3 ways to make better decisions -- by thinking like a computer | Tom Griffiths

Prevoditelj: Igor Pureta Recezent: Sanda L

If there's one city in the world

Ako postoji i jedan grad na svijetu

where it's hard to find a place to buy or rent,

u kojem je teško kupiti ili iznajmiti stan,

it's Sydney.

onda je to Sydney.

And if you've tried to find a home here recently,

Ako ste nedavno pokušali pronaći dom,

you're familiar with the problem.

znate o čemu pričam.

Every time you walk into an open house,

Svaki put kad uđete u neku kuću,

you get some information about what's out there

doznate neke informacije o tome što se događa,

and what's on the market,

čega ima na tržištu.

but every time you walk out,

I svaki put kad iziđete van,

you're running the risk of the very best place passing you by.

suočavate se s rizikom da ćete propustiti najbolju ponudu.

So how do you know when to switch from looking

Pa kako da znate kada prestati gledati

to being ready to make an offer?

i dati ponudu za najam prostora?

This is such a cruel and familiar problem

To je tako okrutan i poznat problem

that it might come as a surprise that it has a simple solution.

pa će vam možda biti iznenađenje da mu je rješenje vrlo jednostavno.

37 percent.

37 posto.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

If you want to maximize the probability that you find the very best place,

Ako želite povećati vjerojatnost pronalaženja najboljeg mjesta,

you should look at 37 percent of what's on the market,

trebate obratiti pažnju na 37% onoga što se nudi,

and then make an offer on the next place you see,

a zatim dati ponudu za sljedeći prostor koji ste našli,

which is better than anything that you've seen so far.

a koji je bolji od drugih koje ste vidjeli do tada.

Or if you're looking for a month, take 37 percent of that time --

Ili ako tražite mjesec dana, uzmite 37% tog vremena --

11 days, to set a standard --

11 dana, da budemo precizni --

and then you're ready to act.

i spremni ste na djelovanje.

We know this because trying to find a place to live

Znamo za to, jer traženje prostora za život

is an example of an optimal stopping problem.

je primjer problema optimalnog odustajanja.

A class of problems that has been studied extensively

To je vrsta problema koju intenzivno proučavaju

by mathematicians and computer scientists.

matematičari i računalni znanstvenici.

I'm a computational cognitive scientist.

Ja sam računski kognitivni znanstvenik.

I spend my time trying to understand

Pokušavam razumjeti

how it is that human minds work,

kako radi ljudski um

from our amazing successes to our dismal failures.

u trenucima najvećih uspjeha i tužnih grešaka.

To do that, I think about the computational structure

Razmišljam o računskoj strukturi

of the problems that arise in everyday life,

problema koji nastaju u svakodnevnom životu

and compare the ideal solutions to those problems

i uspoređujem načine na koji se ponašaju u stvarnom životu

to the way that we actually behave.

s njihovim idealnim rješenjima.

As a side effect,

Kao posljedicu

I get to see how applying a little bit of computer science

mogu vidjeti kako primjena malo računalne znanosti

can make human decision-making easier.

može ljudske odluke učiniti lakšima.

I have a personal motivation for this.

Za to imam osobnu motivaciju.

Growing up in Perth as an overly cerebral kid ...

Odrastajući u Perthu, kao dijete koje je previše razmišljalo --

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

I would always try and act in the way that I thought was rational,

pokušao sam se ponašati na način za koji sam mislio da je racionalan,

reasoning through every decision,

prosuđujući svaku odluku,

trying to figure out the very best action to take.

pokušavajući shvatiti koja je najbolja aktivnost koju trebam poduzeti.

But this is an approach that doesn't scale up

To je pristup koji se ne može primijeniti na velikim problemima,

when you start to run into the sorts of problems

s onima na koje nailazimo

that arise in adult life.

u životu odraslih.

At one point, I even tried to break up with my girlfriend

U jednom sam trenutku pokušao prekinuti s mojom djevojkom

because trying to take into account her preferences as well as my own

jer su me pokušaji da zadovoljim i njene i svoje sklonosti

and then find perfect solutions --

na najbolji mogući način --

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

was just leaving me exhausted.

potpuno iscrpljivali.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

She pointed out that I was taking the wrong approach

Ona je naglašavala da sam krenuo pogrešnim pristupom

to solving this problem --

u rješavanje problema --

and she later became my wife.

kasnije smo se oženili.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

Whether it's as basic as trying to decide what restaurant to go to

Bez obzira je li banalno poput izbora restorana

or as important as trying to decide who to spend the rest of your life with,

ili važno poput izbora s kim ćete provesti ostatak života,

human lives are filled with computational problems

ljudski životi su ispunjeni računskim problemima

that are just too hard to solve by applying sheer effort.

koje je teško riješiti primjenom malog napora.

For those problems,

Za takve probleme

it's worth consulting the experts:

vrijedi savjetovati se sa stručnjacima:

computer scientists.

računalnim znanstvenicima.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

When you're looking for life advice,

Ako tražite savjet o životu,

computer scientists probably aren't the first people you think to talk to.

računalni znanstvenici vjerojatno nisu prvi izbor za razgovor.

Living life like a computer --

Žive život poput računala --

stereotypically deterministic, exhaustive and exact --

stereotipno određen, iscrpljujuć i precizan --

doesn't sound like a lot of fun.

što ne zvuči baš zabavno.

But thinking about the computer science of human decisions

No razmišljati o računalnoj znanosti ljudskih odluka

reveals that in fact, we've got this backwards.

otkriva da su, u stvari, stvari obrnute.

When applied to the sorts of difficult problems

Kad se primjenjuje na zahtjevne probleme

that arise in human lives,

koji se pojavljuju u ljudskim životima,

the way that computers actually solve those problems

način na koji računala zapravo rješavaju te probleme

looks a lot more like the way that people really act.

više liči na način na koji se ljudi zaista ponašaju.

Take the example of trying to decide what restaurant to go to.

Uzmite, na primjer, pokušaj odabira restorana u koji ćete ići.

This is a problem that has a particular computational structure.

To je problem koji ima osobitu računsku strukturu.

You've got a set of options,

Imate nekoliko mogućnosti,

you're going to choose one of those options,

vi ćete izabrati jednu od njih,

and you're going to face exactly the same decision tomorrow.

a sutra ćete se ponovno susresti s istom odlukom.

In that situation,

U takvoj situaciji

you run up against what computer scientists call

susrećete se s onim što računalni znanstvenici nazivaju

the "explore-exploit trade-off."

"balans traženja i korištenja".

You have to make a decision

Morate donijeti odluku

about whether you're going to try something new --

o tome hoćete li isprobati nešto novo --

exploring, gathering some information

tražiti, prikupljati neke informacije

that you might be able to use in the future --

koje vam mogu biti od koristi u budućnosti --

or whether you're going to go to a place that you already know is pretty good --

ili ćete ići na neko mjesto koje već znate da je dobro --

exploiting the information that you've already gathered so far.

koristeći informacije koje ste prikupili ranije.

The explore/exploit trade-off shows up any time you have to choose

Balans traženja i korištenja se pojavljuje svaki put kad trebamo izabrati

between trying something new

između istraživanja nečeg novog

and going with something that you already know is pretty good,

i korištenja nečeg za što već znamo da je prilično dobro,

whether it's listening to music

bez obzira radi li se o slušanju glazbe

or trying to decide who you're going to spend time with.

ili pokušaju da odredimo s kim ćemo provesti vrijeme.

It's also the problem that technology companies face

To je problem s kojim se susreću tehnološka poduzeća,

when they're trying to do something like decide what ad to show on a web page.

kad pokušavaju odlučiti koji oglas se treba pojaviti na internet stranici.

Should they show a new ad and learn something about it,

Trebaju li pokazati novi oglas i naučiti nešto iz toga,

or should they show you an ad

ili trebaju pokazati oglas

that they already know there's a good chance you're going to click on?

za koji već znaju da ima dobre mogućnosti da se na njega klikne.

Over the last 60 years,

Tijekom prošlih 60 godina

computer scientists have made a lot of progress understanding

računalni znanstvenici su značajno napredovali u razumijevanju

the explore/exploit trade-off,

balansa traženja i korištenja,

and their results offer some surprising insights.

a njihovi rezultati nude neke iznenađujuće uvide.

When you're trying to decide what restaurant to go to,

Kad nastojite odlučiti u koji ćete restoran ići,

the first question you should ask yourself

najprije se trebate zapitati

is how much longer you're going to be in town.

koliko ćete dugo još biti u tom gradu.

If you're just going to be there for a short time,

Ako ćete biti samo još kratko vrijeme,

then you should exploit.

trebali biste se služiti korištenjem.

There's no point gathering information.

Nema smisla skupljati informacije.

Just go to a place you already know is good.

Samo otiđite u restoran za koji već znate da je dobar.

But if you're going to be there for a longer time, explore.

Ako ćete biti tamo duže vrijeme, istražujte.

Try something new, because the information you get

Iskušajte nešto novo, jer su informacije koje ćete prikupiti

is something that can improve your choices in the future.

nešto što će unaprijediti donošenje odluka u budućnosti.

The value of information increases

Vrijednost informacija se povećava

the more opportunities you're going to have to use it.

s povećanjem broja prilika u kojima ćete ih moći koristiti.

This principle can give us insight

Ovo načelo nam također daje uvid

into the structure of a human life as well.

u strukturu ljudskog života.

Babies don't have a reputation for being particularly rational.

Male bebe nisu baš poznate po tome da su posebno racionalne.

They're always trying new things,

Stalno iskušavaju nove stvari i,

and you know, trying to stick them in their mouths.

znate, pokušavaju ih ugurati u usta.

But in fact, this is exactly what they should be doing.

No, to je, zapravo, upravo ono što bi i trebale raditi.

They're in the explore phase of their lives,

One su u istraživačkoj fazi svojih života.

and some of those things could turn out to be delicious.

Neke od tih stvari se mogu pokazati slasnima.

At the other end of the spectrum,

Na drugom kraju spektra,

the old guy who always goes to the same restaurant

starac koji uvijek ide u isti restoran

and always eats the same thing

i uvijek naručuje isto jelo

isn't boring --

se ne dosađuje --

he's optimal.

on optimizira.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

He's exploiting the knowledge that he's earned

On koristi znanje koje je skupio

through a lifetime's experience.

tijekom života.

More generally,

Općenito govoreći,

knowing about the explore/exploit trade-off

znanje o balansu traženja i korištenja

can make it a little easier for you to sort of relax and go easier on yourself

vam može olakšati, opustiti vas, da vam bude lakše

when you're trying to make a decision.

prilikom donošenja odluka.

You don't have to go to the best restaurant every night.

Ne morate ići u najbolji restoran svaku večer.

Take a chance, try something new, explore.

Riskirajte, probajte nešto novo, istražujte.

You might learn something.

Možda ćete nešto naučiti.

And the information that you gain

Informacija koju prikupite

is going to be worth more than one pretty good dinner.

će biti puno važnija nego jedna jako dobra večera.

Computer science can also help to make it easier on us

Računalna znanost nam također može pomoći i olakšati stvari,

in other places at home and in the office.

bilo kod kuće ili u uredu.

If you've ever had to tidy up your wardrobe,

Ako ste ikad trebali pospremiti ormare,

you've run into a particularly agonizing decision:

naletjeli ste na posebno očajan zahtjev:

you have to decide what things you're going to keep

morali ste odlučiti koju ćete odjeću zadržati,

and what things you're going to give away.

a koju ćete dati nekome.

Martha Stewart turns out to have thought very hard about this --

Martha Stewart je jako puno razmišljala o tome --

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

and she has some good advice.

i ima prilično dobrih savjeta.

She says, "Ask yourself four questions:

Kaže: "Pitajte se četiri pitanja:

How long have I had it?

Koliko dugo to već imam?

Does it still function?

Može li se koristiti?

Is it a duplicate of something that I already own?

Je li slično nečemu što također već imam?

And when was the last time I wore it or used it?"

Kad sam zadnji put to obukla?"

But there's another group of experts

No, postoji i druga grupa stručnjaka

who perhaps thought even harder about this problem,

koji su se još više udubili u ovaj problem,

and they would say one of these questions is more important than the others.

i oni bi rekli da je jedno od tih pitanja puno važnije od ostalih.

Those experts?

Ovi stručnjaci?

The people who design the memory systems of computers.

Ljudi koji su osmislili sustave računalnog pamćenja.

Most computers have two kinds of memory systems:

Većina računala ima dva sustava pamćenja:

a fast memory system,

brzi sustav pamćenja,

like a set of memory chips that has limited capacity,

poput kompleta memorijskih čipova ograničenog kapaciteta

because those chips are expensive,

jer su ti čipovi skupi,

and a slow memory system, which is much larger.

i spori sustav pamćenja koji je puno veći.

In order for the computer to operate as efficiently as possible,

Kako bi računalo radilo što djelotvornije,

you want to make sure

želite biti sigurni

that the pieces of information you want to access

da su dijelovi informacija kojima želite pristupiti

are in the fast memory system,

u brzom sustavu pamćenja,

so that you can get to them quickly.

kako biste brzo došli do njih.

Each time you access a piece of information,

Svaki put kad posegnete za dijelom informacije,

it's loaded into the fast memory

ona se učitava u brzu memoriju,

and the computer has to decide which item it has to remove from that memory,

a računalo treba odlučiti koji dio mora maknuti iz te memorije

because it has limited capacity.

jer je ona ograničenog kapaciteta.

Over the years,

Tijekom godina

computer scientists have tried a few different strategies

računalni znanstvenici su pokušali drugačije strategije

for deciding what to remove from the fast memory.

za odlučivanje o tome što maknuti iz brze memorije.

They've tried things like choosing something at random

Pokušali su ideje poput slučajnog odabira

or applying what's called the "first-in, first-out principle,"

ili primjenu načela koje se naziva "prvi unutra, prvi van",

which means removing the item

koji zahtijeva da se makne onaj dio

which has been in the memory for the longest.

koji je najduže bio u memoriji.

But the strategy that's most effective

No, najdjelotvornija je strategija

focuses on the items which have been least recently used.

koja se usredotočila na dijelove koji nisu bili korišteni u bliskoj prošlosti.

This says if you're going to decide to remove something from memory,

Ona kaže da, ako želite nešto maknuti iz pamćenja,

you should take out the thing which was last accessed the furthest in the past.

onda to trebate napraviti s onim dijelom koji je korišten daleko u prošlosti.

And there's a certain kind of logic to this.

Postoji određena logika za to.

If it's been a long time since you last accessed that piece of information,

Prošlo je dosta vremena otkad ste zadnji put pristupili tom dijelu informacije

it's probably going to be a long time

pa je vjerojatno da će proći dugo vremena

before you're going to need to access it again.

prije nego ćete ga ponovno trebati.

Your wardrobe is just like the computer's memory.

Vaš ormar je baš poput računalne memorije.

You have limited capacity,

Imate ograničeni kapacitet

and you need to try and get in there the things that you're most likely to need

i trebate pokušati u njega ugurati one stvari koje ćete najvjerojatnije trebati

so that you can get to them as quickly as possible.

kako biste do njih došli što je prije moguće.

Recognizing that,

Svjesni toga,

maybe it's worth applying the least recently used principle

možda vrijedi primjeniti načelo nedavnog korištenja

to organizing your wardrobe as well.

i za organizaciju ormara.

So if we go back to Martha's four questions,

Ako se vratimo na četiri pitanja koja je postavila Martha,

the computer scientists would say that of these,

računalni znanstvenici bi rekli da je od njih

the last one is the most important.

posljednje pitanje najvažnije.

This idea of organizing things

Ta ideja o organizaciji stvari

so that the things you are most likely to need are most accessible

tako da su stvari koje ćete najvjerojatnije trebati najdostupnije,

can also be applied in your office.

može se primijeniti i u vašem uredu.

The Japanese economist Yukio Noguchi

Japanski ekonomist Yukio Noguchi

actually invented a filing system that has exactly this property.

je izmislio sustav arhiviranja koji ima upravo to svojstvo.

He started with a cardboard box,

Započeo je s kartonskom kutijom

and he put his documents into the box from the left-hand side.

u koju je stavio dokumente s lijeve strane na desnu.

Each time he'd add a document,

Svaki put kad je dodao dokument,

he'd move what was in there along

pomaknuo bi već posložene dokumente

and he'd add that document to the left-hand side of the box.

i dodao taj dokument u kutiju s lijeve strane.

And each time he accessed a document, he'd take it out,

I svaki put kad bi trebao neki dokument, izvukao bi ga van,

consult it and put it back in on the left-hand side.

proučio ga i vratio u kutiju s lijeve strane.

As a result, the documents would be ordered from left to right

Posljedica je da su dokumenti poslagani slijeva na desno

by how recently they had been used.

prema tome koliko nedavno su korišteni.

And he found he could quickly find what he was looking for

Shvatio je da može brzo pronaći ono što traži

by starting at the left-hand side of the box

ako krene tražiti s lijeve strane kutije

and working his way to the right.

i nastavi prema desnoj strani.

Before you dash home and implement this filing system --

Prije nego otrčite kući kako biste primijenili ovaj sustav,

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

it's worth recognizing that you probably already have.

važno je napomenuti da ste to već vjerojatno napravili.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

That pile of papers on your desk ...

Ta hrpa papira na vašem stolu --

typically maligned as messy and disorganized,

obično oklevetana kao neuredna i neorganizirana,

a pile of papers is, in fact, perfectly organized --

je zapravo savršeno organizirana --

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

as long as you, when you take a paper out,

sve dok, nakon što papir koji ste iz nje izvadili,

put it back on the top of the pile,

vratite na vrh hrpe

then those papers are going to be ordered from top to bottom

pa će ti papiri biti poredani od vrha prema dnu

by how recently they were used,

prema načelu nedavnog korištenja,

and you can probably quickly find what you're looking for

a vi, vjerojatno, možete brzo pronaći ono što tražite

by starting at the top of the pile.

ako krenete tražiti s vrha.

Organizing your wardrobe or your desk

Organizirati ormar, odnosno vaš stol,

are probably not the most pressing problems in your life.

vjerojatno nisu najvažniji problemi u vašem životu.

Sometimes the problems we have to solve are simply very, very hard.

Ponekad su problemi koje trebamo riješiti vrlo, vrlo teški.

But even in those cases,

Ali čak i u takvim slučajevima,

computer science can offer some strategies

računalna znanost može ponuditi neke strategije

and perhaps some solace.

i možda malo utjehe.

The best algorithms are about doing what makes the most sense

Najbolji algoritmi su oni koji imaju najviše smisla

in the least amount of time.

u najmanje vremena.

When computers face hard problems,

Kad računala naiđu na problem,

they deal with them by making them into simpler problems --

nose se s njim tako da ga rastave na manje probleme --

by making use of randomness,

koristeći slučajan odabir,

by removing constraints or by allowing approximations.

uklanjanjem ograničenja ili dopuštajući približne vrijednosti.

Solving those simpler problems

Rješavanje tih jednostavnijih problema

can give you insight into the harder problems,

vam može dati uvid u rješavanje onih težih

and sometimes produces pretty good solutions in their own right.

i ponekad dovode do prilično dobrih rješenja u zadanim okvirima.

Knowing all of this has helped me to relax when I have to make decisions.

Znajući to, bilo mi je lakše opustiti se kod donošenja odluka.

You could take the 37 percent rule for finding a home as an example.

Možete, na primjer, uzeti pravilo 37% za pronalaženje doma.

There's no way that you can consider all of the options,

Nema načina da uzmete u obzir sve mogućnosti

so you have to take a chance.

pa morate riskirati.

And even if you follow the optimal strategy,

Čak i korištenje optimalne strategije

you're not guaranteed a perfect outcome.

vam ne jamči savršen ishod.

If you follow the 37 percent rule,

Ako se služite pravilom 37%,

the probability that you find the very best place is --

vjerojatnost da ćete pronaći najbolje mjesto je --

funnily enough ...

zabavno, zar ne? --

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

37 percent.

37 posto.

You fail most of the time.

Griješite većinu vremena.

But that's the best that you can do.

No, to je najbolje što možete učiniti.

Ultimately, computer science can help to make us more forgiving

Konačno, računalna znanost nam može pomoći da postanemo blaži

of our own limitations.

prema našim vlastitim ograničenjima.

You can't control outcomes, just processes.

Ne možete kontrolirati ishode, samo procese.

And as long as you've used the best process,

I dok god koristite najbolje procese,

you've done the best that you can.

učinili ste najbolje što možete.

Sometimes those best processes involve taking a chance --

Ponekad najbolji procesi zahtijevaju i nešto rizika --

not considering all of your options,

jer nisu uzete u obzir sve mogućnosti,

or being willing to settle for a pretty good solution.

ili volja da se odlučite za prilično dobro rješenje.

These aren't the concessions that we make when we can't be rational --

Nisu to ustupci koje radimo kada ne možemo biti racionalni --

they're what being rational means.

oni, zapravo, predstavljaju racionalnost.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)