Inside the world's deepest caves | Bill Stone

82,645 views ・ 2007-06-28

TED


Dvaput kliknite na engleske titlove ispod za reprodukciju videozapisa.

Prevoditelj: Ivan Majstorovic Recezent: Nenad Maljković
00:26
First place I'd like to take you
0
26000
1000
Prvo vas želim odvesti do,
00:27
is what many believe will be the world's deepest natural abyss.
1
27000
4000
što mnogi vjeruju, najdubljeg svjetskog ponora.
00:31
And I say believe because this process is still ongoing.
2
31000
3000
I kažem vjeruju zato što ovaj proces još traje.
00:34
Right now there are major expeditions being planned for next year
3
34000
4000
Trenutno se planiraju velike ekspedicije za iduću godinu,
00:38
that I'll talk a little bit about.
4
38000
2000
o čemu ću nešto reći.
00:40
One of the things that's changed here,
5
40000
2000
Jedna od stvari koje su se promijenile,
00:42
in the last 150 years since Jules Verne
6
42000
3000
u posljednjih 150 godina otkako je Jules Verne
00:45
had great science-fiction concepts of what the underworld was like,
7
45000
3000
zamislio kako izgleda podzemni svijet,
00:48
is that technology has enabled us to go to these places
8
48000
4000
je i to da nam je danas tehnologija omogućila da odemo na mjesta
00:52
that were previously completely unknown and speculated about.
9
52000
4000
koja su do nedavno bila potpuno nepoznata i o kojima se nagađalo.
00:56
We can now descend thousands of meters into the Earth with relative impunity.
10
56000
5000
Sada se možemo spustiti na tisuće metara u Zemlju s relativno malo truda.
01:01
Along the way we've discovered fantastic abysses and chambers so large
11
61000
6000
Usput smo otkrili fantastične ponore i komore tako velike
01:07
that you can see for hundreds of meters
12
67000
2000
da u njima pogled seže na stotine metara
01:09
without a break in the line of sight.
13
69000
2000
bez ikakvih prepreka.
01:12
When you go on a thing like this, we can usually be in the field
14
72000
2000
Kada odemo na ovakvu ekspediciju, na terenu znamo biti
01:14
for anywhere from two to four months,
15
74000
2000
od dva do četiri mjeseca,
01:16
with a team as small as 20 or 30, to as big as 150.
16
76000
4000
u maloj grupi od 20-ak ili 30-ak osoba, pa do velikih grupa od 150.
01:21
And a lot of people ask me, you know,
17
81000
4000
Znate, mnogi me pitaju,
01:25
what kind of people do you get for a project like this?
18
85000
2000
kakvi se osobe javljaju za ovakve projekte?
01:27
While our selection process
19
87000
3000
Iako naš proces selekcije
01:30
is not as rigorous as NASA, it's nonetheless thorough.
20
90000
3000
nije rigorozan kao u NASA-i, nije ništa manje temeljit.
01:33
We're looking for competence, discipline, endurance, and strength.
21
93000
5000
Tražimo sposobnost, disciplinu, izdržljivost i snagu.
01:38
In case you're wondering, this is our strength test.
22
98000
2000
Ako se pitate, ovo je naš test snage.
01:40
(Laughter)
23
100000
2000
(smijeh)
01:42
But we also value esprit de corps
24
102000
3000
Ali također cijenimo duh zajedništva
01:46
and the ability to diplomatically resolve inter-personal conflict
25
106000
4000
i sposobnost diplomatskog rješavanja osobnih sukoba
01:50
while under great stress in remote locations.
26
110000
2000
pod velikim stresom u udaljenim lokacijama.
01:54
We have already gone far beyond the limits of human endurance.
27
114000
4000
Već smo daleko nadišli granice ljudske izdržljivosti.
01:58
From the entrance, this is nothing like a commercial cave.
28
118000
3000
Već od samog ulaza, ovo nimalo ne nalikuje na turističku spilju.
02:02
You're looking at Camp Two in a place called J2, not K2, but J2.
29
122000
4000
Gledate u Logor 2 u mjestu koje se zove J2; ne K2, već J2.
02:06
We're roughly two days from the entrance at that point.
30
126000
4000
Tu smo na nekih dva dana od ulaza.
02:10
And it's kind of like a high altitude mountaineering trip in reverse,
31
130000
4000
To je poput obrnutog uspona na visoku planinu,
02:14
except that you're now running a string of these things down.
32
134000
2000
osim što spuštate niz ovih stvari dolje.
02:16
The idea is to try to provide some measure of physical comfort
33
136000
4000
Ideja je donekle osigurati fizičku udobnost
02:20
while you're down there, otherwise in damp, moist, cold conditions in utterly dark places.
34
140000
6000
dok si tamo dolje, u inače vlažnim i hladnim uvjetima potpuno mračnih mjesta.
02:26
I should mention that everything you're seeing here, by the way,
35
146000
3000
Usput, moram napomenuti, da je sve što gledate
02:29
is artificially illuminated at great effort.
36
149000
3000
umjetno osvjetljeno uz veliki trud i napor.
02:32
Otherwise it is completely dark in these places.
37
152000
2000
Tu je inače potpuni mrak.
02:34
The deeper you go, the more you run into a conflict with water.
38
154000
5000
Što se dublje spuštate to vam voda više smeta.
02:39
It's basically like a tree collecting water coming down.
39
159000
3000
To je poput grana koje skupljaju vodu koja curi dolje.
02:43
And eventually you get to places where it is formidable and dangerous
40
163000
3000
I naposljetku dođete do mjesta koja su iznimno zahtjevna i opasna,
02:47
and unfortunately slides just don't do justice.
41
167000
3000
nažalost, tu fotografije ne mogu dočarati stvarno stanje.
02:50
So I've got a very brief clip here that was taken in the late 1980s.
42
170000
5000
Zato sam pripremio kratki video koji je snimljen kasnih 80-ih.
02:55
So descend into Huautla Plateau in Mexico.
43
175000
3000
Spust na visoravani Huautla u Meksiku.
02:58
(Video)
44
178000
4000
(video)
03:02
Now I have to tell you that the techniques being shown here
45
182000
3000
Moram vam napomenuti da su tehnike koje ovdje vidite
03:05
are obsolete and dangerous.
46
185000
2000
zastarjele i opasne.
03:07
We would not do this today unless we were doing it for film.
47
187000
3000
Danas ovo ne bi radili osim ako to ne bi bilo za potrebe filma.
03:11
(Laughter)
48
191000
4000
(smijeh)
03:15
Along that same line, I have to tell you
49
195000
2000
Da nastavim misao, moram vam reći
03:17
that with the spate of Hollywood movies that came out last year,
50
197000
3000
da s obzirom na holivudske filmove koji su izašli prošle godine,
03:20
we have never seen monsters underground --
51
200000
4000
nikada nismo vidjeli čudovišta u podzemlju,
03:24
at least the kind that eat you.
52
204000
2000
barem ne ona koja bi vas pojela.
03:26
If there is a monster underground,
53
206000
4000
Ako ispod postoji čudovište,
03:30
it is the crushing psychological remoteness
54
210000
3000
onda je to ogroman psihološki pritisak zbog udaljenosti i izolacije
03:33
that begins to hit every member of the team
55
213000
2000
koji spopadne svakog člana tima
03:35
once you cross about three days inbound from the nearest entrance.
56
215000
4000
nakon nekih tri dana od najbližeg ulaza.
03:40
Next year I'll be leading an international team to J2.
57
220000
4000
Sljedeće godine vodit ću međunarodni tim u J2.
03:44
We're going to be shooting from minus 2,600 meters --
58
224000
2000
Snimat ćemo na dubiti od 2.600 metara -
03:46
that's a little over 8,600 feet down --
59
226000
3000
što je nešto više od 8.600 stopa pod zemljom -
03:49
at 30 kilometers from the entrance.
60
229000
2000
na oko 30 kilometara od ulaza.
03:51
The lead crews will be underground for pushing 30 days straight.
61
231000
4000
Vodeće skupine će u podzemlju provesti 30 dana u komadu.
03:55
I don't think there's been a mission like that in a long time.
62
235000
2000
Mislim da takve misije nije bilo već jako dugo.
03:58
Eventually, if you keep going down in these things,
63
238000
2000
S vremenom, ako se nastavite spuštati u ovome,
04:00
probability says that you're going to run into a place like this.
64
240000
3000
vjerojatno je da ćete naletiti na ovakvo mjesto.
04:03
It's a place where there's a fold in the geologic stratum
65
243000
4000
To je mjesto gdje je postoji nabor u geološkom stratumu
04:07
that collects water and fills to the roof.
66
247000
2000
u kojem se nakuplja voda i potpuno ispuni prostoriju.
04:09
And when you used to find these things,
67
249000
3000
Nekada, kada bi naišli na ovakvo nešto,
04:12
they would put a label on a map that said terminal siphon.
68
252000
3000
na kartu bi stavili oznaku na kojoj bi pisalo - krajnji sifon.
04:15
Now I remember that term really well for two reasons.
69
255000
2000
Ja sam dobro zapamtio taj pojam iz dva razloga.
04:17
Number one, it's the name of my rock band, and second,
70
257000
3000
Kao prvo, to je naziv mog rock benda (Terminal Siphon), a kao drugo,
04:20
is because the confrontation of these things
71
260000
3000
zato što me je susretanje s takvim pojavama
04:23
forced me to become an inventor.
72
263000
2000
prisililo da postanem izumitelj.
04:25
And we've since gone on to develop
73
265000
3000
Tako da smo u međuvremenu razvili
04:28
many generations of gadgets for exploring places like this.
74
268000
3000
nekoliko generacija naprava za istraživanje takvih mjesta.
04:31
This is some life-support equipment closed-cycle.
75
271000
2000
Ovo je oprema zatvorenog ciklusa za održavanje života -
04:34
And you can use that now to go for many kilometers horizontally
76
274000
3000
pomoću nje možete preći nekoliko kilometara vodoravno
04:37
underwater and to depths of 200 meters straight down underwater.
77
277000
3000
ispod vode i ići do 200 metara duboko.
04:41
When you do this kind of stuff it's like doing EVA.
78
281000
3000
Kada radite ovakvo nešto, to je poput
04:44
It's like doing extra-vehicular activity in space,
79
284000
3000
šetnje izvan letjelice u svemiru,
04:47
but at much greater distances, and at much greater physical peril.
80
287000
4000
samo na daleko većim udaljenostima i uz puno veću opasnost.
04:51
So it makes you think about how to design your equipment
81
291000
2000
Zato trebate dobro razmislite o konstrukciji svoje opreme
04:53
for long range, away from a safe haven.
82
293000
2000
koja vam treba služiti na velikim udaljenostima od sigurnog utočišta.
04:56
Here's a clip from a National Geographic movie
83
296000
2000
Ovo je isječak iz filma National Geographic-a
04:58
that came out in 1999.
84
298000
2000
objavljenog 1999.
05:00
(Video) Narrator: Exploration is a physical process
85
300000
2000
- "Istraživanje je fizički proces
05:02
of putting your foot in places where humans have never stepped before.
86
302000
4000
u kojem kročite na mjesta kojima čovjek nikada prije nije kročio.
05:06
This is where the last little nugget of totally unknown territory remains on this planet.
87
306000
5000
Ovdje su posljednji djelići potpuno nepoznatog teritorija na ovom planetu.
05:11
To experience it is a privilege.
88
311000
2000
Iskusiti takvo što je povlastica."
05:18
Bill Stone: That was taken in Wakulla Springs, Florida.
89
318000
3000
To je snimljeno u izvorištu rijeke Wakula na Floridi.
05:22
Couple of things to note about that movie. Every piece of equipment
90
322000
4000
Bitno je nešto napomenuti vezano za ovaj film: niti jedan komad opreme
05:26
that you saw in there did not exist before 1999.
91
326000
2000
koji ste vidjeli na filmu nije postojao prije 1999.
05:28
It was developed within a two-year period and used on actual exploratory projects.
92
328000
5000
Razvijen je za dvije godine i korišten na stvarnim istraživačkim projektima.
05:33
This gadget you see right here was called the digital wall mapper,
93
333000
3000
Naprava koju ovdje vidite zove se digitalni maper zidova -
05:36
and it produced the first three-dimensional map anybody has ever done
94
336000
4000
i stvorila je prvu, ikad napravljenu, trodimenzionalnu mapu spilje,
05:40
of a cave, and it happened to be underwater in Wakulla Springs.
95
340000
3000
a to je bilo ispod površine vode u izvorištu Wakule.
05:43
It was that gadget that serendipitously opened a door
96
343000
4000
Ta je naprava sretnom slučajnošću otvorila vrata
05:47
to another unexplored world.
97
347000
1000
u jedan drugi neistraženi svijet.
05:48
This is Europa.
98
348000
4000
Ovo je Europa.
05:52
Carolyn Porco mentioned another one called Enceladus the other day.
99
352000
4000
Carolyn Porco je neki dan spomenula drugi satelit imena Enceladus.
05:56
This is one of the places where planetary scientists
100
356000
3000
Ovo je jedno od mjesta za koje planetarni znanstvenici
05:59
believe there is a highest probability of the detection
101
359000
2000
vjeruju da tu postoji najveća vjerojatnost za otkrivanje
06:01
of the first life off earth in the ocean that exists below there.
102
361000
4000
izvanzemaljskog života - u oceanu koji se tamo nalazi ispod površine.
06:05
For those who have never seen this story,
103
365000
2000
Za one koji nisu nikad vidjeli ovu priču,
06:07
Jim Cameron produced a really wonderful IMAX movie
104
367000
3000
Jim Cameron je napravio stvarno predivan IMAX film
06:10
couple of years ago, called "Aliens of the Deep."
105
370000
2000
prije nekoliko godina, nazvao ga je "Tuđinci dubina".
06:12
There was a brief clip --
106
372000
2000
Evo kratkog isječka...
06:16
(Video) Narrator: A mission to explore under the ice of Europa
107
376000
2000
- "Istraživačka misija ispod ledenog pokrivača Europe
06:18
would be the ultimate robotic challenge.
108
378000
3000
bila bi ultimativni izazov za robotiku.
06:24
Europa is so far away that even at the speed of light,
109
384000
6000
Europa je toliko daleko da bi čak i pri brzini svjetlosti,
06:30
it would take more than an hour for the command just to reach the vehicle.
110
390000
3000
poslanoj naredbi bilo potrebno više od jednog sata samo da dođe do vozila.
06:34
It has to be smart enough to avoid terrain hazards
111
394000
3000
Ono mora biti dovoljno pametno da izbjegne opasnosti terena
06:37
and to find a good landing site on the ice.
112
397000
2000
i da pronađe odgovarajuće mjesto za slijetanje na ledu.
06:49
Now we have to get through the ice.
113
409000
2000
Zatim moramo nekako proći kroz led.
06:52
You need a melt probe.
114
412000
2000
Za to nam treba sonda za taljenje.
06:54
It's basically a nuclear-heated torpedo.
115
414000
3000
U osnovi je to nuklearno grijani torpedo.
07:07
The ice could be anywhere from three to 16 miles deep.
116
427000
3000
Led bi mogao biti debljine između pet i 25 kilometara.
07:11
Week after week, the melt probe will sink of its own weight
117
431000
3000
Tjedan za tjednom, sonda bi tonula plod vlastitom težinom
07:14
through the ancient ice, until finally --
118
434000
3000
kroz drevni led, dok konačno...
07:23
Now, what are you going to do when you reach the surface of that ocean?
119
443000
3000
A što napraviti kada dođete do površine tog oceana?
07:29
You need an AUV, an autonomous underwater vehicle.
120
449000
4000
Treba vam APV, autonomno podvodno vozilo.
07:34
It needs to be one smart puppy, able to navigate
121
454000
2000
Ono treba biti pravi Baltazar, mora biti u stanju navigirati
07:36
and make decisions on its own in an alien ocean.
122
456000
3000
i samostalno donositi odluke u stranom oceanu."
07:41
BS: What Jim didn't know when he released that movie
123
461000
2000
Ono što Jim nije znao kad je objavio taj film
07:43
was that six months earlier NASA had funded a team I assembled
124
463000
5000
bilo je da je šest mjeseci ranije NASA financirala moj tim
07:48
to develop a prototype for the Europa AUV.
125
468000
3000
za razvoj prototipa za Europin APV.
07:51
I mean, I cut through three years of engineering meetings, design
126
471000
5000
Mislim, preskočio sam 3 godine inženjerskih sastanaka, dizajna
07:56
and system integration, and introduced DEPTHX --
127
476000
2000
i sistemske integracije i predstavljam DEPTHX -
07:59
Deep Phreatic Thermal Explorer.
128
479000
2000
Dubinski termički istraživač podzemnih voda.
08:01
And as the movie says, this is one smart puppy.
129
481000
3000
I kako kaže film, ovo je pravi mali Baltazar.
08:04
It's got 96 sensors, 36 onboard computers,
130
484000
5000
Ima 96 senzora, 36 računala,
08:09
100,000 lines of behavioral autonomy code,
131
489000
3000
100.000 linija programskog koda za samostalno ponašanje,
08:12
packs more than 10 kilos of TNT in electrical onboard equivalent.
132
492000
5000
nosi više od 10 kilograma čipova u ugrađenoj elektroničkoj opremi.
08:17
This is the target site,
133
497000
2000
Ovo je ciljna lokacija,
08:19
the world's deepest hydrothermal spring at Cenote Zacaton in northern Mexico.
134
499000
5000
najdublji hidrotermalni izvor na svijetu: Cenote Zacatón u Sj. Meksiku.
08:24
It's been explored to a depth of 292 meters
135
504000
3000
Istražen je do dubine od 292 metra,
08:27
and beyond that nobody knows anything.
136
507000
2000
dublje od toga nitko ništa ne zna.
08:30
This is part of DEPTHX's mission.
137
510000
2000
Ovo je dio misije DEPTHX-a.
08:32
There are two primary targets we're doing here.
138
512000
2000
Ovdje imamo dva primarna cilja.
08:34
One is, how do you do science autonomy underground?
139
514000
2000
Prvi, kako vršiti autonomna znanstvena istraživanja u podzemlju?
08:36
How do you take a robot and turn it into a field microbiologist?
140
516000
4000
Kako robota pretvoriti u terenskog mikrobiologa?
08:40
There are more stages involved here
141
520000
2000
Ima ovdje više faza nego
08:42
than I've got time to tell you about, but basically we drive
142
522000
2000
što imam vremena govoriti ali u osnovi se krećemo
08:44
through the space, we populate it with environmental variables --
143
524000
4000
kroz prostor, punimo ga varijablama okoline -
08:48
sulphide, halide, things like that.
144
528000
2000
sulfid, halid, takve stvari.
08:50
We calculate gradient surfaces, and drive the bot over to a wall
145
530000
3000
Izračunavamo nagibe površina i vozimo robota do zida
08:53
where there's a high probability of life.
146
533000
2000
s velikom vjerojatnošću za postojanje života.
08:55
We move along the wall, in what's called proximity operations,
147
535000
2000
Krećemo se uza zid, u onome što zovemo blizinski način rada,
08:57
looking for changes in color.
148
537000
2000
tražeći promjene u boji.
08:59
If we see something that looks interesting, we pull it into a microscope.
149
539000
3000
Ako vidimo nešto što izgleda zanimljivo, to uvučemo u mikroskop.
09:02
If it passes the microscopic test, we go for a collection.
150
542000
4000
Ako prođe test mikroskopom, idemo po uzorak.
09:06
We either draw in a liquid sample,
151
546000
2000
Ili uzmemo tekući uzorak
09:08
or we can actually take a solid core from the wall.
152
548000
3000
ili možemo odlomiti komad zida.
09:11
No hands at the wheel.
153
551000
1000
Bez ruku na volanu.
09:12
This is all behavioral autonomy here
154
552000
2000
Ovo je sve samostalno ponašanje
09:14
that's being conducted by the robot on its own.
155
554000
2000
kojeg robot sam odrađuje.
09:17
The real hat trick for this vehicle, though,
156
557000
2000
Pravi zec iz šešira za ovo vozilo jest
09:19
is a disruptive new navigation system we've developed,
157
559000
3000
novi navigacijski sustav kojeg smo razvili,
09:22
known as 3D SLAM, for simultaneous localization and mapping.
158
562000
4000
poznat kao 3D SLAM, skraćeno za "simultano lociranje i mapiranje".
09:26
DEPTHX is an all-seeing eyeball.
159
566000
2000
DEPTHX je oko koje vidi u svim smjerovima.
09:28
Its sensor beams look both forward and backward at the same time,
160
568000
4000
Senzori gledaju i naprijed i nazad istovremeno,
09:32
allowing it to do new exploration
161
572000
3000
omogućavajući mu nova istraživanja
09:35
while it's still achieving geometric sensor-lock
162
575000
2000
dok radi geometrijsko pozicioniranje
09:37
on what it's gone through already.
163
577000
1000
u prostoru koji je već prošao.
09:38
What I'm going to show you next
164
578000
3000
Slijedeće što ću vam pokazati
09:41
is the first fully autonomous robotic exploration underground
165
581000
4000
jest prvo podzemno potpuno autonomno robotsko istraživanje
09:45
that's ever been done.
166
585000
3000
koje je ikada napravljeno.
10:36
This May, we're going to go from minus 1,000 meters in Zacaton,
167
636000
3000
Ovog svibnja, krenuti ćemo od minus 1.000 metara u Zacatónu,
10:39
and if we're very lucky, DEPTHX will bring back the first
168
639000
3000
i ako budemo imali sreće, DEPTHX će donijeti prve
10:42
robotically-discovered division of bacteria.
169
642000
2000
robotski otkrivene uzorke bakterija.
10:45
The next step after that is to test it in Antartica and then,
170
645000
3000
Korak nakon toga je testirati ga na Antarktici, a zatim
10:48
if the funding continues and NASA has the resolution to go,
171
648000
3000
ako se financiranje nastavi i ako NASA bude odlučna,
10:51
we could potentially launch by 2016, and by 2019
172
651000
4000
mogli bismo ga lansirati do 2016. - a do 2019.
10:55
we may have the first evidence of life off this planet.
173
655000
3000
mogli bismo imati prve dokaze o životu izvan ovog planeta.
10:59
What then of manned space exploration?
174
659000
3000
A što je s istraživanjem svemira s ljudskim posadama?
11:04
The government recently announced plans to return to the moon by 2024.
175
664000
3000
Vlada je nedavno najavila planove za povratak na Mjesec do 2024.
11:08
The successful conclusion of that mission will result
176
668000
3000
Uspješan završetak te misije dovest će do
11:11
in infrequent visitation of the moon by a small number
177
671000
4000
ne baš čestih posjeta Mjesecu malog broja
11:15
of government scientists and pilots.
178
675000
2000
vladinih znanstvenika i pilota.
11:17
It will leave us no further along in the general expansion
179
677000
4000
Nećemo ostvariti ništa veći napredak u općem širenju
11:21
of humanity into space than we were 50 years ago.
180
681000
2000
čovječanstva u svemir u usporedbi s onim od prije 50 godina.
11:24
Something fundamental has to change
181
684000
2000
Nešto se iz temelja mora promijeniti
11:26
if we are to see common access to space in our lifetime.
182
686000
3000
ukoliko želimo doživjeti opći pristup svemiru tijekom našeg životnog vijeka.
11:29
What I'm going to show you next are a couple of controversial ideas.
183
689000
3000
Sada ću vam pokazati par kontroverznih ideja.
11:33
And I hope you'll bear with me and have some faith
184
693000
2000
I nadam se da ćete me saslušati i povjerovati
11:35
that there's credibility behind what we're going to say here.
185
695000
4000
da postoje znanstveni temelji za ovo što ću izreći.
11:39
There are three underpinnings of working in space privately.
186
699000
7000
Postoje tri poteškoće za privatno poduzetništvo u svemiru.
11:46
One of them is the requirement
187
706000
2000
Jedna od njih je potreba
11:48
for economical earth-to-space transport.
188
708000
2000
za ekonomičnim prijevozom sa Zemlje u svemir.
11:51
The Bert Rutans and Richard Bransons of this world
189
711000
3000
Bert Rutani i Richardi Bransoni ovog svijeta
11:54
have got this in their sights and I salute them.
190
714000
2000
uzeli su si to u zadatak i ovom prilikom ih pozdravljam.
11:56
Go, go, go.
191
716000
2000
Idemo, idemo, idemo!
11:58
The next thing we need are places to stay on orbit.
192
718000
3000
Druga stvar koju trebamo su naselja u orbiti.
12:01
Orbital hotels to start with, but workshops for the rest of us later on.
193
721000
3000
Orbitalni hoteli za početak, a kasnije i radionice za nas ostale.
12:04
The final missing piece, the real paradigm-buster, is this:
194
724000
6000
Posljednja karika koja nedostaje, razbijač paradigme, je ovo:
12:10
a gas station on orbit.
195
730000
2000
benzinska crpka u orbiti.
12:13
It's not going to look like that.
196
733000
2000
Neće baš ovako izgledati.
12:15
If it existed, it would change all future spacecraft design and space mission planning.
197
735000
6000
To bi promijenilo sve buduće dizajne svemirskih letjelica i planiranje misija.
12:21
Now, to give you a chance to understand
198
741000
3000
Kako biste shvatili
12:24
why there is power in that statement,
199
744000
3000
zašto je ovo moćna izjava,
12:27
I've got to give you the basics of Space 101.
200
747000
2000
trebam vam objasniti osnove svemirskog leta.
12:29
And the first thing is everything you do in space you pay by the kilogram.
201
749000
6000
Prva stvar je da sve što radite u svemiru plaćate po kilogramu.
12:37
Anybody drink one of these here this week?
202
757000
2000
Je li netko popio jednu od ovih ovaj tjedan?
12:40
You'd pay 10,000 dollars for that in orbit.
203
760000
4000
Za to biste platili 10.000 dolara u orbiti.
12:44
That's more than you pay for TED,
204
764000
2000
To je više nego što biste platili za TED,
12:46
if Google dropped their sponsorship.
205
766000
2000
kada bi Google ukinuo sponzorstvo.
12:48
(Laughter)
206
768000
2000
(smijeh)
12:51
The second is more than 90 percent of the weight of a vehicle is in propellant.
207
771000
5000
Druga stvar je da više od 90% mase vozila čini gorivo.
12:56
Thus, every time you'd want to do anything in space,
208
776000
4000
Stoga, svaki puta kada želite nešto napraviti u svemiru,
13:00
you are literally blowing away enormous sums of money
209
780000
4000
doslovno izgarate ogromne količine novca,
13:04
every time you hit the accelerator.
210
784000
2000
svaki put kada pritisnete na gas.
13:06
Not even the guys at Tesla can fight that physics.
211
786000
3000
Čak ni momci iz Tesle ne mogu protiv te fizike.
13:09
So, what if you could get your gas at a 10th the price?
212
789000
5000
A što ako biste mogli dobiti gorivo za desetinu cijene?
13:15
There is a place where you can.
213
795000
3000
Postoji mjesto gdje to možete.
13:18
In fact, you can get it better -- you can get it at 14 times lower
214
798000
3000
Zapravo, bilo bi i bolje - dobili biste ga za 14 puta nižu cijenu
13:21
if you can find propellant on the moon.
215
801000
3000
ukoliko biste pronašli gorivo na Mjesecu.
13:24
There is a little-known mission that was launched
216
804000
2000
Prije 13 godina Pentagon je lansirao
13:26
by the Pentagon, 13 years ago now, called Clementine.
217
806000
4000
malo poznatu misiju naziva "Clementine".
13:30
And the most amazing thing that came out of that mission
218
810000
2000
I najnevjerojatniji ishod te misije bila je
13:33
was a strong hydrogen signature at Shackleton crater
219
813000
3000
izrazita detekcija vodika u krateru Shackleton
13:36
on the south pole of the moon.
220
816000
2000
na južnom polu Mjeseca.
13:38
That signal was so strong,
221
818000
2000
Signal je bio toliko jak,
13:40
it could only have been produced by 10 trillion tons of water
222
820000
4000
da ga je moglo proizvesti samo 10 trilijuna tona vode
13:44
buried in the sediment, collected over millions and billions of years
223
824000
4000
zakopane u sediment, nakupljane milijunima i milijardama godina
13:48
by the impact of asteroids and comet material.
224
828000
4000
udarima asteroida i kometa.
13:55
If we're going to get that, and make that gas station possible,
225
835000
4000
Ako se želimo poslužiti time i tu benzinsku crpku učiniti mogućom,
13:59
we have to figure out ways to move large volumes of payload through space.
226
839000
3000
moramo smisliti način za prijevoz velikih količina tereta kroz svemir.
14:02
We can't do that right now.
227
842000
2000
Trenutno to ne možemo.
14:04
The way you normally build a system right now is you have a tube stack
228
844000
3000
Danas, normalan način izgradnje sustava za svemirski let je cilindar
14:07
that has to be launched from the ground,
229
847000
2000
koji se mora lansirati s tla
14:09
and resist all kinds of aerodynamic forces.
230
849000
2000
i mora se oduprijeti svakakvim aerodinamičkim silama.
14:11
We have to beat that.
231
851000
2000
Mi moramo bolje.
14:13
We can do it because in space there are no aerodynamics.
232
853000
3000
To možemo zato što u svemiru nema aerodinamike.
14:16
We can go and use inflatable systems for almost everything.
233
856000
4000
Možemo koristiti sustave na napuhavanje za gotovo sve.
14:20
This is an idea that, again, came out of Livermore back in 1989,
234
860000
4000
Ovo je ideja, koja je, opet, izašla iz Livermora još 1989.
14:24
with Dr. Lowell Wood's group.
235
864000
2000
od grupe dr. Lowella Wooda.
14:26
And we can extend that now to just about everything.
236
866000
4000
Danas to možemo proširiti na gotovo sve.
14:30
Bob Bigelow currently has a test article in the orbit.
237
870000
2000
Bob Bigelow trenutno ima testni uzorak u orbiti.
14:32
We can go much further.
238
872000
1000
Mi možemo dalje.
14:33
We can build space tugs, orbiting platforms for holding cryogens and water.
239
873000
5000
Možemo graditi svemirske tegljače, orbitirajuće platforme za kriogene i vodu.
14:38
There's another thing.
240
878000
2000
Ima još jedna stvar.
14:40
When you're coming back from the moon,
241
880000
2000
Kad se vraćate s Mjeseca,
14:42
you have to deal with orbital mechanics.
242
882000
2000
morate riješiti orbitalnu mehaniku.
14:44
It says you're moving 10,000 feet per second faster
243
884000
2000
Ona kaže da se krećete 3.000 metara u sekundi brže
14:46
than you really want to be to get back to your gas station.
244
886000
3000
nego što stvarno želite za vraćanje na svoju svemirsku benzinsku crpku.
14:49
You got two choices.
245
889000
2000
Imate dva izbora.
14:51
You can burn rocket fuel to get there, or you can do something really incredible.
246
891000
4000
Možete trošiti gorivo za kočenje ili možete učiniti nešto stvarno nevjerovatno.
14:55
You can dive into the stratosphere,
247
895000
2000
Možete zaroniti u stratosferu
14:57
and precisely dissipate that velocity, and come back out to the space station.
248
897000
4000
i precizno smanjiti tu brzinu te izaći s druge strane na crpku.
15:01
It has never been done.
249
901000
1000
To nikad nije učinjeno.
15:02
It's risky and it's going to be one hell of a ride --
250
902000
4000
Riskantno je i bit će to stvarno luda vožnja -
15:06
better than Disney.
251
906000
2000
bolja nego u Disneyu.
15:08
The traditional approach to space exploration
252
908000
2000
Tradicionalni pristup svemirskom istraživanju
15:10
has been that you carry all the fuel you need
253
910000
2000
bio je da sa sobom nosite sve gorivo
15:12
to get everybody back in case of an emergency.
254
912000
2000
potrebno da se svi vratite u slučaju nužde.
15:14
If you try to do that for the moon,
255
914000
2000
Ako to pokušate za Mjesec,
15:16
you're going to burn a billion dollars in fuel alone sending a crew out there.
256
916000
4000
spalit ćete milijardu dolara u gorivu samo za slanje posade.
15:20
But if you send a mining team there,
257
920000
2000
Ali ako prvo pošaljete rudarski tim,
15:22
without the return propellant, first --
258
922000
2000
bez goriva za povratak...
15:24
(Laughter)
259
924000
4000
(smijeh)
15:29
Did any of you guys hear the story of Cortez?
260
929000
3000
Jel netko od vas čuo priču o Cortezu?
15:33
This is not like that. I'm much more like Scotty.
261
933000
2000
Ovo nije poput toga. Ja sam više kao Scotty.
15:35
I like this equipment, you know, and I really value it
262
935000
3000
Znate, stvarno volim ovu opremu i zaista ju cijenim
15:38
so we're not going to burn the gear.
263
938000
2000
zato je nećemo spaliti.
15:40
But, if you were truly bold you could get it there, manufacture it,
264
940000
4000
Ali ako biste bili stvarno hrabri mogli bi je dostaviti tamo, pokrenuti proizvodnju,
15:44
and it would be the most dramatic demonstration
265
944000
2000
i to bi bila najdramatičnija demonstracija
15:46
that you could do something worthwhile off this planet
266
946000
2000
da stvarno možete napraviti nešto korisno izvan ovog planeta,
15:48
that has ever been done.
267
948000
2000
što nitko nije učinio prije vas.
15:50
There's a myth that you can't do anything in space
268
950000
3000
Postoji mit da se u svemiru ne može ništa napraviti
15:53
for less than a trillion dollars and 20 years.
269
953000
4000
za manje od trilijun dolara i 20 godina.
15:57
That's not true.
270
957000
1000
To nije istina.
15:58
In seven years, we could pull off
271
958000
2000
Za sedam godina, mogli bi ostvariti
16:00
an industrial mission to Shackleton and demonstrate
272
960000
2000
industrijsku misiju na Shackletonu i pokazati
16:02
that you could provide commercial reality out of this in low-earth orbit.
273
962000
4000
da se od ovoga može stvoriti komercijalna stvarnost u niskoj orbiti oko Zemlje.
16:07
We're living in one of the most exciting times in history.
274
967000
3000
Živimo u najuzbudljivijim vremenima u povijesti.
16:10
We're at a magical confluence where private wealth
275
970000
2000
Nalazimo se na čarobnom ušću privatnog bogatstva
16:12
and imagination are driving the demand for access to space.
276
972000
4000
u maštu, što dovodi do potražnje za pristupom svemiru.
16:16
The orbital refueling stations I've just described
277
976000
3000
Orbitalna crpka koju sam opisao
16:19
could create an entirely new industry and provide the final key
278
979000
3000
mogla bi stvoriti potpuno novu industriju i pružiti zadnju
16:22
for opening space to the general exploration.
279
982000
4000
kariku za otvaranje svemira za opće istraživanje.
16:26
To bust the paradigm a radically different approach is needed.
280
986000
4000
Kako bismo razbili paradigmu potreban je radikalno drugačiji pristup.
16:30
We can do it by jump-starting with an industrial
281
990000
2000
To možemo učiniti pomoću skoka naprijed sa
16:32
Lewis and Clark expedition to Shackleton crater,
282
992000
3000
industrijskom Lewis i Clark ekspedicijom u krater Shackleton,
16:35
to mine the moon for resources, and demonstrate
283
995000
2000
radi eksploatacije resursa na Mjesecu za resurse i pokazali
16:37
they can form the basis for a profitable business on orbit.
284
997000
4000
da to može biti osnova za profitabilne poslove u orbiti.
16:41
Talk about space always seems to be hung on ambiguities
285
1001000
3000
Govor o svemiru se uvijek vrti oko nejasnoća
16:44
of purpose and timing.
286
1004000
2000
svrhe i pravog trenutka.
16:46
I would like to close here by putting a stake in the sand at TED.
287
1006000
4000
Završio bi zabijanjem kolca u pijesak ovdje na TED-u.
16:51
I intend to lead that expedition.
288
1011000
2000
Ja namjeravam voditi tu ekspediciju.
16:53
(Applause)
289
1013000
8000
(pljesak)
17:01
It can be done in seven years with the right backing.
290
1021000
3000
Sa odgovarajućom podrškom to se može učiniti za sedam godina.
17:04
Those who join me in making it happen will become a part of history
291
1024000
4000
Oni koji mi se pridruže u ovom pothvatu postat će dio povijesti
17:08
and join other bold individuals from time past
292
1028000
2000
i tako se pridružiti drugim smjelim pojedincima iz prošlosti
17:10
who, had they been here today, would have heartily approved.
293
1030000
4000
koji bi, da su ovdje danas, hrabro odobravali.
17:15
There was once a time when people did bold things to open the frontier.
294
1035000
5000
Nekada su ljudi činili odvažne stvari kako bi pomakli granice.
17:20
We have collectively forgotten that lesson.
295
1040000
4000
Mi smo kolektivno zaboravili tu lekciju.
17:25
Now we're at a time when boldness is required to move forward.
296
1045000
4000
Nalazimo se u trenutku kada je potrebna odvažnost kako bi se pomakli naprijed.
17:31
100 years after Sir Ernest Shackleton wrote these words,
297
1051000
4000
100 godina nakon što je Sir Ernest Shackleton napisao ove riječi,
17:35
I intend to plant an industrial flag on the moon
298
1055000
2000
ja namjeravam zabiti industrijsku zastavu na Mjesec
17:37
and complete the final piece
299
1057000
3000
i stvoriti posljednju kariku u lancu
17:40
that will open the space frontier, in our time, for all of us.
300
1060000
4000
koja bi otvorila svemirska prostranstva, u našem vremenu, za sve nas.
17:44
Thank you.
301
1064000
1000
Hvala.
17:45
(Applause)
302
1065000
8000
(pljesak)
O ovoj web stranici

Ova stranica će vas upoznati s YouTube videozapisima koji su korisni za učenje engleskog jezika. Vidjet ćete lekcije engleskog koje vode vrhunski profesori iz cijelog svijeta. Dvaput kliknite na engleske titlove prikazane na svakoj video stranici da biste reproducirali video s tog mjesta. Titlovi se pomiču sinkronizirano s reprodukcijom videozapisa. Ako imate bilo kakvih komentara ili zahtjeva, obratite nam se putem ovog obrasca za kontakt.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7