Robin Chase: Getting cars off the road and data into the skies

翻译人员: dayu Vong 校对人员: Zhu Jie

I'm going to talk about two stories today.

今天我想给大家讲两个故事。

One is how we need to use market-based pricing to affect demand

一个是我们如何通过基于市场的定价去影响需求，

and use wireless technologies to dramatically reduce our emissions

并且使用无线技术减少在运输环节的

in the transportation sector.

汽车排放物。

And the other is that there is an incredible opportunity

另一个就是我们面临着史无前例的机遇，

if we choose the right wireless technologies;

如果我们能选择最合适的无线技术，

how we can generate a new engine for economic growth

我们将会给的经济发展增添新动力，

and dramatically reduce C02 in the other sectors.

同时可以显著的减少二氧化碳等气体的排放。

I'm really scared.

我非常惶恐，

We need to reduce C02 emissions in ten to fifteen years by 80 percent

因为我们需要在10到15年里减少80%的二氧化碳排放量，

in order to avert catastrophic effects.

以避免灾难性的后果。

And I am astounded that I'm standing here to tell you that.

令我难受的是，我将在这里亲自告诉你们这些灾难。

What are catastrophic effects? A three degree centigrade climate change rise

那些灾难性后果都是什么呢？全球气候升温3摄氏度，

that will result in 50 percent species extinction.

将导致50%的物种灭绝。

It's not a movie. This is real life.

这不是电影，现实生活中存在这种危机。

And I'm really worried, because when people talk about cars

我很担心，因为人们谈论汽车的时候

-- which I know something about --

——我对此比较了解——

the press and politicians and people in this room are all thinking,

媒体、政客，包括在座的诸位都会想，

"Let's use fuel-efficient cars."

“让我们使用那些高效燃油的小轿车。”

If we started today, 10 years from now, at the end of this window of opportunity,

如果我们现在开始做，从现在起做10年，那么，在这段最佳时机之后，

those fuel-efficient cars will reduce our fossil fuel needs by four percent.

这些高效燃油小轿车就会使人们对化石燃料的需求降低四成。

That is not enough.

这还不够（解决问题）。

But now I'll talk about some more pleasant things.

但是，我想要谈论一些愉快的事情。

Here are some ways that we can make some dramatic changes.

这里有一些方法，使得我们可以作出一些有趣的改变。

So, Zipcar is a company that I founded seven years ago,

七年前我建立了ZipCar公司，

but it's an example of something called car sharing.

其实是汽车共用的一种尝试。

What Zipcar does is we park cars throughout dense urban areas

ZipCar在人口稠密的城市地区拥有很多会员和他们的车辆，会员可以按小时或者天

for members to reserve, by the hour and by the day, instead of using their own car.

来进行汽车预定服务，用以替代使用他们自己的车子。

How does it feel to be a person using a Zipcar?

ZipCar的会员是如何体会这项服务的呢？

It means that I pay only for what I need.

其实就是只为我实际所需、所用的东西付费，

All those hours when a car is sitting idle, I'm not paying for it.

我不必为车辆闲置的那些时间付费，

It means that I can choose a car exactly for that particular trip.

也就是说我可以选择一辆车以满足我某一个特定的出行需求。

So, here's a woman that reserved MiniMia, and she had her day.

有位女士预定了一台MiniMia，她用的非常开心。

I can take a BMW when I'm seeing clients.

我可以开着宝马去见客户，

I can drive my Toyota Element when I'm going to go on that surfing trip.

也可以换一台丰田Element去海边冲浪。

And the other remarkable thing is it's, I think, the highest status of car ownership.

值得一提的是，我认为这才是拥有车子的最高境界。

Not only do I have a fleet of cars available to me in seven cities around the world

只需要一个招手或者是一通电话，

that I can have at my beck and call,

我就可以在全球的七个城市里任意使用我想要的车子，

but heaven forbid I would ever maintain

而且不需要担心车子的维护和维修，

or deal with the repair or have anything to do with it.

或者之类的事情。

It's like the car that you always wanted that your mom said that you couldn't have.

这些车子都是那些你梦寐以求的，但你妈妈反对你拥有的。

I get all the good stuff and none of the bad.

我享受了所有的好处，而无后顾之忧。

So, what is the social result of this?

那么社会对这个事情是如何反馈的呢？

The social result is that today's Zipcar has 100,000 members

事实是，ZipCar已经拥有10万多会员，

driving 3,000 cars parked in 3,000 parking spaces.

他们拥有停放在3000个停车场里的3000辆汽车。

Instead of driving 12,000 miles a year, which is what the average city dweller does,

现如今平均每一个城市居民驾车的行驶里程达每年1万2千公里，

they drive 500 miles a year. Are they happy?

而ZipCar会员的平均行驶里程仅为每年500公里，他们能不高兴吗？

The company has been doubling in size ever since I founded it, or greater.

自从公司创办以来，其规模已经翻了一番，甚至更多。

People adore the company. And it's better,

人们喜欢这个公司，公司就会发展得越来越好。

you know? They like it.

人们很喜欢它。

So, how is it that people went from the 12,000 miles a year to 500 miles?

但是，一个人是如何将他的平均行驶里程由一年1万2千公里降到只有500公里的呢？

It's because they said, "It's eight to 10 dollars an hour and 65 dollars a day.

据他们所讲，这是因为一台车一小时的费用为8到10美元，一天则为65美元。

If I'm going to go buy some ice cream,

如果我想去买冰激凌，

do I really want to spend eight dollars to go buy the ice cream? Or maybe I'll do without.

我会愿意再花费额外8美元的费用吗？或者有什么方法省掉这8美元？

Maybe I would have bought the ice cream when I did some other errand."

也许我会在我处理其他杂事的时候顺便购买冰激凌。

So, people really respond very quickly to it, to prices.

依据其所付出的成本，人们可以快速的衡量并做出决定。

And the last point I want to make is Zipcar would never be possible without technology.

最后，我想说的是，没有技术作后盾，ZipCar是根本行不通的。

It required that it was completely trivial: that it takes 30 seconds

ZipCar需要处理很多琐碎的事情，因为人们希望在30秒内租到想要的车子

to reserve a car, go get it, drive it.

——从上报预定汽车开始，到得到车子，并驾车前往目的地。

And for me, as a service provider,

对于我，作为一个服务提供商，

I would never be able to provide you a car for an hour

如果交易成本是很高，

if the transaction cost was anything.

我就不能在一个小时内给客户提供一辆汽车。

So, without these wireless technologies, this, as a concept, could never happen.

因此，正是得益于无线技术，ZipCar的概念才能实现。

So, here's another example. This company is GoLoco --

这里是另一个例子，GoLoco公司。

I'm launching it in about three weeks --

我将会在3周内启动这个公司。

and I hope to do for ridesharing what I did for car sharing.

我想把汽车共享的思路运用到座位共享上。

This will apply to people across all of America.

这将会是面向所有美国人民的服务。

Today, 75 percent of the trips are single-occupancy vehicles,

在当今，75%的行程是一个人进行的，

yet 12 percent of trips to work are currently carpool.

仅有12%的行程是用拼车的方式来完成的。

And I think that we can apply social networks and online payment systems

我想我们可以通过完善社会网络通信系统以及在线支付系统

to completely change how people feel about ridesharing

来实现座位共享，

and make that trip much more efficient.

让我们的行程更加高效。

And so when I think about the future,

我所设想的未来场景就是，

people will be thinking that sharing the ride with someone

人们通常会认为和某些人拼车

is this incredibly great social event out of their day.

是他们社会体系里不可或缺的一部分。

You know, how did you get to TED? You went with other TEDsters.

设问一下，你是通过什么途径知道的TED呢？你和那些喜欢TED的人们相互交流。

How fabulous. Why would you ever want to go by yourself in your own car?

这是很酷的。那么你为什么还会亲自驾车去某个地方呢？

How did you go food shopping? You went with your neighbor, what a great social time.

你如何去购买日常的食品？通常你会和邻居一起去，这将是一件多么美妙的事情！

You know it's going to really transform how we feel about travel,

这一切将会变革我们传统意义上出行的观念。

and it will also, I think, enhance our freedom of mobility.

它的确会，我认为，它将会加强流动的自主性。

Where can I go today and who can I do it with?

现如今，我能到达什么地方以及我可以和谁一起去呢？

Those are the types of things that you will look at and feel.

这些都是你需要面对的事情，

And the social benefits:

同时还要考虑社会利益问题。

the rate of single-occupancy vehicles is, I told you, 75 percent;

单人出行的概率是75%；

I think we can get that down to 50 percent.

我觉得我们可以将之降低到50%。

The demand for parking, of course, is down, congestion and the CO2 emissions.

对停车位的需求会相应的减少，同时还有拥挤程度以及二氧化碳的排放量。

One last piece about this, of course, is that it's enabled by wireless technologies.

这一切能够实现的基础就是无线技术。

And it's the cost of driving that's making people want to be able to do this.

人们之所以期望如此，关键还是成本。

The average American spends 19 percent of their income on their car,

平均每个美国人在他们车子的花费占他们收入的19%。

and there's a pressure for them to reduce that cost, yet they have no outlet today.

这也是他们降低成本的动力，而且他们也没有别的出路。

So, the last example of this is congestion pricing, very famously done in London.

最后一个例子是关于高峰期行车收费，在伦敦已经做得相当不错，

It's when you charge a premium for people to drive on congested roads.

当你在高峰路段行驶的时候需要额外收费。

In London, the day they turned the congestion pricing on,

在伦敦，白天的时候需要征收额外的高峰路段费用，

there was a 25 percent decrease in congestion overnight,

晚上的时候就会有四分之一的降价。

and that's persisted for the four years in which they've been doing congestion pricing.

现如今这项政策已经实施有四年了。

And again, do people like the outcome?

人们对这项政策的效果满意吗？

Ken Livingstone was reelected.

伦敦市长肯·利文斯通顺利赢得了连任。

So again, we can see that price plays an enormous role in people's willingness

因此，值得注意的是，价格在人们考虑削减自驾出行的过程中

to reduce their driving behavior.

充当了极为重要的角色。

We've tripled the miles that we drive since 1970 and doubled them since 1982.

现在人们出行的里程数是1970年时的三倍、1982年的二倍。

There's a huge slack in that system;

这个系统里面有很大的疏漏。

with the right pricing we can undo that.

通过合适的定价就可以弥补其中的不足。

Congestion pricing is being discussed in every major city around the world

全球几个重要的城市都探究过拥挤定价的问题，

and is, again, wirelessly enabled.

当然，借助的是无线技术。

You weren't going to put tollbooths around the city of London

我们不会在伦敦的周边建立收费站，

and open and shut those gates.

通过开启和关闭这些出口来控制拥挤的交通。

And what congestion pricing is is that it's a technology trial and a psychological trial

高峰期行车收费是一项技术测试和心理测试，

for something called road pricing.

也就是通常耳闻的道路收费。

And road pricing is where we're all going to have to go,

道路收费往往出现在那些我们不得不去的地方。

because today we pay for our maintenance

当今社会中，政府通过征收汽油税进行

and wear and tear on our cars with gas taxes.

道路的维护和保养。

And as we get our cars more fuel-efficient,

如果我们能降低汽车的油耗，

that's going to be reducing the amount of revenue that you get off of those gas taxes,

就会相应的减少你所需缴纳的燃油税，

so we need to charge people by the mile that they drive.

因此我们需要按照驾驶人实际行驶的里程进行征税。

Whatever happens with congestion pricing and those technologies

与道路收费相关的最多因素就是那些

will be happening with road pricing.

将会用之于道路收费的技术。

Why do we travel too much?

我们为什么要做如此多的出行呢？

Car travel is underpriced and therefore we over-consumed.

驾车旅行是非常廉价的，也是被过度消费的。

We need to put this better market feedback.

我们需要更好的市场反馈。

And if we have it, you'll decide how many miles to drive,

如果我们能将这个设想实现，你就可以自主决定行驶的里程数、

what mode of travel, where to live and work.

旅行的方式以及居住地和工作地等。

And wireless technologies make this real-time loop possible.

无线技术让这种实时循环得以实现。

So, I want to move now to the second part of my story,

现在我想开始介绍我故事的第二部分，

which is: when are we going to start doing

就是，我们该在什么时机开始

this congestion pricing? Road pricing is coming.

高峰期行车收费呢？道路收费已经濒临。

When are we going to do it? Are we going to wait

我们该什么时候开始着手呢？我们是否需要

10 to 15 years for this to happen

再等待个15年呢？

or are we going to finally have this political will to make it happen in the next two years?

抑或者是在两年内就开展这项政策？

Because I'm going to say, that is going to be the tool that's going to turn our usage overnight.

我预言，这项政策将会在一夜间改变我们对汽车的使用方式。

And what kind of wireless technology are we going to use?

我们将会使用什么样的无线技术呢？

This is my big vision.

这就是我的大设想。

There is a tool that can help us bridge the digital divide,

有种工具可以帮助我们弥合数字鸿沟，

respond to emergencies, get traffic moving,

应对紧急情况，使交通畅顺，

provide a new engine for economic growth

为经济增长添加新引擎，

and dramatically reduce CO2 emissions in every sector.

同时大大降低二氧化碳的排放量。

And this is a moment from "The Graduate." Do you remember this moment?

这是来自“研究所”的一幕，不知道大家还记得不？

You guys are going to be the handsome young guy

你们将会是年轻帅气的年轻人，

and I'm going to be the wise businessman.

而我则是一名聪明的商人。

"I want to say one word to you, just one word."

“我只想对你说一句话，就一句话。”

"Yes, sir?" "Are you listening?" "Yes I am."

“好的，先生？”“你在听吗?”“是的，我在听。”

"Ad-hoc peer-to-peer self-configuring wireless networks."

”临时的点对点自组网无线网络。”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

These are also called mesh networks.

被称为多跳网络。

And in a mesh, every device contributes to and expands the network,

在一个多跳网络中，每一台设备都是网络的组成单元，从而使得网络得以扩张，

and I think you might have heard a little bit about it before.

大家之前对此一定有所耳闻。

I'm going to give you some examples.

我这里会给大家展示一些例子。

You'll be hearing later today from Alan Kay.

你们将会在AlanKay那里听到更详细的内容。

These laptops, when a child opens them up,

这些笔记本电脑，当一个小孩子启动它时，

they communicate with every single child in the classroom,

同一个教室里的电脑之间就会相互链接并开始发送和接收信息，

within that school, within that village.

范围可以扩展到整个学校，甚至整个乡镇。

And what is the cost of that communication system?

而这套通讯系统的成本是多少呢？

Zero dollars a month.

每月0美元。

Here's another example: in New Orleans,

这是另一个例子。在新奥尔良，

video cameras were mesh-enabled

监视器之间被用无线网络链接在了一起，

so that they could monitor crime in the downtown French Quarter.

因此，人们就可以监视在市中心的法国区的社会治安状况。

When the hurricane happened,

当飓风来临时，

the only communication system standing was the mesh network.

仅存的通讯系统就是这种多跳网络。

Volunteers flew in, added a whole bunch of devices,

有很多的志愿者加入到了其中，贡献了一大堆的设备。

and for the next 12 months,

在接下来的一年当中，

mesh networks were the only wireless that was happening in New Orleans.

多跳网络将会成为新奥尔良地区唯一的无线网络。

Another example is in Portsmouth, U.K.

另一个例子在英国的朴次矛斯。

They mesh-enabled 300 buses and they speak to these smart terminals.

人们将300辆公交车用无线连接起来。人们可以和那些智能终端对话，

You can look at the terminal

你可以看到智能终端上的信息，

and be able to see precisely where your bus is on the street

并从中获知你所要乘坐的公交车的位置。

and when it's coming, and you can buy your tickets in real time.

当车子驶过来的时候，你就能实时买到车票。

Again, all mesh-enabled. Monthly communication cost: zero.

值得强调的是，所有的多跳网络，每月的成本都是零。

So, the beauty of mesh networks:

多跳网络的优点：

you can have these very low-cost devices.

你可以拥有这些低成本的设备；

Zero ongoing communication costs. Highly scalable;

交互通讯的成本为零；极高的灵活度；

you can just keep adding them, and as in Katrina,

你甚至于可以在飓风Katrina里加入到多跳网络中来。

you can keep subtracting them -- as long as there's some, we can still communicate.

你可以随意出入其中；只要里面仍然有一些设备，我们就可以保持通讯顺畅。

They're resilient; their redundancy is built into this fabulous decentralized design.

这种网络是极具弹性的，冗余被内置到了这种神话般的分散设计当中。

What are the incredible weaknesses?

那么它有什么致命的弱点呢？

There isn't anybody in Washington lobbying to make it happen --

没有人愿意在华盛顿游说，使之投入建设，

or in those municipalities, to build out their cities with these wireless networks --

或者是在那些自治市，也没有人采用无线网络构建他们的城市，

because there's zero ongoing communications cost.

就是因为它的零成本。

So, the examples that I gave you are these islands of mesh networks,

我给你的那些例子都是一些独立的多跳网络，

and networks are interesting only as they are big.

当一个网络形成较大规模后才会变得有趣。

How do we create a big network?

如何构建一个大型的网络呢？

Are you guys ready again -- "The Graduate"?

你们重新准备好了吗？——“毕业生”

This time you will still play the handsome young thing, but I'll be the sexy woman.

那个时候你们可以继续耍酷，我也可以变得很性感。

These are the next two lines in the movie.

这就是电影里的两条主线。

"Where did you do it?" "In his car."

“你在哪里做的？”“在他的车里。”

So you know, when you stick this idea ... (Laughter)

你知道，当你坚持这个想法的时候——（笑声）——

where would we expect me, Robin Chase, to be thinking

大家期望我，RobinChase，所能做的就是

is imagine if we put a mesh-network device

把美国中的每一辆车子里面

in every single car across America.

装入一个多跳网络装置。

We could have a coast-to-coast, free wireless communication system.

这样的话，我们就会拥有海岸到海岸的免费无线通讯系统。

I guess I just want you to think about that.

我希望诸位能认真考虑一下。

And why is this going to happen? Because we're going to do congestion pricing,

我们为什么要这么去做？因为我们要缴纳道路拥挤费；

we are going to do road tolls,

我们还要缴纳养路费；

gas taxes are going to become road pricing.

燃油税即将成为道路收费。

These things are going to happen.

这一切都会发生。

What's the wireless technology we're going to use?

将来我们会采用什么无线技术呢？

Maybe we should use a good one. When are we going to do it?

最后选用一个好一点的。那我们什么时候开始着手去做呢？

Maybe we shouldn't wait for the 10 or 15 years for this to happen.

也许我们还是不要再等个10到15年了吧。

We should pull it forward.

我们需要立马将其排上日程安排。

So, I'd like us to launch the wireless Internet interstate wireless mesh system,

我希望我们能把每个州拥有的独立的多跳网络连接起来。

and require that this network be accessible to everyone, with open standards.

每个人都可以使用这个网络，并且网络采用公开的标准。

Right now in the transportation sector, we're creating these wireless devices --

现在，在交通部门，我们正在生产这些无线设备。

I guess you guys might have Fast Pass here or Easy Lane --

我猜，你们当中会有人拥有FastPass，或者EasyLane，

that are single-purpose devices in these closed networks.

这就是关乎多跳网络的单一用途的装置。

What is the point?

其重点是什么？

We're transferring just a few little data bits

我们同时转移了少量的数据，

when we're doing road controlling, road pricing.

当我们在处理道路控制，道路收费的时候。

We have this incredible excess capacity.

我们拥有着巨大的产能，

So, we can provide the lowest-cost means of going wireless coast-to-coast,

因此可以通过提供价格低廉的、海岸到海岸的无线通讯。

we can have resilient nationwide communication systems,

我们拥有可靠的、遍布全国的通讯系统。

we have a new tool for creating efficiencies in all sectors.

我们拥有一种可以提高所有部门效率的工具。

Imagine what happens when the cost of getting information

设想一下，你从一个地方取得另一个地方的信息

from anywhere to anywhere is close to zero.

所花费的成本近乎为0。

What you can do with that tool: we can create an economic engine.

可以通过这个工具做什么呢？我们可以创造一具新型的经济引擎。

Information should be free, and access to information should be free,

信息应该是免费的，获取信息也应该是免费的，

and we should be charging people for carbon.

同时我们还在向人们征收碳排放的费用。

I think this is a more powerful tool than the Interstate Highway Act,

我认为这个工具比州际公路法更有效，

and I think this is as important and world changing

并且它和电气化一样对经济全球化

to our economy as electrification.

起重要作用。

And if I had my druthers,

如果根据我的喜好去选择，

we would have an open-source version in addition to open standards.

我们将有一个开源版本，除了开放标准。

And this open-source version means that

开源版本意味着

it could be -- if we did a brilliant job of it --

——如果我们能做出卓有成效的工作——

it could be used around the world very quickly.

新型技术立即就可以投入使用。

So, going back to one of my earlier thoughts.

回到我之前的那个设想。

Imagine if every one of these buses in Lagos was part of the mesh network.

设想一下，如果每一辆拉各斯的公交车就是多跳网络的一部分，

When I went this morning to Larry Brilliant's TEDTalk prize

当我早晨来到LarryBrilliant的TEDTalk大奖会

-- his fabulous networks --

——他精彩的网络之一——

imagine if there was an open-source

假使这里有一个开源版本的多跳

mesh communications device that can be put into those networks,

通讯设备可以被加入到网络当中，

to make all that happen.

那么一切皆可以实现。

And we can be doing it if we could just get over the fact that

我们可以实现它，只要我们能够克服一个困难——

this little slice of things is going to be for free.

就是需要有些人将他们的设备免费对外开放，

We could make billions of dollars on top of it,

仅需如此，我们就可以籍此创造数以亿元的财富。

but this one particular slice of communications needs to be open source.

但是，这一个特殊的通信部件需要是开源的。

So, let's take control of this nightmare:

我们已经开始解决这个问题。

implement a gas tax immediately;

立即实施汽油税。

transition across the nation to road-tolling with this wireless mesh;

应用无线多跳网络在全国范围内过渡到道路收费。

require that the mesh be open to all, with open standards;

要求无线网络是对所有人开放的，并且也是公开标准的。

and, of course, use mesh networks.

当然，请大家来使用无线多跳网络吧。

Thank you. (Applause)

谢谢大家 （掌声）