Philip Evans: How data will transform business

374,590 views ใƒป 2014-04-18

TED


ืื ื ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ืœืžื˜ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ.

ืžืชืจื’ื: Ido Dekkers ืžื‘ืงืจ: Tal Dekkers
00:12
I'm going to talk a little bit about strategy
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ืื ื™ ืขื•ืžื“ ืœื“ื‘ืจ ืžืขื˜ ืขืœ ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื”
00:14
and its relationship with technology.
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ื•ื”ื™ื—ืก ืฉืœื” ืขื ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื”.
00:18
We tend to think of business strategy
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ืื ื—ื ื• ื ื•ื˜ื™ื ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืขืœ ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื•ืช ืขืกืงื™ื•ืช
00:21
as being a rather abstract body
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ื›ื’ื•ืฃ ืžื•ืคืฉื˜
00:23
of essentially economic thought,
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ืฉืœ ืžื—ืฉื‘ื” ื›ืœื›ืœื™ืช ื‘ืขื™ืงืจื•ืŸ,
00:25
perhaps rather timeless.
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ืื•ืœื™ ื“ื™ ื—ืกืจื•ืช ื–ืžืŸ.
00:27
I'm going to argue that, in fact,
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ืื ื™ ืขื•ืžื“ ืœื˜ืขื•ืŸ, ืฉืœืžืขืฉื”,
00:28
business strategy has always been premised
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ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื•ืช ืขืกืงื™ื•ืช ืชืžื™ื“ ื”ื•ื ื—ื•
00:31
on assumptions about technology,
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ืขืœ ื”ื ื—ื•ืช ืฉื ื•ื’ืขื•ืช ืœื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื”,
00:33
that those assumptions are changing,
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ืฉื”ื”ื ื—ื•ืช ื”ืืœื• ืžืฉืชื ื•ืช,
00:35
and, in fact, changing quite dramatically,
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ื•ืœืžืขืฉื”, ืžืฉืชื ื•ืช ื“ื™ ื“ืจืžื˜ื™ืช,
00:38
and that therefore what that will drive us to
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ื•ืœื›ืŸ ืœืืŸ ืฉื–ื” ื™ืงื— ืื•ืชื ื•
00:41
is a different concept of what we mean
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ื–ื• ืงื•ื ืกืคื˜ ืื—ืจ ืžืžื” ืฉื”ืชื›ื•ื•ื ื•
00:44
by business strategy.
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ื‘ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื” ืขืกืงื™ืช.
00:47
Let me start, if I may,
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ืชื ื• ืœื™ ืœื”ืชื—ื™ืœ, ืื ื™ื•ืจืฉื” ืœื™,
00:48
with a little bit of history.
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ืขื ืžืขื˜ ื”ืกื˜ื•ืจื™ื”.
00:51
The idea of strategy in business
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ื”ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ืฉืœ ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื” ื‘ืขืกืงื™ื
00:53
owes its origins to two intellectual giants:
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ืžืงื•ืจื” ื‘ืฉื ื™ ืขื ืงื™ื ืื™ื ื˜ืœืงื˜ื•ืืœื™ื:
00:56
Bruce Henderson, the founder of BCG,
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ื‘ืจื•ืก ื”ื ื“ืจืกื•ืŸ, ื”ืžื™ื™ืกื“ ืฉืœ BCG,
00:58
and Michael Porter, professor at the Harvard Business School.
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ื•ืžื™ื™ืงืœ ืคื•ืจื˜ืจ, ืคืจื•ืคืกื•ืจ ื‘ื‘ื™ืช ื”ืกืคืจ ืœืขืกืงื™ื ืฉืœ ื”ืืจื•ื•ืืจื“.
01:02
Henderson's central idea was what you might call
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ื”ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ื”ืžืจื›ื–ื™ ืฉืœ ื”ื ื“ืจืกื•ืŸ ื”ื™ื” ืฉืืชื ืื•ืœื™ ืชืงืจืื•
01:05
the Napoleonic idea of concentrating mass
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ืœืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ื”ื ืคื•ืœืื•ื ื™ ืฉืœ ืจื™ื›ื•ื– ืžืืกื”
01:08
against weakness, of overwhelming the enemy.
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ืžื•ืœ ื—ื•ืœืฉื”, ืฉืœ ืœื’ื‘ื•ืจ ืขืœ ื”ืื•ื™ื™ื‘.
01:10
What Henderson recognized was that,
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ืžื” ืฉื”ื ื“ืจืกื•ืŸ ื”ื‘ื™ืŸ ื”ื™ื”,
01:12
in the business world,
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ืฉื‘ืขื•ืœื ื”ืขืกืงื™,
01:14
there are many phenomena which are characterized
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ื™ืฉ ื”ืจื‘ื” ืชื•ืคืขื•ืช ืฉืžืื•ืคื™ื™ื ื•ืช
01:16
by what economists would call increasing returns --
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ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื” ืฉื›ืœื›ืœื ื™ื ื”ื™ื• ืงื•ืจืื™ื ืœื• ื”ื—ื–ืจื™ื ื’ื“ืœื™ื --
01:18
scale, experience.
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ื’ื•ื“ืœ, ื ื™ืกื™ื•ืŸ.
01:20
The more you do of something,
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ื›ืžื” ืฉืชืขืฉื• ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžืžืฉื”ื•,
01:22
disproportionately the better you get.
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ืืชื ืžืฉืชืคืจื™ื ื‘ืฆื•ืจื” ืœื ืคืจื•ืคื•ืจืฆื™ื•ื ืœื™ืช.
01:24
And therefore he found a logic for investing
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ื•ืœื›ืŸ ื”ื•ื ืžืฆื ื”ื’ื™ื•ืŸ ื‘ืœื”ืฉืงื™ืข
01:27
in such kinds of overwhelming mass
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ื‘ืžืืกื•ืช ืื“ื™ืจื•ืช ื›ืืœื”
01:30
in order to achieve competitive advantage.
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืฉื™ื’ ื™ืชืจื•ืŸ ืชื—ืจื•ืชื™.
01:32
And that was the first introduction
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ื•ื–ื• ื”ื™ืชื” ื”ื”ืฆื’ื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื”
01:34
of essentially a military concept of strategy
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ืฉืœ ืงื•ื ืกืคื˜ ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ ืฆื‘ืื™
01:37
into the business world.
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ืœืขื•ืœื ื”ืขืกืงื™.
01:40
Porter agreed with that premise,
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ืคื•ืจื˜ืจ ื”ืกื›ื™ื ืขื ื”ื”ื ื—ื” ื”ื–ื•,
01:43
but he qualified it.
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ื•ื ื”ืขืจื™ืš ืื•ืชื”.
01:44
He pointed out, correctly, that that's all very well,
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ื”ื•ื ื”ืจืื”, ื‘ืฆื“ืง, ืฉื›ืœ ื–ื” ื ื›ื•ืŸ,
01:47
but businesses actually have multiple steps to them.
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ืื‘ืœ ืœืขืกืงื™ื ื™ืฉ ืœืžืขืฉื” ืฉืœื‘ื™ื ืจื‘ื™ื ื‘ืชื•ื›ื.
01:51
They have different components,
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ื™ืฉ ืœื”ื ื—ืœืงื™ื ืฉื•ื ื™ื,
01:53
and each of those components might be driven
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ื•ื›ืœ ื”ื—ืœืงื™ื ื”ืืœื” ืื•ืœื™ ืžื•ื ืขื™ื
01:55
by a different kind of strategy.
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ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื” ืฉื•ื ื”.
01:57
A company or a business might actually be advantaged
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ื—ื‘ืจื” ืื• ืขืกืง ืื•ืœื™ ื™ืงื‘ืœื• ื™ืชืจื•ืŸ
01:59
in some activities but disadvantaged in others.
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ื‘ืคืขื™ืœื•ื™ื•ืช ืฉื•ื ื•ืช ืื‘ืœ ื—ื™ืกืจื•ืŸ ื‘ืื—ืจื•ืช.
02:03
He formed the concept of the value chain,
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ื”ื•ื ื ื™ืกื— ืืช ื”ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ืฉืœ ืฉืจืฉืจืช ื”ืขืจืš,
02:05
essentially the sequence of steps with which
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ื‘ืขื™ืงืจื•ืŸ ื”ืชื”ืœื™ืš ืฉืœ ืฉืœื‘ื™ื ื‘ื”ื,
02:08
a, shall we say, raw material, becomes a component,
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ื”ื‘ื” ื ื’ื™ื“, ื—ื•ืžืจ ื’ืก, ื”ื•ืคืš ืœืจื›ื™ื‘ื™ื,
02:11
becomes assembled into a finished product,
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ื”ื•ืคื›ื™ื ืœืžื•ืจื›ื‘ื™ื ืœืžื•ืฆืจ ืžื•ื’ืžืจ,
02:12
and then is distributed, for example,
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ื•ืื– ืžื•ืคืฆื™ื, ืœื“ื•ื’ืžื”,
02:15
and he argued that advantage accrued
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ื•ื”ื˜ื™ืขื•ืŸ ืฉื™ืชืจื•ืŸ ืžืฆื˜ื‘ืจ
02:18
to each of those components,
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ื‘ื›ืœ ืื—ื“ ืžื”ืจื›ื™ื‘ื™ื ื”ืืœื”,
02:19
and that the advantage of the whole
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ื•ืฉื”ื™ืชืจื•ืŸ ืฉืœ ื”ืฉืœื
02:21
was in some sense the sum or the average
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ื”ื™ื” ื‘ืžื•ื‘ืŸ ืžืกื•ื™ื™ื ื”ืกื›ื•ื ืื• ื”ืžืžื•ืฆืข
02:23
of that of its parts.
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ืฉืœ ื”ื—ืœืงื™ื.
02:25
And this idea of the value chain was predicated
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ื•ื”ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ื”ื–ื” ืฉืœ ืฉืจืฉืจืช ืขืจืš ื”ื•ืขืœื”
02:28
on the recognition that
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ืžื”ื”ื›ืจื”
02:30
what holds a business together is transaction costs,
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ืžื” ืฉืžื—ื–ื™ืง ืืช ื”ืขืกืง ื™ื—ื“ ื”ื•ื ืขืœื•ื™ื•ืช ืขืกืงื”,
02:34
that in essence you need to coordinate,
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ืฉื‘ืขื™ืงืจื•ืŸ ืืชื ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœืชืื,
02:36
organizations are more efficient at coordination
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ืืจื’ื•ื ื™ื ื™ื•ืชืจ ื™ืขื™ืœื™ื ื‘ืชืื•ื
02:39
than markets, very often,
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ืžืฉื•ื•ืงื™ื, ื”ืจื‘ื” ืคืขืžื™ื,
02:41
and therefore the nature and role and boundaries
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ื•ืœื›ืŸ ื”ื˜ื‘ืข ื•ื”ืชืคืงื™ื“ ื•ื”ื’ื‘ื•ืœื•ืช
02:44
of the cooperation are defined by transaction costs.
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ืฉืœ ืฉื™ืชื•ืฃ ื”ืคืขื•ืœื” ืžื•ื’ื“ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืขืœื•ื™ื•ืช ืขืกืงื”.
02:47
It was on those two ideas,
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ืขืœ ื‘ืกื™ืก ื”ืจืขื™ื•ื ื•ืช ื”ืืœื”,
02:50
Henderson's idea of increasing returns
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ื”ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ืฉืœ ื”ื ื“ืจืกื•ืŸ ืฉืœ ื”ื—ื–ืจื™ื ื’ื“ืœื™ื
02:53
to scale and experience,
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ืขืœ ื’ื•ื“ืœ ื•ื ืกื™ื•ืŸ,
02:55
and Porter's idea of the value chain,
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ื•ื”ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ืฉืœ ืคื•ืจื˜ืจ ืขืœ ืฉืจืฉืจืช ื”ืขืจืš,
02:57
encompassing heterogenous elements,
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ืžื›ื™ืœื™ื ืืœืžื ื˜ื™ื ื”ื˜ืจื•ื’ื ื™ื™ื,
02:59
that the whole edifice of business strategy
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ืฉื›ืœ ื”ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ืฉืœ ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื” ืขืกืงื™ืช
03:03
was subsequently erected.
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ื”ื•ืงื ืœื‘ืกื•ืฃ.
03:05
Now what I'm going to argue is
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ืžื” ืฉืื ื™ ืขื•ืžื“ ืœื˜ืขื•ืŸ ื–ื”
03:08
that those premises are, in fact, being invalidated.
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ืฉื”ื”ื ื—ื•ืช ื”ืืœื•, ืœืžืขืฉื”, ืžื•ื›ื—ื•ืช ื›ืœื ื ื›ื•ื ื•ืช.
03:14
First of all, let's think about transaction costs.
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ืจืืฉื™ืช, ื‘ื•ืื• ื ื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืขืœ ืขืœื•ื™ื•ืช ืฉืœ ืคืขื•ืœื•ืช.
03:16
There are really two components to transaction costs.
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ื™ืฉ ืœืžืขืฉื” ืฉื ื™ ืจื›ื™ื‘ื™ื ืœืขืœื•ื™ื•ืช ืคืขื•ืœื•ืช.
03:19
One is about processing information, and the other is about communication.
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ืื—ื“ ื ื•ื’ืข ืœืขื™ื‘ื•ื“ ืžื™ื“ืข, ื•ื”ืฉื ื™ ื ื•ื’ืข ืœืชืงืฉื•ืจืช.
03:21
These are the economics of processing and communicating
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ืืœื” ื”ืชื—ืฉื™ื‘ื™ื ืฉืœ ืขื™ื‘ื•ื“ ื•ืชืงืฉื•ืจืช
03:25
as they have evolved over a long period of time.
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ื›ืžื• ืฉื”ื ื”ืชืคืชื—ื• ื‘ืžืฉืš ืชืงื•ืคื” ืืจื•ื›ื”.
03:27
As we all know from so many contexts,
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ื›ืžื• ืฉื›ื•ืœื ื• ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืžื›ืœ ื›ืš ื”ืจื‘ื” ื”ืงืฉืจื™ื,
03:30
they have been radically transformed
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ื”ื ื”ืฉืชื ื• ื‘ืงื™ืฆื•ื ื™ื•ืช
03:32
since the days when Porter and Henderson
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ืžืื– ืฉืคื•ืจื˜ืจ ื•ื”ื ื“ืจืกื•ืŸ
03:35
first formulated their theories.
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ื”ืขืœื• ืœืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืืช ื”ืชืื•ืจื™ื•ืช ื”ืืœื”.
03:37
In particular, since the mid-'90s,
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ื‘ืขื™ืงืจ, ืžืื– ืืžืฆืข ืฉื ื•ืช ื” 90,
03:39
communications costs have actually been falling
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ืขืœื•ื™ื•ืช ืชืงืฉื•ืจืช ื ืคืœื• ืœืžืขืฉื”
03:41
even faster than transaction costs,
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ืืคื™ืœื• ืžื”ืจ ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžืขืœื•ื™ื•ืช ื”ืคืขื•ืœื•ืช,
03:43
which is why communication, the Internet,
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ืœื›ืŸ ืชืงืฉื•ืจืช, ื”ืื™ื ื˜ืจื˜,
03:45
has exploded in such a dramatic fashion.
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ื’ื“ืœ ื‘ืฆื•ืจื” ื›ืœ ื›ืš ื“ืจืžื˜ื™ืช.
03:50
Now, those falling transaction costs
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื•, ืœืขืœื•ื™ื•ืช ื”ืชืงืฉื•ืจืช ื”ื ื•ืคืœื•ืช ื”ืืœื•
03:52
have profound consequences,
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ื™ืฉ ื”ืฉืคืขื•ืช ืžืฉืžืขื•ืชื™ื•ืช,
03:54
because if transaction costs are the glue
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ืžืคื ื™ ืฉืื ืขืœื•ื™ื•ืช ื”ืคืขื•ืœื•ืช ื”ืŸ ื”ื“ื‘ืง
03:56
that hold value chains together, and they are falling,
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ืฉืžื—ื–ื™ืง ืืช ืฉืจืฉืจืช ื”ืขืจืš, ื•ื”ืŸ ื ื•ืคืœื•ืช,
03:58
there is less to economize on.
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ื™ืฉ ืคื—ื•ืช ืœืกืžื•ืš ืขืœื™ื• ืžื‘ื—ื™ื ื” ื›ืœื›ืœื™ืช.
04:00
There is less need for vertically integrated organization,
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ื™ืฉ ืคื—ื•ืช ืฆื•ืจืš ื‘ืืจื’ื•ื ื™ื ืžืฉื•ืœื‘ื™ื ืื ื›ื™ืช,
04:03
and value chains at least can break up.
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ื•ืฉืจืฉืจืื•ืช ืขืจืš ื™ื›ื•ืœื•ืช ืœืคื—ื•ืช ืœื”ืฉื‘ืจ.
04:06
They needn't necessarily, but they can.
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ื”ื ืœื ื™ืชืคืจืงื• ื‘ื”ื›ืจื—, ืื‘ืœ ื”ื ื™ื›ื•ืœื•ืช.
04:08
In particular, it then becomes possible for
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ื‘ืžื™ื•ื—ื“, ื–ื” ื ืขืฉื” ืืคืฉืจื™ ืื–
04:10
a competitor in one business
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ืœืžืชื—ืจื” ื‘ืขืกืง ืื—ื“
04:12
to use their position in one step of the value chain
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ืœื”ืฉืชืžืฉ ื‘ืžื™ืงื•ื ืฉืœื”ื ื‘ืื—ื“ ื”ืฉืœื‘ื™ื ืฉืœ ืฉืจืฉืจืช ื”ืขืจืš
04:15
in order to penetrate or attack
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœื—ื“ื•ืจ ืื• ืœืชืงื•ืฃ
04:17
or disintermediate the competitor in another.
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ืื• ืœื”ื—ืœื™ืฉ ืืช ื”ืžืชื—ืจื” ืฉืœื• ื‘ืื—ืจ.
04:20
That is not just an abstract proposition.
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ื–ื• ืœื ืจืง ื”ืฆืขื” ืžื•ืคืฉื˜ืช.
04:23
There are many very specific stories
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ื™ืฉ ื”ืจื‘ื” ืกื™ืคื•ืจื™ื ืกืคืฆื™ืคื™ื™ื
04:25
of how that actually happened.
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ืขืœ ืื™ืš ื–ื” ืงืจื” ืœืžืขืฉื”.
04:27
A poster child example was the encyclopedia business.
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ื“ื•ื’ืžื” ืžื•ืคืชื™ืช ืœื–ื” ื”ื™ืชื” ืขืกืง ื”ืื ืฆื™ืงืœื•ืคื“ื™ื•ืช.
04:30
The encyclopedia business
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ืขืกืง ื”ืื ืฆื™ืงืœื•ืคื“ื™ื•ืช
04:31
in the days of leatherbound books
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ื‘ื™ืžื™ ื”ืกืคืจื™ื ื›ืจื•ื›ื™ ื”ืขื•ืจ
04:34
was basically a distribution business.
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ื”ื™ื” ื‘ืขื™ืงืจื•ืŸ ืขืกืง ืฉืœ ื”ืคืฆื”.
04:35
Most of the cost was the commission to the salesmen.
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ืจื•ื‘ ื”ืขืœื•ื™ื•ืช ื”ื™ื• ื”ืขืžืœื” ืœืกื•ื›ืŸ.
04:38
The CD-ROM and then the Internet came along,
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ื”ื“ื™ืกืง ื•ืื– ื”ืื™ื ื˜ืจื ื˜ ื”ื’ื™ืขื•,
04:40
new technologies made the distribution of knowledge
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ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื•ืช ื—ื“ืฉื•ืช ื”ืคื›ื• ืืช ื”ื”ืคืฆื” ืฉืœ ื”ื™ื“ืข
04:44
many orders of magnitude cheaper,
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ืœื–ื•ืœื•ืช ื‘ื›ืžื” ืจืžื•ืช,
04:46
and the encyclopedia industry collapsed.
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ื•ืขืกืงื™ ื”ืื ืฆื™ืงืœื•ืคื“ื™ื•ืช ืงืจืกื•.
04:49
It's now, of course, a very familiar story.
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ื–ื” ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ ืกื™ืคื•ืจ ืžืื•ื“ ืžื•ื›ืจ.
04:52
This, in fact, more generally was the story
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ื–ื”, ืœืžืขืฉื”, ื”ื™ื” ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ื›ืœืœื™ ื”ืกื™ืคื•ืจ
04:54
of the first generation of the Internet economy.
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ืฉืœ ื”ื“ื•ืจ ื”ืจืืฉื•ืŸ ืฉืœ ื›ืœื›ืœืช ื”ืื™ื ื˜ืจื ื˜.
04:56
It was about falling transaction costs
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ื–ื” ื ื’ืข ืœื ืคื™ืœื” ื‘ืขืœื•ื™ื•ืช
04:58
breaking up value chains
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ื•ืฉื‘ื™ืจืช ืฉืจืฉืจืช ื”ืขืจืš
05:00
and therefore allowing disintermediation,
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ื•ืœื›ืŸ ืื™ืคืฉืจื” ื‘ื™ื˜ื•ืœ ื”ืชื™ื•ื•ืš,
05:02
or what we call deconstruction.
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ืื• ืžื” ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืงื•ืจืื™ื ืœื• ืคื™ืจื•ืง ืœืจื›ื™ื‘ื™ื.
05:05
One of the questions I was occasionally asked was,
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ืื—ืช ื”ืฉืืœื•ืช ืฉื ืฉืืœืช ืœืคืขืžื™ื ื”ื™ืชื”,
05:07
well, what's going to replace the encyclopedia
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ื•ื‘ื›ืŸ, ืžื” ื™ื—ืœื™ืฃ ืืช ื”ืื ืฆื™ืงืœื•ืคื“ื™ื”
05:10
when Britannica no longer has a business model?
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ื›ืฉืœื‘ืจื™ื˜ื ื™ืงื” ืœื ื™ื”ื™ื” ืขื•ื“ ืžื•ื“ืœ ืขืกืงื™?
05:12
And it was a while before the answer became manifest.
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ื•ืขื‘ืจ ื–ืžืŸ ืžื” ืœืคื ื™ ืฉื”ืชืฉื•ื‘ื” ื”ืชืžืžืฉื”.
05:14
Now, of course, we know what it is: it's the Wikipedia.
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื•, ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ, ืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืžื” ื–ื”: ื–ื• ื”ื•ื•ื™ืงื™ืคื“ื™ื”.
05:17
Now what's special about the Wikipedia is not its distribution.
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ืžื” ืžื” ืฉืžื™ื•ื—ื“ ื‘ื•ื•ื™ืงื™ืคื“ื™ื” ื–ื• ืœื ื”ื”ืคืฆื”.
05:20
What's special about the Wikipedia is the way it's produced.
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ืžื” ืฉืžื™ื•ื—ื“ ื‘ื•ื•ื™ืงื™ืคื“ื™ื” ื”ื™ื ื”ื“ืจืš ืฉื‘ื” ื”ื™ื ืžื•ืคืงืช.
05:23
The Wikipedia, of course, is an encyclopedia
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ื•ื•ื™ืงื™ืคื“ื™ื”, ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ, ื”ื™ื ืื ืฆื™ืงืœื•ืคื“ื™ื”
05:25
created by its users.
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ืฉื ื•ืฆืจื” ืขืœ ื“ื™ ืžืฉืชืžืฉื™ื.
05:28
And this, in fact, defines what you might call
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ื•ื–ื”, ืœืžืขืฉื”, ืžื’ื“ื™ืจ ืžื” ืฉื”ื™ื™ืชื ืงื•ืจืื™ื ืœื•
05:30
the second decade of the Internet economy,
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ื”ืขืฉื•ืจ ื”ืฉื ื™ ืฉืœ ื›ืœื›ืœืช ื”ืื™ื ื˜ืจื ื˜,
05:32
the decade in which the Internet as a noun
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ื”ืขืฉื•ืจ ื‘ื• ื”ืื™ื ื˜ืจื ื˜ ื›ืฉื ืขืฆื
05:35
became the Internet as a verb.
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ื”ืคืš ืœืื™ื ื˜ืจื ื˜ ื›ืคื•ืขืœ.
05:37
It became a set of conversations,
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ื”ื•ื ื”ืคืš ืœืกื˜ ืฉืœ ืฉื™ื—ื•ืช,
05:39
the era in which user-generated content and social networks
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ื”ืขื™ื“ืŸ ื‘ื• ืชื•ื›ืŸ ืžืฉืชืžืฉื™ื ื•ืจืฉืชื•ืช ื—ื‘ืจืชื™ื•ืช
05:43
became the dominant phenomenon.
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ื”ืคื›ื• ืœืชื•ืคืขื” ื”ืฉืœื˜ืช.
05:46
Now what that really meant
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ืžื” ืฉื–ื” ื‘ืืžืช ืื•ืžืจ
05:48
in terms of the Porter-Henderson framework
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ื‘ืžื•ื ื—ื™ื ืฉืœ ืชืฉืชื™ืช ืคื•ืจื˜ืจ ื”ื ื“ืจืกื•ืŸ
05:51
was the collapse of certain kinds of economies of scale.
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ื–ื” ื”ื”ืชืžื•ื˜ื˜ื•ืช ืฉืœ ืกื•ื’ื™ื ืžืกื•ื™ื™ืžื™ื ืฉืœ ื›ืœื›ืœื” ืฉืœ ื’ื•ื“ืœ.
05:55
It turned out that tens of thousands
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ืžืกืชื‘ืจ ืฉืขืฉืจื•ืช ืืœืคื™ื
05:57
of autonomous individuals writing an encyclopedia
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ืฉืœ ืคืจื˜ื™ื ืขืฆืžืื™ื™ื ืฉื›ื•ืชื‘ื™ื ืื ืฆื™ืงืœื•ืคื“ื™ื”
06:00
could do just as good a job,
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ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืขื‘ื•ื“ื” ื˜ื•ื‘ื” ื›ืžื•,
06:02
and certainly a much cheaper job,
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ื•ื‘ื˜ื•ื— ื™ื•ืชืจ ื‘ื–ื•ืœ,
06:03
than professionals in a hierarchical organization.
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ืžืžืงืฆื•ืขื ื™ื ื‘ืืจื’ื•ืŸ ื”ื™ืจืจื›ื™.
06:06
So basically what was happening was that one layer
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ืื– ื‘ืขื™ืงืจื•ืŸ ืžื” ืฉืงืจื” ื”ื™ื” ืฉืฉื›ื‘ื” ืื—ืช
06:09
of this value chain was becoming fragmented,
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ืฉืœ ืฉืจืฉืจืช ื”ืขืจืš ื”ื–ื• ื ื”ืคืš ืœืžื‘ื•ื–ืจ,
06:12
as individuals could take over
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ื›ืฉืื ืฉื™ื ื™ื›ืœื• ืœื”ืฉืชืœื˜
06:13
where organizations were no longer needed.
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ื‘ืžืงื•ืžื•ืช ื‘ื”ื ืืจื’ื•ื ื™ื ื›ื‘ืจ ืœื ื”ื™ื• ื ื—ื•ืฆื™ื.
06:17
But there's another question that obviously this graph poses,
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ืื‘ืœ ื™ืฉ ืฉืืœื” ื ื•ืกืคืช ืฉื‘ืจื•ืจ ืฉื”ื’ืจืฃ ืžืฆื™ื’,
06:19
which is, okay, we've gone through two decades --
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ืฉื”ื™ื, ืื•ืงื™ื™, ืขื‘ืจื ื• ืฉื ื™ ืขืฉื•ืจื™ื --
06:22
does anything distinguish the third?
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ื”ืื ืžืฉื”ื• ืžื™ื™ื—ื“ ืืช ื”ืฉืœื™ืฉื™?
06:24
And what I'm going to argue is that indeed
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ื•ืžื” ืฉืื ื™ ืขื•ืžื“ ืœื˜ืขื•ืŸ ื–ื” ืฉื‘ืืžืช
06:26
something does distinguish the third,
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ืžืฉื”ื• ื‘ืืžืช ืžื™ื™ื—ื“ ืืช ื”ืฉืœื™ืฉื™.
06:28
and it maps exactly on to the kind of
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ื•ื”ื•ื ืžืžืคื” ื‘ื“ื™ื•ืง ืขืœ
06:30
Porter-Henderson logic that we've been talking about.
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ื”ื”ื’ื™ื•ืŸ ืฉืœ ืคื•ืจื˜ืจ ื”ื ื“ืจืกื•ืŸ ืฉื“ื™ื‘ืจื ื• ืขืœื™ื•.
06:33
And that is, about data.
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ื•ื–ื”, ืขืœ ืžื™ื“ืข.
06:35
If we go back to around 2000,
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ืื ื ื—ื–ื•ืจ ืœืกื‘ื™ื‘ืช ืฉื ืช 2000,
06:37
a lot of people were talking about the information revolution,
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ื”ืจื‘ื” ืื ืฉื™ื ื“ื™ื‘ืจื• ืขืœ ืžื”ืคื›ืช ื”ืžื™ื“ืข,
06:39
and it was indeed true that the world's stock of data
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ื•ื–ื” ื”ื™ื” ื‘ืืžืช ื ื›ื•ืŸ ืฉืžืื’ืจ ื”ืžื™ื“ืข ืฉืœ ื”ืขื•ืœื
06:42
was growing, indeed growing quite fast.
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ื’ื“ืœ, ื•ื’ื“ืœ ื‘ืืžืช ืžื”ืจ.
06:44
but it was still at that point overwhelmingly analog.
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ืื‘ืœ ื–ื” ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ ื”ื™ื” ืžืื•ื“ ืื ืœื•ื’ื™ ื‘ื ืงื•ื“ื” ื”ื–ื•.
06:47
We go forward to 2007,
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืžืฉื™ื›ื™ื ืœ 2007,
06:49
not only had the world's stock of data exploded,
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ืœื ืจืง ืฉื›ืžื•ืช ื”ืžื™ื“ืข ื‘ืขื•ืœื ื ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ืขืฆื•ืžื”,
06:52
but there'd been this massive substitution
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ืืœื ืฉื”ื™ื” ื—ื™ืœื•ืฃ ืžืืกื™ื‘ื™
06:54
of digital for analog.
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ืฉืœ ื“ื™ื’ื™ื˜ืœื™ ื‘ืžืงื•ื ืื ืœื•ื’ื™.
06:56
And more important even than that,
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ื•ื™ื•ืชืจ ื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืžื–ื” ืืคื™ืœื•,
06:58
if you look more carefully at this graph,
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ืื ืืชื ืžื‘ื™ื˜ื™ื ื‘ืขื™ื•ืŸ ื‘ื’ืจืฃ ื”ื–ื”,
07:00
what you will observe is that about a half
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ืžื” ืฉืชื‘ื—ื™ื ื• ื‘ื• ื–ื” ืฉื‘ืขืจืš ื—ืฆื™
07:02
of that digital data
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ืžื”ืžื™ื“ืข ื”ื“ื™ื’ื™ื˜ืœื™ ื”ื–ื”
07:04
is information that has an I.P. address.
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ื”ื•ื ืžื™ื“ืข ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื• ื›ืชื•ื‘ืช IP
07:06
It's on a server or it's on a P.C.
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ื”ื•ื ืขืœ ืฉืจืช ืื• ืขืœ ืžื—ืฉื‘.
07:09
But having an I.P. address means that it
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ืื‘ืœ ื›ืฉื™ืฉ ื›ืชื•ื‘ืช IP ืื•ืžืจ
07:11
can be connected to any other data
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ืฉื”ื•ื ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžื—ื•ื‘ืจ ืœื›ืœ ืžื™ื“ืข ืื—ืจ
07:13
that has an I.P. address.
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ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื• ื›ืชื•ื‘ืช IP.
07:15
It means it becomes possible
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ื–ื” ืื•ืžืจ ืฉื–ื” ื”ื•ืคืš ืœืืคืฉืจื™
07:16
to put together half of the world's knowledge
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ืœื—ื‘ืจ ื—ืฆื™ ืžื”ื™ื“ืข ื‘ืขื•ืœื
07:19
in order to see patterns,
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœืจืื•ืช ืชื‘ื ื™ื•ืช,
07:21
an entirely new thing.
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ืžืฉื”ื• ื—ื“ืฉ ืœื—ืœื•ื˜ื™ืŸ.
07:23
If we run the numbers forward to today,
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ืื ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืจื™ืฆื™ื ืืช ื”ืžืกืคืจื™ื ืงื“ื™ืžื” ืœื”ื™ื•ื,
07:25
it probably looks something like this.
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ื–ื” ื›ื ืจืื” ื ืจืื” ืžืฉื”ื• ื›ืžื• ื–ื”.
07:27
We're not really sure.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืœื ืœื’ืžืจื™ ื‘ื˜ื•ื—ื™ื.
07:28
If we run the numbers forward to 2020,
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ืื ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืจื™ืฆื™ื ืืช ื”ืžืกืคืจื™ื ืงื“ื™ืžื” ืœ 2020,
07:30
we of course have an exact number, courtesy of IDC.
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ื›ืžื•ื‘ืŸ ื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ืžืกืคืจ ืžื“ื•ื™ื™ืง, ืชื•ื“ื•ืช ืœ IDC.
07:33
It's curious that the future is so much more predictable than the present.
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ื–ื” ืžืขื ื™ื™ืŸ ืฉื”ืขืชื™ื“ ื”ื•ื ื›ืœ ื›ืš ื™ื•ืชืจ ืฆืคื•ื™ ืžื”ื”ื•ื•ื”.
07:37
And what it implies is a hundredfold multiplication
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ื•ืžื” ืฉื–ื” ืžืจืžื– ื–ื” ื›ืคืœ ืคื™ ืžืื”
07:42
in the stock of information that is connected
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ื‘ื›ืžื•ืช ื”ืžื™ื“ืข ืฉืžื—ื•ื‘ืจืช
07:45
via an I.P. address.
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ื“ืจืš ื›ืชื•ื‘ื•ืช IP.
07:47
Now, if the number of connections that we can make
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื•, ืื ื”ืžืกืคืจ ืฉืœ ื”ื—ื™ื‘ื•ืจื™ื ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื™ืฆื•ืจ
07:50
is proportional to the number of pairs of data points,
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ื”ื•ื ืคืจื•ืคื•ืจืฆื™ื•ื ืœื™ ืœืžืกืคืจ ื–ื•ื’ื•ืช ื ืงื•ื“ื•ืช ื”ืžื™ื“ืข,
07:53
a hundredfold multiplication in the quantity of data
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ืžื›ืคืœื” ืฉืœ ืžืื” ื‘ื›ืžื•ืช ืฉืœ ื”ืžื™ื“ืข
07:56
is a ten-thousandfold multiplication
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ื”ื™ื ืžื›ืคืœื” ืฉืœ ืขืฉืจืช ืืœืคื™ื
07:58
in the number of patterns
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ื‘ืžืกืคืจ ื”ืชื‘ื ื™ื•ืช
08:00
that we can see in that data,
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ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืจืื•ืช ื‘ืžื™ื“ืข ื”ื–ื”,
08:02
this just in the last 10 or 11 years.
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ื–ื” ืจืง ื‘ 10 ืื• 11 ื”ืฉื ื™ื ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื•ืช.
08:04
This, I would submit, is a sea change,
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ื–ื”, ืื ื™ ื”ื™ื™ืชื™ ื˜ื•ืขืŸ, ืฉื™ื ื•ื™ ืขืฆื•ื,
08:07
a profound change in the economics
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ืฉื™ื ื•ื™ ืžื”ื•ืชื™ ื‘ื›ืœื›ืœื”
08:09
of the world that we live in.
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ืฉืœ ื”ืขื•ืœื ื‘ื• ืื ื—ื ื• ื—ื™ื™ื.
08:11
The first human genome,
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ื”ื’ื ื•ื ื”ืื ื•ืฉื™ ื”ืจืืฉื•ืŸ,
08:12
that of James Watson,
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ืฉืœ ื’'ื™ื™ืžืก ื•ื•ื˜ืกื•ืŸ,
08:14
was mapped as the culmination of the Human Genome Project in the year 2000,
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ืžื•ืคื” ื›ืฉื™ื ืฉืœ ืคืจื•ื™ื™ืงื˜ ื”ื’ื ื•ื ื”ืื ื•ืฉื™ ื‘ืฉื ืช 2000,
08:18
and it took about 200 million dollars
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ื•ื–ื” ืขืœื” ื‘ืขืจืš 200 ืžืœื™ื•ืŸ ื“ื•ืœืจ
08:20
and about 10 years of work to map
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ื•ืœืงื— ื‘ืขืจืš 10 ืฉื ื™ื ืœืžืคื•ืช
08:22
just one person's genomic makeup.
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ื’ื ื•ื ืฉืœ ืจืง ืื“ื ืื—ื“.
08:24
Since then, the costs of mapping the genome have come down.
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ืžืื–, ื”ืขืœื•ืช ืฉืœ ืžื™ืคื•ื™ ื”ื’ื ื•ื ื™ืจื“ื”.
08:27
In fact, they've come down in recent years
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ืœืžืขืฉื”, ื”ื™ื ื™ืจื“ื” ื‘ืฉื ื™ื ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื•ืช
08:29
very dramatically indeed,
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ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืžืื•ื“ ื“ืจืžื˜ื™,
08:31
to the point where the cost is now below 1,000 dollars,
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ืœื ืงื•ื“ื” ื‘ื” ื”ืขืœื•ืช ื”ื™ื ืคื—ื•ืช ืž 1,000 ื“ื•ืœืจ ืขื›ืฉื™ื•,
08:33
and it's confidently predicted that by the year 2015
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ื•ื–ื” ืฆืคื•ื™ ื‘ื‘ื˜ื—ื•ืŸ ืฉื‘ 2015
08:36
it will be below 100 dollars --
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ื–ื” ื™ื”ื™ื” ืคื—ื•ืช ืž 100 ื“ื•ืœืจ --
08:38
a five or six order of magnitude drop
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ื ืคื™ืœื” ืฉืœ ื—ืžืฉ ืื• ืฉืฉ ืจืžื•ืช ื’ื•ื“ืœ
08:41
in the cost of genomic mapping
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ื‘ืขืœื•ืช ืฉืœ ืžื™ืคื•ื™ ื”ื’ื ื•ื
08:43
in just a 15-year period,
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ืชื•ืš ืชืงื•ืคื” ืฉืœ 15 ืฉื ื™ื ื‘ืœื‘ื“,
08:45
an extraordinary phenomenon.
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ืชื•ืคืขื” ืžื“ื”ื™ืžื”.
08:48
Now, in the days when mapping a genome
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื•, ื‘ื™ืžื™ื ื‘ื”ื ืžื™ืคื•ื™ ื”ื’ื ื•ื
08:52
cost millions, or even tens of thousands,
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ืขืœื” ืžืœื™ื•ื ื™ื ืื• ืืคื™ืœื• ืขืฉืจื•ืช ืืœืคื™ื,
08:55
it was basically a research enterprise.
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ื–ื” ื”ื™ื” ื‘ืขื™ืงืจื•ืŸ ืคืจื•ื™ื™ืงื˜ ืžื—ืงืจ.
08:57
Scientists would gather some representative people,
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ืžื“ืขื ื™ื ื”ื™ื• ืื•ืกืคื™ื ื›ืžื” ืื ืฉื™ื ืžื™ื™ืฆื’ื™ื,
09:00
and they would see patterns, and they would try
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ื•ื”ื ื”ื™ื• ืจื•ืื™ื ืชื‘ื ื™ื•ืช, ื•ื”ื ื”ื™ื•ื ืžื ืกื™ื
09:01
and make generalizations about human nature and disease
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ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื”ื›ืœืœื•ืช ืขืœ ื˜ื‘ืข ื”ืื“ื ื•ื”ืžื—ืœื•ืช
09:04
from the abstract patterns they find
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ืžื”ืชื‘ื ื™ื•ืช ื”ืžื•ืคืฉื˜ื•ืช ืฉื”ื ืžืฆืื•
09:05
from these particular selected individuals.
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ืžื”ืื ืฉื™ื ื”ื ื‘ื—ืจื™ื ื”ืกืคืฆื™ืคื™ื™ื ื”ืืœื”.
09:09
But when the genome can be mapped for 100 bucks,
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ืื‘ืœ ื›ืฉื”ื’ื ื•ื ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžืžื•ืคื” ืขื‘ื•ืจ 100 ื“ื•ืœืจ,
09:12
99 dollars while you wait,
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99 ื“ื•ืœืจ ื‘ื–ืžืŸ ืฉืืชื ืžื—ื›ื™ื,
09:14
then what happens is, it becomes retail.
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ืื– ืžื” ืฉืงื•ืจื”, ื–ื” ื”ื•ืคืš ืœืžื•ืฆืจ.
09:16
It becomes above all clinical.
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ื–ื” ื”ื•ืคืš ืžืขืœ ื”ื›ืœ ืœืงืœื™ื ื™.
09:18
You go the doctor with a cold,
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ืืชื ื”ื•ืœื›ื™ื ืœืจื•ืคื ืขื ืฆื™ื ื•ืŸ,
09:19
and if he or she hasn't done it already,
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ื•ืื ื”ื•ื ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ ืœื ืขืฉื” ืืช ื–ื”,
09:21
the first thing they do is map your genome,
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ื”ื“ื‘ืจ ื”ืจืืฉื•ืŸ ืฉื”ื ืขื•ืฉื™ื ื–ื” ืœืžืคื•ืช ืืช ื”ื’ื ื•ื ืฉืœื›ื,
09:23
at which point what they're now doing
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ื‘ื ืงื•ื“ื” ื–ื• ืžื” ืฉื”ื ืขื•ืฉื™ื ืขื›ืฉื™ื•
09:25
is not starting from some abstract knowledge of genomic medicine
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ื–ื” ืœื ืœื”ืชื—ื™ืœ ืžื™ื“ืข ืื‘ืกื˜ืจืงื˜ื™ ืฉืœ ืจืคื•ืืช ื’ื ื™ื
09:30
and trying to work out how it applies to you,
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ื•ืœื ืกื•ืช ืœื”ื‘ื™ืŸ ืื™ืš ื–ื” ืžืชื™ื™ื—ืก ืืœื™ื›ื,
09:32
but they're starting from your particular genome.
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ืืœื ื”ื ืžืชื—ื™ืœื™ื ืžื”ื’ื ื•ื ื”ืกืคืฆื™ืคื™ ืฉืœื›ื.
09:34
Now think of the power of that.
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ื—ืฉื‘ื• ืขืœ ื”ื›ื•ื— ืฉืœ ื–ื”.
09:36
Think of where that takes us
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ื—ืฉื‘ื• ืœืืŸ ื–ื” ืœื•ืงื— ืื•ืชื ื•
09:37
when we can combine genomic data
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ื›ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืฉืœื‘ ืžื™ื“ืข ื’ื ื˜ื™
09:40
with clinical data
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ืขื ืžื™ื“ืข ืงืœื™ื ื™
09:42
with data about drug interactions
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ืขื ืžื™ื“ืข ืขืœ ืชื’ื•ื‘ื•ืช ืœืชืจื•ืคื•ืช
09:44
with the kind of ambient data that devices
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ืขื ืกื•ื’ ืฉืœ ืžื™ื“ืข ื›ืœืœื™ ืฉืžื›ืฉื™ืจื™ื
09:46
like our phone and medical sensors
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ื›ืžื• ื”ื˜ืœืคื•ืŸ ืฉืœื ื• ื•ื—ื™ื™ืฉื ื™ื ืจืคื•ืื™ื™ื
09:48
will increasingly be collecting.
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ื™ืืกืคื• ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืžืชืจื—ื‘.
09:50
Think what happens when we collect all of that data
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ื—ืฉื‘ื• ืžื” ืงื•ืจื” ื›ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืื•ืกืคื™ื ืืช ื›ืœ ื”ืžื™ื“ืข ื”ื–ื”
09:52
and we can put it together
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ื•ืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื—ื‘ืจ ืื•ืชื•
09:54
in order to find patterns we wouldn't see before.
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœืžืฆื•ื ืชื‘ื ื™ื•ืช ืฉืœื ื”ื™ื™ื ื• ืจื•ืื™ื ืœืคื ื™ ื›ืŸ.
09:56
This, I would suggest, perhaps it will take a while,
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ื–ื”, ื”ื™ื™ืชื™ ืื•ืžืจ, ืื•ืœื™ ื™ืงื— ืžืขื˜ ื–ืžืŸ,
09:59
but this will drive a revolution in medicine.
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ืื‘ืœ ื–ื” ื™ื ื™ืข ืžื”ืคื›ื” ื‘ืจืคื•ืื”.
10:02
Fabulous, lots of people talk about this.
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ื ืคืœื, ื”ืจื‘ื” ืื ืฉื™ื ืžื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื–ื”.
10:04
But there's one thing that doesn't get much attention.
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ืื‘ืœ ื™ืฉ ื“ื‘ืจ ืื—ื“ ืฉืœื ืžืงื‘ืœ ื”ืจื‘ื” ืชืฉื•ืžืช ืœื‘.
10:06
How is that model of colossal sharing
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ืื™ืš ื”ืžื•ื“ืœ ื”ื–ื” ืฉืœ ืฉื™ืชื•ืฃ ืงื•ืœื•ืกืืœื™
10:10
across all of those kinds of databases
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ื‘ื™ืŸ ื›ืœ ืกื•ื’ื™ ืžืื’ืจื™ ื”ืžื™ื“ืข ื”ื–ื”
10:12
compatible with the business models
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ืžืชืื™ื ืœืžื•ื“ืœ ื”ืขืกืงื™
10:15
of institutions and organizations and corporations
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ืฉืœ ืžื•ืกื“ื•ืช ื•ืืจื’ื•ื ื™ื ื•ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช
10:17
that are involved in this business today?
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ืฉืžืขื•ืจื‘ื•ืช ื‘ืขืกืง ื”ื–ื” ื”ื™ื•ื?
10:20
If your business is based on proprietary data,
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ืื ืืชื ืขืกืง ืฉืžื‘ื•ืกืก ืขืœ ืžื™ื“ืข ืงื ื™ื™ื ื™,
10:22
if your competitive advantage is defined by your data,
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ืื ื”ื™ืชืจื•ืŸ ื”ืชื—ืจื•ืชื™ ืฉืœื›ื ืžื•ื’ื“ืจ ืขืœื™ ื™ื“ื™ ื”ืžื™ื“ืข ืฉืœื›ื,
10:25
how on Earth is that company or is that society
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ืื™ืš ื”ื—ื‘ืจื” ื”ื–ื• ืื• ื”ืืจื’ื•ืŸ ื”ื–ื”
10:29
in fact going to achieve the value
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ื™ืฉื™ื’ ืืช ื”ืขืจืš
10:31
that's implicit in the technology? They can't.
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ืฉื ื•ื‘ืข ืžื”ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื”? ื”ื ืœื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื.
10:34
So essentially what's happening here,
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ืื– ื‘ืขื™ืงืจื•ืŸ ืžื” ืฉืงื•ืจื” ืคื”,
10:36
and genomics is merely one example of this,
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ื•ื’ื ื•ืžื™ืงื” ื”ื™ื ืจืง ื“ื•ื’ืžื” ืื—ืช ืœื–ื”,
10:39
is that technology is driving
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ื–ื” ืฉื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ืžื ื™ืขื”
10:41
the natural scaling of the activity
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ืืช ื”ื’ื™ื“ื•ืœ ื”ื˜ื‘ืขื™ ืฉืœ ื”ืคืขื™ืœื•ืช
10:44
beyond the institutional boundaries within which
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ืžืขื‘ืจ ืœื’ื‘ื•ืœื•ืช ื”ืžื•ืกื“ื™ื™ื ื‘ืชื•ื›ื
10:47
we have been used to thinking about it,
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ื”ื™ื™ื ื• ืจื’ื™ืœื™ื ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ื‘ืขื‘ืจ ืขืœ ื–ื”,
10:49
and in particular beyond the institutional boundaries
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ื•ื‘ืขื™ืงืจ ืžืขื‘ืจ ืœื’ื‘ื•ืœื•ืช ื”ืžื•ืกื“ื™ื™ื
10:51
in terms of which business strategy
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ื‘ืžื•ื ื—ื™ื ื‘ื”ื ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื•ืช ืขืกืงื™ื•ืช
10:53
as a discipline is formulated.
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ื›ื“ื™ืกื™ืคืœื™ื ื•ืช ื ื•ืฆืจื•ืช.
10:57
The basic story here is that what used to be
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ื”ืกื™ืคื•ืจ ื”ื‘ืกื™ืกื™ ืคื” ื”ื•ื ืฉืžื” ืฉื”ื™ื”
11:00
vertically integrated, oligopolistic competition
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ืชื—ืจื•ืช ืื•ืœื™ื’ื•ืคื•ืœื™ืกื˜ื™ืช, ืžืฉื•ืœื‘ืช ืื ื›ื™ืช
11:04
among essentially similar kinds of competitors
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ื‘ื™ืŸ ืกื•ื’ื™ื ื“ื•ืžื™ื ืฉืœ ืžืชื—ืจื™ื
11:07
is evolving, by one means or another,
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ืžืชืคืชื—, ื‘ืฆื•ืจื” ื›ืœืฉื”ื™ ืื• ืื—ืจืช,
11:09
from a vertical structure to a horizontal one.
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ืžืžื‘ื ื” ืื ื›ื™ ืœืื•ืคืงื™.
11:12
Why is that happening?
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ืœืžื” ื–ื” ืงื•ืจื”?
11:14
It's happening because transaction costs are plummeting
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ื–ื” ืงื•ืจื” ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืฉืขืœื•ื™ื•ืช ืคืขื•ืœื•ืช ืฆื•ื ื—ื•ืช
11:17
and because scale is polarizing.
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ื•ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืฉืงื ื” ื”ืžื™ื“ื” ืžืงื˜ื‘.
11:18
The plummeting of transaction costs
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ืขืœื•ื™ื•ืช ื”ืคืขื•ืœื•ืช ื”ืฆื•ื ื—ื•ืช
11:20
weakens the glue that holds value chains together,
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ืžื—ืœื™ืฉ ืืช ื”ื“ื‘ืง ืฉืžื—ื–ื™ืง ืืช ืฉืจืฉืจืช ื”ืขืจืš,
11:23
and allows them to separate.
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ื•ืžืืคืฉืจ ืœื”ืŸ ืœื”ืคืจื“.
11:25
The polarization of scale economies
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ื”ืงื™ื˜ื•ื‘ ืฉืœ ื›ืœื›ืœืช ืงื ื” ืžื™ื“ื”
11:26
towards the very small -- small is beautiful --
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ื›ืœืคื™ ื”ืžืžืฉ ืงื˜ืŸ -- ืงื˜ืŸ ื–ื” ื™ืคื” --
11:30
allows for scalable communities
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ืžืืคืฉืจ ืœืงื”ื™ืœื•ืช ืขื ื™ื›ื•ืœืช ื’ื“ื™ืœื”
11:32
to substitute for conventional corporate production.
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ืœื”ื—ืœื™ืฃ ื™ืฆื•ืจ ืงื”ื™ืœืชื™ ืกื˜ื ื“ืจื˜ื™.
11:35
The scaling in the opposite direction,
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ื”ื’ื™ื“ื•ืœ ื‘ื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ื”ื”ืคื•ืš,
11:37
towards things like big data,
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ื›ืœืคื™ ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื›ืžื• ื ืชื•ื ื™ื ื’ื“ื•ืœื™ื,
11:39
drive the structure of business
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ืžื ื™ืข ืืช ื”ืžื‘ื ื” ืฉืœ ื”ืขืกืงื™ื
11:41
towards the creation of new kinds of institutions
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ื›ืœืคื™ ื”ื™ืฆื™ืจื” ืฉืœ ืžื•ืกื“ื•ืช ืžืกื•ื’ ื—ื“ืฉ
11:44
that can achieve that scale.
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ืฉื™ื›ื•ืœื•ืช ืœื”ืฉื™ื’ ืืช ื”ื’ื™ื“ื•ืœ ื”ื–ื”.
11:46
But either way, the typically vertical structure
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ืื‘ืœ ื‘ื›ืœ ืžืงืจื”, ื”ืžื‘ื ื” ื”ืื ื›ื™ ื”ื˜ื™ืคื•ืกื™
11:48
gets driven to becoming more horizontal.
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ืžื•ื ืข ืœื”ืคื•ืš ืœื™ื•ืชืจ ืื•ืคืงื™.
11:51
The logic isn't just about big data.
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ื”ื”ื’ื™ื•ืŸ ื”ื•ื ืœื ืจืง ื‘ื ื•ื’ืข ืœื ืชื•ื ื™ื ื’ื“ื•ืœื™ื,
11:54
If we were to look, for example, at the telecommunications industry,
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ืื ื”ื™ื™ื ื• ืžืกืชื›ืœื™ื, ืœื“ื•ื’ืžื”, ืขืœ ืชืขืฉื™ื™ืช ื”ืชืงืฉื•ืจืช,
11:57
you can tell the same story about fiber optics.
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ืืชื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ื’ื™ื“ ืื•ืชื• ืกื™ืคื•ืจ ืขืœ ืกื™ื‘ื™ื ืื•ืคื˜ื™ื™ื.
11:59
If we look at the pharmaceutical industry,
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ืื ืืชื ืžืกืชื’ืœื™ื ืขืœ ืชืขืฉื™ื™ืช ื”ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช,
12:02
or, for that matter, university research,
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ืื•, ืœืฆื•ืจืš ื”ืขื ื™ื™ืŸ, ืขืœ ื”ืžื—ืงืจ ื”ืื•ื ื™ื‘ืจืกื™ื˜ืื™,
12:03
you can say exactly the same story
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ืืชื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ื’ื™ื“ ื‘ื“ื™ื•ืง ืื•ืชื• ื”ื“ื‘ืจ
12:05
about so-called "big science."
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ืขืœ ืžื” ืฉื ืงืจื” "ืžื“ืข ื’ื“ื•ืœ."
12:07
And in the opposite direction,
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ื•ื‘ื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ื”ื”ืคื•ืš,
12:08
if we look, say, at the energy sector,
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ืื ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืกืชื›ืœื™ื, ื ื’ื™ื“, ืขืœ ืžื’ื–ืจ ื”ืื ืจื’ื™ื”,
12:11
where all the talk is about how households
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ืฉื ื›ืœ ื”ื“ื™ื‘ื•ืจ ื”ื•ื ืขืœ ืื™ืš ืžืฉืงื™ ื‘ื™ืช
12:13
will be efficient producers of green energy
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ื™ื”ื™ื• ื™ืฆืจื ื™ื ื™ืขื™ืœื™ื ืฉืœ ืื ืจื’ื™ื” ื™ืจื•ืงื”
12:17
and efficient conservers of energy,
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ื•ืฉื•ืžืจื™ื ื™ืขื™ืœื™ื ืขืœ ื”ืื ืจื’ื™ื”,
12:20
that is, in fact, the reverse phenomenon.
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ื–ื” ืื•ืžืจ, ืœืžืขืฉื”, ื”ืชื•ืคืขื” ื”ื”ืคื•ื›ื”.
12:22
That is the fragmentation of scale
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ื–ื” ื”ื‘ื™ื–ื•ืจ ืฉืœ ื’ื™ื“ื•ืœ
12:23
because the very small can substitute
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ืžืคื ื™ ืฉื”ืžืื•ื“ ืงื˜ืŸ ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืชื—ืœื™ืฃ
12:26
for the traditional corporate scale.
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ืœื’ื•ื“ืœ ื”ืงื•ืื•ืคืจื˜ื™ื‘ื™ ื”ืžืกื•ืจืชื™.
12:28
Either way, what we are driven to
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ื‘ื›ืœ ืžืงืจื”, ืžื” ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืžืชืงื“ืžื™ื ืืœื™ื•
12:30
is this horizontalization of the structure of industries,
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ื”ื•ื ื”ืคื™ื›ืช ื”ืžื‘ื ื” ืฉืœ ื”ืชืขืฉื™ื•ืช ืœืื•ืคืงื™,
12:34
and that implies fundamental changes
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ื•ืžื–ื” ืžืฉืชืžืข ืฉื™ื ื•ื™ ืžื”ื•ืชื™
12:36
in how we think about strategy.
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ื‘ืื™ืš ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ืขืœ ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื”.
12:38
It means, for example, that we need to think
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ื–ื” ืื•ืžืจ, ืœื“ื•ื’ืžื”, ืฉืื—ื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘
12:40
about strategy as the curation
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ืขืœ ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื” ื›ืืฆื™ืจื”
12:43
of these kinds of horizontal structure,
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ืฉืœ ืกื•ื’ื™ื ืืœื” ืฉืœ ืžื‘ื ื” ืื•ืคืงื™,
12:45
where things like business definition
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ืฉื ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื›ืžื• ื”ื’ื“ืจื•ืช ืขืกืงื™ื•ืช
12:47
and even industry definition
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ื•ืืคื™ืœื• ื”ื’ื“ืจื•ืช ืชืขืฉื™ื™ืชื™ื•ืช
12:49
are actually the outcomes of strategy,
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ื”ืŸ ืœืžืขืฉื” ืชื•ืฆืื” ืฉืœ ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื”,
12:51
not something that the strategy presupposes.
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ืœื ืžืฉื”ื• ืฉื”ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื” ืžื ื™ื—ื” ืžืจืืฉ.
12:55
It means, for example, we need to work out
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ื–ื” ืื•ืžืจ, ืœื“ื•ื’ืžื”, ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœื”ื‘ื™ืŸ
12:58
how to accommodate collaboration
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ืื™ืš ืœืืคืฉืจ ืฉื™ืชื•ืฃ ืคืขื•ืœื”
13:00
and competition simultaneously.
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ื•ืชื—ืจื•ืช ื‘ืžืงื‘ื™ืœ.
13:02
Think about the genome.
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ื—ืฉื‘ื• ืขืœ ื”ื’ื ื•ื.
13:03
We need to accommodate the very large
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืฆืจื›ื™ื ืœืืคืฉืจ ืืช ื”ืžืื•ื“ ื’ื“ื•ืœ
13:05
and the very small simultaneously.
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ื•ืืช ื”ืžืื•ื“ ืงื˜ืŸ ื‘ืื•ืชื• ื–ืžืŸ.
13:07
And we need industry structures
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ื•ืื ื—ื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืžื‘ื ื” ืชืขืฉื™ื™ืชื™
13:09
that will accommodate very, very different motivations,
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ืฉื™ืืคืฉืจ ืžื•ื˜ื™ื‘ืฆื™ื•ืช ืžืื•ื“ ืžืื•ื“ ืฉื•ื ื•ืช,
13:12
from the amateur motivations of people in communities
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ืžืžื•ื˜ื™ื‘ืฆื™ื•ืช ื—ื•ื‘ื‘ื ื™ื•ืช ืฉืœ ืื ืฉื™ื ื‘ืงื”ื™ืœื•ืช
13:14
to maybe the social motivations
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ืœืื•ืœื™ ื”ืžื•ื˜ื™ื‘ืฆื™ื” ื”ื—ื‘ืจืชื™ืช
13:16
of infrastructure built by governments,
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ืฉืœ ืชืฉืชื™ืช ืฉื ื‘ื ื™ืช ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ื”ืžืžืฉืœ,
13:19
or, for that matter, cooperative institutions
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ืื•, ืœืฆื•ืจืš ื”ืขื ื™ื™ืŸ, ืžื•ืกื“ื•ืช ืฉื™ืชื•ืคื™ื™ื
13:21
built by companies that are otherwise competing,
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ืฉื ื‘ื ื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ืฉืื—ืจืช ื™ืชื—ืจื•,
13:24
because that is the only way that they can get to scale.
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ืžืคื ื™ ืฉื–ื• ื”ื“ืจืš ื”ื™ื—ื™ื“ื” ืฉื”ื ื™ื’ื“ืœื•.
13:27
These kinds of transformations
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ื”ืกื•ื’ื™ื ื”ืฉื•ื ื™ื ื”ืืœื” ืฉืœ ืžื”ืคื›ื™ื
13:29
render the traditional premises of business strategy obsolete.
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ื”ื•ืคื›ื™ื ืืช ื”ื”ื ื—ื” ื”ื‘ืกื™ืกื™ืช ืฉืœ ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื” ืขืกืงื™ืช ืœืœื ืจืœื•ื•ื ื˜ื™ืช.
13:33
They drive us into a completely new world.
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ื”ื ืžื ื™ืขื™ื ืื•ืชื ื• ืœืขื•ืœื ื—ื“ืฉ ืœื’ืžืจื™.
13:35
They require us, whether we are
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ื”ื ื“ื•ืจืฉื™ื ืžืื™ืชื ื•, ื‘ื™ืŸ ืื ืื ื—ื ื•
13:37
in the public sector or the private sector,
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ื‘ืกืงื˜ื•ืจ ื”ืฆื™ื‘ื•ืจื™ ืื• ื”ืกืงื˜ื•ืจ ื”ืคืจื˜ื™,
13:39
to think very fundamentally differently
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ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืื—ืจืช ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ื™ืกื•ื“ื™
13:42
about the structure of business,
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ืขืœ ื”ืžื‘ื ื” ืฉืœ ืขืกืงื™ื,
13:43
and, at last, it makes strategy interesting again.
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ื•ืœื‘ืกื•ืฃ, ื–ื” ื”ื•ืคืš ืืช ื”ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื” ืœืžืขื ื™ื™ื ืช ืฉื•ื‘.
13:47
Thank you.
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ืชื•ื“ื” ืœื›ื.
13:50
(Applause)
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(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
ืขืœ ืืชืจ ื–ื”

ืืชืจ ื–ื” ื™ืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืกืจื˜ื•ื ื™ YouTube ื”ืžื•ืขื™ืœื™ื ืœืœื™ืžื•ื“ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช. ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืขื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื•ืจื™ื ืžื”ืฉื•ืจื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื. ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื“ืฃ ื•ื™ื“ืื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื. ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื’ื•ืœืœื•ืช ื‘ืกื ื›ืจื•ืŸ ืขื ื”ืคืขืœืช ื”ื•ื•ื™ื“ืื•. ืื ื™ืฉ ืœืš ื”ืขืจื•ืช ืื• ื‘ืงืฉื•ืช, ืื ื ืฆื•ืจ ืื™ืชื ื• ืงืฉืจ ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื˜ื•ืคืก ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืงืฉืจ ื–ื”.

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