After billions of years of monotony, the universe is waking up | David Deutsch

Prevodilac: Vladimir Milosevic Lektor: Ivana Korom

I'm thrilled to be talking to you by this high-tech method.

Radujem se što vam se obraćam ovom visokotehnološkom metodom.

Of all humans who have ever lived,

Od svih ljudi koji su ikada živeli,

the overwhelming majority would have found what we are doing here

ogromnoj većini bi ovo što radimo ovde

incomprehensible, unbelievable.

bilo nezamislivo, neverovatno.

Because, for thousands of centuries,

Jer, hiljadama vekova,

in the dark time before the scientific revolution

tokom mračnih vremena pre naučne revolucije

and the Enlightenment,

i prosvetiteljstva,

people had low expectations.

ljudi su imali niska očekivanja.

For their lives, for their descendants' lives.

Za svoje živote, za živote svojih potomaka.

Typically, they expected

Tipično, očekivali su

nothing significantly new or better to be achieved, ever.

da ništa značajno novo ili bolje ne bude postignuto, ikada.

This pessimism famously appears in the Bible,

Ovaj pesimizam se poznato pojavljuje u Bibliji,

in one of the few biblical passages with a named author.

u jednom od malog broja biblijskih tekstova sa imenovanim autorom.

He's called Qohelet, he's an enigmatic chap.

On je nazivan Propovednikom (hebr. Kohelet), i bio je zagonetni momak.

He wrote, "What has been is what will be,

Pisao je: "Što je bilo to će i biti,

and what has been done is what will be done;

što se činilo to će se i činiti,

there is nothing new under the sun.

i nema ništa novo pod suncem.

Is there something of which it is said, 'Look, this is new.'

Ima li što za što bi ko rekao: Vidi, to je novo?

No, that thing was already done in the ages that came before us."

Ne, već je bilo za vijekova koji su bili prije nas."

Qohelet was describing a world without novelty.

Propovednik je opisivao svet bez noviteta.

By novelty I mean something new in Qohelet's sense,

Pod novitetima mislim na nešto novo u Propovednikovom smislu,

not merely something that's changed,

ne prosto na nešto što se promenilo,

but a significant change with lasting effects,

nego na značajnu promenu, sa trajnim efektima,

where people really would say,

gde bi ljudi zaista rekli,

"Look, this is new,"

"Vidi, ovo je novo,"

and, preferably, "good."

i, poželjno bi bilo, "dobro."

So, purely random changes aren't novelty.

Dakle, čisto nasumične promene nisu noviteti.

OK, Heraclitus did say a man can't step in the same river twice,

Dobro, Heraklit jeste rekao da čovek ne može kročiti u istu reku dva puta,

because it's not the same river, he's not the same man.

jer to nije ista reka, i on nije isti čovek.

But if the river is changing randomly,

Ali ako se reka menja nasumice,

it really is the same river.

ona u suštini jeste ista reka.

In contrast,

Nasuprot tome,

if an idea in a mind spreads to other minds,

ako se ideja u jednom umu proširi na druge umove,

and changes lives for generations,

i promeni živote generacijama unapred,

that is novelty.

to jeste novitet.

Human life without novelty

Ljudski život bez noviteta

is life without creativity, without progress.

je život bez kreativnosti, bez napretka.

It's a static society, a zero-sum game.

To je statično društvo, igra nulte sume.

That was the living hell in which Qohelet lived.

To je bio životni pakao u kome je Propovednik živeo.

Like everyone, until a few centuries ago.

Kao i svi drugi, do pre nekoliko vekova.

It was hell, because for humans,

Bio je pakao, jer za ljude,

suffering is intimately related to staticity.

patnja je tesno povezana sa statičnošću.

Because staticity isn't just frustrating.

Jer statičnost nije samo frustrirajuća.

All sources of suffering --

Svi izvori patnje -

famine, pandemics, incoming asteroids,

glad, pandemije, nadolazeći asteroidi,

and things like war and slavery,

i stvari kao rat i ropstvo,

hurt people only until we have created the knowledge to prevent them.

pogađali su ljude samo dok nismo stvorili znanje da ih sprečimo.

There's a story in Somerset Maugham's novel "Of Human Bondage"

Postoji priča u noveli Somerseta Moma "O ljudskom robovanju"

about an ancient sage

o prastarom mudracu

who summarizes the entire history of mankind as,

koji rezimira čitavu istoriju čovečanstva kao,

"He was born,

"Rođen je,

he suffered and he died."

patio je, i umro je."

And it goes on:

I nastavlja se:

"Life was insignificant and death without consequence."

"Život je bio beznačajan, a smrt bez posledica."

And indeed, the overwhelming majority of humans who have ever lived

I zaista, ogromna većina ljudi koji su ikada živeli

had lives of suffering and grueling labor,

imala je živote patnje i napornog rada,

before dying young and in agony.

pre nego što su umrli mladi i u agoniji.

And yes, in most generations

I da, u većini generacija

nothing had any novel consequence for subsequent generations.

ništa nije dalo nikakve nove posledice za naredne generacije.

Nevertheless, when ancient people tried to explain their condition,

Ipak, kada su drevni ljudi pokušavali da objasne svoje okolnosti,

they typically did so in grandiose cosmic terms.

tipično su to radili u grandioznim kosmičkim metaforama.

Which was the right thing to do, as it turns out.

Što je bila ispravna stvar, kako se ispostavlja.

Even though their actual explanations, their myths,

Iako su njihova konkretna objašnjenja, njihovi mitovi,

were largely false.

bili najvećim delom pogrešni.

Some tried to explain

Neki su pokušali da objasne

the grimness and monotony of their world

tmurnost i monotoniju svoga sveta

in terms of an endless cosmic war between good and evil,

u smislu beskonačnog kosmičkog rata između dobra i zla

in which humans were the battleground.

u kome su ljudi bili bojno polje.

Which neatly explained why their own experience was full of suffering,

Što je zgodno objasnilo zašto je njihovo lično iskustvo bilo puno patnje

and why progress never happened.

i zašto se napredak nikad nije događao.

But it wasn't true.

Ali to nije bila istina.

Amazingly enough,

Začuđujuće,

all their conflict and suffering

svi njihovi sukobi i patnje

were just due to the way they processed ideas.

bili su samo zbog načina kako su procesirali ideje.

Being satisfied with dogma, and just-so stories,

Jer su se zadovoljavali dogmama, i "eto tako" pričama,

rather than criticizing them

umesto da ih kritikuju

and trying to guess better explanations of the world and of their own condition.

i pokušaju da nagađaju bolja objašjenja sveta i svojih sopstvenih okolnosti.

Twentieth-century physics did create better explanations,

Fizika dvadesetog veka jeste stvorila bolja objašnjenja,

but still in terms of a cosmic war.

ali i dalje u metaforama kosmičkog rata.

This time, the combatants were order and chaos, or entropy.

Ovoga puta, borci su bili red i haos, ili entropija.

That story does allow for hope for the future.

Ta priča, istina, dozvoljava nadu za budućnost.

But in another way,

Ali na drugi način je

it's even bleaker than the ancient myths,

čak i sumornija nego drevni mitovi,

because the villain, entropy,

jer zlikovac, entropija,

is preordained to have the final victory,

je predodređena da odnese konačnu pobedu,

when the inexorable laws of thermodynamics shut down all novelty

kada neumoljivi zakoni termodinamike uguše svaku inovaciju

with the so-called heat death of the universe.

takozvanom toplotnom smrću svemira.

Currently, there's a story of a local battle in that war,

Trenutno, postoji priča o lokalnoj bitki u tom ratu,

between sustainability, which is order,

između održivosti, koja je red,

and wastefulness, which is chaos --

i rasipništva, koje je haos -

that's the contemporary take on good and evil,

to je savremena verzija dobra i zla,

often with the added twist that humans are the evil,

često sa peripetijom da sami ljudi jesu zlo,

so we shouldn't even try to win.

pa ne bi trebalo čak ni da pokušamo da pobedimo.

And recently,

A u poslednje vreme,

there have been tales of another cosmic war,

bilo je priča o još jednom kosmičkom ratu,

between gravity, which collapses the universe,

između gravitacije, koja urušava svemir,

and dark energy, which finally shreds it.

i tamne energije, koja ga na kraju raspline.

So this time,

Tako da ovoga puta,

whichever of those cosmic forces wins,

koja god od ovih kosmičkih sila pobedi,

we lose.

mi gubimo.

All those pessimistic accounts of the human condition

Sva ova pesimistična tumačenja ljudskih okolnosti

contain some truth,

sadrže nešto istine,

but as prophecies,

ali kao proročanstva,

they're all misleading, and all for the same reason.

sva vode u zabludu, i sva iz istog razloga.

None of them portrays humans as what we really are.

Nijedno od njih ne predstavlja ljude onim što zaista jesmo.

As Jacob Bronowski said,

Kao što je Džejkob Bronovski rekao,

"Man is not a figure in the landscape --

"Čovek nije figura u predelu -

he is the shaper of the landscape."

on je onaj koji oblikuje predeo."

In other words,

Drugim rečima,

humans are not playthings of cosmic forces,

ljudi nisu igračke kosmičkih sila,

we are users of cosmic forces.

mi smo korisnici kosmičkih sila.

I'll say more about that in a moment,

Reći ću više o tome za trenutak,

but first, what sorts of thing create novelty?

ali prvo, kakve to stvari stvaraju novitete?

Well, the beginning of the universe surely did.

Pa, početak univerzuma sigurno jeste stvorio novitete.

The big bang, nearly 14 billion years ago,

Veliki prasak, pre blizu 14 milijardi godina,

created space, time and energy,

stvorio je prostor, vreme i energiju.

everything physical.

sve što je fizičko.

And then, immediately,

A zatim, odmah,

what I call the first era of novelty,

ono što ja zovem prvom erom noviteta,

with the first atom, the first star,

sa prvim atomom, prvom zvezdom,

the first black hole,

prvom crnom rupom,

the first galaxy.

prvom galaksijom.

But then, at some point,

Ali onda, u nekom momentu,

novelty vanished from the universe.

noviteti su nestali iz kosmosa.

Perhaps from as early as 12 or 13 billion years ago,

Možda već od pre 12 ili 13 milijardi godina,

right up to the present day,

ravno sve do današnjeg dana,

there's never been any new kind of astronomical object.

više nikada nije bilo nikakve nove vrste astronomskog objekta.

There's only been what I call the great monotony.

Bilo je samo ono što ja zovem velika monotonija.

So, Qohelet was accidentally even more right

Dakle, Propovednik je slučajno bio još više u pravu

about the universe beyond the Sun

o kosmosu iza Sunca

than he was about under the Sun.

nego što je bio o ispod Sunca.

So long as the great monotony lasts,

Dokle god velika monotonija traje,

what has been out there

šta je bilo tamo negde

really is what will be.

je zaista šta će i biti.

And there is nothing out there

I nema ničega tamo negde

of which it can truly be said, "Look, this is new."

o čemu se stvarno može reći, "Vidi, ovo je novo."

Nevertheless,

Ipak,

at some point during the great monotony,

u nekom momentu velike monotonije,

there was an event -- inconsequential at the time,

bio je događaj - nebitan u tom trenutku,

and even billions of years later,

pa čak i milijardama godina kasnije,

it had affected nothing beyond its home planet --

nije delovao ni na šta izvan svoje planete -

yet eventually, it could cause cosmically momentous novelty.

ali bi na kraju mogao biti u stanju da uzrokuje kosmički monumentalne novitete.

That event was the origin of life:

Taj događaj je nastanak života:

creating the first genetic knowledge,

stvaranje prvog genetskog znanja,

coding for biological adaptations,

kodiranje za biološke adaptacije,

coding for novelty.

kodiranje za novitete.

On Earth, it utterly transformed the surface.

Na Zemlji, potpuno je transformisao površinu.

Genes in the DNA of single-celled organisms

Geni u DNK jednoćelijskih organizama

put oxygen in the air,

stavili su kiseonik u vazduh,

extracted CO2,

uklonili su CO2,

put chalk and iron ore into the ground,

stavili su kredu i rudu gvožđa u tlo,

hardly a cubic inch of the surface to some depth has remained unaffected

teško da ima kubni centimetar površine sve do neke dubine da je ostao neizmenjen

by those genes.

od tih gena.

The Earth became, if not a novel place on the cosmic scale,

Zemlja je postala, ako ne novo i jedinstveno mesto u kosmičkom rangu,

certainly a weird one.

onda svakako čudno mesto.

Just as an example, beyond Earth,

Samo kao primer, izvan Zemlje,

only a few hundred different chemical substances have been detected.

detektovano je samo nekoliko stotina različitih hemijskih supstanci.

Presumably, there are some more in lifeless locations,

Pretpostavimo da ima i nešto više na beživotnim mestima,

but on Earth,

ali na Zemlji,

evolution created billions of different chemicals.

evolucija je stvorila milijarde različitih hemikalija.

And then the first plants, animals,

A zatim prve biljke, životinje,

and then, in some ancestor species of ours,

a zatim, u nekoj nama predačkoj vrsti,

explanatory knowledge.

objašnjavajuće znanje.

For the first time in the universe, for all we know.

Po prvi put u kosmosu, koliko nam je poznato.

Explanatory knowledge is the defining adaptation of our species.

Objašnjavajuće znanje je adaptacija naše vrste koja nas definiše.

It differs from the nonexplanatory knowledge

Ono se razlikuje od neobjašnjavajućeg znanja

in DNA, for instance,

u DNK, na primer,

by being universal.

po tome što je univerzalno.

That is to say, whatever can be understood,

To znači, šta god je moguće razumeti,

can be understood through explanatory knowledge.

može se razumeti kroz objašnjavajuće znanje.

And more, any physical process

I više, bilo koji fizički proces

can be controlled by such knowledge,

može se kontrolisati takvim znanjem,

limited only by the laws of physics.

ograničeno samo zakonima fizike.

And so, explanatory knowledge, too,

I tako, objašnjavajuće znanje, takođe,

has begun to transform the Earth's surface.

je počelo da transformiše površinu Zemlje.

And soon, the Earth will become the only known object in the universe

I uskoro, Zemlja će postati jedini poznati objekat u kosmosu

that turns aside incoming asteroids instead of attracting them.

koji odvraća nadolazeće asteroide umesto da ih privlači.

Qohelet was understandably misled

Propovednik je bio razumljivo doveden u zabludu

by the painful slowness of progress in his day.

bolnom sporošću napretka u njegovo doba.

Novelty in human life was still too rare, too gradual,

Noviteti u ljudskom životu su bili previše retiki, previše postepeni,

to be noticed in one generation.

da bi se primetili tokom jedne generacije.

And in the biosphere,

A u biosferi,

the evolution of novel species was even slower.

evolucija novitetnih vrsta je bila još sporija.

But both things were happening.

Ali obe stvari su se događale.

Now, why is there a great monotony in the universe at large,

Dakle, zašto postoji velika monotonija u kosmosu kao celini,

and what makes our planet buck that trend?

i šta to čini da naša planeta preokreće taj trend?

Well, the universe at large is relatively simple.

Pa, kosmos kao celina je relativno jednostavan.

Stars are so simple

Zvezde su toliko jednostavne,

that we can predict their behavior billions of years into the future,

da možemo predvideti njihovo ponašanje milijardama godina u budućnost,

and retrodict how they formed billions of years ago.

i sagledati unatrag kako su nastale pre milijardi godina.

So why is the universe simple?

Dakle zašto je kosmos jednostavan?

Basically, it's because big, massive, powerful things

U osnovi, zato što velike, masivne, moćne stvari

strongly affect lesser things, and not vice versa.

snažno deluju na manje stvari, a ne obrnuto.

I call that the hierarchy rule.

Ja to nazivam pravilom hijerarhije.

For example, when a comet hits the Sun,

Na primer, kada kometa pogodi Sunce,

the Sun carries on just as before,

Sunce nastavlja isto kao ranije,

but the comet is vaporized.

ali je kometa isparena.

For the same reason,

Iz istog razloga,

big things are not much affected by small parts of themselves,

velike stvari nisu pod velikim uticajem sopstvenih malih delova,

i.e., by details.

t.j. pod uticajem detalja.

Which means that their overall behavior

Što znači da je njihovo sveukupno ponašanje

is simple.

jednostavno.

And since nothing very new can happen to things

I pošto ništa veoma novo ne može da se dogodi stvarima

that remain simple,

koje ostaju jednostavne,

the hierarchy rule, by causing large-scale simplicity,

pravilo hijerarhije, uzrokujući jednostavnost u velikim razmerama,

has caused the great monotony.

je uzrokovalo veliku monotoniju.

But, the saving grace is

Ali, spasonosni izlaz je

the hierarchy rule is not a law of nature.

da pravilo hijerarhije nije zakon prirode.

It just happens to have held so far in the universe,

Samo se desilo da se ono održalo do sada u kosmosu,

except here.

osim ovde.

In our biosphere, molecule-sized objects, genes,

U našoj biosferi, objekti veličine molekula, geni,

control vastly disproportionate resources.

kontrolišu nesrazmerno ogromne resurse.

The first genes for photosynthesis,

Prvi geni za fotosintezu,

by causing their own proliferation,

uzrokovanjem sopstvenog širenja,

and then transforming the surface of the planet,

a zatim transformisanjem površine planete,

have violated or reversed the hierarchy rule

prekršili su i preokrenuli pravilo hijerarhije

by the mind-blowing factor of 10 to the power 40.

sa neverovatnim faktorom od 10 na 40-i.

Explanatory knowledge is potentially far more powerful

Objašnjavajuće znanje je potencijalno daleko moćnije

because of universality,

zbog univerzalnosti,

and more rapidly created.

i brže se stvara.

When human knowledge has achieved a factor 10 to the 40,

Kada ljudsko znanje dostigne faktor od 10 na 40-i.

it will pretty much control the entire galaxy,

ono će otprilike kontrolisati čitavu galaksiju,

and will be looking beyond.

i gledaće dalje iza.

So humans,

Dakle ljudi,

and any other explanation creators who may exist out there,

i bilo koji drugi kreatori objašnjenja koji možda negde postoje,

are the ultimate agents of novelty for the universe.

su vrhovni izvršioci inovacija za kosmos.

We are the reason and the means

Mi smo razlog i sredstvo

by which novelty and creativity, knowledge, progress,

pomoću kojeg noviteti i kreativnost, znanje, napredak,

can have objective, large-scale physical effects.

mogu imati objektivne, krupne fizičke efekte.

From the human perspective,

Iz ljudske perspektive,

the only alternative to that living hell of static societies

jedina alternativa životnom paklu statičnih društava

is continual creation of new ideas,

je kontinualno stvaranje novih ideja,

behaviors, new kinds of objects.

ponašanja, novih vrsta objekata.

This robot will soon be obsolete,

Ovaj robot će uskoro biti zastareo,

because of new explanatory knowledge, progress.

zbog novog objašnjavajućeg znanja, napretka.

But from the cosmic perspective,

Ali iz kosmičke perspektive,

explanatory knowledge is the nemesis of the hierarchy rule.

objašnjavajuće znanje je pogubitelj pravila hijerarhije.

It's the destroyer of the great monotony.

Ono je uništitelj velike monotonije.

So it's the creator of the next cosmological era,

Dakle ono je stvaralac naredne kosmološke ere,

the Anthropocene.

Antropocena.

If one can speak of a cosmic war,

Ako se može govoriti o kosmičkom ratu,

it's not the one portrayed in those pessimistic stories.

to nije taj koji je prikazan u onim pesimističnim pričama.

It's a war between monotony and novelty,

To je rat između monotonije i noviteta,

between stasis and creativity.

između zastoja i kreativnosti.

And in this war,

I u ovom ratu,

our side is not destined to lose.

našoj strani nije suđeno da izgubi.

If we choose to apply our unique capacity to create explanatory knowledge,

Ako odlučimo da koristimo našu jedinstvenu sposobnost

stvaranja objašnjavajućeg znanja,

we could win.

mogli bismo da pobedimo.

Thanks.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)