Go Ahead, Dream About the Future | Charlie Jane Anders | TED

Prevodilac: Kristina Radosavljević Lektor: Ivana Krivokuća

Every science fiction writer

Svaki pisac naučne fantastike

has a story about a time when the future arrived too soon.

ima priču o vremenu u kome je budućnost stigla prerano.

I have a lot of those stories.

Ja imam puno takvih priča.

Like, OK, for example:

Kao, evo primera:

years ago, I was writing a story where the government

pre nekoliko godina, pisala sam priču u kojoj vlada

starts using drones to kill people.

počinje da koristi dronove za ubijanje ljudi.

I thought that this was a really intense, futuristic idea,

Mislila sam da je to baš neobična, futuristička ideja,

but by the time the story was published,

ali u vreme kada je priča objavljena,

the government was already using drones to kill people.

vlada je već koristila dronove za ubijanje ljudi.

Our world is changing so fast,

Naš svet se menja tako brzo,

and there's a kind of accelerating feedback loop

postoji neka vrsta ubrzavajuće povratne sprege

where technological change and social change feed on each other.

gde tehnološke i društvene promene hrane jedna drugu.

When I was a kid in the 1980s,

Kada sam 1980-ih bila dete,

we knew what the future was going to look like.

znali smo kako će budućnost izgledati.

It was going to be some version of "Judge Dredd" or "Blade Runner."

Trebalo je da bude neka verzija „Sudije Dreda” ili „Istrebljivača”.

It was going to be neon megacities and flying vehicles.

Trebalo je da obuhvata neonske megagradove i leteća vozila.

But now, nobody knows what the world is going to look like

Ali sada niko ne zna kako će svet izgledati

even in just a couple years,

čak ni za par godina,

and there are so many scary apparitions lurking on the horizon.

a ima toliko mnogo zastrašujućih prikaza koji vrebaju iz našeg okruženja.

From climate catastrophe to authoritarianism,

Od klimatske katastrofe do autoritarizma,

everybody is obsessed with apocalypses,

svi su opsednuti apokalipsama,

even though the world ends all the time, and we keep going.

iako se smak sveta stalno dešava, a mi i dalje opstajemo.

Don't be afraid to think about the future, to dream about the future,

Ne bojte se da razmišljate o budućnosti, da sanjate o budućnosti,

to write about the future.

i da pišete o budućnosti.

I've found it really liberating and fun to do that.

Meni je to stvarno oslobađajuće i zabavno.

It's a way of vaccinating yourself

To je način da se vakcinišete

against the worst possible case of future shock.

protiv najgoreg mogućeg budućeg šokantnog scenarija.

It's also a source of empowerment,

To je takođe i izvor snage,

because you cannot prepare for something that you haven't already visualized.

jer ne možete da budete pripremljeni na nešto što niste vizualizovali.

But there's something that you need to know.

Ali postoji nešto što morate znati.

You don't predict the future;

Vi ne predviđate budućnost,

you imagine the future.

vi je zamišljate.

So as a science fiction writer

Dakle, kao pisac naučne fantastike,

whose stories often take place years or even centuries from now,

u čijim pričama se radnje često dešavaju godinama ili čak vekovima u budućnosti,

I've found that people are really hungry for visions of the future

shvatila sam da su ljudi željni vizija budućnosti

that are both colorful and lived in,

koje su istovremeno i raznobojne i životne,

but I found that research on its own is not enough to get me there.

ali sam shvatila da istraživanje samo po sebi nije dovoljno.

Instead, I use a mixture of active dreaming

Umesto toga, koristim mešavinu aktivnog sanjarenja,

and awareness of cutting-edge trends in science and technology

svesnosti o savremenim naučnim i tehnološkim trendovima,

and also insight into human history.

kao i uvida u ljudsku istoriju.

I think a lot about what I know of human nature

Razmišljam puno o tome koliko poznajem ljudsku prirodu

and the way that people have responded in the past to huge changes

i način na koji su ljudi reagovali u prošlosti na velike promene,

and upheavals and transformations.

preokrete i transformacije.

And I pair that with an attention to detail,

Sve to spajam sa pažnjom usmerenom na detalje,

because the details are where we live.

jer su detalji mesto gde živimo.

We tell the story of our world through the tools we create

Pričamo priču našeg sveta kroz alate koje stvaramo

and the spaces that we live in.

i u prostoru u kome živimo.

And at this point, it's helpful to know a couple of terms

U ovom trenutku, poželjno je znati par termina

that science fiction writers use all of the time:

koje pisci naučne fantastike stalno koriste:

"future history" and "second-order effects."

„istorija budućnosti” i „sekundarni efekat”.

Now, future history is basically just what it sounds like.

Istorija budućnosti je u suštini ono što vam i zvuči.

It is a chronology of things that haven't happened yet,

To je hronologija događaja koji se još nisu desili,

like Robert A. Heinlein's famous story cycle,

kao čuveni ciklus priča Roberta A. Hajnlajna,

koji je izradio detaljnu mapu predstojećih događaja

which came with a detailed chart of upcoming events

going up into the year 2100.

koji sežu do 2100. godine.

Or, for my most recent novel,

Ili recimo, za moj najnoviji roman,

I came up with a really complicated time line

stvorila sam veoma komplikovanu vremensku liniju

that goes all the way to the 33rd century

koja seže čak do 33. veka

and ends with people living on another planet.

i završava se sa ljudima koji žive na drugoj planeti.

Meanwhile, a second-order effect is basically the kind of thing

Sa druge strane, sekundarni efekat je u suštini

ono što se desi nakon posledica

that happens after the consequences of a new technology or a huge change.

nove tehnologije ili velike promene.

There's a saying often attributed to writer and editor Frederik Pohl

Postoji izreka koja se često pripisuje piscu i uredniku Fredriku Polu,

that "A good science fiction story

da „Dobra naučnofantastična priča

should predict not just the invention of the automobile,

treba da predvidi ne samo pronalazak automobila,

but also the traffic jam."

već i saobraćajne gužve.”

And speaking of traffic jams,

A kad smo već kod saobraćajnih gužvi,

I spent a lot of time trying to picture the city of the future.

provela sam dosta vremena pokušavajući za opišem grad budućnosti.

What's it like? What's it made of?

Kako izgleda? Od čega je napravljen?

Who's it for?

Za koga je napravljen?

I try to picture a green city with vertical farms

Pokušala sam da opišem zeleni grad sa vertikalnim farmama,

and structures that are partially grown rather than built

sa strukturama koje se delom uzgajaju umesto da se grade,

and walkways instead of streets,

i prolazima umesto ulica,

because nobody gets around by car anymore --

zato što niko više ne vozi kola -

a city that lives and breathes.

grad koji živi i diše.

And, you know, I kind of start by daydreaming the wildest stuff

I znate šta, u neku ruku sam počela da maštam o najluđim stvarima

that I can possibly come up with,

koje sam mogla da smislim,

and then I go back into research mode,

a onda bih se vratila u fazu istraživanja,

and I try to make it as plausible as I can

i pokušala da sve to učinim što prihvatljivijim,

by looking at a mixture of urban futurism, design porn

kombinujući urbani futurizam, interesantan dizajn

and technological speculation.

i tehnološke procene.

And then I go back, and I try to imagine what it would actually be like

Onda se vratim, i pokušam da zamislim kako bi to stvarno izgledalo

to be inside that city.

biti unutar tog grada.

So my process kind of begins and ends with imagination,

Moj proces, u neku ruku, počinje i završava se maštom,

and it's like my imagination is two pieces of bread

kao da moja mašta predstavlja dva parčeta hleba

in a research sandwich.

u istraživačkom sendviču.

So as a storyteller, first and foremost,

Dakle, kao onaj ko priča priču, prvo i osnovno,

I try to live in the world through the eyes of my characters

pokušavam da živim taj svet kroz oči mojih likova

and try to see how they navigate their own personal challenges

i pokušavam da vidim kako oni premošćuju lične izazove

in the context of the space that I've created.

u okruženju koje sam stvorila.

What do they smell? What do they touch?

Šta mogu da omirišu? Šta mogu da dodirnu?

What's it like to fall in love inside a smart city?

Kako je to zaljubiti se unutar pametnog grada?

What do you see when you look out your window,

Šta vidite kada pogledate kroz prozor,

and does it depend on how the window's software interacts with your mood?

i da li to zavisi od uticaja prozorskog softvera na vaše raspoloženje?

And finally, I ask myself how a future brilliant city

I na kraju, pitam se, kako bi budući sjajni grad

would ensure that nobody is homeless and nobody slips through the cracks.

mogao osigurati da niko ne bude beskućnik i da niko ne bude zanemaren.

And here's where future history comes in handy,

Ovde buduća istorija uskače u pomoć,

because cities don't just spring up overnight like weeds.

zato što gradovi ne niču preko noći kao trava.

They arise and transform.

Oni se podižu i menjaju.

They bear the scars and ornaments of wars, migrations,

Nose ožiljke i ukrase ratova, migracija,

economic booms, cultural awakenings.

ekonomskih ekspanzija, kulturoloških buđenja.

A future city should have monuments, yeah,

Budući grad bi trebalo da ima spomenike, da,

but it should also have layers of past architecture,

ali bi takođe trebalo da ima i slojeve prošle arhitekture,

repurposed buildings

zgrada koje su promenile namenu

and all of the signs of how we got to this place.

i sve znakove kako smo stigli dovde.

And then there's second-order effects,

A onda dolazimo do sekundarnih efekata,

like how do things go wrong -- or right --

kao na primer, kako su stvari krenule po zlu - ili na dobro -

in a way that nobody ever anticipated?

na način na koji niko nije očekivao?

Like, if the walls of your apartment are made out of a kind of fungus

Na primer, ako su zidovi vašeg stana napravljeni od neke vrste gljiva,

that can regrow itself to repair any damage,

koje mogu da se regenerišu kako bi popravile bilo koje oštećenje,

what if people start eating the walls?

šta ako su ljudi počeli jesti te zidove?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Speaking of eating:

Kad smo već kod jela:

What kind of sewer system does the city of the future have?

kakav kanalizacioni sistem ima taj grad budućnosti?

It's a trick question. There are no sewers.

To je trik pitanje. Nema kanalizacije.

There's something incredibly bizarre about the current system we have

Postoji nešto neverovatno bizarno kod trenutnog sistema koji imamo

in the United States,

u Sjedinjenim Državama,

where your waste gets flushed into a tunnel

gde se vaš otpad ispira kroz tunel

to be mixed with rainwater and often dumped into the ocean.

da bi se pomešao sa kišnicom i veoma često bio bačen u okean.

Not to mention toilet paper.

Da ne spominjem toalet papir.

A bunch of techies, led by Bill Gates,

Grupica tehnologa koju predvodi Bil Gejts

are trying to reinvent the toilet right now,

pokušava da preosmisli toalet,

and it's possible that the toilet of the future

i postoji mogućnost da će toalet budućnosti

could appear incredibly strange to someone living today.

izgledati prilično čudno nekome ko živi u sadašnjosti.

So how does the history of the future, all of that trial and error,

Dakle, kako istorija budućnosti, svi pokušaji i greške,

lead to a better way to go to the bathroom?

vode ka boljem načinu upotrebe kupatila?

There are companies right now

Trenutno postoje kompanije

who are experimenting with a kind of cleaning wand

koje eksperimentišu sa nekom vrstom magičnog štapića za čišćenje

that can substitute for toilet paper,

koji može zameniti toalet papir,

using compressed air or sanitizing sprays to clean you off.

koristeći kompresovan vazduh ili sprej za dezinfekciju koji bi vas obrisao.

But what if those things looked more like flowers than technology?

Ali šta ako ove stvari više liče na cveće nego na tehnologiju?

What if your toilet could analyze your waste

Šta ako bi toalet mogao da analizira vaš otpad

and let you know if your microbiome might need a little tune-up?

i obaveštava vas ako vaš mikrobiom treba malu popravku?

What if today's experiments with turning human waste into fuel

Šta ako bi današnji eksperiment sa pretvaranjem ljudskog otpada u gorivo

leads to a smart battery that could help power your home?

doveo do pametne baterije koja bi mogla da napaja vaš dom?

But back to the city of the future.

Vratimo se gradu iz budućnosti.

How do people navigate the space?

Kako se ljudi kreću kroz prostor?

If there's no streets, how do people even make sense of the geography?

Ako nema ulica, kako se ljudi uopšte snalaze sa geografijom?

I like to think of a place where there are spaces

Ja volim da zamišljam to kao mesto u kome postoje prostori

that are partially only in virtual reality

koji su delom samo u virtualnoj realnosti

that maybe you need special hardware to even discover.

za koje vam je možda potreban poseban hardver da biste ih otkrili.

Like for one story, I came up with a thing called "the cloudscape interface,"

Kao što sam za jednu priču smislila nešto što se zvalo „interfejs oblaka”,

which I described as a chrome spider that plugs into your head

koje je izgledalo kao hromirani pauk koji se priključi u vašu glavu

using temporal nodes.

koristeći temporalne čvorove.

No, that's not a picture of it, but it's a fun picture I took in a bar.

To nije slika toga, nego zanimljiva slika koju sam napravila u baru.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And I got really carried away imagining the bars, restaurants, cafés

Stvarno se zanesem kada zamišljam barove, restorane, kafiće

that you could only find your way inside

čiji ulaz možete da nađete

if you had the correct augmented reality hardware.

samo ako imate odgovarajući hardver proširene stvarnosti.

But again, second-order effects:

Ali opet, sekundarni efekti:

in a world shaped by augmented reality,

u svetu oblikovanom proširenom stvarnošću,

what kind of new communities will we have,

kakvu vrstu novih zajednica ćemo imati,

what kind of new crimes that we haven't even thought of yet?

kakvu vrstu novog kriminala, koji još nismo smislili?

OK, like, let's say that you and I are standing next to each other,

Okej, kao, recimo da vi i ja stojimo jedno pored drugog,

and you think that we're in a noisy sports bar,

i vi mislite da smo u nekom bučnom sportskom baru,

and I think we're in a highbrow salon

a ja mislim da smo u otmenom salonu

with a string quartet talking about Baudrillard.

sa gudačkim kvartetom i pričamo o Bodrijaru.

I can't possibly imagine what might go wrong in that scenario.

Ne mogu ni da zamislim šta bi moglo krenuti po zlu u tom scenariju.

Like, it's just -- I'm sure it'll be fine.

Kao, samo - ma, sigurno će biti u redu.

And then there's social media.

A onda dolaze društvene mreže.

I can imagine some pretty frickin' dystopian scenarios

Tu mogu zamisliti neke baš uznemirujuće distopijske scenarije

where things like internet quizzes,

gde se stvari poput internet kvizova,

dating apps, horoscopes, bots,

aplikacija za sastanke, horoskopa, robota,

all combine to drag you down deeper and deeper rabbit holes

sve ujedinjuju kako bi vas oterale što dublje u zečije rupe,

into bad relationships and worse politics.

u loše veze i još goru politiku.

But then I think about the conversations that I've had

Onda pomislim na razgovore koje sam vodila

with people who work on AI,

sa ljudima koji rade na veštačkoj inteligenciji,

and what I always hear from them is that the smarter AI gets,

i ono što stalno slušam od njih jeste da, što je pametnija veštačka inteligencija,

the better it is at making connections.

bolje uspostavlja veze.

So maybe the social media of the future will be better.

Pa možda će društvene mreže budućnosti biti bolje.

Maybe it'll help us to form healthier, less destructive relationships.

Možda će nam pomoći da stvorimo zdravije i manje destruktivne odnose.

Maybe we'll have devices that enable togetherness and serendipity.

Možda ćemo imati naprave koje će omogućiti zajedništvo i blagostanje.

I really hope so.

Iskreno se nadam.

And, you know, I like to think that if strong AI ever really exists,

I, znate, volim da mislim da, ako jaka veštačka inteligencija stvarno nastane,

they'll probably enjoy our weird relationship drama

verovatno će uživati u drami naših uvrnutih odnosa

the same way that you and I love to obsess about the "Real Housewives of Wherever."

na isti način na koji smo mi opsednuti „Stvarnim domaćicama iz odakle god”.

And finally, there's medicine.

I na kraju, lekovi.

I think a lot about how developments in genetic medicine

Dosta razmišljam kako bi razvoj genetske medicine

could improve outcomes for people with cancer or dementia,

mogao poboljšati ishod za ljude sa rakom ili demencijom,

and maybe one day, your hundredth birthday will be just another milestone

i možda jednog dana, vaš stoti rođendan bude samo jedan u nizu vaših prekretnica

on the way to another two or three decades of healthy, active life.

na putu ka novim dvema ili trima decenijama zdravog i aktivnog života.

Maybe the toilet of the future that I mentioned

Možda će toaleti koje sam pominjala

will improve health outcomes for a lot of people,

poboljšati zdravstvene ishode za mnoge ljude,

including people in parts of the world

uključujući i one iz delova sveta

where they don't have these complicated sewer systems that I mentioned.

gde ne postoje oni komplikovani sistemi kanalizacije koje sam pominjala.

But also, as a transgender person,

Takođe, kao transrodna osoba,

I like to think: What if we make advances in understanding the endocrine system

volim da razmišljam: šta ako ostvarimo napredak u razumevanju endokrinog sistema

that improve the options for trans people,

koji će poboljšati opcije za transrodne osobe,

the same way that hormones and surgeries expanded the options

na isti način na koji su hormoni i operacije proširili opcije

for the previous generation?

prethodnoj generaciji?

So finally: basically, I'm here to tell you,

Na kraju, u suštini, ovde sam da vam kažem

people talk about the future

da ljudi pričaju o budućnosti

as though it's either going to be a technological wonderland

ili kao o nekoj tehnološkoj zemlji čuda

or some kind of apocalyptic poop barbecue.

ili kao o nekoj vrsti apokaliptičnog ukakanog roštilja.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But the truth is, it's not going to be either of those things.

Istina je da neće biti ni jedno ni drugo.

It's going to be in the middle. It's going to be both. It's going to be everything.

Biće nešto između. Biće i jedno i drugo. Biće sve.

Jednu stvar pouzdano znamo,

The one thing we do know

a to je da će budućnost biti neverovatno uvrnuta.

is that the future is going to be incredibly weird.

Pomislite koliko bi uvrnuto početak 21. veka izgledao

Just think about how weird the early 21st century would appear

to someone from the early 20th.

nekom sa početka 20. veka.

And, you know, there's a kind of logical fallacy that we all have

I, znate, postoji neka vrsta logičke obmane koju svi imamo,

where we expect the future to be an extension of the present.

gde svi očekujemo da budućnost bude produžetak sadašnjosti.

Like, people in the 1980s

Kao što su ljudi u '80-im

thought that the Soviet Union would still be around today.

mislili da će se Sovjetski Savez postojati i dan-danas.

But the future is going to be much weirder than we could possibly dream of.

Ali budućnost će biti mnogo uvrnutija nego što smo ikada mogli i da sanjamo.

But we can try.

Ali možemo pokušati.

And I know that there are going to be scary, scary things,

Znam da će biti jako strašnih stvari,

but there's also going to be wonders and saving graces.

ali biće i čuda i predivnih stvari.

And the first step to finding your way forward

A prvi korak u pronalaženju svog puta ka budućnosti

is to let your imagination run free.

jeste da se prepustite svojoj mašti na volju.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)