SpaceX's plan to fly you across the globe in 30 minutes | Gwynne Shotwell

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Yanyan Hong

Chris Anderson: So two months ago, something crazy happened.

克里斯 · 安德森（克）：兩個月前， 發生了一件很瘋狂的事。

Can you talk us through this, because this caught so many people's attention?

你能否和我們談談這件事， 因為它引起了好多人的注意？

Gwynne Shotwell: I'll stay quiet for the beginning,

格威妮 · 紹特韋爾（格）： 我還是先保持安靜，

and then I'll start talking.

然後我再開始談。

(Video) Voices: Five, four, three, two, one.

（影片）聲音： 五、四 、三、二、一。

(Cheering)

（歡呼）

Woman: Liftoff. Go Falcon Heavy.

女子：發射。衝啊， 獵鷹重型運載火箭。

GS: So this was such an important moment for SpaceX.

格：對於 SpaceX， 這是個非常重要的時刻。

With the Falcon 9 and now the Falcon Heavy,

原是獵鷹九號， 現在是獵鷹重型運載火箭，

we can launch into orbit

有了它，我們能把任何以前

any payload that has previously been conceived or is conceived right now.

曾構想過或現在正在構想的 裝載量給發射到軌道上，

We've got a couple of launches of Falcon Heavy later this year,

今年下半年，我們要發射 獵鷹重型運載火箭好幾次，

so this had to go right.

所以這不能失誤。

It was the first time we flew it,

這是我們第一次讓它升空，

and the star of the show, of course,

當然，還有這場秀的明星，

brother and sister side boosters landing.

兩側推進器的著陸。

I was excited.

我很興奮。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Thanking my team.

感謝我的團隊。

By the way, there's maybe a thousand people

順道一提，在那裡，

我身邊可能站有一千人。

standing around me right there.

And Starman.

還有星男（太空駕駛員模型）。

Starman did not steal the show, though --

不過，星男並未搶走目光──

the boosters did.

是推進器搶走的。

CA: (Laughter)

克：（笑聲）

CA: There had to be some payload -- why not put a Tesla into space?

克：肯定是很了不起的裝載量── 為什麼不把一台特斯拉車送上太空？

GS: Exactly. It was perfect.

格：沒錯。它很完美。

CA: Gwynne, let's wind the clock back.

克：格威妮，咱們回顧一下。

I mean, how did you end up an engineer and President of SpaceX?

你是如何成為 SpaceX 的工程師和總裁？

Were you supernerdy as a girl?

你小時候是超級書呆子嗎？

GS: I don't think I was nerdy,

格：我不覺得我是書呆子，

but I was definitely doing the things that the girls weren't doing.

但我肯定做了其他女孩不做的事。

I asked my mom, who was an artist, when I was in third grade,

我媽媽是位藝術家， 我三年級時請問她

how a car worked,

汽車是怎麼運作的，

so she had no idea so she gave me a book, and I read it,

她不知道答案， 所以她給了我一本書，我讀了。

and sure enough, my first job out of my mechanical engineering degree

當然，在我拿到 機械工程學位之後的第一份工作，

was with Chrysler Motors in the automotive industry.

就是在汽車業的克萊斯勒汽車公司。

But I actually got into engineering not because of that book

但我會投入工程並不是因為那本書，

but because my mom took me to a Society of Women Engineers event,

而是因為我媽媽帶我去了 美國女工程師協會的一個活動，

and I fell in love with the mechanical engineer that spoke.

我愛上了在演說的那位機械工程師。

She was doing really critical work,

她在做非常有關鍵性的工作，

and I loved her suit.

特別是我愛她的制服。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And that's what a 15-year-old girl connects with.

那就是一個十五歲女孩所能想到的。

And I used to shy away from telling that story,

我以前會躲避，不願說那個故事，

but if that's what caused me to be an engineer --

但如果那就是讓我 成為工程師的原因──

hey, I think we should talk about that.

嘿，我想我應該要談談它。

CA: Sixteen years ago, you became employee number seven at SpaceX,

克：十六年前，你成為 SpaceX 的第七號員工，

and then over the next years,

在接下來幾年，

you somehow built a multi-billion-dollar relationship with NASA,

你和美國太空總署（NASA） 建起了數十億美元的關係，

despite the fact that SpaceX's first three launches blew up.

儘管 SpaceX 的 前三次發射都失敗了。

I mean, how on earth did you do that?

你到底是怎麼辦到的？

GS: So actually, selling rockets is all about relationships

格：其實，要賣火箭， 重點就在於關係，

and making a connection with these customers.

要和客戶建立連結。

When you don't have a rocket to sell,

當你沒有火箭可以賣的時候，

what's really important is selling your team,

很重要的就是，要賣你的團隊，

selling the business savvy of your CEO --

賣你的執行長的商業頭腦，

that's not really hard to sell these days --

現今這並不難賣──

and basically, making sure that any technical issue that they have

基本上，要確保他們 若有任何技術問題

or any concern, you can address right away.

或任何擔心的事，你都能立即處理。

So I think it was helpful for me to be an engineer.

所以我想，我的工程師身份 是有幫助的。

I think it was helpful to my role of running sales for Elon.

我想，為伊隆（特斯拉汽車執行長） 做銷售的角色也有幫助。

CA: And currently, a big focus of the company

克：目前，公司的一個主要焦點，

is, I guess, kind of a race with Boeing

據我猜測，是和波音競爭，

to be the first to provide the service to NASA

要搶先為美國太空總署提供

of actually putting humans into orbit.

真的將人類送入太空軌道中的服務。

Safety considerations obviously come to the fore, here.

在這裡，很顯然 安全考量是很重要的。

How are you sleeping?

你還能睡得好嗎？

GS: I actually sleep really well. I'm a good sleeper, that's my best thing.

格：我其實睡得非常好。 我很貪睡，那是我最擅長的。

But I think the days leading up to our flying crew

但我想，接下來的日子 對我們的飛行組員來說，

will probably be a little sleepless.

將會是有點難入睡的。

But really, fundamentally, safety comes in the design

但其實基本上，安全來自於設計，

of the system that you're going to fly people on,

讓人飛行時所使用之系統的設計，

and so we've been working for years,

我們已經投入數年的努力，

actually, almost a decade, on this technology.

事實上，已投入這項技術將近十年。

We're taking the Dragon cargo spaceship

我們用天龍號太空船（貨船），

and we're upgrading it to be able to carry crew.

我們將它升級，變成可以載人。

And as I said, we've been engineering in these safety systems

如我先前所言，我們 一直在打造這些安全系統，

for quite some time.

已經花了不少時間。

CA: So isn't it that there's one system that actually allows instant escape

克：是不是有個系統，

在發生問題的時候能幫助快速逃脫？

if there's a problem.

格：是的。它叫做發射逃脫系統。

GS: That's right. It's called the launch escape system.

克：我想我們有資料。 咱們來展示一下。

CA: I think we have that. Let's show that.

格：我們有段 2015 年 做測試的影片。

GS: We've got a video of a test that we ran in 2015.

So this simulated having a really bad day on the pad.

這是模擬在發射臺上 出問題的狀況。

Basically, you want the capsule to get out of Dodge.

基本上，你要讓太空艙閃躲。

You want it to get away from the rocket

你想要讓它遠離火箭，

that had a bad day right below it.

遠離在它下頭出了問題的火箭。

This is if there was an issue on the pad.

這是假設發射台出了問題。

We also will be doing another demonstration later this year

今年晚些時候我們 還會做另一項展示，

on if we have an issue with the rocket during flight.

展示當火箭在飛行時 出問題要怎麼辦。

CA: And those rockets have another potential function as well, eventually.

克：最終，那些火箭 也有另一個潛在功能。

GS: Yeah, so the launch escape system for Dragon is pretty unique.

格：是的，天龍號太空船的 發射逃脫系統相當獨特。

It's an integrated launch escape system.

它是個整合式發射逃脫系統。

It's basically a pusher,

基本上，它是推進器，

so the propellant system and the thrusters are integrated into the capsule,

推進燃料系統和火箭推進器 都被整合到太空艙上，

and so if it detects a rocket problem, it pushes the capsule away.

如果它偵測到火箭發生問題， 它就會把太空艙推射出去。

Capsule safety systems in the past have been like tractor pullers,

過去，太空艙安全系統一直 都像是拖拉牽引機一樣，

and the reason we didn't want to do that

我們不想要這麼做的原因，

is that puller needs to come off before you can safely reenter that capsule,

是因為要等拉具脫離之後， 你才能夠安全地重返太空艙，

so we wanted to eliminate, in design, that possibility of failure.

我們想要在設計上 就除去那種失敗的可能性。

CA: I mean, SpaceX has made the regular reusability of rockets

克：我的意思是，SpaceX 已經讓火箭能夠重複利用，

seem almost routine,

這似乎成了一種慣例，

which means you've done something

也就是說，你做了什麼，

that no national space program, for example,

是沒有其他，比如國家太空計畫，

has been able to achieve.

能夠達成的。

How was that possible?

那怎麼有可能？

GS: I think there's a couple of things --

格：我認為有幾件事──

there's a million things, actually --

其實有一百萬件事──

that have allowed SpaceX to be successful.

才能讓 SpaceX 成功。

The first is that we're kind of standing on the shoulders of giants. Right?

第一件事是，我們算是 站在巨人的肩膀上，對吧？

We got to look at the rocket industry and the developments to date,

我們能夠看到火箭產業 以及到目前為止的發展，

and we got to pick the best ideas,

我們能夠挑選最好的點子，

leverage them.

發揮它們。

We also didn't have technology that we had to include

我們也沒有需要將什麼技術納入

in our vehicle systems.

我們的飛行器系統。

So we didn't have to design around legacy components

我們不需要用到殘留的元件

that maybe weren't the most reliable or were particularly expensive,

或特別貴的元件來做設計，

so we really were able to let physics drive the design of these systems.

所以我們其實能讓物理 來引領這些系統的設計。

CA: I mean, there are other programs started from scratch.

克：我的意思是， 有些其他計畫是從零開始。

That last phrase you said there, you let physics drive the design,

你剛剛說的最後一句話， 讓物理引領設計，

what's an example of that?

可以舉個例子嗎？

GS: There's hundreds of examples, actually, of that,

格：其實有幾百個例子可以舉，

but basically, we got to construct the vehicle design

但基本上，我們的飛行器設計

from, really, a clean sheet of paper,

是從一張白紙開始，

and we got to make decisions that we wanted to make.

我們得要做出我們想要做的決定。

The tank architecture -- it's a common dome design.

燃料箱的結構── 它是常見的半球形設計。

Basically it's like two beer cans stacked together,

基本上，它像是 兩個啤酒灌疊在一起，

one full of liquid oxygen,

一個裝滿了液態氧，

one full of RP,

另一個裝滿了 RP（燃料），

and that basically saved weight.

基本上那就能減輕重量。

It allowed us to basically take more payload for the same design.

讓我們在設計不變的情況下 有更高的裝載量。

One of the other elements of the vehicle that we're flying right now

我們正在飛的太空船， 所用到的其他元素之一，

is we do use densified liquid oxygen and densified RP,

就是用更高濃度的液態氧和 RP，

so it's ultracold,

所以是超冷的，

and it allows you to pack more propellent into the vehicle.

讓你能在載具上放更多推進燃料。

It is done elsewhere,

其他地方也做，

probably not to the degree that we do it,

可能沒有我們做得好，

but it adds a lot of margin to the vehicle,

但它讓載具多了很多空間，

which obviously adds reliability.

顯然這就會增加可靠度。

CA: Gwynne, you became President of SpaceX 10 years ago, I think.

克：格威妮，我想，你是在 十年前當上 SpaceX 的總裁。

What's it been like to work so closely with Elon Musk?

和伊隆 · 馬斯克（Elon Musk）合作 是什麼樣的感覺？

GS: So I love working for Elon.

格：我很愛為伊隆工作。

I've been doing it for 16 years this year, actually.

到今年，我其實已經做了 16 年了。

I don't think I'm dumb enough to do something for 16 years

我想我應該沒有蠢到做不喜歡做的事

that I don't like doing.

還能一直做 16 年。

He's funny

他很有趣，

and fundamentally without him saying anything

基本上，他不需要說任何話，

he drives you to do your best work.

他就能驅使你去在工作上做到最好。

He doesn't have to say a word.

他不用說任何話。

You just want to do great work.

你就會想把工作做好。

CA: You might be the person best placed to answer this question,

克：有個問題一直困擾我，

你可能是最適合回答的人，

which has puzzled me,

which is to shed light on this strange unit of time

能不能解釋一下這個 很奇特的時間單位，

called "Elon time."

叫做「伊隆時間」。

For example, last year, I asked Elon, you know,

比如，去年我問伊隆，你知道的，

when Tesla would auto-drive across America,

問他何時特斯拉能在全美自動駕駛，

and he said by last December,

他說，去年 12 月，

which is definitely true, if you take Elon time into account.

若把伊隆時間納入考量的話， 這答案絕對是真的。

So what's the conversion ratio between Elon time and real time?

所以，伊隆時間和真實時間 之間的轉換率是什麼？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

GS: You put me in a unique position, Chris.

格：你讓我處在一個 很獨特的立場，克里斯。

Thanks for that.

謝謝你這麼做。

There's no question that Elon is very aggressive on his timelines,

毫無疑問伊隆的時間表非常急進，

but frankly, that drives us to do things better and faster.

但坦白說，那促使我們 把事情做得更好、更快。

I think all the time and all the money in the world

我想世界上所有的時間 和所有的金錢

does not yield the best solution,

也無法換來最好的解決方案，

and so putting that pressure on the team to move quickly is really important.

把那樣的壓力加在團隊身上， 讓步調加速，是相當重要的。

CA: It feels like you play kind of a key intermediary role here.

克：感覺好像你在這裡是 扮演一種關鍵的中間角色。

I mean, he sets these crazy goals that have their impact,

我的意思是，他設下瘋狂的目標， 這些目標都有它們的影響，

but, in other circumstances, might blow up a team

但在其他情況下， 這可能會搞死一個團隊，

or set impossible expectations.

或是訂下不可能的期望。

It feels like you've found a way of saying, "Yes, Elon,"

感覺起來，你好像找到一種 方式來說：「好的，伊隆。」

and then making it happen in a way that is acceptable

接著，用能被接受的方式來實現它，

both to him and to your company, to your employees.

他能接受，你的公司、 你的員工也能接受的方式。

GS: There is two really important realizations for that.

格：有兩項非常重要的領悟。

First of all, when Elon says something, you have to pause

首先，當伊隆說了某些話時， 你得要停頓一下，

and not immediately blurt out, "Well, that's impossible,"

不能馬上衝口說出：「那不可能。」

or, "There's no way we're going to do that. I don't know how."

或「我們不可能做到。 我不知道怎麼做。」

So you zip it, and you think about it,

你閉上嘴巴，你開始思考它，

and you find ways to get that done.

然後你想辦法把它做到。

And the other thing I realized,

我還領悟到另一件事，

and it made my job satisfaction substantially harder.

它讓我對得到成就感變更困難。

So I always felt like my job was to take these ideas

我總是覺得我的工作是要把這些點子

and kind of turn them into company goals, make them achievable,

轉換成公司的目標， 讓它們變成是可達成的，

and kind of roll the company over from this steep slope, get it comfortable.

有點像是把在陡坡上的公司 翻個身，讓它舒服一點。

And I noticed every time I felt like we were there,

我注意到，每次 當我覺得我們做到了，

we were rolling over, people were getting comfortable,

我們在翻身，大家正要得到舒緩時，

Elon would throw something out there,

伊隆就會丟出些什麼來，

and all of a sudden, we're not comfortable

突然間，我們就不舒服了，

and we're climbing that steep slope again.

我們又在爬那陡坡了。

But then once I realized that that's his job,

但一旦我意識到，那就是他的工作，

and my job is to get the company close to comfortable

而我的工作就是 讓公司盡量接近舒服，

so he can push again and put us back on that slope,

這樣他就能再次施壓， 把我們推回坡上，

then I started liking my job a lot more,

我就開始更喜歡我的工作了，

instead of always being frustrated.

而不是總覺得很挫折。

CA: So if I estimated that the conversation ratio

克：所以……如果我估計那轉換率，

for Elon time to your time is about 2x,

從伊隆時間轉換到 你的時間，約是 2x，

am I a long way out there?

我有差得太遠嗎？

GS: That's not terrible, and you said it, I didn't.

格：那不算糟， 而且是你說的，不是我。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

CA: You know, looking ahead,

克：你知道的，向前看，

one huge initiative

一個很大的計畫，

SpaceX is believed to be, rumored to be working on,

謠言相信 SpaceX 正在進行

is a massive network of literally thousands of low earth orbit satellites

一個大型網路，連結 數以千計的低地面軌道衛星，

to provide high-bandwidth, low-cost internet connection

來提供高頻寬低成本的網路連線，

to every square foot of planet earth.

提供到地球上的每一個角落。

Is there anything you can tell us about this?

你能跟我們談談它嗎？

GS: We actually don't chat very much about this particular project,

格：我們其實不太聊這個計畫，

not because we're hiding anything,

不是因為我們要隱藏什麼，

but this is probably one of the most challenging

也許這不是最有挑戰性的計畫，

if not the most challenging project we've undertaken.

但至少是我們做過 最有挑戰性的計畫之一。

No one has been successful

還沒有人成功過，

deploying a huge constellation for internet broadband,

部署一個系統來做網路寬頻用，

or basically for satellite internet,

或基本上做衛星網路用，

and I don't think physics is the difficulty here.

我認為這裡的困難之處不在物理。

I think we can come up with the right technology solution,

我認為我們能想出 正確的技術解決方案，

but we need to make a business out of it,

但我們得要先把它變成生意，

and it'll cost the company about 10 billion dollars or more

公司要花上一百億美元以上

to deploy this system.

來部署這個系統。

And so we're marching steadily along

所以，我們穩穩地向前走，

but we're certainly not claiming victory yet.

但我們肯定還沒有宣佈勝利。

CA: I mean, the impact of that, obviously, if that happened to the world,

克：我是指，如果它真的 在這個世界上實現了，

of connectivity everywhere, would be pretty radical,

無所不在的連結所帶來的 衝擊會是相當根本的，

and perhaps mainly for good --

也許主要都是好的──

I mean, it changes a lot if suddenly everyone can connect cheaply.

我是指，如果突然大家都有 便宜的連線，會帶來很大的改變。

GS: Yeah, there's no question it'll change the world.

格：是的，毫無疑問， 它會改變世界。

CA: How much of a worry is it,

克：擔心的程度有多高？

and how much of a drag on the planning is it,

計畫上有沒有什麽扯後腿的東西？

are concerns just about space junk?

需要擔心的只有太空垃圾嗎？

People worry a lot about this.

大家挺擔心這一點的。

This would a huge increase in the total number of satellites in orbit.

在軌道上的衛星總數會大大增加。

Is that a concern?

需要操心這點嗎？

GS: So space debris is a concern, there's no question --

格：太空殘骸是一個考量， 這點毫無疑問。

not because it's so likely to happen,

並不是因為它可能會發生，

but the consequences of it happening are pretty devastating.

而是如果發生的話， 後果十分有破壞性。

You could basically spew a bunch of particles in orbit

可能會在軌道上噴放出一堆碎片，

that could take out that orbit from being useful for decades or longer.

會讓那軌道至少十年不能用。

So as a matter of fact,

所以，事實上，

we are required to bring down our second stage after every mission

在每一次任務之後， 我們都必須把第二節帶下來，

so it doesn't end up being a rocket carcass orbiting earth.

最後才不會變成火箭屍體 繞著地球轉。

So you really need to be a good steward of that.

我們真的得要做好那方面的管理。

CA: So despite the remarkable success there

克：儘管獵鷹重型運載火箭

of that Falcon Heavy rocket,

有很了不起的成功，

you're actually not focusing on that as your future development plan.

你們並沒有把它當作是 未來發展計畫的焦點。

You're doubling down to a much bigger rocket

你們加倍投入在一台更大的火箭上，

called the BFR,

叫做 BFR，

which stands for ...

這個縮寫代表的是……

GS: It's the Big Falcon Rocket. CA: The Big Falcon Rocket, that's right.

格：大型獵鷹火箭。 克：大型獵鷹火箭，沒錯。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

What's the business logic of doing this

這麼做的商業邏輯是什麼？

when you invested all that in that incredible technology,

當你們已經投資了那麼多 在那項了不起的技術上，

and now you're just going to something much bigger. Why?

現在，你們就只打算 做個更大的東西。為什麼？

GS: Actually, we've learned some lessons

格：其實我們學了一些教訓，

over the duration where we've been developing these launch systems.

在我們開發這些 發射系統的時候學到的。

What we want to do is not introduce a new product before we've been able

當我們還無法說服客戶 他們應該要採用這新產品之前，

to convince the customers that this is the product that they should move to,

我們不會想要推出它，

so we're working on the Big Falcon Rocket now,

所以我們現在正努力投入 BFR，

but we're going to continue flying Falcon 9s and Falcon Heavies

但我們也會持續飛獵鷹九號 和獵鷹重型運載火箭，

until there is absolute widespread acceptance of BFR.

直到確定 BFR 能被廣為接受。

But we are working on it right now,

但我們現在正在努力，

we're just not going to cancel Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy

只是我們不會取消飛獵鷹九號 和獵鷹重型運載火箭，

and just put in place BFR.

而單單採用 BFR。

CA: The logic is that BFR is what you need to take humanity to Mars?

克：邏輯是，如果你們要把人 送上火星，需要的是 BFR？

GS: That's correct.

格：沒錯。

CA: But somehow, you've also found other business ideas for this.

克：但對此，你們也 找到了其他的商業點子。

GS: Yes. BFR can take the satellites that we're currently taking to orbit

格：是的。BFR 能把 我們目前帶到軌道上的衛星

to many orbits.

帶到許多軌道上。

It allows for even a new class of satellites to be delivered to orbit.

它甚至能帶一種 新類型的衛星到軌道上。

Basically, the width, the diameter of the fairing is eight meters,

基本上，整流罩的寬度、 直徑是八公尺，

so you can think about what giant telescopes

所以，你可以想想， 在那整流罩裡，

you can put in that fairing, in that cargo bay,

在那貨倉中，可以放 多巨大的望遠鏡，

and see really incredible things

能看到多了不起的東西，

and discover incredible things in space.

在太空中發掘了不起的東西。

But then there are some residual capabilities

但我們從 BFR

that we have out of BFR as well.

也得到一些剩餘能力。

CA: A residual capability? GS: It's a residual capability.

克：剩餘能力？ 格：它是種剩餘能力。

CA: Is that what you call this? Talk about what the heck this is.

克：你是這麼稱呼它的？ 談談它到底是什麼。

Oh wait a sec --

喔，等等──

GS: That's Falcon Heavy.

格：那是獵鷹重型運載火箭。 順道一提，那是值得點出的。

That's worth pointing out, by the way.

What a beautiful rocket,

很漂亮的火箭，

and that hangar could just fit the Statue of Liberty in it,

而那機棚可以容納得下自由女神像，

so you get a sense of size of that Falcon Heavy Rocket.

這樣你就對獵鷹重型 運載火箭的大小有概念了。

CA: And the fact that there are 27 engines there.

克：那裡有 27 具引擎。

That's part of the design principle

那是設計原則的一部分，

that you, rather than just inventing ever bigger rockets,

你不是去發明更大的火箭，

you team them up.

你讓它們協作。

GS: It's exactly this residual capability.

格：那就是剩餘能力。

We developed the Merlin engine for the Falcon 1 launch vehicle.

我們為獵鷹一號發射載具 開發了梅林引擎。

We could have tossed that engine

我們本來可以把那引擎丟掉，

and built an entirely new engine for the Falcon 9.

打造一具全新的引擎給獵鷹九號。

It would have been called something different,

它就會有個不同的名字，

because Falcon 9 is nine Merlin engines,

因為獵鷹九號就是九具梅林引擎，

but instead of spending a billion dollars on a brand new engine,

但我們沒有花十億美元 來打造全新引擎，

we put nine of them together on the back end of Falcon 9.

我們把九具舊引擎 裝在獵鷹九號的後端。

Residual capability: glue three Falcon 9s together

剩餘能力：把三台 獵鷹九號黏在一起，

and you have the largest operational rocket flying.

你就得到了世界上最大的 能運作飛行的火箭。

And so it was expensive to do,

這麼做是很昂貴，

but it was a much more efficient path than starting from scratch.

但比起從零開始， 這種做法有效率得多。

CA: And the BFR is the equivalent of how much bigger than that,

克：那麼 BFR 比那還要大多少？

in terms of its power?

就動力上來說？

GS: BFR is about, I believe, two and half times the size of this.

格：我認為，BFR 是它的 2.5 倍。

CA: Right, and so that allows you --

克：好。所以那就讓你能──

I mean, I still don't really believe this video that we're about to play here.

我是指，我仍然不敢置信 我們接下來要放的這支影片。

What on earth is this?

這到底是什麼？

GS: So it currently is on earth,

格：它目前還在地球上，

but this is basically space travel for earthlings.

但基本上，這是 地球人的太空飛船旅行。

I can't wait for this residual capability.

我等不及這項剩餘能力了。

Basically, what we're going to do is we're going to fly BFR like an aircraft

基本上，我們打算要把 BFR 當成飛機來飛，

and do point-to-point travel on earth,

在地球上做點到點的旅行，

so you can take off from New York City or Vancouver

你可以從紐約市或溫哥華起飛，

and fly halfway across the globe.

飛到地球的另一端。

You'll be on the BFR for roughly half an hour or 40 minutes,

你待在 BFR 上的時間 大約是30~40 分鐘，

and the longest part -- yeah, it's so awesome.

而最長的部分──是啊，很棒。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

The longest part of that flight is actually the boat out and back.

那段飛行最長的部分， 其實是進出搭小船的時間。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

CA: I mean. Gwynne, come on, this is awesome, but it's crazy, right?

克：我是指，格威妮，拜託， 這很棒，但這很瘋狂，對吧？

This is never going to actually happen.

這永遠不會真的發生。

GS: Oh no, it's definitely going to happen.

格：喔，不，它絕對會發生。

This is definitely going to happen.

這絕對會發生。

CA: How?

克：如何做？

(Applause)

（掌聲）

So first of all, countries are going to accept this incoming missile --

首先，各國家要能接受 這即將到來的飛彈──

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

GS: Chris, so can you imagine us trying to convince a federal range,

格：克里斯，你能否想像 我們試圖說服一個聯邦試射場，

Air Force bases to take the incomers?

空軍基地，願意接收來者？

Because we're doing it now, regularly, right?

因為我們現在就經常在做，對吧？

We're bringing the first stages back,

我們把第一節帶回來，

and we're landing them on federal property on an Air Force base.

我們讓它們降著在 空軍基地的聯邦地產上。

So I think doing it, I don't know,

所以我在想，在城市外圍，

10 kilometers out from a city, maybe it's only five kilometers out from a city.

我不知道，也許十公里或 五公里的地方來做這件事。

克：有多少乘客有可能可以負擔得起

CA: So how many passengers can possibly afford the fortune

搭太空船飛行？

of flying by space?

GS: So the first BFR is going to have roughly a hundred passengers.

格：第一台 BFR 將會有 大約一百名乘客。

And let's talk a little bit about the business.

讓我們談談生意的部分。

Everyone thinks rockets are really expensive,

大家都認為火箭非常昂貴，

and to a large degree they are,

的確可以說是如此，

and how could we possibly compete with airline tickets here?

我們怎麼可能和 航空公司的機票競爭？

But if you think about it, if I can do this trip

但試想一下，若我做這趟旅程

in half an hour to an hour,

只要半小時到一小時，

I can do dozens of these a day, right?

我一天就能飛好多趟，對吧？

And yet, a long-haul aircraft can only make one of those flights a day.

然而，長途飛機一天只能 飛這些航程的其中一趟。

So even if my rocket was slightly more expensive

所以，即使我的火箭稍微貴一點，

and the fuel is a little bit more expensive,

且燃料也稍微貴一點，

I can run 10x at least what they're running in a day,

我一天能運行的航程數 至少是他們的 10 倍，

and really make the revenue that I need to out of that system.

就能從那系統賺到足夠的利潤。

CA: So you really believe this is going to be deployed at some point

克：所以，你真心相信 在驚人未來的某個時點，

這方案會被實行。何時？

in our amazing future. When?

GS: Within a decade, for sure.

格：十年內，肯定的。

CA: And this is Gwynne time or Elon time?

克：這是格威妮時間還是伊隆時間？

GS: That's Gwynne time. I'm sure Elon will want us to go faster.

格：格威妮時間。我相信 伊隆會要我們更快完成。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

CA: OK, that's certainly amazing.

克：好，那的確是很了不起。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

GS: I'm personally invested in this one, because I travel a lot

格：我個人有投資這一項計畫， 因為我很常旅行，

and I do not love to travel,

而我不愛旅行，

and I would love to get to see my customers in Riyadh,

我會很樂意去見我在利雅德的客戶

leave in the morning and be back in time to make dinner.

早上出門，晚上就能回家做晚餐。

CA: So we're going to test this out.

克：所以我們要充分測試它。

So within 10 years, an economy price ticket,

所以，在十年內，會有經濟艙價格，

or, like, a couple thousand dollars per person to fly New York to Shanghai.

或約每人幾千塊美元的票， 從紐約飛到上海。

GS: Yeah, I think it'll be between economy and business,

格：是的，我想票價 會在經濟艙和商務艙之間，

but you do it in an hour.

但航程只要一小時。

CA: Yeah, well, OK, that is definitely something.

克：是啊，好， 那肯定是值得重視的。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And meanwhile, the other use of BFR is being developed

同時，也有在發展 BFR 的另一種用途，

to go a little bit further than Shanghai.

到比上海更遠一點點的地方。

Talk about this.

談談這點吧。

You guys have actually developed quite a detailed, sort of, picture

你們已經發展出十分詳細的想像，

of how humans might fly to Mars,

想像出人類要如何飛到火星，

and what that would look like.

以及那會是什麼樣子。

GS: Yeah. So we've got a video, this is a cropped video

格：是的。我們有支影片，它是我們

from others we've shown, and then there's a couple of new bits to it.

已經看過的影片剪輯起來， 再加上一些新東西。

But basically, you're going to lift off from a pad,

基本上，你會從發射台起飛，

you've got a booster as well as the BFS, the Big Falcon Spaceship.

你會有推進器以及 BFS， 即大型獵鷹太空船。

It's going to take off.

它會起飛。

The booster is going to drop the spaceship off in orbit,

推進器會把太空船丟在軌道上，

low earth orbit,

低地面軌道，

and then return just like we're returning boosters right now.

它會返回，就像我們現在 讓推進器返回地球一樣。

So it sounds incredible, but we're working on the pieces,

聽起來很不可思議， 但我們在努力做每一部分，

你能看到我們完成這些部分。

and you can see us achieve these pieces.

So booster comes back.

推進器回來了。

The new thing here

這裡有個新發明，

is that we're going to actually land on the pad that we launched from.

那就是，我們要讓它降落在 它起飛的那個發射台上。

Currently, we land on a separate pad, or we land out on a boat.

目前，我們是降落在 不同的發射台或是船上。

Fast, quick connect.

快速，馬上連結。

You take a cargo ship full of fuel,

你可以找一台裝滿燃料的貨船，

or a fuel depot,

或是一個燃料倉庫，

put it on that booster, get that in orbit,

把它放在推進器上，讓它進入軌道，

do a docking maneuver, refuel the spaceship,

想個方式來做對接， 就能為太空船補給燃料，

and head on to your destination,

然後前往你的目的地，

and this one is Mars.

這台的目的地是火星。

CA: So, like, a hundred people go to Mars at one time,

克：所以就像是， 一次一百個人上火星，

taking, what, six months? Two months?

要花多久？六個月？兩個月？

GS: It ends up depending on how big the rocket is.

格：那最終還是要看火箭有多大。

I think this first version, and we'll continue to make

我想如果用第一版，我們會持續

even bigger BFRs,

製造更大的 BFR，

I think it's a three-month trip.

第一版到火星大概要三個月。

Right now, the average is six to eight,

目前，平均值是六到八個月，

but we're going to try to do it faster.

但我們在試著讓它更快一點。

CA: When do you believe SpaceX will land the first human on Mars?

克：你認為 SpaceX 何時 會讓第一個人登上火星？

GS: It's a very similar time frame from the point-to-point.

格：和點到點計畫的 時間範圍差不多。

It's the same capability.

用的是同樣的能力。

It will be within a decade -- not this decade.

會在十年之內──不是這十年。

CA: In real time, again, within a decade.

克：真實時間，在十年內。

Well, that would also be amazing.

嗯，那也是很了不起的。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Why, though? Seriously, why?

不過，為什麼？認真的，為什麼？

I mean, you've got a company where this is the official stated mission.

我是指，你有間公司， 而這是官方聲明的任務。

Has everyone actually bought into that mission,

對這個任務，大家真的都買帳嗎？

given that, I mean, there's a lot of people around

我的意思是，畢竟身邊有很多人

who think, come on, you've got so much talent,

會認為，拜託，你這麼有才華，

so much technology capability.

技術能力又如此強大。

There are so many things on earth that need urgent attention.

地球上有好多事物迫切需要被關注。

Why would you have this escape trip off to another planet?

為什麼你要做這種 逃向另一個星球的旅行？

(Applause)

（掌聲）

GS: So I am glad you asked that,

格：我很高興你問了，

but I think we need to expand our minds a little bit.

但我想我們得再把心智擴展一些。

There are plenty of things to do on earth,

地球上有很多事情要做，

but there are lots of companies working on that.

但有許多公司投入在那些事情上。

I think we're working on one of the most important things we possibly can,

我想，我們是致力於我們 能做到最重要的事情之一，

and that's to find another place for humans to live and survive and thrive.

也就是找到另一個地方 給人類居住、生存，和茁壯。

If something happened on earth,

如果地球發生了什麼事，

you need humans living somewhere else.

你會需要讓人類住在其他地方。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

It's the fundamental risk reduction for the human species.

這是為人類降低根本性的風險。

And this does not subvert

這並不會顛覆

making our planet here better and doing a better job taking care of it,

讓地球更好，把地球照顧得更好，

but I think you need multiple paths to survival,

但我認為，你要有多種生存途徑，

and this is one of them.

這就是其中一條途徑。

And let's not talk about the downer piece,

我們不要談掃興的部分，

like, you go to Mars to make sure all earthlings don't die.

比如，你到火星是要 確保人類不會滅絕。

That's terrible, actually, that's a terrible reason to go do it.

那很糟糕，以這個理由 來做這件事，是很糟糕的。

Fundamentally, it's another place to explore,

基本上，就是去探索另一個地方，

and that's what makes humans different from animals,

那就是人類和動物的差別，

it's our sense of exploration and sense of wonderment

我們有探索感和驚奇感，

and learning something new.

會去學習新事物。

And then I also have to say,

我也得要說，

this is the first step in us moving to other solar systems

這只是我們的第一步， 朝其他太陽系邁進，

and potentially other galaxies,

甚至其他銀河系邁進，

and I think this is the only time I ever out-vision Elon,

我想只有這麼一次， 我的遠景比伊隆還遠，

because I want to meet other people in other solar systems.

因為我想要見見 其他太陽系的其他人。

Mars is fine, but it is a fixer-upper planet.

火星很好，但它需要整修才能住人。

There's work to do there to make it habitable.

還要花些功夫才能讓它適合居住。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

I want to find people, or whatever they call themselves,

我想要找到其他太陽系中的「人」，

in another solar system.

或看他們如何自稱。

CA: That is a big vision.

克：那是好大的遠景。

Gwynne Shotwell, thank you.

格威妮紹特韋爾，謝謝你。

You have one of the most amazing jobs on the planet.

你有地球上最了不起的工作之一。

GS: Thank you very much. Thanks, Chris.

格：非常謝謝你。謝謝，克里斯。