可以通过

like our phone and medical sensors

我们的手机设备和医学仪器

will increasingly be collecting.

进行不断地收集

Think what happens when we collect all of that data

想想当我们可以收集所有的数据

and we can put it together

并且可以将它们放在一起

in order to find patterns we wouldn't see before.

找出我们从来不曾见过的配对组合

This, I would suggest, perhaps it will take a while,

我会觉得，或许需要一段时间

but this will drive a revolution in medicine.

但是这将会是医药界的一次革命

Fabulous, lots of people talk about this.

很多人都觉得这是非常棒的一次革命

But there's one thing that doesn't get much attention.

是这里有一件事并没有引起太多的注意

How is that model of colossal sharing

这个所有类型的数据

across all of those kinds of databases

进行巨大共享的模式

compatible with the business models

如何与所有机构组织和企业

of institutions and organizations and corporations

都参与商业的模式

that are involved in this business today?

进行兼容

If your business is based on proprietary data,

如果你的生意主要以产业数据为基础

if your competitive advantage is defined by your data,

你的竞争优势则在于你的数据

how on Earth is that company or is that society

究竟这个公司或者这个社会

in fact going to achieve the value

如何实现这个

that's implicit in the technology? They can't.

隐藏于技术中的价值？他们不能

So essentially what's happening here,

本质上来说

and genomics is merely one example of this,

基因组绘制仅仅只是一个例子

is that technology is driving

现在技术正在推动

the natural scaling of the activity

商业活动规模的自然形成

beyond the institutional boundaries within which

这一变动超越了我们通常意义下所认识的

we have been used to thinking about it,

机构之间的界限

and in particular beyond the institutional boundaries

尤其是超越了

in terms of which business strategy

由商业战略为纪律

as a discipline is formulated.

而形成的界限

The basic story here is that what used to be

这个故事的基础在于

vertically integrated, oligopolistic competition

曾经是在相似类型的

among essentially similar kinds of competitors

几个主要竞争者之间的

is evolving, by one means or another,

垂直结构、寡头垄断控制下的竞争

from a vertical structure to a horizontal one.

通过一种或者其它的方式，由垂直结构变为了水平结构

Why is that happening?

为什么会有这样的变化？

It's happening because transaction costs are plummeting

这是因为交易成本的急剧下降

and because scale is polarizing.

以及规模的两极分化

The plummeting of transaction costs

交易成本的急剧下降

weakens the glue that holds value chains together,

削弱了使价值链聚集的粘合物

and allows them to separate.

并使价值链分化

The polarization of scale economies

经济规模的两级分化

towards the very small -- small is beautiful --

使规模趋于小型化——小即是美——

allows for scalable communities

得可伸缩的社区经济

to substitute for conventional corporate production.

替代了传统化企业生产

The scaling in the opposite direction,

反规模化的趋势

towards things like big data,

就像大数据

drive the structure of business

促使商业的结构

towards the creation of new kinds of institutions

开始向可以完成这种规模的

that can achieve that scale.

新型机构发展

But either way, the typically vertical structure

但是总之，典型的垂直结构

gets driven to becoming more horizontal.

已经变得越来越水平化

The logic isn't just about big data.

这个逻辑并不仅仅指的大数据

If we were to look, for example, at the telecommunications industry,

比如说，电信通讯行业

you can tell the same story about fiber optics.

或者相同的，纤维光学

If we look at the pharmaceutical industry,

如果我们看一下医药行业

or, for that matter, university research,

或者就此而言，大学研究

you can say exactly the same story

你同样可以由此

about so-called "big science."

得出所谓的“大科学”

And in the opposite direction,

我们来看反方向的

if we look, say, at the energy sector,

比如能源部门

where all the talk is about how households

大家都在讨论如何使家庭

will be efficient producers of green energy

变为绿色能源的有效产生源

and efficient conservers of energy,

和能源的有效利用者

that is, in fact, the reverse phenomenon.

事实上，这是一个相反的现象

That is the fragmentation of scale

正是由于规模化的破碎

because the very small can substitute

而由小规模来替代

for the traditional corporate scale.

传统企业规模

Either way, what we are driven to

总之，我们极力

is this horizontalization of the structure of industries,

想要达到的就是这种产业的水平结构

and that implies fundamental changes

这暗示了我们所认为的

in how we think about strategy.

战略的根本变化

It means, for example, that we need to think

这意味着

about strategy as the curation

我们需要将策略认为是

of these kinds of horizontal structure,

这一类水平结构的管理者

where things like business definition

因为商业定义

and even industry definition

甚至行业定义

are actually the outcomes of strategy,

是战略的成果

not something that the strategy presupposes.

而不是战略的预先假定

It means, for example, we need to work out

因此，我们需要制定出

how to accommodate collaboration

如何同时满足

and competition simultaneously.

合作与竞争

Think about the genome.

思考一下基因普绘制

We need to accommodate the very large

我们需要同时绘制

and the very small simultaneously.

大基因组和小基因组

And we need industry structures

因此，我们需要行业结构

that will accommodate very, very different motivations,

可以同时满足不同的动机

from the amateur motivations of people in communities

从社区中人们的业余动机

to maybe the social motivations

到政府修建基础设施的

of infrastructure built by governments,

社会动机

or, for that matter, cooperative institutions

或者，就此而言，公司

built by companies that are otherwise competing,

以其他方式建立的竞争合作机构

because that is the only way that they can get to scale.

因为这是他们唯一可以进行规模化的方式

These kinds of transformations

这些类型的转变

render the traditional premises of business strategy obsolete.

得商业战略的传统前提变得过时

They drive us into a completely new world.

他们使我们进入一个全新的世界

They require us, whether we are

他们要求我们

in the public sector or the private sector,

不论是在公共部分，还是在私有部分

to think very fundamentally differently

都以一种完全不同的方式

about the structure of business,

来思考商业结构

and, at last, it makes strategy interesting again.

并且，使战略再一次变得有趣生动

Thank you.

谢谢大家

(Applause)

鼓掌