Go Ahead, Dream About the Future | Charlie Jane Anders | TED

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Kwerella Lam

Every science fiction writer

每位科幻小說作家

has a story about a time when the future arrived too soon.

都有一個故事， 講述未來總是來得太快 。

I have a lot of those stories.

我聽過很多這類故事。

Like, OK, for example:

好吧，比如，

years ago, I was writing a story where the government

幾年前，我在寫一個故事，

starts using drones to kill people.

關於政府開始使用無人機來殺人。

I thought that this was a really intense, futuristic idea,

我認為這是個很激烈、 很有未來感的點子，

but by the time the story was published,

但，到了故事出版的時候，

the government was already using drones to kill people.

政府已經在用無人機殺人了。

Our world is changing so fast,

我們的世界改變很快，

and there's a kind of accelerating feedback loop

回饋的迴圈也不斷在加速，

where technological change and social change feed on each other.

技術和社會的改變互相回饋。

When I was a kid in the 1980s,

八○年代，我還小的時候，

we knew what the future was going to look like.

我們知道未來會是什麼樣子的。

It was going to be some version of "Judge Dredd" or "Blade Runner."

未來會是某種版本的 《超時空戰警》或《銀翼殺手》。

It was going to be neon megacities and flying vehicles.

未來會是滿是霓虹燈 和飛行交通工具的大城市。

But now, nobody knows what the world is going to look like

但現在，沒有人知道 世界將來會是什麼樣子，

even in just a couple years,

就連幾年後都很難想像，

and there are so many scary apparitions lurking on the horizon.

有太多可怕的特異景象 潛伏在地平線。

From climate catastrophe to authoritarianism,

從氣候災難到獨裁主義，

everybody is obsessed with apocalypses,

人人都對世界末日很著迷，

even though the world ends all the time, and we keep going.

雖然世界總是在滅亡， 但我們仍然繼續走下去。

Don't be afraid to think about the future, to dream about the future,

不用害怕去思考未來、想像未來、

to write about the future.

撰寫未來。

I've found it really liberating and fun to do that.

我發現那麼做是很解放且很有趣的。

It's a way of vaccinating yourself

這是一種先給自己打疫苗，

against the worst possible case of future shock.

才能在面對未來衝擊的 最糟糕狀況也能免疫。

It's also a source of empowerment,

它也是賦能的一個來源，

because you cannot prepare for something that you haven't already visualized.

因為你不可能為你 不曾想像過的東西做準備。

But there's something that you need to know.

但有一件事各位必須要知道。

You don't predict the future;

你不能預測未來；

you imagine the future.

你是在想像未來。

So as a science fiction writer

所以，身為科幻小說作家，

whose stories often take place years or even centuries from now,

撰寫的故事通常都發生在 數年或數世紀之後的時代，

I've found that people are really hungry for visions of the future

我發現大家很渴望看到

that are both colorful and lived in,

多姿多采且長年有人居住的未來，

but I found that research on its own is not enough to get me there.

但我發現光靠研究 無法讓我做到這些。

Instead, I use a mixture of active dreaming

而我採用的方法反而是混合積極的夢境

and awareness of cutting-edge trends in science and technology

及對科學及科技最新趨勢的意識，

and also insight into human history.

再加上對人類歷史的洞察。

I think a lot about what I know of human nature

我想了很多我所知道的人類天性，

and the way that people have responded in the past to huge changes

以及過去的人對巨大改變、

and upheavals and transformations.

動盪、轉型的因應方式。

And I pair that with an attention to detail,

我把那些再搭配上對細節的留心，

because the details are where we live.

因為我們就是生活在細節中。

We tell the story of our world through the tools we create

我們透過我們創造的工具 以及我們生活的空間

and the spaces that we live in.

來訴說我們這個世界的故事。

And at this point, it's helpful to know a couple of terms

在這裡，先跟各位介紹 幾個科幻小說作家

that science fiction writers use all of the time:

經常使用的用語，等下會用到：

"future history" and "second-order effects."

「未來歷史」以及「次級效應」。

Now, future history is basically just what it sounds like.

基本上，未來歷史就是字面的意思。

It is a chronology of things that haven't happened yet,

它是未發生之事件的年表，

like Robert A. Heinlein's famous story cycle,

就像羅伯特海萊恩著名的故事循環，

which came with a detailed chart of upcoming events

它會搭配i詳細的圖表， 記載即將發生的事件，

going up into the year 2100.

一直記錄到 2100 年。

Or, for my most recent novel,

或者，我為了我最近的小說，

I came up with a really complicated time line

想出了非常複雜的時間線，

that goes all the way to the 33rd century

一路到三十三世紀，

and ends with people living on another planet.

最後是大家到另一個星球生活。

Meanwhile, a second-order effect is basically the kind of thing

至於次級效應則是

that happens after the consequences of a new technology or a huge change.

在新技術或巨大改變 造成的後果之後所發生的事。

There's a saying often attributed to writer and editor Frederik Pohl

有一句話，一般認為是出自 作家及編輯弗雷德里克波爾：

that "A good science fiction story

「好的科幻小說故事

should predict not just the invention of the automobile,

不應該只預測到汽車的發明，

but also the traffic jam."

還要預測到塞車。」

And speaking of traffic jams,

說到塞車，

I spent a lot of time trying to picture the city of the future.

我花了很多時間 試圖想像未來的城市。

What's it like? What's it made of?

它是什麼樣子？由什麼組成？

Who's it for?

為誰建造？

I try to picture a green city with vertical farms

我試圖想像一個綠色城市， 有垂直的農場，

and structures that are partially grown rather than built

建築物有一部分是 長出來的，而不是建造的，

and walkways instead of streets,

沒有街道只有走道，

because nobody gets around by car anymore --

因為沒有人再開車到處跑了——

a city that lives and breathes.

這個城市有生命、會呼吸。

And, you know, I kind of start by daydreaming the wildest stuff

我一開始是先作白日夢，

that I can possibly come up with,

發揮我最狂野的想像力，

and then I go back into research mode,

接著，我再回到研究模式，

and I try to make it as plausible as I can

我會試圖讓它盡可能看起來合理，

by looking at a mixture of urban futurism, design porn

因此我會去研究都市未來主義、

煽動的設計素材，及科技臆測。

and technological speculation.

And then I go back, and I try to imagine what it would actually be like

接著，我會再回頭去試著想像

to be inside that city.

身在那個城市中會是什麼樣子的。

So my process kind of begins and ends with imagination,

所以，我的流程始於想像，終於想像。

and it's like my imagination is two pieces of bread

就彷彿我的想像是

研究三明治中的兩片麵包。

in a research sandwich.

So as a storyteller, first and foremost,

身為說故事的人， 首先，也是最重要的，

I try to live in the world through the eyes of my characters

我要試著透過角色的視角來過生活，

and try to see how they navigate their own personal challenges

試著了解他們如何 在我所創造的空間中

in the context of the space that I've created.

處理他們個人的挑戰。

What do they smell? What do they touch?

他們會聞到什麼、碰到什麼？

What's it like to fall in love inside a smart city?

在智慧城市中戀愛會是什麼樣子的？

What do you see when you look out your window,

你從你的窗戶向外看會看見什麼？

and does it depend on how the window's software interacts with your mood?

看到的景象是否會根據窗戶軟體 和你的心情互動來顯示？

And finally, I ask myself how a future brilliant city

最後，我會問我自己， 未來的聰明城市要如何

would ensure that nobody is homeless and nobody slips through the cracks.

確保沒有人無家可歸、 沒有人被忽略掉了。

And here's where future history comes in handy,

此時，未來歷史就很有用了，

because cities don't just spring up overnight like weeds.

因為城市不會像野草一樣 一夜就突然出現。

They arise and transform.

城市會興起、轉變。

They bear the scars and ornaments of wars, migrations,

城市會帶著戰爭、遷移、經濟景氣、

economic booms, cultural awakenings.

文化覺醒的傷疤及裝飾。

A future city should have monuments, yeah,

未來的城市應該會有紀念碑，對，

but it should also have layers of past architecture,

但它也應該會有 一層又一層的過去建築、

repurposed buildings

重新利用的建築物，

and all of the signs of how we got to this place.

以及我們何以成為 目前狀況的所有標記。

And then there's second-order effects,

接下來是次級效應，

like how do things go wrong -- or right --

像是事情怎會 以沒有人預期到的方式

in a way that nobody ever anticipated?

出錯——或對了呢？

Like, if the walls of your apartment are made out of a kind of fungus

就像是，如果你的公寓的牆壁 是用某種菌類植物製造，

that can regrow itself to repair any damage,

它自己會再生，來修補損傷，

what if people start eating the walls?

那麼，如果大家開始 吃牆壁會怎麼樣？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Speaking of eating:

說到吃：

What kind of sewer system does the city of the future have?

未來的城市有怎樣的下水道系統？

It's a trick question. There are no sewers.

這是個棘手的問題。 未來沒有下水道。

There's something incredibly bizarre about the current system we have

目前我們在美國所使用的系統

有一個非常怪異的特性，

in the United States,

where your waste gets flushed into a tunnel

廢水會被沖到地道中，

to be mixed with rainwater and often dumped into the ocean.

和雨水混合在一起， 通常會被送入海洋。

Not to mention toilet paper.

更不用說廁所衛生紙了。

A bunch of techies, led by Bill Gates,

現在，比爾蓋茲率領一群科技專家

are trying to reinvent the toilet right now,

試圖要重新發明廁所，

and it's possible that the toilet of the future

有可能，未來的廁所

could appear incredibly strange to someone living today.

在現代人的眼中會非常詭異。

So how does the history of the future, all of that trial and error,

所以，那個未來的歷史、 所有那些嘗試和錯誤，

lead to a better way to go to the bathroom?

如何促成了更好的上廁所方式？

There are companies right now

現在就有些公司

who are experimenting with a kind of cleaning wand

在實驗一種清理棒，

that can substitute for toilet paper,

可以代替廁所衛生紙，

using compressed air or sanitizing sprays to clean you off.

用壓縮空氣或清潔噴霧 來幫你做清理。

But what if those things looked more like flowers than technology?

但，如果那些東西看起來 更像是花朵而非科技呢？

What if your toilet could analyze your waste

如果你的廁所能分析你的排泄物，

and let you know if your microbiome might need a little tune-up?

讓你知道你的微生物群 是否需要調節呢？

What if today's experiments with turning human waste into fuel

如果現今將人類廢棄物 轉為燃料的實驗

leads to a smart battery that could help power your home?

促成了智慧電池， 能用來供電給你的家呢？

But back to the city of the future.

但，回到未來的城市。

How do people navigate the space?

人要如何在空間中找方向？

If there's no streets, how do people even make sense of the geography?

如果沒有街道， 人要如何理解地理位置？

I like to think of a place where there are spaces

在我想像中的地方，

that are partially only in virtual reality

空間有一部分是虛擬實境，

that maybe you need special hardware to even discover.

也許還需要一種 特殊硬體才能去探索。

Like for one story, I came up with a thing called "the cloudscape interface,"

比如，在一個故事中， 我想出了「雲景介面」，

which I described as a chrome spider that plugs into your head

我把它描述為一種鉻蜘蛛，

從太陽穴節點連結到你的頭部。

using temporal nodes.

No, that's not a picture of it, but it's a fun picture I took in a bar.

不，這張圖不是它， 是我在酒吧拍下的有趣圖片。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And I got really carried away imagining the bars, restaurants, cafés

我很忘情地不斷想像 那些酒吧、餐廳、咖啡廳，

that you could only find your way inside

唯有擁有正確的擴增實境硬體，

if you had the correct augmented reality hardware.

才能夠進入這些地方。

But again, second-order effects:

但，同樣的，次級效應：

in a world shaped by augmented reality,

在擴增實境所形成的世界中，

what kind of new communities will we have,

會有什麼我們還沒想到的 新社區、新犯罪？

what kind of new crimes that we haven't even thought of yet?

OK, like, let's say that you and I are standing next to each other,

好，比如，我們兩人並排站著，

and you think that we're in a noisy sports bar,

你認為我們身處在 吵鬧的運動酒吧裡，

and I think we're in a highbrow salon

我認為我們在高雅的交誼廳裡，

with a string quartet talking about Baudrillard.

聽弦樂四重奏樂團談尚布希亞。

I can't possibly imagine what might go wrong in that scenario.

我無法想像在那種情境中 有什麼可能會出錯的地方。

Like, it's just -- I'm sure it'll be fine.

就像——我認為一切都會很好。

And then there's social media.

接著，還有社群媒體，

I can imagine some pretty frickin' dystopian scenarios

我能想像出一些很反烏托邦的情境，

where things like internet quizzes,

在這些情境中，網路惡作劇、

dating apps, horoscopes, bots,

約會應用程式、占星算命、 機器人等等東西

all combine to drag you down deeper and deeper rabbit holes

全都結合起來把你一點一點 拉入混亂與複雜當中，

into bad relationships and worse politics.

拉入不好的戀情和糟糕的政治中。

But then I think about the conversations that I've had

但接著我會想像 我和人工智慧領域的人談過的話，

with people who work on AI,

and what I always hear from them is that the smarter AI gets,

我總會聽到他們說，

人工智慧越聰明 就會越擅長建立連結。

the better it is at making connections.

So maybe the social media of the future will be better.

所以，也許未來的 社群媒體會比較好。

Maybe it'll help us to form healthier, less destructive relationships.

也許它會協助我們建立更健康 而不是更有毀滅性的關係。

Maybe we'll have devices that enable togetherness and serendipity.

也許我們會有一些裝置 來形成和睦與機緣。

I really hope so.

我真的希望如此。

And, you know, I like to think that if strong AI ever really exists,

我也會想要這麼想：

如果強大的人工智慧真的存在，

they'll probably enjoy our weird relationship drama

它們可能會很享受我們 八點檔般的人際關係，

the same way that you and I love to obsess about the "Real Housewives of Wherever."

就像你我都很迷《某某家庭主婦》 （美國各地的實境秀）一樣。

And finally, there's medicine.

最後，還有醫學。

I think a lot about how developments in genetic medicine

我常常會去想基因醫學的發展

could improve outcomes for people with cancer or dementia,

會如何改善癌症或失智症患者的結果，

and maybe one day, your hundredth birthday will be just another milestone

也許有一天，你可以 健康活躍地活到兩、三百歲，

on the way to another two or three decades of healthy, active life.

而一百歲生日會變成 只是壽命中的一個里程碑而已。

Maybe the toilet of the future that I mentioned

也許我剛提到的未來廁所

will improve health outcomes for a lot of people,

會改善許多人的健康結果，

including people in parts of the world

就連住在全世界那些 沒有複雜下水道系統的區域，

where they don't have these complicated sewer systems that I mentioned.

也可能有所改善。

But also, as a transgender person,

但，此外，身為變性人，

I like to think: What if we make advances in understanding the endocrine system

我也會想：如果我們對 內分泌系統有更多的了解，

that improve the options for trans people,

能改善變性人的選項，

the same way that hormones and surgeries expanded the options

就像荷爾蒙及手術 為上一個世代的變性人

for the previous generation?

擴展出更多選項一樣？

So finally: basically, I'm here to tell you,

最後：基本上， 我來這裡是要告訴各位，

people talk about the future

大家所談論的未來

as though it's either going to be a technological wonderland

若不是科技的仙境

or some kind of apocalyptic poop barbecue.

就是某種世界末日糞便燒烤。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But the truth is, it's not going to be either of those things.

但事實是，未來不會是那樣的。

It's going to be in the middle. It's going to be both. It's going to be everything.

未來可能在兩者之間、 兩者都是、通通都是。

我們可以確定的是，

The one thing we do know

未來會非常奇怪。

is that the future is going to be incredibly weird.

想想看，在二十世紀初的人眼中，

Just think about how weird the early 21st century would appear

二十一世紀看起來會多奇怪。

to someone from the early 20th.

And, you know, there's a kind of logical fallacy that we all have

我們都有一種邏輯上的謬誤，

where we expect the future to be an extension of the present.

我們會預期未來是現在的延伸。

Like, people in the 1980s

比如，八○年代的人

thought that the Soviet Union would still be around today.

認為蘇聯現今仍然會存在。

But the future is going to be much weirder than we could possibly dream of.

但未來會比我們能夠 幻想的還要更奇怪許多。

But we can try.

但我們能試著想像。

And I know that there are going to be scary, scary things,

我知道將來會有很可怕的東西，

but there's also going to be wonders and saving graces.

但也會有美好和可取之處。

And the first step to finding your way forward

要找到向前走的路，第一步

is to let your imagination run free.

就是解放你的想像力。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）