We've stopped trusting institutions and started trusting strangers | Rachel Botsman

譯者: Hsun Ying Tsai 審譯者: Winston Szeto

Let's talk about trust.

讓我們來談談信任。

We all know trust is fundamental,

我們都知道信任是萬物之本，

but when it comes to trusting people,

但當談及人跟人之間的信任時，

something profound is happening.

有些意味深遠的事情便發生了。

Please raise your hand

如果各位曾經是 Airbnb 的 房東或房客的話，請舉手。

if you have ever been a host or a guest on Airbnb.

Wow. That's a lot of you.

哇！很多人。

Who owns Bitcoin?

誰有比特幣？

Still a lot of you. OK.

也是非常多人！

And please raise your hand if you've ever used Tinder

那麼如果你曾使用 Tinder 幫助你找到對象的話，也請舉手。

to help you find a mate.

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

This one's really hard to count because you're kind of going like this.

真的很難算有幾個人， 因為好像你們手都舉得很低。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

這些例子都顯示出科技創造的新機制

These are all examples of how technology

is creating new mechanisms

that are enabling us to trust unknown people, companies and ideas.

讓我們信任陌生的人、企業和想法。

And yet at the same time,

與此同時，

trust in institutions --

對制度的信任，

banks, governments and even churches --

對銀行、政府 甚至教會的信任正在瓦解。

is collapsing.

So what's happening here,

所以，發生了什麼事？ 你現在還信任誰？

and who do you trust?

Let's start in France with a platform -- with a company, I should say --

我們從法國的一個平台開始談。

with a rather funny-sounding name,

這其實是一間名字聽起來 有點搞笑的公司，

BlaBlaCar.

叫做「BlaBlaCar」。

It's a platform that matches drivers and passengers

這個平台

為想要一起分享長途旅行的 司機和乘客進行配對。

who want to share long-distance journeys together.

The average ride taken is 320 kilometers.

已經完成的路途平均 320 公里。

So it's a good idea to choose your fellow travelers wisely.

所以大家最好明智地選擇旅伴。

Social profiles and reviews help people make a choice.

社交媒體帳戶簡介和評論 幫助人們做選擇。

You can see if someone's a smoker, you can see what kind of music they like,

你可以知道他是否抽菸， 你可以知道他喜歡的音樂類型，

you can see if they're going to bring their dog along for the ride.

你可以知道他們會否帶著愛犬出遊。

But it turns out that the key social identifier

但其實最關鍵的社會標識符

is how much you're going to talk in the car.

卻是你在車裡會說多少話。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Bla, not a lot,

Bla 代表話不多，

bla bla, you want a nice bit of chitchat,

Bla Bla 表示你們想來點閒聊，

and bla bla bla, you're not going to stop talking the entire way

Bla bla Bla 則表示倫敦到巴黎的 整段路程你們都沒完沒了的聊。

from London to Paris.

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

It's remarkable, right, that this idea works at all,

這個想法竟然奏效，實在出人意表，

because it's counter to the lesson most of us were taught as a child:

因為它違反我們當中大部分 自小被教導的道理：

never get in a car with a stranger.

永遠不要進到陌生人的車裡。

And yet, BlaBlaCar transports more than four million people

然而 BlaBlaCar 的每月載客量 已經超過四百萬人。

every single month.

To put that in context, that's more passengers

具體地說，這比歐洲之星 和捷藍航空的載客量還多。

than the Eurostar or JetBlue airlines carry.

BlaBlaCar is a beautiful illustration of how technology is enabling

BlaBlaCar 絕佳體現出

科技如何讓全球數百萬人 改弦易轍互相信任。

millions of people across the world to take a trust leap.

A trust leap happens when we take the risk to do something new or different

信任大躍進在於我們承擔風險，

做點全新或跟以前做法不同的事情。

to the way that we've always done it.

Let's try to visualize this together.

讓我們一起想像這是甚麼回事。

OK. I want you to close your eyes.

我想請你們閉上眼睛。

There is a man staring at me with his eyes wide open.

那邊有個人張開眼睛看著我，

I'm on this big red circle. I can see.

站在這紅色大圓圈上的我都看到了，

So close your eyes.

所以請你們閉上眼睛。

(Laughter) (Applause)

（笑聲）（拍手）

I'll do it with you.

我會與你們一起想像。

And I want you to imagine there exists a gap

我要你們想像和某個 不熟悉的事物之間有一條間隙。

between you and something unknown.

That unknown can be someone you've just met.

這個不熟悉的事物可能是你剛遇到的人。

It can be a place you've never been to.

這可以是你不曾去過的地方。

It can be something you've never tried before.

這可以是你不曾嘗試過的事物。

You got it?

這樣懂嗎？

OK. You can open your eyes now.

好的，你們可以張開眼睛了。

For you to leap from a place of certainty,

要你們從明確的地方大跳躍出去，

to take a chance on that someone or something unknown,

嘗試跟不熟悉的人和事一起，

you need a force to pull you over the gap,

你需要一股力量 將你拉起越過那一條間隙，

and that remarkable force is trust.

而那股意想不到的力量就是信任。

Trust is an elusive concept,

信任是難以捉摸的概念，

and yet we depend on it for our lives to function.

但我們必須有信任才可活出人生。

I trust my children

當我的子女說會在晚上關燈時， 我信任他們。

when they say they're going to turn the lights out at night.

I trusted the pilot who flew me here to keep me safe.

我信任飛機機師安全地接載我過來。

It's a word we use a lot,

我們經常用到這個詞語，

without always thinking about what it really means

卻沒有常常思考它真正的涵義，

and how it works in different contexts of our lives.

也沒有思考它如何 在人生的不同情境活出來。

There are, in fact, hundreds of definitions of trust,

其實信任的定義數以百計，

and most can be reduced to some kind of risk assessment

當中大多數都可簡化為

某種對事情順利或然率的風險評估。

of how likely it is that things will go right.

But I don't like this definition of trust,

但我不喜歡這樣對信任所下的定義，

because it makes trust sound rational and predictable,

因為這使信任聽起來 理性且可以預測；

and it doesn't really get to the human essence

這樣的定義也捕捉不到人的本質，

of what it enables us to do

捕捉不到信任可以讓我們做到的事，

and how it empowers us

以及信任如何讓我們能夠 與其他人聯繫起來。

to connect with other people.

So I define trust a little differently.

因此我對信任所下的定義有些不同，

I define trust as a confident relationship to the unknown.

我把信任定義為與未知的事物 建立起充滿信心的關係。

Now, when you view trust through this lens,

當你透過這塊鏡片看待信任，

it starts to explain why it has the unique capacity

才能夠解釋 為何信任有一種特別的能力

to enable us to cope with uncertainty,

讓我們應付不確定的事物，

to place our faith in strangers,

讓我們信任陌生人，

to keep moving forward.

讓我們持續往前走。

Human beings are remarkable

人類進行信任大躍進時 表現非常出色。

at taking trust leaps.

Do you remember the first time you put your credit card details

你還記得第一次 將信用卡資料輸入到網站上嗎？

into a website?

That's a trust leap.

那就是信任大躍進。

I distinctly remember telling my dad

我還清楚記得曾經告訴父親，

that I wanted to buy a navy blue secondhand Peugeot on eBay,

我想在 eBay 上買一台 海軍藍色的二手寶獅汽車，

and he rightfully pointed out

我父親直接點出 賣家的名字叫做「隱形巫師」，

that the seller's name was "Invisible Wizard"

and that this probably was not such a good idea.

所以不應該跟他買車。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So my work, my research focuses on how technology

我專注研究科技如何轉變

is transforming the social glue of society,

社會凝聚力和人與人之間的信任，

trust between people,

and it's a fascinating area to study,

這個研究領域非常地吸引人，

because there's still so much we do not know.

因為這領域還有很多 我們未知的事物。

For instance, do men and women trust differently in digital environments?

譬如，數位環境中的信任感 是否存在男女之別？

Does the way we build trust face-to-face translate online?

我們面對面建立信任的方式 同樣適用在網路上嗎？

Does trust transfer?

信任可以移轉嗎﹖

So if you trust finding a mate on Tinder,

如果你信任在 Tinder 上找到伴侶，

are you more likely to trust finding a ride on BlaBlaCar?

那麼會否更傾向信任 在 BlaBlaCar 上找到人共乘嗎？

But from studying hundreds of networks and marketplaces,

研究數百個網路和市場的結果顯示，

there is a common pattern that people follow,

大家都會遵循一個共同模式，

and I call it "climbing the trust stack."

我稱之為「爬上信任層疊」。

Let me use BlaBlaCar as an example to bring it to life.

就讓我用 BlaBlaCar 作例子 去生動地形容這概念。

On the first level,

在第一個層次，你要信任這個想法。

you have to trust the idea.

So you have to trust

你必須要信任 共乘這個想法是安全且值得一試。

the idea of ride-sharing is safe and worth trying.

The second level is about having confidence in the platform,

第二個層次關乎對這個平台的信心，

that BlaBlaCar will help you if something goes wrong.

相信 BlaBlaCar 會在 發生狀況時幫助你。

And the third level is about using little bits of information

第三個層次是用一點一點的資訊

to decide whether the other person is trustworthy.

決定另一個人是否值得信任。

Now, the first time we climb the trust stack,

當我們第一次爬上信任層疊，

it feels weird, even risky,

我們覺得奇怪，甚至感到危險，

but we get to a point where these ideas seem totally normal.

但我們最後都會相信 這些都是看似完全正常的想法。

Our behaviors transform,

我們的行為往往轉變得很快。

often relatively quickly.

In other words, trust enables change and innovation.

也就是說，信任促使改變和創新。

So an idea that intrigued me, and I'd like you to consider,

我對某個想法很感興趣， 我也希望你們一起來思考：

is whether we can better understand

我們可否透過信任這鏡片更清楚知道

major waves of disruption and change in individuals in society

個人和社會層面的主要轉折和轉變。

through the lens of trust.

Well, it turns out that trust has only evolved

原來信任在整個人類歷史上

in three significant chapters throughout the course of human history:

只有三個顯著的進化階段：

local, institutional

本地屬性、體制屬性，

and what we're now entering, distributed.

以及我們即將進入的分配屬性階段。

So for a long time,

在 19 世紀中葉前的 一段漫長時間，

until the mid-1800s,

trust was built around tight-knit relationships.

信任是圍繞着緊密關係而建立。

So say I lived in a village

假設我跟前五排的觀眾

with the first five rows of this audience,

一起住在村莊裡，彼此認識，

and we all knew one another,

and say I wanted to borrow money.

並假設我要借錢。

The man who had his eyes wide open, he might lend it to me,

剛剛睜眼的先生可能會借錢給我，

and if I didn't pay him back,

如果我沒有還他錢， 大家都會知道我信不過，

you'd all know I was dodgy.

I would get a bad reputation,

我的名聲就臭掉了， 以後你也不會想要跟我做生意。

and you would refuse to do business with me in the future.

Trust was mostly local and accountability-based.

信任大都具有本地屬性， 以問責為基礎。

In the mid-19th century,

在 19 世紀中葉， 社會經歷了巨大的轉變。

society went through a tremendous amount of change.

People moved to fast-growing cities such as London and San Francisco,

大家搬遷到倫敦或舊金山等 快速發展的城市，

and a local banker here was replaced by large corporations

在個人層次上不認識我們的大集團

that didn't know us as individuals.

取代了本地銀行家。

We started to place our trust

我們開始信任權力機關的黑箱體制，

into black box systems of authority,

things like legal contracts and regulation and insurance,

例如法律合同、監管規則和保險，

and less trust directly in other people.

較少直接信任其他人。

Trust became institutional and commission-based.

信任變成具有體制屬性， 以委託為基礎。

It's widely talked about how trust in institutions and many corporate brands

對體制及很多公司品牌的信任

has been steadily declining and continues to do so.

眾所周知已經並將會持續下滑。

I am constantly stunned by major breaches of trust:

我經常對重大的 破壞信任行為感到驚訝：

the News Corp phone hacking,

新聞集團電話竊聽案；

the Volkswagen emissions scandal,

福斯汽車廢氣排放醜聞；

the widespread abuse in the Catholic Church,

鋪天蓋地的天主教教會性侵案；

the fact that only one measly banker

巨大的金融危機後只有 一個卑鄙小銀行家入獄；

went to jail after the great financial crisis,

or more recently the Panama Papers

或者最近的巴拿馬文件

that revealed how the rich can exploit offshore tax regimes.

揭示富人如何利用離岸公司避稅。

And the thing that really surprises me

使我感到無比驚訝的是，

is why do leaders find it so hard

當我們之間的信任被打破後，

to apologize, I mean sincerely apologize,

為何領袖認為誠懇道歉是如此艱難﹖

when our trust is broken?

It would be easy to conclude that institutional trust isn't working

各位大可以總結， 對體制的信任失效，

because we are fed up

是因為我們對不誠實精英的 恣意妄為忍無可忍，

with the sheer audacity of dishonest elites,

but what's happening now

但現在發生的事所涉及的層面，

runs deeper than the rampant questioning of the size and structure of institutions.

並非不斷質疑 體制規模和結構所能觸及。

We're starting to realize

我們開始明白到，

that institutional trust

對體制的信任不是為數位時代而設。

wasn't designed for the digital age.

Conventions of how trust is built,

建立、經營、失去及修補 信任感的常規—

managed, lost and repaired --

in brands, leaders and entire systems --

無論是對品牌、領袖 或整個體系的信任─正被顛覆。

is being turned upside down.

Now, this is exciting,

這令人既興奮也害怕，

but it's frightening,

because it forces many of us to have to rethink

因為這使我們重新思考

how trust is built and destroyed with our customers, with our employees,

跟顧客、僱員甚至愛人的信任 是如何建立和摧毀。

even our loved ones.

The other day, I was talking to the CEO of a leading international hotel brand,

日前我與一間國際頂尖飯店品牌的 執行長對談，

and as is often the case, we got onto the topic of Airbnb.

正如一般情況， 我們聊到 Airbnb 這個話題。

And he admitted to me that he was perplexed by their success.

他向我承認難以理解 Airbnb 的成功。

He was perplexed at how a company

他難以理解

that depends on the willingness of strangers to trust one another

一間依靠陌生人願意互相信任的公司

could work so well across 191 countries.

竟可以在 191 個國家運作如此良好。

So I said to him that I had a confession to make,

我跟他說我有事情要自白，

and he looked at me a bit strangely,

他就用很奇怪的眼光看著我，

and I said --

然後我說— 我相信很多人都會這樣做─

and I'm sure many of you do this as well --

I don't always bother to hang my towels up

我在飯店用完毛巾都懶得掛起來，

when I'm finished in the hotel,

but I would never do this as a guest on Airbnb.

但我身為 Airbnb 的顧客 卻永遠不會這樣做，

And the reason why I would never do this as a guest on Airbnb

為什麼當 Airbnb 的顧客 永遠不會這樣做，

is because guests know that they'll be rated by hosts,

是因為顧客知道房東會給他們評分，

and that those ratings are likely to impact their ability

這些評分有可能影響到 他們日後能否進行交易。

to transact in the future.

It's a simple illustration of how online trust will change our behaviors

這簡單的刻畫出線上的信任感 將會如何改變我們現實世界的行為，

in the real world,

make us more accountable

使我們以從未想像過的方式 變得更有責任感。

in ways we cannot yet even imagine.

I am not saying we do not need hotels

我並非要說我們不需要飯店 或是傳統形式的權威。

or traditional forms of authority.

But what we cannot deny

但我們無法否認，

is that the way trust flows through society is changing,

信任在社會流通的方式已經改變了，

and it's creating this big shift

所創造出的巨大轉變，

away from the 20th century

就是由體制屬性信任 所界定的 20 世紀

that was defined by institutional trust

towards the 21st century

轉變為分配屬性信任 所推動的 21 世紀。

that will be fueled by distributed trust.

Trust is no longer top-down.

信任的流向不再是由上往下。

It's being unbundled and inverted.

它逐漸被鬆綁，流向也被倒轉過來。

It's no longer opaque and linear.

它不再是模糊或呈線性。

A new recipe for trust is emerging

構成信任的新方式逐漸形成，

that once again is distributed amongst people

其本質回歸到人際分配模式，

and is accountability-based.

以問責為基礎。

And this shift is only going to accelerate

隨着區塊鍊 這種支撐比特幣的分帳技術冒起，

with the emergence of the blockchain,

the innovative ledger technology underpinning Bitcoin.

轉變只會越來越快。

Now let's be honest,

老實說，理解區塊鏈如何運作

getting our heads around the way blockchain works

is mind-blowing.

可令人頭昏腦脹。

And one of the reasons why is it involves processing

其中一個原因是當中包含的步驟

some pretty complicated concepts

有很多非常複雜且名稱難懂的概念。

with terrible names.

I mean, cryptographic algorithms and hash functions,

我說的是加密演算法和雜湊函數，

and people called miners, who verify transactions --

以及驗證交易、被稱為礦工的人，

all that was created by this mysterious person

這一切都是由一位或多位

or persons called Satoshi Nakamoto.

稱作「中本聰」的神秘人物 所創造出來。

Now, that is a massive trust leap that hasn't happened yet.

這才是從未發生過的 超大型信任大躍進。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

But let's try to imagine this.

讓我們試著想像，

So "The Economist" eloquently described the blockchain

《經濟學人》意味深長地將區塊鍊技術

as the great chain of being sure about things.

形容為「確保萬物的巨大鎖鏈」。

The easiest way I can describe it is imagine the blocks as spreadsheets,

用最簡單的方式形容， 就是把區塊鏈想像成試算表，

and they are filled with assets.

每個格子填滿著資產。

So that could be a property title.

這些資產可以是財產契據。

It could be a stock trade.

可以是股票交易。

It could be a creative asset, such as the rights to a song.

可以是歌曲版權等創意資產。

Every time something moves

每次資產

從記錄的一處移至另一處時，

from one place on the register to somewhere else,

that asset transfer is time-stamped

資產移轉就會被標記時間， 在區塊鏈上被公開記錄下來。

and publicly recorded on the blockchain.

It's that simple. Right.

就是這麼簡單的事情。

So the real implication of the blockchain

所以區塊鏈真正的意義

is that it removes the need for any kind of third party,

就是移除對任何第三方的需求。

such as a lawyer,

例如律師和非政府授信的中介人，

or a trusted intermediary, or maybe not a government intermediary

to facilitate the exchange.

讓交易更加方便。

So if we go back to the trust stack,

讓我們回到信任層疊，

you still have to trust the idea,

你還是要信任這樣的想法， 你也要信任這樣的平台，

you have to trust the platform,

but you don't have to trust the other person

但你不需要以傳統的方式信任別人。

in the traditional sense.

The implications are huge.

這意義巨大，

In the same way the internet blew open the doors to an age of information

就像互聯網打開了 通往資訊共享世代的大門，

available to everyone,

the blockchain will revolutionize trust on a global scale.

區塊鍊將會以全球規模 徹底改變信任感。

Now, I've waited to the end intentionally to mention Uber,

現在我等到快要結束 才打算談到 Uber，

because I recognize that it is a contentious

因為我知道這是一個非常具爭議性 而且廣泛被過度使用的例子，

and widely overused example,

but in the context of a new era of trust, it's a great case study.

但當我們談論信任的新時代， 這就是很棒的個案。

Now, we will see cases of abuse of distributed trust.

我們會看到具分配屬性的信任 被濫用的個案。

We've already seen this, and it can go horribly wrong.

我們已見識過，而且可以相當離譜。

I am not surprised that we are seeing protests from taxi associations

我不驚訝於全球計程車協會抗議，

all around the world

trying to get governments to ban Uber based on claims that it is unsafe.

聲稱 Uber 不安全而要求政府取締它，

I happened to be in London the day that these protests took place,

在抗議發生的那天，我剛好在倫敦，

and I happened to notice a tweet

剛好注意到由英國商務大臣 夏國賢發出的一條推特。

from Matt Hancock, who is a British minister for business.

And he wrote,

他寫道：

"Does anyone have details of this #Uber app everyone's talking about?

「有沒有人知道大家在談論的 #Uber 應用程式詳細資訊？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

I'd never heard of it until today."

我到今天才知道耶。」

Now, the taxi associations,

現在計程車協會

they legitimized the first layer of the trust stack.

合理化信任層疊的第一層。

They legitimized the idea that they were trying to eliminate,

他們合理化自己試圖要消滅的想法，

and sign-ups increased by 850 percent in 24 hours.

Uber 的註冊人數 在 24 小時內增加了 8.5 倍。

Now, this is a really strong illustration

這強而有力地證明

of how once a trust shift has happened around a behavior or an entire sector,

當圍繞一種行為 或是整個行業的信任移轉時，

you cannot reverse the story.

情況就會無法逆轉。

Every day, five million people will take a trust leap

每天有五百萬人 進行信任大躍進搭乘 Uber。

and ride with Uber.

In China, on Didi, the ride-sharing platform,

在中國，「滴滴出行」共乘平台 每天就錄得 1,100 萬次共乘。

11 million rides taken every day.

That's 127 rides per second,

即是每秒 127 次共乘， 顯示這是跨文化的現象。

showing that this is a cross-cultural phenomenon.

And the fascinating thing is that both drivers and passengers report

最棒的是，司機和乘客都表示，

that seeing a name

看到名字，看到別人的照片和評價，

and seeing someone's photo and their rating

makes them feel safer,

讓他們覺得更加安心，

and as you may have experienced,

而大家可能也體驗過， 甚至比乘搭計程車時更有禮貌。

even behave a little more nicely in the taxi cab.

Uber and Didi are early but powerful examples

Uber 和滴滴出行 這些早期例子強而有力地展現，

of how technology is creating trust between people

科技如何以從來不可能的方式和規模

in ways and on a scale never possible before.

在人與人之間建立信任。

Today, many of us are comfortable getting into cars driven by strangers.

如今我們大部分人 對搭乘陌生人開的車感到自在。

We meet up with someone we swiped right to be matched with.

我們跟向右輕掃後配對的人見面。

We share our homes with people we do not know.

我們把自己的家分享給陌生人。

This is just the beginning,

這只是起步而已，

because the real disruption happening

因為正在發生的真正轉折 與科技無關。

isn't technological.

It's the trust shift it creates,

而是跟它造成的信任移轉有關。

and for my part, I want to help people understand this new era of trust

我就希望幫助人們 了解這新世代的信任感，

so that we can get it right

這樣我們才能把事情做的正確，

and we can embrace the opportunities to redesign systems

我們就能擁抱機遇，重新設計制度，

that are more transparent, inclusive and accountable.

使它們更具透明度、廣納性和問責性。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝大家。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）