3 ways to make better decisions -- by thinking like a computer | Tom Griffiths

Prevodilac: Stevan Stanišić Lektor: Tijana Mihajlović

If there's one city in the world

Ako postoji grad na svetu

where it's hard to find a place to buy or rent,

gde je tešto naći stan da se kupi ili iznajmi,

it's Sydney.

to je Sidnej.

And if you've tried to find a home here recently,

A ako ste nedavno pokušali da ovde nađete dom,

you're familiar with the problem.

onda ste upoznati sa problemom.

Every time you walk into an open house,

Svaki put kad uđete u kuću za razgledanje,

you get some information about what's out there

dobijete deo informacija o tome šta sve postoji

and what's on the market,

i šta je na tržištu.

but every time you walk out,

Ali svaki put kad izađete,

you're running the risk of the very best place passing you by.

suočavate se sa rizikom da propustite najbolje mesto.

So how do you know when to switch from looking

Kako onda da znate kada da se prebacite sa razgledanja

to being ready to make an offer?

na spremnost da date ponudu?

This is such a cruel and familiar problem

Ovo je tako okrutan i poznat problem,

that it might come as a surprise that it has a simple solution.

pa bi moglo da bude iznenađenje da ima jednostavno rešenje.

37 percent.

Trideset sedam procenata.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

If you want to maximize the probability that you find the very best place,

Ako želite da uvećate verovatnoću da nađete najbolje moguće mesto,

you should look at 37 percent of what's on the market,

trebalo bi da pogledate 37 procenata ponude na tržištu

and then make an offer on the next place you see,

i onda date ponudu za sledeće mesto koje vidite,

which is better than anything that you've seen so far.

a koje je bolje od svega što ste do tada videli.

Or if you're looking for a month, take 37 percent of that time --

Ili ako tražite već mesec dana, uzmite 37 procenata od tog vremena -

11 days, to set a standard --

11 dana, da uspostavimo standard -

and then you're ready to act.

i onda ste spremni da delate.

We know this because trying to find a place to live

Znamo ovo zato što je nalaženje mesta za život

is an example of an optimal stopping problem.

primer problema optimalnog zaustavljanja.

A class of problems that has been studied extensively

To je klasa problema koju su detaljno proučavali

by mathematicians and computer scientists.

matematičari i računarski stručnjaci.

I'm a computational cognitive scientist.

Ja sam kognitivni računarski naučnik.

I spend my time trying to understand

Provodim vreme pokušavajući da razumem

how it is that human minds work,

kako to ljudski umovi funkcionišu,

from our amazing successes to our dismal failures.

od naših neverovatnih uspeha do naših sumornih neuspeha.

To do that, I think about the computational structure

Da bih uspeo u tome, razmišljam o računarskim strukturama problema

of the problems that arise in everyday life,

koji se javljaju u svakodnevnom životu

and compare the ideal solutions to those problems

i upoređujem idealna rešenja takvih problema

sa načinom na koji se zaista ponašamo.

to the way that we actually behave.

As a side effect,

Kao nuspojavu

I get to see how applying a little bit of computer science

mogu da vidim kako mala primena računarske nauke

can make human decision-making easier.

može da olakša ljudski način odlučivanja.

I have a personal motivation for this.

Imam ličnu motivaciju za ovo.

Growing up in Perth as an overly cerebral kid ...

Odrastajući u Pertu kao preterano mozgovit klinac...

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

I would always try and act in the way that I thought was rational,

uvek bih pokušao da delam na način za koji sam mislio da je racionalan,

reasoning through every decision,

promišljajući svaku odluku

trying to figure out the very best action to take.

u pokušaju da shvatim šta je najbolje da preduzmem.

But this is an approach that doesn't scale up

Ali ovo je pristup koji ne pije vodu

kad počnete da nalećete na probleme

when you start to run into the sorts of problems

koji se pojavljuju u životu odraslih.

that arise in adult life.

At one point, I even tried to break up with my girlfriend

U jednom trenutku sam čak pokušao da raskinem sa devojkom

because trying to take into account her preferences as well as my own

jer me je pokušaj uzimanja u obzir njenih želja, kao i sopstvenih,

and then find perfect solutions --

i potom nalaženja savršenih rešenja -

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

was just leaving me exhausted.

jednostavno ostavljao iscrpljenog.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

She pointed out that I was taking the wrong approach

Istakla je da sam primenjivao pogrešan pristup

to solving this problem --

za rešavanje ovog problema -

and she later became my wife.

i kasnije mi je postala žena.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Whether it's as basic as trying to decide what restaurant to go to

Bilo da je osnovno kao pokušavanje da se odluči u koji restoran da se ide

or as important as trying to decide who to spend the rest of your life with,

ili bitno kao pokušaj odlučivanja s kim da provedete ostatak svog života,

human lives are filled with computational problems

ljudski životi su ispunjeni računarskim problemima

that are just too hard to solve by applying sheer effort.

koji su ipak previše teški za rešavanje kroz prosti trud.

For those problems,

Za te probleme,

it's worth consulting the experts:

vredi konsultovati se sa ekspertima:

computer scientists.

računarskim stručnjacima.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

When you're looking for life advice,

Kada vam je potreban životni savet,

computer scientists probably aren't the first people you think to talk to.

računarski stručnjaci verovatno nisu prvi koji vam padaju na pamet.

Living life like a computer --

Živeti život poput računara -

stereotypically deterministic, exhaustive and exact --

stereotipno deterministički, iscrpljujuće i egzaktno -

doesn't sound like a lot of fun.

ne zvuči preterano zabavno.

But thinking about the computer science of human decisions

Ali razmišljanje o računarskoj nauci ljudskog odlučivanja

reveals that in fact, we've got this backwards.

otkriva da u stvari ovo posmatramo naopako.

When applied to the sorts of difficult problems

Primenjeno na vrstu teških problema

that arise in human lives,

u ljudskim životima,

način na koji računari zapravo rešavaju takve probleme

the way that computers actually solve those problems

looks a lot more like the way that people really act.

mnogo više liči na način na koji ljudi zaista delaju.

Take the example of trying to decide what restaurant to go to.

Uzmimo, na primer, pokušaj odlučivanja u koji restoran da se ode.

This is a problem that has a particular computational structure.

Ovo je problem koji ima naročitu računarsku strukturu.

Imate skup izbora,

You've got a set of options,

you're going to choose one of those options,

odabraćete jedan od tih izbora

and you're going to face exactly the same decision tomorrow.

i suočićete se sa potpuno istom odlukom sutradan.

In that situation,

U takvoj situaciji,

you run up against what computer scientists call

susrećete se sa nečim što računarski stručnjaci zovu

the "explore-exploit trade-off."

„kompromis istraživanja-iskorišćavanja“.

You have to make a decision

Morate da donesete odluku

about whether you're going to try something new --

da li ćete isprobati nešto novo -

exploring, gathering some information

istraživati, prikupljati informacije

koje ćete možda iskoristititi u budućnosti -

that you might be able to use in the future --

or whether you're going to go to a place that you already know is pretty good --

ili ćete otići na mesto za koje već znate da je vrlo dobro -

exploiting the information that you've already gathered so far.

iskorišćavajući informacije koje ste do tada prikupili.

The explore/exploit trade-off shows up any time you have to choose

Ovaj kompromis pojavljuje se svaki put

kada morate da birate između isprobavanja nečeg novog

between trying something new

and going with something that you already know is pretty good,

i nečega za šta već znate da je vrlo dobro,

whether it's listening to music

bilo da je to slušanje muzike

ili pokušaj odlučivanja s kim ćete provoditi vreme.

or trying to decide who you're going to spend time with.

Sa ovim problemom se suočavaju i tehnološke kompanije

It's also the problem that technology companies face

when they're trying to do something like decide what ad to show on a web page.

kada pokušavaju da odluče koju reklamu da pokažu na veb-stranici.

Da li da pokažu novu reklamu i saznaju nešto o njoj

Should they show a new ad and learn something about it,

ili da vam pokažu reklamu

or should they show you an ad

za koju već znaju da su velike šanse da ćete kliknuti na nju?

that they already know there's a good chance you're going to click on?

Over the last 60 years,

Tokom proteklih 60 godina,

computer scientists have made a lot of progress understanding

računarski stručnjaci ostvarili su veliki napredak

the explore/exploit trade-off,

u razumevanju kompromisa istraživanja-iskorišćavanja,

and their results offer some surprising insights.

i njihovi rezultati nude neke iznenađujuće uvide.

When you're trying to decide what restaurant to go to,

Kada pokušavate da odlučite u koji restoran da odete,

the first question you should ask yourself

prvo pitanje koje bi trebalo da postavite

is how much longer you're going to be in town.

je koliko dugo ćete još ostati u gradu.

If you're just going to be there for a short time,

Ako ćete ostati na kratko,

then you should exploit.

onda treba da iskoristite.

There's no point gathering information.

Nema svrhe prikupljati informacije.

Just go to a place you already know is good.

Idite na mesto za koje već znate da je dobro.

But if you're going to be there for a longer time, explore.

Ali ako ostajete na duži period, istražujte.

Try something new, because the information you get

Isprobaje nešto novo, zato što su informacije koje prikupite

is something that can improve your choices in the future.

nešto što može da poboljša vaše buduće izbore.

The value of information increases

Vrednost informacija se uvećava

the more opportunities you're going to have to use it.

sa brojem prilika koje ćete imati da ih iskoristite.

This principle can give us insight

Ovaj princip može da nam da uvid

into the structure of a human life as well.

i u strukturu ljudskog života.

Babies don't have a reputation for being particularly rational.

Bebe ne slove za nekoga ko je nešto posebno racionalan.

They're always trying new things,

Stalno isprobavaju nove stvari

and you know, trying to stick them in their mouths.

i, znate, pokušavaju da ih strpaju u usta.

But in fact, this is exactly what they should be doing.

Međutim, ovo je upravo ono što bi trebalo da rade.

They're in the explore phase of their lives,

One su u istraživačkoj fazi svog života,

and some of those things could turn out to be delicious.

i neke od tih stvari bi mogle da se ispostave ukusnim.

At the other end of the spectrum,

Na drugoj strani spektra,

the old guy who always goes to the same restaurant

starac koji uvek ide u isti restoran

and always eats the same thing

i uvek jede isto jelo

isn't boring --

nije dosadan -

he's optimal.

on je optimalan.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

He's exploiting the knowledge that he's earned

On iskorišćava znanje koje je stekao kroz životno iskustvo.

through a lifetime's experience.

More generally,

Uopštenije, saznanje o kompromisu istraživanja-iskorišćavanja

knowing about the explore/exploit trade-off

can make it a little easier for you to sort of relax and go easier on yourself

može vam malo olakšati da se opustite i manje stavljate pod pritisak

kada pokušavate da donesete odluku.

when you're trying to make a decision.

Ne morate da idete u najbolji restoran svake večeri.

You don't have to go to the best restaurant every night.

Take a chance, try something new, explore.

Okušajte sreću, isprobajte nešto novo, istražujte.

You might learn something.

Možda nešto naučite.

And the information that you gain

A informacije koje dobijete

is going to be worth more than one pretty good dinner.

biće vrednije od jedne prilično dobre večere.

Computer science can also help to make it easier on us

Računarska nauka takođe može da pomogne da nam bude lakše

in other places at home and in the office.

i na drugim mestima u domu i kancelariji.

If you've ever had to tidy up your wardrobe,

Ako ste ikada morali da pospremite svoj garderober,

you've run into a particularly agonizing decision:

naišli ste na naročito mučnu odluku:

you have to decide what things you're going to keep

morate da odlučite koje stvari ćete zadržati,

and what things you're going to give away.

a koje ćete da poklonite.

Martha Stewart turns out to have thought very hard about this --

Marta Stjuart je, ispostavlja se, duboko razmišljala o ovome -

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

and she has some good advice.

i ima dobre savete.

She says, "Ask yourself four questions:

Ona kaže: „Postavite sebi četiri pitanja:

How long have I had it?

Koliko dugo ga imam?

Does it still function?

Da li još uvek funkcioniše?

Is it a duplicate of something that I already own?

Da li je duplikat nečega što već imam?

And when was the last time I wore it or used it?"

Kada sam ga poslednji put nosila ili koristila?“

But there's another group of experts

Ali ima još jedna grupa stručnjaka koja je možda

who perhaps thought even harder about this problem,

još dublje razmišljala o ovom problemu,

and they would say one of these questions is more important than the others.

i oni bi rekli da je jedno od ovih pitanja mnogo važnije od ostalih.

Those experts?

Ti stručnjaci?

The people who design the memory systems of computers.

Ljudi koji razvijaju memorijske sisteme računara.

Most computers have two kinds of memory systems:

Većina računara ima dve vrste memorijskih sistema:

a fast memory system,

brz memorijski sistem,

like a set of memory chips that has limited capacity,

kao skup memorijskih čipova koji imaju ograničen kapacitet

because those chips are expensive,

zato što su takvi čipovi skupi,

and a slow memory system, which is much larger.

i spor memorijski sistem, koji je mnogo veći.

In order for the computer to operate as efficiently as possible,

Da bi računar funkcionisao što je efikasnije moguće,

you want to make sure

želite da budete sigurni

that the pieces of information you want to access

da su podaci kojima želite da pristupite

are in the fast memory system,

u brzom memorijskom sistemu,

tako da možete brzo da im priđete.

so that you can get to them quickly.

Svaki put kada pristupate nekom podatku,

Each time you access a piece of information,

on se učita u brzu memoriju

it's loaded into the fast memory

and the computer has to decide which item it has to remove from that memory,

i računar mora da odluči koju stavku da ukloni iz te memorije

because it has limited capacity.

zato što joj je ograničen kapacitet.

Over the years,

Tokom godina,

computer scientists have tried a few different strategies

računarski stručnjaci su isprobali nekoliko različitih strategija

for deciding what to remove from the fast memory.

za odlučivanje šta da se ukloni iz brze memorije.

They've tried things like choosing something at random

Pokušali su nešto kao što je izbor nečeg slučajnog

or applying what's called the "first-in, first-out principle,"

ili primenu principa koji se zove „prvi ušao, prvi izašao“,

which means removing the item

što znači uklanjanje stavke

which has been in the memory for the longest.

koja je najduže bila u memoriji.

But the strategy that's most effective

Ali, strategija koja je najdelotvornija

focuses on the items which have been least recently used.

usredsređuje se na stavke koje su najmanje nedavno korišćene.

This says if you're going to decide to remove something from memory,

Ovo znači da, ako odlučujete da uklonite nešto iz memorije,

treba da uklonite stvar kojoj je poslednji put pristupano najdalje u prošlosti.

you should take out the thing which was last accessed the furthest in the past.

And there's a certain kind of logic to this.

A postoji određena vrsta logike u ovome.

If it's been a long time since you last accessed that piece of information,

Ako je dosta prošlo od kad ste poslednji put pristupili tom podatku,

it's probably going to be a long time

verovatno će dosta vremena proteći

before you're going to need to access it again.

pre nego što ponovo bude potrebno da mu pristupite.

Your wardrobe is just like the computer's memory.

Vaš garderober je gotovo isti kao računarska memorija.

You have limited capacity,

Imate ograničen kapacitet

and you need to try and get in there the things that you're most likely to need

i treba da unutra stavite stvari koje će vam najverovatnije biti potrebne

so that you can get to them as quickly as possible.

tako da možete da im priđete što je moguće brže.

Recognizing that,

Prepoznajući to,

maybe it's worth applying the least recently used principle

možda vredi upotrebiti princip poslednjeg korišćenog

u organizaciji i vašeg garderobera.

to organizing your wardrobe as well.

So if we go back to Martha's four questions,

Ako se vratimo na Martina četiri pitanja,

the computer scientists would say that of these,

računarski stručnjaci bi rekli da je od njih poslednje najbitnije.

the last one is the most important.

This idea of organizing things

Ova ideja da se stvari organizuju

so that the things you are most likely to need are most accessible

tako da su one koje će vam verovatno biti najpotrebnije budu najpristupačnije

can also be applied in your office.

može da se primeni i u kancelariji.

The Japanese economist Yukio Noguchi

Japanski ekonomista Jukio Noguči

actually invented a filing system that has exactly this property.

zapravo je izumeo sistem arhiviranja kojeg odlikuje upravo ovo.

He started with a cardboard box,

Započeo je sa kartonskom kutijom

and he put his documents into the box from the left-hand side.

i stavljao bi dokumente u nju počevši od leve strane.

Each time he'd add a document,

Svaki put kada bi dodao dokument,

he'd move what was in there along

pomerio bi ono što je unutra

and he'd add that document to the left-hand side of the box.

i dodao novi dokument na levu stranu kutije.

A svaki put kada bi mu zatrebao neki dokument, izvadio bi ga,

And each time he accessed a document, he'd take it out,

consult it and put it back in on the left-hand side.

razmotrio i vratio na levu stranu.

As a result, the documents would be ordered from left to right

Kao rezultat, dokumenti su bili poređani od leve strane ka desnoj

by how recently they had been used.

prema tome koliko skoro su bili korišćeni.

And he found he could quickly find what he was looking for

I shvatio je da može brzo da nađe ono što bi tražio

by starting at the left-hand side of the box

počevši pretragu s leve strane kutije i listajući polako nadesno.

and working his way to the right.

Before you dash home and implement this filing system --

Pre nego što pojurite kući da započnete ovaj sistem arhiviranja

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

it's worth recognizing that you probably already have.

vredi priznati da verovatno već jeste.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

That pile of papers on your desk ...

Ona hrpa papira na vašem stolu...

typically maligned as messy and disorganized,

tipično oklevetana kao neuredna i neorganizovana,

a pile of papers is, in fact, perfectly organized --

ta hrpa papira je, u stvari, savršeno organizovana -

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

as long as you, when you take a paper out,

dok god, kad izvadite neki papir,

put it back on the top of the pile,

vratite nazad na vrh gomile.

then those papers are going to be ordered from top to bottom

Onda će ti papiri da budu uređeni od vrha ka dnu

by how recently they were used,

prema tome koliko su skoro korišćeni

i verovatno ćete brzo moći da nađete ono što tražite

and you can probably quickly find what you're looking for

by starting at the top of the pile.

počinjanjem na vrhu gomile.

Organizing your wardrobe or your desk

Organizovanje sopstvenog garderobera ili stola

are probably not the most pressing problems in your life.

verovatno nisu najvažniji problemi u vašem životu.

Sometimes the problems we have to solve are simply very, very hard.

Ponekad su problemi koje moramo da rešimo jednostavno vrlo, vrlo teški.

But even in those cases,

Ali, čak i u tim slučajevima,

computer science can offer some strategies

računarska nauka može da ponudi neke strategije i možda malo utehe.

and perhaps some solace.

The best algorithms are about doing what makes the most sense

Najbolji algoritmi su o radu koji ima najviše smisla

in the least amount of time.

za najkraće moguće vreme.

When computers face hard problems,

Kada se računari suoče sa teškim problemima,

they deal with them by making them into simpler problems --

rešavaju ih rastavljanjem na jednostavnije probleme -

by making use of randomness,

korišćenjem slučajnosti,

by removing constraints or by allowing approximations.

uklanjanjem ograničenja ili dozvoljavanjem aproksimacija.

Solving those simpler problems

Rešavanje tih jednostavnijih problema

can give you insight into the harder problems,

može vam dati uvid u teže probleme,

and sometimes produces pretty good solutions in their own right.

i ponekad proizvede prilično dobra rešenja sama po sebi.

Knowing all of this has helped me to relax when I have to make decisions.

To što znam sve ovo mi je pomoglo da se opustim kada moram da odlučujem.

You could take the 37 percent rule for finding a home as an example.

Možete uzeti pravilo 37 procenata za pronalaženje doma kao primer.

There's no way that you can consider all of the options,

Nema šanse da možete da uzmete u obzir sve mogućnosti,

so you have to take a chance.

tako da morate da rizikujete.

And even if you follow the optimal strategy,

A čak i da se držite optimalne strategije,

you're not guaranteed a perfect outcome.

nije vam zagarantovan savršen ishod.

If you follow the 37 percent rule,

Ako se držite pravila o 37 procenata,

the probability that you find the very best place is --

verovatnoća da ćete pronaći najbolje mesto je -

funnily enough ...

ironično...

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

37 percent.

37 procenata.

You fail most of the time.

Podbacujete većinu vremena.

But that's the best that you can do.

Ali, to je najbolje što možete.

Ultimately, computer science can help to make us more forgiving

Naposletku, računarska nauka može da pomogne da budemo pomirljiviji

of our own limitations.

prema sopstvenim ograničenjima.

You can't control outcomes, just processes.

Ne možete da kontrolišete ishode, samo procese.

And as long as you've used the best process,

I dok god koristite najbolji proces,

you've done the best that you can.

uradili ste najbolje što možete.

Sometimes those best processes involve taking a chance --

Ponekad ti najbolji procesi uključuju rizik -

not considering all of your options,

da se ne razmotre sve mogućnosti

or being willing to settle for a pretty good solution.

ili volju da se zadovoljimo sa prilično dobrim rešenjem.

These aren't the concessions that we make when we can't be rational --

Ovo nisu ustupci koje činimo kad ne možemo da budemo racionalni -

they're what being rational means.

oni su to što znači biti racionalan.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)