Why jobs of the future won't feel like work | David Lee

181,361 views ・ 2017-11-03

TED


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00:12
So there's a lot of valid concern these days
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that our technology is getting so smart
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that we've put ourselves on the path to a jobless future.
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And I think the example of a self-driving car
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is actually the easiest one to see.
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So these are going to be fantastic for all kinds of different reasons.
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But did you know that "driver" is actually the most common job
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in 29 of the 50 US states?
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What's going to happen to these jobs when we're no longer driving our cars
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or cooking our food
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or even diagnosing our own diseases?
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Well, a recent study from Forrester Research
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goes so far to predict that 25 million jobs
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might disappear over the next 10 years.
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To put that in perspective,
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that's three times as many jobs lost in the aftermath of the financial crisis.
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And it's not just blue-collar jobs that are at risk.
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On Wall Street and across Silicon Valley, we are seeing tremendous gains
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in the quality of analysis and decision-making
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because of machine learning.
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So even the smartest, highest-paid people will be affected by this change.
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What's clear is that no matter what your job is,
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at least some, if not all of your work,
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is going to be done by a robot or software in the next few years.
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And that's exactly why people like Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates
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are talking about the need for government-funded minimum income levels.
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But if our politicians can't agree on things like health care
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or even school lunches,
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I just don't see a path where they'll find consensus
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on something as big and as expensive as universal basic life income.
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Instead, I think the response needs to be led by us in industry.
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We have to recognize the change that's ahead of us
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and start to design the new kinds of jobs
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that will still be relevant in the age of robotics.
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The good news is that we have faced down and recovered
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two mass extinctions of jobs before.
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From 1870 to 1970,
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the percent of American workers based on farms fell by 90 percent,
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and then again from 1950 to 2010,
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the percent of Americans working in factories
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fell by 75 percent.
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The challenge we face this time, however, is one of time.
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We had a hundred years to move from farms to factories,
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and then 60 years to fully build out a service economy.
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The rate of change today
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suggests that we may only have 10 or 15 years to adjust,
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and if we don't react fast enough,
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that means by the time today's elementary-school students
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are college-aged,
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we could be living in a world that's robotic,
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largely unemployed and stuck in kind of un-great depression.
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But I don't think it has to be this way.
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You see, I work in innovation,
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and part of my job is to shape how large companies apply new technologies.
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Certainly some of these technologies
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are even specifically designed to replace human workers.
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But I believe that if we start taking steps right now
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to change the nature of work,
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we can not only create environments where people love coming to work
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but also generate the innovation that we need
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to replace the millions of jobs that will be lost to technology.
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I believe that the key to preventing our jobless future
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is to rediscover what makes us human,
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and to create a new generation of human-centered jobs
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that allow us to unlock the hidden talents and passions
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that we carry with us every day.
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But first, I think it's important to recognize
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that we brought this problem on ourselves.
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And it's not just because, you know, we are the one building the robots.
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But even though most jobs left the factory decades ago,
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we still hold on to this factory mindset
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of standardization and de-skilling.
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We still define jobs around procedural tasks
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and then pay people for the number of hours that they perform these tasks.
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We've created narrow job definitions
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like cashier, loan processor or taxi driver
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and then asked people to form entire careers
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around these singular tasks.
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These choices have left us with actually two dangerous side effects.
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The first is that these narrowly defined jobs
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will be the first to be displaced by robots,
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because single-task robots are just the easiest kinds to build.
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But second, we have accidentally made it
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so that millions of workers around the world
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have unbelievably boring working lives.
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(Laughter)
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Let's take the example of a call center agent.
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Over the last few decades, we brag about lower operating costs
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because we've taken most of the need for brainpower
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out of the person and put it into the system.
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For most of their day, they click on screens,
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they read scripts.
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They act more like machines than humans.
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And unfortunately, over the next few years,
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as our technology gets more advanced,
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they, along with people like clerks and bookkeepers,
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will see the vast majority of their work disappear.
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To counteract this, we have to start creating new jobs
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that are less centered on the tasks that a person does
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and more focused on the skills that a person brings to work.
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For example, robots are great at repetitive and constrained work,
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but human beings have an amazing ability
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to bring together capability with creativity
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when faced with problems that we've never seen before.
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It's when every day brings a little bit of a surprise
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that we have designed work for humans
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and not for robots.
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Our entrepreneurs and engineers already live in this world,
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but so do our nurses and our plumbers
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and our therapists.
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You know, it's the nature of too many companies and organizations
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to just ask people to come to work and do your job.
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But if you work is better done by a robot,
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or your decisions better made by an AI,
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what are you supposed to be doing?
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Well, I think for the manager,
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we need to realistically think about the tasks that will be disappearing
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over the next few years
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and start planning for more meaningful, more valuable work that should replace it.
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We need to create environments
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where both human beings and robots thrive.
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I say, let's give more work to the robots,
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and let's start with the work that we absolutely hate doing.
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Here, robot,
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process this painfully idiotic report.
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(Laughter)
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And move this box. Thank you.
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(Laughter)
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And for the human beings,
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we should follow the advice from Harry Davis at the University of Chicago.
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He says we have to make it so that people don't leave too much of themselves
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in the trunk of their car.
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I mean, human beings are amazing on weekends.
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Think about the people that you know and what they do on Saturdays.
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They're artists, carpenters, chefs and athletes.
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But on Monday, they're back to being Junior HR Specialist
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and Systems Analyst 3.
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(Laughter)
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You know, these narrow job titles not only sound boring,
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but they're actually a subtle encouragement
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for people to make narrow and boring job contributions.
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But I've seen firsthand that when you invite people to be more,
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they can amaze us with how much more they can be.
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A few years ago, I was working at a large bank
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that was trying to bring more innovation into its company culture.
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So my team and I designed a prototyping contest
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that invited anyone to build anything that they wanted.
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We were actually trying to figure out
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whether or not the primary limiter to innovation
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was a lack of ideas or a lack of talent,
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and it turns out it was neither one.
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It was an empowerment problem.
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And the results of the program were amazing.
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We started by inviting people to reenvision
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what it is they could bring to a team.
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This contest was not only a chance to build anything that you wanted
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but also be anything that you wanted.
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And when people were no longer limited by their day-to-day job titles,
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they felt free to bring all kinds of different skills and talents
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to the problems that they were trying to solve.
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We saw technology people being designers, marketing people being architects,
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and even finance people showing off their ability to write jokes.
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(Laughter)
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We ran this program twice,
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and each time more than 400 people brought their unexpected talents to work
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and solved problems that they had been wanting to solve for years.
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Collectively, they created millions of dollars of value,
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building things like a better touch-tone system for call centers,
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easier desktop tools for branches
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and even a thank you card system
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that has become a cornerstone of the employee working experience.
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Over the course of the eight weeks,
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people flexed muscles that they never dreamed of using at work.
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People learned new skills,
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they met new people,
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and at the end, somebody pulled me aside and said,
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"I have to tell you,
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the last few weeks has been one of the most intense,
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hardest working experiences of my entire life,
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but not one second of it felt like work."
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And that's the key.
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For those few weeks, people got to be creators and innovators.
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They had been dreaming of solutions
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to problems that had been bugging them for years,
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and this was a chance to turn those dreams into a reality.
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And that dreaming is an important part of what separates us from machines.
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For now, our machines do not get frustrated,
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they do not get annoyed,
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and they certainly don't imagine.
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But we, as human beings --
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we feel pain,
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we get frustrated.
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And it's when we're most annoyed and most curious
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that we're motivated to dig into a problem and create change.
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Our imaginations are the birthplace of new products, new services,
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and even new industries.
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I believe that the jobs of the future
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will come from the minds of people
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who today we call analysts and specialists,
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but only if we give them the freedom and protection that they need to grow
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into becoming explorers and inventors.
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If we really want to robot-proof our jobs,
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we, as leaders, need to get out of the mindset
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of telling people what to do
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and instead start asking them what problems they're inspired to solve
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and what talents they want to bring to work.
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Because when you can bring your Saturday self to work on Wednesdays,
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you'll look forward to Mondays more,
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and those feelings that we have about Mondays
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are part of what makes us human.
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And as we redesign work for an era of intelligent machines,
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I invite you all to work alongside me
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to bring more humanity to our working lives.
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Thank you.
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(Applause)
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