Nicolas Perony: Puppies! Now that I've got your attention, complexity theory

Prevodilac: Marko Stojiljkovic Lektor: Ivana Korom

Science,

Nauka,

science has allowed us to know so much

nauka nam je omogućila da toliko saznamo

about the far reaches of the universe,

o granicama univerzuma,

which is at the same time tremendously important

što je ujedno izuzetno važno

and extremely remote,

i veoma daleko,

and yet much, much closer,

a s druge strane mnogo, mnogo bliže,

much more directly related to us,

mnogo više direktno povezano sa nama

there are many things we don't really understand.

da mnoge stvari ne razumemo u potpunosti.

And one of them is the extraordinary

I jedna od njih je zapanjujuća

social complexity of the animals around us,

društvena kompleksnost životinja koje nas okružuju,

and today I want to tell you a few stories

i danas želim da vam ispričam nekoiko priča

of animal complexity.

u vezi sa životinjskom kompleksnošću.

But first, what do we call complexity?

Ali prvo, šta je to kompleksnost?

What is complex?

Šta je kompleks?

Well, complex is not complicated.

Kompleks nije komplikovanost.

Something complicated comprises many small parts,

Nešto komplikovano je sačinjeno od više manjih delova,

all different, and each of them

različitih, a svaki od njih

has its own precise role in the machinery.

ima tačno utvrđenu ulogu u mašineriji.

On the opposite, a complex system

Sa druge strane, kompleksan sistem

is made of many, many similar parts,

je sačinjen od velikog broja sličnih delova,

and it is their interaction

i njihova međusobna interakcija

that produces a globally coherent behavior.

je ta koja proizvodi celokupno koherentno ponašanje.

Complex systems have many interacting parts

Kompleksni sistemi imaju mnogo interaktivnih delova

which behave according to simple, individual rules,

koji se ponašaju u skladu sa jednostavnim, pojedinačnim pravilima,

and this results in emergent properties.

a to rezultira pojavom sistemskih svojstava.

The behavior of the system as a whole

Ponašanje sistema kao celine

cannot be predicted

ne može se predvideti

from the individual rules only.

posmatranjem pojedinačnih pravila.

As Aristotle wrote,

Kao što je Aristotel napisao,

the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

"celina je veća od zbira njenih sastavnih delova".

But from Aristotle, let's move onto

Sa Aristotela ćemo preći

a more concrete example of complex systems.

na konkretniji primer kompleksnog sistema.

These are Scottish terriers.

Ovo su škotski terijeri.

In the beginning, the system is disorganized.

Na početku sistem je neorganizovan,

Then comes a perturbation: milk.

Onda dolazi do zbrke: mleko.

Every individual starts pushing in one direction

Svako od njih počinje da gura u jednom pravcu

and this is what happens.

i evo šta se dešava.

The pinwheel is an emergent property

Vetrenjača je sistemsko svojstvo

of the interactions between puppies

uzajamnog delovanja štenaca

whose only rule is to try to keep access to the milk

čije je jedino pravilo da zadrže pristup mleku

and therefore to push in a random direction.

i zato guraju u nasumičnom pravcu.

So it's all about finding the simple rules

Radi se o nalaženju jednostavnih pravila

from which complexity emerges.

iz kojih kompleksnost proizilazi.

I call this simplifying complexity,

Ja ovo zovem uprošćavanjem složenosti,

and it's what we do at the chair of systems design

i to je ono što mi na čelu projektovanja sistema radimo

at ETH Zurich.

na ETH univerzitetu u Cirihu.

We collect data on animal populations,

Skupljamo podatke o životinjskoj populaciji,

analyze complex patterns, try to explain them.

analiziramo kompleksne obrasce, pokušavamo da ih objasnimo.

It requires physicists who work with biologists,

Potrebni su fizičari koji rade sa biolozima,

with mathematicians and computer scientists,

sa matematičarima i kompjuterskim naučnicima,

and it is their interaction that produces

i njihova interakcija proizvodi

cross-boundary competence

međugraničnu kompetenciju

to solve these problems.

za rešavanje ovih problema.

So again, the whole is greater

Još jednom, celina je veća

than the sum of the parts.

od zbira njenih sastavnih delova.

In a way, collaboration

Na neki način, saradnja

is another example of a complex system.

je još jedan primer kompleksnog sistema.

And you may be asking yourself

Možda ćete se zapitati

which side I'm on, biology or physics?

na čijoj sam strani, biologa ili fizičara?

In fact, it's a little different,

Zapravo, malo je drugačije,

and to explain, I need to tell you

i da bih objasnio moraću da vam ispričam

a short story about myself.

kratku priču o sebi.

When I was a child,

Kad sam bio dete,

I loved to build stuff, to create complicated machines.

voleo sam da gradim stvari, da pravim složene mašine.

So I set out to study electrical engineering

Te sam otišao da studiram električno inženjerstvo

and robotics,

i robotiku,

and my end-of-studies project

i moj projekat na kraju studija

was about building a robot called ER-1 --

je bio pravljenje robota nazvanog ER-1

it looked like this—

koji je izgledao ovako

that would collect information from its environment

koji bi sakupljao informacije iz svog okruženja

and proceed to follow a white line on the ground.

i koji bi pratio belu liniju na zemlji.

It was very, very complicated,

Bio je vrlo, vrlo složen,

but it worked beautifully in our test room,

ali je odlično radio u našoj sobi za testiranje,

and on demo day, professors had assembled to grade the project.

i na dan prezentovanja, profesori su se okupili da ocene projekat,

So we took ER-1 to the evaluation room.

Odneli smo ER-1 u sobu za procenu.

It turned out, the light in that room

Ispostavilo se da je svetlo u toj sobi

was slightly different.

malo drugačije.

The robot's vision system got confused.

Robotov vidni sistem se poremetio.

At the first bend in the line,

Pri prvom savijanju na liniji,

it left its course, and crashed into a wall.

skrenuo je s puta i zakucao se u zid.

We had spent weeks building it,

Proveli smo nedelje praveći ga,

and all it took to destroy it

i sve što je bilo potrebno da ga uništi

was a subtle change in the color of the light

je neznatna promena u boji svetla

in the room.

u sobi.

That's when I realized that

Upravo tada sam shvatio

the more complicated you make a machine,

da što složeniju mašinu napraviš,

the more likely that it will fail

veća je šansa da neće uspeti

due to something absolutely unexpected.

zbog nečeg sasvim neočekivanog.

And I decided that, in fact,

I odlučio sam, da zapravo,

I didn't really want to create complicated stuff.

nisam želeo da pravim komplikovane stvari.

I wanted to understand complexity,

Želeo sam da razumem kompleksnost,

the complexity of the world around us

kompleksnost sveta oko nas,

and especially in the animal kingdom.

a posebno u životinjskom carstvu.

Which brings us to bats.

Što nas dovodi do slepih miševa.

Bechstein's bats are a common species of European bats.

Bahtinov slepi miš je česta vrsta u Evropi.

They are very social animals.

Oni su vrlo društvene životinje.

Mostly they roost, or sleep, together.

Obično se gnezde i spavaju zajedno.

And they live in maternity colonies,

I žive u materinskoj koloniji,

which means that every spring,

što znači da svakog proleća,

the females meet after the winter hibernation,

ženke se sastaju nakon zimske hibernacije

and they stay together for about six months

i ostaju zajedno oko 6 meseci

to rear their young,

da odgajaju mlade,

and they all carry a very small chip,

i sve one nose vrlo mali čip,

which means that every time one of them

što znači da kad god jedna od njih

enters one of these specially equipped bat boxes,

uđe u jednu od ovih specijalno opremljenih kutija

we know where she is,

znamo gde je,

and more importantly,

i što je važnije,

we know with whom she is.

znamo s kim je.

So I study roosting associations in bats,

Ja proučavam zajednice koje se gnezde zajedno,

and this is what it looks like.

i to izgleda ovako.

During the day, the bats roost

Tokom dana slepi miševi se gnezde

in a number of sub-groups in different boxes.

u mnogobrojnim podgrupama u različitim kutijama.

It could be that on one day,

Može se desiti da je jednog dana

the colony is split between two boxes,

kolonija podeljena u dve kutije,

but on another day,

ali drugog dana

it could be together in a single box,

su možda zajedno u jednoj kutiji,

or split between three or more boxes,

ili su raspoređeni u 3 ili više kutija,

and that all seems rather erratic, really.

i sve to izgleda prilično haotično.

It's called fission-fusion dynamics,

To se zove dinamika fizije i fuzije,

the property for an animal group

svojstvo grupe životinja

of regularly splitting and merging

koje se često razdvajaju i sastavljaju

into different subgroups.

u različite podgrupe.

So what we do is take all these data

Mi sakupimo ove podatke

from all these different days

iz svih ovih različitih dana

and pool them together

i spojimo ih

to extract a long-term association pattern

da bismo izvukli dugoročne šablone povezivanja

by applying techniques with network analysis

primenjujući tehnike analize mreže

to get a complete picture

da bismo dobili celokupnu sliku

of the social structure of the colony.

društvene strukture kolonije.

Okay? So that's what this picture looks like.

U redu? Ovako izgleda ova slika.

In this network, all the circles

U ovoj mreži, svi krugovi

are nodes, individual bats,

su čvorovi, pojedinačni slepi miševi,

and the lines between them

a linije između njih

are social bonds, associations between individuals.

su društvene veze, povezanost između jedinki.

It turns out this is a very interesting picture.

Ispostavlja se da je ovo vrlo interesantna slika.

This bat colony is organized

Ova kolonija slepih miševa je podeljena

in two different communities

na dve različite zajednice

which cannot be predicted

koje ne mogu da se predvide

from the daily fission-fusion dynamics.

iz dnevne dinamike fizije i fuzije.

We call them cryptic social units.

Zovemo ih kodirane društvene jedinice.

Even more interesting, in fact:

Što je još interesantnije,

Every year, around October,

svake godine, oko oktobra,

the colony splits up,

kolonija se raziđe,

and all bats hibernate separately,

i svi slepi miševi hiberniraju odvojeno,

but year after year,

ali godinu za godinom

when the bats come together again in the spring,

kada se u proleće ponovo okupe

the communities stay the same.

zajednice ostaju iste.

So these bats remember their friends

Ovi slepi miševi pamte svoje prijatelje

for a really long time.

veoma dugo.

With a brain the size of a peanut,

Sa mozgom veličine kikirikija,

they maintain individualized,

oni čuvaju samostalne,

long-term social bonds,

dugoročne društvene veze.

We didn't know that was possible.

Nismo znali da je to moguće.

We knew that primates

Znali smo da primati

and elephants and dolphins could do that,

i slonovi, i delfini mogu to da rade,

but compared to bats, they have huge brains.

ali u poređenju sa slepim miševima imaju ogromne mozgove.

So how could it be

Pa kako je moguće

that the bats maintain this complex,

da slepi miševi održavaju kompleksne,

stable social structure

stabilne društvene strukture

with such limited cognitive abilities?

uz tako ograničene kognitivne sposobnosti?

And this is where complexity brings an answer.

I upravo ovde nam kompleksnost daje odgovor.

To understand this system,

Da bismo razumeli ovaj sistem,

we built a computer model of roosting,

napravili smo kompjuterski model gnežđenja,

based on simple, individual rules,

zasnovan na jednostavnim, pojedinačnim pravilima

and simulated thousands and thousands of days

i simuliranim hiljadama dana

in the virtual bat colony.

u virtuelnoj koloniji slepih miševa.

It's a mathematical model,

To je matematički model,

but it's not complicated.

ali nije komplikovan.

What the model told us is that, in a nutshell,

Model nam je pokazao da, ukratko,

each bat knows a few other colony members

svaki slepi miš zna nekoliko pripadnika druge kolonije

as her friends, and is just slightly more likely

kao svoje prijatelje i verovatnije je da će

to roost in a box with them.

se sa njima gnezditi u kutiji.

Simple, individual rules.

Jednostavna, pojedinačna pravila.

This is all it takes to explain

Ovo je sve što je potrebno da bi se objasnila

the social complexity of these bats.

društvena kompleksnost ovih slepih miševa.

But it gets better.

Ali postaje bolje.

Between 2010 and 2011,

Između 2010. i 2011,

the colony lost more than two thirds of its members,

kolonija je izgubila više od dve trećine svojih članova,

probably due to the very cold winter.

verovatno zbog veoma hladne zime.

The next spring, it didn't form two communities

Naredne godine, nisu oformili dve zajednice,

like every year,

kao svake godine,

which may have led the whole colony to die

što bi možda dovelo do izumiranja cele kolonije

because it had become too small.

jer je bila previše mala.

Instead, it formed a single, cohesive social unit,

Umesto toga, oformili su jednu kohezivnu duštvenu grupu

which allowed the colony to survive that season

koja je omogućila koloniji da preživi tu sezonu

and thrive again in the next two years.

i da napreduje sledeće dve godine.

What we know is that the bats

Znamo da slepi miševi

are not aware that their colony is doing this.

nisu svesni da kolonija ovo radi.

All they do is follow simple association rules,

Oni samo prate jednostavna pravila povezivanja,

and from this simplicity

i iz ove jednostavnosti

emerges social complexity

proizilazi društvena kompleksnost

which allows the colony to be resilient

koja omogućava koloniji da bude otpornija

against dramatic changes in the population structure.

na dramatične promene u promeni populacije.

And I find this incredible.

I meni je ovo neverovatno.

Now I want to tell you another story,

Sada želim da vam ispričam još jednu priču,

but for this we have to travel from Europe

ali moramo da putujemo iz Evrope

to the Kalahari Desert in South Africa.

u pustinju Kalahari u Južnoj Africi.

This is where meerkats live.

Ovde žive merkati.

I'm sure you know meerkats.

Siguran sam da znate šta su merkati.

They're fascinating creatures.

Oni su fascinantna bića.

They live in groups with a very strict social hierarchy.

Žive u grupama sa vrlo striktnom društvenom hijerarhijom.

There is one dominant pair,

Postoji jedan dominantan par,

and many subordinates,

i mnogo podređenih,

some acting as sentinels,

neki su stražari,

some acting as babysitters,

neki su dadilje,

some teaching pups, and so on.

drugi podučavaju mlade, i tako dalje.

What we do is put very small GPS collars

Mi smo stavili vrlo male GPS ogrlice

on these animals

ovim životinjama

to study how they move together,

da bismo proučavali kako se kreću zajedno,

and what this has to do with their social structure.

i kakve ovo ima veze sa njihovom društvenom strukturom.

And there's a very interesting example

I postoji vrlo interesantan primer

of collective movement in meerkats.

kolektivnog kretanja merkata.

In the middle of the reserve which they live in

Na sredini rezervata u kome žive

lies a road.

postoji put.

On this road there are cars, so it's dangerous.

Na ovom putu ima automobila, znači opasno je.

But the meerkats have to cross it

Ali merkati moraju da ga pređu

to get from one feeding place to another.

da bi prešli s jednog mesta hranjenja na drugo.

So we asked, how exactly do they do this?

Pa smo se zapitali, kako tačno oni to postižu?

We found that the dominant female

Otkrili smo da je dominantna ženka

is mostly the one who leads the group to the road,

uglavnom ta koja predvodi grupu do puta,

but when it comes to crossing it, crossing the road,

ali što se tiče prelaženja puta,

she gives way to the subordinates,

daje prednost podređenima,

a manner of saying,

kao da im govori:

"Go ahead, tell me if it's safe."

"Ajde idi, kaži mi da li je bezbedno."

What I didn't know, in fact,

Ono što nisam znao, je zapravo

was what rules in their behavior the meerkats follow

koja pravila ponašanja merkati slede

for this change at the edge of the group to happen

prilikom ove promene na ivici grupe

and if simple rules were sufficient to explain it.

i da li su jednostavna pravila dovoljna da to objasne.

So I built a model, a model of simulated meerkats

Tako sam napravio model, model simuliranih merkata

crossing a simulated road.

koji prelaze simulirani put.

It's a simplistic model.

To je pojednostavljen model.

Moving meerkats are like random particles

Merkati koji se kreću su kao nasumične čestice

whose unique rule is one of alignment.

čije je jedinstveno pravilo da se poravnaju.

They simply move together.

Oni se jednostavno kreću zajedno.

When these particles get to the road,

Kad ove čestice dođu do puta,

they sense some kind of obstacle,

one osete neku vrstu prepreke,

and they bounce against it.

i odbiju se o nju.

The only difference

Jedina razlika između

between the dominant female, here in red,

dominantne ženke, ovde prikazane crveno,

and the other individuals,

i ostalih jedinki,

is that for her, the height of the obstacle,

je ta što je za nju visina prepreke,

which is in fact the risk perceived from the road,

što je zapravo rizik koji predstavlja put,

is just slightly higher,

neznatno veća,

and this tiny difference

i ova mala razlika

in the individual's rule of movement

u indvidiualnom pravilu kretanja

is sufficient to explain what we observe,

je dovoljna da se objasni ono što vidimo,

that the dominant female

da dominantna ženka

leads her group to the road

vodi njenu grupu do puta,

and then gives way to the others

a onda daje prednost drugima

for them to cross first.

kako bi oni prešli prvi.

George Box, who was an English statistician,

Džordž Boks, engleski statističar,

once wrote, "All models are false,

jednom je napisao: "Svi modeli su lažni,

but some models are useful."

ali neki su korisni."

And in fact, this model is obviously false,

I zapravo, ovaj model je očigledno lažan,

because in reality, meerkats are anything but random particles.

jer u stvarnosti, merkati su sve osim nasumičnih čestica.

But it's also useful,

Ali je takođe koristan,

because it tells us that extreme simplicity

jer nam otkriva da ekstremna jednostavnost

in movement rules at the individual level

u pravilima kretanja na nivou jedinke

can result in a great deal of complexity

može rezultirati velikom kompleksnošću

at the level of the group.

na nivou grupe.

So again, that's simplifying complexity.

Ponovo, to je uprošćavanje kompleksnosti.

I would like to conclude

Želeo bih da dam zaključak o tome

on what this means for the whole species.

zašto je ovo važno za celu vrstu.

When the dominant female

Kad dominantna ženka

gives way to a subordinate,

da prednost podređenom

it's not out of courtesy.

to nije iz pristojnosti.

In fact, the dominant female

Zapravo, dominantna ženka

is extremely important for the cohesion of the group.

je ekstremno važna za koheziju grupe.

If she dies on the road, the whole group is at risk.

Ako ona umre na putu cela grupa je izložena riziku.

So this behavior of risk avoidance

Ovo ponašanje izbegavanja rizika

is a very old evolutionary response.

je vrlo star evolutivni odgovor.

These meerkats are replicating an evolved tactic

Ovi merkati oponašaju naprednu taktiku

that is thousands of generations old,

koja je stara hiljadama generacija,

and they're adapting it to a modern risk,

i prilagođavaju je savremenim rizicima,

in this case a road built by humans.

u ovom slučaju putu koji su izgradili ljudi.

They adapt very simple rules,

Prilagođavaju vrlo jednostavna pravila,

and the resulting complex behavior

i rezultirajuće kompleksno ponašanje

allows them to resist human encroachment

im omogućava da se odupru ljudskom prodiranju

into their natural habitat.

u njihovo prirodno stanište.

In the end,

Na kraju,

it may be bats which change their social structure

to mogu biti slepi miševi koji menjaju društvenu strukturu

in response to a population crash,

kao odgovor na smanjenje populacije,

or it may be meerkats

ili merkati,

who show a novel adaptation to a human road,

koji pokazuju neviđene adaptacije na ljudski put,

or it may be another species.

ili to može biti druga vrsta.

My message here -- and it's not a complicated one,

Moja poruka ovde, i nije komplikovana,

but a simple one of wonder and hope --

već jednostavna, puna čuđenja i nadanja.

my message here is that animals

Moja poruka je da životinje

show extraordinary social complexity,

pokazuju neverovatnu društvenu kompleksnost

and this allows them to adapt

i to im omogućava da se prilagode

and respond to changes in their environment.

i odgovore na promene u njihovom okruženju.

In three words, in the animal kingdom,

U tri reči, u životinjskom carstvu,

simplicity leads to complexity

jednostavnost vodi kompleksnosti

which leads to resilience.

što vodi do otpornosti.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Dania Gerhardt: Thank you very much, Nicolas,

Dania Gerhard: Nikolase, mnogo ti hvala

for this great start. Little bit nervous?

na ovom sjajnom početku. Malo si nervozan?

Nicolas Perony: I'm okay, thanks.

Nikola Peroni: Dobro sam, hvala.

DG: Okay, great. I'm sure a lot of people in the audience

DG: Super. Sigurna sam da su mnogi ljudi iz publike

somehow tried to make associations

pokušali da pronađu vezu

between the animals you were talking about --

između životinja koje si pominjao -

the bats, meerkats -- and humans.

slepih miševa, merkata - i ljudi.

You brought some examples:

Izneo si neke primere:

The females are the social ones,

ženke su društvene,

the females are the dominant ones,

ženke su dominantne,

I'm not sure who thinks how.

nisam sigurna ko kako razmišlja.

But is it okay to do these associations?

Da li je u redu praviti te asocijacije?

Are there stereotypes you can confirm in this regard

Da li ovde postoje stereotipi

that can be valid across all species?

koji važe za sve vrste?

NP: Well, I would say there are also

NP: Pa, rekao bih da postoje

counter-examples to these stereotypes.

i suprotni primeri ovim stereotipima.

For examples, in sea horses or in koalas, in fact,

Na primer, kod morskih konja i koala,

it is the males who take care of the young always.

mužjaci su zapravo ti koji uvek brinu o mladuncima.

And the lesson is that it's often difficult,

Naravoučenije je, da je često teško,

and sometimes even a bit dangerous,

a ponekad i pomalo opasno,

to draw parallels between humans and animals.

povlačiti paralele između ljudi i životinja.

So that's it.

To je to.

DG: Okay. Thank you very much for this great start.

DG: U redu. Mnogo ti hvala za ovaj sjajan početak.

Thank you, Nicolas Perony.

Hvala, Nikola Peroni.