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譯者: Chiru Chang
審譯者: Ching-Yi Wu
00:12
So the first question is, why do we need to
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今天要談的第一個問題是
00:14
even worry about a pandemic threat?
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我們何必擔心全球大流行的問題?
00:17
What is it that we're concerned about?
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我們到底在擔心些什麼?
00:19
When I say "we," I'm at the Council on Foreign Relations.
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我說的「我們」,是指「外交關係委員會」
00:22
We're concerned in the national security community,
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我們關心國家安全的課題
00:24
and of course in the biology community and the public health community.
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生物的課題,還有公共衛生的課題
00:27
While globalization has increased travel,
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全球化的結果導致
00:29
it's made it necessary that everybody be everywhere,
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交通量大增,許多人隨時隨地
00:32
all the time, all over the world.
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在全世界大量的移動
00:34
And that means that your microbial hitchhikers are moving with you.
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病原體也搭著便車跟著一起到處移動
00:37
So a plague outbreak in Surat, India
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所以一個在印度Surat市爆發的瘟疫
00:39
becomes not an obscure event, but a globalized event --
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不再只是個默默無名的事件,而是一個全球化的事件
00:42
a globalized concern that has changed the risk equation.
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一個改變風險計算式的全球課題
00:45
Katrina showed us
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卡崔娜颶風給我們的教訓是
00:47
that we cannot completely depend on government
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我們不能完全依賴政府
00:49
to have readiness in hand, to be capable of handling things.
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得隨時作好準備,有能力處理事件
00:52
Indeed, an outbreak would be multiple Katrinas at once.
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如果爆發全球大流行,其嚴重性等於好幾個卡崔娜同時發生
00:56
Our big concern at the moment is a virus called H5N1 flu --
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我們目前關注的問題是一個叫作H5N1的流感病毒
00:59
some of you call it bird flu --
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有些人把他叫作禽流感
01:01
which first emerged in southern China, in the mid-1990s,
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這個疾病1990年代中期在中國南部第一次出現
01:04
but we didn't know about it until 1997.
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但是我們直到1997年才知道有這個疾病
01:07
At the end of last Christmas only 13 countries had seen H5N1.
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到去年耶誕節為止只有13個國家有H5N1的案例
01:11
But we're now up to 55 countries in the world,
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但目前已經竄升到55個
01:13
have had this virus emerge,
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有些國家是在禽鳥身上出現
01:15
in either birds, or people or both.
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有些在人身上出現,有些兩者都有
01:18
In the bird outbreaks we now can see
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以禽鳥身上的傳染狀況而言
01:20
that pretty much the whole world has seen this virus
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幾乎全世界都已經出現了這種病毒
01:23
except the Americas.
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除了美洲地區
01:25
And I'll get into why we've so far been spared in a moment.
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我待會兒會談到我們為何還沒被波及
01:29
In domestic birds, especially chickens,
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對已馴化的禽鳥,尤其是雞而言
01:31
it's 100 percent lethal.
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這種疾病的致死率高達100%
01:33
It's one of the most lethal things we've seen
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可說是我們最近幾世紀
01:35
in circulation in the world
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全世界流通的疾病之中
01:37
in any recent centuries.
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致死率最高的疾病之一
01:39
And we've dealt with it by killing off lots and lots and lots of chickens,
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我們靠大量屠殺受感染雞隻來應付此問題
01:42
and unfortunately often not reimbursing the peasant farmers
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不幸的,雞農通常沒有得到補償
01:45
with the result that there's cover-up.
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結果是雞農能夠掩藏就掩藏
01:47
It's also carried on migration patterns
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這個病毒也會跟著季節性遷移的水鳥
01:49
of wild migratory aquatic birds.
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隨著他們的遷徙路徑移動
01:52
There has been this centralized event
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中國境內的程海
01:54
in a place called Lake Chenghai, China.
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就曾經發生過一次集體感染事件
01:56
Two years ago the migrating birds
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兩年前在此處聚集了許多水鳥
01:58
had a multiple event
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適逢病毒發生突變
02:00
where thousands died because of a mutation occurring
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造成上千隻候鳥死亡
02:02
in the virus,
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突變讓病毒產生戲劇性的變化
02:04
which made the species range broaden dramatically.
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結果是遠赴西伯利亞、歐洲、
02:07
So that birds going to Siberia, to Europe, and to Africa
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和非洲的候鳥身上都帶著這個病毒
02:10
carried the virus, which had not previously been possible.
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在這之前,這隻病毒未曾到過這些地方
02:13
We're now seeing outbreaks in human populations --
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目前我們已看到人類發病的案例
02:17
so far, fortunately, small events,
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所幸都是小規模的
02:20
tiny outbreaks, occasional clusters.
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偶發的事件
02:23
The virus has mutated dramatically in the last two years
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不過這個病毒最近兩年已發生非常劇烈的突變
02:26
to form two distinct families, if you will,
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因此在H5N1病毒的演化樹上
02:29
of the H5N1 viral tree
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產生了兩個很不同的群組
02:31
with branches in them,
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而這兩組病毒型式
02:33
and with different attributes that are worrying.
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各有令人擔憂的特性
02:35
So what's concerning us? Well, first of all,
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所以我們究竟在擔心什麼?
02:37
at no time in history have we succeeded in making
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首先,我們從來就沒有成功的
02:40
in a timely fashion, a specific vaccine
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在短時間內,為兩億六千萬人
02:42
for more than 260 million people.
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製作某一種疫苗的紀錄
02:45
It's not going to do us very much good in a global pandemic.
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一旦面臨全球性大流行,我們會非常危險
02:48
You've heard about the vaccine we're stockpiling.
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你們或許已經聽說我們正在囤積疫苗
02:51
But nobody believes it will actually be particularly effective
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但沒有人相信,一旦面臨真正的大爆發
02:53
if we have a real outbreak.
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這點疫苗會有什麼用
02:55
So one thought is:
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曾經有人想過
02:57
after 9/11, when the airports closed,
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說911事件之後機場關閉
02:59
our flu season was delayed by two weeks.
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使得流感季節延後了兩週
03:01
So the thought is, hey, maybe what we should do is just
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所以這個想法就是說,或許我們應該
03:03
immediately -- we hear there is H5N1 spreading from human to human,
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在知道H5N1在人與人間傳染開來
03:07
the virus has mutated to be a human-to-human transmitter --
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即病毒已突變成人對人傳染的型式時
03:09
let's shut down the airports.
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乾脆就直接把機場關閉
03:11
However, huge supercomputer analyses,
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不過,依據超級電腦的分析
03:15
done of the likely effectiveness of this,
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這樣作的效益不大
03:17
show that it won't buy us much time at all.
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只能將爆發的時間延後一些些
03:19
And of course it will be hugely disruptive in preparation plans.
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而且還會阻礙我們的準備工作
03:23
For example, all masks are made in China.
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舉例而言,所有的面罩都在中國製造
03:26
How do you get them mobilized around the world
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一旦關閉了所有的機場
03:28
if you've shut all the airports down?
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我們要如何把這些面罩送到世界各地?
03:30
How do you get the vaccines moved around the world
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我們要如何將疫苗運送到世界各地?
03:32
and the drugs moved, and whatever may or not be available that would work.
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藥品及其他防疫物資也會有同樣問題
03:35
So it turns out that shutting down the airports is counterproductive.
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因此,關閉機場只有反效果
03:39
We're worried because this virus, unlike any other flu
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我們很擔心,因為此病毒跟其他已知
03:42
we've ever studied, can be transmitted by eating raw meat
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流感病毒不同,可以透過食用受到感染的動物
03:46
of the infected animals.
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未煮熟的肉品而感染到病毒
03:48
We've seen transmission to wild cats and domestic cats,
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因此我們已見到病毒以此方式傳染給野貓、
03:51
and now also domestic pet dogs.
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家貓、還有家犬
03:54
And in experimental feedings to rodents and ferrets,
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在囓齒類與貂科動物的餵食實驗中
03:57
we found that the animals exhibit symptoms never seen with flu:
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我們發現這些動物出現一些一般流感未出現的症狀
04:01
seizures, central nervous system disorders, partial paralysis.
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例如痙攣、中央神經系統障礙、局部麻痺等
04:04
This is not your normal garden-variety flu.
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總之,這絕非我們一般所熟悉的流感
04:07
It mimics what we now understand
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這個禽流感跟我們
04:09
about reconstructing the 1918 flu virus,
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重建出的1918年流感傳染模式
04:11
the last great pandemic,
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即上次的全球大流行非常類似
04:13
in that it also jumped directly from birds to people.
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它也是直接從禽鳥傳染給人
04:15
We had evolution over time,
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隨著時間演化
04:17
and this unbelievable mortality rate in human beings:
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出現了令人難以置信的死亡率
04:21
55 percent of people who have become infected
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被H5N1感染的人之中
04:23
with H5N1 have, in fact, succumbed.
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事實上有55%已經死亡
04:27
And we don't have a huge number of people
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而且被感染的人之中
04:29
who got infected and never developed disease.
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大部分都會發病
04:32
In experimental feeding in monkeys
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在猴子的餵食實驗中
04:34
you can see that it actually downregulates
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我們發現這個疾病會
04:36
a specific immune system modulator.
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減低某種特定的免疫系統調節物質
04:38
The result is that what kills you
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因此,導致死亡的其實不是病毒
04:40
is not the virus directly, but your own immune system overreacting, saying,
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而是免疫系統的過度反應,抗議:
04:43
"Whatever this is so foreign I'm going berserk."
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「這東西太詭異,我要抓狂了。」
04:46
The result: most of the deaths
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因此死亡者大部分
04:48
have been in people under 30 years of age,
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是年齡不到30歲的人
04:50
robustly healthy young adults.
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非常健康的年輕成年人
04:53
We have seen human-to-human transmission
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我們見過的人對人傳染
04:55
in at least three clusters --
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已經至少有三群
04:57
fortunately involving very intimate contact,
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所幸都是因極親密的接觸而感染
05:00
still not putting the world at large at any kind of risk.
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因此還不會對世界造成立即的危險
05:03
Alright, so I've got you nervous.
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各位應該開始緊張了吧
05:05
Now you probably assume, well the governments are going to do something.
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各位可能會認為政府應該會有所作為
05:08
And we have spent a lot of money.
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我們也確實花費了許多金錢
05:10
Most of the spending in the Bush administration
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不過布希政府到目前為止的花費
05:12
has actually been more related to the anthrax results
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大部分針對炭疽病
05:16
and bio-terrorism threat.
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和恐怖份子生物攻擊威脅的相關研究
05:18
But a lot of money has been thrown out at the local level and at the federal level
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聯邦政府跟地方政府也花費很多經費
05:21
to look at infectious diseases.
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探討傳染性疾病
05:23
End result: only 15 states
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但結果是只有15個州
05:25
have been certified to be able to do mass distribution
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被判定有能力在大流行時
05:27
of vaccine and drugs in a pandemic.
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大量的分送疫苗和藥品
05:30
Half the states would run out of hospital beds
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在第一個或第二個禮拜之內
05:32
in the first week, maybe two weeks.
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約有一半的州就會發生病床不足的問題
05:34
And 40 states already have an acute nursing shortage.
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40個州已經有護理人員嚴重短缺的問題
05:37
Add on pandemic threat, you're in big trouble.
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加上大流行的威脅,問題就更嚴重了
05:39
So what have people been doing with this money?
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所以到底錢用到哪裡去了?
05:41
Exercises, drills, all over the world.
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全世界到處都在辦理各種演習
05:43
Let's pretend there's a pandemic.
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讓我們假裝現在正在發生全球大流行
05:45
Let's everybody run around and play your role.
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所以大家要趕快去做該做的事
05:47
Main result is that there is tremendous confusion.
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結果就是會非常的混亂
05:50
Most of these people don't actually know what their job will be.
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因為大部分的人不太清楚自己究竟該作什麼
05:53
And the bottom line, major thing that has come through
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追根究底來說,我們沒有重大進展
05:55
in every single drill: nobody knows who's in charge.
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每次演習,沒人知道誰是總指揮
05:58
Nobody knows the chain of command.
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沒人知道指揮系統到底是怎樣
06:00
If it were Los Angeles, is it the mayor, the governor,
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若流感發生在洛杉磯,總指揮到底是市長、州長、
06:03
the President of the United States, the head of Homeland Security?
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美國總統、還是國土安全部部長?
06:06
In fact, the federal government says it's a guy called
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其實,聯邦政府說指揮官是
06:08
the Principle Federal Officer,
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一位「首席聯邦官員」
06:11
who happens to be with TSA.
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而他隸屬「運輸安全管理部」
06:13
The government says
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政府的說法是
06:14
the federal responsibility will basically be
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聯邦政府的責任基本上是要把
06:17
about trying to keep the virus out, which we all know is impossible,
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病毒屏除在境外,我們都知道這是不可能的
06:20
and then to mitigate the impact
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還有就是去減緩大流行
06:22
primarily on our economy.
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對我國的衝擊,尤其是對經濟
06:25
The rest is up to your local community.
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剩下來的全部都要靠你的社區自己想辦法
06:27
Everything is about your town, where you live.
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所以要回歸到你所居住的城鎮
06:30
Well how good a city council you have,
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你的地方議會能不能幹
06:32
how good a mayor you have -- that's who's going to be in charge.
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你的市長能不能幹─因為他要負責當指揮官
06:36
Most local facilities would all be competing
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所有的地方政府將互相競爭
06:38
to try and get their hands on their piece
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設法從聯邦政府庫存中取得
06:40
of the federal stockpile of a drug called Tamiflu,
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一種叫作「克流感」的藥物
06:43
which may or may not be helpful -- I'll get into that --
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這種藥物可能有用但也可能沒用─這個待會會談─
06:45
of available vaccines, and any other treatments,
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還有取得疫苗或是其他任何的醫療物資
06:48
and masks, and anything that's been stockpiled.
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還有口罩,和所有聯邦庫存的防治物資
06:51
And you'll have massive competition.
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想想看所有地方政府在搶,這競爭有多激烈
06:54
Now we did purchase a vaccine, you've probably all heard about it,
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我們確實有購買一種疫苗,你們也大概都聽過
06:56
made by Sanofi-Aventis.
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是由賽諾菲安萬特(Sanofi-Aventis)藥廠製造的
06:58
Unfortunately it's made against the current form of H5N1.
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很不幸的它是針對現在的H5N1病毒製造
07:01
We know the virus will mutate. It will be a different virus.
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我們都知道病毒會突變,突變後就會完全不同
07:04
The vaccine will probably be useless.
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因此這個疫苗可能會完全無效
07:07
So here's where the decisions come in.
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所以決策過程就要處理這些問題
07:09
You're the mayor of your local town.
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你是你們鎮的鎮長
07:11
Let's see, should we order that all pets be kept indoors?
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我們該不該規定鎮民要將所有的寵物關在室內?
07:14
Germany did that when H5N1 appeared in Germany last year,
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去年德國出現H5N1時就這麼作了
07:17
in order to minimize the spread
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目的是要減少家戶之間因為
07:19
between households by household cats, dogs and so on.
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家貓家犬等寵物造成的病毒散播
07:23
What do we do when we don't have any containment rooms
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當我們沒有隔離病房時我們該怎麼辦
07:27
with reverse air that will allow the healthcare workers
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醫護人員如果沒有這種負壓病房的保護
07:29
to take care of patients?
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該如何去照顧病人
07:31
These are in Hong Kong; we have nothing like that here.
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這些負壓病房在香港,我們這裡沒有這種東西
07:33
What about quarantine?
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隔離措施呢?
07:35
During the SARS epidemic in Beijing quarantine did seem to help.
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SARS流行期間北京實施的隔離政策好像有些效果
07:38
We have no uniform policies
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在美國不但沒有
07:40
regarding quarantine across the United States.
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全國統一的隔離政策
07:42
And some states have differential policies, county by county.
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而且各州各郡之間也可能有不同政策
07:46
But what about the no-brainer things? Should we close all the schools?
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最簡單的決定呢?我們該不該停課?
07:49
Well then what about all the workers? They won't go to work
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如果停課是否要一起停班?小孩不上課
07:51
if their kids aren't in school.
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家長也不會來上班
07:53
Encouraging telecommuting? What works?
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鼓勵通訊上班如何?有效嗎?
07:55
Well the British government did a model of telecommuting.
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英國政府曾經作過通訊上班的實驗
07:58
Six weeks they had all people in the banking industry
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六週內,他們要求銀行業者
08:01
pretend a pandemic was underway.
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假裝有大流行,只用通訊的方式上班
08:03
What they found was, the core functions --
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發現有些核心業務無法進行
08:05
you know you still sort of had banks,
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例如還有很多銀行
08:07
but you couldn't get people to put money in the ATM machines.
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還未提供ATM自動存款服務
08:10
Nobody was processing the credit cards.
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沒有人處理信用卡的資訊
08:12
Your insurance payments didn't go through.
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沒有行員處理保險付款以致未能按時支付
08:14
And basically the economy would be in a disaster state of affairs.
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總而言之就是經濟活動會癱瘓
08:17
And that's just office workers, bankers.
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而且這銀行行員只是在室內辦公的人
08:21
We don't know how important hand washing is for flu --
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我們也不知道洗手對流感的防治到底效用如何
08:24
shocking. One assumes it's a good idea to wash your hands a lot.
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很驚人。我們都以為常洗手是好事
08:27
But actually in scientific community there is great debate
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但事實上在科學界這還是個很大的爭議
08:29
about what percentage of flu transmission between people
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到底人與人間的流感有多少比例
08:32
is from sneezing and coughing
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藉著打噴嚏和咳嗽傳染
08:34
and what percentage is on your hands.
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而經手傳染的比例又是如何
08:36
The Institute of Medicine tried to look at the masking question.
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醫學研究中心也曾研究口罩的問題
08:40
Can we figure out a way, since we know we won't have enough masks
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既然無法提供足夠的口罩,有無其他方法?
08:42
because we don't make them in America anymore,
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因為美國已經不製造口罩
08:44
they're all made in China --
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所有的口罩都在中國製造
08:46
do we need N95? A state-of-the-art, top-of-the-line,
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我們是不是一定要用N95?這種最新科技、最高品質
08:49
must-be-fitted-to-your-face mask?
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能完全貼合臉部配戴的口罩
08:52
Or can we get away with some different kinds of masks?
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還是我們可用其他的口罩?
08:55
In the SARS epidemic, we learned in Hong Kong
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在SARS流行期間,我們從香港的經驗得知
08:57
that most of transmission was because
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大部分的感染是因為
08:59
people were removing their masks improperly.
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人們摘除口罩的方式不對
09:01
And their hand got contaminated with the outside of the mask,
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手被口罩外側汙染
09:03
and then they rubbed their nose. Bingo! They got SARS.
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就去揉鼻子,結果就中獎,得到SARS
09:06
It wasn't flying microbes.
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病毒並不是到處飛散的微生物
09:09
If you go online right now, you'll get so much phony-baloney information.
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如果你現在上網查詢可以找到非常多胡扯的訊息
09:12
You'll end up buying -- this is called an N95 mask. Ridiculous.
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你就會去買這個N95口罩。真的是太荒謬了
09:17
We don't actually have a standard
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我們事實上並未替
09:19
for what should be the protective gear for the first responders,
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第一線的工作者
09:22
the people who will actually be there on the front lines.
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訂定保護裝置的標準
09:25
And Tamiflu. You've probably heard of this drug,
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還有你們可能聽過「克流感」這種藥物
09:27
made by Hoffmann-La Roche, patented drug.
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它是由 Hoffmann - La Roche 製造的專利藥品
09:30
There is some indication
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有一些證據顯示
09:32
that it may buy you some time in the midst of an outbreak.
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在流感爆發時這個藥物可能可以拖延一點時間
09:35
Should you take Tamiflu for a long period of time,
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但是如果長期使用克流感
09:37
well, one of the side effects is suicidal ideations.
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它的副作用之一是產生自殺的意念
09:40
A public health survey analyzed the effect
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曾有一個公共衛生的調查研究
09:44
that large-scale Tamiflu use would have,
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大規模使用克流感的效應
09:46
actually shows it counteractive
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結果顯示克流感對公共衛生政策
09:48
to public health measures, making matters worse.
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造成反作用,讓情況更糟
09:51
And here is the other interesting thing:
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還有另一件有趣的事情:
09:53
when a human being ingests Tamiflu, only 20 percent
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人服用克流感之後,只有20%
09:55
is metabolized appropriately
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會被妥善代謝
09:57
to be an active compound in the human being.
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轉化成人體內有效的成分
09:59
The rest turns into a stable compound,
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其餘的會轉化成一個穩定的化合物
10:03
which survives filtration into the water systems,
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通過各種過濾系統進入環境中的水
10:06
thereby exposing the very aquatic birds that would carry flu
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因此有機會進入帶原的水鳥體內
10:09
and providing them a chance
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提供這些病毒
10:11
to breed resistant strains.
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產生抗藥性的機會
10:13
And we now have seen Tamiflu-resistant strains
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我們已經在越南及埃及的
10:16
in both Vietnam in person-to-person transmission,
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人對人傳染案例中觀察到
10:19
and in Egypt in person-to-person transmission.
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對克流感產生抗藥性的病毒
10:21
So I personally think that our life expectancy
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因此我個人認為克流感
10:24
for Tamiflu as an effective drug
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能對抗流感的期限
10:27
is very limited -- very limited indeed.
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應該是非常非常的短暫
10:29
Nevertheless most of the governments
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不過大部分的政府
10:31
have based their whole flu policies
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都是把整個抗流感的政策
10:33
on building stockpiles of Tamiflu.
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建立在大量儲存克流感上
10:35
Russia has actually stockpiled enough
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俄國就已經儲存了足以
10:37
for 95 percent of all Russians.
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供應95%俄國人的藥品
10:39
We've stockpiled enough for 30 percent.
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美國已經儲存足夠供應30%人口的藥量
10:41
When I say enough, that's two weeks worth.
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足夠指的是兩個禮拜的藥量
10:43
And then you're on your own because
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之後就要自己想辦法
10:45
the pandemic is going to last for 18 to 24 months.
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因為全球大流行至少會延續18到24個月
10:47
Some of the poorer countries
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一些經歷過H5N1流行
10:49
that have had the most experience with H5N1 have built up stockpiles;
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卻較貧困的國家,他們所囤積的藥品
10:52
they're already expired. They are already out of date.
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已經超過保存期限, 過期了
10:55
What do we know from 1918,
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我們從1918年大流感
10:57
the last great pandemic?
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得到的教訓是什麼?
10:59
The federal government abdicated most responsibility.
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聯邦政府會推託大部份的責任
11:02
And so we ended up with this wild patchwork of regulations
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因此我們只有美國各地法規的
11:05
all over America.
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拼湊物
11:07
Every city, county, state did their own thing.
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每個市、郡、州各自為政
11:09
And the rules
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各地採用的規範
11:11
and the belief systems were wildly disparate.
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和遵循的原則都大不相同
11:14
In some cases all schools, all churches,
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有些地方是關閉所有的學校、教堂、
11:17
all public venues were closed.
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和所有公共場所
11:19
The pandemic circulated three times in 18 months
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1918年大流感在18個月內出現三波大流行
11:22
in the absence of commercial air travel.
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而且還是在缺乏商用客機的時代背景下
11:24
The second wave was the mutated, super-killer wave.
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其中第二波是突變造成的超級殺手浪潮
11:27
And in the first wave we had enough healthcare workers.
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第一波大流行時我們還有足夠的醫護人員
11:30
But by the time the second wave hit
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但是第二波大流行襲擊時
11:32
it took such a toll among the healthcare workers
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造成醫護人員大量的傷亡
11:35
that we lost most of our doctors and nurses that were on the front lines.
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讓我們失去了大部分的第一線醫師和護士
11:39
Overall we lost 700,000 people.
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在美國共造成70萬人死亡
11:41
The virus was 100 percent lethal to pregnant women
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那隻病毒對於懷孕婦女100%致命
11:44
and we don't actually know why.
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我們至今仍不知道原因
11:46
Most of the death toll was 15 to 40 year-olds --
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大部分的死者是15到40歲的人
11:49
robustly healthy young adults.
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也就是非常健康的年輕成人
11:51
It was likened to the plague.
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它的嚴重性可跟鼠疫相提並論
11:53
We don't actually know how many people died.
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我們並不清楚全球到底死了多少人
11:55
The low-ball estimate is 35 million.
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估計至少有3500萬人
11:58
This was based on European and North American data.
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這是依據歐洲跟北美的資料估算的
12:01
A new study by Chris Murray at Harvard
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哈佛大學的Chris Murray所作的最新研究顯示
12:03
shows that if you look at the databases that were kept
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如果利用英國人在印度
12:05
by the Brits in India,
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所建立的資料來看
12:07
there was a 31-fold greater death rate among the Indians.
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印度人的死亡率是其他地區的31倍
12:11
So there is a strong belief that in places of poverty
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因此有人強烈相信較貧困的地區
12:14
the death toll was far higher.
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死亡人數應該會多出很多
12:16
And that a more likely toll
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因此較可能的死亡人數
12:18
is somewhere in the neighborhood of 80 to 100 million people
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應該是在八千萬到一億人之間
12:20
before we had commercial air travel.
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而且是在還沒有商用航空的狀況下
12:23
So are we ready?
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所以我們準備好了嗎?
12:25
As a nation, no we're not.
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以美國來說,我們還沒準備好
12:27
And I think even those in the leadership
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而且我想即使是領導階層的人
12:29
would say that is the case,
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也會同意我的說法
12:31
that we still have a long ways to go.
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說我們還有很大的進步空間
12:33
So what does that mean for you? Well the first thing is,
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所以你們該怎麼辦?第一件事:
12:35
I wouldn't start building up personal stockpiles of anything --
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我不會開始囤積任何東西
12:38
for yourself, your family, or your employees --
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不管是為你自己、你的家人、或是你的員工
12:42
unless you've really done your homework.
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除非你真正作好了你的功課
12:45
What mask works, what mask doesn't work.
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哪幾種口罩有用? 哪幾種沒有用?
12:47
How many masks do you need?
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你需要多少口罩?
12:49
The Institute of Medicine study felt that
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醫學研究中心的研究結果顯示
12:51
you could not recycle masks.
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你不可以回收口罩再利用
12:53
Well if you think it's going to last 18 months,
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所以如果你想要撐過18個月
12:56
are you going to buy 18 months worth of masks
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你得為家裡的每一份子
12:58
for every single person in your family?
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購買足夠18個月用的口罩嗎?
13:01
We don't know -- again with Tamiflu,
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我們不知道。克流感呢?
13:05
the number one side effect of Tamiflu is
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克流感最主要的副作用
13:07
flu-like symptoms.
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是類流感症狀
13:09
So then how can you tell
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所以如果你們全家
13:11
who in your family has the flu
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都在服用克流感
13:13
if everybody is taking Tamiflu?
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你該如何分辨到底是誰真正得了流感?
13:16
If you expand that out to think of a whole community,
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如果你把這個概念延伸到整個社區
13:19
or all your employees in your company,
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或是公司裡的所有員工
13:22
you begin to realize how limited
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你會了解克流感的效用
13:24
the Tamiflu option might be.
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真的很有限
13:26
Everybody has come up to me and said,
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很多人會跟我說
13:28
well I'll stockpile water or, I'll stockpile food, or what have you.
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那我就儲存水、食物或是其他物資好了
13:32
But really? Do you really have a place
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真的嗎?你真的有空間
13:35
to stockpile 18 months worth of food? Twenty-four months worth of food?
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儲存18個月或是24個月的食物嗎?
13:38
Do you want to view the pandemic threat
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你真的要用1950年代
13:40
the way back in the 1950s
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人們看待民防的方式
13:42
people viewed the civil defense issue,
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看待這個全球大流行嗎?
13:44
and build your own little bomb shelter for pandemic flu?
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真的要為大流感幫自己蓋一間防空洞嗎?
13:47
I don't think that's rational.
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我不認為那叫理性
13:49
I think it's about having to be prepared
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我認為重點不是以個人為單位作準備
13:51
as communities, not as individuals --
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而是要以整個社區
13:53
being prepared as nation,
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整個國家
13:55
being prepared as state, being prepared as town.
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整個州、整個城鎮為單位作準備
13:58
And right now most of the preparedness
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目前大部分的準備
14:00
is deeply flawed.
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都有很大的缺陷
14:02
And I hope I've convinced you of that,
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我希望我已經說服各位
14:04
which means that the real job is go out and
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真正重要的工作是
14:06
say to your local leaders,
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去問各位的地方主管
14:08
and your national leaders,
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去問國家領導人
14:10
"Why haven't you solved these problems?
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「為什麼還沒有解決這些問題?」
14:12
Why are you still thinking that
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「你們為何還認為,」
14:14
the lessons of Katrina do not apply to flu?"
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「卡崔娜颶風的教訓並不適用於流感的防治?」
14:17
And put the pressure where the pressure needs to be put.
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請在該施壓的地方施壓
14:21
But I guess the other thing to add is,
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還有,如果你擁有一個公司
14:23
if you do have employees, and you do have a company,
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有一些員工
14:25
I think you have certain responsibilities
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我認為你有責任
14:28
to demonstrate that you are thinking ahead for them,
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表現出你比他們有遠見
14:30
and you are trying to plan.
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你有在計畫
14:32
At a minimum the British banking plan showed that
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至少英國的銀行實驗顯示
14:36
telecommuting can be helpful.
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遠距通訊有一些幫助
14:38
It probably does reduce exposure
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或許可以減少疾病的暴露
14:40
because people are not coming into the office and coughing on each other,
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因為人們不用到辦公室對彼此咳嗽
14:43
or touching common objects
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或是碰觸共通的物品
14:46
and sharing things via their hands.
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經由接觸造成病毒傳播
14:48
But can you sustain your company that way?
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但是你的公司能否以這種方式持續經營一段時間?
14:52
Well if you have a dot-com, maybe you can.
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如果你有個網站,或許你能
14:55
Otherwise you're in trouble.
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不然你的麻煩就大了
14:58
Happy to take your questions.
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我很樂於回答問題
15:00
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
15:04
Audience member: What factors determine the duration of a pandemic?
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問:哪些因素會決定全球大流行的時程長短?
15:09
Laurie Garret: What factors determine the duration of a pandemic, we don't really know.
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答:哪些因素決定全球大流行的時程,我們不太清楚
15:13
I could give you a bunch of flip, this, that, and the other.
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我列舉出一堆猜測的因素
15:16
But I would say that honestly we don't know.
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但我寧願老實說我們並不清楚
15:19
Clearly the bottom line is
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很顯然的,到最後
15:21
the virus eventually attenuates,
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病毒的效力終將減弱
15:24
and ceases to be a lethal virus to humanity,
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不再是會致人於死的病毒
15:29
and finds other hosts.
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然後去找別的宿主
15:31
But we don't really know how and why that happens.
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但我們不太清楚那如何發生或為什麼會發生
15:33
It's a very complicated ecology.
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那是個非常複雜的生態
15:36
Audience member: What kind of triggers are you looking for?
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問:你的警告指標是什麼?
15:39
You know way more than any of us.
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你在這方面比我們都懂得多很多
15:41
To say ahh, if this happens then we are going to have a pandemic?
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你認為發生了什麼情況,就會有大流行?
15:45
LG: The moment that you see any evidence
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答:如果你看到嚴重的
15:47
of serious human-to-human to transmission.
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人對人傳染的證據
15:50
Not just intimately between family members
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也就是不只是互動親密的家人
15:52
who took care of an ailing sister or brother,
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因為照顧生病者而受到感染
15:56
but a community infected --
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而是社區感染
15:58
spread within a school,
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像是學校中的感染
16:00
spread within a dormitory, something of that nature.
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宿舍中的感染,等等類似的狀況
16:03
Then I think that there is universal agreement
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如果有這種情況發生
16:06
now, at WHO all the way down:
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世界衛生組織從上到下都會同意
16:08
Send out the alert.
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發布警告
16:12
Audience member: Some research has indicated that statins can be helpful.
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問:有些研究顯示藥物statins可能有幫助
16:16
Can you talk about that?
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你能不能談一下?
16:18
LG: Yeah. There is some evidence that taking Lipitor
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答:是的,是有一些證據顯示服用立普妥(Lipitor)
16:20
and other common statins for cholesterol control
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還有其它控制膽固醇用的statins類藥品
16:23
may decrease your vulnerability
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可能可降低流感病毒
16:27
to influenza.
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對你的感染性
16:29
But we do not completely understand why.
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但是我們並不完全了解為什麼
16:32
The mechanism isn't clear.
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它的機制還並不清楚
16:34
And I don't know that there is any way
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我也不知道有無方法
16:39
responsibly for someone to start
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能讓人負責任地
16:42
medicating their children
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將自己的Lipitor
16:44
with their personal supply of Lipitor or something of that nature.
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或同類藥物給自己的小孩服用
16:48
We have absolutely no idea what that would do.
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我們完全不知道會造成什麼效果
16:50
You might be causing some very dangerous outcomes
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有可能會因為讓小孩服用這個藥物
16:53
in your children, doing such a thing.
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造成非常危險的結果
16:56
Audience member: How far along are we in being able to determine
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問:我們到目前為止有沒有辦法
16:58
whether someone is actually carrying, whether somebody has this
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在一個人的症狀完全顯現之前
17:00
before the symptoms are full-blown?
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就知道一個人已經感染或是帶原?
17:02
LG: Right. So I have for a long time said
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答;好的,所以我一直都在倡導
17:05
that what we really needed was a rapid diagnostic.
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說我們真正需要的是快速診斷的方法
17:08
And our Centers for Disease Control
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美國的疾病管制局
17:11
has labeled a test they developed
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將他們發展出來的一種檢測法
17:14
a rapid diagnostic.
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視為快速檢測
17:16
It takes 24 hours in a very highly developed laboratory,
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但得在高階的實驗室裡,由充分訓練的研究人員
17:20
in highly skilled hands.
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進行24小時的分析
17:22
I'm thinking dipstick.
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而我想要的是像試紙這麼簡單的東西
17:24
You could do it to your own kid. It changes color.
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你可以在家裡檢查自己的小孩:如果變色
17:26
It tells you if you have H5N1.
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就表示得了H5N1
17:28
In terms of where we are in science
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以我們目前在科學方面的進展
17:32
with DNA identification capacities and so on,
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目前DNA檢定的能力等等
17:36
it's not that far off.
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作到這麼方便的篩檢並不難
17:38
But we're not there. And there hasn't been the kind of investment to get us there.
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但是我們沒有,也沒有投資這種篩檢的發展
17:43
Audience member: In the 1918 flu I understand that
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問:1918年的流感大流行
17:46
they theorized that there was some attenuation
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我聽說有一個理論是病毒在
17:50
of the virus when it made the leap into humans.
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傳給人體時毒性衰減
17:52
Is that likely, do you think, here?
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這次也會發生類似的情形嗎?
17:54
I mean 100 percent death rate
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我的意思是說100%死亡率
17:58
is pretty severe.
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相當嚴重呢
18:00
LG: Um yeah. So we don't actually know
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答:嗯,其實我們並不清楚
18:04
what the lethality was
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1918年的病毒株在野鳥體內
18:07
of the 1918 strain to wild birds
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還沒傳染給人時
18:11
before it jumped from birds to humans.
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對鳥類的致死率如何
18:13
It's curious that there is no evidence
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奇怪的是,在流感大流行之前
18:15
of mass die-offs of chickens
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在美國找不到
18:17
or household birds across America
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大量雞隻死亡
18:20
before the human pandemic happened.
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或是其他家禽大量死亡的證據
18:22
That may be because those events
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也許是因為這些事件
18:24
were occurring on the other side of the world
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發生在世界其他地方
18:26
where nobody was paying attention.
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而這些地方沒有人注意
18:28
But the virus clearly
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不過病毒很明顯的
18:32
went through one round around the world
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以一種非常溫和的病毒型式
18:34
in a mild enough form
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在世界上繞了一圈
18:36
that the British army in World War I
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以至於第一次世界大戰時,英國陸軍
18:39
actually certified that it was not a threat
429
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認定它不是一個威脅
18:42
and would not affect the outcome of the war.
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不足以影響戰爭的結果
18:45
And after circulating around the world
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但是在它繞行地球一周之後
18:47
came back in a form that was tremendously lethal.
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變成非常致命的品種
18:52
What percentage of infected people were killed by it?
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受到感染的人中有多少百分比因此喪命?
18:55
Again we don't really know for sure.
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我們真的不清楚
18:58
It's clear that if you were malnourished to begin with,
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我們只知道如果你原本就營養不良
19:00
you had a weakened immune system,
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如果你的免疫系統減弱
19:02
you lived in poverty in India or Africa,
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如果你住在印度或非洲的貧民區
19:05
your likelihood of dying was far greater.
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你死亡的機率就大許多
19:08
But we don't really know.
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但是其他的我們真的不清楚
19:11
Audience member: One of the things I've heard is that
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問:我曾經聽說
19:13
the real death cause when you get a flu is the associated pneumonia,
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流感真正致命的是併發的肺炎
19:16
and that a pneumonia vaccine
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而注射肺炎疫苗
19:18
may offer you 50 percent better chance of survival.
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可以增進50%的存活率
19:22
LG: For a long time, researchers in emerging diseases
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答:新興疾病的研究人員長期以來
19:26
were kind of dismissive of the pandemic flu threat
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都對全球大流感這種想法
19:28
on the grounds that
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不以為然,因為
19:30
back in 1918 they didn't have antibiotics.
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1918年我們還沒有抗生素
19:32
And that most people who die of regular flu --
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而且在一般流感流行期間
19:35
which in regular flu years
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死亡的人
19:37
is about 360,000 people worldwide,
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全球大約是36萬人
19:40
most of them senior citizens --
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大部分都是老年人
19:42
and they die not of the flu but because the flu gives an assault to their immune system.
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這些人並不是死於流感,而是因為流感減弱了他們的免疫系統
19:46
And along comes pneumococcus
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於是他們感染肺炎雙球菌
19:48
or another bacteria, streptococcus
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或是其他細菌,如鏈球菌
19:50
and boom, they get a bacterial pneumonia.
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得到細菌性肺炎
19:52
But it turns out that in 1918 that was not the case at all.
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但是1918年那次並非如此
19:55
And so far in the H5N1 cases in people,
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到目前為止H5N1的人類病例中
19:58
similarly bacterial infection
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類似的細菌性感染
20:00
has not been an issue at all.
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根本就微不足道
20:02
It's this absolutely phenomenal disruption of the immune system
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這個病毒的主要致死原因
20:07
that is the key to why people die of this virus.
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是因為免疫系統的嚴重錯亂
20:10
And I would just add
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我還要補充一下
20:12
we saw the same thing with SARS.
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SARS的情況跟H5N1一模一樣
20:14
So what's going on here is your body says,
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都是身體裡頭
20:17
your immune system sends out all its sentinels and says,
465
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免疫系統將所有的哨兵派遣出去,說
20:21
"I don't know what the heck this is.
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「我不知道這是什麼鬼東西,」
20:23
We've never seen anything even remotely like this before."
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「我們從來沒有見過這種樣子的東西。」
20:26
It won't do any good to bring in the sharpshooters
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派出狙擊手沒有用
20:29
because those antibodies aren't here.
469
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因為根本就沒有適用的抗體
20:31
And it won't do any good to bring in the tanks and the artillery
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然後派出坦克車跟砲兵也沒有用
20:34
because those T-cells don't recognize it either.
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因為那些T細胞也不認得它
20:37
So we're going to have to go all-out thermonuclear response,
472
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所以只好動用熱核能武器
20:40
stimulate the total cytokine cascade.
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刺激細胞激素連鎖反應
20:43
The whole immune system swarms into the lungs.
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結果整個免疫系統湧入肺部
20:46
And yes they die, drowning in their own fluids, of pneumonia.
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患者淹沒於體液中,死於肺炎
20:49
But it's not bacterial pneumonia.
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但是這不是細菌性肺炎
20:51
And it's not a pneumonia that would respond to a vaccine.
477
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不是會對疫苗有反應的肺炎
20:55
And I think my time is up. I thank you all for your attention.
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我想我的時間到了,謝謝各位
20:58
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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