Why jobs of the future won't feel like work | David Lee

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: 易帆 余

So there's a lot of valid concern these days

近期有不少相當有根據的擔心，

that our technology is getting so smart

擔心我們的科技變得太聰明，

that we've put ourselves on the path to a jobless future.

會讓我們走向一個失業的未來。

And I think the example of a self-driving car

我想，自動駕駛的汽車

is actually the easiest one to see.

應該會是最早出現的例子。

So these are going to be fantastic for all kinds of different reasons.

基於各種理由，這些科技應該 對我們都很有幫助才對。

But did you know that "driver" is actually the most common job

但各位是否知道， 美國 50 州當中有 29 州

in 29 of the 50 US states?

「司機」這個工作 是最多人從事的工作？

What's going to happen to these jobs when we're no longer driving our cars

將來這些工作會變成怎樣？ 如果我們不再開車了、

or cooking our food

不再做菜了、

or even diagnosing our own diseases?

甚至不用診斷自己的疾病了？

Well, a recent study from Forrester Research

近期，弗雷斯特研究公司

goes so far to predict that 25 million jobs

有項研究指出， 預計在接下來的十年間，

might disappear over the next 10 years.

有 2500 萬個工作會消失。

To put that in perspective,

更準確地說，

that's three times as many jobs lost in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

這個數字是金融危機失業數的三倍。

And it's not just blue-collar jobs that are at risk.

不只藍領的工作有危機。

On Wall Street and across Silicon Valley, we are seeing tremendous gains

在華爾街以及矽谷，

都能看到機器學習 在分析與決策的品質上

in the quality of analysis and decision-making

because of machine learning.

已經幫助投資者獲得相當大的收益。

So even the smartest, highest-paid people will be affected by this change.

即使是最聰明、高薪的人， 也會被這改變給影響到。

What's clear is that no matter what your job is,

可以知道的是， 不論你的工作是什麼，

at least some, if not all of your work,

在接下來幾年， 你的工作至少有一部份，

is going to be done by a robot or software in the next few years.

甚至全部，將會由 機器人或軟體來接手。

And that's exactly why people like Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates

這也是為什麼馬克祖克柏 和比爾蓋茲他們這些人，

are talking about the need for government-funded minimum income levels.

會談到需要有由政府發動資助 最低收入水平的政策。

But if our politicians can't agree on things like health care

但如果政客們都無法搞定 全民健保或甚至是營養午餐

or even school lunches,

這一類的小事，

I just don't see a path where they'll find consensus

那我實在看不出， 他們要如何在像是

on something as big and as expensive as universal basic life income.

全體基本生活收入這種 要花大錢的大事上取得共識。

Instead, I think the response needs to be led by us in industry.

我反而認為，應變方式 應該由產業界來帶頭領導才是。

We have to recognize the change that's ahead of us

我們得要認清將來要面對的改變，

and start to design the new kinds of jobs

並開始設計新類型的工作，

that will still be relevant in the age of robotics.

讓我們在機器人時代 仍有實質性的工作可做。

The good news is that we have faced down and recovered

好消息是，我們以前就面臨並克服過

two mass extinctions of jobs before.

兩次重大的工作滅絕災難。

From 1870 to 1970,

從 1870 年到 1970 年，

the percent of American workers based on farms fell by 90 percent,

美國以農田為基礎的 工人少了 90%，

and then again from 1950 to 2010,

然後，1950 年到 2010 年 又發生一次，

the percent of Americans working in factories

在工廠工作的美國人

fell by 75 percent.

少了 75%。

The challenge we face this time, however, is one of time.

然而，這次我們面對的挑戰， 是時間上的挑戰。

We had a hundred years to move from farms to factories,

我們從農業社會轉換到工業社會， 用了一百年的時間，

and then 60 years to fully build out a service economy.

然後用了六十年的時間， 才完整服務業經濟的轉型。

The rate of change today

但這次的改變速度，

suggests that we may only have 10 or 15 years to adjust,

我們可能只有十到 十五年的時間來調整，

and if we don't react fast enough,

如果我們的反應不夠快，

that means by the time today's elementary-school students

也就是說，在現在的小學生

are college-aged,

上大學的時候，

we could be living in a world that's robotic,

我們可能會居住在一個

largely unemployed and stuck in kind of un-great depression.

大量失業的機器人世界， 並卡在一種不怎麼大的蕭條經濟中。

But I don't think it has to be this way.

但我覺得並非得一定要走上這一步。

You see, I work in innovation,

我的工作是創新，

and part of my job is to shape how large companies apply new technologies.

有一部分是在幫大公司 規劃如何應用新技術。

Certainly some of these technologies

肯定有一些技術

are even specifically designed to replace human workers.

是特別設計來取代人類勞動者的。

But I believe that if we start taking steps right now

但我相信，如果我們現在就起步，

to change the nature of work,

來改變工作的本質，

we can not only create environments where people love coming to work

我們不但能創造出讓人們 樂意去的工作環境，

but also generate the innovation that we need

也能產生出我們需要的創新，

to replace the millions of jobs that will be lost to technology.

來取代數百萬個 因科技而消失的工作。

I believe that the key to preventing our jobless future

我相信，預防未來失業的關鍵在於

is to rediscover what makes us human,

要重新找到「人類」的價值，

and to create a new generation of human-centered jobs

並創造出以人類為 中心的新一代工作，

that allow us to unlock the hidden talents and passions

讓我們能夠將每天帶在身上的

that we carry with us every day.

潛藏天賦與熱情展現出來。

But first, I think it's important to recognize

但，首先，很重要的是要知道，

that we brought this problem on ourselves.

是我們自己造成這個問題的。

And it's not just because, you know, we are the one building the robots.

原因並不只是因為 我們建造了機器人。

But even though most jobs left the factory decades ago,

雖然數十年前大部份的工作 已經在工廠消失，

we still hold on to this factory mindset

我們仍然有著工廠心態：

of standardization and de-skilling.

標準化和降低技術難度。

We still define jobs around procedural tasks

我們仍然以程序性任務來定義工作，

and then pay people for the number of hours that they perform these tasks.

然後根據人們花在這些 任務上的時數來支付薪水。

We've created narrow job definitions

我們對工作的定義很狹隘，

like cashier, loan processor or taxi driver

如出納員、貸款程序員、 計程車司機，

and then asked people to form entire careers

然後要求人們用這些單一任務來

around these singular tasks.

規劃他們的人生職涯。

These choices have left us with actually two dangerous side effects.

這些選擇其實 會帶給我們兩個副作用。

The first is that these narrowly defined jobs

第一，這些定義狹隘的工作

will be the first to be displaced by robots,

會是最先被機器人取代的工作，

because single-task robots are just the easiest kinds to build.

因為處理單一任務的 機器人最容易做。

But second, we have accidentally made it

第二，我們已經不小心

so that millions of workers around the world

讓全世界數百萬勞工的

have unbelievably boring working lives.

工作生活變得無聊死了。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Let's take the example of a call center agent.

就以電話客服中心為例。

Over the last few decades, we brag about lower operating costs

在過去幾十年， 我們吹噓著要壓低營運成本，

because we've taken most of the need for brainpower

因為我們把大部份需要腦力的工作，

out of the person and put it into the system.

從人身上轉到了系統上。

For most of their day, they click on screens,

這些人大部份的工作時間 是在點選螢幕、

they read scripts.

閱讀操作指示。

They act more like machines than humans.

他們的行為比較像機器而非人類。

And unfortunately, over the next few years,

不幸的是，在接下來幾年，

as our technology gets more advanced,

隨著我們的科技更進步，

they, along with people like clerks and bookkeepers,

他們以及像是辦事員、記帳員等等，

will see the vast majority of their work disappear.

將要面臨工作機會大量消失的現象。

To counteract this, we have to start creating new jobs

要對抗這現象， 就得要開始創造新工作，

that are less centered on the tasks that a person does

不要著重在「工作」，

and more focused on the skills that a person brings to work.

要比較著重在人會的「技能」上。

For example, robots are great at repetitive and constrained work,

比如，機器人很擅長 重覆性和受限制的工作，

but human beings have an amazing ability

但人類有很了不起的能力，

to bring together capability with creativity

能夠在面對以前從未見過的問題時，

when faced with problems that we've never seen before.

將才能與創意結合在一起。

It's when every day brings a little bit of a surprise

當每天都能夠帶來一點點驚奇時，

that we have designed work for humans

就表示我們是在為「人」設計工作，

and not for robots.

而非為「機器人」設計工作。

Our entrepreneurs and engineers already live in this world,

我們的企業家和工程師 已經活在這種世界裡，

but so do our nurses and our plumbers

我們的護士、水電工、

and our therapists.

和治療師也是。

You know, it's the nature of too many companies and organizations

太多公司和組織的本質，

to just ask people to come to work and do your job.

就是要求人們來上班、做你的工作。

But if you work is better done by a robot,

但若機器人能把你的工作做更好，

or your decisions better made by an AI,

或是人工智慧能比你 更能做出好的決策，

what are you supposed to be doing?

那你該做什麼事？

Well, I think for the manager,

我想，對經理人而言，

we need to realistically think about the tasks that will be disappearing

我們需要很實際地去思考

在接下來幾年會消失的工作任務，

over the next few years

and start planning for more meaningful, more valuable work that should replace it.

並開始規劃比較有意義、 有價值的工作來取代。

We need to create environments

我們需要創造出能讓

where both human beings and robots thrive.

人類和機器人都雙贏的環境。

I say, let's give more work to the robots,

我說，就給機器人更多工作吧，

and let's start with the work that we absolutely hate doing.

先把我們最討厭 做的工作丟給它們做。

Here, robot,

機器人，給你，

process this painfully idiotic report.

你來處理這惱人又愚蠢的報告。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And move this box. Thank you.

順便移開這箱子，謝謝。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And for the human beings,

對人類而言，

we should follow the advice from Harry Davis at the University of Chicago.

我們應該要採納芝加哥大學 哈利戴維斯的建議。

He says we have to make it so that people don't leave too much of themselves

他說，我們得要做到

不要讓人們覺得 自己沒有完全發揮才能。

in the trunk of their car.

I mean, human beings are amazing on weekends.

人類在週末的時候是很令人驚奇的。

Think about the people that you know and what they do on Saturdays.

想想看你認識的人 在星期六會做什麼。

They're artists, carpenters, chefs and athletes.

他們會變成藝術家、 木工、主廚、運動員。

But on Monday, they're back to being Junior HR Specialist

但星期一，他們回去當 低階的人力資源專員、

and Systems Analyst 3.

三號系統分析員。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

You know, these narrow job titles not only sound boring,

這些狹隘的工作職稱 不僅是聽起來很無聊，

but they're actually a subtle encouragement

實際上，它們在不知不覺間

for people to make narrow and boring job contributions.

鼓勵人們去做 狹隘且無聊的工作貢獻。

But I've seen firsthand that when you invite people to be more,

但我親眼見過，當你 邀請人們更上一層樓時，

they can amaze us with how much more they can be.

他們能做到的，會讓我們驚艷。

A few years ago, I was working at a large bank

幾年前，我在一間大型銀行工作，

that was trying to bring more innovation into its company culture.

該銀行試圖想要在 公司文化中加入更多創新。

So my team and I designed a prototyping contest

我和我的團隊設計了 一個原型製作競賽，

that invited anyone to build anything that they wanted.

邀請所有人建造他們想要的東西。

We were actually trying to figure out

我們其實是在試圖了解，

whether or not the primary limiter to innovation

限制了創新的主要因子是不是

was a lack of ideas or a lack of talent,

缺乏點子或是缺乏才華，

and it turns out it was neither one.

結果兩者都不是。

It was an empowerment problem.

問題是在於賦權使能。

And the results of the program were amazing.

那個專案計畫的結果很驚人。

We started by inviting people to reenvision

我們一開始是邀請人們來重新想像

what it is they could bring to a team.

他們能帶給團隊什麼。

This contest was not only a chance to build anything that you wanted

這個競賽並不只是個機會 讓他們建造任何想建造的東西，

but also be anything that you wanted.

也是個機會讓你 成為任何想成為的人。

And when people were no longer limited by their day-to-day job titles,

當人們不再受到平常職稱的限制時，

他們感到能自由地運用 所有不同的技能和才華，

they felt free to bring all kinds of different skills and talents

to the problems that they were trying to solve.

用在他們試圖解決的問題上。

We saw technology people being designers, marketing people being architects,

我們看過科技人員變成設計師、 行銷人員變成建築師，

and even finance people showing off their ability to write jokes.

甚至財務人員都會炫耀 他們寫笑話的能力。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

We ran this program twice,

這個專案計畫做了兩次，

and each time more than 400 people brought their unexpected talents to work

每次都有超過四百人， 把他們未被預期的才華帶進工作中，

and solved problems that they had been wanting to solve for years.

解決他們多年來一直想解決的問題。

Collectively, they created millions of dollars of value,

他們一起創造出了數百萬元的價值，

building things like a better touch-tone system for call centers,

像是為客服中心建造 更好用的按鍵式系統、

easier desktop tools for branches

為分行建造更好用的桌面工具、

and even a thank you card system

甚至還有感謝卡系統，

that has become a cornerstone of the employee working experience.

成為員工工作情感上的基石。

Over the course of the eight weeks,

在八週的期間，

people flexed muscles that they never dreamed of using at work.

大家捲起袖子，拿出了從未夢想過 能夠在工作上使用到的能力。

People learned new skills,

人們學習新技能，

they met new people,

他們去認識新的人，

and at the end, somebody pulled me aside and said,

最後，有個人把我拉到一旁，說：

"I have to tell you,

「我得告訴你，

the last few weeks has been one of the most intense,

過去幾週是我一生中

hardest working experiences of my entire life,

最熱情最賣力的工作經驗，

but not one second of it felt like work."

沒有一秒鐘感覺像是在工作。」

And that's the key.

那就是關鍵。

For those few weeks, people got to be creators and innovators.

在那幾週，人們得以 成為創作者、創新者。

They had been dreaming of solutions

他們一直夢想著去解決

to problems that had been bugging them for years,

那些讓他們困擾多年的問題，

and this was a chance to turn those dreams into a reality.

這是個讓那些夢想成真的機會。

And that dreaming is an important part of what separates us from machines.

我們和機器之所以不同， 很重要的一點就是夢想。

For now, our machines do not get frustrated,

我們的機器不會感到挫折，

they do not get annoyed,

它們不會被惹惱，

and they certainly don't imagine.

它們肯定也不會想像。

But we, as human beings --

但我們，身為人類──

we feel pain,

我們能感受痛苦，

we get frustrated.

我們會受到挫折，

And it's when we're most annoyed and most curious

在我們最惱怒、最好奇的時候，

that we're motivated to dig into a problem and create change.

我們就會有動力去 探究問題並創造改變。

Our imaginations are the birthplace of new products, new services,

我們的想像力是新產品、新服務、

and even new industries.

甚至是新產業的孕育之地。

I believe that the jobs of the future

我相信，未來的工作

will come from the minds of people

會來自現今被我們稱為

who today we call analysts and specialists,

分析師和專員的那些人的想法，

but only if we give them the freedom and protection that they need to grow

但前提是我們要給予 他們成長為探索家

into becoming explorers and inventors.

和發明家所需要的自由和保護。

If we really want to robot-proof our jobs,

若想確保飯碗不被機器人搶走，

we, as leaders, need to get out of the mindset

身為領導者的我們，就應該要擺脫

of telling people what to do

告訴人們該做什麼的心態，

and instead start asking them what problems they're inspired to solve

反之，要開始問他們， 他們想要解決什麼問題、

and what talents they want to bring to work.

他們想要貢獻什麼才能到工作中。

Because when you can bring your Saturday self to work on Wednesdays,

因為當你能在星期三 把星期六的你帶進工作時，

you'll look forward to Mondays more,

你就會更期待星期一的到來，

and those feelings that we have about Mondays

讓我們對星期一的感受

are part of what makes us human.

成為身為人類的一部份。

And as we redesign work for an era of intelligent machines,

我們正在為智慧機器時代 重新設計工作，

I invite you all to work alongside me

我邀請各位與我同行，

to bring more humanity to our working lives.

把更多人性帶到 我們的工作生活當中。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）