David Mackay: A reality check on renewables

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

譯者: herman fu 審譯者: Ho-chung Chou

When the Industrial Revolution started,

工業革命開始時，

埋藏在英國地下的

the amount of carbon sitting underneath Britain in the form of coal

煤礦蘊藏量相等於

was as big as the amount of carbon sitting under Saudi Arabia

沙烏地阿拉伯的石油蘊藏量，

in the form of oil.

This carbon powered the Industrial Revolution,

這些煤炭推動了工業革命，

it put the "Great" in Great Britain,

讓大不列顛夠格稱為「大」國

and led to Britain's temporary world domination.

也讓英國短暫地稱霸世界。

時間來到1918年，英國的煤產量升至頂點，

And then, in 1918, coal production in Britain peaked,

and has declined ever since.

此後便一蹶不振。

其間，英國開始使用北海的

In due course, Britain started using oil and gas from the North Sea,

石油和石油氣，而2000年時，

and in the year 2000,

北海石油與石油氣的產量

oil and gas production from the North Sea also peaked,

也達到了顛峰，現在正在衰退。

and they're now on the decline.

These observations about the finiteness

觀察這些有限的、容易開採的、

of easily accessible, local, secure fossil fuels,

本土的、安全的化石燃料，

讓我們有股衝動要問：「接下來會怎樣？

is a motivation for saying, "Well, what's next?

What is life after fossil fuels going to be like?

化石燃料用盡後，生活會變成怎樣呢？

我們不是應該殫思竭慮

Shouldn't we be thinking hard about how to get off fossil fuels?"

擺脫化石燃料的方法嗎？」

Another motivation, of course, is climate change.

另一個動機，當然是氣候的轉變。

And when people talk about life after fossil fuels

而人們論及化石燃料耗盡後的生活，

and climate change action,

與氣候變化的補救措施時，我認為其中有很多誤解，

I think there's a lot of fluff,

很多表裡不一的廠商，很多誤導的廣告，

a lot of greenwash, a lot of misleading advertising,

and I feel a duty as a physicist to try to guide people around the claptrap

身為物理學家，我有責任

指引群眾避開譁眾取寵的話術陷阱，

and help people understand the actions that really make a difference,

協助群眾瞭解那些能實質改變現狀的行動，

並集中焦點於合情理的想法。

and to focus on ideas that do add up.

Let me illustrate this

讓我以物理學家所謂的

with what physicists call a back-of-envelope calculation.

「信封背面的算式」來闡述此事。

We love back-of-envelope calculations.

我們喜歡「信封背面的算式」。

你提出一條問題，你寫下一些數字，

You ask a question, write down some numbers,

然後你自己找答案。

and get an answer.

這樣未必能作到精準，但可能會讓你發出沉吟之聲：

It may not be very accurate, but it may make you say, "Hmm."

「嗯。」

So here's a question:

那麼問題來了：想像一下，如果

Imagine if we said, "Oh yes, we can get off fossil fuels.

我們說：「是啊，我們能擺脫化石燃料。

We'll use biofuels. Problem solved.

我們會使用生化燃料。問題解決。

Transport ... We don't need oil anymore."

運輸方面，我們不再需要石油了。」

Well, what if we grew the biofuels for a road

好，我們用在路邊種草叢

on the grass verge at the edge of the road?

來培植生化原油如何？

How wide would the verge have to be for that to work out?

需要多少面積的草叢才能成事呢？

OK, so let's put in some numbers.

好，我們來代入一些數字。

Let's have our cars go at 60 miles per hour.

假設我們的汽車以每小時60英哩行駛，

Let's say they do 30 miles per gallon.

假設這些車子每加侖可以行駛30英哩。

That's the European average for new cars.

那是歐洲新車款的平均數。

Let's say the productivity of biofuel plantations

就是說生化燃料製造廠的產量

is 1,200 liters of biofuel per hectare per year.

是每年每平方頃1,200升的生化燃料。

That's true of European biofuels.

這是歐洲生化燃料界的現況。

再假設每輛汽車的間距是80米，

And let's imagine the cars are spaced 80 meters apart from each other,

而且每輛車都是恆動地

and they're perpetually going along this road.

行駛於道路。

道路的長度無所謂，因為道路愈長，

The length of the road doesn't matter,

because the longer the road, the more biofuel plantation.

我們的生化燃料廠就越多。

What do we do with these numbers?

我們怎樣用這些數字運算呢？

好，你們用第一個數字，

Take the first number, divide by the other three, and get eight kilometers.

然後用餘下的三個數字除之，結果是八公里。

那就是答案。

And that's the answer.

那就是各廠房間該有的距離，

That's how wide the plantation would have to be,

given these assumptions.

基於以上的假設。

對此，你可能會說：「嗯，

And maybe that makes you say, "Hmm.

這件事好像沒那麼容易。」

Maybe this isn't going to be quite so easy."

你也許還會想，關於土地面積

And it might make you think,

perhaps there's an issue to do with areas.

可能有某些爭議，而今天這次演說，

And in this talk, I'd like to talk about land areas, and ask:

我想談談土地面積，還要問問各位，

土地面積是否有爭議？答案是有，

Is there an issue about areas?

The answer is going to be yes, but it depends which country you are in.

但需取決於你居住的國家。

So let's start in the United Kingdom,

所以我們就英國開始，

since that's where we are today.

因為那是我們現在住的地方。

The energy consumption of the United Kingdom,

英國的能源消耗，

能源消耗總值，不只是運輸，而是囊括全部，

the total energy consumption -- not just transport, but everything --

我喜歡以燈泡來量化這數字。

I like to quantify it in lightbulbs.

那就像我們每個人全天開着125顆電燈泡，

It's as if we've all got 125 lightbulbs on all the time,

125 kilowatt-hours per day per person

每人每天125千瓦，

is the energy consumption of the UK.

這就是英國的能源消耗量。

So there's 40 lightbulbs' worth for transport,

所以共有40個電燈泡可用於交通，

40 lightbulbs' worth for heating,

40個電燈泡可用於暖氣。

40個電燈泡可用於發電，

and 40 lightbulbs' worth for making electricity,

and other things are relatively small,

比起那三條「大魚」，

compared to those three big fish.

其他的相對來說小得多。

It's actually a bigger footprint if we take into account

其實，如果我們將進口產品的實際耗能也計算進去，

廠房所需的面積會更大

the embodied energy in the stuff we import into our country as well.

而今天這些能源有百分之九十

And 90 percent of this energy, today, still comes from fossil fuels,

仍來自化石燃料，只有百分之十

and 10 percent, only, from other, greener -- possibly greener -- sources,

來自其他較環保的──可能較環保的──資源，

如核能和再生能源。

like nuclear power and renewables.

因此，

So.

That's the UK.

這就是英國的情況，而英國人口密度

The population density of the UK is 250 people per square kilometer.

是每平方公里250人，

現在我要讓你們看看其他國家

I'm now going to show you other countries by these same two measures.

以相同兩種計算方式的結果。

在垂直軸，我會指出

On the vertical axis, I'm going to show you how many lightbulbs --

有多少電燈泡──也就是我們的個人能源消耗量，

what our energy consumption per person is.

我們的個人消耗量是125個電燈泡，

We're at 125 lightbulbs per person,

而那個小藍點表示的是

and that little blue dot there is showing you the land area

of the United Kingdom.

英國的土地面積，

The population density is on the horizontal axis,

而人口密度就在橫線軸，

我們每平方公里有250人。

and we're 250 people per square kilometer.

然後我們以藍色標示加入的歐洲國家，

Let's add European countries in blue,

and you can see there's quite a variety.

你們會發現差異相當明顯。

I should emphasize, both of these axes are logarithmic;

我必須強調，這兩條軸線

都是對數。你們從這條灰線

as you go from one gray bar to the next gray bar,

移到另一條灰線時，差異是10的平方。

you're going up a factor of 10.

Next, let's add Asia in red,

再來，我們用紅色標示加入的亞洲，

the Middle East and North Africa in green,

以綠色標示中東和北非，

sub-Saharan Africa in blue,

以藍色標示次撒哈拉非洲，

black is South America,

黑色是南美洲，

紫色是中美洲，

purple is Central America,

and then in pukey-yellow, we have North America,

然後是噁心的黃色，北美洲、

Australia and New Zealand.

澳洲和新西蘭在此。

You can see the great diversity of population densities

你們可看到，這些地區的人口密度

以及人均消耗量的差異極大。

and of per capita consumptions.

Countries are different from each other.

每國家各有不同之處。

Top left, we have Canada and Australia, with enormous land areas,

左上方是加拿大和澳洲，土地面積龐大，

人均消耗量也極高，

very high per capita consumption -- 200 or 300 lightbulbs per person --

每人200 至300個電燈泡，

and very low population densities.

而人口密度非常低。

Top right: Bahrain has the same energy consumption

右上方的巴林的人平均能量消耗

幾乎和加拿大ㄧ樣。

per person, roughly, as Canada --

over 300 lightbulbs per person,

每人超過300個電燈泡，

but their population density is a factor of 300 times greater,

但是這國家的人口密度高了300倍，

1,000 people per square kilometer.

每平方公里1,000人。

Bottom right: Bangladesh has the same population density as Bahrain,

右下方，孟加拉和巴林人口密度相若，

但人平均消耗量只有百分之ㄧ。

but consumes 100 times less per person.

左下方，嗯，罕無人煙。

Bottom left: well, there's no one.

But there used to be a whole load of people.

但這裏從前有一大群人。

Here's another message from this diagram.

這張圖表還蘊藏了另一則訊息。

I've added on little blue tails behind Sudan, Libya,

我在蘇丹、利比亞、中國、印度、孟加拉

China, India, Bangladesh.

後頭加上了藍色細線。

That's 15 years of progress.

那是15年來的進展。

Where were they 15 years ago, and where are they now?

15年前他們在何方？而今天他們又在哪兒呢？

And the message is,

另一個訊息是，大部分國家都在向右移，

most countries are going to the right, and they're going up.

還會向上移。

上右方，人口密度更高

Up and to the right: bigger population density

and higher per capita consumption.

人均消耗量也更高。

So, we may be off in the top right-hand corner, slightly unusual,

所以，也許我們還沒到最右邊的上面，

有點奇怪的是，英國之後接著

the United Kingdom accompanied by Germany,

德國、日本、南韓、荷蘭，

Japan, South Korea, the Netherlands,

和一連串有點古怪的國家，

and a bunch of other slightly odd countries,

不過很多其他國家正向右上方移動，

but many other countries are coming up and to the right to join us.

準備加入我們。

So we're a picture, if you like,

所以如果要用比喻，我們像是一種未來的寫照，

of what the future energy consumption

might be looking like in other countries, too.

那些國家也可能會步上我們的後塵。

I've also added in this diagram now some pink lines

現在我在圖表上又加了幾條粉紅線，

that go down and to the right.

由左上向右下。

Those are lines of equal power consumption per unit area,

用這幾條線劃分單位土地耗電量相同的區域，

計算單位是每平方米消耗的瓦數。

which I measure in watts per square meter.

So, for example, the middle line there, 0.1 watts per square meter,

所以，舉例來說，中間線那條線，

每平方米0.1瓦，是沙地阿拉伯、挪威、

is the energy consumption per unit area of Saudi Arabia,

墨西哥的單位土地能源消耗，以紫色顯示，

Norway, Mexico in purple, and Bangladesh 15 years ago.

和15年前的孟加拉，

Half of the world's population lives in countries

而世界人口有一半都住在

that are already above that line.

這條線右上方的國家。

The United Kingdom is consuming 1.25 watts per square meter.

英國目前的消耗量是

每平方米1.25瓦。

So is Germany, and Japan is consuming a bit more.

德國亦然，而日本的消耗量稍高。

So, let's now say why this is relevant.

好，我們現在來

說說為何這件事意義重大，為何意義重大？

Why is it relevant?

Well, we can measure renewables in the same units

我們用相同面積使用再生能源來計算，

and other forms of power production in the same units.

或是相同面積使用其他形式製造的能源。

Renewables is one of the leading ideas

我們使用的能源有90%要依賴石化燃料，

for how we could get off our 90 percent fossil-fuel habit.

使用再生能源是劃時代的解決方案之ㄧ。

So here come some renewables.

我們現在有幾種再生能源。

Energy crops deliver half a watt per square meter

歐洲地區的農產能源

in European climates.

每平方米可提供0.5瓦。

What does that mean?

這代表什麼？你們可能猜到答案了，

You might have anticipated that result,

基於我剛剛對你們說過的，

given what I told you about the biofuel plantation a moment ago.

生化燃料製造廠。

好，我們每平方米消耗1.25瓦。

Well, we consume 1.25 watts per square meter.

What this means is,

這代表即使我們將能源農作物

even if you covered the whole of the United Kingdom with energy crops,

種滿整個大英帝國，

you couldn't match today's energy consumption.

也無法滿足現今的能源消耗量。

Wind power produces a bit more -- 2.5 watts per square meter.

風力能源的產值稍高，

每平方米2.5瓦，但那也不過比每平方米1.25瓦

But that's only twice as big as 1.25 watts per square meter.

多ㄧ倍而已。

那表示，如果我們要用風力發電來

So that means if you wanted, literally, to produce total energy consumption

供應全國所有的能源消耗，

in all forms, on average, from wind farms,

我們需要的風力發電廠將占據半個英國。

you need wind farms half the area of the UK.

I've got data to back up all these assertions, by the way.

附帶一提，所有的假設我都有數據支持，

Next, let's look at solar power.

其次，讓我們看看太陽能。

太陽能板，在英國，我們在屋頂設置太陽能板時，

Solar panels, when you put them on a roof,

deliver about 20 watts per square meter in England.

每平方米大約能產生20瓦。

If you really want to get a lot from solar panels,

如果我們真的想大量使用太陽能板發電，

我們得採用傳統的巴伐利亞耕作法，

you need to adopt the traditional Bavarian farming method,

鋪完屋頂後我們要跳下來，把郊野農地也鋪上

where you leap off the roof,

and coat the countryside with solar panels, too.

太陽能板。

Solar parks, because of the gaps between the panels, deliver less.

太陽能電廠，因為板子之間有空隙，

產能較少。太陽能產生的能量

They deliver about 5 watts per square meter of land area.

大約是每平方米的土地 5 瓦。

And here's a solar park in Vermont, with real data,

這是佛蒙特洲ㄧ間太陽能發電廠的實際數據，

每平方米4.2瓦的產能。

delivering 4.2 watts per square meter.

Remember where we are, 1.25 watts per square meter,

記着我們住哪兒，每平方米1.25瓦，

wind farms 2.5, solar parks about five.

風力發電廠2.5瓦，太陽能發電廠大約5瓦。

So whichever of those renewables you pick,

所以，無論如何，無論我們選擇了哪種再生能源，

the message is, whatever mix of those renewables you're using,

我們的啟發是，無論我們如何搭配使用這些再生能源，

如果英國想依賴這些再生能源，

if you want to power the UK on them,

這些再生能源的裝置

you're going to need to cover something like

20 percent or 25 percent of the country

大約會覆蓋英國國土的

百分之 20 或 25。

with those renewables.

我不是在批評這個點子。

I'm not saying that's a bad idea; we just need to understand the numbers.

我們必須了解這些數據。

我絕對不是反對再生能源。我愛再生能源。

I'm absolutely not anti-renewables. I love renewables.

但我也喜歡算術。(眾笑)

But I'm also pro-arithmetic.

(Laughter)

Concentrating solar power in deserts delivers larger powers per unit area,

將太陽能發電裝置集中於沙漠，

產生的能量較高，因為這樣不會有

because you don't have the problem of clouds.

雲層遮蔽的問題，

所以這種設施的產能是每平方米14瓦，

So, this facility delivers 14 watts per square meter;

this one 10 watts per square meter;

這個是每平方米10瓦，

and this one in Spain, 5 watts per square meter.

西班牙的這個是每平方米5瓦。

Being generous to concentrating solar power,

以太陽能做為發電主力，

我認為每平方米20瓦的電力

I think it's perfectly credible it could deliver 20 watts per square meter.

絕對沒問題，所以這是可行的。

So that's nice.

當然，英國沒有任何沙漠。

Of course, Britain doesn't have any deserts.

Yet.

至少目前還沒有。(眾笑)

(Laughter)

So here's a summary so far:

這是至此為止的總結

所有這些再生能源，和我對它們的愛一樣，到處都是。

All renewables, much as I love them, are diffuse.

They all have a small power per unit area,

所有再生能源每單位面積的產能都不高，

and we have to live with that fact.

我們要接受這項事實。

那表示，今天如果我們真的想用再生能源

And that means, if you do want renewables to make a substantial difference

來大幅改變像英國這種國家的

for a country like the United Kingdom

能源消耗量，

on the scale of today's consumption,

you need to be imagining renewable facilities that are country-sized.

我們設想的再生能源設備的規模

是國家級的，不是蓋滿整個國家，

Not the entire country,

而是國土的某個區域，可觀的區域。

but a fraction of the country, a substantial fraction.

There are other options for generating power as well,

還有其他方式能產生能源，

其中不包括化石燃料。

which don't involve fossil fuels.

So there's nuclear power, and on this ordinance survey map,

那就是核能，而這張地形測量圖上，

我們可以看到賽滋威爾 B 核電廠

you can see there's a Sizewell B inside a blue square kilometer.

位於ㄧ片方形的藍色中。

That's one gigawatt in a square kilometer,

意思是一平方公里 10 億瓦，

which works out to 1,000 watts per square meter.

產量達到每平方米1,000瓦。

So by this particular metric,

由於這個度量的產值那麼高，核能

nuclear power isn't as intrusive as renewables.

不像再生能源那麼佔空間。

Of course, other metrics matter, too,

當然，其他的度量也很重要，而核能

and nuclear power has all sorts of popularity problems.

有許多公共安全方面的問題。

But the same goes for renewables as well.

但再生能源亦然。

這是一場激進的諮詢行動現場照片，

Here's a photograph of a consultation exercise in full swing

地點是愛丁堡市郊的ㄧ座小鎮，潘尼庫克，

in the little town of Penicuik just outside Edinburgh,

and you can see the children of Penicuik celebrating

你們可以看到，潘尼庫克的小孩正對著

燃燒的風車高聲歡呼。

the burning of the effigy of the windmill.

So --

所以我們無法滿足所有人，我們必須

(Laughter)

People are anti-everything,

and we've got to keep all the options on the table.

秀出所有的選擇。

What can a country like the UK do on the supply side?

像英國這種國家能提供甚麼選擇呢？

Well, the options are, I'd say, these three:

其實，在我看來，選擇有三：

power renewables,

再生能源，並承認這個產業需要整個國家

and recognizing that they need to be close to country-sized;

傾力支持；其他國家的再生能源，

other people's renewables,

我們能放下身段去找圖表左上方的

so we could go back and talk very politely

to the people in the top left-hand side of the diagram and say,

那些國家，非常有禮貌地說：

「嗯，我們不希望再生能源設備蓋在我們的後園，

"Uh, we don't want renewables in our backyard,

然後，嗯，請容許我們把這些設備蓋在你那裏好嗎？

but, um, please could we put them in yours instead?"

And that's a serious option.

那個選擇需要嚴肅看待。

這是全世界解決這種議題的方法之ㄧ。

It's a way for the world to handle this issue.

So countries like Australia, Russia, Libya, Kazakhstan,

像是澳洲、俄羅斯、利比亞、哈薩克這些國家

could be our best friends for renewable production.

可能是我們再生能源業最好的朋友。

And a third option is nuclear power.

第三個選擇是核能。

So that's some supply-side options.

這幾個可供人民選擇。

In addition to the supply levers that we can push --

除了推行方案供人民選擇之外，

and remember, we need large amounts,

我們要記住，我們需要大量的再生能源，

because at the moment, we get 90 percent of our energy from fossil fuels --

因為此時此刻，

我們有百分之九十的能源來自化石燃料。

in addition to those levers,

除了那些手段之外，我們可以討論出其他方式

we could talk about other ways of solving this issue.

來解決這問題，也就是，我們能降低需求，

Namely, we could reduce demand, and that means reducing population --

而那表示減少人口

I'm not sure how to do that --

─ 我不確定該怎麼做 ─

或減少人均消耗。

or reducing per capita consumption.

So let's talk about three more big levers

所以我們來討論三個規模更大的手段，

that could really help on the consumption side.

對於減少消耗有真正的幫助。

First, transport.

首先是運輸。這裡的幾條物理定律告訴你

Here are the physics principles

that tell you how to reduce the energy consumption of transport.

如何減低運輸過程的能源消耗，

People often say, "Technology can answer everything.

人們通常會說：「對啊，科技能回答任何問題。

我們能製造效率高 100 倍

We can make vehicles that are 100 times more efficient."

的汽車。」這就快要成真了。我讓你們看看，

And that's almost true. Let me show you.

這款典型汽車的能源消耗

The energy consumption of this typical tank here

is 80 kilowatt hours per hundred person kilometers.

是每百人每公里每小時 80 千瓦。

那是一般的歐洲車款。

That's the average European car.

Eighty kilowatt hours.

每小時 80 千瓦。我們能否利用我剛才列舉的

Can we make something 100 times better

那些物理定律來製造效率高一百倍的東西嗎？

by applying the physics principles I just listed?

Yes. Here it is. It's the bicycle.

可以。就是這個。那是款單車。這款單車的效率高了 80 倍，

It's 80 times better in energy consumption,

而且是生化燃料推動的，提煉自維多麥。

and it's powered by biofuel, by Weetabix.

(Laughter)

(眾笑)

And there are other options in between,

其中還有其它選擇，因為車裡的小姐

because maybe the lady in the tank would say,

可能會說：「不行，不行，

"No, that's a lifestyle change. Don't change my lifestyle, please."

那是生活形式的改變，請不要改變我的生活方式。」

好，沒關係，我們可以說服她搭火車，

We could persuade her to take a train, still a lot more efficient than a car,

這還是比開車遠遠有效率，

but that might be a lifestyle change.

不過這可能需要改變生活方式，

或是選擇環保汽車，在左上方。

Or there's the EcoCAR, top-left.

車內的空間容納ㄧ位年輕人綽綽有餘，

It comfortably accommodates one teenager and it's shorter than a traffic cone,

高度比交通錐還矮，

and it's almost as efficient as a bicycle,

車子的效率幾乎和單車一樣，

as long as you drive it at 15 miles per hour.

前提是你以每小時15英哩行駛。

這些選擇中，也許還有更實際的手段

In between, perhaps some more realistic options

改善運輸，可用電動汽車，

on the transport lever are electric vehicles,

所以選項中的電動單車和電動汽車

so electric bikes and electric cars in the middle,

perhaps four times as energy efficient as the standard petrol-powered tank.

它們的效率也許能比汽油驅動的

傳統車輛高出四倍。

Next, there's the heating lever.

再來，還要解決暖氣。

Heating is a third of our energy consumption in Britain,

我們的暖氣設備消耗了英國三分之一的能源，

and quite a lot of that is going into homes

有許多是自宅暖氣。

而其他的用於大樓的室溫加熱和熱水。

and other buildings,

doing space heating and water heating.

So here's a typical crappy British house.

這是一間典型的英式破屋。

這是我家，屋外停的是法拉利。

It's my house, with a Ferrari out front.

(Laughter)

What can we do to it?

我們該怎樣做呢？

Well, the laws of physics are written up there,

嗯，物理定律寫在上面，

which describe how the power consumption for heating

這些定律說明了 ── 你們能控制甚麼東西來

is driven by the things you can control.

影響加熱消耗的能量。

The things you can control are the temperature difference

你們能控制的是溫度差異，

between the inside and the outside.

屋內和屋外的，另外還有這種

There's this remarkable technology called a thermostat:

特別的科技，叫恒溫器。

握着它，向左邊轉，

you grasp it, rotate it to the left,

and your energy consumption in the home will decrease.

你們家的能源消耗會減少。

我試過。真的有用。有些人稱之為生活方式的改變。

I've tried it. It works. Some people call it a lifestyle change.

(Laughter)

你們可以請清洗管道的人過來，察看大樓的管線有沒有破損

You can also get the fluff men in to reduce the leakiness

of your building -- put fluff in the walls, fluff in the roof,

── 將絨毛靠在牆上，將絨毛放在屋頂

還有新裝好的前門，以此類推，

a new front door, and so forth.

令人傷心的事實是，這樣能幫你們省錢。

The sad truth is, this will save you money.

這不傷心，這是好事，令人傷心的事實是，這樣

That's not sad, that's good.

But the sad truth is,

it'll only get about 25 percent of the leakiness of your building

只能減少你們家大樓約四分之一的外洩量。

if you do these things, which are good ideas.

這些都是好主意，如果你們願意執行。

如果你們真的希望這種破房子

If you really want to get a bit closer to Swedish building standards

能更接近瑞典的建築標準，

with a crappy house like this,

you need to be putting external insulation on the building,

你們要在建築物外牆鋪設絕緣體，

as shown by this block of flats in London.

正如這棟倫敦的大樓。

You can also deliver heat more efficiently using heat pumps,

你們還能用熱力泵來大幅提升加熱效率，

which use a smaller bit of high-grade energy like electricity

那就是少用點像電力這種的高階能源，

將熱能由你們的後園轉移到屋內。

to move heat from your garden into your house.

The third demand-side option I want to talk about,

我想說的第三個選擇替代方案，

第三個減少能源消耗的方法是，

the third way to reduce energy consumption is: read your meters.

注意你們的電表。

People talk a lot about smart meters,

大家常常提到智能量錶，

不過你們可以自己來。

but you can do it yourself.

用你們眼睛，放聰明一點，注意你們的電錶，

Use your own eyes and be smart.

Read your meter, and if you're anything like me, it'll change your life.

如果你們跟著我做，能改變自己的生活。

這是我製作的圖表。

Here's a graph I made.

I was writing a book about sustainable energy,

我正在寫ㄧ本有關永續能源的書，

and a friend asked me,

有個朋友問我：「你在家會用多少能源？」

"How much energy do you use at home?"

I was embarrassed; I didn't actually know.

我尷尬不已。我自己也不太清楚。

And so I started reading the meter every week.

所以我開始每星期察看電錶，

這張圖表的上半部是

The old meter readings are shown in the top half of the graph,

就是電表的度數，然後最底下的綠色數字

and then 2007 is shown in green at the bottom.

是 2007 年的度數，我從那時開始

That was when I was reading the meter every week.

每週查看量錶，我的生活因而改變了，

And my life changed,

因為我開始實驗各種方式，

because I started doing experiments and seeing what made a difference.

看看會造成何種差異，我使用的天然氣

My gas consumption plummeted,

大幅度下跌，因為我開始著手

because I started tinkering with the thermostat

修補恆溫裝置的管路，然後我留意加熱的時間，

and the timing on the heating system,

而我的天然氣帳單少了不止一半。

and I knocked more than half off my gas bills.

我的用電量也是類似的情況，

There's a similar story for my electricity consumption,

將一直開着的DVD播放機，音響，

where switching off the DVD players, the stereos,

the computer peripherals that were on all the time,

和電腦周邊設備的電源關掉，

只在需要的時候打開，

and just switching them on when I needed them,

讓我的電費帳單減去三分一。

knocked another third off my electricity bills, too.

所以我們需要循序漸進的計劃，我跟你們說過了

So we need a plan that adds up.

I've described for you six big levers.

六種大動作的手段，我們需要高調進行，因為我們有

We need big action,

because we get 90 percent of our energy from fossil fuels,

九成能源來自化石燃料，

and so you need to push hard on most, if not all, of these levers.

因此你們需要努力推行這些方法，至少要推行大部分。

這些手段大部分都有公共安全的問題，

Most of these levers have popularity problems,

and if there is a lever you don't like the use of,

而如果有哪個手段不合你意，

well, please do bear in mind that means you need even stronger effort

那麼請謹記，這表示你們需要

付出更多的努力來執行其他手段。

on the other levers.

So I'm a strong advocate of having grown-up conversations

我個人大力倡導理性對話，

that are based on numbers and facts.

討論要基於數據和事實，而我想要

And I want to close with this map that just visualizes for you

這地圖做總結，將土地與其他方面的需求

the requirement of land and so forth

具像化給你們看，務求能讓每個人

in order to get just 16 lightbulbs per person

分到 16 個電燈泡，

由這四個有潛力的豐富資源提供。

from four of the big possible sources.

So, if you wanted to get 16 lightbulbs --

如果你們想分到 16 個電燈泡，請記住，

remember, today our total energy consumption is 125 lightbulbs' worth --

現今我們的能源消耗量等同於 125 個電燈泡。

如果你們想讓風力提供16個燈泡，這幅地圖把英國的

if you wanted 16 from wind,

this map visualizes a solution for the UK.

解決方案具象化了。160 座風力發電廠，

It's got 160 wind farms, each 100 square kilometers in size,

每座的大小是100平方公里，

and that would be a twentyfold increase over today's amount of wind.

是今天風力發電廠總面積的

二十倍大。

Nuclear power: to get 16 lightbulbs per person,

核能，如果要每人分到 16 個電燈泡，你們需要

you'd need two gigawatts at each of the purple dots on the map.

讓這張地圖上的每個紫點提供二十億瓦的能源

這個升幅是現今核能發電量的

That's a fourfold increase over today's levels of nuclear power.

四倍之多。

至於生質發電，如果要每人分到 16 個電燈泡，你們需要

Biomass: to get 16 lightbulbs per person,

you'd need a land area something like three and a half Wales' worth,

的土地面積大約是三個半的威爾斯公國，

不是蓋在我們國家，就是蓋在別的國家，

either in our country, or in someone else's country,

possibly Ireland, possibly somewhere else.

可能是愛爾蘭，可能是其他地方。(眾笑)

(Laughter)

And a fourth supply-side option:

而第四個替代供應方案，把別人的沙漠

concentrating solar power in other people's deserts.

的太陽能集中運用，

If you wanted to get 16 lightbulbs' worth,

如果你們想分到 16 個電燈泡的電力，

那我們就要說到右下方

then we're talking about these eight hexagons

down at the bottom right.

這八個六角形。

這些六角形的總面積

The total area of those hexagons is two Greater London's worth

是別人的撒哈拉沙漠，佔地是大倫敦地區的兩倍，

of someone else's Sahara,

and you'll need power lines all the way across Spain and France

你們需要架設輸電纜，橫越西班牙和法國，

才能將電力由薩哈拉沙漠牽到 (英國南方的) 薩里郡。

to bring the power from the Sahara to Surrey.

(Laughter)

We need a plan that adds up.

我們需要循序漸進的方案。

We need to stop shouting and start talking.

我們要停止吵鬧，開始討論，

And if we can have a grown-up conversation,

如果我們的對話夠理性，

make a plan that adds up and get building,

設定一個循序漸進的計劃，開始建設，

maybe this low-carbon revolution will actually be fun.

或許這場低碳革命

到頭來會相當有趣。非常感謝大家的聆聽。

Thank you very much for listening.

(掌聲)

(Applause)