Go Ahead, Dream About the Future | Charlie Jane Anders | TED

Prevoditelj: Valentina Kovac Recezent: Sanda L

Every science fiction writer

Svaki pisac znanstvene fantastike

has a story about a time when the future arrived too soon.

ima priču o vremenu kad je budućnost uranila.

I have a lot of those stories.

Ja imam puno takvih priča.

Like, OK, for example:

Kao na primjer:

years ago, I was writing a story where the government

prije par godina radila sam na priči u kojoj vlada

starts using drones to kill people.

počne koristiti dronove za ubijanje ljude.

I thought that this was a really intense, futuristic idea,

Mislila sam da je to moćna futuristička ideja.

but by the time the story was published,

No dok smo izdali priču,

the government was already using drones to kill people.

vlada je već koristila dronove za ubijanje ljudi.

Our world is changing so fast,

Naš se svijet brzo mijenja

and there's a kind of accelerating feedback loop

i postoji neka vrsta ubrzane povratne petlje

where technological change and social change feed on each other.

u kojoj se tehnološke i društvene promjene nadopunjuju.

When I was a kid in the 1980s,

Kad smo bili djeca u 80-ima,

we knew what the future was going to look like.

svi smo znali kako će budućnost izgledati.

It was going to be some version of "Judge Dredd" or "Blade Runner."

Sličit će na Sudca Dredda ili Istrebljivača.

It was going to be neon megacities and flying vehicles.

Bit će neonski megagradovi i leteća vozila.

But now, nobody knows what the world is going to look like

No danas nitko ne zna kako će budućnost izgledati,

even in just a couple years,

čak ni što će biti za par godina.

and there are so many scary apparitions lurking on the horizon.

A i puno je strašnih ukazanja na pomolu.

From climate catastrophe to authoritarianism,

Od klimatskih katastrofa do autoritarnosti.

everybody is obsessed with apocalypses,

Svi su opsjednuti apokalipsom.

even though the world ends all the time, and we keep going.

Iako svijet cijelo vrijeme nestaje i mi nastavljamo dalje sa životom.

Don't be afraid to think about the future, to dream about the future,

Ne bojte se razmišljati o budućnosti, maštati o njoj,

to write about the future.

pisati o njoj.

I've found it really liberating and fun to do that.

Za mene je to veoma oslobađajuće i zabavno.

It's a way of vaccinating yourself

To je kao da se cijepite

against the worst possible case of future shock.

protiv najgoreg mogućeg slučaja šoka budućnosti.

It's also a source of empowerment,

Također je i izvor osnaživanja.

because you cannot prepare for something that you haven't already visualized.

Ne možete biti spremni na nešto što si niste već predočili.

But there's something that you need to know.

No nešto morate znati.

You don't predict the future;

Vi ne predviđate budućnost.

you imagine the future.

Vi zamišljate budućnost.

So as a science fiction writer

Kao spisateljica znanstvene fantastike

whose stories often take place years or even centuries from now,

čije se priče odvijaju godinama, čak stoljećima unaprijed,

I've found that people are really hungry for visions of the future

otkrila sam da ljudi žeđaju za vizijama o budućnosti

that are both colorful and lived in,

koje su istovremeno živahne i ugodne.

but I found that research on its own is not enough to get me there.

Ali isto sam otkrila da mi samo istraživanje nije dovoljno.

Instead, I use a mixture of active dreaming

Zato se koristim mješavinom aktivnog maštanja,

and awareness of cutting-edge trends in science and technology

praćenjem trendova u znanosti i tehnologiji

and also insight into human history.

i uvidom u povijest čovječanstva.

I think a lot about what I know of human nature

Preispitujem svoje znanje o ljudskoj prirodi

and the way that people have responded in the past to huge changes

i kako su ljudi u prošlosti reagirali na velike promjene,

and upheavals and transformations.

preokrete i transformacije.

And I pair that with an attention to detail,

To kombiniram s pažnjom na detalje.

because the details are where we live.

Jer detalji su ti u kojima živimo.

We tell the story of our world through the tools we create

Pričamo priču o svojem svijetu alatima koje stvorimo

and the spaces that we live in.

i prostorima u kojima živimo.

And at this point, it's helpful to know a couple of terms

Korisno je znati neke pojmove

that science fiction writers use all of the time:

koje pisci znanstvene fantastike stalno koriste:

"future history" and "second-order effects."

"buduća povijest" i "sekundarni učinci".

Now, future history is basically just what it sounds like.

Buduća povijest doslovno je to što i kaže.

It is a chronology of things that haven't happened yet,

Kronologija događaja koji se još nisu dogodili.

like Robert A. Heinlein's famous story cycle,

Slično ciklusu priča Roberta A. Heinleina

which came with a detailed chart of upcoming events

koji je osmislio detaljnu tablicu nadolazećih događaja

going up into the year 2100.

koji se protežu sve do 2100.

Or, for my most recent novel,

Za moju najnoviju priču

I came up with a really complicated time line

smislila sam kompliciranu radnju

that goes all the way to the 33rd century

koja se proteže do 33. stoljeća

and ends with people living on another planet.

i završava ljudskim naseljavanjem drugog planeta.

Meanwhile, a second-order effect is basically the kind of thing

Međutim, sekundarni učinak je zapravo

that happens after the consequences of a new technology or a huge change.

posljedica nove tehnologije ili velike promjene.

There's a saying often attributed to writer and editor Frederik Pohl

Postoji izreka koja se često pripisuje piscu Frederiku Pohlu

that "A good science fiction story

da "dobra znanstveno-fantastična priča

should predict not just the invention of the automobile,

ne bi samo trebala predvidjeti izumljivanje automobila

but also the traffic jam."

već i prometne gužve."

And speaking of traffic jams,

Kad smo već kod prometnih gužvi,

I spent a lot of time trying to picture the city of the future.

dosta sam vremena razmišljala o gradu budućnosti.

What's it like? What's it made of?

Kakav je? Od čega je sagrađen?

Who's it for?

Za koga je?

I try to picture a green city with vertical farms

Pokušavam zamisliti zeleni grad s okomitim farmama,

and structures that are partially grown rather than built

građevinama koje su dijelom uzgojene, a ne sagrađene

and walkways instead of streets,

i pločnicima umjesto ulica,

because nobody gets around by car anymore --

jer se nitko više ne vozi autom.

a city that lives and breathes.

Grad koji živi i diše.

And, you know, I kind of start by daydreaming the wildest stuff

I znate, počela bih maštati o najčudnijim stvarima

that I can possibly come up with,

koje bih mogla smisliti

and then I go back into research mode,

i onda bih počela istraživati

and I try to make it as plausible as I can

te pokušala sve nekako smisleno spojiti

by looking at a mixture of urban futurism, design porn

u mješavinu urbanog futurizma i famoznog dizajna

and technological speculation.

i tehnološkoga nagađanja.

And then I go back, and I try to imagine what it would actually be like

Zatim počnem zamišljati

kako bi bilo u samom gradu.

to be inside that city.

So my process kind of begins and ends with imagination,

Dakle, moj proces počinje i završava maštom.

and it's like my imagination is two pieces of bread

Moja mašta vam je poput dvije kriške kruha

in a research sandwich.

u istraživačkom sendviču.

So as a storyteller, first and foremost,

Kao pripovjedačica, prije svega,

I try to live in the world through the eyes of my characters

pokušavam gledati taj svijet očima mojih likova

and try to see how they navigate their own personal challenges

i pokušavam vidjeti kako će se oni nositi s osobnim izazovima

in the context of the space that I've created.

u kontekstu prostora koji sam stvorila.

What do they smell? What do they touch?

Što osjete? Što dodiruju?

What's it like to fall in love inside a smart city?

Kako je to zaljubiti se u pametnome gradu?

What do you see when you look out your window,

Što vidiš kad pogledaš kroz prozor?

and does it depend on how the window's software interacts with your mood?

Ovisi li pogled o interakciji programa s tvojim raspoloženjem?

And finally, I ask myself how a future brilliant city

Na kraju se pitam kako će briljantni grad budućnosti

would ensure that nobody is homeless and nobody slips through the cracks.

osigurati da svi imaju dom i da nitko ne ostane neprimijećen.

And here's where future history comes in handy,

I sad nam buduća povijest može biti od koristi

because cities don't just spring up overnight like weeds.

jer gradovi ne niču niotkud kao korov.

They arise and transform.

Oni se dižu i transformiraju.

They bear the scars and ornaments of wars, migrations,

Nose ožiljke i ornamente od ratova, migracija,

economic booms, cultural awakenings.

gospodarskog rasta, kulturnih buđenja.

A future city should have monuments, yeah,

Gradovi budućnosti trebaju imati spomenike

but it should also have layers of past architecture,

kao i slojeve prošle arhitekture,

repurposed buildings

prenamijenjene zgrade

and all of the signs of how we got to this place.

i sve znakove koji pokazuju kako smo ovdje došli.

And then there's second-order effects,

Zatim imamo sekundarne učinke,

like how do things go wrong -- or right --

kako stvari ispadnu loše -- ili dobre --

in a way that nobody ever anticipated?

na način kojem se nitko nije nadao?

Like, if the walls of your apartment are made out of a kind of fungus

Kao, ako su zidovi vašeg stana napravljeni od neke vrste gljiva

that can regrow itself to repair any damage,

koje se mogu regenerirati i tako popraviti štetu,

what if people start eating the walls?

što ako ljudi počnu jesti zidove?

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Speaking of eating:

Kad smo već kod jedenja,

What kind of sewer system does the city of the future have?

kakav je kanalizacijski sustav budućeg grada?

It's a trick question. There are no sewers.

To je trik pitanje. Nema kanalizacije.

There's something incredibly bizarre about the current system we have

Postoji nešto nevjerojatno bizarno vezano za sadašnji sustav

in the United States,

koji imamo u SAD-u.

where your waste gets flushed into a tunnel

Vaš otpad se spušta u tunel

to be mixed with rainwater and often dumped into the ocean.

gdje se miješa s kišnicom te se često baca u ocean.

Not to mention toilet paper.

Da ne spominjemo toaletni papir.

A bunch of techies, led by Bill Gates,

Hrpa stručnjaka predvođena Bill Gatesom

are trying to reinvent the toilet right now,

trenutno pokušavaju ponovno izmisliti zahod.

and it's possible that the toilet of the future

I moguće je da bi se zahod budućnosti

could appear incredibly strange to someone living today.

mogao doimati čudno današnjim ljudima.

So how does the history of the future, all of that trial and error,

I kako onda povijest budućnosti, sva ta testiranja i neuspjesi

lead to a better way to go to the bathroom?

vode boljem načinu odlaska u kupaonicu?

There are companies right now

Trenutno postoje tvrtke

who are experimenting with a kind of cleaning wand

koje eksprimentiraju vrstom mlaznice

that can substitute for toilet paper,

koja bi mogla zamijeniti toaletni papir

using compressed air or sanitizing sprays to clean you off.

koristeći potisnuti zrak ili dezinfekcijski sprej za čišćenje.

But what if those things looked more like flowers than technology?

Što ako one budu više sličile cvijetu nego tehnologiji?

What if your toilet could analyze your waste

Što ako bi tvoj zahod mogao analizirati tvoj izmet

and let you know if your microbiome might need a little tune-up?

i obavijestiti te da bi trebao poraditi na mikrobiomima?

What if today's experiments with turning human waste into fuel

Što ako nas današnji testovi pretvaranja ljudskog izmeta u gorivo

leads to a smart battery that could help power your home?

dovedu do pametnih baterija kojima ćemo napajati naš dom?

But back to the city of the future.

No vratimo se gradu budućnosti.

How do people navigate the space?

Kako se ljudi snalaze u prostoru?

If there's no streets, how do people even make sense of the geography?

Ako nema ulica, kako si ljudi objašnjavaju prostorno kretanje?

I like to think of a place where there are spaces

Rado razmišljam o prostorima u kojima mjesta

that are partially only in virtual reality

dijelom postoje samo u virtualnoj stvarnosti.

that maybe you need special hardware to even discover.

I da nam treba poseban hardver kako bismo ga uopće otkrili.

Like for one story, I came up with a thing called "the cloudscape interface,"

Za jednu priču osmislila sam "cloudspace" sučelje

which I described as a chrome spider that plugs into your head

koje sam opisala kao kromiranog pauka koji se priključi na tvoju glavu

using temporal nodes.

preko privremenih čvorova.

No, that's not a picture of it, but it's a fun picture I took in a bar.

Ne, to nije slika toga, ali je zanimljiva slika iz kafića.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

And I got really carried away imagining the bars, restaurants, cafés

Zanijela sam se u zamišljanju restorana, barova, kafića

that you could only find your way inside

koje bi mogao pronaći samo

if you had the correct augmented reality hardware.

ako bi imao točan hardver za baš tu virtualnu stvarnost.

But again, second-order effects:

Ali opet, sekundarni učinci:

in a world shaped by augmented reality,

u svijetu oblikovanom proširenom stvarnošću,

what kind of new communities will we have,

kakve ćemo nove zajednice imati,

what kind of new crimes that we haven't even thought of yet?

kakav će biti kriminal o kojem još nismo ni razmišljali?

OK, like, let's say that you and I are standing next to each other,

Recimo da vi i ja stojimo jedno kraj drugog

and you think that we're in a noisy sports bar,

i vi mislite da smo u glasnom sportskom baru,

and I think we're in a highbrow salon

a ja mislim da smo u profinjenom salonu

with a string quartet talking about Baudrillard.

s gudačkim kvartetom, gdje se priča o Baudrillardu.

I can't possibly imagine what might go wrong in that scenario.

Ne mogu ni zamisliti što bi moglo poći krivo u ovom scenariju.

Like, it's just -- I'm sure it'll be fine.

Sigurno će sve biti u redu.

And then there's social media.

I tu su još društveni mediji.

I can imagine some pretty frickin' dystopian scenarios

Mogu zamisliti nekoliko dobrih distopijskih scenarija.

where things like internet quizzes,

U kojem bi internetski kvizovi,

dating apps, horoscopes, bots,

aplikacije za upoznavanje, horoskopi, botovi,

all combine to drag you down deeper and deeper rabbit holes

svi bi nas zajedno vukli sve dublje i dublje u svoj vrtlog

into bad relationships and worse politics.

loših veza i još gore politike.

But then I think about the conversations that I've had

Ali onda razmišljam o razgovorima koje sam vodila

with people who work on AI,

s ljudima koji rade na UI.

and what I always hear from them is that the smarter AI gets,

I svaki puta mi kažu da što je UI pametnija,

the better it is at making connections.

to je bolja u povezivanju stvari.

So maybe the social media of the future will be better.

Možda će se tako društveni mediji i poboljšati u budućnosti.

Maybe it'll help us to form healthier, less destructive relationships.

Možda će nam pomoći oblikovati zdravije i manje destruktivne veze.

Maybe we'll have devices that enable togetherness and serendipity.

Možda ćemo imati uređaje koji će omogućiti zajedništvo i slučajno otkrivanje.

I really hope so.

Stvarno se nadam.

And, you know, I like to think that if strong AI ever really exists,

I mislim si da ukoliko bude ikad i postojala snažna UI,

they'll probably enjoy our weird relationship drama

sigurno će uživati u našim čudnim dramatičnim vezama,

the same way that you and I love to obsess about the "Real Housewives of Wherever."

isto kao što mi volimo pratiti "Kućanice čegagod".

And finally, there's medicine.

I naposljetku dolazimo do medicine.

I think a lot about how developments in genetic medicine

Dosta razmišljam kako bi razvoj genetske medicine

could improve outcomes for people with cancer or dementia,

mogao poboljšati ishode za ljude s rakom ili demencijom.

and maybe one day, your hundredth birthday will be just another milestone

I možda će jednog dana vaš stoti rođendan biti nova prekretnica

on the way to another two or three decades of healthy, active life.

u nova dva ili tri desetljeća zdravog i aktivnog života.

Maybe the toilet of the future that I mentioned

Možda će zahod budućnosti kojeg sam spomenula

will improve health outcomes for a lot of people,

popraviti zdravstveno stanje mnogih ljudi,

including people in parts of the world

uključujući ljude u dijelovima svijeta

where they don't have these complicated sewer systems that I mentioned.

koji nemaju spomenutu kompliciranu kanalizaciju.

But also, as a transgender person,

Također, kao transrodna osoba,

I like to think: What if we make advances in understanding the endocrine system

volim misliti da ako se unaprijedimo u shvaćanju endokrinog sustava.

that improve the options for trans people,

To bi poboljšalo opcije za transrodne ljude

the same way that hormones and surgeries expanded the options

isto kao što su hormoni i operacije proširile opcije

for the previous generation?

za prijašnje generacije.

So finally: basically, I'm here to tell you,

U biti, ja sam vam ovdje došla reći

people talk about the future

da ljudi pričaju o budućnosti

as though it's either going to be a technological wonderland

kao da će biti ili tehnološki svijet čuda

or some kind of apocalyptic poop barbecue.

ili neka vrsta užasne apokaliptične roštiljade.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

But the truth is, it's not going to be either of those things.

Ali istina je da neće biti ni jedno od te dvije stvari.

It's going to be in the middle. It's going to be both. It's going to be everything.

Bit će negdje u sredini. Bit će oboje. Bit će sve.

Jedino što znamo je

The one thing we do know

da će budućnost biti jako čudna.

is that the future is going to be incredibly weird.

Just think about how weird the early 21st century would appear

Samo zamislite kako bi 21. stoljeće bilo čudno

to someone from the early 20th.

nekome iz ranog 20. stoljeća.

And, you know, there's a kind of logical fallacy that we all have

I, znate, postoji vrsta logičke zablude koju svi imamo

where we expect the future to be an extension of the present.

gdje očekujemo da će budućnost biti nastavak sadašnjosti.

Like, people in the 1980s

Kao što su ljudi 1980-tih

thought that the Soviet Union would still be around today.

mislili da će Sovjetski Savez i danas postojati.

But the future is going to be much weirder than we could possibly dream of.

Ali budućnost će biti mnogo čudnija nego mi možemo zamisliti.

But we can try.

Ali možemo pokušati.

And I know that there are going to be scary, scary things,

I znam da će biti jako strašnih stvari,

but there's also going to be wonders and saving graces.

ali će biti i čuda i milosti.

And the first step to finding your way forward

I prvi vaš korak prema naprijed

is to let your imagination run free.

je da oslobodite svoju maštu.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)