Philip Evans: How data will transform business

Prevoditelj: Igor Pureta Recezent: Ivan Stamenković

I'm going to talk a little bit about strategy

Govorit ću o strategiji

and its relationship with technology.

i njenoj vezi s tehnologijom.

We tend to think of business strategy

Razmišljamo o poslovnoj strategiji

as being a rather abstract body

kao o apstraktnom

of essentially economic thought,

možda bezvremenom tijelu,

perhaps rather timeless.

temeljno ekonomske misli.

I'm going to argue that, in fact,

Vodit ću raspravu da se, ustvari,

business strategy has always been premised

poslovna strategija uvijek povodila

on assumptions about technology,

pretpostavkama o tehnologiji,

that those assumptions are changing,

da se te pretpostavke mijenjaju,

and, in fact, changing quite dramatically,

i da se mijenjaju poprilično dramatično,

and that therefore what that will drive us to

te da je stoga to ono što će nas dovesti

is a different concept of what we mean

do drugačijeg koncepta onoga što smatramo

by business strategy.

poslovnom strategijom.

Let me start, if I may,

Počet ću, ako mogu,

with a little bit of history.

s malo povijesti.

The idea of strategy in business

Ideja strategije u poslu

owes its origins to two intellectual giants:

duguje svoje porijeklo dvama intelektualnim divovima:

Bruce Henderson, the founder of BCG,

Bruceu Hendersonu, osnivaču BCG-a,

and Michael Porter, professor at the Harvard Business School.

i Michaelu Porteru, profesoru na poslovnoj školi Harvard.

Henderson's central idea was what you might call

Hendersonova središnja ideja je ono što biste mogli nazvati

the Napoleonic idea of concentrating mass

Napoleonskom idejom koncentriranja mase

against weakness, of overwhelming the enemy.

protiv slabosti, biti nadmoćan nad protivnikom.

What Henderson recognized was that,

Henderson je prepoznao da

in the business world,

u poslovnom svijetu,

there are many phenomena which are characterized

postoji puno fenomena koji su karakterizirani

by what economists would call increasing returns --

onime što bi ekonomisti prozvali

scale, experience.

povećanjem prinosa, obujmom i iskustvom.

The more you do of something,

Što više radite nešto,

disproportionately the better you get.

postajete neproporcionalno bolji.

And therefore he found a logic for investing

Stoga je našao logiku u investiranju

in such kinds of overwhelming mass

u takve nadmoći nad masama

in order to achieve competitive advantage.

u svrhu postizanja natjecateljske prednosti.

And that was the first introduction

To je bio prvi uvod

of essentially a military concept of strategy

u esencijalno vojnu strategiju

into the business world.

u poslovnom svijetu.

Porter agreed with that premise,

Porter se složio s tom premisom,

but he qualified it.

i dodatno je poboljšao.

He pointed out, correctly, that that's all very well,

Pokazao je, ispravno, da je to sve u redu,

but businesses actually have multiple steps to them.

ali poslovi imaju više stepenica u suštini.

They have different components,

Imaju drugačije komponente,

and each of those components might be driven

i svaka od tih komponenti može biti pokrenuta

by a different kind of strategy.

drugačijom vrstom strategije.

A company or a business might actually be advantaged

Poduzeće ili posao može imati prednost

in some activities but disadvantaged in others.

u nekim pogledima, no izgubiti ih u drugima.

He formed the concept of the value chain,

Stvorio je koncept lanca vrijednosti,

essentially the sequence of steps with which

u osnovi slijed stepenica kojim,

a, shall we say, raw material, becomes a component,

možemo reći, sirov materijal postaje komponenta,

becomes assembled into a finished product,

spaja se u završni proizvod,

and then is distributed, for example,

i distribuirana se.

and he argued that advantage accrued

Raspravljao je da se ta prednost obračunava

to each of those components,

prema svim komponentama,

and that the advantage of the whole

i da je cijela prednost

was in some sense the sum or the average

na neki način zbroj ili prosjek

of that of its parts.

vlastitih dijelova.

And this idea of the value chain was predicated

Ta ideja lanca vrijednosti je izrečena

on the recognition that

prepoznavanjem da

what holds a business together is transaction costs,

ono što drži posao na okupu je cijena transakcija,

that in essence you need to coordinate,

koje ustvari morate koordinirati,

organizations are more efficient at coordination

a organizacije su vrlo često učinkovitije u koordinaciji

than markets, very often,

nego tržište,

and therefore the nature and role and boundaries

i stoga su priroda, uloga i granice

of the cooperation are defined by transaction costs.

kooperacije omeđene cijenama transakcije.

It was on those two ideas,

Na te dvije ideje,

Henderson's idea of increasing returns

Hendersonovoj ideji povećanja prinosa

to scale and experience,

obujmom i iskustvom,

and Porter's idea of the value chain,

i Porterovoj ideji o lancu vrijednosti,

encompassing heterogenous elements,

obuhvaćajući različite elemente,

that the whole edifice of business strategy

na kojima je cijela infrastruktura poslovnih strategija

was subsequently erected.

posljedično izgrađena.

Now what I'm going to argue is

Ono o čemu ću sada raspravljati je

that those premises are, in fact, being invalidated.

da se te premise poništavaju.

First of all, let's think about transaction costs.

Prvo, razmislimo o cijeni transakcija.

There are really two components to transaction costs.

Postoje zapravo dvije sastavnice kod cijene.

One is about processing information, and the other is about communication.

Jedna je razrada informacija, druga je komunikacija.

These are the economics of processing and communicating

To su ekonomije procesa i komunikacija

as they have evolved over a long period of time.

koje su se razvile tijekom dugog vremena.

As we all know from so many contexts,

Kako što svi znamo iz toliko situacija,

they have been radically transformed

teorije su se radikalno promijenile

since the days when Porter and Henderson

od dana kada su Porter i Henderson

first formulated their theories.

formulirali.

In particular, since the mid-'90s,

Specifično, od sredine 90-ih,

communications costs have actually been falling

cijene komuniciranja su padale brže

even faster than transaction costs,

nego troškovi transakcija,

which is why communication, the Internet,

što je razlog zašto su komunikacije, internet,

has exploded in such a dramatic fashion.

eksplodirale na tako dramatičan način.

Now, those falling transaction costs

Taj pad troškova transakcije

have profound consequences,

ima duboke poslijedice,

because if transaction costs are the glue

jer ako su troškovi transakcije ljepilo,

that hold value chains together, and they are falling,

koje drži lance vrijednosti zajedno, a oni padaju,

there is less to economize on.

manja je mogućnost štednje.

There is less need for vertically integrated organization,

Manja je potreba za verikalno integriranu organizaciju,

and value chains at least can break up.

a lanci vrijednosti se mogu i slomiti.

They needn't necessarily, but they can.

Ne moraju nužno, ali mogu.

In particular, it then becomes possible for

Specifično, tada postaje moguće

a competitor in one business

za natjecatelja u jednom poslu

to use their position in one step of the value chain

da iskoristi svoju poziciju u jednoj kariki lanca vrijednosti

in order to penetrate or attack

s razlogom da napadne ili

or disintermediate the competitor in another.

onesposobi natjecatelja u drugom poslu.

That is not just an abstract proposition.

To nije samo apstraktni prijedlog.

There are many very specific stories

Postoji mnogo specifičnih priča

of how that actually happened.

o tome kako se to zapravo dogodilo.

A poster child example was the encyclopedia business.

Tipičan primjer ovoga je posao enciklopedija.

The encyclopedia business

Posao enciklopedija

in the days of leatherbound books

u vremenima knjiga uvezanih u kožu

was basically a distribution business.

je bio distribucijski posao.

Most of the cost was the commission to the salesmen.

Većina cijene je bila provizija prodavaču.

The CD-ROM and then the Internet came along,

Tada su došli CD i Internet,

new technologies made the distribution of knowledge

nove tehnologije za distribuciju znanja

many orders of magnitude cheaper,

višestruko jeftinije,

and the encyclopedia industry collapsed.

i industrija enciklopedija se srušila.

It's now, of course, a very familiar story.

Sada je to, naravno, to vrlo poznata priča.

This, in fact, more generally was the story

Ovo, ustvari, je više bila priča

of the first generation of the Internet economy.

o prvoj generaciji internetske ekonomije.

It was about falling transaction costs

O padanju troškova transakcija,

breaking up value chains

pucanju lanaca vrijednosti

and therefore allowing disintermediation,

i stoga dopuštajući micanje posrednika,

or what we call deconstruction.

ili ono što zovemo dekonstrukcijom.

One of the questions I was occasionally asked was,

Jedno od pitanja koje me povremeno pitaju je,

well, what's going to replace the encyclopedia

što će zamijeniti enciklopediju

when Britannica no longer has a business model?

kada Britannica više ne drži poslovni model?

And it was a while before the answer became manifest.

Prošlo je vremena prije nego što se odgovor počeo nazirati.

Now, of course, we know what it is: it's the Wikipedia.

Sada, naravno, znamo što je: Wikipedia.

Now what's special about the Wikipedia is not its distribution.

Ono što je posebno kod Wikipedije nije njena distribucija.

What's special about the Wikipedia is the way it's produced.

Ono što je posebno kod Wikipedije je način na koji nastaje.

The Wikipedia, of course, is an encyclopedia

Wikipedija je enciklopedija

created by its users.

stvorena od svojih korisnika.

And this, in fact, defines what you might call

To, ustvari, definira ono što možete

the second decade of the Internet economy,

nazvati drugim desetljećem internetske ekonomije,

the decade in which the Internet as a noun

desetljeće u kojem internet kao imenica

became the Internet as a verb.

postaje internet kao glagol.

It became a set of conversations,

Postao je skup razgovora,

the era in which user-generated content and social networks

era u kojoj je sadržaj koji je stvorio korisnik i društvene mreže

became the dominant phenomenon.

postao dominantni fenomen.

Now what that really meant

To je, zapravo, značilo,

in terms of the Porter-Henderson framework

u okvirima rada Portera i Hendersona,

was the collapse of certain kinds of economies of scale.

kolaps određenih vrsta ekonomija obujma.

It turned out that tens of thousands

Ispalo je da deseci tisuća

of autonomous individuals writing an encyclopedia

autonomnih pojedinaca koji pišu enciklopediju

could do just as good a job,

mogu obaviti jednako dobar posao

and certainly a much cheaper job,

i sigurno puno jefitiniji posao,

than professionals in a hierarchical organization.

nego profesionalci u hijerarhijskoj strukturi.

So basically what was happening was that one layer

Ukratko se događalo to da se jedan sloj

of this value chain was becoming fragmented,

ovog lanca vrijednosti raspadao na komade,

as individuals could take over

kako su pojedinci mogli preuzeti

where organizations were no longer needed.

ono gdje organizacije više nisu bile potrebne.

But there's another question that obviously this graph poses,

No ima još jedno pitanje koje graf očito nameće,

which is, okay, we've gone through two decades --

prošli smo kroz dva desetljeća --

does anything distinguish the third?

izdvaja li se što u trećem?

And what I'm going to argue is that indeed

Ono što ću raspravljati je da se

something does distinguish the third,

doista izdvaja nešto,

and it maps exactly on to the kind of

i dolazi točno na

Porter-Henderson logic that we've been talking about.

Porter-Hendersonovu logiku o kojoj smo pričali.

And that is, about data.

A to je, o podacima.

If we go back to around 2000,

Ako se vratimo u 2000.,

a lot of people were talking about the information revolution,

mnogo ljudi je pričalo o informacijskoj revoluciji,

and it was indeed true that the world's stock of data

i istina je bila da se svjetska riznica

was growing, indeed growing quite fast.

informacija rapidno povećava.

but it was still at that point overwhelmingly analog.

No u to vrijeme je to još uvijek bilo iznimno analogno.

We go forward to 2007,

Idemo naprijed, u 2007.,

not only had the world's stock of data exploded,

ne samo da je svjetska riznica eksplodirala,

but there'd been this massive substitution

nego se dogodila i ogromna zamjena

of digital for analog.

digitalnog za analogno.

And more important even than that,

Još važnije je da,

if you look more carefully at this graph,

ako pogledate na ovaj graf,

what you will observe is that about a half

vidjet ćete da otprilike

of that digital data

pola digitalnih podataka

is information that has an I.P. address.

su informacije s IP adresom.

It's on a server or it's on a P.C.

Na serveru je ili je na računalu.

But having an I.P. address means that it

Imati IP adresu znači da

can be connected to any other data

može biti spojeno s bilo kojim drugim podacima

that has an I.P. address.

koji imaju IP adresu.

It means it becomes possible

Znači da postaje moguće

to put together half of the world's knowledge

složiti pola svjetskog znanja

in order to see patterns,

u službu dobivanja uzorka.

an entirely new thing.

Potpuno nova stvar.

If we run the numbers forward to today,

Ako pogledamo brojeve danas,

it probably looks something like this.

izgledat će vjerojatno ovako.

We're not really sure.

Nismo točno sigurni.

If we run the numbers forward to 2020,

Ako pogledamo brojeve za 2020.,

we of course have an exact number, courtesy of IDC.

imamo potpuno točan broj, zahvaljujući IDC-u.

It's curious that the future is so much more predictable than the present.

Zanimljivo je da je budućnost toliko predvidljivija nego sadašnjost.

And what it implies is a hundredfold multiplication

To implicira da postoji neizmjerni broj

in the stock of information that is connected

na skladištu informacija koje je spojeno

via an I.P. address.

putem IP adrese.

Now, if the number of connections that we can make

Ako je broj poveznica koje napravimo

is proportional to the number of pairs of data points,

proporcionalan broju parova podatkovnih čvorova,

a hundredfold multiplication in the quantity of data

množenje sa sto u broju podataka

is a ten-thousandfold multiplication

je množenje sa deset tisuća

in the number of patterns

u broju uzoraka

that we can see in that data,

koje možemo vidjeti u tim podacima.

this just in the last 10 or 11 years.

Ovo je samo zadnjih 10 - 11 godina.

This, I would submit, is a sea change,

Ovo, rekao bih, je ogromna promjena,

a profound change in the economics

duboka promjena u ekonomiji

of the world that we live in.

svijeta u kojem živimo.

The first human genome,

Prvi ljudski genom,

that of James Watson,

onaj Jamesa Watsona,

was mapped as the culmination of the Human Genome Project in the year 2000,

je mapiran kao vrh Projekta ljudkog genoma u 2000.,

and it took about 200 million dollars

i trebalo je oko 200 milijuna dolara

and about 10 years of work to map

i oko 10 godina rada za mapiranje

just one person's genomic makeup.

genoma jedne osobe.

Since then, the costs of mapping the genome have come down.

Otada, cijene mapiranja genoma su se smanjile.

In fact, they've come down in recent years

Ustvari, zadnjih godina

very dramatically indeed,

su se drastično smanjile,

to the point where the cost is now below 1,000 dollars,

toliko da je danas cijena ispod 1,000 dolara,

and it's confidently predicted that by the year 2015

i sa sigurnošću se tvrdi da će do 2015.

it will be below 100 dollars --

biti ispod 100 dolara --

a five or six order of magnitude drop

pad od 5 ili 6 znamenki

in the cost of genomic mapping

u cijeni mapiranja genoma

in just a 15-year period,

u samo 15 godina,

an extraordinary phenomenon.

izniman fenomen.

Now, in the days when mapping a genome

U danima kada mapiranje genoma

cost millions, or even tens of thousands,

košta milijune ili čak desetke tisuća,

it was basically a research enterprise.

u njegovoj osnovi je istraživačko poduzeće.

Scientists would gather some representative people,

Znanstvenici bi skupili reprezentativne ljude,

and they would see patterns, and they would try

vidjeli bi uzorke i

and make generalizations about human nature and disease

pokušali naći generalizacije u vezi ljudske prirode i bolesti

from the abstract patterns they find

iz apstraktnih uzoraka koje nađu

from these particular selected individuals.

kod tih posebno izabranih pojedinaca.

But when the genome can be mapped for 100 bucks,

No, kada genom može biti mapiran za 100 dolara,

99 dollars while you wait,

99 dolara dok čekate,

then what happens is, it becomes retail.

tada se događa da to postaje maloprodaja.

It becomes above all clinical.

Postaje iznad svega kliničkog.

You go the doctor with a cold,

Dolazite doktoru s prehladom,

and if he or she hasn't done it already,

i ako već nisu,

the first thing they do is map your genome,

prva stvar koju naprave je da mapiraju vaš genom

at which point what they're now doing

i u tom slučaju

is not starting from some abstract knowledge of genomic medicine

ne počinju iz apstraktnog znanja o medicini genoma

and trying to work out how it applies to you,

i pokušavaju shvatiti kako to koristiti na vama

but they're starting from your particular genome.

već počinju iz vašeg genoma.

Now think of the power of that.

Razmislite o moći toga.

Think of where that takes us

Razmislite kuda nas vodi

when we can combine genomic data

kada možemo spojiti podatke iz genoma

with clinical data

s kliničkim podacima

with data about drug interactions

s podacima o uzimanim lijekovima

with the kind of ambient data that devices

s ambijentalnim podacima koje će uređaji

like our phone and medical sensors

kao što su mobiteli i medicinski

will increasingly be collecting.

senzori sve više skupljati.

Think what happens when we collect all of that data

Razmislite što se dogodi kada skupimo sve podatke

and we can put it together

i stavimo ih zajedno

in order to find patterns we wouldn't see before.

u cilju pronalaska uzoraka koje inače ne bismo vidjeli.

This, I would suggest, perhaps it will take a while,

Ovo će, iako će trebati vremena,

but this will drive a revolution in medicine.

pokrenuti revoluciju u medicini.

Fabulous, lots of people talk about this.

Čudesno, mnogo ljudi priča o ovome.

But there's one thing that doesn't get much attention.

No jedna stvar nije u centru pažnje.

How is that model of colossal sharing

Kako je taj model kolosalnog dijeljenja

across all of those kinds of databases

preko svih vrsta baza podataka

compatible with the business models

sukladan poslovnim modelima

of institutions and organizations and corporations

institucija, organizacija i korporacija

that are involved in this business today?

koje su uključene u posao danas?

If your business is based on proprietary data,

Ako je vaš posao baziran na vlasničkim podacima,

if your competitive advantage is defined by your data,

ako je vaša natjecateljska prednost definirana podacima,

how on Earth is that company or is that society

kako će to poduzeće ili to društvo

in fact going to achieve the value

dostići vrijednost

that's implicit in the technology? They can't.

koja je implicirana u tehnologiji? Ne mogu.

So essentially what's happening here,

Ukratko, što se ovdje događa,

and genomics is merely one example of this,

a genom je samo jedan primjer ovoga,

is that technology is driving

je da tehnologija predvodi

the natural scaling of the activity

prirodno mjerenje aktivnosti

beyond the institutional boundaries within which

iznad institucijskih granica, unutar kojih

we have been used to thinking about it,

smo naučeni razmišljati,

and in particular beyond the institutional boundaries

i specifično iznad institucijskih granica

in terms of which business strategy

u pogledu koja je poslovna strategija

as a discipline is formulated.

kao disciplina, formulirana.

The basic story here is that what used to be

Osnovna priča ovdje je da ono što je bilo

vertically integrated, oligopolistic competition

vertikalno integrirano, oligopolsko natjecanje

among essentially similar kinds of competitors

između sličnih vrsta natjecatelja

is evolving, by one means or another,

se razvija, na ovaj ili onaj način,

from a vertical structure to a horizontal one.

iz vertikalne u horizontalnu strukturu.

Why is that happening?

Zašto se to događa?

It's happening because transaction costs are plummeting

Događa se jer se troškovi transakcija srozavaju

and because scale is polarizing.

i jer se razmjer polarizira.

The plummeting of transaction costs

Pad troškova transakcija

weakens the glue that holds value chains together,

oslabljuje ljepilo koje drži lance vrijednosti,

and allows them to separate.

i dopušta im da se odvoje.

The polarization of scale economies

Polarizacija razmjera ekonomije

towards the very small -- small is beautiful --

prema vrlo malom - malo je predivno -

allows for scalable communities

dopušta zajednicama promjenjive veličine

to substitute for conventional corporate production.

da budu zamjena za konvencionalnu proizvodnju poduzeća.

The scaling in the opposite direction,

Razmjer u suprotnom pogledu,

towards things like big data,

prema velikim stvarima kao podacima,

drive the structure of business

predvodi strukturu posla

towards the creation of new kinds of institutions

prema stvaranju novih vrsta institucija

that can achieve that scale.

koje mogu dostići taj razmjer.

But either way, the typically vertical structure

Bilo kako, tipično vertikalna struktura

gets driven to becoming more horizontal.

prelazi u horizontalnu.

The logic isn't just about big data.

Logika nije valjana samo oko puno podataka.

If we were to look, for example, at the telecommunications industry,

Ako gledamo, primjerice, industriju telekomunikacija,

you can tell the same story about fiber optics.

možete reći istu priču za optička vlakna.

If we look at the pharmaceutical industry,

Ako gledamo farmacijsku industriju,

or, for that matter, university research,

ili sveučilišno istraživanje,

you can say exactly the same story

možete reći identičnu priču

about so-called "big science."

oko takozvane "velike znanosti".

And in the opposite direction,

U suprotnom smjeru,

if we look, say, at the energy sector,

ako gledamo, recimo, energetski sektor,

where all the talk is about how households

gdje svi pričaju kako će domaćinstva

will be efficient producers of green energy

biti uspješni proizvođači zelene energije

and efficient conservers of energy,

i uspješni čuvari energije,

that is, in fact, the reverse phenomenon.

to je obrnuti fenomen.

That is the fragmentation of scale

To je fragmentacija razmjera

because the very small can substitute

jer oni vrlo maleni mogu zamjeniti

for the traditional corporate scale.

tradicionalne razmjere poduzeća.

Either way, what we are driven to

Bilo kako, ono prema čemu idemo

is this horizontalization of the structure of industries,

je horizontalizacija industrijskih struktura,

and that implies fundamental changes

a to implicira temeljne promjene

in how we think about strategy.

u onome kako razmišljamo o strategiji.

It means, for example, that we need to think

To znači, primjerice, da trebamo razmišljati

about strategy as the curation

o strategiji kao očuvanju

of these kinds of horizontal structure,

ovih vrsta horizontalnih struktura,

where things like business definition

gdje su stvari kao definicija posla

and even industry definition

ili čak industrije

are actually the outcomes of strategy,

zapravo ishodi strategije,

not something that the strategy presupposes.

ne nešto što strategije prethodno prepostavlja.

It means, for example, we need to work out

Znači da moramo shvatiti

how to accommodate collaboration

kako istovremeno uskladiti suradnju

and competition simultaneously.

i natjecanje.

Think about the genome.

Razmislite o genomu.

We need to accommodate the very large

Moramo uskladiti vrlo veliko

and the very small simultaneously.

i vrlo malo istovremeno.

And we need industry structures

I trebamo industrijske strukture

that will accommodate very, very different motivations,

koje će uskladiti vrlo različite motivacije

from the amateur motivations of people in communities

od amaterskih kod ljudi iz zajednica

to maybe the social motivations

do možda socijalnih motivacija

of infrastructure built by governments,

vladinih infrastruktura,

or, for that matter, cooperative institutions

ili kooperativnih institucija

built by companies that are otherwise competing,

izgrađenih od poduzeća koje su inače konkurenti,

because that is the only way that they can get to scale.

jer je to jedini način da postignu obujam.

These kinds of transformations

Ove vrste preobrazbi

render the traditional premises of business strategy obsolete.

predstavljaju tradicionalne premise poslovnih strategija kao zastarjele.

They drive us into a completely new world.

Vode nas u potpuno novi svijet.

They require us, whether we are

Traže od nas, gdje god da jesmo,

in the public sector or the private sector,

u privatnom ili javnom sektoru,

to think very fundamentally differently

da razmišljamo temeljno drugačije

about the structure of business,

o strukturama posla,

and, at last, it makes strategy interesting again.

i na kraju, to čini strategiju ponovo zanimljivom.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)