Why jobs of the future won't feel like work | David Lee

Prevodilac: Kristina Radosavljević Lektor: Tijana Mihajlović

So there's a lot of valid concern these days

Ovih dana postoji realna bojazan

that our technology is getting so smart

da naša tehnologija postaje toliko pametna

that we've put ourselves on the path to a jobless future.

da smo se zaputili u budućnost bez posla.

And I think the example of a self-driving car

Smatram da se na primeru samovozećih kola

is actually the easiest one to see.

to, u stvari, najbolje vidi.

So these are going to be fantastic for all kinds of different reasons.

Dakle, ovo će biti fantastično iz mnogo različitih razloga.

But did you know that "driver" is actually the most common job

Ali, da li ste znali da je vozač, u stvari, najčešće zanimanje

in 29 of the 50 US states?

u 29 od 50 država u SAD?

What's going to happen to these jobs when we're no longer driving our cars

Šta će se desiti sa ovim poslovima kada više ne budemo vozili kola,

or cooking our food

kuvali našu hranu

or even diagnosing our own diseases?

ili čak dijagnostifikovali naše bolesti?

Well, a recent study from Forrester Research

Pa, nedavna studija iz istraživanja „Forestera“

goes so far to predict that 25 million jobs

ide toliko daleko da predviđa da bi 25 miliona poslova

might disappear over the next 10 years.

moglo nestati u narednih 10 godina.

To put that in perspective,

Poređenja radi,

that's three times as many jobs lost in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

to je tri puta veći gubitak poslova nego posledica finansijske krize.

And it's not just blue-collar jobs that are at risk.

I ne radi se tu samo o riziku po poslove za radničku klasu.

On Wall Street and across Silicon Valley, we are seeing tremendous gains

Na Vol Stritu i širom Silicijumske doline vidimo neverovatan napredak

in the quality of analysis and decision-making

u kvalitetu analize i odlučivanju

because of machine learning.

zbog mašinskog učenja.

So even the smartest, highest-paid people will be affected by this change.

Dakle, čak će i najpametniji, najplaćeniji ljudi biti pogođeni ovim promenama.

What's clear is that no matter what your job is,

Sigurno je da će, bez obzira na to šta vam je posao,

at least some, if not all of your work,

bar deo, ako ne ceo vaš posao,

is going to be done by a robot or software in the next few years.

obavljati roboti ili softveri u narednih nekoliko godina.

And that's exactly why people like Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates

I upravo zbog toga ljudi kao što su Mark Zakerberg i Bil Gejts

are talking about the need for government-funded minimum income levels.

pričaju o potrebi obezbeđivanja minimalnog dohotka od strane države.

But if our politicians can't agree on things like health care

Ali, ako naši političari ne mogu da se slože

oko pitanja kao što je zdravstvena zaštita ili čak školska užina,

or even school lunches,

I just don't see a path where they'll find consensus

jednostavno ne vidim način da pronađu koncenzus

on something as big and as expensive as universal basic life income.

oko nečeg tako velikog i skupog kao što je jedinstveni osnovni dohodak.

Instead, I think the response needs to be led by us in industry.

Umesto toga, smatram da bi rešenje trebalo da ponudimo mi iz industrije.

We have to recognize the change that's ahead of us

Mi moramo prepoznati promene koje dolaze

and start to design the new kinds of jobs

i početi da stvaramo nove vrste poslova

that will still be relevant in the age of robotics.

koji će biti potrebni i u doba robotike.

The good news is that we have faced down and recovered

Dobra vest je da smo se već suočili i oporavili

two mass extinctions of jobs before.

od dva masovna izumiranja poslova.

From 1870 to 1970,

Od 1870. do 1970. godine

the percent of American workers based on farms fell by 90 percent,

procenat američkih radnika na farmama pao je za 90 posto,

and then again from 1950 to 2010,

a zatim ponovo od 1950. do 2010. godine

the percent of Americans working in factories

procenat Amerikanaca koji su radili u fabrikama

fell by 75 percent.

opao je za 75 odsto.

The challenge we face this time, however, is one of time.

Međutim, izazov sa kojim se susrećemo ovog puta je jedinstven.

We had a hundred years to move from farms to factories,

Imali smo sto godina da se premestimo sa farmi u fabrike

and then 60 years to fully build out a service economy.

i onda još 60 godina da u potpunosti izgradimo ekonomiju usluga.

The rate of change today

Stopa promena danas

suggests that we may only have 10 or 15 years to adjust,

ukazuje na to da ćemo možda imati 10 do 15 godina da se prilagodimo

and if we don't react fast enough,

i, ukoliko ne budemo odreagovali dovoljno brzo,

that means by the time today's elementary-school students

to znači da, dok današnji osnovci ne postanu studenti,

are college-aged,

we could be living in a world that's robotic,

moglo bi se desiti da živimo u svetu robotike,

largely unemployed and stuck in kind of un-great depression.

sa velikom nezaposlenošću i zaglavljeni u nekoj vrsti Nevelike depresije.

But I don't think it has to be this way.

Ali, ne verujem da mora biti tako.

You see, I work in innovation,

Vidite, radim na inovacijama,

and part of my job is to shape how large companies apply new technologies.

a deo mog posla je oblikovanje načina

na koji kompanije primenjuju nove tehnologije.

Certainly some of these technologies

Naravno, neke od ovih tehnologija

are even specifically designed to replace human workers.

su čak specijalno dizajnirane da zamene ljudsku radnu snagu.

But I believe that if we start taking steps right now

Ali, ja verujem da, ukoliko sada počnemo sa preduzimanjem koraka

to change the nature of work,

kako bismo promenili prirodu posla,

we can not only create environments where people love coming to work

ne samo da možemo stvoriti okruženje gde će ljudi voleti da dolaze na posao,

but also generate the innovation that we need

nego ćemo i stvoriti inovacije koje su nam potrebne

to replace the millions of jobs that will be lost to technology.

da bismo zamenili milione poslova koji će biti izgubljeni zbog tehnologije.

I believe that the key to preventing our jobless future

Verujem da je ključ za sprečavanje naše budućnosti bez posla

is to rediscover what makes us human,

ponovno pronalaženje onoga što nas čini ljudima

and to create a new generation of human-centered jobs

i stvaranje novih generacija poslova orijentisanih na ljude

that allow us to unlock the hidden talents and passions

koji nam omogućavaju da otkrijemo skrivene talente i strasti

that we carry with us every day.

koje svakodnevno nosimo u sebi.

But first, I think it's important to recognize

Ali, pre svega, mislim da je važno prepoznati

that we brought this problem on ourselves.

da smo sami sebi stvorili ovaj problem.

And it's not just because, you know, we are the one building the robots.

I to ne samo zato što, znate, mi pravimo robote,

But even though most jobs left the factory decades ago,

nego zato što, iako većina poslova ne postoji u fabrikama već decenijama,

we still hold on to this factory mindset

i dalje se držimo fabričkog načina razmišljanja

of standardization and de-skilling.

standardizacije i zamene kvalifikovanih radnika mašinama.

We still define jobs around procedural tasks

I dalje definišemo poslove kroz proceduralne zadatke,

and then pay people for the number of hours that they perform these tasks.

a zatim plaćamo ljude na osnovu broja radnih sati.

We've created narrow job definitions

Stvorili smo usko definisane poslove

like cashier, loan processor or taxi driver

kao što su blagajnik, kreditni službenik ili taksista,

and then asked people to form entire careers

a onda smo tražili od ljudi da celu svoju karijeru baziraju

around these singular tasks.

na ovim jednostavnim zadacima.

These choices have left us with actually two dangerous side effects.

Ovakvi izbori su nas, u stvari, ostavili sa dve opasne nuspojave.

The first is that these narrowly defined jobs

Prva je što će ovi uskospecijalizovani poslovi

will be the first to be displaced by robots,

biti prvi koji će biti zamenjeni robotima,

because single-task robots are just the easiest kinds to build.

jer je robote za jednostavne zadatke, u stvari, najlakše napraviti.

But second, we have accidentally made it

Ali, druga nuspojava koju smo slučajno napravili

so that millions of workers around the world

jeste da milioni radnika širom sveta

have unbelievably boring working lives.

imaju neverovatno dosadne poslovne živote.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Let's take the example of a call center agent.

Uzmimo, na primer, radnika za podršku u kol centru.

Over the last few decades, we brag about lower operating costs

Tokom nekoliko proteklih decenija,

hvalili smo se zbog nižih operativnih troškova

because we've taken most of the need for brainpower

jer smo zaposlenom oduzeli veći deo potrebe za razmišljanjem

out of the person and put it into the system.

i ugurali ga u sistem.

For most of their day, they click on screens,

Tokom većeg dela dana oni klikću po ekranu,

they read scripts.

čitaju unapred pripremljeni tekst.

They act more like machines than humans.

Ponašaju se više kao mašine nego kao ljudi.

And unfortunately, over the next few years,

I, nažalost, tokom narednih nekoliko godina,

as our technology gets more advanced,

kako naša tehnologija bude napredovala,

they, along with people like clerks and bookkeepers,

oni, zajedno sa ljudima kao što su službenici ili bibliotekari,

will see the vast majority of their work disappear.

biće svedoci toga da većina njihovog posla nestaje.

To counteract this, we have to start creating new jobs

Da bismo ovo ublažili, moramo osmisliti nove poslove

that are less centered on the tasks that a person does

koji su manje skoncentrisani na zadatke koje osoba obavlja,

and more focused on the skills that a person brings to work.

a više na veštine koje ona unosi u posao.

For example, robots are great at repetitive and constrained work,

Na primer, roboti su odlični za ograničenu radnju koja se ponavlja,

but human beings have an amazing ability

ali ljudska bića imaju neverovatnu mogućnost

to bring together capability with creativity

da spoje sposobnost i kreativnost

when faced with problems that we've never seen before.

kada se suoče sa problemom koji nikad ranije nisu videli.

It's when every day brings a little bit of a surprise

To je kada nas svaki dan pomalo iznenadi

that we have designed work for humans

time da smo stvorili posao za ljude,

and not for robots.

a ne za robote.

Our entrepreneurs and engineers already live in this world,

Naši preduzetnici i inženjeri već žive u takvom svetu,

but so do our nurses and our plumbers

kao i naše medicinske sestre, naši vodoinstalateri

and our therapists.

i naši terapeuti.

You know, it's the nature of too many companies and organizations

Znate, praksa prevelikog broja kompanija i organizacija

to just ask people to come to work and do your job.

je da jednostavno traže od ljudi da dolaze i obavljaju posao.

But if you work is better done by a robot,

Ali, ukoliko roboti bolje obavljaju vaš posao

or your decisions better made by an AI,

ili ako bolje odluke od vas donosi veštačka inteligencija,

what are you supposed to be doing?

šta se očekuje od vas da radite?

Well, I think for the manager,

Pa, što se tiče menadžera,

we need to realistically think about the tasks that will be disappearing

moramo realno da razmislimo o zadacima koji će nestati

over the next few years

u narednih nekoliko godina

and start planning for more meaningful, more valuable work that should replace it.

i da počnemo planirati smisleniji i značajniji posao koji ih može zameniti.

We need to create environments

Moramo stvoriti okruženje

where both human beings and robots thrive.

gde će se razvijati ljudi i roboti.

I say, let's give more work to the robots,

Predlažem: dajte više posla robotima

and let's start with the work that we absolutely hate doing.

i hajde da počnemo sa onim poslovima koje apsolutno mrzimo da obavljamo.

Here, robot,

Evo, robote,

process this painfully idiotic report.

obradi ovaj bolno idiotski izveštaj.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And move this box. Thank you.

I pomeri ovu kutiju. Hvala ti.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And for the human beings,

A što se ljudskih bića tiče,

we should follow the advice from Harry Davis at the University of Chicago.

trebalo bi slediti savet Harija Dejvisa sa Univerziteta u Čikagu.

On kaže da moramo to napraviti tako da ljudi ne ostavljaju prevelik deo sebe

He says we have to make it so that people don't leave too much of themselves

in the trunk of their car.

skriven od očiju drugih.

I mean, human beings are amazing on weekends.

Mislim, ljudska bića su fenomenalna vikendom.

Think about the people that you know and what they do on Saturdays.

Razmislite o ljudima koje poznajete i šta oni rade subotom.

They're artists, carpenters, chefs and athletes.

Oni su umetnici, stolari, kuvari i atletičari,

But on Monday, they're back to being Junior HR Specialist

ali ponedeljkom ponovo postaju specijalista za ljudske resurse

and Systems Analyst 3.

ili analitičar sistema 3.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

You know, these narrow job titles not only sound boring,

Znate, ovi nazivi za uskospecijalizovane poslove ne samo da su dosadni,

but they're actually a subtle encouragement

nego predstavljaju i suptilno ohrabrenje ljudima,

for people to make narrow and boring job contributions.

da stvaraju uskogrud i dosadan doprinos.

But I've seen firsthand that when you invite people to be more,

Ali, ja sam iz prve ruke video da, ako zatražite od ljudi da budu nešto više,

they can amaze us with how much more they can be.

oni mogu da nas zadive time koliko bolji mogu biti.

A few years ago, I was working at a large bank

Pre nekoliko godina, radio sam u velikoj banci

that was trying to bring more innovation into its company culture.

koja je pokušavala da uvede više inovacija u samu kulturu kompanije.

So my team and I designed a prototyping contest

Tako smo moj tim i ja osmislili takmičenje za prototip,

that invited anyone to build anything that they wanted.

koji je omogućavao svakome da napravi šta god je hteo.

We were actually trying to figure out

U stvari, pokušavali smo da shvatimo

whether or not the primary limiter to innovation

da li je osnovna prepreka inovacijama

was a lack of ideas or a lack of talent,

nedostatak ideja ili nedostatak talenta,

and it turns out it was neither one.

a ispostavilo se da nije ni jedno ni drugo.

It was an empowerment problem.

Problem je bio u nedostatku podsticanja.

And the results of the program were amazing.

A rezultati programa su bili zadivljujući.

We started by inviting people to reenvision

Počeli smo sa podsticanjem ljudi da ponovo osmisle

what it is they could bring to a team.

šta to oni mogu doneti u tim.

This contest was not only a chance to build anything that you wanted

Ovo takmičenje nije bila samo prilika da se napravi šta god želite

but also be anything that you wanted.

nego i da budete bilo šta što želite.

And when people were no longer limited by their day-to-day job titles,

A kada ljudi više nisu bili ograničeni svojim svakodnevnim titulama,

they felt free to bring all kinds of different skills and talents

osećali su se slobodno da pokažu razne vrste veština i talenata

to the problems that they were trying to solve.

pri nalaženju rešenja za problem koji su pokušavali da reše.

We saw technology people being designers, marketing people being architects,

Videli smo tehničare kao dizajnere, ljude iz marketinga kao arhitekte,

and even finance people showing off their ability to write jokes.

i čak sposobnost ljudi iz finansija za pisanje viceva.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

We ran this program twice,

Ovaj program smo sprovodili dva puta,

and each time more than 400 people brought their unexpected talents to work

a svaki put je više od 400 ljudi pokazalo neočekivani talenat za rad

and solved problems that they had been wanting to solve for years.

i rešavanje problema koje su godinama želeli da reše.

Collectively, they created millions of dollars of value,

Zajedno su stvorili milione dolara vrednosti,

building things like a better touch-tone system for call centers,

stvarajući stvari kao što su bolji sistem tonskog pozivanja za kol centar,

easier desktop tools for branches

jednostavnije desktop alatke za fajlove,

and even a thank you card system

pa čak i sistem sa zahvalnicama

that has become a cornerstone of the employee working experience.

koji je postao kamen temeljac radnog iskustva zaposlenih.

Over the course of the eight weeks,

Tokom osmonedeljnog kursa,

people flexed muscles that they never dreamed of using at work.

ljudi su pokretali mišiće koje nisu nikad mogli zamisliti da će koristiti na poslu,

People learned new skills,

naučili su nove veštine,

they met new people,

upoznali su nove ljude

and at the end, somebody pulled me aside and said,

i, na kraju, neko me je povukao na stranu i rekao:

"I have to tell you,

„Moram Vam reći,

the last few weeks has been one of the most intense,

poslednjih nekoliko nedelja je bilo jedno od najnapetijih

hardest working experiences of my entire life,

i najtežih radnih iskustava u celom mom životu,

but not one second of it felt like work."

ali ni jednog trenutka nije delovalo kao posao.“

And that's the key.

U tome i jeste ključ.

For those few weeks, people got to be creators and innovators.

Tokom tih nekoliko nedelja ljudi su morali da budu stvaraoci i inovatori.

They had been dreaming of solutions

Sanjali su o rešenjima problema

to problems that had been bugging them for years,

koji su ih mučili godinama,

and this was a chance to turn those dreams into a reality.

a to je bila šansa da pretvore te snove u stvarnost.

And that dreaming is an important part of what separates us from machines.

To sanjarenje je važan deo koji razdvaja nas od mašina.

For now, our machines do not get frustrated,

Za sada, naše mašine ne postaju isfrustrirane,

they do not get annoyed,

ne postaju iznervirane

and they certainly don't imagine.

i svakako ne zamišljaju.

But we, as human beings --

Ali, mi kao ljudska bića

we feel pain,

osećamo bol,

we get frustrated.

iznerviramo se.

And it's when we're most annoyed and most curious

I upravo kad smo najviše iznervirani ili najzainteresovaniji,

that we're motivated to dig into a problem and create change.

tada smo motivisani da kopamo po problemu i stvaramo promene.

Our imaginations are the birthplace of new products, new services,

Naša mašta je mesto gde se rađaju novi proizvodi, nove usluge,

and even new industries.

pa čak i nove industrije.

I believe that the jobs of the future

Verujem da će poslovi budućnosti

will come from the minds of people

poteći iz uma ljudi

who today we call analysts and specialists,

koje danas zovemo analitičari ili specijalisti,

but only if we give them the freedom and protection that they need to grow

ali samo ako im damo slobodu i zaštitu koja im je neophodna za prerastanje

into becoming explorers and inventors.

u istraživače i inovatore.

If we really want to robot-proof our jobs,

Ako zaista želimo da zaštitimo naše poslove od robotizovanja,

we, as leaders, need to get out of the mindset

mi, kao lideri, moramo da izađemo iz okvira

of telling people what to do

u kome govorimo ljudima šta da rade

and instead start asking them what problems they're inspired to solve

i, umesto toga, da počnemo da ih pitamo koje probleme žele da rešavaju

and what talents they want to bring to work.

i koje talente žele da unesu u posao.

Because when you can bring your Saturday self to work on Wednesdays,

Jer, ako uspete da dovedete subotnjeg sebe da radi sredom,

you'll look forward to Mondays more,

više ćete se radovati ponedeljku,

and those feelings that we have about Mondays

a to osećanje koje imamo o ponedeljku

are part of what makes us human.

je ono što nas čini ljudima.

And as we redesign work for an era of intelligent machines,

I dok redizajniramo posao za eru inteligentnih mašina,

I invite you all to work alongside me

pozivam vas sve da radite sa mnom

to bring more humanity to our working lives.

da unesemo više humanosti u naše radne živote.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)