What's hidden under the Greenland ice sheet? | Kristin Poinar

2,631,508 views ・ 2017-11-06

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譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang
00:12
When was I was 21 years old,
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當我二十一歲時,
00:15
I had all this physics homework.
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我有一堆物理的作業。
00:17
Physics homework requires taking breaks,
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寫物理作業需要休息,
00:20
and Wikipedia was relatively new, so I took a lot of breaks there.
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維基百科當時相對很新, 所以我常在那裡休息。
00:24
I kept going back to the same articles,
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我不斷回去看同樣的文章,
00:26
reading them again and again,
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一而再再而三地閱讀,
00:28
on glaciers, Antarctica and Greenland.
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多半是關於冰河、南極洲、 格林蘭島的文章。
00:33
How cool would it be to visit these places
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如果能造訪這些地方,會有多酷?
00:35
and what would it take to do so?
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要什麼代價才能這麼做?
00:38
Well, here we are
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我們這裡看到的,
00:39
on a repurposed Air Force cargo plane
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是由美國太空總署 重新改裝的空軍運輸機
00:41
operated by NASA
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00:43
flying over the Greenland ice sheet.
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飛過格林蘭的大冰原時 看出去的畫面。
00:46
There's a lot to see here,
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這裡有很多值得看的,
00:48
but there's more that is hidden,
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但還有更多是隱藏的、
00:49
waiting to be uncovered.
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尚待發掘的。
00:52
What the Wikipedia articles didn't tell me
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維基百科的文章沒有告訴我
00:54
is that there's liquid water hidden inside the ice sheet,
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有液態的水隱藏在大冰原的內部,
00:58
because we didn't know that yet.
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因為我們還不知道這一點。
01:02
I did learn on Wikipedia that the Greenland ice sheet is huge,
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不過我的確有從維基百科 學到格林蘭很大,
01:05
the size of Mexico,
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和墨西哥一樣大,
01:06
and its ice from top to bottom is two miles thick.
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冰的厚度,從頂部到底部共兩英哩。
01:10
But it's not just static.
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但它不是靜態的。
01:12
The ice flows like a river downhill towards the ocean.
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冰就像河流一樣, 會流下山,流入海洋。
01:17
As it flows around bends,
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當它流過彎道,
01:19
it deforms and cracks.
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它會變形、破裂。
01:21
I get to study these amazing ice dynamics,
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我得以研究這些驚人的冰動態,
01:24
which are located in one of the most remote physical environments
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它們的所在地, 是地球上現存最偏遠的
01:27
remaining on earth.
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物理環境之一。
01:29
To work in glaciology right now is like getting in on the ground floor
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現在投入研究冰河學,就像是來到
01:33
at Facebook in the 2000s.
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21 世紀初臉書的開端。
01:35
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:37
Our capability to fly airplanes and satellites over the ice sheets
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我們能讓飛機和衛星 飛過大冰原上方的能力,
01:40
is revolutionizing glaciology.
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對冰河學來說是項革新。
01:42
It's just starting to do for science
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它開始對科學產生的作用,
01:44
what the smartphone has done for social media.
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就像智慧手機 對社交媒體產生的作用。
01:47
The satellites are reporting a wealth of observations
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衛星能回報許多觀察資料,
01:50
that are revealing new hidden facts about the ice sheets continuously.
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不斷揭露出許多 關於大冰原的隱藏事實。
01:55
For instance, we have observations of the size of the Greenland ice sheet
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比如,我們有格林蘭大冰原 大小的觀察資料,
01:59
every month going back to 2002.
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從 2002 年開始每個月都有記錄。
02:02
You can look towards the bottom of the screen here
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各位可以看一下螢幕的底端,
02:04
to see the month and the year go forward.
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有相對應的月份和年份。
02:06
You can see that some areas of the ice sheet melt
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可以看到大冰原的一些區域會融化
02:09
or lose ice in the summer.
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或是在夏天時失去冰。
02:11
Other areas experience snowfall
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其他區域則會遇到下雪
02:13
or gain ice back in the winter.
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或是在冬天時重新生成冰。
02:16
This seasonal cycle, though, is eclipsed by an overall rate of mass loss
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不過,這種季節性循環, 與總量損失的速度一比就相形失色,
02:21
that would have stunned a glaciologist 50 years ago.
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五十年前的冰河學家 對此一定會很驚訝。
02:25
We never thought that an ice sheet could lose mass into the ocean this quickly.
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我們從來不會料到,大冰原失量 而流入海洋的速度會這麼快。
02:31
Since these measurements began in 2002,
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從 2002 年開始記錄這些測量值起,
02:33
the ice sheet has lost so much ice
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大冰原已經損失了大量的冰,
02:36
that if that water were piled up on our smallest continent,
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如果把它轉變成的水 堆積在我們最小的大陸上,
02:39
it would drown Australia knee-deep.
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澳洲的水就會淹到膝蓋這麼深了。
02:42
How is this possible?
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這怎麼可能?
02:45
Well, under the ice lies the bedrock.
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在冰底下的是基岩。
02:48
We used radar to image the hills, valleys, mountains and depressions
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針對冰所流經的 山丘、山谷、山岳、窪地,
02:53
that the ice flows over.
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我們用雷達來製作出影像。
02:54
Hidden under the ice sheet are channels the size of the Grand Canyon
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藏在大冰原底下的 是大峽谷這麼大的水道,
02:58
that funnel ice and water off of Greenland and into the ocean.
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將來自格林蘭的冰和水導入海中。
03:04
The reason that radar can reveal the bedrock
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雷達能夠看到基岩的原因,
03:06
is that ice is entirely transparent to radar.
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是因為對雷達而言, 冰是完全透明的。
03:09
You can do an experiment.
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你們可以做個實驗。
03:11
Go home and put an ice cube in the microwave.
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回家,把一個冰塊放到微波爐中。
03:14
It won't melt,
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它不會融化,
03:16
because microwaves, or radar,
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因為微波,或雷達,
03:18
pass straight through the ice without interacting.
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會直接穿透冰,不會有相互作用。
03:22
If you want to melt your ice cube, you have to get it wet,
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若你想要將冰塊融解, 你得把它弄濕,
03:25
because water heats up easily in the microwave.
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因為在微波之下, 水很容易就會加溫。
03:29
That's the whole principle the microwave oven is designed around.
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那就是設計微波爐的原理。
03:32
Radar can see water.
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雷達能看得見水。
03:35
And radar has revealed a vast pool of liquid water
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雷達顯示出一個巨大的液態水水池,
03:38
hidden under my colleague Olivia,
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它就隱藏在我同事奧莉微雅
03:40
seven stories beneath her feet.
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腳下七層樓的位置。
03:43
Here, she's used a pump
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照片中,她在用幫浦
03:44
to bring some of that water back to the ice sheet's surface.
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把一些水抽回到大冰原的表面上。
03:47
Just six years ago, we had no idea this glacier aquifer existed.
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六年前,我們甚至不知道 有這個冰河含水層存在。
03:53
The aquifer formed
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含水層形成的原因,
03:55
when snow melts in the summer sun
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是夏天太陽照射導致融雪,
03:57
and trickles downward.
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融雪再向下流。
03:59
It puddles up in huge pools.
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它積成大池子。
04:02
From there, the snow acts as an igloo,
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在那裡,雪的作用就像圓頂冰屋,
04:05
insulating this water from the cold and the wind above.
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把這地下水和上面的 嚴寒和寒風隔離開。
04:09
So the water can stay hidden in the ice sheet
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因此,水可以繼續 以液態的形式隱藏在
04:11
in liquid form year after year.
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大冰原之下,一年又一年繼續下去。
04:14
The question is, what happens next?
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問題是,接下會發生什麼事?
04:17
Does the water stay there forever?
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水就會永遠留在那裡嗎?
04:19
It could.
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有可能。
04:20
Or does it find a way out to reach the global ocean?
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或是水會找到出路, 進入到全球海洋中?
04:24
One possible way for the water to reach the bedrock
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水要到達基岩,再從那裡到達海洋,
04:27
and from there the ocean
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其中的途徑之一,
04:29
is a crevasse, or a crack in the ice.
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就是冰隙,或是冰的裂縫。
04:32
When cracks fill with water,
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當裂縫充滿了水,
04:34
the weight of the water forces them deeper and deeper.
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水的重量會迫使裂縫不斷加深。
04:37
This is how fracking works
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這就是壓裂法
04:39
to extract natural gas from deep within the earth.
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從地球深處取得天然瓦斯的方式。
04:42
Pressurized fluids fracture rocks.
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加壓的液體會使岩石破裂。
04:44
All it takes is a crack to get started.
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只要有一處裂縫做為起頭即可。
04:47
Well, we recently discovered
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我們最近發現,
04:50
that there are cracks available in the Greenland ice sheet
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在格林蘭大冰原上的確有裂縫,
04:54
near this glacier aquifer.
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距離這個冰河含水層很近。
04:56
You can fly over most of the Greenland ice sheet
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你飛過格林蘭大冰原上的大部份地方
04:58
and see nothing,
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可能什麼都看不到,
04:59
no cracks, no features on the surface,
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沒有裂縫、沒有地表特徵,
05:02
but as this helicopter flies towards the coast,
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但當這架直升機飛向海岸,
05:06
the path that water would take on its quest to flow downhill,
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水要流下山丘時可能會走的路徑,
05:09
one crack appears,
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有一個裂縫出現了,
05:11
then another and another.
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接著又一個,又再一個。
05:14
Are these cracks filled with liquid water?
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這些裂縫有充滿了水嗎?
05:17
And if so, how deep do they take that water?
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如果有,它們把水帶到多深的地方?
05:20
Can they take it to the bedrock
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它們能把水帶到基岩
05:21
and the ocean?
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以及海洋嗎?
05:23
To answer these questions,
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若要回答這些問題,
05:24
we need something beyond remote sensing data.
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光是遙感探測資料是不夠的。
05:28
We need numeric models.
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我們需要數值模型。
05:31
I write numeric models that run on supercomputers.
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我寫在超級電腦上執行的數值模型。
05:34
A numeric model is simply a set of equations
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數值模型就是一組方程式,
05:36
that works together to describe something.
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這些方程式結合起來可描述某事物。
05:39
It can be as simple as the next number in a sequence --
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可能很簡單,只是 序列的下一個數字──
05:42
one, three, five, seven --
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1、3、5、7 ──
05:45
or it can be a more complex set of equations
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也可能是一組比較複雜的方程式,
05:47
that predict the future
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根據現在已知條件
05:49
based on known conditions in the present.
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來預測未來。
05:51
In our case, what are the equations for how ice cracks?
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而我們的情況是需要找到 描述冰如何破裂的方程式。
05:56
Well, engineers already have a very good understanding
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工程師已經非常了解
05:59
of how aluminum, steel and plastics fracture under stress.
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在壓力之下,鋁、鋼、 塑膠會如何斷裂。
06:04
It's an important problem in our society.
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那是我們社會中的一個重要問題。
06:07
And it turns out that the engineering equations
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結果發現,工程上用來說明材料
06:10
for how materials fracture
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如何斷裂的方程式,
06:11
are not that different from my physics homework.
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和我的物理作業沒有很大的不同。
06:14
So I borrowed them, adapted them for ice,
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所以我借用了它們,針對冰做改寫,
06:17
and then I had a numeric model for how a crevasse can fracture
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我就得到了一個數值模型, 可以說明當冰隙充滿了
來自含水層的水時,它會如何破裂。
06:20
when filled with water from the aquifer.
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06:24
This is the power of math.
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這就是數學的力量。
06:25
It can help us understand real processes in our world.
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它能協助我們了解 我們世界上的實際情況。
06:29
I'll show you now the results of my numeric model,
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現在來看看,我的數值模型 產出了什麼結果,
06:32
but first I should point out
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但,首先,我要說明一點,
06:34
that the crevasse is about a thousand times narrower than it is deep,
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冰隙的深度和寬度差了千倍,
06:38
so in the main panel here,
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所以在這面大螢幕上,
06:39
we've zoomed in to better see the details.
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我們會放大來看清楚細節。
06:41
You can look to the smaller panel on the right
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你們可以看看右邊比較小的螢幕,
06:43
to see the true scale for how tall and skinny the crevasse is.
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那裡呈現的是冰隙的 真實比例,又高又瘦。
06:48
As the aquifer water flows into the crevasse,
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隨著含水層的水流入裂隙,
06:51
some of it refreezes in the negative 15 degree Celsius ice.
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在攝氏零下 15 度的冰中, 有部份的水會結冰。
06:55
That's about as cold as your kitchen freezer.
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那溫度和你廚房裡的 冰箱溫度一樣低。
06:57
But this loss can be overcome
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但這種水損失是可以被克服的,
06:59
if the flow rate in from the glacier aquifer is high enough.
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如果冰河含水層的水 流速夠高就可以。
07:03
In our case, it is,
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我們遇到的情況就是如此,
07:05
and the aquifer water drives the crevasse all the way to the base of the ice sheet
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含水層的水延著冰隙 一路通到一千公尺以下的
07:09
a thousand meters below.
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大冰原基部。
07:12
From there, it has a clear path to reach the ocean.
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從那裡就有條順暢的路徑 可以直達海洋。
07:16
So the aquifer water is a part
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所以,全球社會所經歷到
07:18
of the three millimeters per year of sea level rise
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海平面每年上升三毫米的現象,
07:22
that we experience as a global society.
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部份原因就是含水層的水。
07:26
But there's more:
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但還不只這樣:
07:27
the aquifer water might be punching above its weight.
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含水層的水可能 還會做超乎預期的事。
07:31
The ice flows in complex ways.
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冰的流動方式很複雜。
07:35
In some places, the ice flows very fast.
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在一些地方,冰的流動非常快。
07:37
There tends to be water at the base of the ice sheet here.
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在這些地方,大冰原的 基部通常就會有水。
07:41
In other places, not so fast.
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在其他地方流速就沒那麼快。
07:43
Usually, there's not water present at the base there.
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那些地方通常就沒有水。
07:46
Now that we know the aquifer water is getting to the base of the ice sheet,
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現在我們已經知道含水層的水 會到達大冰原的基部了,
07:50
the next question is:
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下一個問題就是:
07:52
Is it making the ice itself flow faster into the ocean?
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它是否會讓冰本身 流向海洋的速度更快?
07:58
We're trying to uncover these mysteries hidden inside the Greenland ice sheet
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我們在試著解開這些隱藏在 格林蘭大冰原內的謎題,
08:01
so that we can better plan for the sea level rise it holds.
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這樣我們才能做更好的規劃, 因應它造成的海平面上升。
08:06
The amount of ice that Greenland has lost since 2002
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從 2002 年開始, 格林蘭所喪失的冰量,
08:09
is just a small fraction of what that ice sheet holds.
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相對於大冰原含有的冰量, 是非常微小的。
08:14
Ice sheets are immense, powerful machines that operate on long timescales.
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大冰原是巨大且強大的機器, 在很長的時間尺度上運作。
08:19
In the next 80 years, global sea levels will rise at least 20 centimeters,
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在接下來八十年,全球海平面 會再上升至少 20 公分,
08:24
perhaps as much as one meter,
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甚至有可能到 1 公尺,
08:26
and maybe more.
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也許更高。
08:28
Our understanding of future sea level rise is good,
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我們對於未來海平面 上升的情況算是很了解,
08:31
but our projections have a wide range.
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但我們預測值的範圍很大。
08:34
It's our role as glaciologists and scientists
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我們身為冰河學家和科學家的職責,
08:37
to narrow these uncertainties.
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就是要降低這些不確定性。
08:40
How much sea level rise is coming,
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將來海平面還會上升多少、
08:43
and how fast will it get here?
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上升的速度又有多快?
08:46
We need to know how much and how fast,
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我們需要知道上升多少、上升多快,
08:50
so the world and its communities can plan for the sea level rise that's coming.
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讓世界和其社區能夠針對將來的 海平面上升做出因應計畫。
08:55
Thank you.
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謝謝。
08:56
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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