What Earth in 2050 could look like - Shannon Odell

Prevodilac: Nevena Ciric Lektor: Milenka Okuka

While we’re already feeling the devastating effects

Iako već osećamo razorne efekte

of human-caused climate change,

klimatskih promena izazvanih ljudskim delovanjem,

governments continue to fall short on making and executing emissions pledges

vlade ipak ne uspevaju da ispune obećanja koja se tiču smanjenja emisija

that would help thwart further warming.

što bi usporilo dodatno zagrevanje.

So, what will our world look like in the next 30 to 80 years,

Mnogi se pitaju kako će naš svet da izgleda u narednih 30 do 80 godina,

if we continue on the current path?

ukoliko nastavimo ovim putem?

While it’s impossible to know exactly how the next decade will unfold,

Iako je nemoguće predvideti kako će se stvari razvijati u narednoj deceniji,

scientists and climate experts have made projections,

naučnici i klimatski stručnjaci prave predviđanja

factoring in the current state of affairs.

uzimajući u obzir trenutno stanje stvari.

This future we’re about to describe is bleak,

Budućnost koju ćemo vam opisati je sumorna,

but remember there’s still time to ensure it doesn’t become our reality.

ali zapamtite, i dalje imamo vremena da se postaramo da ne postane stvarnost.

It’s 2050.

Godina je 2050.

We’ve blown past the 1.5 degree target that world leaders promised to stick to.

Prešli smo granicu od 1,5°C koju su nam svetski lideri obećali da nećemo preći.

The Earth has warmed 2 degrees since the 1800s,

Zemlja se ugrejala za 2°C od 1800-ih,

when the world first started burning fossil fuels in mass scale.

kada je svet prvi put počeo masovno da koristi fosilna goriva.

Reports on heatwaves and wildfires regularly fill the evening news.

Izveštaji o toplotnim talasima i požarima neizostavan su deo večernjih vesti.

Summer days exceed 40 degrees in London and 45 degrees in Delhi,

Letnji dani dostižu preko 40°C u Londonu i 45°C u Delhiju,

as extreme heat waves are now 8 to 9 times more common.

dok su ekstremni toplotni talasi, osam do devet puta učestaliji.

These high temperatures prompt widespread blackouts,

Visoke temperature uzrokuju učestale prekide struje

as power grids struggle to keep up with the energy demands

dok mreže pokušavaju da zadovolje energetsku potražnju

needed to properly cool homes.

neophodnu za adekvatno hlađenje domaćinstava.

Ambulance sirens blare through the night,

Sirene hitne pomoći se čuju tokom noći,

carrying patients suffering from heatstroke, dehydration, and exhaustion.

prevozeći pacijente koji pate od toplotnog udara, dehidracije i iscrpljenosti.

The southwestern United States, southern Africa, and eastern Australia

Jugozapadna područja SAD-a, južni delovi Afrike i istočna Austrlija

experience longer, more frequent, and more severe droughts.

se suočavaju sa dužim, češćim i znatno ozbiljnijim sušama.

Meanwhile, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Japan

U međuvremenu, Filipini, Indonezija i japan

face more frequent heavy rainfall

se suočavaju sa sve češćim obilnim padavinama

as rising temperatures cause water to evaporate faster,

jer rastuće temperature uzrokuju brže isparavanje vode

and trap more water in the atmosphere.

koja se duže zadržava u atmosferi.

As the weather becomes more erratic,

Kako vremenski uslovi postaju nestabilniji,

some communities are unable to keep pace with rebuilding

neka naseljena područja nisu u stanju da nanovo izgrade

what’s constantly destroyed.

stvari koje se konstantno uništavaju.

Many move to cities,

Mnogi se sele u gradove.

where they face housing shortages and a lack of jobs.

Suočavaju se sa manjkom stambenog prostora i posla.

A resource squeeze is felt in newborn intensive care wards,

Oseća se nedostatak resursa na intenzivnoj nezi u porodilištima,

as the rising temperature and air pollution

pošto rastuća temperatura i zagađenje vazduha

cause higher rates of premature and underweight births.

dovode do većeg broja prevremeno rođenih i neuhranjenih beba.

More children develop asthma and respiratory disease,

Sve više dece oboleva od astme i respiratornih bolesti,

and rates balloon in communities regularly exposed to forest fire smoke.

i stope su alarmantne u zajednicama koje su izložene dimu od šumskih požara.

The global emissions added to the atmosphere each year

Globalne emisije, koje su godinama u porastu,

finally start to level off, thanks to government action,

konačno počinju da se stabilizuju, zahvaljujući merama vlade,

but it’s decades too late.

ali je nekoliko decenija dockan.

We fail to reach net zero in time.

Ne uspevamo da na vreme dostignemo neto nulu.

As a result, by 2100 the Earth has warmed another 0.5 to 1.5 degrees.

Kao posledica toga, do 2100. Zemlja se zagreva dodatanih 0,5°C do 1,5°C.

Over half of our remaining glaciers have melted.

Više od polovine preostalih glečera se istopilo.

As the sea heats up, its volume increases due to thermal expansion.

More se zagreva i njegova zapremina raste usled termičkog širenja.

Together, this elevates sea level by well over a meter.

Nivo mora raste znatno više od metra.

Entire nations, like the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu, are uninhabitable

Čitave nacije, poput Maršalskih Ostrva i Tuvalua, postaju nenaseljiva područja

as large swaths of their islands are submerged.

jer su veliki delovi njihovih ostrva potopljeni.

Some islands, like the Maldives,

Neka ostrva, poput Maldiva,

spend billions building interconnected rafts

troše milijarde na izgradnju povezanih splavova

that house apartments, schools, and restaurants

na kojima su smešteni stanovi, škole i restorani

that float above its drowned cities.

koji plutaju nad ostacima potopljenih gradova.

Resettled climate migrants in Jakarta, Mumbai, and Lagos

Raseljeni klimatski migranti u Džakarti, Mumbaju i Lagosu

are forced to abandon their homes once again,

primorani su da ponovo napuste svoje domove

as rising tides and extreme storms flood buildings and crumble infrastructure.

dok sve jače plime i ekstremne oluje plave zgrade i uništavaju infrastrukturu.

Overall, 250 million people are displaced.

Ukupno, 250 miliona ljudi je raseljeno.

Some affluent cities like New York and Shanghai attempt to adapt,

Neki bogati gradovi poput Njujorka i Šangaja pokušavaju da se prilagode,

elevating buildings and roadways.

izdižući zgrade i puteve.

Ten-meter-tall seawalls line the cities’ coasts.

Desetometarski zidovi štite obale ovih gradova.

Children learn about extinct sea life which once inhabited the ocean’s reefs,

Deca uče o izumrlim vrstama koje su nekada naseljavale koralne grebene,

all of which have vanished thanks to rising surface water temperatures.

a koje su nestale zbog porasta površinske temperature okeana.

Grocery prices skyrocket,

Cene su rekordno visoke

as food and water scarcity touch all communities.

jer su nestašica hrane i vode zahvatile sve zajednice.

Fruits and products long grown in the tropics and subtropics

Voće i proizvodi iz tropskih i suptropskih krajeva

rarely show up on shelves,

retko se mogu naći na policama

as intense heat waves paired with increasing humidity

jer intenzivni toplotni talasi uz povećanu vlažnost vazduha

make it deadly for farmers to work outdoors.

čine poljoprivredni rad napolju smrtonosnim.

Unpredictable heatwaves, droughts, and floods

Nepredvidivi toplotni talasi, suše i poplave

cripple small-scale farmers in Africa, Asia, and South America,

nanose veliku štetu malim proizvođačima širom Afrike, Azije i Južne Amerike

who previously produced one-third of the world’s food.

koji su donedavno proizvodili jednu trećinu svetske hrane.

Hundreds of millions of people are pushed into hunger and famine.

Stotine miliona ljudi suočava se sa teškim nestašicama hrane.

Climate predictions can feel overwhelming and terrifying.

Prognoze klimatskih promena deluju zaista zastrašujuće.

Yet many of the experts responsible for these assessments remain optimistic.

Ipak, mnogi stručnjaci koji su odgovorni za ove procene ostaju optimistični.

Since countries have first begun taking steps to lower their emissions,

Otkad su zemlje počele da preduzimaju korake za smanjenje emisija,

warming projections have shifted downwards.

projekcije zagrevanja su se smanjile.

In less than a decade, we’ve reduced our projected emission rates

Za manje od jedne decenije, smanjili smo predviđene stope emisija

so that we’re no longer on track to hit nearly 4 degrees of warming.

tako da više nismo na putu da dostignemo gotovo 4°C zagrevanja.

Policies that invest in renewable energy sources,

Programi koji ulažu u obnovljive izvore energije,

cut fossil fuel production, support electric transportation,

smanjuju proizvodnju fosilnih goriva, podstiču upotrebu električnih vozila,

protect our forests, and regulate industry

štite naše šume i regulišu industriju

can help mitigate the worst effects of climate change.

mogu umanjiti najgore posledice klimatskih promena.

But climate experts have also stressed that current policies and pledges

Međutim, stručnjaci naglašavaju i da trenutne politike i obećanja

don’t go far enough— in speed or scale.

nisu dovoljno striktni — ni po brzini sprovođenja, ni po obimu.

Enacting real change will require bold solutions,

Sprovođenje stvarnih promena će da zahteva hrabra rešenja,

innovations, and collective action.

inovacije i kolektivnu akciju.

There’s still time to rewrite our future, and every tenth of a degree counts.

Budućnost je u našim rukama, zato je svaki doprinos važan.