Go Ahead, Dream About the Future | Charlie Jane Anders | TED

Translator: Mario Cal Reviewer: Xosé María Moreno

Every science fiction writer

Todo autor de ciencia ficción

has a story about a time when the future arrived too soon.

ten algún relato sobre un tempo no que o futuro chegou demasiado pronto.

I have a lot of those stories.

Eu teño moitos deses relatos.

Like, OK, for example:

Este, por exemplo:

years ago, I was writing a story where the government

Hai anos estaba a escribir unha historia na que o goberno

starts using drones to kill people.

comeza a matar xente con drons.

I thought that this was a really intense, futuristic idea,

Eu cría que era unha idea moi intensa e futurista,

but by the time the story was published,

pero para cando foi publicada,

the government was already using drones to kill people.

o goberno xa estaba a usar drons para matar xente.

Our world is changing so fast,

O noso mundo muda rapidísimo,

and there's a kind of accelerating feedback loop

e cada vez se acelera máis

where technological change and social change feed on each other.

o ciclo no que o cambio tecnolóxico e o social se retroalimentan.

When I was a kid in the 1980s,

Cando era pequena, na década de 1980,

we knew what the future was going to look like.

sabiamos como ía ser o futuro.

It was going to be some version of "Judge Dredd" or "Blade Runner."

Ía ser algunha versión de "Xuíz Dredd" ou "Blade Runner".

It was going to be neon megacities and flying vehicles.

Habería megalópoles de neón e vehículos voantes.

But now, nobody knows what the world is going to look like

Pero agora ninguén sabe como vai ser o futuro

even in just a couple years,

nin sequera dentro dun par de anos,

and there are so many scary apparitions lurking on the horizon.

e terribles fantasmas axexan no horizonte.

From climate catastrophe to authoritarianism,

Desde as catástrofes climáticas ata o autoritarismo.

everybody is obsessed with apocalypses,

todo o mundo está obsesionado coas apocalipses,

even though the world ends all the time, and we keep going.

aínda que o mundo non pare de acabarse e nós sigamos aquí.

Don't be afraid to think about the future, to dream about the future,

Non teñades medo de pensar no futuro, de soñar co futuro,

to write about the future.

de escribir sobre o futuro.

I've found it really liberating and fun to do that.

Eu atópoo moi liberador e divertido.

It's a way of vaccinating yourself

É un xeito de vacinarse

against the worst possible case of future shock.

contra o peor "choque do futuro" posible.

It's also a source of empowerment,

É ademais unha fonte de empoderamento,

because you cannot prepare for something that you haven't already visualized.

porque non te podes preparar para algo se non o visualizas antes.

Pero tedes que saber algo.

But there's something that you need to know.

You don't predict the future;

O futuro non se predí;

you imagine the future.

o futuro imaxínase.

So as a science fiction writer

Como escritora de ciencia ficción

whose stories often take place years or even centuries from now,

cuxas historias adoitan acontecer no futuro, dentro de anos ou de séculos,

I've found that people are really hungry for visions of the future

descubrín que a xente devece por visións do futuro

that are both colorful and lived in,

que sexan á vez excitantes e habitables,

but I found that research on its own is not enough to get me there.

pero vin que para chegar aí non abondaba con investigar.

Instead, I use a mixture of active dreaming

No canto diso, combino a capacidade de soñar de forma activa

and awareness of cutting-edge trends in science and technology

co coñecemento das novas tendencias en ciencia e tecnoloxía

and also insight into human history.

e a comprensión da historia humana.

I think a lot about what I know of human nature

Penso moito no que sei sobre a natureza humana

and the way that people have responded in the past to huge changes

e o xeito en que a xente respondeu no pasado ante enormes cambios

and upheavals and transformations.

e conmocións e transformacións.

And I pair that with an attention to detail,

E conecto iso coa atención aos detalles,

because the details are where we live.

porque é nos detalles onde vivimos.

We tell the story of our world through the tools we create

Contamos a historia do noso mundo por medio das ferramentas que creamos

and the spaces that we live in.

e os espazos nos que vivimos.

And at this point, it's helpful to know a couple of terms

Neste punto, cómpre coñecer un par de termos

that science fiction writers use all of the time:

que os autores de ciencia ficción usamos todo o tempo:

"future history" and "second-order effects."

"historia futura" e "efectos de segunda orde".

Now, future history is basically just what it sounds like.

Ben, a historia futura é máis ou menos o que parece.

It is a chronology of things that haven't happened yet,

É unha cronoloxía de cousas que aínda non aconteceron,

like Robert A. Heinlein's famous story cycle,

como o coñecido ciclo de relatos de Robert A. Heinlein,

which came with a detailed chart of upcoming events

que traía un esquema detallado de acontecementos futuros

going up into the year 2100.

que chegaba ata o ano 2100.

Or, for my most recent novel,

Ou, para a miña última novela,

I came up with a really complicated time line

ocorréuseme unha liña temporal moi complicada

that goes all the way to the 33rd century

que chega ata o século XXXIII

and ends with people living on another planet.

e ten un final no que a xente vive noutro planeta.

Meanwhile, a second-order effect is basically the kind of thing

Por outra banda, un efecto de segunda orde é en esencia iso que acontece

that happens after the consequences of a new technology or a huge change.

tralas consecuencias dunha nova tecnoloxía ou dun cambio moi grande.

There's a saying often attributed to writer and editor Frederik Pohl

Segundo un dito a miúdo atribuído ao escritor e editor Frederik Pohl,

that "A good science fiction story

"un bo relato de ciencia ficción

should predict not just the invention of the automobile,

debería predicir non só a invención do automóbil,

but also the traffic jam."

senón tamén o atasco".

And speaking of traffic jams,

E falando de atascos,

I spent a lot of time trying to picture the city of the future.

botei moito tempo intentando imaxinar a cidade do futuro.

What's it like? What's it made of?

Como é? De que está feita?

Who's it for?

Para quen é?

I try to picture a green city with vertical farms

Intento imaxinar unha cidade verde con granxas verticais

and structures that are partially grown rather than built

e estruturas que son en parte cultivadas máis ca construídas

and walkways instead of streets,

e pasarelas no canto de rúas,

because nobody gets around by car anymore --

porque xa ninguén se despraza en coche.

a city that lives and breathes.

Unha cidade que vive e respira.

And, you know, I kind of start by daydreaming the wildest stuff

Comezo por imaxinar as ideas máis fantasiosas

that I can possibly come up with,

que son quen de concibir,

and then I go back into research mode,

e entón volvo ao modo investigadora

and I try to make it as plausible as I can

e trato de facelas o máis verosímiles posible

by looking at a mixture of urban futurism, design porn

mesturando futurismo urbano, interiorismo de luxo

and technological speculation.

e especulación tecnolóxica.

And then I go back, and I try to imagine what it would actually be like

E logo volvo a intentar imaxinar como sería realmente

to be inside that city.

estar dentro desa cidade.

So my process kind of begins and ends with imagination,

Así que o meu proceso comeza e remata coa imaxinación,

and it's like my imagination is two pieces of bread

como se a miña imaxinación fosen as dúas rebandas de pan

in a research sandwich.

dun bocadillo de investigación.

So as a storyteller, first and foremost,

Como narradora, trato ante todo

I try to live in the world through the eyes of my characters

de vivir no mundo a través dos ollos dos meus personaxes

and try to see how they navigate their own personal challenges

e intento ver como se desenvolven ante os seus desafíos persoais

in the context of the space that I've created.

no contexto do espazo que eu creei.

What do they smell? What do they touch?

Que olen? Que tocan?

What's it like to fall in love inside a smart city?

Como é namorarse nunha cidade intelixente?

What do you see when you look out your window,

Que ves cando miras pola fiestra?

and does it depend on how the window's software interacts with your mood?

Depende de como o software da fiestra interactúe co teu estado de ánimo?

And finally, I ask myself how a future brilliant city

E por último pregúntome como unha cidade xenial do futuro

would ensure that nobody is homeless and nobody slips through the cracks.

garantiría que todos tivesen un teito e que ninguén se coase polas fendas.

And here's where future history comes in handy,

E aí é onde a historia futura resulta moi útil,

because cities don't just spring up overnight like weeds.

porque as cidades non brotan dun día para outro.

They arise and transform.

Xorden e transfórmanse.

They bear the scars and ornaments of wars, migrations,

Mostran as cicatrices e os ornamentos das guerras, as migracións,

economic booms, cultural awakenings.

as expansións económicas, os espertares culturais.

A future city should have monuments, yeah,

Unha cidade do futuro debería ter monumentos, si,

but it should also have layers of past architecture,

pero debería ter tamén capas de arquitecturas pasadas,

repurposed buildings

edificios reconvertidos

and all of the signs of how we got to this place.

e tódolos indicios de como chegamos ata este lugar.

And then there's second-order effects,

E logo están os efectos de segunda orde,

like how do things go wrong -- or right --

por exemplo, como as cousas saen mal --ou ben--

in a way that nobody ever anticipated?

dun xeito que ninguén previra?

Like, if the walls of your apartment are made out of a kind of fungus

Se as paredes do teu piso están feitas dalgún tipo de fungo

that can regrow itself to repair any damage,

que pode rexenerarse só para reparar defectos,

what if people start eating the walls?

qué pasaría se a xente comezase a comer os tabiques?

(Laughter)

(Risas)

Speaking of eating:

Falando de comer,

What kind of sewer system does the city of the future have?

cómo é a rede de sumidoiros da cidade do futuro?

It's a trick question. There are no sewers.

É unha pregunta trampa. Non hai sumidoiros.

There's something incredibly bizarre about the current system we have

O sistema que temos hoxe nos Estados Unidos

in the United States,

é estrañísimo.

where your waste gets flushed into a tunnel

Os refugallos saen por un túnel

to be mixed with rainwater and often dumped into the ocean.

onde se mesturan coa auga de choiva e a miúdo van parar ao océano.

Not to mention toilet paper.

Por non mencionar o papel hixiénico.

A bunch of techies, led by Bill Gates,

Un grupiño de expertos, dirixidos por Bill Gates,

are trying to reinvent the toilet right now,

están agora mesmo intentando reinventar o retrete,

and it's possible that the toilet of the future

e pode que o retrete do futuro

could appear incredibly strange to someone living today.

lle pareza estrañísimo a alguén de hoxe en día.

So how does the history of the future, all of that trial and error,

Como é entón que a historia do futuro, todo ese ensaio e erro,

lead to a better way to go to the bathroom?

acaba nunha forma mellor de ir ao baño?

There are companies right now

Agora mesmo hai empresas

who are experimenting with a kind of cleaning wand

que están probando unha especie de variña limpadora

that can substitute for toilet paper,

que pode substituír o papel hixiénico

using compressed air or sanitizing sprays to clean you off.

por aire comprimido ou pulverización desinfectante.

But what if those things looked more like flowers than technology?

Pero, e se esas cousas tivesen máis aspecto de flores ca de tecnoloxía?

What if your toilet could analyze your waste

E se o teu retrete puidese analizar os teus refugallos

and let you know if your microbiome might need a little tune-up?

e informarte de que o teu microbioma necesitaría unha posta a punto

What if today's experiments with turning human waste into fuel

E se os experimentos de hoxe para converter residuos en combustible

leads to a smart battery that could help power your home?

resultan nunha batería intelixente que che proporcione luz na casa?

But back to the city of the future.

Pero volvamos á cidade do futuro.

How do people navigate the space?

Como se orienta a xente no espazo?

If there's no streets, how do people even make sense of the geography?

Se non hai rúas, como logran aclararse coa xeografía?

I like to think of a place where there are spaces

A min gústame pensar nun lugar no que hai espazos

that are partially only in virtual reality

que existen parcialmente só na realidade virtual

that maybe you need special hardware to even discover.

e para descubrilos se cadra necesitas un hardware especial.

Like for one story, I came up with a thing called "the cloudscape interface,"

Para un dos meus relatos, ocorréuseme algo chamado "o interfaz de nube",

which I described as a chrome spider that plugs into your head

que describía como unha araña cromada que se conecta á cabeza

using temporal nodes.

a través dos nodos temporais.

No, that's not a picture of it, but it's a fun picture I took in a bar.

Non. Non é iso. Esa é unha foto graciosa que saquei nun bar.

(Laughter)

(Risas)

And I got really carried away imagining the bars, restaurants, cafés

Deixeime levar e púxenme a imaxinar bares, restaurantes, cafés

that you could only find your way inside

nos que só podías entrar

if you had the correct augmented reality hardware.

se contabas co hardware de realidade aumentada axeitado.

But again, second-order effects:

Pero, de novo, efectos de segunda orde:

in a world shaped by augmented reality,

nun mundo configurado pola realidade aumentada,

what kind of new communities will we have,

que clase de comunidades novas teremos?

what kind of new crimes that we haven't even thought of yet?

que clase de novos delitos que nin se nos ocorreran aínda?

OK, like, let's say that you and I are standing next to each other,

Digamos que estamos aí, un ao pé do outro,

and you think that we're in a noisy sports bar,

e ti pensas que estamos nun bar ruidoso vendo deportes nas pantallas,

and I think we're in a highbrow salon

e eu que estamos nun club elegante,

with a string quartet talking about Baudrillard.

falando de Baudrillard e cun cuarteto de corda en directo.

I can't possibly imagine what might go wrong in that scenario.

Non logro nin imaxinar que podería saír mal nesa situación.

Like, it's just -- I'm sure it'll be fine.

Vamos, que estou segura de que vai ir todo ben.

And then there's social media.

E logo están os medios sociais.

I can imagine some pretty frickin' dystopian scenarios

Poido imaxinar contextos distópicos de verdade

where things like internet quizzes,

nos que cousas como concursos en liña,

dating apps, horoscopes, bots,

aplicacións de citas, horóscopos, bots

all combine to drag you down deeper and deeper rabbit holes

combínanse para arrastrarnos por tobos de coello cada vez máis fondos

into bad relationships and worse politics.

a malas relacións e peores políticas.

But then I think about the conversations that I've had

Pero entón penso nas conversas que levo tido

with people who work on AI,

cos que traballan en Intelixencia Artificial,

and what I always hear from them is that the smarter AI gets,

e o que me din é que canto máis intelixentes son os sistemas,

the better it is at making connections.

máis facilidade teñen para crear conexións.

So maybe the social media of the future will be better.

Así que pode que os medios sociais do futuro sexan mellores.

Maybe it'll help us to form healthier, less destructive relationships.

Pode que nos axuden a establecer relacións máis sas e menos destrutivas.

Maybe we'll have devices that enable togetherness and serendipity.

Se cadra teremos dispositivos que permitan a camaradaría e a serendipidade.

I really hope so.

Espero que sexa así.

And, you know, I like to think that if strong AI ever really exists,

Gústame pensar que se chega a existir una IA potente de verdade,

they'll probably enjoy our weird relationship drama

probablemente os divirtan moito os nosos estraños dramas persoais,

the same way that you and I love to obsess about the "Real Housewives of Wherever."

igual que a vós e a min nos obsesiona a telerrealidade tipo "Esposas reais"

And finally, there's medicine.

E, por último, está a medicina.

I think a lot about how developments in genetic medicine

Penso moito sobre como os achados en xenética médica

could improve outcomes for people with cancer or dementia,

poderían mellorar os resultados con enfermos de cancro ou demencia,

and maybe one day, your hundredth birthday will be just another milestone

e pode que un día cheguemos a cumprir cen anos

on the way to another two or three decades of healthy, active life.

con dúas ou tres décadas máis de vida sa e activa por diante.

Maybe the toilet of the future that I mentioned

Se cadra o retrete do futuro que mencionei antes

will improve health outcomes for a lot of people,

mellorará a saúde de moita xente,

including people in parts of the world

mesmo dos que viven en zonas do mundo

where they don't have these complicated sewer systems that I mentioned.

nas que carecen das complicadas redes de sumidoiros das que falei.

But also, as a transgender person,

Pero ademais, como persoa transxénero,

I like to think: What if we make advances in understanding the endocrine system

gústame pensar: e se avanzásemos na nosa comprensión do sistema endócrino

that improve the options for trans people,

de modo que mellorasen as opcións para as persoas trans,

the same way that hormones and surgeries expanded the options

do mesmo xeito que as hormonas e a cirurxía ampliaron as opcións

for the previous generation?

da xeración anterior?

So finally: basically, I'm here to tell you,

Para rematar, vin para dicirvos

people talk about the future

que a xente fala do futuro

as though it's either going to be a technological wonderland

como se fose ser un paraíso tecnolóxico

or some kind of apocalyptic poop barbecue.

ou unha merda de churrascada apocalíptica.

(Laughter)

(Risas)

O certo é que non vai ser ningunha desas cousas.

But the truth is, it's not going to be either of those things.

It's going to be in the middle. It's going to be both. It's going to be everything.

Vai estar entre ambas cousas, vai ser as dúas, ser todo.

O que si sabemos

The one thing we do know

é que o futuro vai ser estrañísimo.

is that the future is going to be incredibly weird.

Pensade no raro que lle parecería este comezo do século XXI

Just think about how weird the early 21st century would appear

to someone from the early 20th.

a alguén de comezos do XX.

And, you know, there's a kind of logical fallacy that we all have

É que, veredes, todos caemos nunha especie de falacia lóxica

where we expect the future to be an extension of the present.

cando agardamos que o futuro sexa unha extensión do presente.

Por exemplo, na década de 1980

Like, people in the 1980s

thought that the Soviet Union would still be around today.

a xente pensaba que a Unión Soviética existiría aínda hoxe.

But the future is going to be much weirder than we could possibly dream of.

Pero o futuro vai ser moito máis estraño do que poderíamos soñar.

But we can try.

Podemos intentalo.

And I know that there are going to be scary, scary things,

Xa sei que vai haber cousas realmente aterradoras,

but there's also going to be wonders and saving graces.

pero haberá tamén cousas admirables e meritorias.

And the first step to finding your way forward

E o primeiro paso para atopar o xeito de avanzar

is to let your imagination run free.

é deixar voar a imaxinación.

Thank you.

Grazas.

(Applause)

(Aplausos)