Mohamed Hijri: A simple solution to the coming phosphorus crisis

64,219 views ・ 2013-10-29

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00:00
Translator: Jane Roffe Reviewer: Els De Keyser
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譯者: Peggy Tsai 審譯者: Bighead Ge
00:13
I'm going to start by asking you a question:
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我想以問大家一個問題為開場
00:15
Is anyone familiar with the blue algae problem?
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在座各位有人熟悉藍藻問題嗎?
00:19
Okay, so most of you are.
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好的,所以大部份的人都熟悉
00:21
I think we can all agree it's a serious issue.
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我想我們都同意這是個嚴重的問題
00:24
Nobody wants to drink blue algae-contaminated water,
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沒有人想飲用受藍藻汙染的水
00:28
or swim in a blue algae-infested lake.
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也沒人想在被藍藻侵佔的湖裡游泳
00:33
Right?
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對吧?
00:34
I hope you won't be disappointed,
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我希望不要讓大家感到失望
00:36
but today, I won't be talking about blue algae.
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但今天的演講中,我並不會談到藍藻問題
00:39
Instead, I'll be talking about the main cause
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我要談的是這個問題的根源
00:43
at the root of this issue,
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造成藍藻問題的主要原因
00:46
which I will be referring to as the phosphorus crisis.
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亦即磷帶來的危機
00:50
Why have I chosen to talk to you about the phosphorus crisis today?
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為什麼我選擇磷危機 做為今天的演講議題呢?
00:54
For the simple reason that nobody else is talking about it.
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最直接的原因是,因為沒有人談論它
00:57
And by the end of my presentation, I hope that the general public
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在這場演講結束後,我希望社會大眾
01:01
will be more aware of this crisis and this issue.
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能對磷危機和這項議題 有更多的認識和警覺
01:06
Now, the problem is that if I ask,
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現在我們要討論的問題是,如果我這樣問:
01:09
why do we find ourselves in this situation with blue algae?
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為什麼我們會陷入藍藻問題中?
01:12
The answer is that it comes from how we farm.
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我會得到這樣的答案: 是我們的農業耕作方式造成的
01:16
We use fertilizers in our farming, chemical fertilizers.
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因為我們在耕作時使用肥料,化學肥料
01:20
Why do we use chemical fertilizers in agriculture?
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那麼為什麼我們要在耕作時使用化學肥料?
01:23
Basically, to help plants grow and to produce a better yield.
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最基本的原因,幫助作物生長,增加收成
01:28
The issue is that this is set to engender
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而問題點在於這樣的過程卻產生了
01:30
an environmental problem that is without precedent.
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史無前例的環境問題
01:35
Before going further, let me give you a crash course in plant biology.
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在進一步探討之前, 讓我簡短介紹一下作物生物學的基本知識
01:39
So, what does a plant need in order to grow?
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作物需要什麼來成長呢?
01:41
A plant, quite simply, needs light, it needs CO2,
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所有的植物,簡單直接的回答, 需要光和二氧化碳來生長
01:46
but even more importantly, it needs nutrients,
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但更重要的是,植物還需要養分
01:49
which it draws from the soil.
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而這些養分它們從土壤吸收獲得
01:53
Several of these nutrients are essential chemical elements:
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這些生長所需的養分中, 許多是重要的化學元素
01:56
phosphorus, nitrogen and calcium.
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比如磷,氮和鈣
01:59
So, the plant’s roots will extract these resources.
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植物的根會從土壤中吸取這些化學元素
02:04
Today I'll be focusing on a major problem that is linked to phosphorus.
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今天我要談的是當中最重要的問題,磷的問題
02:08
Why phosphorus in particular?
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為什麼是磷呢?
02:10
Because it is the most problematic chemical element.
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因為它是最容易造成問題的化學元素
02:13
By the end of my presentation, you will have seen
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這場演講結束後,你會了解到
02:16
what these problems are, and where we are today.
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這些問題是什麼, 和我們今天面臨什麼樣的狀況
02:20
Phosphorus is a chemical element
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磷是我們生活中不可或缺的
02:23
that is essential to life. This is a very important point.
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必要化學元素。這是很重要的一點。
02:27
I’d like everyone to understand precisely what the phosphorus issue is.
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我希望讓大家精確的了解磷危機是什麼
02:30
Phosphorus is a key component in several molecules,
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磷是組成許多分子的基本元素
02:34
in many of our molecules of life.
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我們生活中常見的分子化合物都需要它
02:37
Experts in the field will know
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相關領域的專家都知道
02:39
that cellular communication is phosphorus-based --
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磷也是人體細胞之間溝通的基本元素
02:42
phosphorylation, dephosphorylation.
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比如磷酸,比如去磷酸化
磷是組成細胞膜的基本成份, 這個成份叫做磷脂
02:45
Cell membranes are phosphorus-based: These are called phospholipids.
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02:50
The energy in all living things, ATP, is phosphorus-based.
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所有生物的能量來源,如三磷酸腺苷(ATP), 都以磷為基本元素
02:55
And more importantly still, phosphorus is a key component of DNA,
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更重要的一點,磷還是構成DNA的關鍵元素
03:02
something everyone is familiar with, and which is shown in this image.
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這部分大家就比較熟悉了, 我們在這個圖中能看到
03:07
DNA is our genetic heritage.
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DNA即為我們的基因遺傳分子
03:10
It is extremely important, and once again, phosphorus is a key player.
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它是非常重要的存在,而讓我再強調一次 磷是當中的關鍵成份
03:15
Now, where do we find this phosphorus?
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現在讓我們回到問題, 我們可以在從哪裡獲得磷?
03:19
As humans, where do we find it?
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身為人類,我們如何取得磷?
03:22
As I explained earlier,
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我之前說
03:24
plants extract phosphorus from the soil, through water.
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植物從土壤和水當中獲得磷
03:29
So, we humans get it from the things we eat:
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同樣的道理,我們人類也從食物裡獲得磷
03:32
plants, vegetables, fruits,
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從作物、蔬菜、水果
03:35
and also from eggs, meat and milk.
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以及蛋、肉和牛奶
03:38
It’s true that some humans eat better than others.
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那個「吃得比別人好的人,
03:41
Some are happier than others.
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也比其他人快樂」的說法其實是正確的
03:44
And now, looking at this picture, which speaks for itself,
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現在看看這張圖,我們很輕易能看到
03:49
we see modern agriculture,
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現代的農業耕作方式
03:50
which I also refer to as intensive agriculture.
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我稱它為集約的農耕方式
03:54
Intensive agriculture is based on the use of chemical fertilizers.
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能施行集約農耕的前提,則是使用化學肥料
03:58
Without them, we would not manage to produce enough
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不用化學肥料,我們就無法達到那麼高的生產
04:01
to feed the world's population.
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以滿足世界人口的食物需求
04:04
Speaking of humans, there are currently 7 billion of us on Earth.
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提到人類總數,目前地球總人口約七十億人
04:08
In less than 40 years, there will be 9 billion of us.
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而在未來四十年內, 人類人口會增加到九十億人
04:11
And the question is a simple one: Do we have enough phosphorus
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這裡我們面臨的問題是簡單直接的: 我們有足夠的磷嗎?
04:15
to feed our future generations?
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能滿足未來的人口需求嗎?
04:19
So, in order to understand these issues, where do we find our phosphorus?
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為了能更進一步了解這個議題 讓我們來看看,我們能從哪裡獲得磷?
04:23
Let me explain.
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我將對大家說明
04:24
But first, let’s just suppose
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首先,我們假設
04:27
that we are using 100 percent of a given dose of phosphorus.
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這裡有100%的磷肥料,我們將它投給作物
04:33
Only 15 percent of this 100 percent goes to the plant. Eighty-five percent is lost.
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這100%的磷當中,只有15%會被作物吸收 其實85%會流失
04:42
It goes into the soil, ending its journey in the lakes,
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這85%會殘留在土壤裡, 最後順著雨水流入湖中
04:45
resulting in lakes with extra phosphorus, which leads to the blue algae problem.
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於是湖擁有過量的磷, 最後導致藍藻問題
04:49
So, you’ll see there’s a problem here, something that is illogical.
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所以你可以看到問題在哪了, 這過程中有什麼不符邏輯
04:53
A hundred percent of the phosphorus is used, but only 15 percent goes to the plant.
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我們用了100%的磷, 但作物只吸收了15%
04:57
You’re going to tell me it’s wasteful.
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你會說,這樣好浪費啊
05:00
Yes, it is. What is worse is that it is very expensive.
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是的,沒錯。 而更糟的是,這樣不但浪費,還很花錢
05:04
Nobody wants to throw their money out the window,
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沒有人想把錢白白丟出窗外
05:07
but unfortunately that's what is happening here.
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但很不幸的, 這就是我們使用磷的情況
05:10
Eighty percent of each dose of phosphorus is lost.
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每一次的投劑中,80%的磷都被浪費掉了
05:15
Modern agriculture depends on phosphorus.
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磷是決定現代農耕方式的關鍵元素
05:20
And because in order to get 15 percent of it to the plant, all the rest is lost,
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但就因為一份投劑只能讓作物吸收15%, 其他的都浪費掉
05:25
we have to add more and more.
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我們得不斷增加投劑的份量
05:27
Now, where will we get this phosphorus from?
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那麼,我們又是從哪裡得到磷肥料的來源?
05:31
Basically, we get it out of mines.
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基本上來自於礦產
05:34
This is the cover of an extraordinary article
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這是一篇相得出色的論文的封面
05:37
published in Nature in 2009,
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該論文發表於2009年
05:39
which really launched the discussion about the phosphorus crisis.
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它認真提出了磷危機這個議題
05:42
Phosphorus, a nutrient essential to life, which is becoming increasingly scarce,
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磷,我們生活中必要的養分 正變得越來越稀少
05:47
yet nobody is talking about it.
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但沒有人注意到這個問題
05:49
And everyone agrees: Politicians and scientists are in agreement
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但是所有人都認同它的確在發生 政治家和科學家都同意
05:55
that we are headed for a phosphorus crisis.
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我們正面臨磷的危機
05:57
What you are seeing here is an open-pit mine in the U.S.,
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這裡你看到的是 美國的一處露天壙坑
06:00
and to give you an idea of the dimensions of this mine,
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這個礦坑有多大呢?
06:04
if you look in the top right-hand corner, the little crane you can see,
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請看右上角,你能看到一個小小的起重機
06:07
that is a giant crane.
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這起重機實際上是很巨大的
06:09
So that really puts it into perspective.
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這樣我們能了解這個礦坑有多大了吧
06:12
So, we get phosphorus from mines.
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現在我們知道我們的磷 是從礦脈開採獲得的
06:14
And if I make a comparison with oil,
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如果跟石油做比較的話
06:17
there’s an oil crisis, we talk about it, we talk about global warming,
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我們也面臨石油危機,我們談論這個危機 我們也談論全球暖化的問題
06:21
yet we never mention the phosphorus crisis.
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但目前為止沒人談論磷的危機
06:23
To come back to the oil problem, oil is something we can replace.
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回到石油問題上, 我們可以找到石油的替代能源
06:27
We can use biofuels, or solar power,
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比如生物燃料,或太陽能
06:31
or hydropower, but phosphorus is an essential element,
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或水力發電, 但磷這個必要的元素
06:35
indispensable to life, and we can’t replace it.
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在我們生活中不可或缺的元素, 我們是找不到替代品的
06:41
What is the current state of the world's phosphorus reserves?
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全球的磷存量現在剩下多少了呢?
06:44
This graph gives you a rough idea of where we are today.
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從這張圖中你可以 大概看出來我們目前的情況
06:48
The black line represents predictions for phosphorus reserves.
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黑線代表預測的未來磷存量
06:53
In 2030, we’ll reach the peak.
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2030年時存量會到達巔峰
06:56
By the end of this century, it will all be gone.
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但在本世紀末,這些存量會全耗盡
06:59
The dotted line shows where we are today.
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虛線表示我們目前擁有的存量
07:03
As you can see, they meet in 2030, I’ll be retired by then.
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你們可以看到,這兩條線會在2030年交集 那時候我應該就退休了
07:08
But we are indeed heading for a major crisis,
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但我們現在的確面臨著重大的危機
07:12
and I’d like people to become aware of this problem.
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我希望喚起大家的注意
07:16
Do we have a solution?
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我們有解決方案嗎?
07:18
What are we to do? We are faced with a paradox.
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我們該怎麼做? 這是個矛盾的兩難題
07:22
Less and less phosphorus will be available.
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我們可用的磷會變得越來越少
07:25
By 2050 there will be 9 billion of us,
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到了2050年,世界總人口到達90億
07:28
and according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization,
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而根據聯合國食物與農業組織的統計
07:35
we will need to produce twice as much food in 2050 than we do today.
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2050年時,我們需要食物的量 會變成現在的兩倍
07:39
So, we will have less phosphorus, but we'll need to produce more food.
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到時我們擁有比現在更少的磷 但卻需要生產更多的食物
07:44
What should we do?
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我們該怎麼做?
07:46
It truly is a paradoxical situation.
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這的確是個矛盾的兩難處境
07:49
Do we have a solution, or an alternative
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我們有解決方案嗎?或其他的方式
07:51
which will allow us to optimize phosphorus use?
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能讓我們更有效的使用目前的磷?
07:54
Remember that 80 percent is destined to be lost.
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想想那80%一定會被浪費掉的磷
08:00
The solution I'm offering today is one that has existed for a very long time,
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今天我在這場演講裡提出的解決方案 其實是個存在很久的方法
08:07
even before plants existed on Earth,
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它甚至早在地球存在之前就存在了
08:10
and it's a microscopic mushroom that is very mysterious,
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即使用微蕈生物,一種神祕的微生物
08:13
very simple, and yet also extremely complex.
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它們的構造非常單純,但也非常複雜
08:17
I've been fascinated by this little mushroom for over 16 years now.
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我著迷於這些微蕈生物的世界16年
08:22
It has led me to further my research
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它讓我的研究能更進一步開展
08:26
and to use it as a model for my laboratory research.
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並以它為模型基準, 應用在我的實驗室研究上
08:29
This mushroom exists in symbiosis with the roots.
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這些微蕈是共生的,擁有相同的根
08:33
By symbiosis, I mean a bidirectional and mutually beneficial association
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這裡的共生,然的是雙向互惠,並共同獲利的連結
08:38
which is also called mycorrhiza.
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這個連結的部位我們稱為菌根
08:44
This slide illustrates the elements of a mycorrhiza.
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側邊這張圖說明菌根的組成元素
08:47
You’re looking at the root of wheat,
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這是小麥的根
08:49
one of the world’s most important plants.
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小麥,世界最重要的作物之一
08:53
Normally, a root will find phosphorus all by itself.
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一般的情況下,作物的根會自動尋找磷
08:56
It will go in search of phosphorus,
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它會深入土中尋找磷
08:58
but only within the one millimeter which surrounds it.
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但範圍只限於它周遭一毫米半徑的距離
09:02
Beyond one millimeter, the root is ineffective.
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超過一毫米,根就搜尋不到了
09:05
It cannot go further in its search for phosphorus.
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它沒辦法再延伸範圍去搜尋磷
09:07
Now, imagine this tiny, microscopic mushroom.
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現在,想像一下這些微小的微蕈生物
09:10
It grows much faster,
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它們比作物生長得快
09:12
and is much better designed to seek out phosphorus.
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它們的構造也更適合搜尋磷
09:15
It can go beyond the root’s one-millimeter scope
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它可以超出作物根部的一毫米範圍
09:18
to seek out phosphorus.
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去搜尋更多的磷
09:20
I haven’t invented anything at all;
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以上這些都不是我改良發明的
09:22
it's a biotechnology that has existed for 450 million years.
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這是從45億年前就存在的優秀生物構造
09:26
And over time, this mushroom has evolved and adapted to seek out
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經過時間演化,這些微蕈在搜尋磷上變得更精密
09:30
even the tiniest trace of phosphorus, and to put it to use,
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任何一點細小的磷都能搜尋到, 並能吸收它為己用
09:33
to make it available to the plant.
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也讓它能被作物所用
09:36
What you’re seeing here, in the real world, is a carrot root,
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你在這張圖裡看到的 是現實世界的情況,這是蘿蔔的根
09:41
and the mushroom with its very fine filaments.
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根旁邊是這些微蕈和它們的蕈絲構造
09:43
Looking closer, we can see that this mushroom
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再仔細一點觀察 我們可以看到這些微蕈
09:46
is very gentle in its penetration.
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相當和緩的侵入植物根部
09:48
It will proliferate between the root's cells,
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它在植物的根部細胞間增生
09:52
eventually penetrating a cell
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最後會穿透周遭的細胞
09:55
and starting to form a typical arbuscular structure,
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開始依標準的叢枝架構增殖
10:00
which will considerably increase the exchange interface
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同時和作物間的接口也會跟著增加
10:05
between the plant and the mushroom.
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作物和微蕈的連接會變多
10:08
And it is through this structure that mutual exchanges will occur.
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透過彼此同的連接架構, 它們會建立起互利合作關係
10:11
It’s a win-win trade:
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這是雙贏的互利交換
10:13
I give you phosphorus, and you feed me.
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我為你搜尋磷,而你餵養我
10:15
True symbiosis.
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真正的互利共生
10:20
Now let's add a mycorrhiza plant
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現在我們將這些和微蕈共生的作物
10:23
into the diagram I used earlier.
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放到之前我們參考的圖表來看
10:26
And instead of using a 100 percent dose, I’m going to reduce it to 25 percent.
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之前我們用100%的磷為投劑, 現在我將劑量減為25%
10:31
You’ll see that of this 25 percent, most will benefit the plant,
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你可以看到這25%的劑量多半被作物吸收
10:36
more than 90 percent.
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超過90%以上都被吸收了
10:38
A very small amount of phosphorus will remain in the soil.
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只會有極少部份殘留在土壤裡
10:41
That's completely natural.
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這個解決方法完全符合自然生態
10:45
What's more is that in certain cases, we don't even need to add phosphorus.
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更棒的是,在某些環境下 我們甚至不需要再施化肥
10:49
If you recall the graphs I showed you earlier,
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如果你們還記得之前我展示的圖表
10:51
85 percent of phosphorus is lost in the soil,
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85%的磷流失,殘留在土壤裡
10:55
and the plants are unable to access it.
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作物沒有辦法吸收它
10:58
Even though it is present in the soil, it is in insoluble form.
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就算這些土壤富含磷, 但這些磷是不可溶性的
11:02
The plant is only able to seek out soluble forms.
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作物只能吸收可溶性的磷
11:05
The mushroom is capable of dissolving this insoluble form
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而微蕈能夠溶去這些磷不可溶的部份
11:08
and making it available for the plant to use.
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讓它們能被作物吸收
11:12
To further support my argument, here is a picture that speaks for itself.
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為了更進一步證明我的觀點,請看這張圖
11:15
These are trials in a field of sorghum.
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這是一片試驗田地 種植的作物是高梁
11:19
On the left side, you see the yield produced using conventional agriculture,
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左方是以一般農業方式種植出來的作物產量
11:24
with a 100 percent phosphorus dose.
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施以100%的磷肥料
11:27
On the other side, the dose was reduced to 50 percent,
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另一邊,將磷肥料減為50%
11:30
and just look at the yield.
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請看照片中的作物產量
11:31
With only a half-dose, we achieved a better yield.
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我們只用了一半的磷,但卻得到更多的收穫
11:37
This is to show you that this method works.
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這告訴我們,這樣的方法是可行的
11:42
And in some cases, in Cuba, Mexico and India,
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在我們於古巴、墨西哥和印度的實驗案例中
11:46
the dose can be reduced to 25 percent, and in several other cases,
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磷肥料可以減到25% 在其他案例裡,
11:50
there's no need to add any phosphorus at all,
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甚至能完全不施磷肥料
11:52
because the mushrooms are so well adapted
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因為微蕈演進得非常好
11:54
to finding phosphorus and drawing it from the soil.
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很有效率的從土壤中吸取磷
11:57
This is an example of soy production in Canada.
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這是在加拿大的案例,種植作物是黃豆
12:03
Mycorrhiza was used in one field but not in the other.
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只有其中一座田用了微蕈,其他沒有
12:11
And here, where blue indicates a better yield, and yellow a weaker yield.
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圖中藍色部分代表較高的產量, 黃色部分代表較低的產量
12:20
The black rectangle is the plot
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黑色三角形則標出
12:23
from which the mycorrhiza was added.
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施加微蕈的田地
12:25
In other words, as I already said, I have invented nothing.
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換句話說,就像我之前說過的, 我沒有發明任何新的生物科技
12:29
Mycorrhiza has existed for 450 million years,
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45億年前這些微蕈就存在了
12:32
and it has even helped modern-day plant species to diversify.
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而它依舊能幫助現代的植物適應環境
12:36
So, this it isn't something that is still undergoing lab tests.
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這並不是什麼還在實驗測試階段的研究
12:40
Mycorrhiza exists, it works,
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這些微蕈早就存在於自然界中,並且很有幫助
12:43
it's produced at an industrial scale and commercialized worldwide.
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它能提供全球性的大規模生產和商業機能
12:47
The problem is that people are not aware of it.
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問題在於人們不注重它
12:51
People like food producers and farmers are still not aware of this problem.
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食品生產者和農夫還沒意識到磷的問題
12:55
We have a technology that works,
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我們擁有能解決問題的技術
12:57
and one that, if used correctly, will alleviate some of the pressure
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在這前提下,如果能正確的使用這技術
13:04
we are putting on the world's phosphorus reserves.
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我們能舒緩世界磷存量不足的帶來的壓力
13:09
In conclusion, I am a scientist and a dreamer.
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總而言之,我是名科學家,也是個夢想家
13:14
I'm passionate about this topic.
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我對這個議題充滿熱情
13:16
So if you were to ask me what my retirement dream is,
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如果你要問我的退休夢想是什麼
13:19
which will be at the moment we reach that phosphorus peak,
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那時正好也是我們面臨磷產量高峰的時候
13:22
it would be that we use one label, "Made with mycorrhiza,"
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我的夢想是,那個時候這個標語 會被我們大量使用:「真蕈種植」
13:26
and that my children and grandchildren
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而我的孩子和孫子們
13:29
buy products bearing that label too.
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會去購買貼有「真蕈種植」標語的食品
13:32
Thank you for your attention.
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感謝大家的聆聽
13:33
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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