Go Ahead, Dream About the Future | Charlie Jane Anders | TED

Translator: Nika Kotnik Reviewer: Klavdija Černilogar Dwyer

Every science fiction writer

Vsak pisec znanstvene fantastike

has a story about a time when the future arrived too soon.

ima zgodbo o tem, kako je prihodnost prišla prehitro.

I have a lot of those stories.

Imam veliko takih zgodb.

Like, OK, for example:

Na primer:

years ago, I was writing a story where the government

pred leti sem pisala zgodbo, v kateri vlada

starts using drones to kill people.

začne uporabljati drone za ubijanje ljudi.

I thought that this was a really intense, futuristic idea,

To se mi je zdela res intenzivna futuristična ideja,

but by the time the story was published,

a do takrat, ko je bila zgodba objavljena,

the government was already using drones to kill people.

je vlada že začela z uporabo dronov za ubijanje ljudi.

Our world is changing so fast,

Naš svet se spreminja tako hitro

and there's a kind of accelerating feedback loop

in nas sooča z vse hitrejšim tokom povratnih informacij,

where technological change and social change feed on each other.

v katerem se tehnološke spremembe in družbene spremembe med seboj napajajo.

When I was a kid in the 1980s,

Ko sem bila otrok v osemdesetih,

we knew what the future was going to look like.

smo vedeli, kako bo izgledala prihodnost.

It was going to be some version of "Judge Dredd" or "Blade Runner."

Bila naj bi kot različica filma "Sodnik Dredd" ali "Iztrebljevalec".

It was going to be neon megacities and flying vehicles.

Z neonskimi megamesti in letečimi vozili.

But now, nobody knows what the world is going to look like

A zdaj nihče ne ve, kako bo izgledal svet

even in just a couple years,

celo samo čez nekaj let

and there are so many scary apparitions lurking on the horizon.

in na obzorju preži toliko prikazni.

From climate catastrophe to authoritarianism,

Od podnebnih katastrof do avtoritarnih režimov,

everybody is obsessed with apocalypses,

vsi so obsedeni z apokalipso,

even though the world ends all the time, and we keep going.

in čeprav se svet neprestano končuje, mi še vedno vztrajamo.

Don't be afraid to think about the future, to dream about the future,

Ne bojte se razmišljati o prihodnosti, sanjati o prihodnosti,

to write about the future.

pisati o prihodnosti.

I've found it really liberating and fun to do that.

Odkrila sem, da je to res osvobajajoče in zabavno.

It's a way of vaccinating yourself

Na nek način se cepiš

against the worst possible case of future shock.

proti najslabšemu primeru prihodnjega šoka.

It's also a source of empowerment,

Je tudi vir opolnomočenja,

because you cannot prepare for something that you haven't already visualized.

ker se ne moreš pripraviti na nekaj, česar si še nisi predstavljal.

But there's something that you need to know.

A nekaj morate vedeti.

You don't predict the future;

Prihodnosti ne predvidevate;

you imagine the future.

predstavljate si jo.

So as a science fiction writer

Kot avtorica znanstvene fantastike,

whose stories often take place years or even centuries from now,

katere zgodbe se pogosto dogajajo leta ali celo stoletja v prihodnosti,

I've found that people are really hungry for visions of the future

vidim, da so ljudje res lačni vizij prihodnosti,

that are both colorful and lived in,

ki so barvite, pa tudi življenjske,

but I found that research on its own is not enough to get me there.

a odkrila sem, da tega ne bom dosegla samo z raziskovanjem.

Instead, I use a mixture of active dreaming

Namesto tega uporabljam mešanico aktivnega sanjanja

and awareness of cutting-edge trends in science and technology

in zavedanja o trenutnih trendih v znanosti in tehnologiji

and also insight into human history.

in prav tako vpogled v človeško zgodovino.

I think a lot about what I know of human nature

Razmišljam o tem, kar vem o človeški naravi,

and the way that people have responded in the past to huge changes

in o načinu, na katerega so se ljudje v preteklosti odzivali na velike spremembe

and upheavals and transformations.

in pretrese in preobrazbe.

And I pair that with an attention to detail,

In to povežem s pozornostjo na podrobnosti,

because the details are where we live.

ker v podrobnostih živimo.

We tell the story of our world through the tools we create

Zgodbo našega sveta povemo skozi orodja, ki jih ustvarimo,

and the spaces that we live in.

in prostore, v katerih živimo.

And at this point, it's helpful to know a couple of terms

Na tej točki je dobro poznati nekaj izrazov,

that science fiction writers use all of the time:

ki jih pisci znanstvene fantastike uporabljamo ves čas:

"future history" and "second-order effects."

"prihodnja preteklost" in "učinek drugega reda".

Now, future history is basically just what it sounds like.

Prihodnja preteklost je praktično to, kar si mislite.

It is a chronology of things that haven't happened yet,

To je časovnica stvari, ki se še niso zgodile,

like Robert A. Heinlein's famous story cycle,

kot slaven cikel zgodb Roberta A. Heinleina,

which came with a detailed chart of upcoming events

ki pride s podrobnim diagramom prihajajočih dogodkov

going up into the year 2100.

vse do leta 2100.

Or, for my most recent novel,

Ali pa: v svojem zadnjem romanu

I came up with a really complicated time line

sem se domislila zelo zapletene časovnice,

that goes all the way to the 33rd century

ki gre vse do 33. stoletja,

and ends with people living on another planet.

in se konča s tem, da ljudje živijo na drugem planetu.

Meanwhile, a second-order effect is basically the kind of thing

Medtem pa je učinek drugega reda tisto,

that happens after the consequences of a new technology or a huge change.

kar se zgodi po posledicah nove tehnologije ali ogromne spremembe.

There's a saying often attributed to writer and editor Frederik Pohl

Tole izjavo velikokrat pripisujejo pisatelju in uredniku Frederiku Pohlu:

that "A good science fiction story

"Dobra znanstvenofantastična zgodba

should predict not just the invention of the automobile,

mora predvideti ne samo izum avtomobila,

but also the traffic jam."

ampak tudi prometne zastoje."

And speaking of traffic jams,

In ko smo pri prometnih zastojih,

I spent a lot of time trying to picture the city of the future.

veliko časa preživim tako, da si predstavljam mesto prihodnosti.

What's it like? What's it made of?

Kakšno je? Iz česa je narejeno?

Who's it for?

Za koga je?

I try to picture a green city with vertical farms

Poskušam si predstavljati zeleno mesto z vertikalnimi nasadi

and structures that are partially grown rather than built

in strukture, ki so deloma zrasle, namesto da bi bile zgrajene,

and walkways instead of streets,

in sprehajalne poti namesto cest,

because nobody gets around by car anymore --

ker se nihče več ne vozi z avtom -

a city that lives and breathes.

mesto, ki živi in diha.

And, you know, I kind of start by daydreaming the wildest stuff

In veste, začnem sanjariti o najbolj nenavadnih stvareh,

that I can possibly come up with,

ki se jih lahko domislim,

and then I go back into research mode,

in grem nato nazaj raziskovat

and I try to make it as plausible as I can

in to poskušam narediti kar se da realistično,

by looking at a mixture of urban futurism, design porn

tako da opazujem mešanico urbanega futurizma, norega dizajna

and technological speculation.

in tehnološke špekulacije.

And then I go back, and I try to imagine what it would actually be like

In nato se vrnem in si poskušam predstavljati, kako bi bilo dejansko

to be inside that city.

biti znotraj tega mesta.

So my process kind of begins and ends with imagination,

Moj proces se torej začne in konča z domišljijo

and it's like my imagination is two pieces of bread

in moja domišljija je kot dva kosa kruha

in a research sandwich.

v raziskovalnem sendviču.

So as a storyteller, first and foremost,

Kot pripovedovalka zgodb

I try to live in the world through the eyes of my characters

poskušam najprej živeti v svetu skozi svoje osebe

and try to see how they navigate their own personal challenges

in videti, kako gredo skozi svoje osebne izzive

in the context of the space that I've created.

v kontekstu prostora, ki sem ga ustvarila.

What do they smell? What do they touch?

Kaj vohajo? Česa se dotikajo?

What's it like to fall in love inside a smart city?

Kako je zaljubiti se v pametnem mestu?

What do you see when you look out your window,

Kaj vidiš, ko pogledaš skozi okno,

and does it depend on how the window's software interacts with your mood?

in ali programska oprema okna vpliva na tvoje razpoloženje?

And finally, I ask myself how a future brilliant city

In končno se vprašam, kako bi briljantno mesto prihodnosti poskrbelo,

would ensure that nobody is homeless and nobody slips through the cracks.

da ne bi bi bilo brezdomcev in nihče ne bi padel skozi luknje v sistemu.

And here's where future history comes in handy,

In tu pride prav prihodnja preteklost,

because cities don't just spring up overnight like weeds.

saj taka mesta ne zrastejo čez noč kot plevel.

They arise and transform.

Nastanejo in se preobrazijo.

They bear the scars and ornaments of wars, migrations,

Na njih so brazgotine in okrasje vojn, migracij,

economic booms, cultural awakenings.

ekonomskih bumov, kulturnih prebujanj.

A future city should have monuments, yeah,

Mesto prihodnosti naj ima spomenike,

but it should also have layers of past architecture,

a prav tako naj ima plasti pretekle arhitekture,

repurposed buildings

stavbe, ki dobijo nov namen,

and all of the signs of how we got to this place.

in vse znake tega, kako smo prišli do sem.

And then there's second-order effects,

In nato so tu učinki drugega reda,

like how do things go wrong -- or right --

kako gredo stvari lahko narobe - ali prav -

in a way that nobody ever anticipated?

na načine, ki jih nihče ni pričakoval?

Like, if the walls of your apartment are made out of a kind of fungus

Na primer, če so stene stanovanja iz neke vrste glive,

that can regrow itself to repair any damage,

ki se lahko zaraste, da popravi nastalo škodo,

what if people start eating the walls?

kaj bo, če začnejo ljudje jesti stene?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Speaking of eating:

Ko smo že pri hrani:

What kind of sewer system does the city of the future have?

Kakšno kanalizacijo ima mesto prihodnosti?

It's a trick question. There are no sewers.

To je zvito vprašanje. Ni kanalizacije.

There's something incredibly bizarre about the current system we have

Nekaj neverjetno bizarnega je na trenutnem sistemu

in the United States,

v ZDA,

where your waste gets flushed into a tunnel

kjer se kanalizacija zliva v tunel,

to be mixed with rainwater and often dumped into the ocean.

pomeša z deževnico in pogosto zlije v ocean.

Not to mention toilet paper.

Da ne omenjam toaletnega papirja.

Veliko tehnoloških navdušencev, ki jih vodi Bill Gates,

A bunch of techies, led by Bill Gates,

are trying to reinvent the toilet right now,

poskuša na novo izumiti stranišče,

and it's possible that the toilet of the future

in možno je, da bo stranišče prihodnosti

could appear incredibly strange to someone living today.

izgledalo neverjetno čudno za nekoga, ki živi danes.

So how does the history of the future, all of that trial and error,

Kako torej zgodovina prihodnosti, vse to preizkušanje,

lead to a better way to go to the bathroom?

vodi k boljšemu stranišču?

There are companies right now

Obstajajo podjetja,

who are experimenting with a kind of cleaning wand

ki eksperimentirajo z nekakšno čistilno palico,

that can substitute for toilet paper,

ki lahko nadomesti toaletni papir

using compressed air or sanitizing sprays to clean you off.

z uporabo stisnjenega zraka ali čistilnega spreja.

But what if those things looked more like flowers than technology?

A kaj, če bi te stvari izgledale bolj kot rože kot tehnologija?

What if your toilet could analyze your waste

Kaj če bi stranišče lahko analiziralo vaše blato

and let you know if your microbiome might need a little tune-up?

in vam povedalo, če vaš mikrobiom potrebuje malo nege?

What if today's experiments with turning human waste into fuel

Kaj če bi današnji eksperimenti, ki predelajo človeško blato v gorivo,

leads to a smart battery that could help power your home?

vodili v pametno baterijo, ki bi lahko pomagala napajati vaš dom?

But back to the city of the future.

A nazaj v mesto prihodnosti.

How do people navigate the space?

Kako se ljudje gibljejo v prostoru?

If there's no streets, how do people even make sense of the geography?

Če ni cest, kako se ljudje znajdejo v njem?

I like to think of a place where there are spaces

Rada si zamišljam prostore,

that are partially only in virtual reality

ki obstajo deloma le v virtualni resničnosti

that maybe you need special hardware to even discover.

in morda potrebujete posebno opremo, da jih odkrijete.

Like for one story, I came up with a thing called "the cloudscape interface,"

Za eno zgodbo sem se domislila nečesa po imenu "vmesnik v oblaku",

which I described as a chrome spider that plugs into your head

ki je opisan kot pajek iz kroma, ki se priklopi v vašo glavo

using temporal nodes.

s temporalnimi vozli.

No, that's not a picture of it, but it's a fun picture I took in a bar.

Ne, to ni to. To je hecna fotografija, ki sem jo posnela v baru.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And I got really carried away imagining the bars, restaurants, cafés

In res me je zaneslo pri zamišljanju barov, restavracij, kavarn,

that you could only find your way inside

do katerih dostop najdete le,

if you had the correct augmented reality hardware.

če imate pravilno opremo razširjene resničnosti.

But again, second-order effects:

Spet, učinek drugega reda:

in a world shaped by augmented reality,

v svetu, ki ga oblikuje razširjena resničnost,

what kind of new communities will we have,

kakšne nove skupnosti bomo imeli,

what kind of new crimes that we haven't even thought of yet?

kakšne nove zločine, ki si jih nismo niti zamislili?

OK, like, let's say that you and I are standing next to each other,

Recimo da vi in jaz stojiva skupaj

and you think that we're in a noisy sports bar,

in vi mislite, da sva v glasnem športnem baru,

and I think we're in a highbrow salon

jaz pa, da sva v uglajenem salonu,

with a string quartet talking about Baudrillard.

z godalnim kvartetom in debato o Baudrillardu.

I can't possibly imagine what might go wrong in that scenario.

Ne morem si predstavljati, kaj bi lahko šlo pri tem scenariju narobe.

Like, it's just -- I'm sure it'll be fine.

Poglejte - prepričana sem, da bo ok.

And then there's social media.

In nato so tu družabna omrežja.

I can imagine some pretty frickin' dystopian scenarios

Lahko si predstavljam nore distopijske scenarije,

where things like internet quizzes,

kjer se stvari, kot so internetni kvizi,

dating apps, horoscopes, bots,

aplikacije za zmenke, horoskopi, boti

all combine to drag you down deeper and deeper rabbit holes

vsi združijo, da vas zvlečejo globlje in globlje v zajčje luknje

into bad relationships and worse politics.

slabih razmerij in še slabše politike.

But then I think about the conversations that I've had

A nato pomislim na pogovore, ki sem jih imela

with people who work on AI,

s strokovnjaki za umetno inteligenco,

and what I always hear from them is that the smarter AI gets,

in od njih slišim, da bolj ko je UI pametna,

the better it is at making connections.

boljša je pri delanju povezav.

So maybe the social media of the future will be better.

Morda bodo družabna omrežja torej v prihodnosti boljša.

Maybe it'll help us to form healthier, less destructive relationships.

Morda nam bo pomagala oblikovati bolj zdrava, manj uničujoča razmerja.

Maybe we'll have devices that enable togetherness and serendipity.

Morda bomo imeli naprave, ki bodo omogočale bližino in srečna naključja.

I really hope so.

Res upam.

And, you know, I like to think that if strong AI ever really exists,

In veste, rada si zamišljam, da če bo močna UI res obstajala,

they'll probably enjoy our weird relationship drama

bo najbrž uživala v naši drami razmerij,

the same way that you and I love to obsess about the "Real Housewives of Wherever."

tako kot smo mi radi obsedeni s "Pravimi gospodinjami iz kajjazvemkje".

And finally, there's medicine.

In končno, tu je še medicina.

I think a lot about how developments in genetic medicine

Premišljujem o tem, kako bi napredek v genetski medicini

could improve outcomes for people with cancer or dementia,

lahko izboljšal možnosti za ljudi z rakom in demenco,

and maybe one day, your hundredth birthday will be just another milestone

in morda bo nekega dne vaš stoti rojstni dan samo mejnik

on the way to another two or three decades of healthy, active life.

na poti v še dve ali tri desetletja zdravega aktivnega življenja.

Maybe the toilet of the future that I mentioned

Morda bo stranišče prihodnosti, ki sem ga omenila,

will improve health outcomes for a lot of people,

izboljšalo zdravje mnogih ljudi,

including people in parts of the world

tudi ljudi v delih sveta,

where they don't have these complicated sewer systems that I mentioned.

kjer nimajo take zapletene kanalizacije, kot sem jo opisala.

But also, as a transgender person,

A tudi, kot transspolna oseba

I like to think: What if we make advances in understanding the endocrine system

razmišljam: kaj če bomo napredovali v razumevanju endokrinega sistema,

that improve the options for trans people,

ki bo izboljšal možnosti za trans osebe,

the same way that hormones and surgeries expanded the options

tako kot so hormoni in operacije razširili možnosti

for the previous generation?

za prejšnjo generacijo?

So finally: basically, I'm here to tell you,

In še, tu sem, da vam povem,

people talk about the future

ljudje govorijo o prihodnosti,

as though it's either going to be a technological wonderland

kot da bo ali tehnološki raj

or some kind of apocalyptic poop barbecue.

ali pa apokaliptični posran piknik.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But the truth is, it's not going to be either of those things.

A v resnici ne bo nobena izmed teh dveh stvari.

It's going to be in the middle. It's going to be both. It's going to be everything.

Nekje na sredini bo. Oboje bo. Vse bo.

Vemo pa eno: prihodnost bo neverjetno čudna.

The one thing we do know

is that the future is going to be incredibly weird.

Pomislite, kako čudno bi se zdelo 21. stoletje

Just think about how weird the early 21st century would appear

to someone from the early 20th.

nekomu iz dvajsetega.

And, you know, there's a kind of logical fallacy that we all have

In veste, vsi delamo to logično napako,

where we expect the future to be an extension of the present.

kjer pričakujemo, da bo prihodnost podaljšek sedanjosti.

Like, people in the 1980s

Ljudje so leta 1980

thought that the Soviet Union would still be around today.

menili, da bo Sovjetska zveza v naših časih še obstajala.

But the future is going to be much weirder than we could possibly dream of.

A prihodnost bo veliko bolj čudna, kot si lahko predstavljamo.

But we can try.

Lahko pa poskusimo.

And I know that there are going to be scary, scary things,

In vem, da bodo tu strašne, strašne stvari,

but there's also going to be wonders and saving graces.

a tu bodo tudi neverjetne stvari in blagoslovi.

And the first step to finding your way forward

In prvi korak k temu, da greste naprej,

is to let your imagination run free.

je to, da pustite domišljiji prosto pot.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplavz)