Kevin Kelly tells technology's epic story

92,487 views ・ 2010-02-22

TED


請雙擊下方英文字幕播放視頻。

譯者: Bentham Chang 審譯者: Wang-Ju Tsai
我想談談我的一些研究
00:16
I want to talk about my investigations
0
16273
2538
00:18
into what technology means in our lives --
1
18835
4544
有關科技對我們生活的意義
00:23
not just our immediate life, but in the cosmic sense,
2
23403
3208
不光是狹義上我們的生活,而是廣義上的宇宙觀
00:26
in the kind of long history of the world
3
26635
3142
我們世界觀裡的時間
00:29
and our place in the world.
4
29801
2579
跟世界觀裡的空間
00:32
What is this stuff?
5
32404
1874
這是什麼呢?
00:34
What is the significance?
6
34302
1460
對我們重要嗎?
00:35
And so, I want to kind of go through my little story
7
35786
3908
我想先用一些小故事
來談我所發現的
00:39
of what I found out.
8
39718
1246
00:40
One of the first things I started to investigate
9
40988
2287
一開始引起我研究興趣的
是 "科技" 這一名稱的來源
00:43
was the history of the name of technology.
10
43299
2811
00:46
In the United States, there is a State of the Union address
11
46134
2954
美國從1790年以後依照慣例
每位總統會對國會發表施政報告
00:49
given by every president since 1790.
12
49112
2895
每一次演說
00:52
And each one of those is kind of summing up the most important things
13
52031
5038
都會總結當時對美國
最重要的事情
00:57
for the United States at that time.
14
57093
1706
00:58
If you search for the word "technology," it was not used until 1952.
15
58823
5286
如果你去追溯 "科技" 這個詞
直到1952年才開始出現
01:04
So, technology was sort of absent from everybody's thinking until 1952,
16
64133
4098
照這麼看來1952年以前
還沒有人想到科技, 而我剛好是出生在那一年
01:08
which happened to be the year of my birth.
17
68255
2051
但很明顯的, 科技
01:10
And obviously, technology had existed before then,
18
70330
2993
早在那以前就存在了, 只是我們沒有察覺而已。
01:13
but we weren't aware of it.
19
73347
1405
01:14
And so it was sort of an awakening of this force in our life.
20
74776
4598
那時就像是當頭棒喝
突然發覺我們生活中的這股力量。
01:19
I actually did research to find out the first use of the word "technology."
21
79398
4213
我實際去研究了
是誰第一個使用了 "科技" 這個詞
01:23
It was in 1829,
22
83635
1976
那是在 1829 年的時候
01:25
and it was invented by a guy who was starting a curriculum --
23
85635
2976
一個傢伙在編教程的時候發明的
01:28
a course, bringing together all the kinds of arts and crafts, and industry --
24
88635
4626
這個課程是要把不同種類的
藝術、手工藝與工業搞在一起。
01:33
and he called it "Technology."
25
93285
1961
他把這叫做科技
01:35
And that's the very first use of the word.
26
95270
2483
那就是這個名詞的起源
01:37
So what is this stuff
27
97777
2166
那這個
01:39
that we're all consumed by and bothered by?
28
99967
3800
我們每天消費的
為它煩心的東西是什麼?
01:45
Alan Kay calls it, "Technology is anything that was invented
29
105278
2922
艾倫 凱 說 "凡是我們出生後
才發明的東西, 都是科技"
01:48
after you were born."
30
108224
1229
01:49
(Laughter)
31
109477
1008
(笑聲)
01:50
Which is sort of the idea we normally have about what technology is:
32
110509
4435
這就是我們對科技的刻板印象
01:54
it's all that new stuff.
33
114968
1643
就是那些“新玩意”
01:56
It's not roads, or penicillin,
34
116635
2203
不是馬路或盤尼西林
01:58
or factory tires; it's the new stuff.
35
118862
3763
或量產的輪胎 要“新”玩意才算。
02:02
My friend Danny Hillis says kind of a similar one,
36
122649
2523
我的朋友 丹尼 西里斯 提出一個類似的說法
他說 "科技就是還不能實用的."
02:05
he says, "Technology is anything that doesn't work yet."
37
125196
2679
02:07
(Laughter)
38
127899
1015
(笑聲)
02:08
Which is, again, a sense that it's all new.
39
128938
2040
對啊, 意思就是全新的
但是我們知道科技不全是是新的
02:11
But we know that it's just not new.
40
131002
1708
02:12
It actually goes way back,
41
132734
1286
我建議大家 從時間軸上往前推
02:14
and what I want to suggest is, it goes a long way back.
42
134044
4101
推到很早很早以前。
02:18
So, another way to think about technology, what it means,
43
138169
2768
另一個思考科技意義的辦法是
02:20
is to imagine a world without technology.
44
140961
2024
去想像沒有科技的世界。
假設我們把今日世界的科技一一去掉
02:23
If we were to eliminate every single bit of technology in the world today --
45
143009
3661
真的完全去除乾淨
02:26
and I mean everything, from blades to scrapers to cloth --
46
146694
4917
從刀片 掃把 到衣服
02:31
we, as a species, would not live very long.
47
151635
2735
我們這個物種將無法存活太久。
02:34
We would die by the billions, and very quickly:
48
154394
2977
幾十億的人口將會快速的死去
02:37
the wolves would get us, we would be defenseless,
49
157395
3305
狼會吃掉亳無保護的我們
02:40
we would be unable to grow enough food or find enough food.
50
160724
3193
我們將無法栽種或找到足夠的食物
02:43
Even the hunter-gatherers used some elementary tools.
51
163941
3436
獵人們至少也用了一些工具吧。
02:47
So, they had minimal technology,
52
167401
2332
所以他們有了最起碼的科技
02:49
but they had some technology.
53
169757
1682
但他們的科技不止如此
02:51
And if we study those hunter-gatherer tribes
54
171463
3133
如果我們研究形成部落的這些獵人
02:54
and the Neanderthal, which are very similar to early man,
55
174620
3652
像是最早發現的 尼安德塔人
02:58
we find out a very curious thing about this world without technology,
56
178296
3287
在無科技世界裡我們找到令人好奇的東西
03:01
and this is a kind of a curve of their average age.
57
181607
2829
這是他們平均壽命的曲線
03:04
There are no Neanderthal fossils that are older than 40 years old
58
184460
4455
在尼安德塔人的骨骸中
沒有超過40歲的
03:08
that we've ever found,
59
188939
1611
這些獵人部落的年齡大部份
03:10
and the average age of most of these hunter-gatherer tribes is 20 to 30.
60
190574
4230
是在 20 到 30 之間
03:14
There are very few young infants, because they die -- high mortality rate --
61
194828
4901
小嬰孩是很罕見的
因為嬰兒死亡率很高。老人也不多見
03:19
and there's very few old people.
62
199753
1548
所以總體來說會像是舊金山附近的人口結構
03:21
So the profile is sort of for your average San Francisco neighborhood:
63
201325
3580
03:24
a lot of young people.
64
204929
1405
一大堆年青人
03:26
And if you go there, you say, "Hey, everybody's really healthy."
65
206358
3064
如果你去那裡你會說 "哇, 每個人都很健康"
那是因為他們都很年青啊
03:29
Well, that's because they're all young.
66
209446
1904
同樣的在原始人類的獵人部落裡
03:31
Same thing with the hunter-gatherer tribes and early man:
67
211374
2731
人活不過 30 歲
03:34
you didn't live beyond the age of 30.
68
214129
1795
03:35
So it was a world without grandparents.
69
215948
1977
所以那是沒有祖父母的世界。
03:37
And grandparents are very important,
70
217949
2033
祖父母是很重要的
因為他們是文化演進與資訊的轉化器
03:40
because they are the transmitter of cultural evolution and information.
71
220006
3639
03:43
Imagine a world where basically everybody was 20 to 30 years old.
72
223669
3136
想像一下每個人都只有20到30歲的世界
03:46
How much learning can you do?
73
226829
1644
他們能學習到怎樣的程度?
03:48
You can't do very much learning in your own life,
74
228497
2335
你在自己的生命中真的學不到很多
03:50
it's so short,
75
230856
1298
因為那太短暫了
03:52
and there's nobody to pass on what you do learn.
76
232178
2354
而且你所學的又傳不下去。
03:54
So that's one aspect.
77
234556
2947
這只是一個觀點
03:57
It was a very short life.
78
237527
1316
不只人生苦短 同時
03:58
But at the same time, anthropologists know
79
238867
2792
人類學家們知道
04:01
that most hunter-gatherer tribes of the world,
80
241683
2580
在原始獵人聚集部落的世界
04:04
with that very little technology,
81
244287
1662
用的科技不多, 他們並沒有花
04:05
actually did not spend a very long time gathering the food they needed:
82
245973
3486
很長的時間蒐集維生的食物
04:09
three to six hours a day.
83
249483
1583
一天大概 3 到 6 小時。
04:11
Some anthropologists call that the original affluent society,
84
251090
4021
有些人類學家稱之為原初豐裕社會
因為他們那時候已經有了 "半天班"
04:15
because they had bankers' hours, basically.
85
255135
2366
04:17
So it was possible to get enough food.
86
257525
2634
而且在當時是有可能得到足夠食物的。
04:20
But when the scarcity came,
87
260183
2501
不過當食物短缺時
04:22
when the highs and lows and the droughts came,
88
262708
2283
像是多雨或乾旱來臨時
人們還是會餓死。
04:25
then people went into starvation.
89
265015
2533
04:27
And that's why they didn't live very long.
90
267572
2048
這就是為什麼他們活不長。
04:29
So what technology brought,
91
269644
2415
所以科技帶來的小工具
像這裡這些石器工具
04:32
through the very simple tools like these stone tools here --
92
272083
3449
04:36
even something as small as this --
93
276683
1813
即使是這麼小的一個
04:38
the early bands of humans were actually able to eliminate to extinction
94
278520
5405
就可以讓原始人類有能力可以
在進化上超越並消滅
04:43
about 250 megafauna animals in North America
95
283949
5092
一萬年前在北美洲的
大約250種的巨型動物群。
04:49
when they first arrived 10,000 years ago.
96
289065
2189
04:51
So, long before the industrial age,
97
291278
2641
所以遠早於工業時代
04:53
we've been affecting the planet on a global scale
98
293943
2668
我們已經對這個星球有了全面性的影響
04:56
with just a small amount of technology.
99
296635
2131
那只是用了一點小科技。
04:58
The other thing that the early man invented was fire.
100
298790
3296
另一個原始人的發明是 火。
火最早是用來清除草地
05:02
And fire was used to clear out, and again,
101
302110
2125
而這影響到草原生態與整個大陸
05:04
affected the ecology of grass and whole continents,
102
304259
3648
05:07
and was used in cooking.
103
307931
2398
火並且用來烹煮食物
05:10
It enabled us to actually eat all kinds of things.
104
310353
2455
有了火我們可以無所不吃
05:12
It was, in a certain sense, in a McLuhan sense,
105
312832
2254
這就好像 麥克魯漢 所謂的
“體外的胃”
05:15
an external stomach,
106
315110
2108
05:17
in the sense that it was cooking food that we could not eat otherwise.
107
317242
3495
意思是沒煮過的我們也消化不了
05:20
And if we didn't have fire, we actually could not live.
108
320761
2744
如果沒有火的話我們很難活下去
05:23
Our bodies have adapted to these new diets.
109
323529
3142
我們的身體早已調適到這些新的飲食
05:26
Our bodies have changed in the last 10,000 years.
110
326695
2795
過去一萬年以來我們的身體已經改變。
05:29
So, with that little bit of technology,
111
329514
3056
看, 這小小的一點科技
05:32
humans went from a small band of 10,000 or so --
112
332594
2276
讓人類從約一萬人左右的一小群
05:34
the same number as Neanderthals everywhere --
113
334894
2149
約略是各地的原始人總數
然後隨著語言的發明
05:37
and we suddenly exploded.
114
337067
1238
05:38
With the invention of language around 50,000 years ago,
115
338329
2601
大約五萬年以前
05:40
the number of humans exploded,
116
340954
1493
人口突然暴增
05:42
and very quickly became the dominant species on the planet.
117
342471
3124
很快的人類成為稱霸地球的生物
05:45
And they migrated into the rest of the world
118
345619
2442
其擴展版圖的速度是每年兩公里
05:48
at two kilometers per year
119
348085
1440
05:49
until, within several tens of thousands of years,
120
349549
2977
直到最近幾萬年
05:52
we occupied every single watershed on the planet
121
352550
2275
人已經漫佈到全球各地
05:54
and became the most dominant species,
122
354849
1818
成為獨霸的生物種類
05:56
with a very small amount of technology.
123
356691
2363
這都是拜小小的科技所賜
甚至在八千到一萬年前
05:59
And even at that time, with the introduction of agriculture,
124
359078
3080
農業才剛發明的時候
06:02
8,000, 10,000 years ago,
125
362182
1710
06:03
we started to see climate change.
126
363916
1695
氣候變遷開始出現了。
06:05
So climate change is not a new thing; what's new is just the degree of it.
127
365635
3584
氣候變遷並不是新東西
不一樣的只是程度上的差別。
06:09
Even during the agricultural age, there was climate change.
128
369243
3075
在農業時期就有氣候變遷了。
06:12
So already, small amounts of technology were transforming the world.
129
372342
3736
同樣極少量的科技
也轉化了整個世界。
06:16
And what this means, and where I'm going,
130
376102
2661
我想要表達的重點是
06:18
is that technology has become the most powerful force in the world.
131
378787
3824
科技己經變成世界上最強大的力量。
06:22
All the things we see today that are changing our lives,
132
382635
2927
我們今天看到的所有東西
只要能改變我們生活方式的
06:25
we can always trace back
133
385586
1187
06:26
to the introduction of some new technology.
134
386797
2065
都可以回溯到某些科技的發明。
06:28
So it's a force,
135
388886
1305
這就是力量 一種從這個地球上
06:30
that is the most powerful force that has been unleashed on this planet,
136
390215
4071
曾爆發的最強大力量。
06:34
and in such a degree,
137
394310
1809
我認為在某種程度上
06:36
that I think it's become who we are.
138
396143
6221
這是因為我們的本質 "人性"
06:42
In fact, our humanity and everything that we think about ourselves,
139
402388
3255
包括我們認為有關自己的一切
06:45
is something we've invented.
140
405667
1468
實際上是我們發明的。
06:47
So we've invented ourselves.
141
407159
1407
我們創造了我們自己! 所有我們餋養
06:48
Of all the animals that we've domesticated,
142
408590
2118
的動物裡最重要的
06:50
the most important animal has been us.
143
410732
2115
就是我們 對吧?
06:54
So humanity is our greatest invention,
144
414093
3518
因此人性是我們最偉大的發明
06:57
but of course, we're not done yet.
145
417635
1976
當然這件事還沒完呢
06:59
We're still inventing,
146
419635
1162
科技讓我們還持續的發明著
07:00
and this is what technology is allowing us to do;
147
420821
2338
這是不斷的重新創造我們自己
07:03
it's continually to reinvent ourselves.
148
423183
2036
07:05
It's a very, very strong force.
149
425243
2423
是一股巨大無比的力量。
07:07
I call this entire thing -- us humans as our technology,
150
427690
3135
我把這一整個事情 包括人與科技
07:10
everything that we've made, gadgets in our lives --
151
430849
2762
所有我們創造的 生活中的小東西
07:13
we call that the technium.
152
433635
1263
統稱為科技育成 (Technium),也就是這世界。
07:14
That's this world.
153
434922
1160
我對科技的新定義是
07:16
My working definition of technology is:
154
436106
1905
任何人類所製造出的有用東西
07:18
anything useful that a human mind makes.
155
438035
2373
07:20
It's not just hammers and gadgets, like laptops.
156
440432
2658
不只是鐵鎚、筆電或酷炫的3C產品
還包括法律。 當然 "城市" 也讓
07:23
But it's also law.
157
443114
1421
07:24
And, of course, cities are ways to make things more useful to us.
158
444559
5143
很多東西變得有用。
07:29
While this is something that comes from our mind,
159
449726
2465
這些從我們的心念而來的
其根源卻同樣來自
07:32
it also has its roots deeply into the cosmos.
160
452215
4293
宇宙。
07:36
It goes back.
161
456532
1163
回到科技的最初起源
07:37
The origins and roots of technology go back to the Big Bang,
162
457719
2863
再回到大爆炸
07:40
in this way, in that they are part of this self-organizing thread
163
460606
4488
從這一路看 這些心念
是自我形成的次序
然後從大爆炸開始
07:45
that starts at the Big Bang and goes through galaxies and stars,
164
465118
4555
經過不同的星系與無數的星星
07:49
into life, into us.
165
469697
1558
來到我們的生命中。
07:51
And the three major phases of the early universe
166
471279
2628
在宇宙形成早期的三個主要階段
07:53
was energy, when the dominant force was energy;
167
473931
2222
一開始是能量 主導力量是 "能量"。
然後冷卻以後 主導力量變成 "物質"
07:56
then the dominant force, as it cooled, became matter;
168
476177
3040
再來 生命起源 在40億年前
07:59
and then, with the invention of life four billion years ago,
169
479241
3370
08:02
the dominant force in our neighborhood became information.
170
482635
2786
我們週遭的主導力量變成 "資訊"。
這就是生命。 它是資訊重組與
08:05
That's what life is:
171
485445
1184
08:06
an information process that was restructuring
172
486653
2160
建立新秩序的過程。
08:08
and making new order.
173
488837
1222
所以在愛因斯坦發現 質M 與 能E
08:10
So, energy and matter, Einstein showed were equivalent,
174
490083
3617
是相同的 而現在新的
08:13
and now new sciences of quantum computing show that entropy and information
175
493724
5620
量子計算機裡的不可控制能量(熵)
跟資訊 跟物質 跟能量
08:19
and matter and energy
176
499368
1450
08:20
are all interrelated.
177
500842
1164
所以這一長串的 都是互相關聯的。
08:22
So it's one long continuum.
178
502030
1537
08:24
You put energy into the right kind of system,
179
504464
3195
你把能量放入一個系統
08:27
and out comes wasted heat, entropy,
180
507683
3074
會產出無法控制隨機的熱(熵 entrory)
08:30
and extropy, which is order.
181
510781
2830
跟可以控制有用的部份(extropy)。
08:33
It's the increased order.
182
513635
1330
可掌控部份是有增加的。
08:34
Where does this order come from?
183
514989
1553
這部份是從何而來呢? 追根究底
08:36
Its roots go way back.
184
516566
1271
08:37
We actually don't know.
185
517861
1333
其實上我們不知道。
08:39
But we do know
186
519218
1212
但是我們很早就從宇宙得知
08:40
that the self-organization trend throughout the universe is long,
187
520454
4295
這自我組織的趨勢由來已久
08:44
and it began with things like galaxies;
188
524773
2223
從像星系這樣的東西開始
它們維持自己的秩序有數十億年之久
08:47
they maintained their order for billions of years.
189
527020
2494
08:49
Stars are basically nuclear fission machines
190
529538
3850
星球基本上就是原子能融合機器
08:53
that self-organize and self-sustain themselves for billions of years:
191
533412
3299
它可以自我組織支撐到數十億年。
08:56
order against the extropy of the world.
192
536735
2131
這種秩序可以對抗無用的浪費。
08:58
And flowers and plants are the same thing, extended,
193
538890
4910
而花草樹木也是同一件事的擴展
09:03
and technology is basically an extension of life.
194
543824
4747
科技基本上也是生命的延伸。
所以從這些東西上面我們發現一個趨勢:
09:09
One trend that we notice in all those things
195
549483
2978
09:12
is that the amount of energy per gram per second
196
552485
2572
每一公克 每秒鐘能流過
這裡的能量實際上是遞增的。
09:15
that flows through this
197
555081
1283
09:16
is actually increasing.
198
556388
1291
09:17
The amount of energy is increasing through this little sequence.
199
557703
4579
通過這個小小通道的能量是一直增加的。
09:22
And the amount of energy per gram per second that flows through life
200
562306
3977
而流過我們生命的能量以每克每秒算來
09:26
is actually greater than a star --
201
566307
1977
是比一顆星星還多的
09:28
because of the star's long lifespan,
202
568308
3303
因為星星的壽命很長使得
09:31
the energy density in life is actually higher than a star.
203
571635
3189
我們生命的能量密度高於星星。
09:34
And the energy density that we see in the greatest amount
204
574848
2859
而我們所能見到能量密度最高的
09:37
anywhere in the universe
205
577731
1206
實際上是在個人電腦裡的晶片。
09:38
is actually in a PC chip.
206
578961
1333
09:40
There is more energy flowing through, per gram per second,
207
580318
3150
它有非常高的能量流過
09:43
than anything that we have any other experience with.
208
583492
3118
超越一切我們所能見識到的。
09:46
And so, what I would suggest
209
586634
1629
所以我建議你如果你想看到
09:48
is that if you want to see where technology is going,
210
588287
2941
科技的未來何去何從
09:51
we continue that trajectory,
211
591252
1632
09:52
and we say, "Well, it's going to become more energy-dense,
212
592908
2853
往更高的能量密度走這是很篤定的
09:55
that's where it's going."
213
595785
1217
這是未來的趨勢。 我所做的是
09:57
And so what I've done is, I've taken the same kinds of things
214
597026
2968
我把這些同類的東西
用不同的觀點去看
10:00
and looked at other aspects of evolutionary life and say,
215
600018
3266
進化性生命的大致走向。
10:03
"What are the general trends in evolutionary life?"
216
603308
2606
進化性生命的
10:05
And there are things moving towards greater complexity,
217
605938
2722
大致趨勢是往
更複雜 更多元化
10:08
moving towards greater diversity, moving towards greater specialization,
218
608684
3927
更專業化 具洞察力
10:12
sentience, ubiquity, and most important, evolvability.
219
612635
4242
無所不及 與最重要的 適者生存律。
10:16
Those very same things are also present in technology.
220
616901
3523
這些生物上的特性也可以在科技中發現。
10:20
That's where technology is going.
221
620448
1849
這也是科技的走向。
10:22
In fact, technology is accelerating all the aspects of life.
222
622321
4443
事實上科技是在加速
生命中的各個面向。
10:27
And we can see that happening;
223
627635
1498
這些例子比比皆是。 正如生命的多樣性
10:29
just as there's diversity in life, there's more diversity in things we make.
224
629157
4151
我們製造出來的東西越來越多樣化了。
10:33
Things in life start off being general cells,
225
633332
2150
生命是由通用細胞開始
10:35
and they become specialized:
226
635506
1381
再形成特殊化的組織細胞
10:36
you have tissue cells, muscle, brain cells.
227
636911
2137
然後有了肌肉跟腦細胞。 同樣的事也發生在科技。
10:39
The same thing happens with, say, a hammer,
228
639072
2030
鐵鎚一開始也是通用的
10:41
which is general at first and becomes more specific.
229
641126
2485
然後變得更精緻。
10:43
So I would like to say that while there are six kingdoms of life,
230
643635
3096
所以我想說在生物分類學的六界裡
10:46
we can think of technology basically as a seventh kingdom of life.
231
646755
3581
我們可以加入科技
變成生命的第七界。
10:50
It's a branching off from the human form.
232
650360
2331
是從人類分出來的一支
10:52
But technology has its own agenda, like anything, like life itself.
233
652715
3896
但是科技有它自己的要面對的問題
就像其他的東西一樣。
10:56
For instance, right now, three-quarters of the energy that we use
234
656635
3142
比如說現在我們有四分之三的能源是用在
10:59
is actually used to feed the technium itself.
235
659801
2132
支撐科技本身。
11:01
In transportation, it's not to move us;
236
661957
1892
在運輸裡, 運送的不是我們
11:03
it's to move the stuff we make or buy.
237
663873
1869
而是我們製造跟買的東西。
11:05
I use the word "want." Technology wants.
238
665766
1977
我用"想要"這一詞。 科技也會想要!
11:07
This is a robot that wants to plug itself in to get more power.
239
667767
3002
這是一個機器人想自己插電。
11:10
Your cat wants more food.
240
670793
2579
你的貓也會想要更多的食物。
連沒有意識的細菌細胞
11:13
A bacterium, which has no consciousness at all,
241
673396
2563
11:15
wants to move towards light.
242
675983
1628
也"想要"移向有亮光的地方
11:17
It has an urge, and technology has an urge.
243
677635
2688
他們有一股主見。 科技也是。
11:20
At the same time, it wants to give us things,
244
680347
2144
在另一方面它也想給我們物質上的滿足
11:22
and what it gives us is basically progress.
245
682515
2554
基本上我們也得到進步。
11:25
You can take all kinds of curves, and they're all pointing up.
246
685093
3072
讓我們來看看各種的曲線
如果我們扣除成本
11:28
There's really no dispute about progress,
247
688189
2422
11:30
if we discount the cost of that.
248
690635
2976
關於進步是毫無疑問的。
11:33
And that's the thing that bothers most people,
249
693635
2191
困擾我們大多數人的是
11:35
is that progress is really real, but we wonder and question:
250
695850
3864
到底這些進步是不是真的
我們懷疑所付出的環境代價為何?
11:39
What are the environmental costs of it?
251
699738
1873
11:41
I did a survey of the number of species of artifacts in my house,
252
701635
3827
我查了一下我家裡所有家當的種類
11:45
and there's 6,000.
253
705486
1158
總共有六千種 有些人有到一萬種
11:46
Other people have come up with 10,000.
254
706668
2069
11:48
When King Henry of England died,
255
708761
2440
英國的享利國王去世的時候
11:51
he had 18,000 things in his house,
256
711225
2054
他家裡有一萬八千多件東西
11:53
but that was the entire wealth of England, so ...
257
713303
3477
但那是當時整個英國的財富。
11:56
(Laughter)
258
716804
1210
不過即使擁有了全英國的財富
11:58
And with that entire wealth of England,
259
718038
2506
12:00
King Henry could not buy any antibiotics,
260
720568
2926
享利國王買不到抗生素
12:03
he could not buy refrigeration,
261
723518
1550
也買不到電冰箱 他也沒法參加能遊千里的團。
12:05
he could not buy a trip of a thousand miles,
262
725092
2133
而這位印度的手拉車伕
12:07
whereas this rickshaw wallah in India could save up and buy antibiotics
263
727249
4464
他卻可以買到抗生素
12:11
and he could buy refrigeration.
264
731737
1743
家裡也有冰箱。
12:13
He could buy things that King Henry, in all his wealth, could never buy.
265
733504
3471
他可以買到用享利國王財富買不到的東西。
12:16
That's what progress is about.
266
736999
1667
這就是進步。
12:18
So, technology is selfish; technology is generous.
267
738690
2921
科技是自私的 科技也是慷慨的
12:21
That conflict, that tension, will be with us forever:
268
741635
3196
這個衝突會永遠跟著我們
12:24
sometimes it wants to do what it wants to do,
269
744855
2198
有時它會為所欲為
有時它會為我們服務。
12:27
and sometimes it's going to do things for us.
270
747077
2120
對新科技應有的看法我們還不很明白。
12:29
We have confusion about what we should think
271
749221
2067
12:31
about a new technology.
272
751312
1299
12:32
Right now the default position when a new technology comes along,
273
752635
3830
當一個新科技來臨時
目前我們的預設立場與原則
12:36
is people talk about the precautionary principle,
274
756489
2325
是要特別的小心謹慎。
12:38
which is very common in Europe,
275
758838
1886
在歐洲這很常見。
12:40
which says, basically, "Don't do anything.
276
760748
2047
基本上遇上新科技時 "什麼也別做"
12:42
When you meet a new technology, stop,
277
762819
2614
停下來
12:45
until it can be proven that it does no harm."
278
765457
2529
直到可以證明它是無害的。
我想這真的會阻礙進步。
12:48
I think that really leads nowhere.
279
768010
2245
12:50
But a better way is what I call the proactionary principle,
280
770279
3001
或許有一個更好的辦法
叫“積極行動原則”, 就是你主動參與發展
12:53
which is, you engage with technology.
281
773304
2406
12:55
You try it out.
282
775734
1378
你去試用看看。
12:57
You obviously do what the precautionary principle suggests,
283
777136
4216
在參與的過程中用小心謹慎的原則
13:01
you try to anticipate it,
284
781376
1245
和保守態度去預測可能的結果
13:02
but after anticipating it,
285
782645
1427
不時的去評估
13:04
you constantly asses it,
286
784096
1515
13:05
not just once, but eternally.
287
785635
1563
再三的檢視
13:07
And when it diverts from what you want,
288
787222
3177
當你對它出現異狀的時候
13:10
we prioritize risk, we evaluate not just the new stuff,
289
790423
3161
我們再加重風險的比重
並把舊的東西也加入一起評估。
13:13
but the old stuff.
290
793608
1159
13:14
We fix it; but most importantly,
291
794791
1870
我們去修正它 而最重要的是
13:16
we relocate it.
292
796685
1157
13:17
And what I mean by that is,
293
797866
1824
"再定位"的概念。我的意思是說
13:19
we find a new job for it.
294
799714
1708
去找到一個新的用途。
13:21
Nuclear energy, fission, is a really bad idea for bombs.
295
801446
4010
例如核能
用來做原子彈真是個壞主意
13:25
But it may be a pretty good idea relocated into sustainable nuclear energy
296
805480
5395
不過"重新定位"可能就變好了
轉去做自轉式核能動力
13:30
for electricity, instead of burning coal.
297
810899
2318
可以取代燒煤 成為新電力。
13:33
When we have a bad idea,
298
813241
1715
當壞點子出現的時候 我們的反應
13:34
the response to a bad idea
299
814980
1564
13:36
is not no ideas, it's not to stop thinking.
300
816568
3320
最好不要 不知所措 或是 停止思考。
13:39
The response to a bad idea --
301
819912
2153
反擊壞點子最好是
像對這個鎢絲燈泡
13:42
like, say, a tungsten lightbulb --
302
822089
2128
13:44
is a better idea.
303
824241
2239
是找到更好的點子, 對吧?
13:46
So, better ideas is really always the response
304
826973
3480
對我們不喜歡的科技
13:50
to technology we don't like;
305
830477
1365
想辦法去把它變好
13:51
it's basically better technology.
306
831866
2087
變成更好的科技。
13:54
And actually, in a certain sense, technology is a kind of a method
307
834459
3820
實際上從某個角度看 科技
是一種產生更好點子的方法
13:58
for generating better ideas,
308
838303
1555
13:59
if you can think about it that way.
309
839882
1729
如果你能這麼想的話
14:01
So, maybe spraying DDT on crops is a really bad idea.
310
841635
3095
你看 用飛機噴DDT殺蟲劑真是瘋了
14:04
But DDT sprayed on local homes --
311
844754
2857
但在住家附近噴
14:07
there's nothing better to eliminate malaria,
312
847635
2976
消滅瘧疾沒有比這更有效的辦法了
14:10
besides insect DDT-impregnated mosquito nets.
313
850635
3738
因為DDT殺蟲劑可以抑制蚊子繁殖
14:14
But that's a really good idea; that's a good job for technology.
314
854397
3331
這就讓科技適得其所。
14:17
So our job as humans is to parent our mind children,
315
857752
3859
因此身為人類的天職
就是去孕育新的概念
14:21
to find them good friends,
316
861635
1444
是為這些主意找到好朋友
14:23
to find them a good job.
317
863103
1392
以及好的用途。
14:24
And so, every technology is sort of a creative force
318
864519
2808
這麽一來 每種科技都是一股創新的力量
14:27
looking for the right job.
319
867351
2020
都在找適合的用途。
14:29
That's actually my son, right here.
320
869395
2091
這張相片裡頭 是我的兒子
14:31
(Laughter)
321
871510
1323
是真的! (笑聲)
14:32
There are no bad technologies,
322
872857
2492
沒有所謂的壞科技
14:35
just as there are no bad children.
323
875373
1696
就像沒有所謂的壞小孩一樣。
14:37
We don't say children are neutral; children are positive.
324
877093
2882
小孩無所謂好或壞
14:39
We just have to find them the right place.
325
879999
2327
最重要的是幫他們找到適合的地方。
14:42
And so, what technology gives us over the long term --
326
882350
3954
所以科技為我們帶來的
從盤古開天起
14:46
over this sort of extended evolution from the beginning of time,
327
886328
3641
經歷巨大的演進
14:49
through the invention of the plants and animals,
328
889993
3618
到動物植物的創造
14:53
and the evolution of life, the evolution of brains --
329
893635
2976
到生命的進化 腦的進化
14:56
what that is constantly giving us is increasing differences:
330
896635
3911
科技持續地為我們帶來的
是越來越多的不同和變化。
15:00
It's increasing diversity, it's increasing options,
331
900570
2455
越來越多樣化 越來越多的選項
越來越多的選擇 機會
15:03
it's increasing choices, opportunities, possibilities and freedoms.
332
903049
3978
可能性與自由。
這是科技一直帶給我們的。
15:07
That's what we get from technology all the time.
333
907051
2924
15:09
That's why people leave villages and go into cities --
334
909999
2816
這也是人們為何離開小村落
進入城市的理由。 因為人們總是
15:12
because they are always gravitating towards increased choices
335
912839
3649
往有選擇、 有不同可能性的地方走。
15:16
and possibilities.
336
916512
1237
15:17
And we are aware of the price;
337
917773
2629
這背後必須付出代價
15:20
we pay a price for that, but we're aware of it,
338
920426
2239
我們也清楚地知道我們付出了什麼代價
15:22
and generally, we will pay the price for increased freedoms,
339
922689
2955
我們願意為自由而付
為選擇 為機會而付出。
15:25
choices and opportunities.
340
925668
1388
15:27
Even technology wants clean water.
341
927565
2708
即使科技也想要乾淨的水。
15:30
Is technology diametrically opposed to nature?
342
930297
4181
問題是科技是否完全地違反
自然呢?
15:34
Because technology is an extension of life,
343
934502
2858
因為科技是生命的延伸
15:37
it's in parallel and aligned with the same things
344
937384
2843
它與生命想要的
是並行不悖的。
15:40
that life wants.
345
940251
1303
15:42
So that I think technology loves biology,
346
942134
2175
所以我認為科技愛生物學
15:44
if we allow it to.
347
944333
1551
如果我們允許它的話。
15:46
Great movement starting billions of years ago
348
946491
4120
數十億年前就開始的偉大變動
15:50
is moving through us and it continues to go,
349
950635
2304
正在通過我們 而且繼續向前。
15:52
and our choice, so to speak, in technology,
350
952963
3413
我們對科技的選擇
真的讓我們能搭上
15:56
is really to align ourselves with this force
351
956400
2071
這股遠比我們更偉大的力量
15:58
much greater than ourselves.
352
958495
1384
15:59
So, technology is more than just the stuff in your pocket;
353
959903
2808
所以科技不只是你口袋裡的小玩具
16:02
it's more than just gadgets,
354
962735
1391
不只是酷炫的新玩意 也不只是人類的發明而已
16:04
it's more than just things that people invent.
355
964150
2465
它實際上是源遠流長故事裡的一個部份
16:06
It's actually part of a very long story -- a great story --
356
966639
3387
一個始於數十億年前的偉大故事
16:10
that began billions of years ago.
357
970050
1633
16:11
It's moving through us, this self-organization,
358
971707
2307
這故事正通過我們
我們正在擴張跟加速這有秩序的自我組織。
16:14
and we're extending and accelerating it,
359
974038
1977
我們可以透過調整科技來成為其中的一部份
16:16
and we can be part of it by aligning the technology that we make with it.
360
976039
3764
我們創造並參與於其中。
16:19
And I really appreciate your attention today.
361
979827
2838
非常感謝大家今天的用心, 謝謝大家
16:22
Thank you.
362
982689
1159
16:23
(Applause)
363
983872
3586
(掌聲)
關於本網站

本網站將向您介紹對學習英語有用的 YouTube 視頻。 您將看到來自世界各地的一流教師教授的英語課程。 雙擊每個視頻頁面上顯示的英文字幕,從那裡播放視頻。 字幕與視頻播放同步滾動。 如果您有任何意見或要求,請使用此聯繫表與我們聯繫。

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7