Inside the world's deepest caves | Bill Stone

82,166 views ・ 2007-06-28

TED


Dvaput kliknite na engleske titlove ispod za reprodukciju videozapisa.

Prevoditelj: Ivan Majstorovic Recezent: Nenad Maljković
00:26
First place I'd like to take you
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Prvo vas želim odvesti do,
00:27
is what many believe will be the world's deepest natural abyss.
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što mnogi vjeruju, najdubljeg svjetskog ponora.
00:31
And I say believe because this process is still ongoing.
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I kažem vjeruju zato što ovaj proces još traje.
00:34
Right now there are major expeditions being planned for next year
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Trenutno se planiraju velike ekspedicije za iduću godinu,
00:38
that I'll talk a little bit about.
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o čemu ću nešto reći.
00:40
One of the things that's changed here,
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Jedna od stvari koje su se promijenile,
00:42
in the last 150 years since Jules Verne
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u posljednjih 150 godina otkako je Jules Verne
00:45
had great science-fiction concepts of what the underworld was like,
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zamislio kako izgleda podzemni svijet,
00:48
is that technology has enabled us to go to these places
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je i to da nam je danas tehnologija omogućila da odemo na mjesta
00:52
that were previously completely unknown and speculated about.
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koja su do nedavno bila potpuno nepoznata i o kojima se nagađalo.
00:56
We can now descend thousands of meters into the Earth with relative impunity.
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Sada se možemo spustiti na tisuće metara u Zemlju s relativno malo truda.
01:01
Along the way we've discovered fantastic abysses and chambers so large
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Usput smo otkrili fantastične ponore i komore tako velike
01:07
that you can see for hundreds of meters
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da u njima pogled seže na stotine metara
01:09
without a break in the line of sight.
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bez ikakvih prepreka.
01:12
When you go on a thing like this, we can usually be in the field
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Kada odemo na ovakvu ekspediciju, na terenu znamo biti
01:14
for anywhere from two to four months,
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od dva do četiri mjeseca,
01:16
with a team as small as 20 or 30, to as big as 150.
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u maloj grupi od 20-ak ili 30-ak osoba, pa do velikih grupa od 150.
01:21
And a lot of people ask me, you know,
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Znate, mnogi me pitaju,
01:25
what kind of people do you get for a project like this?
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kakvi se osobe javljaju za ovakve projekte?
01:27
While our selection process
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Iako naš proces selekcije
01:30
is not as rigorous as NASA, it's nonetheless thorough.
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nije rigorozan kao u NASA-i, nije ništa manje temeljit.
01:33
We're looking for competence, discipline, endurance, and strength.
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Tražimo sposobnost, disciplinu, izdržljivost i snagu.
01:38
In case you're wondering, this is our strength test.
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Ako se pitate, ovo je naš test snage.
01:40
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
01:42
But we also value esprit de corps
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Ali također cijenimo duh zajedništva
01:46
and the ability to diplomatically resolve inter-personal conflict
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i sposobnost diplomatskog rješavanja osobnih sukoba
01:50
while under great stress in remote locations.
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pod velikim stresom u udaljenim lokacijama.
01:54
We have already gone far beyond the limits of human endurance.
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Već smo daleko nadišli granice ljudske izdržljivosti.
01:58
From the entrance, this is nothing like a commercial cave.
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Već od samog ulaza, ovo nimalo ne nalikuje na turističku spilju.
02:02
You're looking at Camp Two in a place called J2, not K2, but J2.
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Gledate u Logor 2 u mjestu koje se zove J2; ne K2, već J2.
02:06
We're roughly two days from the entrance at that point.
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Tu smo na nekih dva dana od ulaza.
02:10
And it's kind of like a high altitude mountaineering trip in reverse,
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To je poput obrnutog uspona na visoku planinu,
02:14
except that you're now running a string of these things down.
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osim što spuštate niz ovih stvari dolje.
02:16
The idea is to try to provide some measure of physical comfort
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Ideja je donekle osigurati fizičku udobnost
02:20
while you're down there, otherwise in damp, moist, cold conditions in utterly dark places.
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dok si tamo dolje, u inače vlažnim i hladnim uvjetima potpuno mračnih mjesta.
02:26
I should mention that everything you're seeing here, by the way,
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Usput, moram napomenuti, da je sve što gledate
02:29
is artificially illuminated at great effort.
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umjetno osvjetljeno uz veliki trud i napor.
02:32
Otherwise it is completely dark in these places.
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Tu je inače potpuni mrak.
02:34
The deeper you go, the more you run into a conflict with water.
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Što se dublje spuštate to vam voda više smeta.
02:39
It's basically like a tree collecting water coming down.
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To je poput grana koje skupljaju vodu koja curi dolje.
02:43
And eventually you get to places where it is formidable and dangerous
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I naposljetku dođete do mjesta koja su iznimno zahtjevna i opasna,
02:47
and unfortunately slides just don't do justice.
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nažalost, tu fotografije ne mogu dočarati stvarno stanje.
02:50
So I've got a very brief clip here that was taken in the late 1980s.
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Zato sam pripremio kratki video koji je snimljen kasnih 80-ih.
02:55
So descend into Huautla Plateau in Mexico.
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Spust na visoravani Huautla u Meksiku.
02:58
(Video)
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(video)
03:02
Now I have to tell you that the techniques being shown here
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Moram vam napomenuti da su tehnike koje ovdje vidite
03:05
are obsolete and dangerous.
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zastarjele i opasne.
03:07
We would not do this today unless we were doing it for film.
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Danas ovo ne bi radili osim ako to ne bi bilo za potrebe filma.
03:11
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
03:15
Along that same line, I have to tell you
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Da nastavim misao, moram vam reći
03:17
that with the spate of Hollywood movies that came out last year,
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da s obzirom na holivudske filmove koji su izašli prošle godine,
03:20
we have never seen monsters underground --
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nikada nismo vidjeli čudovišta u podzemlju,
03:24
at least the kind that eat you.
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barem ne ona koja bi vas pojela.
03:26
If there is a monster underground,
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Ako ispod postoji čudovište,
03:30
it is the crushing psychological remoteness
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onda je to ogroman psihološki pritisak zbog udaljenosti i izolacije
03:33
that begins to hit every member of the team
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koji spopadne svakog člana tima
03:35
once you cross about three days inbound from the nearest entrance.
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nakon nekih tri dana od najbližeg ulaza.
03:40
Next year I'll be leading an international team to J2.
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Sljedeće godine vodit ću međunarodni tim u J2.
03:44
We're going to be shooting from minus 2,600 meters --
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Snimat ćemo na dubiti od 2.600 metara -
03:46
that's a little over 8,600 feet down --
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što je nešto više od 8.600 stopa pod zemljom -
03:49
at 30 kilometers from the entrance.
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na oko 30 kilometara od ulaza.
03:51
The lead crews will be underground for pushing 30 days straight.
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Vodeće skupine će u podzemlju provesti 30 dana u komadu.
03:55
I don't think there's been a mission like that in a long time.
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Mislim da takve misije nije bilo već jako dugo.
03:58
Eventually, if you keep going down in these things,
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S vremenom, ako se nastavite spuštati u ovome,
04:00
probability says that you're going to run into a place like this.
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vjerojatno je da ćete naletiti na ovakvo mjesto.
04:03
It's a place where there's a fold in the geologic stratum
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To je mjesto gdje je postoji nabor u geološkom stratumu
04:07
that collects water and fills to the roof.
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u kojem se nakuplja voda i potpuno ispuni prostoriju.
04:09
And when you used to find these things,
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Nekada, kada bi naišli na ovakvo nešto,
04:12
they would put a label on a map that said terminal siphon.
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na kartu bi stavili oznaku na kojoj bi pisalo - krajnji sifon.
04:15
Now I remember that term really well for two reasons.
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Ja sam dobro zapamtio taj pojam iz dva razloga.
04:17
Number one, it's the name of my rock band, and second,
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Kao prvo, to je naziv mog rock benda (Terminal Siphon), a kao drugo,
04:20
is because the confrontation of these things
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zato što me je susretanje s takvim pojavama
04:23
forced me to become an inventor.
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prisililo da postanem izumitelj.
04:25
And we've since gone on to develop
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Tako da smo u međuvremenu razvili
04:28
many generations of gadgets for exploring places like this.
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nekoliko generacija naprava za istraživanje takvih mjesta.
04:31
This is some life-support equipment closed-cycle.
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Ovo je oprema zatvorenog ciklusa za održavanje života -
04:34
And you can use that now to go for many kilometers horizontally
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pomoću nje možete preći nekoliko kilometara vodoravno
04:37
underwater and to depths of 200 meters straight down underwater.
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ispod vode i ići do 200 metara duboko.
04:41
When you do this kind of stuff it's like doing EVA.
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Kada radite ovakvo nešto, to je poput
04:44
It's like doing extra-vehicular activity in space,
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šetnje izvan letjelice u svemiru,
04:47
but at much greater distances, and at much greater physical peril.
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samo na daleko većim udaljenostima i uz puno veću opasnost.
04:51
So it makes you think about how to design your equipment
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Zato trebate dobro razmislite o konstrukciji svoje opreme
04:53
for long range, away from a safe haven.
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koja vam treba služiti na velikim udaljenostima od sigurnog utočišta.
04:56
Here's a clip from a National Geographic movie
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Ovo je isječak iz filma National Geographic-a
04:58
that came out in 1999.
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objavljenog 1999.
05:00
(Video) Narrator: Exploration is a physical process
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- "Istraživanje je fizički proces
05:02
of putting your foot in places where humans have never stepped before.
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u kojem kročite na mjesta kojima čovjek nikada prije nije kročio.
05:06
This is where the last little nugget of totally unknown territory remains on this planet.
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Ovdje su posljednji djelići potpuno nepoznatog teritorija na ovom planetu.
05:11
To experience it is a privilege.
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Iskusiti takvo što je povlastica."
05:18
Bill Stone: That was taken in Wakulla Springs, Florida.
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To je snimljeno u izvorištu rijeke Wakula na Floridi.
05:22
Couple of things to note about that movie. Every piece of equipment
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Bitno je nešto napomenuti vezano za ovaj film: niti jedan komad opreme
05:26
that you saw in there did not exist before 1999.
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koji ste vidjeli na filmu nije postojao prije 1999.
05:28
It was developed within a two-year period and used on actual exploratory projects.
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Razvijen je za dvije godine i korišten na stvarnim istraživačkim projektima.
05:33
This gadget you see right here was called the digital wall mapper,
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Naprava koju ovdje vidite zove se digitalni maper zidova -
05:36
and it produced the first three-dimensional map anybody has ever done
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i stvorila je prvu, ikad napravljenu, trodimenzionalnu mapu spilje,
05:40
of a cave, and it happened to be underwater in Wakulla Springs.
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a to je bilo ispod površine vode u izvorištu Wakule.
05:43
It was that gadget that serendipitously opened a door
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Ta je naprava sretnom slučajnošću otvorila vrata
05:47
to another unexplored world.
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u jedan drugi neistraženi svijet.
05:48
This is Europa.
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Ovo je Europa.
05:52
Carolyn Porco mentioned another one called Enceladus the other day.
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Carolyn Porco je neki dan spomenula drugi satelit imena Enceladus.
05:56
This is one of the places where planetary scientists
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Ovo je jedno od mjesta za koje planetarni znanstvenici
05:59
believe there is a highest probability of the detection
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vjeruju da tu postoji najveća vjerojatnost za otkrivanje
06:01
of the first life off earth in the ocean that exists below there.
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izvanzemaljskog života - u oceanu koji se tamo nalazi ispod površine.
06:05
For those who have never seen this story,
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Za one koji nisu nikad vidjeli ovu priču,
06:07
Jim Cameron produced a really wonderful IMAX movie
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Jim Cameron je napravio stvarno predivan IMAX film
06:10
couple of years ago, called "Aliens of the Deep."
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prije nekoliko godina, nazvao ga je "Tuđinci dubina".
06:12
There was a brief clip --
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Evo kratkog isječka...
06:16
(Video) Narrator: A mission to explore under the ice of Europa
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- "Istraživačka misija ispod ledenog pokrivača Europe
06:18
would be the ultimate robotic challenge.
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bila bi ultimativni izazov za robotiku.
06:24
Europa is so far away that even at the speed of light,
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Europa je toliko daleko da bi čak i pri brzini svjetlosti,
06:30
it would take more than an hour for the command just to reach the vehicle.
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poslanoj naredbi bilo potrebno više od jednog sata samo da dođe do vozila.
06:34
It has to be smart enough to avoid terrain hazards
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Ono mora biti dovoljno pametno da izbjegne opasnosti terena
06:37
and to find a good landing site on the ice.
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i da pronađe odgovarajuće mjesto za slijetanje na ledu.
06:49
Now we have to get through the ice.
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Zatim moramo nekako proći kroz led.
06:52
You need a melt probe.
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Za to nam treba sonda za taljenje.
06:54
It's basically a nuclear-heated torpedo.
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U osnovi je to nuklearno grijani torpedo.
07:07
The ice could be anywhere from three to 16 miles deep.
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Led bi mogao biti debljine između pet i 25 kilometara.
07:11
Week after week, the melt probe will sink of its own weight
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Tjedan za tjednom, sonda bi tonula plod vlastitom težinom
07:14
through the ancient ice, until finally --
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kroz drevni led, dok konačno...
07:23
Now, what are you going to do when you reach the surface of that ocean?
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A što napraviti kada dođete do površine tog oceana?
07:29
You need an AUV, an autonomous underwater vehicle.
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Treba vam APV, autonomno podvodno vozilo.
07:34
It needs to be one smart puppy, able to navigate
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Ono treba biti pravi Baltazar, mora biti u stanju navigirati
07:36
and make decisions on its own in an alien ocean.
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i samostalno donositi odluke u stranom oceanu."
07:41
BS: What Jim didn't know when he released that movie
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Ono što Jim nije znao kad je objavio taj film
07:43
was that six months earlier NASA had funded a team I assembled
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bilo je da je šest mjeseci ranije NASA financirala moj tim
07:48
to develop a prototype for the Europa AUV.
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za razvoj prototipa za Europin APV.
07:51
I mean, I cut through three years of engineering meetings, design
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Mislim, preskočio sam 3 godine inženjerskih sastanaka, dizajna
07:56
and system integration, and introduced DEPTHX --
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i sistemske integracije i predstavljam DEPTHX -
07:59
Deep Phreatic Thermal Explorer.
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Dubinski termički istraživač podzemnih voda.
08:01
And as the movie says, this is one smart puppy.
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I kako kaže film, ovo je pravi mali Baltazar.
08:04
It's got 96 sensors, 36 onboard computers,
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Ima 96 senzora, 36 računala,
08:09
100,000 lines of behavioral autonomy code,
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100.000 linija programskog koda za samostalno ponašanje,
08:12
packs more than 10 kilos of TNT in electrical onboard equivalent.
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nosi više od 10 kilograma čipova u ugrađenoj elektroničkoj opremi.
08:17
This is the target site,
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Ovo je ciljna lokacija,
08:19
the world's deepest hydrothermal spring at Cenote Zacaton in northern Mexico.
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najdublji hidrotermalni izvor na svijetu: Cenote Zacatón u Sj. Meksiku.
08:24
It's been explored to a depth of 292 meters
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Istražen je do dubine od 292 metra,
08:27
and beyond that nobody knows anything.
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dublje od toga nitko ništa ne zna.
08:30
This is part of DEPTHX's mission.
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Ovo je dio misije DEPTHX-a.
08:32
There are two primary targets we're doing here.
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Ovdje imamo dva primarna cilja.
08:34
One is, how do you do science autonomy underground?
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Prvi, kako vršiti autonomna znanstvena istraživanja u podzemlju?
08:36
How do you take a robot and turn it into a field microbiologist?
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Kako robota pretvoriti u terenskog mikrobiologa?
08:40
There are more stages involved here
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Ima ovdje više faza nego
08:42
than I've got time to tell you about, but basically we drive
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što imam vremena govoriti ali u osnovi se krećemo
08:44
through the space, we populate it with environmental variables --
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kroz prostor, punimo ga varijablama okoline -
08:48
sulphide, halide, things like that.
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sulfid, halid, takve stvari.
08:50
We calculate gradient surfaces, and drive the bot over to a wall
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Izračunavamo nagibe površina i vozimo robota do zida
08:53
where there's a high probability of life.
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s velikom vjerojatnošću za postojanje života.
08:55
We move along the wall, in what's called proximity operations,
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Krećemo se uza zid, u onome što zovemo blizinski način rada,
08:57
looking for changes in color.
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tražeći promjene u boji.
08:59
If we see something that looks interesting, we pull it into a microscope.
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Ako vidimo nešto što izgleda zanimljivo, to uvučemo u mikroskop.
09:02
If it passes the microscopic test, we go for a collection.
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Ako prođe test mikroskopom, idemo po uzorak.
09:06
We either draw in a liquid sample,
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Ili uzmemo tekući uzorak
09:08
or we can actually take a solid core from the wall.
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ili možemo odlomiti komad zida.
09:11
No hands at the wheel.
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Bez ruku na volanu.
09:12
This is all behavioral autonomy here
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Ovo je sve samostalno ponašanje
09:14
that's being conducted by the robot on its own.
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kojeg robot sam odrađuje.
09:17
The real hat trick for this vehicle, though,
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Pravi zec iz šešira za ovo vozilo jest
09:19
is a disruptive new navigation system we've developed,
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novi navigacijski sustav kojeg smo razvili,
09:22
known as 3D SLAM, for simultaneous localization and mapping.
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poznat kao 3D SLAM, skraćeno za "simultano lociranje i mapiranje".
09:26
DEPTHX is an all-seeing eyeball.
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DEPTHX je oko koje vidi u svim smjerovima.
09:28
Its sensor beams look both forward and backward at the same time,
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Senzori gledaju i naprijed i nazad istovremeno,
09:32
allowing it to do new exploration
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omogućavajući mu nova istraživanja
09:35
while it's still achieving geometric sensor-lock
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dok radi geometrijsko pozicioniranje
09:37
on what it's gone through already.
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u prostoru koji je već prošao.
09:38
What I'm going to show you next
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Slijedeće što ću vam pokazati
09:41
is the first fully autonomous robotic exploration underground
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jest prvo podzemno potpuno autonomno robotsko istraživanje
09:45
that's ever been done.
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koje je ikada napravljeno.
10:36
This May, we're going to go from minus 1,000 meters in Zacaton,
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Ovog svibnja, krenuti ćemo od minus 1.000 metara u Zacatónu,
10:39
and if we're very lucky, DEPTHX will bring back the first
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i ako budemo imali sreće, DEPTHX će donijeti prve
10:42
robotically-discovered division of bacteria.
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robotski otkrivene uzorke bakterija.
10:45
The next step after that is to test it in Antartica and then,
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Korak nakon toga je testirati ga na Antarktici, a zatim
10:48
if the funding continues and NASA has the resolution to go,
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ako se financiranje nastavi i ako NASA bude odlučna,
10:51
we could potentially launch by 2016, and by 2019
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mogli bismo ga lansirati do 2016. - a do 2019.
10:55
we may have the first evidence of life off this planet.
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mogli bismo imati prve dokaze o životu izvan ovog planeta.
10:59
What then of manned space exploration?
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A što je s istraživanjem svemira s ljudskim posadama?
11:04
The government recently announced plans to return to the moon by 2024.
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Vlada je nedavno najavila planove za povratak na Mjesec do 2024.
11:08
The successful conclusion of that mission will result
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Uspješan završetak te misije dovest će do
11:11
in infrequent visitation of the moon by a small number
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ne baš čestih posjeta Mjesecu malog broja
11:15
of government scientists and pilots.
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vladinih znanstvenika i pilota.
11:17
It will leave us no further along in the general expansion
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Nećemo ostvariti ništa veći napredak u općem širenju
11:21
of humanity into space than we were 50 years ago.
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čovječanstva u svemir u usporedbi s onim od prije 50 godina.
11:24
Something fundamental has to change
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Nešto se iz temelja mora promijeniti
11:26
if we are to see common access to space in our lifetime.
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ukoliko želimo doživjeti opći pristup svemiru tijekom našeg životnog vijeka.
11:29
What I'm going to show you next are a couple of controversial ideas.
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Sada ću vam pokazati par kontroverznih ideja.
11:33
And I hope you'll bear with me and have some faith
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I nadam se da ćete me saslušati i povjerovati
11:35
that there's credibility behind what we're going to say here.
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da postoje znanstveni temelji za ovo što ću izreći.
11:39
There are three underpinnings of working in space privately.
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Postoje tri poteškoće za privatno poduzetništvo u svemiru.
11:46
One of them is the requirement
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Jedna od njih je potreba
11:48
for economical earth-to-space transport.
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za ekonomičnim prijevozom sa Zemlje u svemir.
11:51
The Bert Rutans and Richard Bransons of this world
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Bert Rutani i Richardi Bransoni ovog svijeta
11:54
have got this in their sights and I salute them.
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uzeli su si to u zadatak i ovom prilikom ih pozdravljam.
11:56
Go, go, go.
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Idemo, idemo, idemo!
11:58
The next thing we need are places to stay on orbit.
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Druga stvar koju trebamo su naselja u orbiti.
12:01
Orbital hotels to start with, but workshops for the rest of us later on.
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Orbitalni hoteli za početak, a kasnije i radionice za nas ostale.
12:04
The final missing piece, the real paradigm-buster, is this:
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Posljednja karika koja nedostaje, razbijač paradigme, je ovo:
12:10
a gas station on orbit.
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benzinska crpka u orbiti.
12:13
It's not going to look like that.
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Neće baš ovako izgledati.
12:15
If it existed, it would change all future spacecraft design and space mission planning.
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To bi promijenilo sve buduće dizajne svemirskih letjelica i planiranje misija.
12:21
Now, to give you a chance to understand
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Kako biste shvatili
12:24
why there is power in that statement,
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zašto je ovo moćna izjava,
12:27
I've got to give you the basics of Space 101.
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trebam vam objasniti osnove svemirskog leta.
12:29
And the first thing is everything you do in space you pay by the kilogram.
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Prva stvar je da sve što radite u svemiru plaćate po kilogramu.
12:37
Anybody drink one of these here this week?
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Je li netko popio jednu od ovih ovaj tjedan?
12:40
You'd pay 10,000 dollars for that in orbit.
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Za to biste platili 10.000 dolara u orbiti.
12:44
That's more than you pay for TED,
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To je više nego što biste platili za TED,
12:46
if Google dropped their sponsorship.
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kada bi Google ukinuo sponzorstvo.
12:48
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
12:51
The second is more than 90 percent of the weight of a vehicle is in propellant.
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Druga stvar je da više od 90% mase vozila čini gorivo.
12:56
Thus, every time you'd want to do anything in space,
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Stoga, svaki puta kada želite nešto napraviti u svemiru,
13:00
you are literally blowing away enormous sums of money
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doslovno izgarate ogromne količine novca,
13:04
every time you hit the accelerator.
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svaki put kada pritisnete na gas.
13:06
Not even the guys at Tesla can fight that physics.
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Čak ni momci iz Tesle ne mogu protiv te fizike.
13:09
So, what if you could get your gas at a 10th the price?
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A što ako biste mogli dobiti gorivo za desetinu cijene?
13:15
There is a place where you can.
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Postoji mjesto gdje to možete.
13:18
In fact, you can get it better -- you can get it at 14 times lower
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Zapravo, bilo bi i bolje - dobili biste ga za 14 puta nižu cijenu
13:21
if you can find propellant on the moon.
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ukoliko biste pronašli gorivo na Mjesecu.
13:24
There is a little-known mission that was launched
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Prije 13 godina Pentagon je lansirao
13:26
by the Pentagon, 13 years ago now, called Clementine.
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malo poznatu misiju naziva "Clementine".
13:30
And the most amazing thing that came out of that mission
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I najnevjerojatniji ishod te misije bila je
13:33
was a strong hydrogen signature at Shackleton crater
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izrazita detekcija vodika u krateru Shackleton
13:36
on the south pole of the moon.
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na južnom polu Mjeseca.
13:38
That signal was so strong,
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Signal je bio toliko jak,
13:40
it could only have been produced by 10 trillion tons of water
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da ga je moglo proizvesti samo 10 trilijuna tona vode
13:44
buried in the sediment, collected over millions and billions of years
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zakopane u sediment, nakupljane milijunima i milijardama godina
13:48
by the impact of asteroids and comet material.
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udarima asteroida i kometa.
13:55
If we're going to get that, and make that gas station possible,
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Ako se želimo poslužiti time i tu benzinsku crpku učiniti mogućom,
13:59
we have to figure out ways to move large volumes of payload through space.
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moramo smisliti način za prijevoz velikih količina tereta kroz svemir.
14:02
We can't do that right now.
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Trenutno to ne možemo.
14:04
The way you normally build a system right now is you have a tube stack
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Danas, normalan način izgradnje sustava za svemirski let je cilindar
14:07
that has to be launched from the ground,
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koji se mora lansirati s tla
14:09
and resist all kinds of aerodynamic forces.
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i mora se oduprijeti svakakvim aerodinamičkim silama.
14:11
We have to beat that.
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Mi moramo bolje.
14:13
We can do it because in space there are no aerodynamics.
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To možemo zato što u svemiru nema aerodinamike.
14:16
We can go and use inflatable systems for almost everything.
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Možemo koristiti sustave na napuhavanje za gotovo sve.
14:20
This is an idea that, again, came out of Livermore back in 1989,
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Ovo je ideja, koja je, opet, izašla iz Livermora još 1989.
14:24
with Dr. Lowell Wood's group.
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od grupe dr. Lowella Wooda.
14:26
And we can extend that now to just about everything.
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Danas to možemo proširiti na gotovo sve.
14:30
Bob Bigelow currently has a test article in the orbit.
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Bob Bigelow trenutno ima testni uzorak u orbiti.
14:32
We can go much further.
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Mi možemo dalje.
14:33
We can build space tugs, orbiting platforms for holding cryogens and water.
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Možemo graditi svemirske tegljače, orbitirajuće platforme za kriogene i vodu.
14:38
There's another thing.
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Ima još jedna stvar.
14:40
When you're coming back from the moon,
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Kad se vraćate s Mjeseca,
14:42
you have to deal with orbital mechanics.
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morate riješiti orbitalnu mehaniku.
14:44
It says you're moving 10,000 feet per second faster
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Ona kaže da se krećete 3.000 metara u sekundi brže
14:46
than you really want to be to get back to your gas station.
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nego što stvarno želite za vraćanje na svoju svemirsku benzinsku crpku.
14:49
You got two choices.
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Imate dva izbora.
14:51
You can burn rocket fuel to get there, or you can do something really incredible.
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Možete trošiti gorivo za kočenje ili možete učiniti nešto stvarno nevjerovatno.
14:55
You can dive into the stratosphere,
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Možete zaroniti u stratosferu
14:57
and precisely dissipate that velocity, and come back out to the space station.
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i precizno smanjiti tu brzinu te izaći s druge strane na crpku.
15:01
It has never been done.
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To nikad nije učinjeno.
15:02
It's risky and it's going to be one hell of a ride --
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Riskantno je i bit će to stvarno luda vožnja -
15:06
better than Disney.
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bolja nego u Disneyu.
15:08
The traditional approach to space exploration
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Tradicionalni pristup svemirskom istraživanju
15:10
has been that you carry all the fuel you need
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bio je da sa sobom nosite sve gorivo
15:12
to get everybody back in case of an emergency.
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potrebno da se svi vratite u slučaju nužde.
15:14
If you try to do that for the moon,
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Ako to pokušate za Mjesec,
15:16
you're going to burn a billion dollars in fuel alone sending a crew out there.
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spalit ćete milijardu dolara u gorivu samo za slanje posade.
15:20
But if you send a mining team there,
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Ali ako prvo pošaljete rudarski tim,
15:22
without the return propellant, first --
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bez goriva za povratak...
15:24
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
15:29
Did any of you guys hear the story of Cortez?
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Jel netko od vas čuo priču o Cortezu?
15:33
This is not like that. I'm much more like Scotty.
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Ovo nije poput toga. Ja sam više kao Scotty.
15:35
I like this equipment, you know, and I really value it
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Znate, stvarno volim ovu opremu i zaista ju cijenim
15:38
so we're not going to burn the gear.
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zato je nećemo spaliti.
15:40
But, if you were truly bold you could get it there, manufacture it,
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Ali ako biste bili stvarno hrabri mogli bi je dostaviti tamo, pokrenuti proizvodnju,
15:44
and it would be the most dramatic demonstration
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i to bi bila najdramatičnija demonstracija
15:46
that you could do something worthwhile off this planet
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da stvarno možete napraviti nešto korisno izvan ovog planeta,
15:48
that has ever been done.
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što nitko nije učinio prije vas.
15:50
There's a myth that you can't do anything in space
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Postoji mit da se u svemiru ne može ništa napraviti
15:53
for less than a trillion dollars and 20 years.
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za manje od trilijun dolara i 20 godina.
15:57
That's not true.
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To nije istina.
15:58
In seven years, we could pull off
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Za sedam godina, mogli bi ostvariti
16:00
an industrial mission to Shackleton and demonstrate
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industrijsku misiju na Shackletonu i pokazati
16:02
that you could provide commercial reality out of this in low-earth orbit.
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da se od ovoga može stvoriti komercijalna stvarnost u niskoj orbiti oko Zemlje.
16:07
We're living in one of the most exciting times in history.
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Živimo u najuzbudljivijim vremenima u povijesti.
16:10
We're at a magical confluence where private wealth
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Nalazimo se na čarobnom ušću privatnog bogatstva
16:12
and imagination are driving the demand for access to space.
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u maštu, što dovodi do potražnje za pristupom svemiru.
16:16
The orbital refueling stations I've just described
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Orbitalna crpka koju sam opisao
16:19
could create an entirely new industry and provide the final key
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mogla bi stvoriti potpuno novu industriju i pružiti zadnju
16:22
for opening space to the general exploration.
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kariku za otvaranje svemira za opće istraživanje.
16:26
To bust the paradigm a radically different approach is needed.
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Kako bismo razbili paradigmu potreban je radikalno drugačiji pristup.
16:30
We can do it by jump-starting with an industrial
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To možemo učiniti pomoću skoka naprijed sa
16:32
Lewis and Clark expedition to Shackleton crater,
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industrijskom Lewis i Clark ekspedicijom u krater Shackleton,
16:35
to mine the moon for resources, and demonstrate
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radi eksploatacije resursa na Mjesecu za resurse i pokazali
16:37
they can form the basis for a profitable business on orbit.
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da to može biti osnova za profitabilne poslove u orbiti.
16:41
Talk about space always seems to be hung on ambiguities
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Govor o svemiru se uvijek vrti oko nejasnoća
16:44
of purpose and timing.
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svrhe i pravog trenutka.
16:46
I would like to close here by putting a stake in the sand at TED.
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Završio bi zabijanjem kolca u pijesak ovdje na TED-u.
16:51
I intend to lead that expedition.
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Ja namjeravam voditi tu ekspediciju.
16:53
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
17:01
It can be done in seven years with the right backing.
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Sa odgovarajućom podrškom to se može učiniti za sedam godina.
17:04
Those who join me in making it happen will become a part of history
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Oni koji mi se pridruže u ovom pothvatu postat će dio povijesti
17:08
and join other bold individuals from time past
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i tako se pridružiti drugim smjelim pojedincima iz prošlosti
17:10
who, had they been here today, would have heartily approved.
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koji bi, da su ovdje danas, hrabro odobravali.
17:15
There was once a time when people did bold things to open the frontier.
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Nekada su ljudi činili odvažne stvari kako bi pomakli granice.
17:20
We have collectively forgotten that lesson.
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Mi smo kolektivno zaboravili tu lekciju.
17:25
Now we're at a time when boldness is required to move forward.
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Nalazimo se u trenutku kada je potrebna odvažnost kako bi se pomakli naprijed.
17:31
100 years after Sir Ernest Shackleton wrote these words,
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100 godina nakon što je Sir Ernest Shackleton napisao ove riječi,
17:35
I intend to plant an industrial flag on the moon
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ja namjeravam zabiti industrijsku zastavu na Mjesec
17:37
and complete the final piece
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i stvoriti posljednju kariku u lancu
17:40
that will open the space frontier, in our time, for all of us.
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koja bi otvorila svemirska prostranstva, u našem vremenu, za sve nas.
17:44
Thank you.
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Hvala.
17:45
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
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