Why jobs of the future won't feel like work | David Lee

翻译人员: edukm ps 校对人员: Yolanda Zhang

So there's a lot of valid concern these days

当今有许多实实在在的担心

that our technology is getting so smart

技术正在变得如此智能

that we've put ourselves on the path to a jobless future.

我们几乎是在把自己引向失业

And I think the example of a self-driving car

自动驾驶汽车

is actually the easiest one to see.

是其中最浅显的一个例子

So these are going to be fantastic for all kinds of different reasons.

不管怎样 自动驾驶都是非常棒的事情

But did you know that "driver" is actually the most common job

但你是否知道 在美国50个州其中的29个

in 29 of the 50 US states?

司机都是最普遍的职业

What's going to happen to these jobs when we're no longer driving our cars

当我们不再需要司机驾驶汽车 也不需要人来烹饪食物

or cooking our food

甚至不需要医生来诊断疾病

or even diagnosing our own diseases?

这些工作岗位将何去何从呢

Well, a recent study from Forrester Research

一个来自弗雷斯特研究的最新研究

goes so far to predict that 25 million jobs

甚至预计有两千五百万个工作

might disappear over the next 10 years.

可能会在接下来的十年内消失

To put that in perspective,

换个方式说

that's three times as many jobs lost in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

这相当于金融危机之后 消失的职业数量的三倍

And it's not just blue-collar jobs that are at risk.

而且不只是蓝领职业有消失的危险

On Wall Street and across Silicon Valley, we are seeing tremendous gains

放眼整个华尔街和硅谷 机器学习在

in the quality of analysis and decision-making

分析和决策中的应用

because of machine learning.

均取得了巨大的成就

So even the smartest, highest-paid people will be affected by this change.

即便是最聪明 最高薪的人 也会被这个改变所影响

What's clear is that no matter what your job is,

很明显的是无论你的职业是什么

at least some, if not all of your work,

即便不是全部 也会有一部分

is going to be done by a robot or software in the next few years.

会在接下来的几年里 被机器人或软件所取代

And that's exactly why people like Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates

而这恰恰是像马克·扎克伯格 和比尔·盖茨这样的人

are talking about the need for government-funded minimum income levels.

在讨论政府需要保障人们 最低收入水平的原因

But if our politicians can't agree on things like health care

但如果政客们连医保 学校午餐之类的事情

or even school lunches,

都无法达成一致

I just don't see a path where they'll find consensus

我不觉得他们能在这样

on something as big and as expensive as universal basic life income.

巨大且昂贵的全民基本 生活保障的事情上达成一致

Instead, I think the response needs to be led by us in industry.

反而我认为应该由 我们行业自身的人去引导

We have to recognize the change that's ahead of us

我们要意识到前方的变化

and start to design the new kinds of jobs

并着手设计新的工作形式

that will still be relevant in the age of robotics.

使其在机器时代仍具有意义

The good news is that we have faced down and recovered

好消息是我们之前经历过

two mass extinctions of jobs before.

两次大的失业潮和经济复苏

From 1870 to 1970,

1870年到1970年间

the percent of American workers based on farms fell by 90 percent,

在农场工作的美国工人 数量下降了90%

and then again from 1950 to 2010,

而从1950年到2010年

the percent of Americans working in factories

在工厂里的美国工人数量

fell by 75 percent.

下降了75%

The challenge we face this time, however, is one of time.

而我们这次面临的挑战是“时间”

We had a hundred years to move from farms to factories,

我们有100年的时间从农场转向工厂

and then 60 years to fully build out a service economy.

又花了60年去建设服务业经济

The rate of change today

如今的变化速度

suggests that we may only have 10 or 15 years to adjust,

意味着我们只有10到15年来调整

and if we don't react fast enough,

如果我们不尽快作出反应

that means by the time today's elementary-school students

那就意味着当今天的小学生

are college-aged,

上大学的时候

we could be living in a world that's robotic,

我们就会生活在一个充斥着机器人

largely unemployed and stuck in kind of un-great depression.

并伴随大量失业人群的萧条世界里了

But I don't think it has to be this way.

但我不认为这样的结果是注定的

You see, I work in innovation,

我的工作是革新

and part of my job is to shape how large companies apply new technologies.

我的部分工作是帮助 大公司应用新的技术

Certainly some of these technologies

而其中有些技术

are even specifically designed to replace human workers.

就是专门设计来取代人类工作者

But I believe that if we start taking steps right now

但是我相信如果我们现在开始着手

to change the nature of work,

去改变工作的本质

we can not only create environments where people love coming to work

我们不仅可以创造 人们所热爱的工作环境

but also generate the innovation that we need

而且还可以产生我们所需要的创新

to replace the millions of jobs that will be lost to technology.

来代替终将流失于技术的数百万职业

I believe that the key to preventing our jobless future

我认为预防我们未来失业的关键在于

is to rediscover what makes us human,

重新发现人类自身

and to create a new generation of human-centered jobs

并创造新一代的以人为本的职业

that allow us to unlock the hidden talents and passions

来释放人类身上

that we carry with us every day.

隐藏的天赋和激情

But first, I think it's important to recognize

但首先我认为很重要的 是需要认识到

that we brought this problem on ourselves.

问题是我们自己造成的

And it's not just because, you know, we are the one building the robots.

不仅仅是因为我们创造了机器人

But even though most jobs left the factory decades ago,

尽管几十年间很多工作 就已经与工厂无关

we still hold on to this factory mindset

我们却仍然固守着工厂

of standardization and de-skilling.

那种去技能化的标准化思维

We still define jobs around procedural tasks

我们仍围绕程序化的任务来定义工作

and then pay people for the number of hours that they perform these tasks.

然后按照人们执行任务的 小时数付他们薪水

We've created narrow job definitions

我们创造了狭隘的工作定义

like cashier, loan processor or taxi driver

比如收银员 贷款业务员 出租车司机

and then asked people to form entire careers

然后让人们围着这些单调的任务

around these singular tasks.

去打造整个职业生涯

These choices have left us with actually two dangerous side effects.

这些选择事实上带给 我们两个危险的副作用

The first is that these narrowly defined jobs

首先 这些被狭隘定义的工作

will be the first to be displaced by robots,

会最先被机器人替代

because single-task robots are just the easiest kinds to build.

因为单任务的机器人是最容易制造的

But second, we have accidentally made it

其次 这种不经意间的选择

so that millions of workers around the world

让全世界成千上万的人

have unbelievably boring working lives.

从事着难以置信的无聊工作

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Let's take the example of a call center agent.

我们来看个呼叫中心客服的例子

Over the last few decades, we brag about lower operating costs

过去的几十年间 我们夸耀着更低的运行费用

because we've taken most of the need for brainpower

因为我们把对脑力的大部分要求

从人身上拿出来放进了应答系统中

out of the person and put it into the system.

For most of their day, they click on screens,

所以在一天的大多数时间里 他们只是在点击着屏幕

they read scripts.

念念稿子

They act more like machines than humans.

行为模式更像机器而不是人类

And unfortunately, over the next few years,

而且不幸的是 在接下来的几年里

as our technology gets more advanced,

随着我们的技术变得更加先进

they, along with people like clerks and bookkeepers,

他们以及诸如书记员和 簿记员那样的人

will see the vast majority of their work disappear.

将会面临大量工作机会的丧失

To counteract this, we have to start creating new jobs

要应对这点 我们必须开始创造新的职业

that are less centered on the tasks that a person does

那种不那么以人的任务为中心

and more focused on the skills that a person brings to work.

而是更集中在人的 工作技巧层面的职业

For example, robots are great at repetitive and constrained work,

比如机器更适合重复性和受限的工作

but human beings have an amazing ability

但是人类具有不可思议的

to bring together capability with creativity

富有创造力的能力

when faced with problems that we've never seen before.

去应对那些从未遇到的新问题

It's when every day brings a little bit of a surprise

当我们给人类而非机器人

that we have designed work for humans

设计工作时 每天都可以

and not for robots.

带来一点惊喜

Our entrepreneurs and engineers already live in this world,

我们的企业家和工程师 早已经出现在这个世上

but so do our nurses and our plumbers

我们的护士和水管工

and our therapists.

心理咨询师也同样如此

You know, it's the nature of too many companies and organizations

如今太多的公司和组织

to just ask people to come to work and do your job.

只是让人们来上个班做个工作

But if you work is better done by a robot,

但如果你的工作 机器人可以完成得更好

or your decisions better made by an AI,

或者机器人做决定都比你强

what are you supposed to be doing?

你还能做什么呢

Well, I think for the manager,

我认为对于管理者而言

we need to realistically think about the tasks that will be disappearing

我们需要现实地思考一下 在接下来几年里

over the next few years

会消失的任务

and start planning for more meaningful, more valuable work that should replace it.

并且开始计划用更有意义 更有价值的工作去替代它们

We need to create environments

我们需要创造环境

where both human beings and robots thrive.

人类和机器人都可以共同成长的环境

I say, let's give more work to the robots,

让我们给机器人更多的工作

and let's start with the work that we absolutely hate doing.

就从最讨厌做的工作开始

Here, robot,

嘿 机器人

process this painfully idiotic report.

处理掉这个愚蠢的报道

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And move this box. Thank you.

再搬走这个盒子 谢谢

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And for the human beings,

对于人类自身

we should follow the advice from Harry Davis at the University of Chicago.

我们应该遵从芝加哥大学 哈利·戴维斯的建议

He says we have to make it so that people don't leave too much of themselves

他说我们需要做到让人们不把自己

in the trunk of their car.

放在他们的后备箱中

I mean, human beings are amazing on weekends.

我的意思是 人们在周末会变得非常厉害

Think about the people that you know and what they do on Saturdays.

想一想你认识的人 以及他们在周六做的事

They're artists, carpenters, chefs and athletes.

他们是艺术家 木匠 厨师 运动员

But on Monday, they're back to being Junior HR Specialist

但是在周一 他们又变成了HR菜鸟

and Systems Analyst 3.

或3号系统分析员

(Laughter)

（笑声）

You know, these narrow job titles not only sound boring,

这些狭隘的职业名称不仅听上去很无趣

but they're actually a subtle encouragement

它们其实还潜移默化鼓动人们

去为狭隘和无聊的职业奉献

for people to make narrow and boring job contributions.

But I've seen firsthand that when you invite people to be more,

我已经见识过了 当你邀请人们做得更多时

they can amaze us with how much more they can be.

他们却能让我们刮目相看

A few years ago, I was working at a large bank

几年前 我在一个大银行工作

that was trying to bring more innovation into its company culture.

并试着把更多的创新 带进它的公司文化中

So my team and I designed a prototyping contest

我和我的团队设计了一个模型比赛

that invited anyone to build anything that they wanted.

邀请每一个人来建造 任何他们想建造的东西

We were actually trying to figure out

我们其实在试着找出

限制创新的主要原因究竟是

whether or not the primary limiter to innovation

was a lack of ideas or a lack of talent,

缺少想法还是缺少天赋

and it turns out it was neither one.

结果两者都不是

It was an empowerment problem.

这是一个关于授权的问题

And the results of the program were amazing.

这个项目的结果非常惊人

We started by inviting people to reenvision

我们起初邀请人们来重新构想

what it is they could bring to a team.

他们能给团队带来的东西

This contest was not only a chance to build anything that you wanted

这个比赛不仅是一个 天马行空去创造的事情

but also be anything that you wanted.

也是一个做你自己的机会

And when people were no longer limited by their day-to-day job titles,

当人们不再被他们 每天的工作头衔所限制时

他们会尽情的把 各种不同的技能和天赋

they felt free to bring all kinds of different skills and talents

应用到尝试要解决的问题中去

to the problems that they were trying to solve.

We saw technology people being designers, marketing people being architects,

我们看见技术人员成为设计师 营销人员变成建筑师

and even finance people showing off their ability to write jokes.

金融人员化身为段子手

(Laughter)

（笑声）

We ran this program twice,

我们运作了这个项目两次

and each time more than 400 people brought their unexpected talents to work

而每一次都有400多人为工作 带来了他们意想不到的天赋

and solved problems that they had been wanting to solve for years.

并且解决了他们很多年前 就想解决的问题

Collectively, they created millions of dollars of value,

他们共同创造了数百万美元的价值

building things like a better touch-tone system for call centers,

创建了更好的呼叫中心按键系统

easier desktop tools for branches

更易于使用的桌面工具

and even a thank you card system

甚至还有一个感谢信系统

that has become a cornerstone of the employee working experience.

这些都成为员工工作体验的基石

Over the course of the eight weeks,

在八周的时间里

people flexed muscles that they never dreamed of using at work.

人们在工作中展现了 他们从未想象过的神通

People learned new skills,

人们学会了新的技巧

they met new people,

他们结交了新的朋友

and at the end, somebody pulled me aside and said,

最后有个人把我拉到一边说

"I have to tell you,

我得告诉你

the last few weeks has been one of the most intense,

这几个礼拜是我这辈子

hardest working experiences of my entire life,

最紧张 最辛苦的工作经历

but not one second of it felt like work."

但我没有一刻感觉是在工作

And that's the key.

那就是关键

For those few weeks, people got to be creators and innovators.

在那几周里 人们需要 成为创造者和革新者

They had been dreaming of solutions

他们一直梦想着解决

to problems that had been bugging them for years,

那些烦扰了他们好多年的问题

and this was a chance to turn those dreams into a reality.

而这是一个把这些 梦想变为现实的机会

And that dreaming is an important part of what separates us from machines.

而梦想是我们区别于机器的重要部分

For now, our machines do not get frustrated,

目前我们的机器不会有挫败感

they do not get annoyed,

它们不会被惹怒

and they certainly don't imagine.

它们当然也不具有想象力

But we, as human beings --

但是我们 作为人类

we feel pain,

我们会感到痛苦

we get frustrated.

我们会觉得沮丧

And it's when we're most annoyed and most curious

而我们最为烦恼和最为好奇之时

that we're motivated to dig into a problem and create change.

就是我们产生动力去 深究问题并作出改变之时

Our imaginations are the birthplace of new products, new services,

我们的想象力是新产品 新服务

and even new industries.

甚至新工业的诞生地

I believe that the jobs of the future

我相信未来的职业

will come from the minds of people

源于人们的头脑

who today we call analysts and specialists,

他们在今天被称作分析员和专家

but only if we give them the freedom and protection that they need to grow

但这只会在我们为他们 成为发现者和发明家

into becoming explorers and inventors.

提供足够的自由和保护的情况下发生

If we really want to robot-proof our jobs,

如果我们确实想让 工作不被机器人取代

we, as leaders, need to get out of the mindset

我们 作为领导者 需要抛弃

of telling people what to do

指使人们做事的模式

and instead start asking them what problems they're inspired to solve

反而应该询问他们想解决什么问题

and what talents they want to bring to work.

以及他们想把什么天赋带到工作中

Because when you can bring your Saturday self to work on Wednesdays,

因为当你可以把周六的自己 带到周三的工作中时

you'll look forward to Mondays more,

你会更期待周一

and those feelings that we have about Mondays

而那些对周一的感觉

are part of what makes us human.

是我们人类的一部分

And as we redesign work for an era of intelligent machines,

在为人工智能时代 重新设计工作的过程中

I invite you all to work alongside me

我邀请你们所有人和我一起努力

to bring more humanity to our working lives.

把更多的人性带入 我们的工作生活中

Thank you.

谢谢

(Applause)

（掌声）