Why jobs of the future won't feel like work | David Lee

Prevoditelj: Mira Lenžer Newbould Recezent: Sanda L

So there's a lot of valid concern these days

Ovih dana mnogi opravdano brinu

that our technology is getting so smart

da tehnologija postaje toliko pametna

that we've put ourselves on the path to a jobless future.

i da smo krenuli ka budućnosti bez posla.

And I think the example of a self-driving car

Mislim da je samovozeći automobil

is actually the easiest one to see.

najočitiji primjer.

So these are going to be fantastic for all kinds of different reasons.

Bit će on fantastičan iz brojnih razloga.

But did you know that "driver" is actually the most common job

No, jeste li znali da je "vozač" najčešće zanimanje

in 29 of the 50 US states?

u 29 od 50 američkih država?

What's going to happen to these jobs when we're no longer driving our cars

Što će biti s tim radnim mjestima kad više ne budemo vozili,

or cooking our food

ili kuhali,

or even diagnosing our own diseases?

ili pak dijagnosticirali svoje bolesti?

Well, a recent study from Forrester Research

Nedavno se u istraživanju Forrester Research-a

goes so far to predict that 25 million jobs

predvidjelo da čak 25 milijuna radnih mjesta

might disappear over the next 10 years.

možda nestane u narednih 10 godina.

To put that in perspective,

Drugim riječima,

that's three times as many jobs lost in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

radi se o tri puta više izgubljenih radnih mjesta nego nakon financijske krize.

And it's not just blue-collar jobs that are at risk.

I nisu ugrožena samo radnička mjesta.

On Wall Street and across Silicon Valley, we are seeing tremendous gains

Na Wall Streetu i u Silicijskoj dolini ostvaruje se ogroman napredak

in the quality of analysis and decision-making

u kvaliteti analize i donošenju odluka

because of machine learning.

zahvaljujući strojnom učenju.

So even the smartest, highest-paid people will be affected by this change.

Stoga će promjena utjecati čak i na one najpametnije i s najboljom plaćom.

What's clear is that no matter what your job is,

Jasno je da, bez obzira na to čime se bavite,

at least some, if not all of your work,

dio vašeg posla, ako ne i sav vaš posao,

is going to be done by a robot or software in the next few years.

obavljat će robot ili software u narednih nekoliko godina.

And that's exactly why people like Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates

Upravo stoga ljudi poput Marka Zuckerberga i Billa Gatesa

are talking about the need for government-funded minimum income levels.

govore o potrebi za razinama minimalnog prihoda kojeg financira vlada.

But if our politicians can't agree on things like health care

No, ako se naši političari ne mogu dogovoriti ni oko liječničke skrbi,

or even school lunches,

ili ručka u školama,

I just don't see a path where they'll find consensus

ne vidim na koji će način postići dogovor o nečemu

on something as big and as expensive as universal basic life income.

toliko značajnom i skupom kao što je jedinstveni osnovni životni prihod.

Instead, I think the response needs to be led by us in industry.

Umjesto toga, mislim da odgovor trebamo ponuditi mi u industriji.

We have to recognize the change that's ahead of us

Moramo prihvatiti činjenicu da je promjena neizbježna

and start to design the new kinds of jobs

i početi stvarati nova radna mjesta

that will still be relevant in the age of robotics.

koja će biti održiva i u eri robotike.

The good news is that we have faced down and recovered

Dobra je vijest da smo već susreli i oporavili se

two mass extinctions of jobs before.

od dva razdoblja masovnog izumiranja radnih mjesta.

From 1870 to 1970,

Od 1870. do 1970.

the percent of American workers based on farms fell by 90 percent,

postotak američkih radnika na farmama pao je za 90 posto,

and then again from 1950 to 2010,

zatim od 1950. do 2010.

the percent of Americans working in factories

postotak američkih radnika u tvornicama

fell by 75 percent.

pao je za 75 posto.

The challenge we face this time, however, is one of time.

Ipak, izazov s kojim se ovog puta suočavamo tiče se vremena.

We had a hundred years to move from farms to factories,

Imali smo stotinu godina za prijelaz s farmi na tvornice,

and then 60 years to fully build out a service economy.

a zatim 60 godina za potpunu izgradnju uslužnog gospodarstva.

The rate of change today

Stopa promjene danas

suggests that we may only have 10 or 15 years to adjust,

ukazuje da možda imamo samo 10 ili 15 godina za prilagodbu,

and if we don't react fast enough,

i ako ne reagiramo dovoljno brzo,

that means by the time today's elementary-school students

do trenutka kada današnji osnovnoškolci

are college-aged,

krenu na fakultet,

we could be living in a world that's robotic,

mogli bismo živjeti u svijetu robotike,

largely unemployed and stuck in kind of un-great depression.

s velikom stopom nezaposlenosti i u velikoj krizi.

But I don't think it has to be this way.

No, ja mislim da ne mora tako završiti.

You see, I work in innovation,

Vidite, ja se bavim inovacijom

and part of my job is to shape how large companies apply new technologies.

te djelomice i time kako velike kompanije primjenjuju nove tehnologije.

Certainly some of these technologies

Jasno, neke od tih tehnologija

are even specifically designed to replace human workers.

čak su posebno osmišljene kao zamjena za ljudsku radnu snagu.

But I believe that if we start taking steps right now

No, vjerujem da ako odmah počnemo djelovati

to change the nature of work,

i mijenjati prirodu posla,

we can not only create environments where people love coming to work

ne samo da možemo stvoriti sredine u kojima će ljudi voljeti ići na posao,

but also generate the innovation that we need

već možemo stvoriti i inovaciju kojom će se

to replace the millions of jobs that will be lost to technology.

nadoknaditi milijuni radnih mjesta izgubljenih zbog tehnologije.

I believe that the key to preventing our jobless future

Vjerujem da ključ sprečavanja budućnosti bez posla

is to rediscover what makes us human,

leži u otkrivanju onoga što nas čini ljudima

and to create a new generation of human-centered jobs

te u stvaranju novog naraštaja poslova usredotočenih na ljude,

that allow us to unlock the hidden talents and passions

pomoću kojih oslobađamo skrivene talente i strasti

that we carry with us every day.

koje stalno nosimo u sebi.

But first, I think it's important to recognize

No, prije toga, mislim da je važno priznati

that we brought this problem on ourselves.

da smo si te probleme sami stvorili.

And it's not just because, you know, we are the one building the robots.

I to ne samo zato jer smo mi ti koji izrađujemo robote.

But even though most jobs left the factory decades ago,

Iako se većina poslova već desetljećima ne odvija u tvornici,

we still hold on to this factory mindset

i dalje se držimo tvorničkog mentaliteta

of standardization and de-skilling.

normizacije i dekvalifikacije.

We still define jobs around procedural tasks

I dalje posao definiramo oko proceduralnih zadataka,

and then pay people for the number of hours that they perform these tasks.

a zatim radnike plaćamo obzirom na broj sati u kojem obave te zadatke.

We've created narrow job definitions

Imamo stroge definicije radnih mjesta

like cashier, loan processor or taxi driver

poput blagajnika, taksista, ili referenta kredita,

and then asked people to form entire careers

a zatim od ljudi tražimo da cijelu karijeru izgrade

around these singular tasks.

oko tih pojedinačnih zadataka.

These choices have left us with actually two dangerous side effects.

Te odluke sa sobom nose dvije opasne posljedice.

The first is that these narrowly defined jobs

Prvo, takva strogo definirana radna mjesta

will be the first to be displaced by robots,

roboti će prva preuzeti,

because single-task robots are just the easiest kinds to build.

jer se roboti s jednom funkcijom najjednostavnije izrađuju.

But second, we have accidentally made it

Drugo, sasvim slučajno uspjeli smo

so that millions of workers around the world

radni vijek milijuna radnika u cijelom svijetu

have unbelievably boring working lives.

učiniti nevjerojatno dosadnim.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Let's take the example of a call center agent.

Uzmimo, primjerice, agenta u pozivnom centru.

Over the last few decades, we brag about lower operating costs

Posljednjih se desetljeća dičimo niskim operativnim troškovima

because we've taken most of the need for brainpower

jer smo potrebu za korištenjem mozga

out of the person and put it into the system.

prebacili s osobe na sustav.

For most of their day, they click on screens,

Veći dio dana radnici tipkaju po ekranima,

they read scripts.

čitaju upute.

They act more like machines than humans.

Više su nalik strojevima nego ljudima.

And unfortunately, over the next few years,

I, nažalost, u narednih nekoliko godina,

as our technology gets more advanced,

kako tehnologija bude napredovala,

they, along with people like clerks and bookkeepers,

oni će, kao i službenici te knjigovođe,

will see the vast majority of their work disappear.

svjedočiti nestajanju ogromne većine svog posla.

To counteract this, we have to start creating new jobs

To moramo spriječiti stvaranjem novih radnih mjesta,

that are less centered on the tasks that a person does

manje usredotočenih na zadatke koje osoba obavlja,

and more focused on the skills that a person brings to work.

a više na vještine kojima ta osoba pridonosi poslu.

For example, robots are great at repetitive and constrained work,

Roboti su izvrsni za poslove koji su ograničeni i ponavljaju se,

but human beings have an amazing ability

no ljudska bića imaju zapanjujuću moć

to bring together capability with creativity

spajanja sposobnosti s kreativnošću

when faced with problems that we've never seen before.

pri suočavanju s dotad neviđenim problemom.

It's when every day brings a little bit of a surprise

Oni poslovi koji svakog dana donose malu dozu iznenađenja

that we have designed work for humans

osmišljeni su za ljude,

and not for robots.

ne za robote.

Our entrepreneurs and engineers already live in this world,

Naši poduzetnici i inženjeri već žive u takvom svijetu,

but so do our nurses and our plumbers

kao i medicinske sestre ili vodoinstalateri,

and our therapists.

ili pak psihijatri.

You know, it's the nature of too many companies and organizations

Znate, prirodno je za brojne kompanije i organizacije

to just ask people to come to work and do your job.

da od zaposlenika traže da jednostavno dođu na posao i obavljaju ga.

But if you work is better done by a robot,

No, ako vaš posao bolje obavlja robot,

or your decisions better made by an AI,

ili vaše odluke bolje donosi umjetna inteligencija (UI),

what are you supposed to be doing?

što biste Vi trebali raditi?

Well, I think for the manager,

Mislim da za menadžere

we need to realistically think about the tasks that will be disappearing

realistično moramo razmišljati o zadacima koji će nestajati

over the next few years

u narednim godinama

and start planning for more meaningful, more valuable work that should replace it.

te početi planirati smislenije, vrednije poslove koji će ih zamijeniti.

We need to create environments

Moramo stvoriti sredine

where both human beings and robots thrive.

u kojima mogu rasti i ljudi i roboti.

I say, let's give more work to the robots,

Ja kažem, dajmo više posla robotima,

and let's start with the work that we absolutely hate doing.

i to počevši od posla koji mrzimo više od svega.

Here, robot,

Evo, robote,

process this painfully idiotic report.

obradi ovo bolno idiotsko izvješće.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

And move this box. Thank you.

I pomakni ovu kutiju. Hvala.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

And for the human beings,

A što se ljudi tiče,

we should follow the advice from Harry Davis at the University of Chicago.

trebali bismo slijediti savjet Harryja Davisa sa Sveučilišta u Chicagu.

On tvrdi kako treba težiti tomu da ljudi ne ostave velik dio

He says we have to make it so that people don't leave too much of themselves

in the trunk of their car.

svog potencijala neiskorištenim.

I mean, human beings are amazing on weekends.

Želim reći, ljudska bića vikendom su čudesna.

Think about the people that you know and what they do on Saturdays.

Pomislite samo na ljude koje poznajete i što oni čine subotom.

They're artists, carpenters, chefs and athletes.

Postaju umjetnici, stolari, vrsni kuhari i sportaši.

But on Monday, they're back to being Junior HR Specialist

No, ponedjeljkom ponovno postaju mlađi specijalisti za ljudske resurse

and Systems Analyst 3.

i sistemski analitičari 3.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

You know, these narrow job titles not only sound boring,

Vidite, ti strogi nazivi radnog mjesta ne samo da zvuče dosadno,

but they're actually a subtle encouragement

već su i svojevrstan poticaj osobama

for people to make narrow and boring job contributions.

da daju monoton i ograničen doprinos na radnom mjestu.

But I've seen firsthand that when you invite people to be more,

No, iz prve ruke uvjerio sam se da kad osobu potaknete na više,

they can amaze us with how much more they can be.

može nas iznenaditi onime što ima za ponuditi.

A few years ago, I was working at a large bank

Prije nekoliko godina radio sam u velikoj banci

that was trying to bring more innovation into its company culture.

koja je pokušavala uvesti inovaciju u kulturu kompanije.

So my team and I designed a prototyping contest

Moj tim i ja osmislili smo natječaj za izradu prototipova

that invited anyone to build anything that they wanted.

u kojem smo sve pozvali da izrade štogod žele.

We were actually trying to figure out

Zapravo smo pokušali otkriti

je li do tada inovaciju sprečavao

whether or not the primary limiter to innovation

was a lack of ideas or a lack of talent,

nedostatak ideja ili nedostatak talenta,

and it turns out it was neither one.

a otkrili smo da nije bilo nijedno.

It was an empowerment problem.

Problem je bio u dodjeli ovlasti.

And the results of the program were amazing.

I rezultati programa bili su nevjerojatni.

We started by inviting people to reenvision

Prvo smo pozvali ljude da se ponovno prisjete

what it is they could bring to a team.

čime mogu pridonijeti timu.

This contest was not only a chance to build anything that you wanted

Natječaj je bio prilika ne samo da svatko izradi ono što želi,

but also be anything that you wanted.

već i da bude ono što želi.

And when people were no longer limited by their day-to-day job titles,

Kada ljudi više nisu bili ograničeni nazivima svojih radnih mjesta,

osjećali su se slobodnima koristiti razne vještine i talente

they felt free to bring all kinds of different skills and talents

i time pridonijeti rješavanju problema.

to the problems that they were trying to solve.

We saw technology people being designers, marketing people being architects,

Tehnolozi su postali projektanti, oni iz marketinga arhitekti,

and even finance people showing off their ability to write jokes.

čak su i oni iz financija pokazali svoje umijeće u smišljanju viceva.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

We ran this program twice,

Program smo proveli dva puta,

and each time more than 400 people brought their unexpected talents to work

i svaki put više od 400 ljudi iznijelo je na stol svoje neočekivane talente

and solved problems that they had been wanting to solve for years.

i riješilo probleme koje su godinama željeli riješiti.

Collectively, they created millions of dollars of value,

Zajedno su stvorili milijune dolara vrijednosti,

building things like a better touch-tone system for call centers,

izradili stvari poput boljeg tonskog sustava za pozivne centre,

easier desktop tools for branches

lakših radnih alata za podružnice,

and even a thank you card system

čak i sustava e-čestitki,

that has become a cornerstone of the employee working experience.

koji je postao kamen temeljac radnog iskustva zaposlenika.

Over the course of the eight weeks,

Tijekom osam tjedana,

people flexed muscles that they never dreamed of using at work.

svi su zaposlili mišiće koje nisu ni sanjali da će ikad koristiti na poslu.

People learned new skills,

Svladali su nove vještine,

they met new people,

sklopili nova poznanstva,

and at the end, somebody pulled me aside and said,

i na kraju, netko me povukao u stranu i rekao,

"I have to tell you,

"Moram priznati,

the last few weeks has been one of the most intense,

posljednji tjedni bili su jedno od najintenzivnijih,

hardest working experiences of my entire life,

najtežih radnih iskustava u cijelom mom životu,

but not one second of it felt like work."

no ni na sekundu nisam imao osjećaj da radim."

And that's the key.

I u tome je ključ svega.

For those few weeks, people got to be creators and innovators.

Tih su nekoliko tjedana ljudi bili stvaratelji i inovatori.

They had been dreaming of solutions

Sanjali su o rješenjima problema

to problems that had been bugging them for years,

koji su ih mučili godinama

and this was a chance to turn those dreams into a reality.

i ovo je bila prilika da te snove pretvore u stvarnost.

And that dreaming is an important part of what separates us from machines.

Upravo su ti snovi ono po čemu se razlikujemo od strojeva.

For now, our machines do not get frustrated,

Strojeve još uvijek ne možemo isfrustrirati,

they do not get annoyed,

iziritirati,

and they certainly don't imagine.

a zasigurno nisu sposobni ni zamišljati.

But we, as human beings --

No, mi kao ljudska bića,

we feel pain,

osjećamo bol

we get frustrated.

i frustraciju.

And it's when we're most annoyed and most curious

I upravo kada smo najuzrujaniji i najradoznaliji,

that we're motivated to dig into a problem and create change.

motivirani smo da istražimo problem i promijenimo stvari.

Our imaginations are the birthplace of new products, new services,

Naša mašta je mjesto gdje se rađaju novi proizvodi i usluge,

and even new industries.

čak i nove industrije.

I believe that the jobs of the future

Vjerujem da će poslove budućnosti

will come from the minds of people

osmisliti ljudi

who today we call analysts and specialists,

koje danas nazivamo analitičarima i specijalistima,

but only if we give them the freedom and protection that they need to grow

no, samo ako dobiju slobodu i zaštitu koji su im potrebni da rastu

into becoming explorers and inventors.

i postanu istraživači i izumitelji.

If we really want to robot-proof our jobs,

Ako doista želimo radna mjesta otporna na robote,

we, as leaders, need to get out of the mindset

mi, kao vođe, moramo prestati

of telling people what to do

ljudima naređivati što da rade

and instead start asking them what problems they're inspired to solve

i umjesto toga pitati ih koje probleme osjećaju da mogu riješiti

and what talents they want to bring to work.

te koje talente pritom žele primijeniti.

Because when you can bring your Saturday self to work on Wednesdays,

Jer kada u srijedu na posao možeš dovesti sebe iz vikend izdanja,

you'll look forward to Mondays more,

više ćeš se radovati ponedjeljku,

and those feelings that we have about Mondays

a onaj osjećaj koji nas preplavljuje ponedjeljkom,

are part of what makes us human.

dio je onoga što nas čini ljudima.

And as we redesign work for an era of intelligent machines,

I dok radimo na redizajnu posla u eri inteligentnih strojeva,

I invite you all to work alongside me

pozivam vas da zajedno sa mnom

to bring more humanity to our working lives.

donesete više humanosti u naše radne živote.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)