What Earth in 2050 could look like - Shannon Odell

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: 麗玲 辛

While we’re already feeling the devastating effects

雖然我們已感受到人類引起的 氣候變遷所帶來的毀滅性影響，

of human-caused climate change,

governments continue to fall short on making and executing emissions pledges

但政府依然無法做出 排放承諾，並實際執行，

that would help thwart further warming.

來避免進一步的暖化。

So, what will our world look like in the next 30 to 80 years,

所以，如果我們繼續這樣下去， 在接下來的三十到八十年，

if we continue on the current path?

我們的世界會變成什麼樣子？

While it’s impossible to know exactly how the next decade will unfold,

雖然不可能確切知道 未來十年會如何發展，

scientists and climate experts have made projections,

但科學家和氣候專家 都做出了一些預測，

factoring in the current state of affairs.

且有把當前狀況考慮進去。

This future we’re about to describe is bleak,

我們等下要描述的這個未來慘淡無望，

but remember there’s still time to ensure it doesn’t become our reality.

但別忘了，還有時間可以確保 它不會成為我們的現實。

It’s 2050.

到了 2050 年。

We’ve blown past the 1.5 degree target that world leaders promised to stick to.

世界領導人承諾要堅守的 一點五度目標已經失守。

The Earth has warmed 2 degrees since the 1800s,

比起 1800 年代時， 地球的溫度已經上升了兩度，

when the world first started burning fossil fuels in mass scale.

1800 年代是世界開始 大規模燃燒化石燃料的時期。

Reports on heatwaves and wildfires regularly fill the evening news.

晚間新聞常常滿是 熱浪和野火的相關報導。

Summer days exceed 40 degrees in London and 45 degrees in Delhi,

夏天，倫敦的氣溫超過四十度， 德里則超過四十五度，

as extreme heat waves are now 8 to 9 times more common.

極端熱浪出現的機率 是現在的八到九倍。

These high temperatures prompt widespread blackouts,

這些高溫會造成大範圍的停電，

as power grids struggle to keep up with the energy demands

因為電力網難以滿足將家戶溫度 降到適溫的必要能源需求。

needed to properly cool homes.

Ambulance sirens blare through the night,

救護車的警笛聲在夜晚長鳴，

carrying patients suffering from heatstroke, dehydration, and exhaustion.

載送中暑、脫水，和衰竭的病人。

The southwestern United States, southern Africa, and eastern Australia

美國西南部、非洲南部，和澳州東部

experience longer, more frequent, and more severe droughts.

出現更長、更頻繁， 且更嚴重的乾旱。

Meanwhile, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Japan

同時，菲律賓、印尼，和日本

face more frequent heavy rainfall

面臨更頻繁的大雨，

as rising temperatures cause water to evaporate faster,

因為溫度上升讓水蒸發的速度更快，

and trap more water in the atmosphere.

並將更多的水氣留在大氣中。

As the weather becomes more erratic,

隨著天氣變得更不穩定，

some communities are unable to keep pace with rebuilding

有些社區重建的速度 跟不上不斷被破壞的速度。

what’s constantly destroyed.

Many move to cities,

許多人搬到城市裡，卻面臨 住房短缺和缺乏就業機會。

where they face housing shortages and a lack of jobs.

A resource squeeze is felt in newborn intensive care wards,

在新生兒加護病房 可以感受到資源的緊張，

as the rising temperature and air pollution

因為不斷升高的溫度和空氣汙染

cause higher rates of premature and underweight births.

造成低出生體重兒 和早產兒的比率變高。

More children develop asthma and respiratory disease,

越來越多的兒童患有 氣喘和呼吸系統疾病，

and rates balloon in communities regularly exposed to forest fire smoke.

在經常遭受森林大火煙霧的 社區中，比率更是爆增。

The global emissions added to the atmosphere each year

每年全球新增到大氣中的排放

finally start to level off, thanks to government action,

終於開始趨於穩定， 這要歸功於政府的行動，

but it’s decades too late.

但已經遲了數十年。

We fail to reach net zero in time.

我們未能及時達成淨零目標。

As a result, by 2100 the Earth has warmed another 0.5 to 1.5 degrees.

因此，到 2100 年，

地球暖化又增加了 0.5 到 1.5 度。

Over half of our remaining glaciers have melted.

我們剩下的冰川 有一半以上已經融化。

As the sea heats up, its volume increases due to thermal expansion.

隨著海洋溫度升高， 其體積也因為熱膨脹而變大。

Together, this elevates sea level by well over a meter.

總共導致海平面上升了一公尺以上。

Entire nations, like the Marshall Islands and Tuvalu, are uninhabitable

馬紹爾群島和吐瓦魯等國家 全國境內都無法居住，

as large swaths of their islands are submerged.

因為它們島嶼的 絕大部分都被淹沒了。

Some islands, like the Maldives,

有些島嶼，例如馬爾地夫，

spend billions building interconnected rafts

花了數十億美元來建造 相互連結的浮台，

that house apartments, schools, and restaurants

讓公寓、學校，和餐廳能建在上面，

that float above its drowned cities.

漂浮在沉沒的城市上方。

Resettled climate migrants in Jakarta, Mumbai, and Lagos

在雅加達、孟買，和拉哥斯， 重新定居的氣候移民

are forced to abandon their homes once again,

被迫再次拋棄自己的家園，

as rising tides and extreme storms flood buildings and crumble infrastructure.

因為上升的海平面和極端暴風雨 淹沒建築物、摧毀基礎設施。

Overall, 250 million people are displaced.

總共有兩億五千萬人流離失所。

Some affluent cities like New York and Shanghai attempt to adapt,

紐約和上海等富裕的城市 試圖因應變化，

elevating buildings and roadways.

提升建築物和道路的高度。

Ten-meter-tall seawalls line the cities’ coasts.

這些城市的海岸建起了 十公尺高的防波堤。

Children learn about extinct sea life which once inhabited the ocean’s reefs,

孩子在學的是絕種的海洋生物， 牠們曾經居住在海洋珊瑚礁中，

all of which have vanished thanks to rising surface water temperatures.

造成牠們消失的原因， 是海面溫度上升。

Grocery prices skyrocket,

所有社區都面臨食物和水 短缺而導致的雜貨價格飆升。

as food and water scarcity touch all communities.

Fruits and products long grown in the tropics and subtropics

以往在熱帶和亞熱帶地區 種植的水果和產品

rarely show up on shelves,

很少出現在貨架上，

as intense heat waves paired with increasing humidity

因為劇烈的熱浪加上濕度增加

make it deadly for farmers to work outdoors.

讓農民在戶外工作都會有生命危險。

Unpredictable heatwaves, droughts, and floods

不可預測的熱浪、乾旱，和洪水

cripple small-scale farmers in Africa, Asia, and South America,

讓非洲、亞洲，和南美洲的 小規模農民什麼也做不了，

who previously produced one-third of the world’s food.

以前，全球食物有三分之一 是由他們生產的。

Hundreds of millions of people are pushed into hunger and famine.

數億人陷入飢餓和飢荒中。

Climate predictions can feel overwhelming and terrifying.

氣候預測可能會讓人覺得 難以承受和害怕。

Yet many of the experts responsible for these assessments remain optimistic.

然而，許多負責做這類評估的 專家仍然抱持樂觀。

Since countries have first begun taking steps to lower their emissions,

自從各國開始採取措施 降低排放量以來，

warming projections have shifted downwards.

暖化預測已經向下修正。

In less than a decade, we’ve reduced our projected emission rates

在不到十年內，我們已經 降低了我們預測的排放率，

so that we’re no longer on track to hit nearly 4 degrees of warming.

讓我們不再朝向近四度的暖化邁進。

Policies that invest in renewable energy sources,

有許多政策都在投資可再生能源、

cut fossil fuel production, support electric transportation,

減少化石燃料生產、支持電動運輸、

protect our forests, and regulate industry

保護我們的森林，及規範產業，

can help mitigate the worst effects of climate change.

這些都能協助緩解 最糟糕的氣候變遷影響。

But climate experts have also stressed that current policies and pledges

但氣候專家也強調， 當前的政策和承諾

don’t go far enough— in speed or scale.

在速度或規模上都還不夠。

Enacting real change will require bold solutions,

要真正造成改變， 就需要大膽的解決方案、

innovations, and collective action.

創新，及大家一起行動。

There’s still time to rewrite our future, and every tenth of a degree counts.

還有時間重寫我們的未來， 且每十分之一度都舉足輕重。