Robin Chase: Getting cars off the road and data into the skies

譯者: Marie Wu 審譯者: Adrienne Lin

I'm going to talk about two stories today.

我今天要講二個主題，

One is how we need to use market-based pricing to affect demand

第一個是我們該如何利用市場定價機制來影響汽車的需求，

and use wireless technologies to dramatically reduce our emissions

以及利用無線科技來大幅降低

in the transportation sector.

交通工具的碳排放。

And the other is that there is an incredible opportunity

第二個主題則是探討未來無限可能的商機，

if we choose the right wireless technologies;

如果我們選擇對的無線科技，

how we can generate a new engine for economic growth

我們該如何為未來的經濟成長注入新動能？

and dramatically reduce C02 in the other sectors.

並大幅降低其他產業的二氧化碳排放？

I'm really scared.

我真的很害怕，

We need to reduce C02 emissions in ten to fifteen years by 80 percent

因為我們必須在未來的十到十五年內，降低80%的二氧化碳排放，

in order to avert catastrophic effects.

以避免災難發生。

And I am astounded that I'm standing here to tell you that.

要我站在這裡對各位宣告這件事，我自己也嚇壞了！

What are catastrophic effects? A three degree centigrade climate change rise

未來的災難是什麼？氣溫只要上升三度，

that will result in 50 percent species extinction.

50%的物種就會滅絕。

It's not a movie. This is real life.

這不是電影，這是我們的真實世界。

And I'm really worried, because when people talk about cars

我真的很擔心，每當有人談到汽車，

-- which I know something about --

我知道這個話題

the press and politicians and people in this room are all thinking,

會讓媒體、政客和在座的各位都聯想到：

"Let's use fuel-efficient cars."

「要買省油汽車」。

If we started today, 10 years from now, at the end of this window of opportunity,

如果我們從今天開始往後推十年，在機會之窗關閉之前，

those fuel-efficient cars will reduce our fossil fuel needs by four percent.

這些省油車可以減少我們對石油的使用量達4%。

That is not enough.

這個比例太低了。

But now I'll talk about some more pleasant things.

我現在先來談一些愉快的事，

Here are some ways that we can make some dramatic changes.

有某些方法可以帶來大幅度的改變。

So, Zipcar is a company that I founded seven years ago,

ZipCar是我在七年前創立的公司，

but it's an example of something called car sharing.

這家公司是基於汽車共享的理念而創立，

What Zipcar does is we park cars throughout dense urban areas

ZipCar做的是把車子停在都市叢林裡，

for members to reserve, by the hour and by the day, instead of using their own car.

會員則可以預約我們的車子，以小時或天數計算，而不需要自己買車。

How does it feel to be a person using a Zipcar?

使用ZipCar服務的人有什麼感想？

It means that I pay only for what I need.

就是我用多久就付多少錢，

All those hours when a car is sitting idle, I'm not paying for it.

其他沒人使用的時段，就不用付錢。

It means that I can choose a car exactly for that particular trip.

也就是說，我可以為任何一趟旅程挑選一台適合的車。

So, here's a woman that reserved MiniMia, and she had her day.

這位女士預約了MiniMia，她那一天過得很棒；

I can take a BMW when I'm seeing clients.

我要去見客戶時，我就開BMW；

I can drive my Toyota Element when I'm going to go on that surfing trip.

我要去衝浪時，我就開Toyota Element。

And the other remarkable thing is it's, I think, the highest status of car ownership.

我認為最棒的事是我對車子有絕對的自主權，

Not only do I have a fleet of cars available to me in seven cities around the world

我不只有一整個車隊可以選擇，還可以在七個國家裡，

that I can have at my beck and call,

招之即來，揮之即去，

but heaven forbid I would ever maintain

完全不用去想車子的維修

or deal with the repair or have anything to do with it.

或保養等相關事情。

It's like the car that you always wanted that your mom said that you couldn't have.

你可以駕駛你夢寐以求的車子，就是那種你媽說你不能開的車子，

I get all the good stuff and none of the bad.

我公司裡的車子都是好的，任君挑選。

So, what is the social result of this?

這會對社會造成什麼影響？

The social result is that today's Zipcar has 100,000 members

現在ZipCar有十萬個會員，

driving 3,000 cars parked in 3,000 parking spaces.

有三千台車子停在三千個停車位裡，

Instead of driving 12,000 miles a year, which is what the average city dweller does,

平均每台每年的駕駛哩程約為八百公里，而一般都市居民

they drive 500 miles a year. Are they happy?

車子哩程數每年是二萬公里，他們會開心嗎？

The company has been doubling in size ever since I founded it, or greater.

自從公司創立後，規模已成長了二倍以上，

People adore the company. And it's better,

大家都很喜歡我們，更棒的是，

you know? They like it.

他們愛死了我們的服務。

So, how is it that people went from the 12,000 miles a year to 500 miles?

為什麼開車的哩程數，會從二萬公里降到八百公里呢？

It's because they said, "It's eight to 10 dollars an hour and 65 dollars a day.

因為大家都會計算，租一個小時要8~10元，一天是65元，

If I'm going to go buy some ice cream,

若只是出去買個冰淇淋，

do I really want to spend eight dollars to go buy the ice cream? Or maybe I'll do without.

我幹嘛要花8塊錢去買個冰淇淋？或者不要開車去？

Maybe I would have bought the ice cream when I did some other errand."

又或者在出去辦事的時候再順便買就好？

So, people really respond very quickly to it, to prices.

消費者對於價格是很敏感的。

And the last point I want to make is Zipcar would never be possible without technology.

最後我要提的是，沒有科技的協助，就沒有ZipCar，

It required that it was completely trivial: that it takes 30 seconds

我們要求的是快速的服務，只要30秒就可以租車，

to reserve a car, go get it, drive it.

包括預約、取車、開走。

And for me, as a service provider,

而對我們提供服務的人來說，

I would never be able to provide you a car for an hour

如果成本過高的話，我根本不可能

if the transaction cost was anything.

只把車子出租一個小時。

So, without these wireless technologies, this, as a concept, could never happen.

假使沒有這些無線科技，這個理念就無法成形。

So, here's another example. This company is GoLoco --

我舉另一個例子，這是GoLoco公司，

I'm launching it in about three weeks --

將在三星期後上市，

and I hope to do for ridesharing what I did for car sharing.

我想延續汽車共享的概念來推廣汽車共乘，

This will apply to people across all of America.

並在全美國推廣這個業務。

Today, 75 percent of the trips are single-occupancy vehicles,

今天，有75%的車上只有駕駛一個人，

yet 12 percent of trips to work are currently carpool.

而有12%的人上班是採共乘制。

And I think that we can apply social networks and online payment systems

我在思考如何將社區網路和線上付費系統相結合，

to completely change how people feel about ridesharing

徹底改變人們對共乘的刻板印象，

and make that trip much more efficient.

讓共乘更能發揮效用。

And so when I think about the future,

我在想，未來人們

people will be thinking that sharing the ride with someone

將會把與別人共乘這件事，

is this incredibly great social event out of their day.

當成與別人社交的大事。

You know, how did you get to TED? You went with other TEDsters.

你們是怎麼來到TED會場的？和別的TED成員一起來的，

How fabulous. Why would you ever want to go by yourself in your own car?

很棒吧？你為什麼不自己開車來呢？

How did you go food shopping? You went with your neighbor, what a great social time.

平常買菜是怎麼去的？和鄰居一起去，有這麼一個互動時間很棒吧？

You know it's going to really transform how we feel about travel,

這將徹底顛覆我們對於交通工具的看法，

and it will also, I think, enhance our freedom of mobility.

也將徹底解放我們的行動自由度。

Where can I go today and who can I do it with?

今天我可以和誰一起去什麼地方呢？

Those are the types of things that you will look at and feel.

這些事情將會是你未來關注的焦點。

And the social benefits:

對社會也有好處，

the rate of single-occupancy vehicles is, I told you, 75 percent;

我剛才說過，車上只有駕駛一人的比例是75%，

I think we can get that down to 50 percent.

我認為可以下降到50%。

The demand for parking, of course, is down, congestion and the CO2 emissions.

停車的需求會下降，塞車會減少，二氧化碳排放也會減少。

One last piece about this, of course, is that it's enabled by wireless technologies.

最後，這些都要靠無線科技才能辦到，

And it's the cost of driving that's making people want to be able to do this.

也只有幫開車訂出價錢，才能促使人們去做這件事。

The average American spends 19 percent of their income on their car,

美國人平均花費所得的19%在汽車，

and there's a pressure for them to reduce that cost, yet they have no outlet today.

大家都希望能降低這筆開銷，但卻苦無良策，

So, the last example of this is congestion pricing, very famously done in London.

來看看最後一個例子，為塞車訂個價錢，倫敦已經成功做到了，

It's when you charge a premium for people to drive on congested roads.

他們針對駕駛擁塞路段的車輛收取費用。

In London, the day they turned the congestion pricing on,

倫敦開始收取塞車費的當天，

there was a 25 percent decrease in congestion overnight,

車流量立刻就下降了25%；

and that's persisted for the four years in which they've been doing congestion pricing.

而從那一天起，倫敦已經持續收取塞車費達四年時間了。

And again, do people like the outcome?

人們喜歡這個結果嗎？

Ken Livingstone was reelected.

肯．李文斯頓(倫敦市長)榮獲連任。

So again, we can see that price plays an enormous role in people's willingness

我們再一次看到了價格在消費者行為上所扮演的重要角色，

to reduce their driving behavior.

價格會降低消費者開車的意願。

We've tripled the miles that we drive since 1970 and doubled them since 1982.

人們開車的哩程數自1970年來增加了三倍，也比1982年以來增加二倍，

There's a huge slack in that system;

完全沒有任何機制在約束，

with the right pricing we can undo that.

但只要採用訂價機制，我們就可以改善這個問題。

Congestion pricing is being discussed in every major city around the world

世界各主要城市都在討論是否要徵收塞車費，

and is, again, wirelessly enabled.

但同樣的，也只有運用無線科技才能做到，

You weren't going to put tollbooths around the city of London

無線科技讓我們不必在倫敦各地設置收費亭，

and open and shut those gates.

還得開開關關各個閘門。

And what congestion pricing is is that it's a technology trial and a psychological trial

收取塞車費其實是為收取用路費進行暖身，

for something called road pricing.

進行科技與消費者心理的先期測試。

And road pricing is where we're all going to have to go,

收取用路費是未來必定要採取的機制，

because today we pay for our maintenance

因為目前我們是以徵收燃料稅的稅收，

and wear and tear on our cars with gas taxes.

支應道路的維護費用；

And as we get our cars more fuel-efficient,

一旦大家都開省油的汽車，

that's going to be reducing the amount of revenue that you get off of those gas taxes,

燃料稅的稅收也必將隨之減少，

so we need to charge people by the mile that they drive.

所以應該對消費者所駕駛的哩程數課稅。

Whatever happens with congestion pricing and those technologies

我們現在為收取塞車費所使用的科技，

will be happening with road pricing.

在未來收取用路費時也用得上。

Why do we travel too much?

我們為什麼開了這麼多哩程？

Car travel is underpriced and therefore we over-consumed.

因為開車哩程費用被嚴重低估，導致大家過度開車，

We need to put this better market feedback.

我們必須採用市場機制來導正此一現象。

And if we have it, you'll decide how many miles to drive,

一旦收取用路費，大家會開始思考要開多少哩程，

what mode of travel, where to live and work.

要採取什麼旅遊模式，在哪居住、工作。

And wireless technologies make this real-time loop possible.

無線科技可以讓這一連串的思考化為行動。

So, I want to move now to the second part of my story,

我現在要來談談第二個主題，

which is: when are we going to start doing

什麼時候我們才要開始收取塞車費？

this congestion pricing? Road pricing is coming.

收取用路費已是迫在眉睫了！

When are we going to do it? Are we going to wait

什麼時候才要做？難道我們還要等上

10 to 15 years for this to happen

10到15年才要做嗎？

or are we going to finally have this political will to make it happen in the next two years?

還是我們應該投票決定讓收費這件事在二年內實現？

Because I'm going to say, that is going to be the tool that's going to turn our usage overnight.

我要強調一點，收費機制絕對可以讓我們的用路頻率一夕之間改變。

And what kind of wireless technology are we going to use?

我們該採用什麼樣的無線科技呢？

This is my big vision.

我有一個遠大的夢想，

There is a tool that can help us bridge the digital divide,

我希望有一種工具可以幫助我們連結各個網點、

respond to emergencies, get traffic moving,

對緊急事件做出回應、讓交通順暢、

provide a new engine for economic growth

為經濟成長提供新的動能、

and dramatically reduce CO2 emissions in every sector.

並大幅降低各個產業的二氧化碳排放量。

And this is a moment from "The Graduate." Do you remember this moment?

這是電影「畢業生」的經典對白，不知道大家還記不記得？

You guys are going to be the handsome young guy

你們來扮演那些帥氣的年輕人，

and I'm going to be the wise businessman.

而我則來扮演那個成功的商人。

"I want to say one word to you, just one word."

「我要給你一句忠告，就一句。」

"Yes, sir?" "Are you listening?" "Yes I am."

「好的，先生。」「你有在聽嗎？」「我有在聽。」

"Ad-hoc peer-to-peer self-configuring wireless networks."

「點對點自我組態無線網路。」(原台詞為「塑膠」)

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

These are also called mesh networks.

這種網路又稱為網點網路(mesh networks)，

And in a mesh, every device contributes to and expands the network,

在整個網點裡，每一個網點都會連到網路，也會使網路擴張，

and I think you might have heard a little bit about it before.

我相信各位之前都應該有聽過這個東西。

I'm going to give you some examples.

我來舉幾個例子，

You'll be hearing later today from Alan Kay.

今天稍後亞蘭．凱也會談到這個主題。

These laptops, when a child opens them up,

只要有個小孩把電源打開，這些電腦

they communicate with every single child in the classroom,

就會和教室裡、學校裡或村子裡的

within that school, within that village.

其他小孩的電腦互相連結溝通。

And what is the cost of that communication system?

這種互相通訊的系統要花多少錢？

Zero dollars a month.

不用錢。

Here's another example: in New Orleans,

還有一個例子，在紐奧良，

video cameras were mesh-enabled

所有的監視攝影機是以網點互連的，

so that they could monitor crime in the downtown French Quarter.

所以可以監視在法國區的犯罪活動；

When the hurricane happened,

而在颶風肆虐後，

the only communication system standing was the mesh network.

唯一還能運作的系統就是這種網點網路，

Volunteers flew in, added a whole bunch of devices,

義工們來到紐奧良，捐贈了一堆設備，

and for the next 12 months,

在十二個月之後，

mesh networks were the only wireless that was happening in New Orleans.

網點網路成了紐奧良唯一的無線網路。

Another example is in Portsmouth, U.K.

另一個例子是在英國普茲茅斯，

They mesh-enabled 300 buses and they speak to these smart terminals.

他們將300台公車以網點串連起來，你可以透過這個螢幕發話，

You can look at the terminal

也可以從螢幕上看到

and be able to see precisely where your bus is on the street

你要搭的公車現在在哪裡，

and when it's coming, and you can buy your tickets in real time.

在公車到站之前，你可以及時買到車票。

Again, all mesh-enabled. Monthly communication cost: zero.

這全部都是以網點網路辦到的，通訊成本是零。

So, the beauty of mesh networks:

網點網路的優點是：

you can have these very low-cost devices.

設備的成本很低、

Zero ongoing communication costs. Highly scalable;

通訊的成本是零、可隨意增減網點數量...

you can just keep adding them, and as in Katrina,

你可以增加網點的數目，或是像在卡崔娜颶風來襲時，

you can keep subtracting them -- as long as there's some, we can still communicate.

網點數目大量減少，但只要還有網點，就可以通訊，

They're resilient; their redundancy is built into this fabulous decentralized design.

他們的彈性很大，一些備用網點已經內建在這種分權管理的系統裡了。

What are the incredible weaknesses?

網點網路的缺點是什麼？

There isn't anybody in Washington lobbying to make it happen --

沒有人在華盛頓進行游說要建置這種系統，

or in those municipalities, to build out their cities with these wireless networks --

也沒有人在自己的都市裡要求建置這種無線網路，

because there's zero ongoing communications cost.

因為後續的通訊成本是零。

So, the examples that I gave you are these islands of mesh networks,

我剛才舉的例子都是這種網點網路的零星成果，

and networks are interesting only as they are big.

但網路要夠大才能發揮作用，

How do we create a big network?

那我們要怎麼建立大型的網路呢？

Are you guys ready again -- "The Graduate"?

你們準備好再來演一次「畢業生」了嗎？

This time you will still play the handsome young thing, but I'll be the sexy woman.

這次你們還是演帥氣的年輕人，我則來扮演性感的女主角，

These are the next two lines in the movie.

這是電影中的二句台詞：

"Where did you do it?" "In his car."

「你們在哪裡做？」「在他的車上。」

So you know, when you stick this idea ... (Laughter)

好，只要一想到這個...

where would we expect me, Robin Chase, to be thinking

你們以為我羅蘋．卻斯會想什麼？

is imagine if we put a mesh-network device

我當然是想把這種網點網路設備

in every single car across America.

放在全美國的每一輛車裡啊！

We could have a coast-to-coast, free wireless communication system.

這樣我們就能擁有一個連結東西二岸的免費通訊網路。

I guess I just want you to think about that.

我要你們想一想，

And why is this going to happen? Because we're going to do congestion pricing,

為什麼要這麼做？因為我們要收取塞車費，

we are going to do road tolls,

我們要收用路費，

gas taxes are going to become road pricing.

我們要把燃料稅轉變成對用路人收費，

These things are going to happen.

這些事都將一一實現。

What's the wireless technology we're going to use?

我們要用什麼樣的無線科技？

Maybe we should use a good one. When are we going to do it?

我們應該要用優良的無線科技。我們什麼時候該開始收費？

Maybe we shouldn't wait for the 10 or 15 years for this to happen.

或許我們不應該等上10年、15年，

We should pull it forward.

我們應該把時間往前拉。

So, I'd like us to launch the wireless Internet interstate wireless mesh system,

我希望我們能建立跨州的無線網點網路系統，

and require that this network be accessible to everyone, with open standards.

讓每個人都能使用，要有公開的規範。

Right now in the transportation sector, we're creating these wireless devices --

我們現在正為運輸產業開發無線設備，

I guess you guys might have Fast Pass here or Easy Lane --

我猜你們有人一定有迪士尼的快速通行券(FastPass)或EasyLane這類東西，

that are single-purpose devices in these closed networks.

但那些都是在封閉系統裡所使用的單一用途票券，

What is the point?

為什麼要這樣設計？

We're transferring just a few little data bits

當我們為了控制交通流量而收取用路費時，

when we're doing road controlling, road pricing.

我們所要傳輸的只是一小部分的資料，

We have this incredible excess capacity.

但這個系統容量很大，

So, we can provide the lowest-cost means of going wireless coast-to-coast,

我們可以利用這個低成本的系統做到東西二岸的無線傳輸，

we can have resilient nationwide communication systems,

我們也可以擁有跨越全國的通訊系統，

we have a new tool for creating efficiencies in all sectors.

這是一個可以讓各個產業效率提升的新工具。

Imagine what happens when the cost of getting information

想想看，從任何一點到任何一點的

from anywhere to anywhere is close to zero.

資料傳輸成本都趨近於零，

What you can do with that tool: we can create an economic engine.

這個工具的用途可大了！我們可以創造經濟動能！

Information should be free, and access to information should be free,

資訊應該是免費的，擷取資訊也應該是免費的，

and we should be charging people for carbon.

碳排放才應該收費。

I think this is a more powerful tool than the Interstate Highway Act,

我認為這個工具將比跨州公路法案來得更強大，

and I think this is as important and world changing

對我們的電子化經濟更是重要，

to our economy as electrification.

也會改變整個世界。

And if I had my druthers,

如果我可以表達意見的話，

we would have an open-source version in addition to open standards.

我希望在這個開放的規範架構內，還能有開放的程式碼，

And this open-source version means that

將程式碼開放的意義在於，

it could be -- if we did a brilliant job of it --

如果我們做得不錯，

it could be used around the world very quickly.

這個系統將很快地被世界各國所採用。

So, going back to one of my earlier thoughts.

回頭來看看我先前提到的想法，

Imagine if every one of these buses in Lagos was part of the mesh network.

想像在(奈及利亞首都)拉哥斯公車上的每個人都是網路上的各個網點，

When I went this morning to Larry Brilliant's TEDTalk prize

而當我在今早出席賴利．布里安特獲頒TED大獎典禮時，

-- his fabulous networks --

我也在想像

imagine if there was an open-source

如何將開放程式碼的

mesh communications device that can be put into those networks,

網點網路通訊設備，和賴利．布里安特

to make all that happen.

超棒的網路相結合。

And we can be doing it if we could just get over the fact that

我們一定可以做到，如果我們能讓大家瞭解

this little slice of things is going to be for free.

這些網路是免費的，

We could make billions of dollars on top of it,

我們就能藉此創造出數十億的經濟產值。

but this one particular slice of communications needs to be open source.

但這個通訊網路必須有開放的程式碼，

So, let's take control of this nightmare:

所以我們必得掃除這個夢魘，

implement a gas tax immediately;

立即實施燃料稅徵收，

transition across the nation to road-tolling with this wireless mesh;

利用無線網路對全國用路人收取用路費。

require that the mesh be open to all, with open standards;

這需要有完全開放的網點網路，有開放的規範，

and, of course, use mesh networks.

當然，我們也得要使用這種網點網路才行。

Thank you. (Applause)

謝謝！