After billions of years of monotony, the universe is waking up | David Deutsch

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang

I'm thrilled to be talking to you by this high-tech method.

能用這種高科技的方式 和各位交談，讓我很興奮。

Of all humans who have ever lived,

從古至今所有的人類中，

the overwhelming majority would have found what we are doing here

絕大部分應該都會認為 我們在這裡所做的事

incomprehensible, unbelievable.

是無法理解也無法置信的。

Because, for thousands of centuries,

因為，數千世紀以來，

in the dark time before the scientific revolution

在科學革命和啟蒙運動 之前的黑暗時期，

and the Enlightenment,

people had low expectations.

人們的期望很低。

For their lives, for their descendants' lives.

對他們的生活、 他們後裔的生活，期望很低。

Typically, they expected

通常，他們從來就不期望

nothing significantly new or better to be achieved, ever.

會有什麼更新、 更好的新事物出現。

This pessimism famously appears in the Bible,

這種悲觀比比皆是， 最為人所知的例子就是聖經，

in one of the few biblical passages with a named author.

在一位具名作者所著的少數聖經 段落中，就有一段可當作例子。

He's called Qohelet, he's an enigmatic chap.

這位作者叫做傳道者， 他是個謎樣的傢伙。

He wrote, "What has been is what will be,

他寫道：「已有的事後必再有，

and what has been done is what will be done;

已行的事後必再行；

there is nothing new under the sun.

日光之下並無新事。

Is there something of which it is said, 'Look, this is new.'

豈有一件事人能 指著說『這是新的』？

No, that thing was already done in the ages that came before us."

哪知，在我們以前的 世代早已有了。」

Qohelet was describing a world without novelty.

傳道者描述的世界 是沒有新穎事物的世界。

By novelty I mean something new in Qohelet's sense,

我說的新穎是指 傳道者觀點的新事物：

not merely something that's changed,

不只是有改變的事物，

but a significant change with lasting effects,

且還是具有持久效應的重大改變，

where people really would say,

會讓大家說：

"Look, this is new,"

「看，這是新的。」

and, preferably, "good."

以及更好的說法：「很好。」

So, purely random changes aren't novelty.

純粹隨機的改變並不是新穎。

OK, Heraclitus did say a man can't step in the same river twice,

赫拉克利特確實說過， 一個人不可能涉入同一條河兩次，

because it's not the same river, he's not the same man.

因為那不是同一條河， 他也不是同一個人。

But if the river is changing randomly,

但，如果這條河是隨機在改變，

it really is the same river.

它其實算是同一條河。

In contrast,

相對的，

if an idea in a mind spreads to other minds,

如果一個人腦中的想法 能散播到其他人的腦中，

and changes lives for generations,

並改變數世代的生活，

that is novelty.

那就是新穎。

Human life without novelty

沒有新穎的人生，

is life without creativity, without progress.

就是沒有創意、沒有進步的人生。

It's a static society, a zero-sum game.

那是個靜態的社會，零和的比賽。

That was the living hell in which Qohelet lived.

那就是傳道者所生活的活地獄。

Like everyone, until a few centuries ago.

大家都是如此，直到幾世紀前。

It was hell, because for humans,

那是地獄，因為對人類來說，

suffering is intimately related to staticity.

苦難和靜態有著密切的關係。

Because staticity isn't just frustrating.

因為靜態並不只是挫折。

All sources of suffering --

苦難的所有來源——

famine, pandemics, incoming asteroids,

饑荒、流行病、 即將撞上來的小行星，

and things like war and slavery,

還有戰爭及奴役制等等，

hurt people only until we have created the knowledge to prevent them.

都會傷害人，直到我們創造出 能預防這些事的知識。

There's a story in Somerset Maugham's novel "Of Human Bondage"

薩默塞特 · 毛姆的小說 《人性枷鎖》中有個故事，

about an ancient sage

講述的是一位古老的賢人

who summarizes the entire history of mankind as,

把人類的整個歷史彙整成：

"He was born,

「他出生，受苦，死了。」

he suffered and he died."

And it goes on:

接著繼續說：

"Life was insignificant and death without consequence."

「生命無足輕重，死亡也無關緊要。」

And indeed, the overwhelming majority of humans who have ever lived

的確，絕大多數曾經活過的人

had lives of suffering and grueling labor,

過著艱苦辛勞的生活，

before dying young and in agony.

年紀輕輕便痛苦地死去。

And yes, in most generations

而且大多數世代

nothing had any novel consequence for subsequent generations.

對子孫後代沒任何新的結果。

Nevertheless, when ancient people tried to explain their condition,

然而，

當古人試圖解釋他們的狀況時，

they typically did so in grandiose cosmic terms.

通常會用宏偉的宇宙用語來解釋。

Which was the right thing to do, as it turns out.

結果發現，這樣做是對的，

Even though their actual explanations, their myths,

即便他們真正的解釋、神話

were largely false.

大多是虛構的。

Some tried to explain

有些人試圖解釋

the grimness and monotony of their world

他們生活的世界 何以如此無情、單調，

in terms of an endless cosmic war between good and evil,

會用正邪間永無止盡的戰爭來解釋，

in which humans were the battleground.

人類是這場戰爭的戰場。

Which neatly explained why their own experience was full of suffering,

這個說法很完美地解釋了 為什麼人類的經歷中滿是痛苦，

and why progress never happened.

以及為什麼始終沒有進步。

But it wasn't true.

但，這並非真的。

Amazingly enough,

很驚人的是，

all their conflict and suffering

他們所有的衝突和苦難

were just due to the way they processed ideas.

僅由於他們處理想法的方式。

Being satisfied with dogma, and just-so stories,

他們滿足於教條 和解釋事物起源的故事，

rather than criticizing them

不去論斷，

and trying to guess better explanations of the world and of their own condition.

不試圖針對世界和自身的狀況

揣摩更好的解釋。

Twentieth-century physics did create better explanations,

二十世紀的物理 的確做出更好的解釋，

but still in terms of a cosmic war.

但仍然用宇宙戰爭來解釋。

This time, the combatants were order and chaos, or entropy.

這次參戰者是秩序和混亂，或稱熵。

That story does allow for hope for the future.

那個故事的確容許對未來抱有希望，

But in another way,

卻在另一種意義上 甚至比古老的神話還要乏味，

it's even bleaker than the ancient myths,

because the villain, entropy,

因為，反派（即熵）

is preordained to have the final victory,

已經註定會得到最後的勝利，

when the inexorable laws of thermodynamics shut down all novelty

那時，無法改變的熱電學定律

會用所謂宇宙熱寂， 把所有的新穎性都除去。

with the so-called heat death of the universe.

Currently, there's a story of a local battle in that war,

目前，有一個故事，講的是 那場戰爭的一場地方性戰役，

between sustainability, which is order,

一方是永續性，也就是秩序，

and wastefulness, which is chaos --

另一方是浪費，也就是混亂——

that's the contemporary take on good and evil,

那就是正、邪兩方的現代版，

often with the added twist that humans are the evil,

通常還會加上轉折： 人類是邪惡的，

so we shouldn't even try to win.

所以我們不應該試圖打贏。

And recently,

最近，出現了關於 另一場宇宙戰爭的傳說，

there have been tales of another cosmic war,

between gravity, which collapses the universe,

一方是引力，可以讓宇宙垮掉，

and dark energy, which finally shreds it.

另一方是暗能量，最終能撕碎宇宙。

So this time,

這次，

whichever of those cosmic forces wins,

不論是哪一股宇宙力量勝出，

we lose.

我們都是輸家。

All those pessimistic accounts of the human condition

這些關於人類狀況的悲觀說明

contain some truth,

有部分是真的。

but as prophecies,

但若要把它們當作預言，

they're all misleading, and all for the same reason.

會造成誤導，原因都一樣：

None of them portrays humans as what we really are.

未真實地描繪人類。

As Jacob Bronowski said,

雅各布 · 朗諾夫斯基說過：

"Man is not a figure in the landscape --

「人並不是地景中的一個形體，

he is the shaper of the landscape."

人是地景的形塑者。」

In other words,

換言之，

humans are not playthings of cosmic forces,

人類並不是宇宙力量的玩物，

we are users of cosmic forces.

我們是宇宙力量的使用者。

I'll say more about that in a moment,

我等下會再多談一些，

but first, what sorts of thing create novelty?

但首先，什麼樣的東西會創新？

Well, the beginning of the universe surely did.

嗯，宇宙的開端肯定是一例。

The big bang, nearly 14 billion years ago,

大爆炸發生在近一百四十億年前，

created space, time and energy,

它創造出了空間、時間、 能量，一切實體。

everything physical.

And then, immediately,

接著，馬上出現

what I call the first era of novelty,

我所謂「新穎的第一個時代」，

with the first atom, the first star,

這時出現了第一個原子、 第一個星星、

the first black hole,

第一個黑洞、

the first galaxy.

第一個銀河。

But then, at some point,

但接著在某個時點，

novelty vanished from the universe.

新穎性從宇宙中消失了。

Perhaps from as early as 12 or 13 billion years ago,

可能早從一百二十、 一百三十億年前開始，

right up to the present day,

一直到現今，

there's never been any new kind of astronomical object.

再也沒有出現過任何新型的天體。

There's only been what I call the great monotony.

這段時間一直都只有 我所謂的大單調。

So, Qohelet was accidentally even more right

因此無意間，傳道者所言，

對太陽以外的宇宙

about the universe beyond the Sun

比在太陽下的更為正確。

than he was about under the Sun.

So long as the great monotony lasts,

只要大單調還持續下去，

what has been out there

不論外面有什麼，

really is what will be.

將來也不會改變。

And there is nothing out there

外頭沒有什麼真正能夠讓人覺得

of which it can truly be said, "Look, this is new."

「看哪，這是新的」。

Nevertheless,

不論如何，

at some point during the great monotony,

在大單調的某個時點，

there was an event -- inconsequential at the time,

發生了一個事件—— 在當時無足輕重，

and even billions of years later,

就連數十億年之後，

it had affected nothing beyond its home planet --

它的影響範圍也只限於 它的家鄉星球之內——

yet eventually, it could cause cosmically momentous novelty.

但，最終，

它可以造成在宇宙法則上 極重要的新穎性。

That event was the origin of life:

那個事件就是生命的起源：

creating the first genetic knowledge,

創造出最早的基因知識，

coding for biological adaptations,

為了生物適應性做編碼，

coding for novelty.

為了新穎性做編碼。

On Earth, it utterly transformed the surface.

在地球上，它徹底轉變了地表。

Genes in the DNA of single-celled organisms

單細胞有機體的 DNA 中的基因

put oxygen in the air,

讓空氣中出現了氧，

extracted CO2,

取出了二氧化碳，

put chalk and iron ore into the ground,

讓地下出現了白堊與鐵，

hardly a cubic inch of the surface to some depth has remained unaffected

幾乎沒有一立方英寸的表面，

沒有受到那些基因 某種程度的影響。

by those genes.

The Earth became, if not a novel place on the cosmic scale,

從整個宇宙來看，

地球若沒有變成新穎的地方，

certainly a weird one.

至少也一定是個奇怪的地方。

Just as an example, beyond Earth,

舉個例，在地球之外，

only a few hundred different chemical substances have been detected.

只偵測到幾百種不同的化學物質。

Presumably, there are some more in lifeless locations,

據推測，在沒有生命的地方， 還會有一些化學物質，

but on Earth,

但在地球上，

evolution created billions of different chemicals.

演化創造出了數十億種 不同的化學物質。

And then the first plants, animals,

接著，創造出最早的植物、動物，

and then, in some ancestor species of ours,

接著，在我們的一些祖先物種中，

explanatory knowledge.

出現了解釋性的知識。

For the first time in the universe, for all we know.

就我們所知，乃宇宙前所未見。

Explanatory knowledge is the defining adaptation of our species.

解釋性知識是我們這個物種 非常關鍵的適應變化。

It differs from the nonexplanatory knowledge

它和非解釋性知識不同，

in DNA, for instance,

比如，在 DNA 中，

by being universal.

它是普遍的。

That is to say, whatever can be understood,

也就是說，只要是 可以被理解的事物，

can be understood through explanatory knowledge.

就可以透過解釋性知識來理解。

And more, any physical process

此外，任何物理過程

can be controlled by such knowledge,

都可以被這種知識給控制，

limited only by the laws of physics.

只受限於物理定律。

And so, explanatory knowledge, too,

所以，同樣的，解釋性知識

has begun to transform the Earth's surface.

也開始轉變地球的表面。

And soon, the Earth will become the only known object in the universe

地球很快會是我們已知宇宙中

that turns aside incoming asteroids instead of attracting them.

唯一能讓迎面而來的小行星偏離，

而不吸引它們。

Qohelet was understandably misled

傳道者被誤導是可以理解的，

by the painful slowness of progress in his day.

因為當時的緩慢進展慢得令人痛苦，

Novelty in human life was still too rare, too gradual,

新穎在人類的生活中 仍太稀有、太漸進，

to be noticed in one generation.

無法在一個世代中就注意到。

And in the biosphere,

在生物圈中，

the evolution of novel species was even slower.

新穎物種的演化還更緩慢。

But both things were happening.

但兩者都在發生。

Now, why is there a great monotony in the universe at large,

為什麼在總體宇宙中會有大單調？

and what makes our planet buck that trend?

是什麼讓我們地球逆轉了這趨勢？

Well, the universe at large is relatively simple.

相對之下，整體宇宙比較簡單。

Stars are so simple

星星簡單到

that we can predict their behavior billions of years into the future,

我們能夠預測它們在 未來數十億年的行為，

and retrodict how they formed billions of years ago.

並回推出數十億年前 它們如何形成的。

So why is the universe simple?

為什麼宇宙如此簡單？

Basically, it's because big, massive, powerful things

基本上，那是因為

巨型、強大的東西

strongly affect lesser things, and not vice versa.

對於比較小、比較弱的東西 有強力的影響，反之卻不然。

I call that the hierarchy rule.

我把它稱為階層規則。

For example, when a comet hits the Sun,

比如，當慧星撞上太陽，

the Sun carries on just as before,

太陽會跟以往一樣繼續下去，

but the comet is vaporized.

慧星卻會被蒸發。

For the same reason,

同理，

big things are not much affected by small parts of themselves,

大型的東西不太會 被其自身的小部分給影響，

i.e., by details.

即，不會被細節影響。

Which means that their overall behavior

這就表示，它們的整體行為很簡單。

is simple.

And since nothing very new can happen to things

既然一直維持簡單的東西

that remain simple,

不可能會發生什麼很新的狀況，

the hierarchy rule, by causing large-scale simplicity,

階層規則會造成大規模的簡單性，

has caused the great monotony.

因而造成大單調。

But, the saving grace is

但，還是有好消息，

the hierarchy rule is not a law of nature.

階層規則並不是自然法則。

It just happens to have held so far in the universe,

只是剛好目前為止 在宇宙中都成立，

except here.

除了這裡。

In our biosphere, molecule-sized objects, genes,

在我們的生物圈， 分子大小的物體：基因，

control vastly disproportionate resources.

控制了非常不成比例的資源。

The first genes for photosynthesis,

最早的光合作用基因

by causing their own proliferation,

藉由造成它們自己的擴散，

and then transforming the surface of the planet,

接著轉變這個星球的表面，

have violated or reversed the hierarchy rule

就違反或者逆轉了階層規則，

by the mind-blowing factor of 10 to the power 40.

影響力大得驚人， 高達十的四十次方。

Explanatory knowledge is potentially far more powerful

因為解釋性知識的普遍性，

它可能更強大許多，

because of universality,

and more rapidly created.

且創造出來的速度更快。

When human knowledge has achieved a factor 10 to the 40,

當人類知識達到十的四十次方時，

it will pretty much control the entire galaxy,

很可能就會掌控整個銀河系，

and will be looking beyond.

且會再向外探尋。

So humans,

所以，人類，

and any other explanation creators who may exist out there,

以及外頭可能還存在的 任何其他解釋創造者，

are the ultimate agents of novelty for the universe.

都是宇宙中新穎性的終極媒介。

We are the reason and the means

我們是理由也是手段，

by which novelty and creativity, knowledge, progress,

讓新穎性和創意、知識、進步

can have objective, large-scale physical effects.

能夠有客觀、大規模的實體影響。

From the human perspective,

從人類的觀點來看，

the only alternative to that living hell of static societies

靜態停滯社會的活地獄 只有一個替代方案，

is continual creation of new ideas,

那就是持續創造新點子、

behaviors, new kinds of objects.

行為、新式的物體。

This robot will soon be obsolete,

因為有新的解釋性知識、進步，

because of new explanatory knowledge, progress.

這個機器人很快就會被淘汰。

But from the cosmic perspective,

但，從宇宙的觀點來看，

explanatory knowledge is the nemesis of the hierarchy rule.

解釋性知識是階層規則剋星。

It's the destroyer of the great monotony.

它能夠摧毀大單調。

So it's the creator of the next cosmological era,

所以，它是下一個宇宙紀元

「人類世」的創造者。

the Anthropocene.

If one can speak of a cosmic war,

如果說宇宙中有戰爭，

it's not the one portrayed in those pessimistic stories.

並不是悲觀故事中所描繪那種戰爭，

It's a war between monotony and novelty,

而是單調和新穎之間的戰爭，

between stasis and creativity.

靜態停滯和創意之間的戰爭。

And in this war,

在這場戰爭中，

our side is not destined to lose.

我們這一方未必註定會輸。

If we choose to apply our unique capacity to create explanatory knowledge,

如果我們選擇用獨特的能力 創造解釋性知識，

we could win.

我們就有可能贏。

Thanks.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）