Why jobs of the future won't feel like work | David Lee

181,540 views ・ 2017-11-03

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:12
So there's a lot of valid concern these days
0
12694
2152
00:14
that our technology is getting so smart
1
14870
2205
00:17
that we've put ourselves on the path to a jobless future.
2
17099
2748
00:21
And I think the example of a self-driving car
3
21502
2152
00:23
is actually the easiest one to see.
4
23678
1674
00:25
So these are going to be fantastic for all kinds of different reasons.
5
25376
3328
00:28
But did you know that "driver" is actually the most common job
6
28728
3438
00:32
in 29 of the 50 US states?
7
32190
1789
00:34
What's going to happen to these jobs when we're no longer driving our cars
8
34862
3478
00:38
or cooking our food
9
38364
1165
00:39
or even diagnosing our own diseases?
10
39553
1959
00:42
Well, a recent study from Forrester Research
11
42495
2377
00:44
goes so far to predict that 25 million jobs
12
44896
3163
00:48
might disappear over the next 10 years.
13
48083
2162
00:51
To put that in perspective,
14
51213
1489
00:52
that's three times as many jobs lost in the aftermath of the financial crisis.
15
52726
4146
00:58
And it's not just blue-collar jobs that are at risk.
16
58426
2472
01:01
On Wall Street and across Silicon Valley, we are seeing tremendous gains
17
61548
3427
01:04
in the quality of analysis and decision-making
18
64999
2182
01:07
because of machine learning.
19
67205
1654
01:08
So even the smartest, highest-paid people will be affected by this change.
20
68883
3524
01:13
What's clear is that no matter what your job is,
21
73534
2670
01:16
at least some, if not all of your work,
22
76228
1972
01:18
is going to be done by a robot or software in the next few years.
23
78224
3392
01:22
And that's exactly why people like Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates
24
82738
3071
01:25
are talking about the need for government-funded minimum income levels.
25
85833
3388
01:29
But if our politicians can't agree on things like health care
26
89245
3342
01:32
or even school lunches,
27
92611
1279
01:33
I just don't see a path where they'll find consensus
28
93914
2430
01:36
on something as big and as expensive as universal basic life income.
29
96368
3326
01:40
Instead, I think the response needs to be led by us in industry.
30
100436
3645
01:44
We have to recognize the change that's ahead of us
31
104105
2524
01:46
and start to design the new kinds of jobs
32
106653
1975
01:48
that will still be relevant in the age of robotics.
33
108652
2695
01:52
The good news is that we have faced down and recovered
34
112719
2753
01:55
two mass extinctions of jobs before.
35
115496
2186
01:58
From 1870 to 1970,
36
118343
2210
02:00
the percent of American workers based on farms fell by 90 percent,
37
120577
4408
02:05
and then again from 1950 to 2010,
38
125009
2545
02:07
the percent of Americans working in factories
39
127578
2143
02:09
fell by 75 percent.
40
129745
1676
02:12
The challenge we face this time, however, is one of time.
41
132390
2954
02:15
We had a hundred years to move from farms to factories,
42
135368
3014
02:18
and then 60 years to fully build out a service economy.
43
138406
2575
02:21
The rate of change today
44
141498
1325
02:22
suggests that we may only have 10 or 15 years to adjust,
45
142847
2974
02:25
and if we don't react fast enough,
46
145845
1703
02:27
that means by the time today's elementary-school students
47
147572
2756
02:30
are college-aged,
48
150352
1885
02:32
we could be living in a world that's robotic,
49
152261
2141
02:34
largely unemployed and stuck in kind of un-great depression.
50
154426
3683
02:39
But I don't think it has to be this way.
51
159617
1939
02:41
You see, I work in innovation,
52
161580
1700
02:43
and part of my job is to shape how large companies apply new technologies.
53
163304
4154
02:48
Certainly some of these technologies
54
168085
1795
02:49
are even specifically designed to replace human workers.
55
169904
2904
02:53
But I believe that if we start taking steps right now
56
173435
2926
02:56
to change the nature of work,
57
176385
1821
02:58
we can not only create environments where people love coming to work
58
178230
3886
03:02
but also generate the innovation that we need
59
182140
2118
03:04
to replace the millions of jobs that will be lost to technology.
60
184282
3173
03:08
I believe that the key to preventing our jobless future
61
188352
3799
03:12
is to rediscover what makes us human,
62
192175
2346
03:14
and to create a new generation of human-centered jobs
63
194545
2958
03:17
that allow us to unlock the hidden talents and passions
64
197527
2606
03:20
that we carry with us every day.
65
200157
1653
03:23
But first, I think it's important to recognize
66
203971
2143
03:26
that we brought this problem on ourselves.
67
206138
2152
03:28
And it's not just because, you know, we are the one building the robots.
68
208314
3457
03:32
But even though most jobs left the factory decades ago,
69
212327
3184
03:35
we still hold on to this factory mindset
70
215535
1937
03:37
of standardization and de-skilling.
71
217496
1959
03:40
We still define jobs around procedural tasks
72
220345
2351
03:42
and then pay people for the number of hours that they perform these tasks.
73
222720
3488
03:46
We've created narrow job definitions
74
226232
1756
03:48
like cashier, loan processor or taxi driver
75
228012
3240
03:51
and then asked people to form entire careers
76
231276
2483
03:53
around these singular tasks.
77
233783
1630
03:56
These choices have left us with actually two dangerous side effects.
78
236071
3533
03:59
The first is that these narrowly defined jobs
79
239628
2750
04:02
will be the first to be displaced by robots,
80
242402
2423
04:04
because single-task robots are just the easiest kinds to build.
81
244849
2985
04:08
But second, we have accidentally made it
82
248601
2393
04:11
so that millions of workers around the world
83
251018
2128
04:13
have unbelievably boring working lives.
84
253170
2310
04:15
(Laughter)
85
255877
1871
04:18
Let's take the example of a call center agent.
86
258247
2402
04:20
Over the last few decades, we brag about lower operating costs
87
260673
3003
04:23
because we've taken most of the need for brainpower
88
263700
2427
04:26
out of the person and put it into the system.
89
266151
2144
04:28
For most of their day, they click on screens,
90
268319
2521
04:30
they read scripts.
91
270864
1201
04:33
They act more like machines than humans.
92
273307
2653
04:37
And unfortunately, over the next few years,
93
277098
2116
04:39
as our technology gets more advanced,
94
279238
1859
04:41
they, along with people like clerks and bookkeepers,
95
281121
2584
04:43
will see the vast majority of their work disappear.
96
283729
2412
04:47
To counteract this, we have to start creating new jobs
97
287315
2704
04:50
that are less centered on the tasks that a person does
98
290043
2539
04:52
and more focused on the skills that a person brings to work.
99
292606
2866
04:56
For example, robots are great at repetitive and constrained work,
100
296209
3387
04:59
but human beings have an amazing ability
101
299620
1949
05:01
to bring together capability with creativity
102
301593
2279
05:03
when faced with problems that we've never seen before.
103
303896
2700
05:06
It's when every day brings a little bit of a surprise
104
306942
2980
05:09
that we have designed work for humans
105
309946
2004
05:11
and not for robots.
106
311974
1269
05:13
Our entrepreneurs and engineers already live in this world,
107
313950
2898
05:16
but so do our nurses and our plumbers
108
316872
2592
05:19
and our therapists.
109
319488
1463
05:21
You know, it's the nature of too many companies and organizations
110
321569
3057
05:24
to just ask people to come to work and do your job.
111
324650
3690
05:28
But if you work is better done by a robot,
112
328364
2186
05:30
or your decisions better made by an AI,
113
330574
2797
05:33
what are you supposed to be doing?
114
333395
1712
05:35
Well, I think for the manager,
115
335833
2484
05:38
we need to realistically think about the tasks that will be disappearing
116
338341
3397
05:41
over the next few years
117
341762
1151
05:42
and start planning for more meaningful, more valuable work that should replace it.
118
342937
3872
05:46
We need to create environments
119
346833
1429
05:48
where both human beings and robots thrive.
120
348286
2239
05:50
I say, let's give more work to the robots,
121
350549
2536
05:53
and let's start with the work that we absolutely hate doing.
122
353109
2903
05:57
Here, robot,
123
357248
1164
05:58
process this painfully idiotic report.
124
358436
1851
06:00
(Laughter)
125
360311
1423
06:01
And move this box. Thank you.
126
361758
1425
06:03
(Laughter)
127
363207
1699
06:04
And for the human beings,
128
364930
1529
06:06
we should follow the advice from Harry Davis at the University of Chicago.
129
366483
3554
06:10
He says we have to make it so that people don't leave too much of themselves
130
370061
3649
06:13
in the trunk of their car.
131
373734
1331
06:15
I mean, human beings are amazing on weekends.
132
375089
2889
06:18
Think about the people that you know and what they do on Saturdays.
133
378002
3144
06:21
They're artists, carpenters, chefs and athletes.
134
381170
2976
06:24
But on Monday, they're back to being Junior HR Specialist
135
384906
3896
06:28
and Systems Analyst 3.
136
388826
2099
06:30
(Laughter)
137
390949
3781
06:34
You know, these narrow job titles not only sound boring,
138
394754
3318
06:38
but they're actually a subtle encouragement
139
398096
2096
06:40
for people to make narrow and boring job contributions.
140
400216
3040
06:43
But I've seen firsthand that when you invite people to be more,
141
403280
3116
06:46
they can amaze us with how much more they can be.
142
406420
2390
06:50
A few years ago, I was working at a large bank
143
410147
2233
06:52
that was trying to bring more innovation into its company culture.
144
412404
3096
06:55
So my team and I designed a prototyping contest
145
415524
2341
06:57
that invited anyone to build anything that they wanted.
146
417889
2970
07:01
We were actually trying to figure out
147
421524
1833
07:03
whether or not the primary limiter to innovation
148
423381
2268
07:05
was a lack of ideas or a lack of talent,
149
425673
2490
07:08
and it turns out it was neither one.
150
428187
1861
07:10
It was an empowerment problem.
151
430072
1755
07:12
And the results of the program were amazing.
152
432518
2242
07:16
We started by inviting people to reenvision
153
436198
2377
07:18
what it is they could bring to a team.
154
438599
2115
07:20
This contest was not only a chance to build anything that you wanted
155
440738
3738
07:24
but also be anything that you wanted.
156
444500
2336
07:26
And when people were no longer limited by their day-to-day job titles,
157
446860
3286
07:30
they felt free to bring all kinds of different skills and talents
158
450170
3147
07:33
to the problems that they were trying to solve.
159
453341
2486
07:35
We saw technology people being designers, marketing people being architects,
160
455851
3910
07:39
and even finance people showing off their ability to write jokes.
161
459785
3365
07:43
(Laughter)
162
463427
1150
07:44
We ran this program twice,
163
464601
1405
07:46
and each time more than 400 people brought their unexpected talents to work
164
466030
3796
07:49
and solved problems that they had been wanting to solve for years.
165
469850
3139
07:53
Collectively, they created millions of dollars of value,
166
473310
3019
07:56
building things like a better touch-tone system for call centers,
167
476353
4565
08:00
easier desktop tools for branches
168
480942
1668
08:02
and even a thank you card system
169
482634
1525
08:04
that has become a cornerstone of the employee working experience.
170
484183
3314
08:07
Over the course of the eight weeks,
171
487521
1803
08:09
people flexed muscles that they never dreamed of using at work.
172
489348
3533
08:14
People learned new skills,
173
494173
1577
08:15
they met new people,
174
495774
2368
08:18
and at the end, somebody pulled me aside and said,
175
498166
2793
08:20
"I have to tell you,
176
500983
1569
08:22
the last few weeks has been one of the most intense,
177
502576
2776
08:25
hardest working experiences of my entire life,
178
505376
3279
08:28
but not one second of it felt like work."
179
508679
2041
08:31
And that's the key.
180
511900
1298
08:33
For those few weeks, people got to be creators and innovators.
181
513222
3710
08:38
They had been dreaming of solutions
182
518631
1667
08:40
to problems that had been bugging them for years,
183
520322
2484
08:42
and this was a chance to turn those dreams into a reality.
184
522830
2854
08:46
And that dreaming is an important part of what separates us from machines.
185
526489
4442
08:50
For now, our machines do not get frustrated,
186
530955
3018
08:53
they do not get annoyed,
187
533997
1407
08:55
and they certainly don't imagine.
188
535428
2260
08:57
But we, as human beings --
189
537712
1699
08:59
we feel pain,
190
539435
1207
09:00
we get frustrated.
191
540666
1400
09:02
And it's when we're most annoyed and most curious
192
542090
3116
09:05
that we're motivated to dig into a problem and create change.
193
545230
3263
09:09
Our imaginations are the birthplace of new products, new services,
194
549366
3910
09:13
and even new industries.
195
553300
1233
09:15
I believe that the jobs of the future
196
555296
1802
09:17
will come from the minds of people
197
557122
1713
09:18
who today we call analysts and specialists,
198
558859
2716
09:21
but only if we give them the freedom and protection that they need to grow
199
561599
3478
09:25
into becoming explorers and inventors.
200
565101
2469
09:28
If we really want to robot-proof our jobs,
201
568534
2143
09:30
we, as leaders, need to get out of the mindset
202
570701
2235
09:32
of telling people what to do
203
572960
1830
09:34
and instead start asking them what problems they're inspired to solve
204
574814
3821
09:38
and what talents they want to bring to work.
205
578659
2365
09:41
Because when you can bring your Saturday self to work on Wednesdays,
206
581501
3443
09:44
you'll look forward to Mondays more,
207
584968
1994
09:46
and those feelings that we have about Mondays
208
586986
2682
09:49
are part of what makes us human.
209
589692
1758
09:52
And as we redesign work for an era of intelligent machines,
210
592287
3008
09:55
I invite you all to work alongside me
211
595319
2216
09:57
to bring more humanity to our working lives.
212
597559
2642
10:00
Thank you.
213
600225
1151
10:01
(Applause)
214
601400
3401
About this website

This site will introduce you to YouTube videos that are useful for learning English. You will see English lessons taught by top-notch teachers from around the world. Double-click on the English subtitles displayed on each video page to play the video from there. The subtitles scroll in sync with the video playback. If you have any comments or requests, please contact us using this contact form.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7